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Russ Certo: "Twister"

Tyler Durden's picture


From Gleacher's Russ Certo


I don’t know where to begin and have quite deliberately been aspiring to not bombard distribution list “noise” of the latest iteration in Greece, Munich, or Washington.  There are so many touch points to discuss that I’ll merely just attempt to address MAJOR themes as I see them.  Micro easy to fill in from here.

Zero jobs and a tar and feather emotion filled CNBC search and destroy mission on who to blame.  FHA suing 12 banks in front of a Presidential speech on job creation.  One judge in Europe can decide Germany’s support for EFSF.  European bourses down near 4% and European peripheral PIIGS spreads 15 bps to 25 bps wider.  And the ZERO jobs report.  What will the Fed or the Administrations response to optics of zero job growth?  Spare you 25 line item reports of global market developments. 

What are the implications of a zero jobs report?  I think it is fair to deduce that some percentage of the investment community will (or has) extrapolated that zero job growth and less than lubricated credit conditions and risk market framework, statistically increase the chances of Fed operation twist.  This concept was born out of Sack at the Fed and has been reinforced in popular press.  Less is more and more is less.  Less jobs mean more Fed help.

What is twist?  We know it is a prospective transformation of Fed balance sheet whereby selling shorter maturity debt to purchase and impact longer term debt.  But is twist QE3?  Who cares?  One thing is for sure that policymakers increasingly don’t want to be pinned or associated with incremental EXPLICIT policy.

Why would you want to semantically define a series of quantitative numbers of failed policies?  QE3, QE99 bottles of beer on the wall.  Does that fan 98 bottles of ineffective policy?  By virtue of having another number does that mean the underestimation framework of a previous number?

In some way the FED washed its hands during Jackson Hole speech when it LINKED monetary policy to fiscal policy or fiscal policy limitations.  Read the speech AGAIN as it is one of the most deliberate speeches I have EVER read from a Fed Chairman and not as surmised by the popular press.  Be a responsible citizen and read it yourself AGAIN.  The word “fiscal” is used 15 more times than “monetary” so what is a Chairman to do?

New bond purchases won’t be fashionable or received well.  Rates and repo are near zero and constrained by lower boundaries.  Fed’s balance sheet is at previous unacceptable levels.  There is less of a penchant for push on string monetary AND fiscal policies.  So, twists, printings and usage of FX swap lines, tweaking on interest on reserves seem to be the order of the day. 

Maybe unprecedented COORDINATION of monetary policy with fiscal policy would be stimulative.  Maybe the Fed lends credence to housing reform mandates that are traditionally under the guise of Congress or quasi-government guaranteed sponsored entities.  Maybe, the Fed twists and co-horts in effort to lend balance sheet to housing affordability goals.  Unconventional. 

In fact, QE3 SHOULD take the form of the Fed having a 3 day offsite teach in with other branches of Government.  COMMUNICATION with stakeholders in government like Congress, Treasury, Comptroller of Currency, FDIC, HUD, leaders of banks, mortgage companies and business interests.  What the market is looking for is COMMUNICATION between stewards.  This alone should encourage resolve, incentives, confidence, less uncertainly, productivity, uniformity and an EASING of collective psyche. 

Forget twists, and other policy minutia which REWARD poor decision making, leadership, and the current lack of communication and, hence, capital flight and investment valuation decisions globally in efforts to seemingly futilely preserve capital.   Hello gold and Swiss Franc!!!!!

The removal of daily debilitating geo-political uncertainty and miss-allocation or inefficient allocation of resources and intellectual capital could be a quantitative easing in and of itself.  Let’s hold that off-site with a few economics books, public speaking books, philosophy books and a calculator. 

In practical terms, the market has quantified the increased probability of a “twist” as it may be the most feasible, acceptable, political outcome of a zero jobs report and just maybe the linkage of prospective housing affordability goals optimized by pegged mortgage rates outcome of twists. 

The market, or better the 2yr/30yr, spread is already doing the work.  Since this time YESTERDAY morning, this spread has flattened by a whopping 25 basis points.  The market anticipates the Fed conclusion to the print, compresses and reaches for yield, and yearns for the efficient preservation of itself from the inefficient previous policy made bottlenecked constructs.

Zero point Zero.



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Fri, 09/02/2011 - 10:44 | 1626443 IMA5U
IMA5U's picture

A twist is also a move performed by the staff at West Garden Spa to make you happy faster

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 10:52 | 1626478 Woodyg
Woodyg's picture

Your happy ending is as fast as 1-2-3 twist?

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 10:58 | 1626510 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

The ball is in Obama's court now. An inspiring jobs speech could be just what gets this economy moving again.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 10:59 | 1626520 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

Ya, let's do the twist... like we did last summer...

Ya, let's do the twist... like we did last year...

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:30 | 1626662 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

Whats Da Bummah Gonna Do Now?

Give more bucks to the Buffet's and the Goldman's

to: "Create Jobs" ???


And BUFFET can complain even more about Not Having To Pay More Taxes.


Don't Hold Your Breath For Fresh Ideas From Da Bummah ...

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:04 | 1626544 IMA5U
IMA5U's picture

you are an idiot if you are serious


i am an idiot if i thought you were serious and am wrong

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 12:53 | 1626960 Cruel Aid
Cruel Aid's picture

Oh he's serious, How about a "All we have to fear...."  FDR moment.

Seriously kidding that is.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:06 | 1626561 Woodyg
Woodyg's picture

The guy in the White House is such an idiot he can't even figure out how to Schedule the damn speech much less what to say. Why not do a speech on JOBS on Labor Day? And get it broadcast on the radio as everyone is driving home with no other major news?

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:08 | 1626571 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

It would only inspire ass hat dummies such as yourself.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:14 | 1626592 Burr's 2nd Shot
Burr's 2nd Shot's picture

Excellent analysis, MDB.  I truly hope you are trading on that premise.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:32 | 1626671 Sgt.Sausage
Sgt.Sausage's picture

Herp, derp "Change", derp.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 12:14 | 1626826 LoneCapitalist
LoneCapitalist's picture

You really are a junk whore arent you?

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:39 | 1626687 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

Game for a turn at "Twister ?" And you need to ask such a question ?

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 10:49 | 1626448 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

Tyler, please stop pushing the CHF, forward contracts on USD/CHF and EUR/CHF are getting too fucking expensive.

Why would somebody buy the CHF anyway? The SNB is sitting on hundreds of billions of fx reserves + We have a real estate bubble (real estate funds showing +/- 4% intraday, wtf??) + UBS and CS (amounting for ~ 800 % of swiss GDP) are on the verge of collapse.

Buy GOLD + SILVER, bitchez.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:51 | 1626741 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

yep, and you are now using tyler's analysis, too!  but to currency traders, the swissie seems pretty strong, for now, and my unenlightened guess is that the SNB is not strong enuf (due to the rel size of the swiss econom?) to deal with it as the other fiats use it in their race to the bottom.

re this essay:

In fact, QE3 SHOULD take the form of the Fed having a 3 day offsite teach in with other branches of Government.

this sermonizing is, unfortunately, and meaning no disrespect to r_cert0, disinformation.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 12:47 | 1626936 Mountainview
Mountainview's picture

The SNB is desperate to make the Swissy weaker...consequence: money measures are exploding...This will hit back in form of a bursting bubble (real estate?) SOONER OR LATER.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 10:48 | 1626462 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Europe markets gettin hammered. Again. Again. 

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:05 | 1626552 IMA5U
IMA5U's picture

europe is getting speed bagged like kim kardashian

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 10:50 | 1626470 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Global central banks have parked more money with the Fed this month than during the Lehman crisis (!) Can you say flight to safety?

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 10:55 | 1626497 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

Gravity dragging worthless fiat $ towards the black hole

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:06 | 1626562 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And everyone thinks theyll print more? Joke is on them. -2 points lower for the dollar means implosion, everyone knows the USD cant go under 70. Theyre painted in a corner in the engine room of the Titanic.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:10 | 1626576 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

+10 to that, Sheepy

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:39 | 1626665 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

Re. everyone knows the USD cant go under 70

Why not SheepDogBro?  Fuel they can manage.  Weren't you around to drive 55?

It could be rationed.

Bonuses and kicking the can is what it's all about.  Bonuses because w/o them, the Praetorian Guard walks and can kicking so more bag holders can get loaded up.

Interesting that your so adamant about this particular issue.  Let's see what happens.

Edit - and you too Caviar.  Not an idealogical dispute, but different perceptions of where the power lies.

I have repect for the two of you, but think you're off on this one.  It's like you're not cynical enough yet. 

Either way, we'll know what's up before the end of the month.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:48 | 1626727 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Or maybe youre too cynical and convinced every quarter they just roll out another couple trillion QE, and thats 'the plan'? I have no problem identifying exactly where the power lies, in Rome. This was all planned way before 2008 to implode the US into a 3rd world, no ones trying to fix anything and all thats left at this point is for them to pull the rug out stand by for false flag events real soon.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 19:48 | 1628498 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

Rome???  You can't mean Silvio.  Do you mean the peadophiles???  They already have their hands full.  OK, they have that corrupt bank, but who doesn't these days?  The peadophiles in Rome are pulling Obummer's string?  Too funny SD1.

Rahm Emanuel and David Axelrod work for the Vatican???

You're getting a major credibility downgrade unless you can a) elaborate or b) return the real SD1 to his avitar.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 10:51 | 1626473 Rogier
Rogier's picture

Could anyone please explain why 'Operation Twist' which doesn't extend the Fed balance sheet helps stock prices go up?

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:14 | 1626583 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Simply apply Underpants Gnome business model.


Step 1- Steal underpants

Step 2- ???

Step 3- PROFIT!!

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 10:52 | 1626479 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

True in the USA. Not europe.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 10:53 | 1626484 Corn1945
Corn1945's picture

I know we are talking about Central Planners who always have to "do something" but I really don't understand how more money printing is going to create jobs.

If anything, more money printing will make things worse.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:01 | 1626533 Woodyg
Woodyg's picture

Especially since the 'more money' only goes to the top .001% - who then use it to buy up governments around the world - as is plainly seen in the USA governing model.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:07 | 1626566 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

unemployment is the fig leaf they use to cover their crimes.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:38 | 1626686 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

buzzsaw cuts to the chase.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 10:54 | 1626490 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Look at that Dax. Getting creamed again. Maybe they should bail out a few more countries.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 10:58 | 1626515 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

Everybody was overweighting the DAX in their Europe exposure, now we see the reverse trade. Additionally the DAX contains a lot of cyclical stocks (manufacturing, automotive, chemicals etc.), no surprise that they get hammered on the prospect of a new recession.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 10:54 | 1626491 adr
adr's picture

Or maybe we sould just close the fed, shut down the stock markets, let all the giant banks fail, let all the insolvent fortune 500 corporations that exist on paper crash and burn, and value our currency on something of real worth.

Then we end welfare, SS, and all government programs letting each locality figure  out how to deal with its citizens. f Detroit can't figure out how to work without turning into Ruwanda then that is not the fault of anyone in Nebraska.

The solution is massive decentralization and the spreading of power.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:10 | 1626578 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

So I guess you are one of the few who have this shit predicted accurately.

Just not in that order.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 10:56 | 1626496 Commander Cody
Commander Cody's picture

Just End the Fed and regain control of the country and currency.  That criminal enterprise must go down!  Hello, CONgress?

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:05 | 1626550 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

And allow the populace to prosper? At the expense of banksters and other vampires? Oh No, they'll keep Teh Fed open, thank you.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 10:58 | 1626518 Woodyg
Woodyg's picture

The Fed's 2 main mandates are Inflation and Full Employment - But in reality the ONLY mandate it follows is Save the TBTF vampire squid banking firms. So the Fed has reneged on it's Public mandates driving a nail in the US economy. Time to follow Chavez and NATIONALIZE!

As a vampire squid from long ago said ' give me control of a Nations Money and I care not who makes their laws.'. And yet we still sit here wrapped in chains wondering why we can't walk.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:01 | 1626530 I Got Worms
I Got Worms's picture

F5, bitches.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:03 | 1626536 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

before Sept20-21 mini-crash. this is getting messy QE3 can't reign in Europe unwind. it is band-aide over festering cancer pustule. ain't gonna work over time. and so one prez or another gets in republican dem what have you and the disease spreads. the only cure is death and reset, unfortunately. you can't have ZIRP ad infinitum policy and expect savings to increase with "0.0" jobs created and true UnN of 20%+. Debt forgivenenss and bankruptcy and zombie institutions will go under.


But WTF do I know?

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:03 | 1626540 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

...with stakeholders in government like Congress, Treasury, Comptroller of Currency, FDIC, HUD, leaders of banks, mortgage companies and business interests. What the market is looking for is COMMUNICATION between stewards. This alone should encourage resolve, incentives, confidence, less uncertainly, productivity, uniformity and an EASING of collective psyche.

"Productivity" in government?  What exactly does government produce?

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:04 | 1626548 Erin_Burnett_fo...
Erin_Burnett_footfetish_society_of_TrentonNJ's picture

Government produced education, healt-care, roads.

Where would you be without any of this - living on the mountain side.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:16 | 1626602 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Our roads are practically impassable, the kids coming out of high school are fukin retards, and health care is an abomination.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:41 | 1626695 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

That's a joke right? 

I like living on the mountain side.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:13 | 1626585 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture


Lots of DEBT

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:05 | 1626559 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

The Stock Market has become a game of Twister.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:06 | 1626563 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Gold is the only thing I understood in your entire article. I'm sure it is very well written but too erudite fo rmy simple American brain. All I know is gold and silver are continuously rising while the dollar loses purchaisng power every day, in every store, gas station, etc.

So gold and silver it is!

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:07 | 1626565 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture


Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:07 | 1626567 strangeglove
strangeglove's picture

Jubilee 7.0 Bitchez!

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:08 | 1626568 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

"What the market is looking for is COMMUNICATION between stewards."

Ahahaha...  "stewards"  Good one...

The FED will do what the FED must do in order to keep the banking system alive and the banksters in control as long as possible.  Everyone and everything else be damned.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:10 | 1626577 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The 'stewards' lol Goebels would be proud! Bunch of damn pirates are who the 'stewards' are!

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:16 | 1626604 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Are there any schools that offer courses in becoming a Community Organizer? I am sure Harvard, Columbia etc offers them but can't seem to find the coursework.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:53 | 1626748 Woodyg
Woodyg's picture

The oilybombers time at BIC prior to his community organizer stint is proof of the real obama. Big monied corporate plant that idiot dems still can't see.

Anyone who votes for either of the 2 corporate/fascist Parties is an idiot.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 12:13 | 1626824 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Judging from your foto.....ya got got the right credentials, Jobe ! Monedas 2011 Community Comedy Organizer

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:17 | 1626610 Undecided
Undecided's picture

Operation twist dun dun dun lol

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:20 | 1626627 Newsboy
Newsboy's picture

No more tricks. Change the rules of the game soon...

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:21 | 1626628 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture



Here's the shocker:  Absolute worst news flow since 2008 and the SPY is down a measly 12% from its 3-yr. highs after a 100% run off the lows.

Dividend stocks like my ED are $1 off its 52-week highs, still paying a dividend 5x larger than a 5-yr. Treasury Bill, and still up $18 from where I bought it in 2009.

Growth stocks like CRM are still up 400% off the lows and trading with a PE ratio of 580, yet the worst news in 3-years can't knock it down.

And don't even get me started on the REITS.....


Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:50 | 1626737 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The real shocker is youre still here trying to mock people after your horrendous calls from 1,200 points higher on the DUH.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 12:38 | 1626904 fuu
fuu's picture

3 year highs HAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

Why not count it from the actual peak in 2000?

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:24 | 1626637 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Wow, even the fucking Ruble is looking sharp against the dolar.  Winning!

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:32 | 1626670 MoneyWise
MoneyWise's picture

"Hello gold and Swiss Franc!!!!!"

Yeah, don't burst my bubble.. Get all those clowns on the

train again. ZH express :)))

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:42 | 1626701 how to trade ar...
how to trade armageddon's picture

Okay maybe it's an academic point, but in my opinion, Twist is not QE. Fed assets aren't increased.

If the Fed sells short-dated Treasurys and buys long-dated Treasurys, the main direct effect is to push others out of long-dated Treasurys and into short-dated Treasurys.

But I prefer though to think of the Fed and Treasury as a unit. Let's face it that's how they act. When Treasury is net selling ~$100b of Treasurys a month, and the Fed is net buying ~$20b a month (to replace maturing agencies), then the Fed/Treasury complex is net selling ~$80b a month of Treasurys (plus ~$20b a month of agencies, in the sense that when the Fed doesn't roll over it increases the net supply).

That money has to come out of other assets, or from the growth of the broad money supply. This is how deficits make the economy spin its wheels going nowhere. Twist just changes the composition of Fed/Treasury net selling, so that it's very heavily weighted to short-dated Treasurys. I don't see why that's such a big diff.

QE is a different story. With QE the Fed absorbs Treasury's net selling. During QE2 the Fed/Treasury complex was net selling only ~$5b a month of Treasurys. There's a much bigger difference between net selling of $5b vs $80b than there is between differing compositions of $80b.


Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:58 | 1626772 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Notice how theyre now trying to quietly downgrade QE3 red Ferrari to a used 1970's VW bug?

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:55 | 1626760 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Wow. I was floored when I learned that the treasury could sell bonds through primary dealers, then those dealers would (were required to) buy what was not sold and sell them to the FED. I was floored. It changed my world to know this was going on. In my understanding of twist, I now learn that shit like this has been normal since at least the 1960s, kiting checks and keeping the money moving to disguise insolvency is old news. I am again floored at how ignorant I have been. I try hard, I am motivated, and just good old fashioned curious and interested. But I am still uncovering stuff. I am not the sharpest tack in the pack, but folks, if I am still uncovering stuff, and worried I am spending too much time doing it; Joe and Joesphine six pack are screwed. They always were. We call them sheep, we diagnose them with disorders, it really isn't fair to them. The rabbit hole runs deep and the implications are enormous to digest.

This can drag on much longer than any of us realize because it has BEEN DRAGGING ON. They are gaming this broken system and will not willingly let it go for a new one for nothing.

Long duct tape, bailing wire, string...

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 15:25 | 1627502 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

Keep a good portion of your portfolio in PMs and PM stocks as financial insurance. And keep your situational awareness high and your head low.

This too will pass.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:55 | 1626763 Fortunes Favor
Fortunes Favor's picture

I believe September may likely be long remembered by precious metal investors everywhere. And here is the reason why...

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 12:00 | 1626782 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Id watch out for PM's, this QE massive hype will disappoint and PM's could take a hard hit.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 11:59 | 1626777 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

Read the speech AGAIN as it is one of the most deliberate speeches I have EVER read from a Fed Chairman and not as surmised by the popular press.

I agree. If ever Bernanke was surrendering and passing the buck to Congress, this speech was it. I still fail to see how Wall Street economists interpreted his words as a fait accompli of QE something. As for Twist, or Torque, (or whatever label you want to put on the process of squeezing grandpa’s life savings out of him), how does selling or reducing repurchases of short term Treasuries support the Fed’s commitment to keep short term interest rates near zero?

Maybe unprecedented COORDINATION of monetary policy with fiscal policy would be stimulative?  Maybe the Fed lends credence to housing reform mandates that are traditionally under the guise of Congress or quasi-government guaranteed sponsored entities? Maybe, the Fed twists and co-horts in effort to lend balance sheet to housing affordability goals?  Unconventional.

I still think it’s damn interesting that Goldman gave no serious credibility to any truly innovative version of what future stimulus might look like in their Post Jackson Hole analysis.  All they could see for miles and miles was more action in the Treasury Securities markets. What vision these masters of the financial universe have. The kind of narrow vision we don’t need. The kind of vision you get looking through holes you’ve drilled through other people’s heads.    

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 12:04 | 1626788 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Wall St at this point knows only 1 thing, 'Hand us more free money' and their vision is looking thru a pinhole in a piece of cardboard.

How all these Wall St morons concluded from Bernanks last TWO faceplants over the last month and a half as being 'OH goody, he said hes for sure handing us vast amounts more free money!' is totaly baffling.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 16:52 | 1627875 Mountainview
Mountainview's picture

The only way out is a new definition of trade policies. No more outsourcing to living standard dumpers.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 12:03 | 1626790 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Yes, it's obvious that "the problem" with the economy is that long-term interest rates are too high and people don't own enough junk bonds.

But have no fear, the Fed will "fix" this.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 12:32 | 1626864 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Socialism is theft, taxes are theft, regulations are theft, fiat is theft, bonds are theft ! Stealing my peanut butter sandwich on two heels of stale, brown bread and an unpeeled, rubbery carrot in a wrinkled brown paper bag is theft ! Monedas 2011 Child Abuse Comedy World Tour

Mon, 09/05/2011 - 08:42 | 1633805 shacai
shacai's picture

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