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Russell Napier On The End Of Supply & Demand, Bank Nationalizations As An Upside Catalyst, And Relative East Vs West Value

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Following up to his must read September 20 presentation from the CLSA economic forum titled "Darkness on the Edge of Town" in which the core topic was the upcoming cliff in the capacity of monetary intervention to impact the economy (something which apparently did not prevent the BOE or the ECB to announce further monetary easing in the subsequent weeks, and which in our opinion will have no impact on the Fed as it eventually sets off on its own merry LSAP path), is the following interview given to Bloomberg TV in which the strategist, previously known for his bold S&P at 400 prediction, in which he defines the new regime as one where supply and demand no longer matter, and all is determined by centrally planning governments across the developed world. The conclusion is that while as a result of failed government policies the developed world stagnates, and the market tumbles, as a result of "earnings not holding up and thus driving stocks lower", it is Asia where any potential growth remains, and as such investors should take their dollar holdings and dump them in India (for example). One last topic was the imminent nationalization of numerous European banks (over and above what happened with Dexia, and the follows up from earlier today, Greek Proton and Danish Max). In some ways, Napier put his finger on today's market pulse when he said that investors will paradoxically like a bank nationalization as it will remove uncertainty if only in the short-term. "It is a very negative long-term thing for Europe" he says, but adds that "speaking to investors at the CLSA economic forum they are so convinced the euro is going to collapse that when it doesn't collapse, the market will probably go up." That said he concludes, "this is a major structural turning point and a bad thing for return on capital in Europe." Oh well, who cares about a year, or a month, or even a week into the future. Career risk is here and it is right now, and one must do precisely whet everyone else does.

 

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Mon, 10/10/2011 - 18:30 | 1759271 reader2010
Mon, 10/10/2011 - 18:53 | 1759327 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Mr Napier is totally misguided on this one to the point where I am left scratching my head. Clearly in a centrally planned utopia (which is where we are headed whether nasty libertarians like it or not), prices will be determined by and according to the preferences of the governing body. Hence the price of the S&P will simply be set at a desirable price, like 10,000. This is the beauty of central planning - the erratic perceptions and preferences of uneducated market participants no longer interfere with objectvie price setting.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:44 | 1759338 hambone
hambone's picture

MDB,

true dat - no more haggling neccessary to match buyers / sellers. 

In our new world the price is the centrally determined price and investors from (confiscated) govenment protected 401ks / IRA's will be (forced) afforded the ground floor opportunity of (mandatory) patriotic aMerican asset (worthless shit) ownership w/ great upside (massive losses to be forcefed)...also known as bank nationalization in less sophisticated countries.

Tax payers and losses to suffered...Match made in heaven.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 21:42 | 1759617 whstlblwr
whstlblwr's picture

Just see video of Herman Cain and stupid words against protestors on Wall Street.

Cain say protestors angry at the successful bankers on Wall Street. He says protest anti American movement to distract the people from failed Obama policy…really?

Maybe you’re trying to distract. Maybe you want to be President of the United States to give more bonus money to CEO’s of failed company. It’s what you believe in, right? Your American form of capitalism. Steal money from employees, but reward poor performance?

http://motherjones.com/politics/2011/05/herman-cain-aquila-lawsuit-2012

The Occupy Wall Street movement protests against Wall Street insiders who fail but get bailed out anyway. How about the Federal Reserve printing DOLLAR to give rich banker buddies so they can keep operating scams against American people?

How about the government let the bankers fuck us and say “here banker you want to fuck American people, go ahead fuck them some more, here take what you want, we’ll help you.” How about that 1% who lie cheat steal but don’t care because Bernanke have their back. Fuck you Herman Cain, you think protest anti-American. Then do you know history America?

Maybe you need education you and Tea Party. Organized Tea Party, LOL!! They are joke too.

Here is information because you too wrapped up in warped view of world. The Boston Tea party happened because the government failed to act on behalf of people, failed to protect people against corporate greed of East India Company.

"The Boston Tea Party was a direct action by colonists in Boston, a town in the British colony of Massachusetts, against the British government and the monopolistic East India Company that controlled all the tea imported into the colonies. On December 16, 1773, after officials in Boston refused to return three shiploads of taxed tea to Britain, a group of colonists boarded the ships and destroyed the tea by throwing it into Boston Harbor."--wikipedia

So fuck you Herman Cain, and Tea Party who keep screaming Occupy Wall Street is from Obama. You're idiots.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 21:50 | 1759668 RebelYell
RebelYell's picture

The KKK has joined us.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 22:15 | 1759707 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Self medicating again, I see.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 22:55 | 1759809 Rich_Lather
Rich_Lather's picture

Neither KKK, or self-medicating. A Chinese national or other foreigner chiming in.

Tue, 10/11/2011 - 01:07 | 1760158 Jack Napier
Jack Napier's picture

Russ always was the black sheep of the family.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 18:58 | 1759341 legal eagle
legal eagle's picture

Careful how you use the word utopia, how about "centrally planned lunacy"?

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:02 | 1759350 The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

MDB:  I gave you a 'greenie' because you always bring a smile to my face...You are sooooo needed...You don't even know your value!!!

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:04 | 1759357 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

HE IS HAMY.

BIGGER, BETTER, AND HAMMIER THAN EVER.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 21:21 | 1759613 rocker
rocker's picture

The best way to help Occupy Wall Street and Hamy.

Boycott the Stock Market. Don't Buy Stocks.    Think of it this way. The HFTs won't have anybody's money to Steal then.

The Stock Market is headed for a Crash anyway due to the financial crisis. Which is not over. Nobody went to Jail for the crisis.

This is a first.  Who are the bankers paying off to stay out of Jail.

Did anybody know that J.P. Morgan donated 4.6 million to N.Y.P.D.

This is proof that money can buy anything. Support Occupy Wall Street.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:03 | 1759351 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I LOVE YOU HAMY!

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:13 | 1759377 reader2010
reader2010's picture

Are you saying perpetual motion machine will work this time around? The stupidity is that they believe they're not a product of creation,  and they're always above the law that governs the universe. 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:29 | 1759403 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

As it happens, I hope that technology does enable us to immortalize some of the economic greats of our times. Just imagine the gift of knowledge we could bestow upon our children by preserving the life of a Paul Krugman or a Joseph Stiglitz. In fact I genuinely believe that if the honourable Lord Keynes were alive today, he would have captured the imagination of a generation with his ideas of fiscal and monetary stimulus and we wouldn't be in this mess in the first place.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:39 | 1759427 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

WE ALL MISSED YOU HAMY!

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:45 | 1759439 legal eagle
legal eagle's picture

OWC is going to be visiting billionaire's homes now.........heard it first on Kudlow?????

First time in a year not hearing news first here on ZH

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:50 | 1759447 knukles
knukles's picture

Bravo, sir.
You have firmly established your position as ZH's newest foil for ridicule.
We all know that it is not nice to make fun of the handicapped, but in your instance sir, that civil courtesy has been waived by God hisself.
 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 20:27 | 1759509 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

So if we ridicule him...

We are doing God's work?

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 20:45 | 1759547 clymer
clymer's picture

I refuse to believe that MDB is serious. I get it! You're trolling, MDB! haha - you almost had me there, you troll, you.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 20:11 | 1759471 Manthong
Manthong's picture

 "preserving..  Paul Krugman or a Joseph Stiglitz."

Sounds good to me.

Where's the formaldehyde?

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 21:15 | 1759604 Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

@ MDB

May we bring back the golfclap for you sir?

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 22:29 | 1759738 Au_Ag_CuPbCu
Au_Ag_CuPbCu's picture

LMFAO.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 23:31 | 1759933 ReadySteadyGo
ReadySteadyGo's picture

Aha!  I see what you did there!  You wascally wabbit you

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 20:23 | 1759500 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Hilarious!

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 21:53 | 1759674 Two Towers AU AG
Two Towers AU AG's picture

Tyler Durden  for President 2012

Hit the Like button (green arrow) if you agree...

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 23:32 | 1759941 ReadySteadyGo
ReadySteadyGo's picture

Um... he's smarter than that.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 22:19 | 1759719 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

But they cannot make it work because over time the price controls fall apart. They fix the price of the burger. Then they have to fix the price of lettuce, tomatoes and ketchup, then the price of fertilizer for the tomatoes then the price of fuel, then the price of....

Damn keynesian central planners always fall to their own conceits.

Tue, 10/11/2011 - 02:25 | 1760227 Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture

USSR already proved central planning doesn't work.  There is no way for the state to determine prices, nor determine what the people want.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 18:54 | 1759330 PaperBugsBurn
PaperBugsBurn's picture

WTF is going in??? Fucking sellouts!!!

Why da fff haven't you Tylers covered this???? All that bitching and there you go... selling out!!!

Officially announced on October 3, 2011, the "Occupy the Federal Reserve" movement called for by pro-freedom pundit Alex Jones and augmented by "End the Fed" movements nationwide, is set to begin this weekend. Despite the implications of large crowds convening upon America's central bank, run by the very corporate-financier interests that have abused Wall Street and stirred up the "Occupy Wall Street" crowds in the first place, not a word of it has been spoken in the Western media - in fact a Google News search for "Occupy the Fed" retrieves the following, cartoonish headline: "Occupy Wall Street finds sympathy in the Fed."

And looky here:

2012 like Herman Cain, a former Federal Reserve chairman, makes such pandering farcical if not entirely offensive to the American people's intelligence. Not only are Americans calling this hubris-filled bluff, but so are foreign pundits overseas.

Some of you morons around here been fawning abt this Cain scumbag.

WTF!!???  You like being slaves or is it that you know once this Ponzi comes down you'll have to get real jobs??

Fight Club? What a joke!!

muahahagahahahaga!!!

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:10 | 1759371 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

The FED is the enabler of all the ills in the economy, the banks should be protested and despised... But never forget the FED is the entity that allows for the creation of reserves they hold, the money they lend out at usurpous interest rates, money they the banks 'print' via fractional reserve lending and now (hilariously) charge fees for the privilege of accessing depositor's such funds!
If the FED were ended, the banks would stand completely on their own... The minute their cash flows seized up no entity would exist to prop up their garbage and would be forced to fight to keep their customer depositors confident in their business.

Ending the FED is a huge step in restoring America to her initial ideals of individual initiative, personal responsibility and freedom to succeed. I support Alex Jones in his efforts to draw attention to the criminal elements within our financial system and central planners of the FOMC that dictate the direction of our financial markets and price fixing the supply of money.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:18 | 1759388 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

And to add to what you just said Baby, ending the Fed would mean a return to sane markets

with equities and commodities being priced on fundamentals, not to mention interest rates

in line with inflation expectation so as not to punish savers and the elderly.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 20:47 | 1759551 clymer
clymer's picture

And I support you, bb. You're still a kid, but run for fucking office, will you? Wake up the world? ..too many still asleep. we're fricken doomed

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 20:15 | 1759468 lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

I support Alex Jones in his efforts to draw attention to the criminal elements within our financial system and central planners of the FOMC "     ..... god bless ALEX JONES & keep him safe.    

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:14 | 1759382 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

The Fed may have bailed out the banks, but it failed to recognize the banks as an instiution are socialopaths.  So they basically resicitated a group of serial killers out to harm us all.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 20:43 | 1759544 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

The Fed IS the TBTF banks... Look at the shareholder of the FRBNY:

JPM, Citi, Chemical Bank, Manufacturers Hanover Trust, Bank of New York, Bank of England, etc.

They bailed themselves out. The Fed knows what they are because they ARE the Fed...

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 20:04 | 1759463 Gohn Galt
Gohn Galt's picture

Herman Cain, both what he says and what he does puts him high up on the "who would you want to fight list". 

As far as the rest, I don't have to depend on the government for food, shelter, electricity, power or protection.  I depend on government to fuck me whenever they can.  If you depend on the government for anything then you are a beggar with no rights (payoffs excluded).  Only by moving forward on your own terms can you shape your destiny.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 21:26 | 1759620 wisefool
wisefool's picture

Not sure if you are supporting him or not, but when you take the complexity out of the tax code, the complexity will be excised from the government and the political classes.

The same position would be true if we removed the other arm of bubble making machine, which is the monetray supply, which Ron Paul would remove.

Anyone who can not see that the fed takes the tax code and puches in the face and vica versa with the alternate arms of OUR government.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 20:19 | 1759490 SwingForce
Mon, 10/10/2011 - 21:37 | 1759648 rocker
rocker's picture

I hope that was Sarcasm SwingForce.  It was made on Aug 14 and Revised on Sept.20.

The S&P has fallen since then.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:04 | 1759359 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

They realized that there is more money to be made in the Military Industrial Complex than collecting tax reciepts.

They don't want your money, they own the printer, so figure out where you stand in the NWO, 4 quarts of oil? wake up.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:36 | 1759423 lsd
Mon, 10/10/2011 - 21:36 | 1759647 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

Chris Hayes: Erin Burnett's Wall Street Coverage 'So Frustrating' (VIDEO)

MSNBC host Chris Hayes was the latest person to take CNN's Erin Burnett to task for her trip to the Occupy Wall Street protests last week.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/10/chris-hayes-erin-burnetts_n_1003176.html 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 23:28 | 1759924 byteshredder
byteshredder's picture

Is Chris Hayes the twin sister of Rachel Maddow?

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 21:37 | 1759481 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Hey how about an article written by a Little Guy? Fuck these assholes who think they know "FINANCE", they don't know shit. That's why the market crashed today, because this douchebag knows what he's talking about, not. FU!http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODlzOyNFXtQ&feature=related

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 18:31 | 1759274 walcott
walcott's picture

complete crockery.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:16 | 1759384 DosZap
DosZap's picture

 In some ways, Napier put his finger on today's market pulse when he said that investors will paradoxically like a bank nationalization as it will remove uncertainty if only in the short-term.

 

Please,define "SHORT TERM".

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 20:17 | 1759483 Atreyu
Atreyu's picture

Until 4pm EST

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 21:08 | 1759592 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

two months

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 21:26 | 1759621 chump666
chump666's picture

like now, week or so of rallies, now overbought.  investors then get slammed with a panic once the rating agencies start downgraded EZ countries one by one, starting with France...those butnuts

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 18:36 | 1759280 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Career risk is here and it is right now, and one must do precisely whet everyone else does.

Nobody ever got fired for buying PCLN (after 2000).

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 18:36 | 1759284 vocational tainee
vocational tainee's picture

Killing fields?

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 18:45 | 1759299 walcott
walcott's picture

operation twist. Double dip. QE Three.

Teletubbie economics.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 18:46 | 1759304 hambone
hambone's picture

How does capitalism die???  Just like Democracy...To thundering market applause!!!

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 18:47 | 1759305 lordbyroniv
lordbyroniv's picture

WOLVERINES !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 18:48 | 1759307 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Wow ! Has everyone finally gone crazy !!!

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 18:48 | 1759311 hambone
hambone's picture

No - just you (ok, and me)

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:46 | 1759438 Hulk
Hulk's picture

and me...(take it to the right people)

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 22:16 | 1759710 Manthong
Manthong's picture

You’re not crazy.. just aware.

In the interview he commented about  “government not liking the prices… exchange controls .. limiting capital outflows..  major swings towards governments intervening in the markets”

It’s what we’ve got today.

Try to get someone to explain how this is not bald-faced Fascism.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 18:50 | 1759316 s2man
s2man's picture

"In a bizarre world, people think nationalization is a good thing"

I liked that line.  I, and probably most here, think of nationalization as another way for the tax payers to bail out failed banks.  It is a bizarre world.

 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 18:51 | 1759320 The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

Capitalism vs. Socialism?  No it's Capitulationism

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 20:27 | 1759508 Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

That was over 100 years ago and Capitalism lost. The battle is between National Socialism and International Socialism.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 20:48 | 1759554 clymer
clymer's picture

so.. between nazi's and those who spawned them?

Tue, 10/11/2011 - 07:37 | 1760438 falak pema
falak pema's picture

sounds like convoluted copulation gone mad...

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 18:56 | 1759334 Manthong
Manthong's picture

They can control supply but they cannot control demand.

When nobody wants their stocks, bonds, currency, houses, products, debt or their line of BS, things change.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 18:56 | 1759335 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

He's dismissing the Euro collapse and doomsday.

Oops.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 18:59 | 1759339 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

It's all irrelevant.   The problem isn't the EuroZone.  It's the debt zone  "ring of fire" [1]

 

[1] http://www.investmentpostcards.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/billgross2...

 

Even if world government solve the PIIGs, they'll eventually still have to address, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and the US.

Can't believe how fucked up the previous generation left it for my generation.

 

 

 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:02 | 1759349 legal eagle
legal eagle's picture

Yes, it is like bailing out the titanic's steam room while the bow is 200 feet in the air, you know that fucker's coming down and when it does.....

Tue, 10/11/2011 - 09:51 | 1760731 UBIGDummy
UBIGDummy's picture

Damm Son,

the stern was the part that was in the air.  Don't you watch titanic before posting such rubbish.

Boiler/steam rooms were centrally located approximatly under the 4 funnel tubes.  You should buy a Netflix subscribtion fool

 

;)

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:06 | 1759353 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

Japan looks ridiculously scary given its demographic trend (decreasing population/less savers).

 

graph:

 

http://www.oftwominds.com/photos10/japan-savings7-10.png

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:21 | 1759394 DosZap
DosZap's picture

DormRoom

Can't believe how fucked up the previous generation left it for my generation.

Young man, when you find out, learn, that it was not JUST the previous generation(and a few of them), that have done this, you will awaken to REALITY.

Your thinking, is FAR too short sided.

Kick back to around 1913 for a starting point.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 20:34 | 1759521 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Youth is wasted on the wrong people...

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:28 | 1759412 The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

DormRoom that graph looks like the model when that Brown Dwarf Black Hole Sun 'thing' supposedly invades our solar system...I guess the stars are aligned!  where's my shovel!!!????

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 20:33 | 1759528 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Just wait until you go full retard greedy and fuck over the next generation after you...

Then they will say the same thing about you, kid...

Tue, 10/11/2011 - 07:36 | 1760437 falak pema
falak pema's picture

That's cynical. Are you suggesting that he fukk his mother to gain revenge and then fukk his daughter to ensure she doesn't fukk him first. What a Borgia you make the world out to be! 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 18:58 | 1759345 Lady Heather...UNCLE
Lady Heather...UNCLE's picture

MillionDollarBonus...I agree with everything you say. You are a voice to heed...no, seriously.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:00 | 1759346 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Asia is good.
I believe brazil is better.
Does anyone know an emerging market etf that has an almost seven percent dividend yield like EWZ?

REAL GROWTH IS OVER IN THE FIRST WORLD AS WE ALL JAPANIFY.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:25 | 1759407 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Top,

looking at it from face value, I agree.

But, I would stick w/Asia, as Brasil has a nasty habit of changing with the wind.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:37 | 1759424 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I THINK AND HOPE THEY ARE ALL GROWN UP NOW.
WITH A PE OF 8 AND A DIVIDEND YIELD NEAR SEVEN PERCENT I THINK THE RISK IS MISPRICED IN MY FAVOR.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 20:01 | 1759459 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

The problem and I will give you this . . . the ONLY problem with Brazil, is no one at this moment has ANY idea what production rate can be achieved from those offshore oil reserves.  They are down hyper deep and the rock permeability is utterly unknown.  The liquid may simply flow slowly.

Slow is lethal when everything else falls fast.  Brazil has 180 million people who would not be pleased when a lot of promised benefits to be funded by flow rates that may not be achieved . . . disappear.  Simply that.  The benefits are budgeted for revenue that might not appear.

Bottom line, let's see the flow rates from the pre-salt before we pile into EWZ.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:04 | 1759354 GottaBKiddn
GottaBKiddn's picture

Absolutely correct. Nationalization is the new structure. It prevents the banks from collapsing into pieces that can be picked up by others to start new banks with which to start fresh. It centrallizes control over not only the banking sector, but the entire economy. It avoids the necessity of devaluing the currency (QE...) by simiply pacing the burden of bank debt entirely on the backs of unwitting taxpayers. It prevents the collapse of the equities markets so that all remaining wealth can be siphoned from the few investors remaining. The banking community will not complain, since they will still have their jobs, albeit less lucrative. And best of all, the government becomes all the more powerful as "our new benefactor", here to save the day.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:04 | 1759356 chump666
chump666's picture

But....With massive Yuan selling en masse a week or so back and China ready to implode.  I would NOT be buying Asian currencies mid term.

As for India, a corrupt business system that is struggling with inflation mixed with geopolitical problems from Pakistan to China.

The point is equities will not reach new highs for 2011 and begin to turn into lower ranges end year to 2012

There is going to be broader volatility into 2012.  Social digression through out Europe will keep indexes volatile, same in the States, China will just crash.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:13 | 1759379 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I WOULDNT BUY CHINA OR INDIA.
I WOULD CONSIDER OTHER EMERGING ASIA BUT THEY HAVE ALREADY BEEN DISCOVERED AND ARE TOO POPULAR.

SEVEN PERCENT DIVIDEND YIELD IN BRAZIL, EWZ

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:22 | 1759399 chump666
chump666's picture

I would buy (if i had a spare buck) HK property once their market tanks to hell.  Asia is going down.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:24 | 1759402 SilverDOG
SilverDOG's picture

Just where will you confidently hold, mid term.

Silver Bitchez!

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:06 | 1759363 legal eagle
legal eagle's picture

If all we get is Japan, I can live with that.  It has been 30 years, people have gone on living.  It has not been awful for the average Japanese.  I fear it will be something greater and more sinister.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:06 | 1759365 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

<<The newspapers were more enthusiastic. They widely reported the job numbers with approval and hope. Stabilising prices and new jobs mean that the odds of a ‘double-dip’ recession diminished, they say. But so what? Recession is not the problem. Recession refers to GDP growth. It measures “more” or “less”. An expanding economy uses more resources and produces more stuff. A shrinking economy – one in recession – produces less stuff.

But what if the real problem had less to do with how much stuff we have and more to do with what kind of stuff it is? If you have another car or another refrigerator, are you better off? What about another gall bladder operation or another war? Or maybe you’d like another gadget from China or another helping of dessert?

You would have more stuff. Would you be better off? Not necessarily.>>

Bill Bonner over at The Daily Reckoning hits the nail on the head!

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:06 | 1759366 Skid Marks
Skid Marks's picture

Did he say anything we didn't already know?

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:07 | 1759370 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

This rally has been lame. Still under 1200 on the S&P. lulz

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:19 | 1759392 chump666
chump666's picture

It is lame.  We get a week meltup and everyone thinks we are going into a bull run.  Anyone who cr*ps on about Goverments will support prices BS will get fleeced.  This current cartel of supporting assets prices is weak compared to the 2009 highs.

And the guy above is again missing the point that the major reason copper/silver and gold got decimated back in Aug into Sept is China, not f*cking Greece!  That country is useless. Greece is nothing, it will end up crumbling into a heap anyway.

It's Asia baby, three days of more meltups then a Aug style equity beatdown. 

 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:32 | 1759419 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

genuine bull runs are not marked by wicked snap-back rallies. this smacks of desperation, otherwise buyers would be trying to accumulate shares at the best price instead of driving up the market as fast as they can on low volume.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:46 | 1759440 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I AGREE WITH YOUR ASSESSMENT ABOUT THIS VOLATILITY. IT IS NOT SEEN NEAR TRUE BOTTOMS, NOR INITIAL BULL RUNS.

HOWEVER WE NO LONGER HAVE A FREE MARKET. DONT EXPECT IT TO FUNCTION LIKE ONE. ALL WE HAVE NOW IS POLITICAL RISK IN THE SHORT AND INTERMEDIATE TERM.

PLACE YOUR BETS GENTLEMEN.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 20:29 | 1759515 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

BAC down over 50% ytd, GS down nearly 50%, C Down 50%. I do not believe the market can rally with many of the big banks making 52 wk lows.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:47 | 1759442 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

Totally agree. However, if we crank in the manipulation factor...?.... [bullshit/bullshit]. Am waiting with bated breath for next few days to see if my observed pattern of 5 to 9 (calendar) days, trough to peak holds. Since Aug 22-31: first (and longest) rip up. Now we are at 8 days (tomorrow). Otherwise, I gues it really IS "to da fuckin' moon" this time

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:59 | 1759454 DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

Yup, that's how I call the timing too, only I screwed up and went short a day early (I hope that's all it was).

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 20:15 | 1759479 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

AND.... a new Theory is hatched in my pea brain: what if, while the prop desks make money for da Man, all the little weenies pushing buttons and, by extension, all theit cousins, aunts & uncles & girlfriends (not to mention all the Pigs on the 99th floor, too) KNOW the rips & drops run 5 to 9 days.... hence making a killing short and long - running up and running down. How sweet would that be? But that could never happen in the "real" world, right? 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:56 | 1759451 chump666
chump666's picture

you are right it's called 'marked up distribution'.

We are close to topping out, maybe a day or so.

 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 20:21 | 1759492 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

From wiki: In the days leading up to the crash the market was severely unstable. Periods of selling and high volumes of trading were interspersed with brief periods of rising prices and recovery. Economist and author Jude Wanniski later correlated these swings with the prospects for passage of the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act, which was then being debated in Congress...

 

Rewritten for today: In the days leading up to the crash the market was severely unstable. Periods of selling and high volumes of trading were interspersed with brief periods of rising prices and recovery. The squid later correlated these swings with the prospects for passage of the Greek bailout.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:48 | 1759444 Gene8696
Gene8696's picture

Yes.. Was glad to see 1224 was not breached. I too think this is just another swing, but I worry that china (who's market moves on USA/EU, not other way around) is back today...

Yesterday doesn't count for China... today is their first day really back. I don't know what they will do, but hope they are tired from their trip to the family hut?

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:10 | 1759375 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Money talks and bs should walk...but it never does.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:15 | 1759376 falak pema
falak pema's picture

east -west relationship : The west in tailspin has to recoup on debt reduction and better sustainable production model based on new energy paradigm, as well new economic structural balancing model, using new benchmarks for economic growth.

Bank nationalizations : world wide necessity as their liquidity-solvency needs explode under ponzi wind-down. Change whole global financial arcitecture and regulation of corporate/Banksta/shadow banksta/derivative bubble/tax havened ponzi by forbidding naked derivative, shorting, commodity speculative plays. Glass-Steagalling world finance and making bank water carriers of real economy, not iconistic HF speculators of synthetic derivatives bubble economy. Deregulate and deglobalise the financialised economy. Kill the FED private sector control. Change the world reserve currency. 

Supply and demand : curtail internatonal labor arbitrage model of globalisation. Bring back work to balance production/consumption in continental labour based economies. Allow global trade only for non strategic or new technology fed sustainable development. Make Gross national happiness index based on labour-social satisfaction factors a socio-economic norm for regulating trade imbalance (selective protectionism-cultural exceptionalism). Mark up fossil energy price to discourage world transport of food commodities and move to renewable sustainable energies. Encourage autarcy of food on each continent. Encourage intercontinental people movement for cultural/educational/tourist industry, non strategic exchanges. Make economic self sufficiency a key element of nation-state/regional economies which are culturally integrated. Encourage use of Internet for socio-cultural integration and technology transfer skills. Review international trade agreements to this effect through WTO/ILO etc organisations as well regional and bilateral mecanisms if international regulation blocked. Make EU/USA/CHINA/JAPAN/BRIC the spinal axis for this model.

 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:19 | 1759391 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

AL GORE? IS THAT YOU?

DONT YOU REMEMBER MR. SMOOT AND MR. HAWLEY?
SMOOT HAWLEY TARIFF? RING A BELL?

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:22 | 1759398 falak pema
falak pema's picture

watch the financial dominoes fall...then we'll talk. 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:26 | 1759410 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I HAVE A WELL STOCKED LIQUOR CABINET, GOOD WEED, AND LOTS OF CHEESE DOODLES.

I AM GOING TO ENJOY WATCHING THE SHOW, BUT THE SUSPENSE IS KILLING ME.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 21:29 | 1759628 chump666
chump666's picture

hahahaha

Tue, 10/11/2011 - 07:33 | 1760417 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Hey Top,

Are you Michele Bachman's poodle n are you referring to the "Hoot-Smalley" act that that 'no good socialist' FDR signed...?

Just goes to show the Repubs were protectionist then as now...when it suits their cause.

I'm no tariff barrier freak. There are better ways of bringing capital investment back to USA. Building a fire wall of integrated services based on cooperative entrepreneurial capitalism and qualitative criteria to ensure that quality as produced in USA is RESPECTED and non quality is Ostracised. If the USA cannot build an intelligent firewall built on innovation, value added quality, and consumer protection quality, then the US model is REALLY in trouble. Re-industrialisation of USA on this basis.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:44 | 1759434 knukles
knukles's picture

Nothin' like a little central planning to set things straight.

Tue, 10/11/2011 - 05:17 | 1760326 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Gorbachev moment of financialized capitalism now approaching. So every man has to choose his camp. 

Look at what the people want in the world : not to be treated as 'commodities' in 'international labour arbitrage'. Its right there on WS protest at the heart of capitalism. They are fed up with 'The Aapl-Walmart' model. All over the world the issue for survival now is  : Not to have their land and first necessities for survival be arbitrated by 'neo-colonial corporate culture' of "we, the 1%, decide how your cheap land is best utilised for short term ROI. Energy vs food trade-offs. Too bad if you all die".

Lets get out of this nihilistic-anarcho-capitalistic mind-set, organised by 1% Uber-capitalists, what the Oligarchs of the West and their minions and cohorts  call : 'invisible hand of the market (phony), and spirit of free enterprise (crony capitalism). Cynical manipulative social darwinism based on 'race to bottom' for humanity (the 99%). 

Last point : every man on that great continent of first world called USA should swim out into PAcific and ATlantic to clean out the mess of MEGA plastic continents of Pollution they have bequeathed as legacy to the world by their 'super consumerism'. Then,  only then, can they watch American idol and pop their corn and drink their chilled beer like the privileged inhabitants of the 'land of the free'.

If you have better arguments, which are not limited to negative rants but are constructive as to solving the problems we ALL face, love to hear.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:13 | 1759380 The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

It's a race to the top...Finally, what was set on it's head has been returned to stand on it's feet

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:16 | 1759385 Belarus
Belarus's picture

My stance for a long time has been that first everyone that is net short will first be fucked from sideways to Sunday. Then, it will be net longs that will get fucked from sideways to Sunday. Then the bottom 50% that don't own shit will get fucked from sideways until Sunday. 

And that is how this Global story ends. 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:22 | 1759400 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

A GREENIE FOR YA.

I AGREE.

STAY THIRSTY MY FRIEND, AND HAVE A NIMBLE TRADING FINGER.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:25 | 1759406 hambone
hambone's picture

nimble trading or trigger finger???

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:30 | 1759417 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

A NIMBLE TRADING FINGER SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF CAPITAL TO RENT A FEW TRIGGER FINGERS WHEN NEEDED.

DONT TRY TO GO IT ALONE, OR IN A SMALL GROUP. THE BIG BOYS WILL JUST COME AROUND TO COLLECT TAXES TWICE A YEAR AND BURN YOU TO THE GROUND IF YOU DONT HAND OVER YOUR WHEAT AND CHICKENS.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:42 | 1759432 hambone
hambone's picture

Yup.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:24 | 1759401 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Belarus... that's how the .1% make money when growth is dead, manipulate the market up and down

to rob the shorts and the longs over and over again until the average investor is broke or wises up and

quits the rigged game.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:39 | 1759426 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Exactly.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:26 | 1759408 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

The Fedury is hopelessly biased toward TBTF. 

I kid you not though ... I'm ging to be a wet hornet if those yahoos give another bailout to the banks. 

I have my own hair cutter and she only chagres $30 for a cut.  Let those who participated in the ponzi get hit first and then come talk to me about whether I would like to pick up the pieces for pennies on the dollar ... or not.

 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:31 | 1759418 kito
kito's picture

In some ways, Napier put his finger on today's market pulse when he said that investors will paradoxically like a bank nationalization as it will remove uncertainty if only in the short-term.

YESSSSIRRREEEE


 


Mon, 10/10/2011 - 20:03 | 1759462 samsara
samsara's picture

Next Sunday/Monday  Dday?

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 20:07 | 1759466 The4thStooge
The4thStooge's picture

banks blowing up = bullish. got it.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 20:13 | 1759474 chump666
chump666's picture

japan current account just went into hell -64.3%!!! (from wires)

and that dude wants to load up on Asian currency???

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 20:28 | 1759510 Michael Victory
Michael Victory's picture

race to the bottom continues.

Daily gold fix:

Marion Muellet talks with James Turk

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 20:39 | 1759535 Noah Vail
Noah Vail's picture

Nationalize the banks, would that include the primary dealers who buy most of the government debt? So if I understand this right, the  governments own the banks that lend the governments their money (40% in the US).

Yup, that'll work out just fine. I think they call that monetization. And since about half the PD's in the US are foreign, many European, they end up doubling down on owning each other's debt. Isn't that very thing part of Europe's problem right now?

Nationalizing banks would only hasten the downfall of the major governments.

Try to think of something a little more original.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 20:41 | 1759538 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

 

For the entire period from December 2007 to June 2011, real median annual household income has declined by 9.8 percent. A decline of this magnitude represents a significant reduction in the American standard of living.

 

 

http://www.sentierresearch.com/pressreleases/SentierResearch_PressReleas...


Biflation, Bitchez!  It's here, It's queer, Get used to it. 

 

 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 20:45 | 1759543 reader2010
reader2010's picture

Banking, just like cloud computing, should be a utility not usury to a society. If they nationalize banks, the fractional fiat banking business model should be dismantled all together. Otherwise, they will set themselves up for another 1787 on a global scale. Karma is a bitch. 

http://farm7.static.flickr.com/6216/6232828782_dab248f346_z.jpg

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 20:47 | 1759549 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Commercial banking, yes. Prob going to happen. Unless they revive Glass-Steagle can still blow it all to hell. Maybe those FDR era rules weren't all stupid. 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 21:00 | 1759582 Mercury
Mercury's picture

It's hard to wave a way anything he says here or at the 9/20 CSLA presentation (it's not like he wants the laws of supply and demand to be throttled by governments).  But in light of his grim (Western) prognosis it's hard  not to cheer for an acute, systemic financial collapse as opposed to a 'lost" decade or two....and God knows what other attendant horrors.

If he's right about Singapore however it should nicely highlight exactly where Switzerland fucked up.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 21:12 | 1759596 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

Bachman / Palin 2012, baby! Double Trouble Ticket! Followed by their photo op in Playboy, a really bad porn movie called "Double Dykes Do Washington Doggie Dildo Style", with a crescendo when they finish their term with the Fuck America - REAL GOOD! tour, followed by all expense paid trips to the FEMA camp of your choice! But wait - there's more - free meds and indoctrination into the Mama Grizzly Tribe! Fuck, yeah! Good Times!

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 21:23 | 1759615 doomz78
doomz78's picture
This was my e-mail to a bloomberg reporter and his boss on a political race update that did not mention Ron Pauls existance........   I am ashamed that you guys from the mainstream media are ignoring Ron Paul. I can smell your fear and I wish reporters had a back bone. The news has turned into a political propaganda machine, and not a subjective informative reporting tool that it is supposed to be. You have given your man pussy to your handlers and I consider you a bitch. Just like the Fox News guys, CNBC, ABC, CNN and all the other mainstream media guys ignoring Ron Paul. Do you have any answer to this real issue of blacking out the most sensible candidate?? People know what’s going on and the protesters are getting pissed. Mainstream media, the too big to fail banks, the federal reserve, and the greasy politicians. The USA stink machine of bankruptcy. Congrats on being a part of it. Truly yours.....
Mon, 10/10/2011 - 22:06 | 1759694 chump666
chump666's picture

That is a good article.   The Germans will push for a 50% haircut...if the Germans are taxed an extra 40% for the bailout fund. Merkel will have to ensure the banks get a major writedown on Greek/PIIGS debt.

What a mess.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 22:29 | 1759740 SpasticGramps
SpasticGramps's picture

It's those damn pesky details! lol

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 21:38 | 1759649 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

VICTIM OF CHANGES bitchezzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODlzOyNFXtQ&feature=related

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 22:08 | 1759696 rocker
rocker's picture

I am Rocker because of my interest in Minerals, Hard Assets and Rock & Roll.

Dam SwingForce,  that was Fuckin Great.  THx.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 21:44 | 1759657 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

It was no accident that the income tax followed closely on the heels of the establishment of the FED

 

As for Cain, he was a no-go for me as soon as I saw his connection to the KC FED.

 

But, hey the elites cannot totally destroy this country; they need the reserve currency to steal from the rest of the world, using the US military as an enforcement arm.  We're last on the list, but only when the uber-Progressives manage to destroy the 2nd Amendment.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 22:11 | 1759700 doomz78
doomz78's picture

Am I seeing something here?  When the markets rally oil and gold and all commodities go up.  And the US dollar goes down.  That's a problem.  On the flip side, when the markets tank everyone panics and wants to add stimulus but gold, silver and oil go down with the Euro.  And then people buy US treasury bonds.    So inflation vs deflation.  If you were the big players and fed would't you just leave the market in this wave pattern.  Big rallies, big drops.  And just make sure that nothing crosses any major highs or lows.  Keep the market in this oscillating wave.  That way they don't have to do anything, and the little guys stay confused and bitches about the volatility and the lack of direction in the market.  That seems to be what's happening here.  If they could keep the stock market in this retard wave for as long as possible it would negate the need for more stimulus and keep the average investory in a constant state of confusion.  And the only real winners here would be the High frequency traders/robo traders from Jp Morgan and Goldman Sachs. 

Im just spoutting off here but if I was them that's what I would do for a while.  Gold will have a hell of a hard time getting past 2000$.  They will fight that psychological price as hard as possible.  If gold rallies through 2000$...  Watch out.  Then the media and all the gold bubble people will be forced to shut their traps and the mania may begin.  Very dangerous for fiat currencies. 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 22:15 | 1759709 jcaz
jcaz's picture

Umm.... Oil and Gold are denominated in Dollars, so weaker Dollar = higher gold and oil prices.....

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 22:36 | 1759731 doomz78
doomz78's picture

Im writing in general terms.  That's the traditional relationship yes of course.  What Im saying is that they are having a hard time propping up their precious market without causing inflation to spiral out of control.  I guess Im trying to make sense of the wild swings in a weird market. Please help me!!! lol

 

I think they are more careful to announce more QE or bailouts.. (The USA is) UK and euro don't seem to have any problems talking about money printing...  Because Gold is keeping them honest.  Its late maybe I need a break from these markets.  I feel tired lately.  Like Ive been on a rollercoaster for the last month.  I guess I just feel like they have reached a crucial point in confidence and the public has awakened to what Quantitative Easing really is.  Are we in a Fiat/fractional reserve banking pinch? On the verge of having a deflationairy collapse?  On the verge of causing a hyperinflation to combat the deflation?  Im confused.  Maybe they are also... 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 22:14 | 1759705 Georgesblog
Georgesblog's picture

I'm always amused by speculation about the best way to plug into the economic reality of the moment. All of the changes in bank status, perceived values and social chaos are all manipulated illusion. The reality is that your access to water, food and shelter has been captured and is being held for ransom.

http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/10/06/crash-course/

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 22:24 | 1759728 reader2010
Mon, 10/10/2011 - 22:34 | 1759752 zen0
zen0's picture

apparently the whores in Europe are getting prettier and cheaper at the same time. This is not a good sign for the economy.

 

Fortunately, where I am , the whores are ugly and expensive, so we are doing ok.

Tue, 10/11/2011 - 03:09 | 1760277 Loukanika the r...
Loukanika the riot dog's picture

Somebody has been caught trying to make a fast buck from the BoE QE process and lost out big time :-)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8819296/Bank-of-England-aba...

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