Russell Napier On The End Of Supply & Demand, Bank Nationalizations As An Upside Catalyst, And Relative East Vs West Value
Following up to his must read September 20 presentation from the CLSA economic forum titled "Darkness on the Edge of Town" in which the core topic was the upcoming cliff in the capacity of monetary intervention to impact the economy (something which apparently did not prevent the BOE or the ECB to announce further monetary easing in the subsequent weeks, and which in our opinion will have no impact on the Fed as it eventually sets off on its own merry LSAP path), is the following interview given to Bloomberg TV in which the strategist, previously known for his bold S&P at 400 prediction, in which he defines the new regime as one where supply and demand no longer matter, and all is determined by centrally planning governments across the developed world. The conclusion is that while as a result of failed government policies the developed world stagnates, and the market tumbles, as a result of "earnings not holding up and thus driving stocks lower", it is Asia where any potential growth remains, and as such investors should take their dollar holdings and dump them in India (for example). One last topic was the imminent nationalization of numerous European banks (over and above what happened with Dexia, and the follows up from earlier today, Greek Proton and Danish Max). In some ways, Napier put his finger on today's market pulse when he said that investors will paradoxically like a bank nationalization as it will remove uncertainty if only in the short-term. "It is a very negative long-term thing for Europe" he says, but adds that "speaking to investors at the CLSA economic forum they are so convinced the euro is going to collapse that when it doesn't collapse, the market will probably go up." That said he concludes, "this is a major structural turning point and a bad thing for return on capital in Europe." Oh well, who cares about a year, or a month, or even a week into the future. Career risk is here and it is right now, and one must do precisely whet everyone else does.