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Same Trick Different Week: "Initial Claims Decline Following Revision"; Deficit Surge Pushes Q1 GDP To 1.5%

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Stop us when this sounds familiar. Last week's 365K number has been revised to 368K, which is where the expectations for this week's print were. Instead, we got 367K claims this week, a 1K beat to expectations, which will be a 2K miss next week of course, but at least the pre-election propaganda media has their headline: "Initial Claims improve by 1,000." And scene. Naturally, the same thing happened for continuing claims, which beat expectations of 3275K, printing at 3229K, with the last week's print revised to 3290K from 3276K. The more disturbing form an end demand standpoint data, is that yet another 40K dropped off extended claims and EUCs. Finally in what is the best new for the market, and worst for the Economy, is that the March trade deficit soared to $51.8 billion, on expectations of -$50 billion, which was the biggest trade balance drop in 10 months. What this means is that Q1 GDP which already is tracking at 1.9%, just got lobbed to 1.5%. Yes: the Q1 GDP first revision will likely show the 2.2% number is now in the low to mid 1% range.

As for the BLS initial claims upward revision track record, here it is.

h/t John Lohman

 

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Thu, 05/10/2012 - 08:47 | 2412716 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Deja vu all over again.

 

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 09:07 | 2412764 Hal n back
Hal n back's picture

when the report is say 367k claims--what is that on an annual run rate? It's not 367,000 time 52 is it (hard to think thats the number)

 

 

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 15:49 | 2414387 snblitz
snblitz's picture

Regarding initial weekly unemployment claims

http://workforcesecurity.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims_arch.asp

I have to admit even that page is not real clear, but the statement they use does not say annualized.

wikipedia says it is the seasonally adjusted number of people applying for initial unemployment benefits in the prior week.

On the other hand 367,000 * 52 = 19 million.  I guess it is all part of the game and why others like shadowstats are around 22% unemployment instead of 8%.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 09:16 | 2412796 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

It's amazing, almost magical, how the number can be lower than last week every single fucking week, but never actually go down, and in some cases, go up. I stand in awe of the magical powers of our gubmint.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 09:22 | 2412814 The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

on my 20 minute drive in I heard the spin masters on Bloomberg say 4 times how this was the lowest print in a month..."a month"  really?  is this the best they could do.  If this isn't a set up for retail i don't know what is.  Fortunately for zerohedger's this is welcome news to add to the shorts

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 09:50 | 2412913 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

17 for 17...I think that beats Will Clark's 1989 record, no?

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 09:16 | 2412799 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

For those who think when the collapse comes troops would refuse to fire on US citizens

May 10 1994

300 active-duty Marines stationed at Twenty-Nine Palms receive a 46-question, multiple-choice survey. Given a hypothetical situation, more than a quarter of respondents indicate their willingness to "fire upon U.S. citizens who refuse or resist confiscation of firearms banned by the U.S. government." On the positive side, almost two-thirds recognize that the order would be patently unconstitutional.

 

These don't even need a comment

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/all-opinions-are-local/post/the-dron...

The drone helicopter over my backyard

I live maybe 20 miles as the crow flies from Fort Pickett, a Virginia National Guard base that is used by military and law enforcement agencies, including Navy SEALs, the Marines, the Air Force and Army Special Forces, Canadians, Secret Service, the FBI and Virginia State Police. It’s fairly common to hear the distinctive sounds of military aircraft flying about, such as the muffled roar of Blackhawks, the vibrating thunder of Sea Stallions and the less frequent “whup, whup” of the old, Vietnam-era Hueys.

So imagine my surprise a few weeks ago when I heard a chopper noise I couldn’t identify. I looked up and maybe 150 feet off the ground was a light grey helicopter that seemed to hover over my property. It was clearly marked “NAVY” and was the size of a ubiquitous civilian Sky Ranger but with one big difference: This aircraft had no cockpit and no pilot.

http://theintelhub.com/2012/05/10/u-s-military-conducts-realistic-urban-...

U.S. Military Conducts ‘Realistic Urban Training’ Exercise in Miami

http://boingboing.net/2012/05/09/german-police-fired-85-bullets.html

http://www.spiegel.de/panorama/justiz/polizei-schoss-2011-seltener-im-di...

German police fired 85 bullets in 2011

Itwilllbeok sez, "According to the German Police University police officers used exactly 85 bullets in 2011 - 49 warning shots, 36 shots on suspects. 15 persons were injured, 6 were killed. Germany has a population of about 80 million. (This does only take into account shots in connection with crimes. There were an additional 9000 shots on dangerous, sick and injured animals)."

http://www.wpbf.com/news/south-florida/Baby-18-months-old-ordered-off-pl...

Baby, 18 months old, ordered off plane at Fort Lauderdale airport Little Riyanna's father: 'We were humiliated'

http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2012/05/body-scanner-vulnerabilities/?u...

Homeland Security Concedes Airport Body Scanner ‘Vulnerabilities’

http://www.newsoftheweird.com/special/special.html

The following kinds of stories were formerly weird, but they now occur with
such frequency that they must be retired from circulation:

1. an old, widely-advertised phone-sex number is reassigned to a
church/charity
2. suspicious package thought to be a bomb, turns out to be something stupid
3. robber leaves his ID [wallet or appointment card for probation officer or etc.] at the scene
4. peace/brotherhood conference erupts into violence
5. robber on getaway accidentally hails unmarked police car
6. political candidate dies but still wins the election
7. family thinks he's dead, but he's not and attends his own funeral
8. hunters shoot each other
9. funeral home owner neglects/mixes up bodies
10. "victimized" drug buyer complains to police that someone sold him weak or bogus drugs

11. some countries prohibit giving children certain names
12. in middle of an obvious drug raid, customer wanders up and asks cop if he can buy some drugs
13. shoots himself while supposedly demonstrating gun safety
14. global warming caused by animal methane
15. burglar gets stuck in vent or chimney
16. courthouse visitor/defendant inadvertently places contraband on the
x-ray tables at entrance
17. burglar falls asleep during job.
18. family accidentally leaves behind a kid at a highway rest stop
19. driver's license applicant crashes into examiner station before or during test
20. [Oops! It's about the same as number 15]

21. overdue-library-book scofflaws actually go to jail
22. DUI tickets for "driving" a bicycle [or horse or riding lawn mower or etc.]
23. starts fire because can't stop smoking even though hooked up to oxygen machine
24. gasoline thieves check quantity in tank by using a match or lighter to peer inside
25. older teacher/younger boy relationship
26. firefighter with an arson habit [to keep in practice or to feel wanted or etc.]
27. local election ends in tie, settled (by law) by coin flip or draw of cards
28. Japanese men committing suicide because of overwork
29. angry customer drives car right through store's front door
30. heating-oil delivery to wrong house, resulting in flooded basement

31. postal worker hoards mail because he's behind in delivering it
32. bank robber hails taxi or municipal bus for getaway
33. the annual student cheating riots in Bangladesh
34. criminal on the lam goes on national tv talk show and mentions that he's wanted
35. dog steps on gun, shooting the master
36. pack of animals breaks into liquor cabinet or fermenting vat, get drunk
37. a loved one died at home, but the relative never gets around to burying him or her
38. school zero-tolerance policies for "weapons" that are purely, obviously ornamental
39. amateur videographers set up miniature cameras in restrooms
40. animal-hoarding (mostly of cats) women

41. carjackers who never learned to drive stick shift and must abandon the car
42. criminal suspect evading police, jumps in river to escape, and drowns
43. young-looking adults impersonate teenagers and return to high school
44. African nation's rumors of people with power to make penises disappear
45. humongous abdominal cysts removed in surgery
46. unlabeled urn with loved one's ashes mistakenly stolen or sold at yard sale
47. husband takes his wife back even though she just tried to kill him
48. judges punish young people by forcing them to listen to [classical or polka or etc.] music
49. hit-and-run driver drives on and on with body or bicycle in grille or windshield
50. criminal, cornered by police dog, bites the dog

51. burglars leave footprints in snow, directly to their homes
52. [Oops! It's about the same as number 48]
53. video shoe-cams or smoke-detector-cams to spy on women
54. Japanese making many silent hang-up telephone calls against former lover or business partner
55. robber smashes store's surveillance "camera," but it's only the lens, and it captured his face
56. inadvertently tries to cash a stolen personal check at the store [bank] where his victim works
57. accidental bombing of house by airliner's "blue ice"
58. elderly citizen trying to convince bureaucrat that, contrary to records, he's not really dead
59. elderly motorist makes wrong turn, gets lost for days
60. bands of criminals videotape their entire crime sprees for kicks, but makes it easy for cops

61. parents frolic while their small kids are left home alone
62. people trying to outrun police while driving slow-moving vehicles
63. combining jellyfish gene to produce another plant or animal that glows
64. imposter cop has car with flashing light, stopping motorists, accidentally stops real cop
65. parents who leave their small kids locked in hot cars while they frolic
66. inmates who advertise innocently for penpals on lonely-hearts pages on
the Internet
.

http://www.brewdog.com/blog-article/diageo-v-brewdog

Diageo Screw BrewDog

Kerry, Mark, Neil S and Neil T attended the award ceremony. We had heard that BrewDog were expected to do quite well in the ‘Bar Operator of the Year’ category and the members of the bar team were suitable excited to see if our hard work would be recognised by this most prestigious and illustrious award.

However we were not announced as winners of the award. This disappointment was further compounded when one of the judges (seated at our table) told us in disbelief ‘this simply cannot be, the independent judging panel voted for BrewDog as clear winners of the award’.

Events took a further twist when the people who got given the award refused to accept it as it clearly had ‘BrewDog’ engraved on the trophy as winners.

On Tuesday, 2 days after the award, I (James) took a phone call from Kenny Mitchell, Chairman of the BII in Scotland and Chairman of the Award Committee explaining the situation. To directly quote Kenny:

‘We are all ashamed and embarrassed about what happened. The awards have to be an independent process and BrewDog were the clear winner’

‘Diageo (the main sponsor) approached us at the start of the meal and said under no circumstances could the award be given to BrewDog. They said if this happened they would pull their sponsorship from all future BII events and their representatives would not present any of the awards on the evening.’

We were as gobsmacked as you by Diageo’s behaviour. We made the wrong decision under extreme pressure. We should have stuck to our guns and gave the award to BrewDog.‘


 

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 10:01 | 2412952 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture
Military pilots to train over Asheville area forests

"Residents of western Transylvania and other counties in Western North Carolina may see military planes conducting wilderness firefighting training operations in the upcoming week over remote parts of Pisgah National Forest."  http://www.citizen-times.com/article/20120506/NEWS/305060076/Military-pi...|head

Not to worry...it's firefighting training...

Other news:  Bank of America protests in Charlotte (5/9/12) Slideshow:

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/05/09/3228961/protesting-bank-of-a...

 

 

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 09:39 | 2412880 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

No worries, we're blaming it on the tsunami.

Should have BTFD.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 08:47 | 2412718 I Am Not a Copp...
I Am Not a Copper Top's picture

Sure explains the futures pop

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 08:51 | 2412727 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Like hitting that button that sends a shock up your arm......maybe this time will be different.........ouch DAMMIT!!!

 

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 08:53 | 2412737 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Even the lies are strongly bullish.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 08:49 | 2412720 somethingelse
somethingelse's picture

Hmmm....I'm not really a statistics guy but I am sensing a pattern here.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 08:52 | 2412733 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Now that you mention it.....it does seem like a rerun.

 

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 09:01 | 2412751 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Excluding the potential for no revision you can get a gut feeling for it by throwing 17 coins in the air and calling "all heads!" The only real choices here are- they're too lazy to corrrect systematic errors in the data process or they're deliberately reporting numbers that they know are wrong but are conveniently wrong. I know which I believe.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 08:48 | 2412723 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

God help Americans with "improvements" like this.

Does this comment qualify me for those political "activists" re-education camps ?

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 09:01 | 2412756 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

comment maybe...avatar for sure.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 09:01 | 2412757 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

You're posting on ZeroHedge. Unless you can show your troll employment contract with BofA you are qualified.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 09:13 | 2412792 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

Well doesn't that just suck for me then!

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 08:48 | 2412724 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Yea, and, it works for the masses.

ES +10 and they'll ramrod it to +20 by the close and proclaim victory.

What's new?

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 08:53 | 2412739 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Pennies, meet steamroller.

It works until it doesn't. Then it becomes expensive.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 08:58 | 2412747 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

It's just that Lincoln's face looks so creepy all squashed out and elongated once the steamroller runs over the pennies.  SOMEONE has to get them!

But not me.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 09:01 | 2412754 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, front run that shit.  rinse and repeat. Absolute power corrupts absolutely.  How long will the people of the world allow the Federal Reserve banking cartel to keep front-running itself?  This is the real question at hand.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 09:12 | 2412783 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

After 7 down days a bounce is expected. Nothing goes in a straight line.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 09:25 | 2412828 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

What 7 down days?  Each day has been saved from being as bad as it should have with massive intervention.

Now, due to the closing color it assumed to oversold and ready for a 'trampoline' effect higher?

Please.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 09:28 | 2412843 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

It's catchy though, as a concept, you have to admit.

Mundus vult decipi

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 09:59 | 2412951 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

The purchasing power of my my disposible income has been.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 08:50 | 2412726 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Remember this: You are watching history unfold as the once greatest country in the world is reduced to something resembling the former USSR circa 1988...

The lies will continue to get worse until... 

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 08:51 | 2412735 Mister Ponzi
Mister Ponzi's picture

45th upward revision in a row for jobless claims, 93rd (!) for continuing claims.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 11:39 | 2413334 SDShack
SDShack's picture

This is why you will never see a sub2% print in GDP before the election. If they can lie this long about unemployment and not get challenged, they are and will continue to lie about GDP, inflation, and everything else negative about the economy.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 08:56 | 2412743 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

 

 

RIP transparent markets, property rights, and capitalism.

Epitaph:

"We had to destroy the Truth in order to save it"

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 08:58 | 2412746 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

As I said last week "we will be beating expectations all the way down."

 

No regulation or transparency, possession is the law.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 08:58 | 2412750 monopoly
monopoly's picture

I cannot help but wonder, if we had an honest govt. One that would just tell the truth the way it is and we did not shove 4 trillion into this furnace, for this moribund economy, would we still be in recession officially after 4 years? Why can't we get humans that care about the country, and not themselves? Sorry, gone delusional. Good Morning.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 09:01 | 2412753 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

Are these people in the mainstream media aware that week after week of 300k+ jobless claims is negative?  I personally wouldn't even be using the term "improve" in anyway shape or form regardless of whether it beats expectations by 1k or a fake 1k.  These people are idiots.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 09:33 | 2412863 deez nutz
deez nutz's picture

Are these people in the mainstream media aware that week after week of 300k+ jobless claims is negative?

it is a POSITIVE unless told otherwise ......

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 09:07 | 2412765 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

First time I have ever said this, but I have to give MW some credit.  Their headline read "Week's jobless claims flat". Closer to reailty than other outlets.

Nice revision on the Import Prices, revised about 70% lower.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 09:16 | 2412801 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture
Congress: TSA Covered Up Millions in Misspending

 

The Transportation Security Administration has wasted hundreds of millions of dollars by buying equipment it doesn't need and storing it in a North Texas warehouse, according to a congressional report released Wednesday.

The blistering report also accuses the airport security agency of trying to cover up the misspending by misleading investigators.

The probe largely (large probe) focused on TSA's Transportation Logistics Center in Grapevine, which stores approximately 5,700 pieces of equipment such as baggage screening, groping manuals,  and instruction pamphlets regarding "How to start a conversation during a cavity search"

SA also gave investigators a list of equipment that "falsely identified disposal dates and directly contradicted the inventory," according to the report.

http://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/Congress-TSA-Covered-Up-Millions-in-Mis...

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 09:18 | 2412809 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Initial Jobless Claims Drop 1k (After Revision) - NON-Employment Rate at 58.4%

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/05/10/initial-jobless-claims-drop-1k-after-revision-40-8-million-still-unemployed-and-on-disability/

 

Press ignores the bigger picture as usual.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 09:33 | 2412867 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

US trade gap widens as imports surge

At this point, the only thing we export is fail and irony. 

When the only good news is that inital claims fell by 1,000.......that only tells me that time is running out.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 09:55 | 2412937 fuu
fuu's picture

My pony finally arrived this morning.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 10:01 | 2412955 navy62802
navy62802's picture

The only people they're fooling are themselves.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 10:03 | 2412963 Hohum
Hohum's picture

YOY, claims down about 60K.  Interpret it as you will.

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 13:55 | 2413926 WatchingIgnorance
WatchingIgnorance's picture

When there is no one to lay off because there are no jobs, then naturally the numbers will start to come down YOY.

What would it look like if the employment participation rate was the same as in 2007?

My eyes are much more reliable than government spun data.

The time is drawing near. Are you ready?

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 10:06 | 2412969 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

But O's "Forward" campaign spot on the TeeVee last night said times were booming in America because we don't quit.

Hilarious

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 10:34 | 2413073 halleys5
halleys5's picture

I'm afraid I don't understand that last table and chart. It's just so complex, my brain has locked up.

Guess that means I'm ready to vote in November.

Another sheeple bites the dust...

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 10:48 | 2413078 BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

This is hardly a surprise.  After 6 straight days of declines, they absolutely positively need to have "good" news to pop the market up today.  Next week this weeks number may be revised by 5,000.  Yeah, I know calling out an exact number is the surest way to put my foot in my mouth, but I'm very confident that this was a completely fabricated number (or more fabricated than usual is a better way to say it).

 

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 12:02 | 2413458 djsmps
djsmps's picture

I think Reuters has embraced the unicorn.

Drop in jobless claims eases labor market fears

New claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 1,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 367,000, the Labor Department said. Economists who had expected claims to rise to 369,000 said the decline suggested seasonal distortions that had led to a spike in applications last month was probably over.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/10/us-jobless-claims-idUSBRE8490QE20120510?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtopNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Top+News%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher

Maybe it was, as Liesman always says, the "Easter effect".

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 12:15 | 2413513 Curt W
Curt W's picture

I seem to remember that the first Thurs. in March it was at 348 K  it has been down every week since then and now sits at 367 K  Things that make you go Hmm

Thu, 05/10/2012 - 14:46 | 2414140 Hal n back
Hal n back's picture

so, anybody know if the 367k number is actual new claims last week--which would be 19 million new claims annually--would 19 mil people lose jobs in a year, (how many repeats) and if 4 mil new jobs created by Obama even if in one year that means 15 mil lost jobs this year--this makes no sense so if someone knows the answer???

 

Sun, 05/13/2012 - 23:16 | 2422624 qiongqiong
qiongqiong's picture

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