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Santa Rally Is Over: French Spreads Blow Out To Late November Levels; Shanghai Composite Already Down On The year
Remember when the world was watching the OAT-Bund spread with bated breath every day in late November until the Fed came in and reliquifed the world with a "half off blue light special" on the OIS+100 bps? Well, it's time to get your OAT tracker out, because quietly the OAT-Bund spread has blown out back to 145 bps, the widest it has been since late November when the world was ending, and before even the S&P announcement it would downgrade France (which incidentally we have not forgotten about - how is that "ASAP after the December 9 summit" thing going for you guys?). Whether the market is pricing in the downgrade or merely noticing that French banks were forced to dump a record amount of US debt in the last month as only Zero hedge has pointed out so far is unknown. What is known is that the Santa rally int eh EURUSD and for Europe lasted all of one day. Which is more than can be said about the Shanghai Composite: it is already down for the year on its first day of trading.
France-Bund spread:
Shanghai Composite:
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China hard landing ---tic tac...
Remember those Chinese banks that doesnt lend money to French banks......
China knows France gonna suffer a big hit
Ve haf vays of making you toc.
vut zthe phuck?
Können Sie nicht Deutsch sprechen?
China hard landing already in progress since June:
Foreign Affairs: China’s Real Estate Crash
China's Real Estate Bubble Has Burst. The View From Qingdao.Time for a downgrade friday for some fun. And France being downgraded before the election would mean Sarkozy is OUT OF THERE... and might give enough votes to the National Front party... which would be quite funny to see winning. National Front (nationalist party, anti-Euro) vs Socialists (more bailouts, more EU integration)... shall be interesting. Election in France starting on April 22.
And if you want to see some action, watch the Taiwan election on January 14. The nationalists are in the lead and China might go nuts if the nationalists are elected. They were ready to invade Taiwan in 2008 if the nationalists won.
http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Taiwan_missile_can_reach_Beijing_report_...
The Chinese military was prepared to go to war should the Beijing-friendly candidate Ma Ying-jeou lose the 2008 president election, Tsai wrote, citing Taiwan and US intelligence.
With the revolts going on in China, the Chinese government might like a nice distraction.
And also the election in Russia on March 4... lots of stuff going on in 2012.
Remember what Sarkozy said "what credit rating agencies..."
Thanks for alarmist crap.
BTW the nationalists are pro China (KMT).
You are right, I was talking about DPP, which I consider the ``real`` nationalists, since they are Taiwan nationalists... not the KMT who basically are a communist 5th column.
Damn, those Chinese are ahead again.
Ah yes. Cue the China is the "next superpower" folk below.
LOL yeah. They just repeat the MSM view. Hell I talked about that to my aunt during the holidays, she's very bright in politics and has been working in politics for all her life. But she still was fooled by the MSM idea that ``China is the next superpower``... ``All experts say that``... all experts uh? Usually when MSM ``experts`` say something, they are WRONG. See : economic crisis and countless of other stuff. Then I explained to her what was really going on in China... and now she doubts the mainline experts...
Stop believing experts, do your own research.
We got troubles this morning:
Hungary bond auction fails. Unicredit sells rights at 50% discount. Belarus shuts down internet access to foreign websites. Italy and France yields soar.
And those are just the big headliners. There's more.
Singapore GDP shrinks 4.9%, recession imminent http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=85632&Cat=3
Nice!
Yesterday before close I sold a 2X short fund and bought its 3X short version instead. So far so good.
Shanghai still off its 52 week low...it may be a deadcat bounce, but the government which admits it has PPT is buying stocks..so I am not seeing new lows there....even if China softens more....
China may give the world a whole new definition of 'crash' in 2012.
I guess that means they will have plenty of excess capacity to supply us with more cheaply priced consumer goods..
That is bullish, right?
Good point. But considering the wages Chinese workers are paid how much lower can they go? If the US consumer has little money to spend on their products or a possible devaluation of the dollar....so many things to go wrong for China.
Good point, Benny Boy can print some more w/o any inflation risk! Weeeee!
So how long do you think it will take for someone to start floating the idea of nuclear powered cargo ships? Maybe we are heading back to the days of sail. Invest in Rum.
.FRASPRD +6.66 *shudder*
Stocks are going WAY higher because the Chinese will not risk social upheaval. Period.
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