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Santelli And Kaminsky On Broken Rules, Unpredictability, and Deleveraging
In one of the best clips we can remember, Rick Santelli and Gary Kaminsky show just what happens when the kool-aid-drinkers are allowed to speak frankly about our predicament. Instead of constant silver-lining-seeking or trotting out failed truism after failed truism, the two men (who notably have been actual market participants as opposed to mere observers) take on the uncertainty and unpredictability that weighs heavy on our global economies as governments break the rules time and time again - and took advantage of crisis "getting away with anything". Focusing back on what could happen if the market were allowed to think for itself, Kamintelli deface the edifice of central banker largesse and blame it for the actual demise we face - noting that it is now clear that whether it is QE or actual rate easing, using jobs as the argument for excessive intervention is a failed concept. On a Friday that seems to have devolved into a low volume sideways nudge in equities, this is six minutes well spent as they ask and answer the question: "Have rates been too low for too long?" and how those who played by the 'rules' continue to be the ones who are penalized. There is hope for recovery if the market is allowed to find its own level - "it will get better, but the deleveraging pain still has to be taken all over the world."
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The market is schizo.
S1 state: sell oil. buy gold > wait for QE
QE
S2: sell gold. buy oil > wait for stagflation/depression
stagflation/depression: go to S1
Middle class gets squeezed in both states, while bankers & 0.01% continue to get richer, since capital flow generates more capital. But an American Dream (Productive-Labour) doesn't have the potential to bloom in this macro environment.
contrary to your tin foil hat, we aren't on the precipice of some post apocalyptic reality staring Mel Gibson.
It'll take no fancy trick. I'll continue to work. I'll continue to save. I'll continue to spend. And I'll continue to play.
The quality of my life has done nothing but improve over the years. From 2004 to 2008? Improvement. From 2008 until now? More improvement. Same for almost all of my friends and family.
And, I'd bet good money that 4 years from now, my quality of life will continue on the same path that it has since I graduated from college in 2003.
And, my guess? My story is similar to 80 percent of the people on this board. My story is the average...not some sort of exception.
Actually, hold on. I did, in fact, feel the effects of what was going on in 2008. That's when I bought my house. But, for me the economy was great...since it allowed me to purchase that home for approximately 70 percent of its tax value.
Great!! So then, what's it feel like to be a 1%'er (made all the right decisions in a world gone mad) or is your real name Reggie?
well, every dog has his/her day...and the same is true of parasites (is it not, robert-paulson?). so, what bloated corpse have you been sucking from, r-p? let me know if you're still well nourished when the decay starts to ferment thereupon. your anecdotal romp through masterbatory self-congradulation notwithstanding, you've said nothing of any substance.
you'll rarely hear ole jauns quoting ayn rand, but in this case it's called for:
(paraphrased) '...you'll never starve nor will you flourish, you feed on scabs.'
i fucking dare you to reply -- as I WILL crack that lil ego of yours all over the ZH shop floor. clear enough?
go fuck yourself, you goddam twerp.
Love,
janus
Most great rant...
>your anecdotal romp through masterbatory self-congradulation notwithstanding, you've said nothing of any substance.
Now _that's_ a keeper... hope you don't mind me using that at work, got lots of people in Operations that over-shoot disaster claims, but once every 18 months are right and just about break their wrists patting themselves on the back for their "incredible foresight"
I might have to whip out your zinger!
Cheers mate.
anecdotal, arrogant, pompous all come to mind.
in short, hes probably English.
I was going to say Alex Hope, but the 2003 college graduation didn't fit.
How dare you!
My honour (note the spelling) is impugned. Handbags at dawn, on Hampstead Heath. Name your second.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nAmqP6hStds
You have omitted one very important fact:
Did you and your friends and family improve their "quality of life" by going into debt? (Negative amortization)
Or have you been spending all you make, saving nothing? (Zero amortization)
In both those cases you have been enjoying life hoping that others do the preparation for worse times, just like the overwhelming majority.
I'm not sure in what world you live, but it isn't in reality.
. . . my quality of life will continue on the same path that it has since I graduated from college in 2003.
Another kid who has it all figured out.
Did you ever talk to your granpa about the Great Depression, son?
And, I'd bet good money that 4 years from now, my quality of life will continue on the same path that it has since I graduated from college in 2003.
Ok, so you've been on the right side of the trade. You've done it by being a fucking leech and have not produced anything of value. There are a lot of people out there in some real pain and you have to be blind not to see that. Hope you've set enough aside to take care of your family, if you have one.
Paulson, since your history goes back to 2004, I'm guessing you're like 28. Just wait, my friend. Life has a funny way of fucking with you. Just because the plane is still airborne and the fuselage is intact doesn't mean it will remain so after you hit the mountain you don't see behind the cute little puffy cloud straight ahead. I wish you nothing but the best, my friend. Karma is a bitch, as you will eventually learn.
hey, d0_0m!
markets? you mean the interventions in the casino games?
transacting bonds today is essentially transacting central planning. i am fed up! WTF is ZIRP and twist etc. How can you invest like this? It's ILLEGAL for the FED to do this!
Your exactly right, I have been saying since 2009 that we may see stagflation (really hyperstagflation) in this country and possibly in the world. All that QE stuff did was to prop up banks and central banks and the stock market, but didn't do anything for the real economy just saved the bankers some time. Now we are seeing that the real world is seeping into the mark to make believe world and they can't do anything about it. This is a political year and Obama doesn't want to put his signature on a QE 3. In fact he doesn't want to go to congress and the senate for the QE3 and have to fight and give away everything (including his presidency) for this QE3.
Because he knows that they will do everything they can to make him look bad and show that he cares more about the bankers and the EU than working class americans. In fact the republicans will use all the democrats arguments against them in order to bring Obama down.
"There is hope for recovery if the market is allowed to find its own level - "it will get better, but the deleveraging pain still has to be taken all over the world."
Sadly not as long as the fiat crack candy men (Bernanke and various other henchmen) are on the job. No way in hell are they not going to print.
But eventually we will all be in agony.
Hey, it's an election year and the public is demanding candy... lol
That's when a real leader steps up, not a pantywaist politician
It doesn't appear that we elect real leaders, and the politicians certainly won't appoint them.
It will be a while yet before it is understood that oil scarcity is the cause of all this and financial gobbledygook is the patter of charlatons.
You can't grow population to 7 billion and expect it all to work when oil extraction rate is flat.
so, crash:
Oil probably does play a significant part in things, but it's not "the" cause for this. The easy money, artificially low interest rates of the Fed and other central banks around the world blew bubbles as those policies always have in the past, and then the economies crashed, like they always do.
Unfortunately, the idiots in charge still haven't learned their lesson and are digging the hole ever deeper in panic stricken fashion.
They're making things worse, just as they did in The Great Depression.
Um.. http://nepis.net/images/FreeCandy.jpg ?
Reminds me of reading about the French Revolution and that even the most respected, prudent and noblist man could not resist printing money as a cure all.
Fiat money inflation in France - Part 1: John Law
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7zvNV-vkEzc
That's a good point, but wouldn't that analogy require that we have respected, prudent and noble men and women in positions of leadership today?
Supposedly that's why Our Lord was born 2,000+ years ago, He couldn't find three wise men today.
Santelli for VP!!!!!!! or Sec of Treasury or Care taker of dissolution of UN on Americas soil or bankster FRAUD prosecuter.
This is not the hope you are looking for.
S&P has taken out its 200DMA and crossed into correction territory. 1202 is the next major trend line that I see ...
And that's still another 7% down from here. That trendline is very important too, because it goes all the way back to the March 09 lows. That would be an interesting point for the FedGov to start jawboning, but all they can do is create credit, which is what got us into this mess in the first place. It's a very sad situation for all the true patriots out there.
black swan: I own your rules.
Santelli: I did not see that comming.
black swan: That is why it is called a black swan. BTW, nice narrative. It sounds like it could be true.
you are listening to a floor bookie for your economic advice? you deseve everything that happens to you next. I wouldnt trust that sign language monkey with my pizza delivery.
Yeah. No PHD = No credence.
come on
you can't afford delivery!
good point. i cant afford anything with deferred toilet paper payouts.
I'm guessing a CA resident?
ouch, sorry
if only. CT. where the men are white and the sheep are nervous.
Sheep mating call?
"ZIP"
precisely.....!!
You slap simplistic labels on people and are incapable of judging what they say on its own merits. Good luck with that.
so he makes an interesting point. big deal. shall i catalogue all the bullshit he has spouted over the years? if youre relying on him to decrease the intellectual fog that is presently the market, either your employer on wall st should fire you for non original thinking or you are completely bonkers. chances are both. but then again, you are probably a broker too and have no concept of anything beyong margin and hardly care if you are right or wrong so long as your suckers trade thru you. good luck with that.and mines a vodka soda.
Dude, first off - lay off the blow on this fine Friday afternoon, and notch it down a level or two. Second, I doubt anyone is taking Santelli's point about rules and extrapolating from it to manage their books. Third, if you look at the data, your personal circumstances are at odds with those of the median U.S. household, which has experienced stagnant wages (declining on a real basis) and myriad other issues. But no one gives a shit about your specific situation. The pushback you're hearing has to do with your assertion that you're representative of the norm. You ain't, bro.
amazing how many clueless brokers are voting these posts. You shouldnt be reading, you should be cold calling your next victims. The writing is on the wall for you. Youre going to be Goldman Sached by technology. you are the arseholes of the system. you are the excrement of the beast. You will be shit out first.
Here is a link to the John Taylor Op-Ed in WSJ (via google link):
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405270230367400457743477423881796...
excerpt:
"reformers should pay close attention to what the great economist and philosopher Friedrich A. Hayek wrote in the middle years of the last century.
Hayek argued that the case for rules-based policy goes beyond economics and should appeal to all those concerned about assaults on freedom. He wrote in his classic 1944 book, "The Road to Serfdom," that "nothing distinguishes more clearly conditions in a free country from those in a country under arbitrary government than the observance in the former of the great principles known as the Rule of Law."
Hayek added, "Stripped of all technicalities, this means that government in all its actions is bound by rules fixed and announced beforehand—rules which make it possible to foresee with fair certainty how the authority will use its coercive powers in given circumstances and to plan one's individual affairs on the basis of this knowledge.""
hey, T-oralist!
seen this about L-A-W?
RALPH NADER
Obama At Large
anything about the Consitutional requirement that money = gold&silver coinage in the nyt stuff?
does it go intoL the LAW to protectWeThePeeps from tyrrany and banksterism and financial and political OPPRESSION?
the actual law as it is written and now stands respected ONLY in the breach and not some fuking abstraction?
hello? hello? anybody there? anybody?
Thanks for sharing the article
Nothing is predictable in this day and age.
Charms and Beads
I feel sorry for the old folks on fixed incomes and/or living off their savings...COLA will be negative for them this year while food prices continue to rise.
An Apple iPad a day keeps the hunger away.
I think this particular app should numb the pain a bit.
I hope the planned distraction doesn't delay the elections...
This is waaaay tooo late. The double whammy will come for those on fixed incomes who get chased out of bonds in the past few year's environment and into the equity meat grinder if QE3 doesn't materialize. Like being caught out in the open in No Man's Land and soemone shoots a flare.....
Oh yeah... this is an x shaped ambush for a lot of those who are betting the farm on QEIII at the June meeting... it will probably happen but if not... no cover-no air support. good night.
The first rule of an emergency -
Those in power will always use the emergency to exploit those without.
"Governments break rules"?
Really, about how the motherfucking money behind the government puppets break the rules and then re-writes them so they won't get in trouble.
Restoring the rule of law and contracts would require locking up the entire status quo.
Now Santelli wants to talk about rules? Fuck you Santelli you paper-pushing fuck.
The junks will provide insight into how many fascist fucks don't like rules, LMFAO!!!!!
Rodney King:"Can't we all just get along"
Obama:"Can't we all just get a government check"
Forcing people with no job to pay higher prices is a failed concept? Bollocks, that was the plan all along.
Whats a bollocks?
The big part just below Michelle Obama's lower back.
So there is some truth on cnbc. I am impressed.
tables turned around...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLNkIM7pcYE
alright money-masters, just look into tyler's left eye; and then relax. let all the tension melt and then flow slowly up from the tips in your fingers and toes. all your consciousness will channel in one and only one thought, a single idea, which is nothingness. find your nothingness in our left eye. now, i will put my right hand before your face and will direct your eyes to close with my fingers. relax into nothingness...just relax. at the end of the video, you will know what must be done. you will awaken on the other side; and you will be happy.
may the peace of vacuous nothingness envelop you. we own the future.
one of us is going down (guess who).
got the message now?,
janus
Good clip. It shows that the kool-aid drinkers think just like we do when they are allowed to go off the reservation while live on TV. Since I haven't seen the Mittens interview, I wonder if TPTB in CNBC let them ask those great questions to Mittens in the interview. I bet they conveniently forgot them!
Mitt can't even hire the right people to spell Amercia properly how they hell is he going to be better than Obomber?
Come on. It's the proof readers fault or mispelled by a union printer per Alinskee.
At least he knows, there isn't "57" states
There are 57 states if you include all the bailed out enterprises.
Really though they both suck; I wasn't bashing one turd to try and put a shine on the other (no offense TF).
Doesn't matter, the game at this point is played by citizens either voting for Mitt or not... staying home or writing in Donald Duck or any other better choice is actually a vote to retain the monster.
O and Rmoney are two heads of the same monster. Get with reality.
If they remove the equities prop now the public pension funds go boom....so now there are many choices the repentant cyclical recessionists can make but all of them are different degrees of BAD.
Well! I hadn't put the pensions and equities together. Great Point!
Yep. But is HAS to happen. Even without the propping up to meet the magic 8% they are getting bitch slapped.
Riotpalooza for pensioners.
What if doing nothing causes the market to go to zero though? How is that "winning"? Not that I'm complaining of course. I was under the impression that the plan was NOT to be Japan?
Because Santelli was such a good trader he decided to quit and become a media waiter for 500k a year. two points. first i doubt he was any good at all because good traders dont quit and 2, why are you listening to this sanctimonious prick? do you also listen to your barber for marital advice? how about the lawn man to choose which pot to smoke. actually the lawn man.....
Yes because the only reason people choose a particular job/lifestyle is because of how much it pays.
Forget that whole 'I like doing this' or 'I think I can make a difference' thing, that's for losers.
in finance there is only one god. in every other profession you are absolutely right.
Seems like there is always a new puppet that shows up on days when GOLD makes big moves. Just saying.
the two men (who notably have been actual market participants as opposed to mere observers) take on the uncertainty and unpredictability that weighs heavy on our global economies as governments break the rules time and time again - and took advantage of crisis "getting away with anything"
__________________________________________________
That is the power of US citizens: being able to speak one and the opposite in the same breath.
Uncertainty, unpredictability, time and time again.
It is the usual: government is a symptom. US citizen governments are predictable and certain, they break the rules and get away with it
So the crisis has little to do with government unpredictable behaviour since by this US citizen's own admission, the behaviour of US citizen government is predictable.
But as US citizens want to see the root of the crisis in the government, in the State, one has to end by labelling a behaviour depicted as predictable unpredictable.
Predictable is unpredictable.
US citizenism.
Government ain't the symptom. People who are assholes, are the symptom.
And right now, governments around the world, are VERY long assholes.
An.. STFU and get back to your Foxconn shift. We need more i-gadgets
Looks like Gold and Silver are starting to tell us something... and it's coming through loud and clear.
not holding my breath.
Interesting Santelli compared US treasuries to FB shares.
ouch.
Lets see, everythings leveraged again 40-1 or so, so if we 'delevrage' things will be 40x shittier? Wow pretty much sucks.
the market's not re-setting because that spanner in the works, Govt, keeps muscling in
..when does DC run out of muscle?
A month after Europe blows up?
Welcome to financial inbreeding.
When the 99% stop paying our debts and our taxes.
Look's like the plunge protection team tried but just didn't have enough in the tank today.
gonna be a sleepless weekend in some places..
As the bankers and politicians decide what’s good for Joe Six Pack while raking in all the chips, the American public is distracted by the mainstream media hyping the political pretense of a two-party system. In reality we have a one-party system where both parties work together as one, i.e., Republicans and Democrats tearing each other apart while actually working together to benefit the elite one percent in Washington and New York City.
It reminds me of the joke told by Michael Snyder of the website “Economic Collapse:
“A corporate executive, a tea party member and a union worker are all sitting at a table when a plate with a dozen cookies arrives. Before anyone else can make a move, the CEO reaches out to rake in 11 of the cookies. When the other two look at him in surprise, the CEO locks eyes with the tea party member: ‘You better watch him,’ the executive says with a nod toward the union worker: ‘He wants a piece of your cookie.’”
You left out who is paying for the cookies. It makes a difference.
You've heard of the iron curtain, well Americans live inside the "Steel Triangle" WallStreet, DC, Hollywood.
I can't wait for the bank runs (I just got paid today, I took out every fucking dime).
We'll call this era: "The Great Pullout of 2012".
classic santelli does an encore at ~3:08pm -CNBC -- maria the chuckling hopium pusher, scott the hopium mule, steve aka. 'mouth-of-marbles', and starring the "Rickster of ChicagoLand"!
while debating Whopper makes a conjecture of unfathomable stupidity, all the while stevie 'nix' is babbling on, and suddenly, the truthsayer, aka. rickster interrupts abruptly, and calls him aka.'scotty-beam-me-up', delusional, with maria bursting out in laughter.
great friday afternoon humor :-)
If the Fed’s role is to be a flywheel rather than a permanent sponge and store of false wealth, then at some point it should be selling bonds rather than buying them. At what interest rate does that happen if not 1.5% on the 10 year and 2.5% on the 30 year? Now would seem like a good time to me. Actually, that’s exactly what I’ve been doing, slowly but surely selling my longer term bonds for the last 12 months.
In other words, these so called Keynesian’s at the Fed aren’t even practicing Keynesianism. It’s their own brand of voodoo monetary policy they’re foisting on us aimed at nothing but saving Wall Street’s ass at everyone else's expense. Orgainized crime to put it more bluntly.
The gist of this article is if you do as we say, we'll "recover" and have "growth." Well, growth (net of debt) is in a 40+ year downtrend. If growth is possible (I don't think it will happen), the answer will involve amazing technical breakthroughs from 0.0000001% of the population. And, of all the ZHers, there's probably one or two people at most who can get us back to "growth." So, the rest of us should live within the means and prepare for a different future that has less wealth.
As for the rules, yeah made for someone else to break. Lawlessness and shadows rule the day.
but
I think if they would raise rates but actually loan money the economy would improve, but there is so much debt.
but
I think people (and countries more so now) need to realize that debt is not income, it's debt.
A house, a car, a water project, electric plant, hell maybe even a TV, but when it gets to financing bread, gas, salaries, the light bill on long term debt there is trouble brewing that can't be wished away.
No matter what super hard crash landing.
Picking up on the video's conversation about low interest rates are precipitated by the anticipation of QE3, if Floating Rate Notes (FRNs) issuance is imminent, doesn't that potentially leave those with fixed-rate notes holding the bag?
As discussed here on ZH, the thought was that FRNs were a harbinger of higher interest rates dictate by the market.
Hang Seng just blew out 2012 gains. It's about S&P futures now.
The global stocks market will ping pong off into a negative feedback loop.
tight.
Is the Euro Ending or Beginning?
http://www.cnhedge.com/thread-6926-1-1.html