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Santelli On The Chain Of Insolvency

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While it is not unusual for everyone's favorite truth-seeker in Chicago to cut to the chase and simplify the over-complex world of data and nuance that is thrust upon us day after day, CNBC's Rick Santelli outdoes himself today. Initially addressing the retail sales and housing data dichotomy, Rick jumps above the noise of day-to-day data and focuses on what is critical - in his view - the weather and the debt. If only he had used the term "It's the debt stupid" as it would have made for better headlines but the clip below should help anyone and everyone decide on whether this dip is for buying or fading/waiting. In the end, Santelli notes, "It is simple. There are questions about weather and questions about debt. First one we'll know more about in the next two or three months. [For the] latter, we'll have to look toward our neighbors in Europe to see how it ultimately turns out and see if our political class is going to do a better job than the European bureaucracies."

 

 

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Mon, 04/16/2012 - 14:17 | 2349173 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

US citizen Santelli spreading class warfare again...

Take note how it refers to the US citizen political personal in Europe as bureaucracies while refering to elected personal in the US as political class.

US Santelli incitating class division and warfare...

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 14:24 | 2349178 LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

Are you sayin' Santelli is  good cop bad cop? Oh Lordy!!!

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 14:29 | 2349210 johnu1978
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I've been telling people since 2006(when the depression began) to learn primitive and sustainable skills. When the dollar crashes the food supply will be cutoff and people will have to be able to sustain themselves locally.

Here's a great website about primitive classes: http://www.heartrootnatureconnection.com

Check it out when you have a chance. You'll be glad you did. :o)

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 14:38 | 2349249 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

That is a good one.

But lets face: all these means of sustaining oneself in case of societal collapse will be patrolled by people with guns.

They wont let you have access to the hunting grounds.

And if you plan to defend your land with arrows and bows, well, they will take it.

Many guns in the US of A, much ammo, and NATO round performs better against unarmoured targets.

And more than anything else, a lot of US citizens...

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 14:50 | 2349278 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Who all caught his horned owl hand symbol at 1:10.

Anti-establishment, establishment man.

Who shows two like that?

ori

stream-of-consciousnesstwo/

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:35 | 2349445 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Someone who doesn't want to unintentionally trade contracts while giving an interview on the floor of the CBOT...or maybe he's just a UT fan.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:47 | 2349504 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

I doubt the longhorn bit unless he is from there.

That was a flash, count on it. 

ori

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:55 | 2349533 Agent P
Agent P's picture

UT was sarcasm.  Still, I think you're over analyzing it.

Tue, 04/17/2012 - 03:37 | 2350712 vxpatel
vxpatel's picture

Yes agent p, we shouldn't think too much right...? we shouldn't think more than we're allowed to think...

Tue, 04/17/2012 - 11:30 | 2351588 phalfa5
phalfa5's picture

Baseball, the Great American Pastime, second only to IDOL.  Umps signal 2 outs this way.  And yes, this is the year for Da' Cubs.  Or next year, maybe.....

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:34 | 2349435 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

"all these means of sustaining oneself in case of societal collapse will be patrolled by people with guns"

 

Idiots and their guns.  Society will never collaspe that far. Point your gun at someone and see how quick you're tossed in jail.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 21:30 | 2350272 Lednbrass
Lednbrass's picture

No doubt you are correct and government will always be there to protect you, it is certainly doing fantastically well and is very well funded these days. After all, its not like there are any historical examples of nations empires crashing to the ground at high velocity resulting in the destruction of its population and power structure.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 14:57 | 2349296 Canucklehead
Canucklehead's picture

You won't think they are prmitive skills if you need them.

If you are serious about this approach, go join the local 4-H club.  You will meet people who work together and are knowledgeable about the area you want to learn.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 17:46 | 2349886 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

This depression is getting worse and eventually we will know and see how insolvent our govt. is.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 17:58 | 2349919 johnu1978
johnu1978's picture

The Depression is getting worse by the day!

-John
Edible Plant Tours - Bowmaking Classes
http://www.heartrootnatureconnection.com

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 14:27 | 2349206 Everybodys All ...
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well you and your dnc could always rendition him.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 14:30 | 2349216 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You still mad.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 14:56 | 2349295 Clay Hill
Clay Hill's picture

...as a hatter.

http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/mad-as-a-hatter.html

He probably inhaled too much mercury-laden smoke from those coal fired power plants while stopping to shit on the side of the road.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 14:32 | 2349228 4realmoney
4realmoney's picture

Great video on why the threat of gold confiscation in the US is a complete marketing scheme:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6K8JXjE57Ec

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 14:34 | 2349232 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Bureaucracies and political class are all the same in my book.....corrupt non producers who try to control other people's lives to make up for some inadequacy in their lives.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 18:05 | 2349926 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Bingo!

Nobel Prize for the Dr.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:01 | 2349307 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

I am shocked he has not being canned yet! Considering that CNBC is just a marketing station for Wall Street!

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 18:10 | 2349937 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

CNBC sent Ricky on a 'training course' after chopping up credit cards on-air telling President 'Mega-Debt' Bumma to stop spending

Ricky returned a bit sheepish for a week or two, then went back to his normal temper tantrums (always very entertaining ..anything is compared to Steve Liesman)

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:20 | 2349380 candyman
candyman's picture

With Europe taking the lead this is what we have coming to the US. Similar activity in Englend and NY.

  http://downloads.cbn.com/cbnnewsplayer/cbnplayer.swf?aid=17933 VIDEO FROM PARIS THAT HAS NOT BEEN SHOWN IN THE U.S.A. YET  
Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:46 | 2349488 john39
john39's picture

I have an idea... i know that the bankers have stolen everything and the economy is finished.... and the U.S. is about to start another freaking war...  but is scare the red state people with pictures of Muslims (gasp!), they will fall right back in line and do exactly what they are told.  /s

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 21:33 | 2350280 Lednbrass
Lednbrass's picture

There are worse possibilities than that- tell the blue state inhabitants that gubmint checks wont keep rolling in and they have to actually do something useful in their lives because nobody is going to carry them any longer. As soon as the money stops rolling in from Uncle Sugar their cities will burn within a month.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 14:27 | 2349181 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

"see if our political class is going to do a better job than the European bureaucracies." 

It seems to me that our political class is doing a much better job at ramping up the police state. That's one thing they do well.

 

 

 

 

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:55 | 2349538 ghostfaceinvestah
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I don't know - I think the Brits are a step ahead of us on that front.  England is a real police state.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:05 | 2349572 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Well, more of a surveillance state/nanny state than a police state.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:53 | 2349762 hardcleareye
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Look what Canada is doing.... 

"Major job cuts at the Canada Border Services Agency could undermine national security and public safety, according to the union that represents employees at the agency."

"A total of 1,137 border agency employees were notified on Wednesday that they could lose their jobs as part of a massive wave of federal budget cuts, according to the Public Service Alliance of Canada (PSAC)."

Now if we could only get the US to follow suit!

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 21:39 | 2350290 Lednbrass
Lednbrass's picture

The Border Control types are one of the few Federal agencies that actually have the potential to do something useful if they actually had to do their jobs and cut the flow from Mexico. The rest of the Federral government could be hacked by a third without losing much.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 14:25 | 2349186 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Santelli needs to be in our government somewhere.

I don't care where, just put him in there somewhere. We need some bastion of common sense to protect us from the people we elect.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 14:27 | 2349208 haskelslocal
haskelslocal's picture

Then he wouldn't exist.

 

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 14:38 | 2349245 Au Shucks
Au Shucks's picture

Wait a second, you lost me.  who elects them again? 

 

And why do you suggest government is necessary for anything good or positive for the people?

 

has Bob been drinking with Bob?

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:02 | 2349302 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

The best argument against democracy is a conversation with the average voter

-Winston Churchill

...yes, protection from the people we elect.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 14:22 | 2349188 Imminent Collapse
Imminent Collapse's picture

He gets paid for this?

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 14:54 | 2349286 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

That, immienet, is the glittering edge of the service industry. The motor mouth. 

They are EVERYWHERE!

ori

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 14:24 | 2349196 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

When i look at the faces of the pumpers on TV, i see heavy stress, lack of sleep, and confusion.

No need for vloume with pictures like that.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:10 | 2349342 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i too prefer well-rested plumpers
much easier to turn

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 14:30 | 2349220 haskelslocal
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All this is like a man who lies to his wife. "I didn't have sex with that lady". None of it matters, the wife knows it happened but she cannot "prove" it. So she stays with the lie, sometimes for years. Eventually, she finds the matchbook in the suit pocket as she's doing His laundry and she just says, wheather she leaves or not, "I've had enough".

That's our economy and the monkey's running it. We've all been fucked kids. It's real wheather we can prove it or not. Now we're just sitting around conversing about it as if some form of denial will make it change. And it cannot.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 14:36 | 2349243 q99x2
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2 or 3 months before we don't know.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 14:38 | 2349247 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

I have a feeling Santelli will be at FBN, soon.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 14:47 | 2349265 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

global insolvency imminent?

L0L!!! immanent & transcendent, too, BiCheZ?

zombieFiatMysterium

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:44 | 2349740 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

Slewie you're showning your age.....;)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISmgOrhELXs

"....And out the door I went.."

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 14:46 | 2349266 t0mmyBerg
t0mmyBerg's picture

Its funny but I was just grabbing a sandwich at Subway here an hour or two ago and Santelli was coming in the door while I was leaving.  He kindly held the door and smiled as we exchanged pleasantries and I went out.  Had it been some muckety muck in Government coming in, I would have been brushed aside by Secret Service or pinned to the ground without so much as a by the by from the muckety muck.  Of course such a Muckety Muck would not have been going to Subway for anything so it never would have happened.  They would have been eating truffles and caviar on the taxpayers nickel in a suite on the top floor somewhere.  (Like when they closed the Kennedy Freeway [I-90, the main road into town] at 5pm on a weekday, snarling trafic for Hundreds of Thousands of people going about their business, so President Hu could use an fing motocade from OHare instead of being shuttled into town in an fing helicopter - brains?).  Sucks being outside the political elite.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 14:50 | 2349277 brown_hornet
brown_hornet's picture

They will toss him out of there too, if he tells too much truth. Just like Judge N.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 14:53 | 2349289 Herdee
Herdee's picture

And the insolvency of many Companies in America that have been destroyed by corrupt executives that used corrupt law firms to design their schemes is starting to be partially solved.Yes,going after law firms and the roles that they play in trying to wipe out American firms is now gaining traction.The PONZI destroying America takes many forms but IEAM (Industrial Enterprises of America)a small industrial firm stood up to one of the largest law firms in America.That law firm is Baker McKenzie.Soon thet pay up big and thir role will be revealed.What?You say has this got to do with the big story here?Lots.Law firms play an important role in developing these schemes to help destroy America.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 14:57 | 2349298 evolutionx
evolutionx's picture
Facts about Poverty!

 

1)      47.8% of households that receive food stamps are working, because having a job is not enough to keep them out of poverty.

2)      The number of people on food stamps has increased by 20 million over the past five years. 

3)      10 million more Americans fallen below the poverty line since 2006.

4)      About half of all Americans are now either living in poverty or are considered to be low income.  So is America a "wealthy" nation?

5)      The number of children living in poverty in America keeps rising year after year. The %age of children living in poverty in the US increased from 16.9% in 2006 to nearly 22% in 2010.

 

http://www.secretnews-compact.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=966:fun-facts-about-poverty&catid=1:latest-news&Itemid=50

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:10 | 2349329 Alcoholic Nativ...
Alcoholic Native American's picture

The poor in America are the suckers that have to work for a living, but on a positive note, this number is actually going down.

 

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 18:13 | 2349941 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Number 5 - We import peasants from the third world who reproduce at a rapid rate, we finance large families of single mothers, more kids, more money. Of course we have more and more children living in poverty. When you use the government to pay for something, you will get more of what you are paying for. People who work at good jobs and are married have one or two children. People who live on welfare have 4 or 5. Get it?

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 20:09 | 2350133 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Discuss, please, the number of people now on "food stamps" who traditionally would not have been on "food stamps" but for a concerted marketing effort to pump up the rolls.  For example, college students who now qualify for coverage.  The number of people of food stamps is interesting, but not necessarily an indicator of the direction of poverty in the USA when you strip out a number of things that make the time series questionable.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:02 | 2349309 FinalCollapse
FinalCollapse's picture

I like Rantelli.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:09 | 2349326 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Wait until Obama pressures DeMarco into principal writedowns. Insolvency galore!!!!

The never-ending tale of the Administration and Congress pressuring FHFA Ed DeMarco to write down principal on residential mortgages is reminiscent of the Marx Brothers zany, non-nonsensical films like “Duck Soup,” “A Day at the Races,” and “A Night at the Opera.” Even worse, DeMarco seems to be wilting like a month-old celery stalk in the frig.

Vicki Needham at The Hill has a nice review of the latest Marx Brothers zany comedy.

Frank Keating, president and chief executive of the American Bankers Association: “Principal reductions create an incentive for a huge group of borrowers who have continued making their payments, despite lower home prices, to stop paying in hopes of principal forgiveness. A broad principal reduction program would result in fewer investors who are willing to lend for housing finance, increased borrowing costs and tighter credit availability.”

I agree with Mr. Keating completely. Principal reductions create enormous moral hazard and perverse incentives. And will dry up future mortgage funding (who wants to invest in the U.S. housing market when politicians can violate contract law and intervene in private markets when politically expedient?).

The FHFA estimates of the Treasury plan show that about 691,000 eligible homeowners would receive, on average, about $51,000 in loan forgiveness. Using a principal reduction program would save $9.9 billion, compared with $8.2 billion under the current version of HAMP. The costs to taxpayers of Treasury’s incentives programs would be about $3.8 billion, according to the FHFA analysis.

As I have stated before (at DeMarco’s talk at the Brookings Institute), there is NO EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE THAT THIS WILL WORK! We have NOT been through a loan modification cycle of 4 years with principal reductions to understand if the benefits outweigh the costs. They might was well being using a Ouija Board to make predictions about borrower behavior.

My favorite comment in Vicki’s article is from House Government Reform and Oversight Committee ranking member Elijah Cummings (Md.): “I have been saying for many months that we need to focus on data rather than ideological or political opposition to principal reductions,”

Focus on WHAT data? There ISN’T ANY!!!

“Although I am encouraged that Mr. DeMarco has now begun to move in this direction, we continue to await the documents and analyses we requested months ago, and the jury is still out on whether he will act to serve both homeowner and taxpayer best interests.”

So, Rep. Cummings is waiting for DeMarco to perform more Ouija Board experiments.

Sadly, the Federal government is teetering on another disastrous intrusion into the housing and housing finance markets. And based on the National Homeowership Strategy under Clinton, this will be disastrous as well.

I guess the new Marx Brothers are Baracko, Benno, Timmo and Shauno

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:09 | 2349334 Snakeeyes
Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:24 | 2349396 Slipmeanother
Slipmeanother's picture

Santelli is spot on, the EU has bureaucrats unelected idiots in Brussels while the US has a political class IE elected idiots in Washington

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 15:39 | 2349454 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Santelli's been spot on right along. He could be one of the Tylers.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:08 | 2349584 indio007
indio007's picture

Santelli = Meh.

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:18 | 2349625 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

The Big Picture Wile E. Coyote Equity Top.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-24/market-analysis

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 16:19 | 2349633 narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

Steve Keen made some interesting suggestions, near the end of his talk last Saturday. I have quoted a very, very small portion.

See the link for the video - http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=js9WBi_ztvg

And this link for the text - http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/

First is what he called Jubilee Shares, changing the lifetimes of equity shares available on the stock market. The second he called PILLS, limiting the debt that can be placed on a house.

1. Jubilee Shares: To redefine shares so that, if purchased from a company directly, they last forever, but after a minimal number of sales (say seven), they become Jubilee Shares that last another 50 years before they expire; and

2. Property Income Limited Leverage: To limit the debt that can be secured against a property to ten times the annual rental of that property.

The explanation for Jubilee Shares is -

"Currently, 99% of all trading on the stock market involves speculators selling pre-existing shares to other speculators. This is undertaken with borrowed money in the hope of exploiting price bubbles like that set by Yahoo! in the DotCom Bubble (see Figure 13), when that the lending itself largely causes the price bubbles.

If instead shares on the secondary market lasted only 50 years, then even the Greater Fool couldn’t be enticed to buy them with borrowed money–since their terminal value would be zero. Instead a buyer would only purchase a share on the secondary market in order to secure a flow of dividends for 50 years (or less). One of the two great sources of rising unproductive debt would be eliminated.

The objective of this proposal is to make leveraged speculation on existing shares unattractive, while still making funding IPOs and share issues attractive, and enabling genuine price discovery."

The explanation for PILLS is -

"Some debt is needed to purchase a house, since the cost of building a new house far exceeds the average wage. But debt greater than perhaps 3 times average annual wages drives not house construction, but house price bubbles.

Property Income Limited Leverage (“the PILL”) would break this positive feedback loop by basing the maximum that can be lent for a property purchase, not on the income of the borrower, but on a multiple of the income-earning potential of the property itself.

With this reform, all would-be purchasers would be on equal footing with respect to their level of debt-financed spending, and the only way to trump another buyer would be to put more non-debt-financed money into purchasing a property.

It would still be possible–indeed necessary–to pay more than ten times a property’s annual rental to purchase it. But then the excess of the price over the loan would be genuinely the savings of the buyer, and an increase in the price of a house would mean a fall in leverage, rather than an increase in leverage as now. There would be a negative feedback loop between house prices and leverage. That hopefully would stop house price bubbles developing in the first place, and take dwellings out of the realm of speculation back into the realm of housing, where they belong."

Obviously, he can explain it much better then I.

Read it and curse Greenspan, Bernanke, Krugman, etc etc etc

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 18:57 | 2350006 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Our political class??? OH NOEZ WE'RE DOOMED

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 20:04 | 2350127 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

"... we'll have to look toward our neighbors in Europe to see how it ultimately turns out and see if our political class is going to do a better job than the European bureaucracies."

 

Talk about going to a farm-league ball game!

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 23:08 | 2350433 Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture

Wish Santelli was in Washington rather than Chicago. Never mind.....he'd probably be offed if he was. You Go Rick!

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