Saxo Bank's 10 "Outrageous Predictions" For "2012: The Perfect Storm"

As we wind down 2011, the time for predictions for what is to come as nigh. Having posted what UBS believes their biggest list of surprises for 2012 will be earlier, we next proceed with out long-term favorite - Saxobank's list of "Outrageous Predictions" for what the bank has dubbed "2012: the Perfect Storm." Mostly proposed tongue in cheek (unlike predictions by other pundits who actually believe their own delusions), the list of 10 suggestions represents nothing less than an attempt to force people "out of the box" and look at the world with a set of "what if" eyes. Because if there is anything 2011 taught is, it is not to discount any one event from happening. As Saxo says: "Should one, two or three of our Outrageous Predictions come to pass, it would make 2012 a year of tremendous change. This may not necessarily be a negative thing either - and given the  structure and uncertainties in the marketplace here at the end of 2011, we would suggest that even if none of our predictions come to pass, equally important and totally unanticipated events will. Sometimes we need to get to a new starting point before we can gain the right perspective. We hope 2012 will be the year where we start on the long march towards re-establishing jobs, growth and confidence." Naturally, the best outcome for 2012 would be the end of the broken status quo model, and a global fresh reset... but not even we are that deluded to believe that the quadrillions in credit money (real or synthetic) will allow such a revolutionary event to occur in such a brief period of time. At least not before everything is thrown at the intractable problem unfortunately has just one possible long-term outcome. In the meantime, here, to help readers expand their minds, is Saxo Bank's list of "Outrageous Predictions" for 2012.

From Saxo's Chief Economist Steen Jakobsen

2012: THE PERFECT STORM

Generating this year’s Outrageous Predictions has been even more of a pleasure than usual, as it seems that never before have there been so many path uncertainties for the future, so we have had an infinite variety of scenarios to draw on. As usual, we try to keep at least a measure of consistency across the predictions by using a unifying theme. For this year, we settled on the theme for 2012: The Perfect Storm.

Saxo Bank’s yearly Outrageous Predictions report has always been one of our more popular publications, and understandably so, as it frees us and our readers from the constraints of the high probability events in the middle of the supposed bell curve of possibilities. But there are a few key points I need to underline about this publication:

The first is that we always focus on “fat tail” predictions, i.e. events that are unlikely to happen, but are perhaps far more likely than the market appreciates. Saxo Bank first launched this publication 10 years ago as an exercise in looking at events which, should they happen, would change the outlook and performance of markets. This was before the concept of Black Swans was popularised. Our publication was rather inspired by option theory and looking at the tail-risk – an event which based on odds or logic has a very small chance of happening, but somehow still happens far more often than any model is able to predict.

Consider volatility during the 2008 Financial Crisis which no model could even imagine. Or think about a natural disaster like the earthquake/tsunami that hit Fukushima. Disaster planning could supposedly handle a very substantial earthquake and Fukushima was supposedly located in a low risk zone. But instead, Japan suffered an earthquake of severity which seemed impossible in Japan’s geology, and the resultant tsunami wiped out back-up power. The unimaginable happened once again.

Saxo Bank’s yearly Outrageous Predictions are not intended as real predictions and certainly not as “forecasts” in any way. Rather, the Outrageous Predictions are 10 important events with under-recognised probabilities in our view. Should any of them come to pass, they would change the way we need to analyse, trade and report the markets.

It is also important to note that our Outrageous Predictions nearly always have a negative bias, which is in fact a natural antidote to how the market normally operates. Human beings have a tendency to think positively, which is a natural part of our motivation to get up and go to work every day and a vital part of our survival instinct. Day in and day out we think about building a better future based on a continuation of the present.

This is good for morale but does a poor job of preparing us for reality.

In that light, please do not let our Outrageous Predictions get you down. They have been prepared in the spirit of encouraging you to think outside the box and prepare for world-altering events. Thinking outside the box is rarely a comfortable exercise, but neither is dealing with an unpleasant surprise for which one has failed to prepare in any meaningful way.

Should one, two or three of our Outrageous Predictions come to pass, it would make 2012 a year of tremendous change. This may not necessarily be a negative thing either - and given the structure and uncertainties in the marketplace here at the end of 2011, we would suggest that even if none of our predictions come to pass, equally important and totally unanticipated events will. Sometimes we need to get to a new starting point before we can gain the right perspective. We hope 2012 will be the year  where we start on the long march towards re-establishing jobs, growth and confidence.

Maybe, just maybe, our Outrageous Predictions can at least lead to a discussion on how we can prevent some of them from happening. We would like nothing more than to be proven wrong on negative views, but only if they are replaced with something better than the current central bank and government-manipulated paradigm.

OUTRAGEOUS PREDICTIONS 2012

1 - THE STOCK OF APPLE INC PLUMMETS 50 PERCENT FROM 2011 HIGH

No sovereign or corporate empire has ever maintained its superior position for long because attacks mount and loyalty fades. Going into 2012 Apple will find itself faced with multiple competitors such as Google, Amazon, Microsoft/Nokia, and Samsung across its most innovative products, the iPhone and iPad. Apple will be unable to maintain its market share of 55 percent (three times as much as Android) and 66 percent on the iOS and iPad as Android will gain further momentum and Amazon’s low priced Kindle Fire will cut deeply into Apple’s tablet reign. In relation to current earnings Apple is not expensive but expectations about future profit growth will come down hard as competition reaches insane levels and crushes Apple’s profit margins.

2 - EU DECLARES EXTENDED BANK HOLIDAY DURING 2012

The December EU Treaty changes prove insufficient to solve EU funding needs – particularly those in Italy – and the EU debt crisis returns with a vengeance by mid-year. In response, the stock market finally caves in and drops 25 percent in short order, prompting EU politicians to call an extended bank holiday – closing all European exchanges and banks for a week or more. EU leaders gather like Vatican cardinals at a conclave to hammer out a “New Europe”. This could result in EU officials overstepping their mandate once again with new burdensome command and control measures that further violate the principles of the EU and free markets. Regardless, this “final” attempt leads straight to a popular overthrow of the old order and beginning of destruction of the sovereign debt time bomb. A period of pain is inevitable, but this will quickly allow a “new EU” to regroup with new membership and a new base from which its economies and markets can start planning for the future, rather than dealing with the mistakes of the past.

3 - A YET UNANNOUNCED CANDIDATE TAKES THE WHITE HOUSE

In 1992, a savvy, yet highly erratic Texas billionaire named Ross Perot managed to take advantage of a recessionary economy and popular disgust with US politics and reap 18.9 percent of the popular vote. Step forward to 2008, and Obama promises “real change” from eight years of Republican rule as the economy is nose-diving. Now, three years of Obama has brought too little change and only additional widespread disillusionment with the entire US political system. Going into the election in 2012, the incumbent Democrats are in ideological disarray and will get the blame for continued economic malaise and the favour-the-rich Republicans will never win the popular vote with the US rich/poor gap at a record width and social tension rising. In short, conditions for a third party candidate have never been riper. Someone smart enough to sense this and with a strong programme for real change throws his hat in the ring early in 2012 and snatches the presidency in November in one of the most pivotal elections in US history, taking 38 percent of the popular vote. A new political order is born.

4 - AUSTRALIA GOES INTO RECESSION

The Chinese locomotive has been losing steam throughout 2011 as investment and real estate led growth becomes harder and harder to come by due to diminishing marginal returns. The effects of the slowing of the up-and-coming Asian giant ripple through Asia Pacific and push other countries into recession. If there ever was a country dependent on the well-being of China it is Australia with its heavy dependence on mining and natural resources. And as China’s demand for these goods weakens Australia is pushed into a recession, which is then exacerbated as the housing sector finally experiences its long overdue crash – a half decade after the rest of the developed world.

5 - BASEL III AND REGULATION FORCE 50 BANK NATIONALISATIONS IN EUROPE

As 2012 begins, pressure will mount on the European banking system as new capital requirements and regulatory pressure force banks to deleverage in a great hurry. This creates a fire sale on financial assets as there are few takers in the market. Troubled sovereigns, structural funding gaps and massive trading books set the scene for the largest bank rescue operation in Europe’s history. Politicians, eager to score points with the public, create a regulatory mob enforcing value destruction in the banking system “in the name of greater good”. A total freeze of the European interbank market forces nervous savers to make bank-runs, as depositors distrust deposit guarantees from insolvent sovereigns. More than 50 banks end up on government balance sheets and several known commercial bank brands cease to exist.

6 - SWEDEN AND NORWAY REPLACE SWITZERLAND AS SAFE HAVENS

Sweden and Norway are at risk of replacing Switzerland as the new safe havens – “risk” because, as we saw with Switzerland, becoming a safe haven in a world of devaluing central banks presents a number of risks to a country’s economy. The capital markets of both countries are far smaller than Switzerland, (the combined FX volume in Sweden and Norway being a mere fraction of Switzerland’s), but the Swiss are aggressively devaluing their currency and money managers are looking for new safe havens for capital. At the same time, Germany and its balance sheet are embroiled in the EU debt debacle and the classic safe haven appeal of 10-year Bunds is fading fast. Sweden and Norway sport excellent current account fundamentals, prudent social policies and skilled and flexible labour forces. Flows into the two countries’ government bonds on safe haven appeal becomes popular enough to drive 10-year rates there to more than 100 basis points below the classic safe haven German Bunds.

7 - SWISS NATIONAL BANK WINS AND CATAPULTS EURCHF TO 1.50

Switzerland’s persistency in fighting the appreciation of its currency will continue to pay off in 2012. After the dramatic failure of direct FX intervention in the market in 2009 and 2010 and after EURCHF threatened to destroy the Swiss economy with its death spiral towards parity in mid-2011, the Swiss National Bank and Swiss government finally joined forces to engineer an aggressive expansion of money supply and established a floor in EURCHF at 1.20. With Swiss fundamentals – particularly export related – continuing to suffer mightily in 2012 from past CHF strength, the SNB and government bear down further to prevent more collateral damage and introduce extensions to existing programmes and even negative interest rates to trigger sufficient capital flight from the traditional safe haven of Switzerland to engineer a move in EURCHF as high as 1.50 during the year, much to the chagrin of those who believe central banks can’t intervene successfully.

8 - USDCNY RISES 10 PERCENT TO 7.00

The impressive growth rates in the world’s second-largest economy, China, since the end of the Great Recession have been predicated on investment and exports. As marginal returns from building million-inhabitant ghost towns diminish and exporters struggle with razor-thin margins due to the advancing CNY China gets to the brink of a “recession”, meaning 5-6 per cent GDP growth. Chinese policymakers come to the rescue of exporters by allowing the CNY to decline against a US Dollar - buoyed by its safe-haven status amid slowing global growth and an on-going Eurozone sovereign debt crisis - and send the pair up to 7.00 for a 10 percent increase.

9 - BALTIC DRY INDEX RISES 100 PERCENT

Despite the dry bulk fleet being expected to outgrow demand in 2012, leading to further over capacity, several factors could surprise resulting in a price spike in the Baltic Dry Index. Lower oil prices in 2012 could lead to an increase in the Baltic Dry Index as operating expenses go down. Brazil and Australia are expected to expand iron ore supply, further leading to lower prices and therefore higher import demand from China to satisfy its insatiable industrial production. In combination with monetary easing this leads to a massive spike in iron ore demand. The last shock that could impact the dry bulk market is exceptional dry weather, due to El Nino, leading to a plunge in hydropower electricity generation and thereby fuelling demand for coal imports.

10 - WHEAT PRICES TO DOUBLE IN 2012

The price of CBOT wheat will double during 2012 after having been the worst performing crop in 2011. The drop was brought about due to a combination of farmers responding to high prices in 2010/11 and normalised weather in the Former Soviet Union. However with 7 billion people on the earth and money printing machines at full throttle bad weather across the world will unfortunately return and make it a tricky year for agricultural products. Wheat especially will rally strongly as speculative investors, who had built up one of the biggest short positions on record, will help drive the price back towards the record high last seen in 2008.

---

And for those curious, here are Saxo's "Outrageous Predictions" from a year earlier.

US CONGRESS BLOCKS BERNANKE’S QE3

As we move into the second half of 2011, politicians and pundits increasingly succeed in putting the Fed in the hot seat for having been the critical enabler of the US housing debacle and resulting bank bailout and public debt catastrophe. Meanwhile, the too-big-to-fail banks are back in deep trouble again as their troubled mortgage portfolios once again threaten their solvency. The Fed’s Bernanke rallies the FOMC to indicate a strong new expansion of monetary policy to once again bail out the troubled banks and/or local governments. Emboldened by the political and popular winds blowing, however, a Ron Paul led challenge of the Fed’s authority sees the Congress blocking the Fed’s authority to expand its balance sheet, and sets up an eventual challenge of the Fed’s dual employment/inflation mandate.

APPLE BUYS FACEBOOK

What do you do when you want domination of the electronic and mobile device consumer market and have no significant presence in social networking? Oh, and a war chest of a mere USD 51 billion? You buy Facebook, the mother lode of (yet to be monetised) social networks. Facebook is worth USD 43 billion, according to sharespost.com. In interviews, Apple CEO Steve Jobs has explained that Apple was in talks with Facebook about partnership opportunities, but that the talks ultimately produced nothing. Facebook was after “onerous terms that we could not agree to”, according to Jobs. At the Web 2.0 Summit Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg called for Apple to ease its approach to connecting Ping with Facebook, and said that Apple had to “get on the bus”. Steve Jobs might get on the bus indeed and buy Facebook outright. It makes perfect sense; Facebook doesn’t compete against Apple and it ‘faces up’ to Google, which Jobs loves since Google has become his new number one enemy. It’s a deal made in heaven… The gigantic 500+ million Facebook user base could be integrated across Apple’s consumer products and services - every Facebook user automatically has an iTunes Store account and FaceTime chat is integrated into Facebook chat. That’s a lot of iOS devices.

US DOLLAR INDEX TOPS 100

The economic growth trajectory in most areas of the world appears healthy for a time in 2011 – at least outside of Europe and Japan. But then trouble occurs in China, where its new 12th five-year plan aimed at increasing consumption fails to function as hoped. With the Chinese industrial base growing more slowly or not at all as a result of the policy shift, the satellite countries dependent on Chinese demand see their economies facing a rough adjustment. This puts global risk appetite in a tail spin, and with the Japanese economy struggling and the Eurozone in disarray, the US dollar suddenly doesn’t look as bad as it did previously. This is especially the case since the market was massively short of the currency at the beginning of the year. The unwinding of these positions pushes the USD index 25% higher to over 100 late in the third quarter of 2011.

US 30-YEAR TREASURY YIELD SLIDES TO 3%

The dollar devaluation policy, with its roots in the ‘currency wars’ of 2010, force emerging markets to use more of their spare dollars on Treasuries. Also, the US edges over the brink toward a ‘Japanisation’ of its economy with core inflation dropping. The Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing did not have any positive effects, apart from easing the balance sheet woes of American banks. Main Street did not receive much except some benefits from slightly higher stock prices, and with a failure to clear out the system, borrowing returns only slowly and recovery does not gain traction. And then there’s the Eurozone, where the ECB, EU and IMF fail to cure the ills of the peripheral PIIGS, pushing the flock of flustered investors to the safe haven of Uncle Sam. The feel-good factor may have been on the rise in the US in the latter part of 2010, but it vanishes in 2011 and the 30-year Treasury yield drops to 3%.

AUSSIE-STERLING DIVES 25%

The UK returns to the values of the old days; they work harder, they save more, and soon enough a surprisingly strong expansion in 2011 is underway as the austerity-stricken country defies the naysayers. The markets have it in for the UK, giving the wide expectation that the economy slows as Prime Minister Cameron’s cuts work their way through the system. However, the large, narrow cuts will not hinder consumer sentiment and as real savings boost production the economy bounces back in the second half of 2011 to end the year as a growth frontrunner in Europe.
Australia, on the other hand, is struggling with a weakening economy as China steps harder on the brakes to stop inflation from getting out of control. Add to this an Australian property market, which is at best in need of restraint and at worst looks like a bubble ready to burst, and we will see a decline of 25% in AUDGBP.

CRUDE OIL GUSHES BEFORE CORRECTING BY ONE THIRD

Crude oil, now driven by fundamental investor macro expectations, gets carried away, surging to over USD 100 a barrel in early 2011 on the wave of euphoria that the US economy has broken free of the shackles. Unlike 2008, there’s no follow through to drive the spike higher and investors are left holding oil positions they cannot sustain. Crude succumbs to a violent one-third correction lower later in the year.

NATURAL GAS SURGES 50 PERCENT

Natural gas enters 2011 with a supply surplus as the global downturn has resulted in supply exceeding demand for two years – resulting in two years’ of double digit losses. But heading into 2011 the fundamentals for Henry Hub improve dramatically. Increased industrial demand on a US recovery, historical cheapness relative to crude and coal, forward curve flattening and action on proposals to export more US natural gas reserves all combine to make passive investments in gas more profitable. And the icing – an unusually frigid cold snap leads to a rapid depletion of stocks. Henry Hub thus sees a one-in-25 year move up by 50% in 2011.

GOLD POWERS TO USD 1800 AS CURRENCY WARS ESCALATE

The ‘currency wars’ return with a vengeance in 2011, driven by improvement in the US economy rather than a need to help economic recovery. The US trade deficit widens as consumers and governments get their wallets out. As the deficit expands, President Obama’s plan to ‘double exports in five years’ increasingly becomes a pipe dream and incites the ‘man on the street’ to twist the US Congress’s arm to pursue a weaker dollar. Pressure piles on China and as investors flee to metals in search of some stability, gold shoots up to USD 1,800 an ounce.

S&P500 REACHES AN ALL-TIME HIGH

Dr. Bernanke, using his mandate of ‘make sure the stock market keeps going up’, continues to pump liquidity into the system in 2011. Even ‘mom-and-pop’ investors realise the only strategy worth following is to buy the dips. But the tactic actually works for the Fed, even though it’s a house of cards, and the US consumers start to spend as their stock portfolios improve and they forgive their money managers. Corporate America doesn’t buy the euphoria that a healthy share price is a good indicator of health, though, and continues the deleveraging process – margin improvements, a wary approach to spending and managing the balance sheet, refinancing debt at next to zero interest rates, and so on. Next thing you know, it’s a proper recovery and the US benchmark index sees the 2007 peak in the rear-view mirror on its way to 1,600.

RUSSIA’S RTS INDEX REACHES 2500

It’s a perfect storm for Russia’s RTS index in 2011. The next global economic bubble starts to inflate early in the year, sending crude oil above USD 100 a barrel again. The average US investor won’t do anything with his money other than buy the dips on the US stock market, and fans of the Russian stock market realise value in their index at a 1-year forward P/E of 8.6 and price to book ratio of 1.26. The RTS nearly doubles to 2,500 in 2011. The options market says it has a one-in-twelve chance of happening – but the RTS was last up there in mid-2008.

h/t Frode and Arnold

Comments

[SheepleLOVEched...]

yea, # 3 is RON PAUL

[d_senti]

I apologize for hijacking for an off-topic post, but I thought this was important enough to warrant it.

I've heard directly in a verifiable and reliable way (that I won't discuss) that the worst-case scenario regarding the downed drone in Iran is true. China was directly involved and was in possession of our technology on the drone, and was therefore able to jam its signal and directly hijack it. I'm sure many of you, like me, already assumed this to be the case, but I have now had it confirmed.

Sorry I can't elaborate, and given that I'm a random Internet guy I'm certainly not the most reliable source myself in theory, but it is nonetheless true. We have a serious national security breach by which China is able to directly steal out classified technology.

[bank guy in Brussels]

The murders of thousands of civilians in the world by those American drone planes, are war crimes and acts of true 'terrorism'. Such weapons are satanic.

If any nation can via technological means, put those criminal attacking drone planes out of business, God bless them and Godspeed.

[AldousHuxley]

drone planes = aerospace industry = cutting edge USA MANUFACTURING jobs

One of largest US export is aerospace tech where not many 3rd world is able to easily copy.

We were supposed to show it off, then sell some drone orders to balance out US exports, but Iranians got it with Chinese tech given the mint condition (obviously no rocket defense was involved). Chinese figured it out using good old industrial spying and reverse engineering.

Perhaps few underpaid foreign engineers sold the secret to Chinese government agents for some cash, but that's what happens when STEM-retarded society values consumer market web2.0 bs Groupon more then real technological advancement like Drones.

Cold war is ON!.....this time it is US vs. China in drone tech.

[Oh regional Indian]

Yup, no doubt about that one. Back in the day, I was a senior management "person" in a huge Fortune 50 MIC conglomerate. It was the most in-efficient comapny (fiscally) and there was always a strange sense around the MIC parts of the company.

Now I know why they never had to watch their budgets. Uncle Sam was an easy paying customer.

Merchants of death indeed. Bad Karma to boot!

And the price of wheat doubling? That is the one to watch. Doubling might be conservative. Imagine what this screwed up year has done to the planting/harvesting cycles and this winter has not really shown it's "stormy" hand yet.

ori

/this-that-and-the-4th-reich/

[TheFourthStooge-ing]

AldousHuxley remarked:

Perhaps few underpaid foreign engineers sold the secret to Chinese government agents for some cash

The Chinese probably got it through a peer-to-peer file sharing program after finding some idiot defense contractors which were too stupid to realize that they were sharing their entire C drive (and network drives) on Limewire.

[youLilQuantFuker]

Jeebus you are kidding right? I mean it's the Chicoms he's talking about and the Americans are not suppose to be handing out hanukkah gifts to strangers, right?

RIGHT!?

[hint: the is such thing as an Asian Muslim(big funking no no)]

[disabledvet]

eh, we've killed far more with our mind martians. of course we let the women live--part of creating a more "balanced world" for the "chosen ones." i recommend a "hearty distancing from that device" approach to life from here on out. Break out "ye olde butter churner" if you're looking for some excitement.

[Excursionist]

Newsflash:  the drone genie is out of the bottle.  The question now is whether you want China to have the technology as well if it doesn't already.  Your implied belief that the PRC will altruistically disrupt U.S. drone missions for the benefit of human rights actually made me smile.  After all, China and human rights go together like "arm and hammer" or "bacon and eggs."  Right?  The cognitive dissonance is Brussels seems worse than ever.

[clymer]

d_senti.. You are a verifiable tool. Please go troll on the goarmy.com site. There are plenty of soft minds out there for your attempted infiltration.

Besides, you scripted DONKEY, WE GAVE, AND CONTINUE TO GIVE RED CHINA ALL OF OUR TECHNOLOGY VIA THE OUTSOURCING OF OUR ENTIRE ECONOMY IN THE NAME OF FREE-MARKET CORPORATISM, YOU GOD-DAMN FOOL, GO go go go go away pleeeeeeze

thanks.

Kind regards,

Clymer

[d_senti]

Wow, you're kind of a douche. I'm nobody important and I've had this conversation with that nutjob I-dog before about me being some evil infiltrating mole, which seems to be the go-to attack from every nutball on this site (not saying all are nutballs mind you, but those that are always go that route). Go back and read that convo if you like.

I'm repeating info I heard from a reliable source because I thought that the curious readers here would want to know it. I'm not telling anyone to join the army. I've got nothing but respect for soldiers, but I've never been one and never will be, and am a staunch supporter of Ron Paul and getting out of everybody else's business. I fully believe we've been drumming up propaganda to antagonize Iran. If anything, these facts would make war LESS likely, as I doubt the US military wants to screw with China (for now at least).

You don't believe me? Fine, whatever. Like I said, I'm just some random guy posting on an Internet comment section. I know what I heard and thought I'd be kind enough to share. If you're crazy enough to think the only explanation of what happened was collusion between Obama (who I hate), China and Iran to stage an international incident when he could have just as easily HANDED them the info behind closed doors, then you're not really the kind of person who I was trying to inform. I heard classified info that I thought relevant and important for people to know. If you wanna get all pissy about my small attempt at a public service, be my guest.

[el Gallinazo]

Well, it's pretty fucking obvious that the drone got hacked as it appeared on Iranian TV in showroom condition.  Either that or they have some terrific autobody technicians.  Not that I give a shit.  I hope all the fuckers end up on the ground, particularly the ones in Montana supposedly going after cattle rustlers.  I'm for leaving that up to Wyatt Earp and his Buntline Special.  We don't need no stinking drones.

[d_senti]

I agree. What I heard just confirms that it's correct and that China was directly involved.

[economics1996]

We know this shit.  China won a round.  Now go away.

[Non Passaran]

Just bugger off will ya?

[LasVegasDave]

Or, is it possible that the US allowed the drone to be hijacked with hidden tracking devices and hidden computer codes to identify Iranian weaknesses to the CIA?

No way it was an accident.

[AldousHuxley]

At the bottom of the drone, there is a small sticker that reads "Made In China"

[The Heart]

OMG AH!

How did you know?

The Navy Bought Fake Chinese Microchips That Could Have Disarmed U.S. Missiles:
 
http://www.businessinsider.com/navy-chinese-microchips-weapons-could-hav...
 
U.S. military could be shut down by secret 'back door':
 
http://www.wnd.com/?pageId=321477

"Had the flaw not been detected, the chips could have shut down U.S. warships, aircraft, advanced weapons systems and encoded transponders that distinguish friendly aircraft from hostile attackers."

“The revelation is only the latest in a series of incidents that have sent off alarm bells in the Pentagon. China previously was found to have been actively pursuing placing back doors in computer equipment. Several cases have been uncovered in which Internet-capable devices have had Chinese chips in them which also provided a back door into the networks the devices were supposed to protect. The devices were attached not only to industrial and commercial networks but also to networks that were defined as part of the nation's "critical infrastructure."

The Hunt for the Kill Switch:
 
http://spectrum.ieee.org/semiconductors/design/the-hunt-for-the-kill-switch

.:("got yer back bro"):.

[ninja247]

d_senti, 

You are a tool and a troll.

AJ has already exposed your Centcom kind. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUvPoA-x1rQ

@Tyler Durden, kindly remove this Globalist Pawn.

The globalist have been passing around technologies to "enemies" for many hundreds of years.

Go read None Dare Call It Conspiracy for anyone even slightly confused by what d_senti is saying.

http://www.captaincanadacrusades.ca/articles/none-dare-call-it-conspiracy%5B1%5D.pdf 

Keep up the good work Durden and everyone else contributing to ZH.

[d_senti]

My goodness some of you are retarded. I heard a piece of information that is technically classified. With the intention of being helpful, I hop in Zero Hedge and merely repeat the information I heard. Immediately I am lambasted by a dozen paranoid pseudo-nazis for being a secret mole and a pawn of the globalist agenda.

As I've said already on here before, I'm a 27 year old security guard at a North Dakota airport. I've got a wife and young son and I make 9 bucks an hour. I'm poor and just as pissed off at the level of corruption and collusion that takes place among the elites. I'm vehemently anti-Fed and pro Ron Paul and don't want anything from anyone. I qualify for every govt handout there is and take none of them, because I'm morally opposed to them. I can't count how many times I've promoted these beliefs on Zero Hedge and among every one I know.

There is LITERALLY NO REASON anyone in their right mind would think I am some sort of evil mole conspirator, yet this is maybe the fifth time I've been accused of it here. And why? Because you disagree with me. I pass along info I heard from a valid source without commentary and without elaborating on where it came from because I don't want to get anyone in trouble.

About 3/4 of the people downvoting me would suck off Julian Assange if given the chance. They're tired of govt secrecy and corruption, like I am. I do the very little that I can to shed light on it by revealing some small, some would say inconsequential, fact I heard from a good source and out come the schizos.

Do you realize how f*cking ridiculous it is for you to piss and moan about secrecy, to whine about violations of free speech and support Ron Paul, and then publicly demand that someone be banned because they said something you disagree with (and therefore must be an evil secret agent)? Are you not the same people who piss and moan about Denninger for BANNING any dissenters? You are the epitome of cognitive dissonance and a world class douchebag.

I come to Zero Hedge for intelligent discussion and analysis. And over the last few months you fricking psychos have been pulling this shit more an more. Everyone who doesn't tow the party line is ripped apart and called a "tool" or a "globalist pawn." You, yes you and those like you, are killing intelligent discourse by paranoid ad hominem attacks. Guys like Trav or Chumba, etc., may say some out there things but at least they bring something to the table.

Cut the bullshit and actually DISCUSS what people talk about. If you have nothing to add besides screaming SCHILL! at any dissenters, then kindly shut the f*ck up.

[BigDuke6]

Chill buddy
I got yer back.

And I'm a hard cunt

[Socratic Dog]

Not trying to be patronizing, but...you sound like you're too goddam smart to be an airport security guard.  Use your brain, you can do better than that.

[mess nonster]

Do you mean he's underachieving, or do you mean his cover-story is unconvincing?

If our sensitive-info delivering friend is underachieving, he can join the rest of us. I find that credible. If he's merely trying to troll up some sort of fiction, it isn't believable at all.

As for the Iranians getting Chinese help, I think they could quite easily have accomplished the capture of the drone by themselves. If they give anyone a peek at it, they will give it to the Russians, in exchange for S-300's.

I'm not saying the Chinese didn;t help them. Anything is possible. I hate drones so much I often fantasize about ways to bring them down myself. Satanic machines indeed.

Ron Paul eats drones for breakfast. Ron Paul is our only hope.

[d_senti]

Underachiever. Went through life with the whole "you'll do great things" refrain told to me again and again, so I blew it off. I hadn't planned on having a normal family life so it seemed inconsequential to me. But now obviously, with a wife and son, I need to grow up and figure it out.

Then again, you DO seem to be deflecting attention from yourself. Gasp, you're the mole, aren't you?! :)

I don't discount the possibility that the Iranians are capable of pulling it off by themselves. It just doesnt appear to be the case given what I learned. The way I see it, helping Iranians pull this off has nothing but iodized for the Chinese, so it makes sense that they would.

And I see nothing inherently evil with any form of technology, but what they've been doing with these drones is evil, I agree. Especially here in the US. The lack of real consequences for using one is disturbing to say the least.

[CompassionateFascist]

If granpa Ron is our "only hope", then the situation is truely hopeless. PS - don't forget Rand.

[StychoKiller]

There is a tradition that the Persians invented the game of Chess, FWIW.  What everyone should realize is that the only thinking you can really trust is yer own (sometimes, not even yours!).

[d_senti]

Ha, thanks. I got a 33 on my ACT and have a very intelligent family (sounds arrogant saying that, but I'm trying to be honest without bragging). I know I can do better and intend to. I seriously considered going back to school for accounting but after some helpful advice from the ZH community decided against it for now.

I'm losing my job in four weeks because our contract is up and they aren't renewing it (went over budget); I don't really know what to do. I'm going for a few different jobs but nothing certain yet. I'd just do some good, honest grunt labor but I'm disabled and can't do any of that stuff. I'm willing to work my butt off and earn my way, but opportunities for me have been scarce. Any advice is always welcome, and I don't find it patronizing at all.

[UP Forester]

Go to a good, quick Gunsmith school.

They'll be needed posthaste.

[TheFourthStooge-ing]

Gunsmithing is a valuable skill which will continue to be needed and which is not subject to offshore outsourcing.

General repair is another field which will see increasing demand. Over the last 30-40 years, the United States has become a throwaway society, the consequence of which is a diminishing number of people with repair skills.

If you're looking to go to school, an option you might want to consider is tattoo removal. A lot of young people over the last twenty years got tattoos, and my guess is that a significant portion of them will end up regretting it. If you choose this route, make sure you receive training from a place that can provide you with the credentials you'll need to receive any necessary certifications that your state may require.

Best of luck to you and your family.

[BigDuke6]

Difficult q
I think hard work will always be rewarded in the trades where a reputation can b built rapidly due to the idleness of peers.

If you can't sign up with blackwater.... :)

Plumbing is easy to learn and pays over what it should but it's hard to recommend something without sounding dopey.
Food supply of quality produce and healthcare of an aging and demanding population may b in more demand than others,
Good luck.
If you were in Australia it would be easy , come here and drive a dumper truck in the mines, no training, no experience required, month on month off $150,000 a year.
No worries... Maybe

[Non Passaran]

That's very curious because you don't sound intelligent at all.
Advice: stop pestering us with your idiotic off topic crap and go find a job.

[d_senti]

And yet, curiously, you have made no less than three "contributions" to this conversation, while I never intended to do anything more than make a single post with some information. But we all know, of course, that the relevance of an internet comment section is sacrosanct, and these threads never go off on tangents. In what way, specifically, do I appear unintelligent? Please enlighten me.

[FeralSerf]

His writing skills suggest someone that could get a better job than a security guard.  Maybe he has a better job than that?  I don't know -- just wondering.

[tabernac]

We have a shortage of engineers, especially computer science.  I am speaking with first hand knowledge of someone who is having trouble hiring these skills.  Yes, a lot of these jobs have gone offshore, but there is still a huge shortage onshore (maybe because everyone decided to go into finance, law, and real estate after the dot com bubble burst).  My guess is that this shortage will get worse as the economy continues to tank (i.e. more incentive to replace workers with automation).

[Winston Smith 2009]

I don't know how disabled you are, but I'd recommend getting into anything relating to medical care that you can handle.  Pharmacological and medical assistant degrees don't take four years.

Best College Majors

http://graphicsweb.wsj.com/documents/NILF1111/#term=

[Mentaliusanything]

A security Guard at ND airport , married, male one son - and a verified IP adresss. 

Nice going my boy, now I have no argument with what you are saying but be aware of how you say it, where and How (and good luck to the person(s) you heard it from.)

[d_senti]

If they come a-knockin, I'll be on here letting you all know.

[FeralSerf]

If this is classified information, and it could be, it is only a secret from the American people.   The Iranians, Chinese, Russians and just about anyone else would already know about it.

There's a possibility that this poster is not a security guard at a ND airport and also possible he hasn't got a verified IP address.

Qui bono?

[Non Passaran]

You're an annoying topic hijacker.
Now get lost.

[d_senti]

I'm sorry that my attempt to inform you has injured your scrolling finger. I look forward to more of your incredible insights.

[Element]

I'm a 27 year old security guard at a North Dakota airport. I've got a wife and young son and I make 9 bucks an hour. I'm poor and just as pissed off at the level of corruption and collusion that takes place among the elites. I'm vehemently anti-Fed and pro Ron Paul and don't want anything from anyone. I qualify for every govt handout there is and take none of them, because I'm morally opposed to them.

Don't ever give out accurate or correct personal details about yourself.  Always fake info.  If this info is accurate it can isolate who you are and where you supposedly heard this rumor.  You think you gave out nothing much but it generates a lot of connections and indicates who you are not, which leaves a far smaller and localised pool that makes it easy to deduce who you are.

[LongBallsShortBrains]

Did you really expect that less than some here are retarded?

Thanks for the info. Your post speaks for itself.

[WhiteNight123129]

For someone making 9 bucks an hour you are very articulate. Either you are a liar or the USA is wasting even more human capital than I thought. That would be even more scary than having China hijacking drones, which is not improbable.

[Abitdodgie]

I live in North Dakota , I use to live in Los Angeles , what the fuck was I thinking.

[FeralSerf]

You were thinking that it's too hot in the winter and the freeways are too crowded.

[UnderDeGun]

Ninja, remember the crappy iPod obozo gave the Queen. Well, I wouldn't be surprised if he's been raining thumb-drives on or ChinE financiers. Actually, there are so many spies in this country the globalists don't have to share shit. With all due respect, of course. ;-)

[BigDuke6]

It's poor form to have gone after d senti after he only relayed a perfectly obvious fact.
The Iranians downed that drone themselves? LOL

Course the chinks did it, and now they have access to its tech.

USA keeps handing over the tech..... Fucking stoopid.

Just like the chest thumping patriot goons above.

It's gonna take brains and guile to win this great game

[disabledvet]

NAME NAMES! WHAT'S THE SKINNY! FEED US SOME REAL INTEL HERE BUSTER!

[ebworthen]

Our corporations have been falling over themselves to give China whatever they want for several decades.

Chinese agents have been in graduate programs stealing research and classified information, sometimes with help, for decades.

We have completely SOLD OUT to China and we help keep their people oppressed and in virtual slavery because it is "good for business."

[d_senti]

I agree. Just passin it along.

[StychoKiller]

We have completely SOLD OUT to China and we help keep their people oppressed and in virtual slavery because it is "good for business."

But, did we sell out to the good guys or the bad guys?

[TheFourthStooge-ing]

Bad guys here sold out to other bad guys.

[navy62802]

Like I've said before on ZH ... China probably built the fucker. It shouldn't even be a problem for Iran to have the tech in my opinion. The only real threat is that they give this tech to China and Russia ... and since China is where all of our advanced tech comes from, this threat is neutralized before we even begin the argument.

[d_senti]

I understand that argument and agree there is probably some merit to it on some level at least. I think the notion of total US military technical superiority is a myth; Russia and China are much closer to our level of tech than we realize. They just don't go throwing their military weight around like we do at every chance. They're smart enough to bide their time and wait for a good opportunity.

I'm merely repeating what I heard without any analysis in the above post. People can naturally draw their own conclusions. Only thing that pisses me off is when people like the above confidently declare that ANYONE who disagrees with their pov is a mole. If he'd bothered to look at even five other posts from me he'd see that, if I am, I must suck pretty bad at it.

[navy62802]

Yeah, I get it. I just get frustrated when I hear the war drums beating, yet no one in the media even attempts to raise a logical objection based on facts and sound reasoning.

[TheFourthStooge-ing]

navy62802 quite sensibly stated:

I just get frustrated when I hear the war drums beating, yet no one in the media even attempts to raise a logical objection based on facts and sound reasoning.

The news media are owned by corporate conglomerates which suck at the government teat labeled "defense spending". These parent conglomerates all stand to profit from endless fear, suspicion, and war. The media don't raise logical objections because to do so would be to go off script, and anyone doing so will not only be fired, but will be forever blackballed and unemployable.

[el Gallinazo]

Well, it really doesn't matter to the 99%.  We have Google Translate now.  When the Duke comes down from the castle to tell us debt serfs to work harder and longer if we want to keep a few potatoes for ourselves, does it matter whether he speaks New York English, Mandarin, or Russian?

[mt paul]

when you outsource

drone manufactoring 

to china....

this is to be expected 

[seek]

Details of the hack have already appeared in the hacking circles. It was pretty simple (and simply brilliant.)

It consisted of two jamming mechanisms.

1) Jammed primary communications link between drone and US controllers.

This put the drone into a "go back home" mode. It's preprogrammed to fly back to a US controlled airport and automatically land on a long-term loss of communications.

2) (this is the fucking brilliant part) Using a known GPS vulnerability, a second set of jammers transmitted a replacement GPS signal that allowed Iran to skew the GPS-derived location at will (in essenence, transmitting their own localized GPS signal that results in incorrect, but controllable, positioning data.)

The used #2 to make the drone think it was landing at its home base, when in reality it was landing in Iran. This is why the drone was in such good shape, it was executing a controlled landing in what it believed was friendly territory.

Shame is the #2 vulnerability apparently was well known and documented years ago, and not corrected.

[d_senti]

Very interesting and downright clever. Thanks for the info.

[youLilQuantFuker]

Don't believe everything you read on the interwebs.

[dark pools of soros]

but do enjoy all the porn

[UnderDeGun]

Fucking drones. Where's Iceman and Maverick when we need them? Guess Maverick was put out to pasture and Iceman melted. Oh yeah, someone ate the Goose.

[StychoKiller]

Most software has way too many moving parts -- I speak from over 30-years experience in programming!

[thegr8whorebabylon]

that's about as good as gps has ever worked for me. 

[au_bayitch]

#seek - one would think that a break in the PY code stream would cause a go-home based on internal info not external gps info. Where is the vulnerability info?

[chindit13]

If you will go back to the old article about "Obama asking for his drone back", you will see that I was the source of this rumor.  Thus, I apologize for putting you in harm's way and unleashing the (I)-Dogs of Bore upon you for in any way, shape or form interferring with the ZZ (Zerohedge Zeitgeist).

Incidentally, I am the official paid disinformation agent here.  It's like Contributor Status;  you have to ask or be asked by Tyler.  I work for the Okhrana (you only thought they were gone, but once an Illuminati, always an Illuminati), and am paid in "when-issued" Russian Tsarist Bonds, which are already in print (though not in circulation) and carry the mug of the new Tsar Vladmir the First.  The Bonds are backed by Putin's Artic Resource Grab plus gate receipts from the Chelsea Football Club.

[StychoKiller]

Chelsea Football Club, you say -- WHO do I have to "shop" in order to get in on that action? :>D

[jaap]

no..., they mean Gifford (who never had a bullet in her head)

[JPM Hater001]

Thats what I was gonna say.

[SteveNYC]

#4 contradicts completely #9 and #10.

[CompassionateFascist]

#11: the only one that's going to matter, and will determine all else. The Iran War.

[economics1996]

Hillary

[longonSpam]

Last I checked he was already running.. I would assume they've got Mikey in mind and if that happens and that fucker wins the WH I'm booking a one way Russian ticket to the Space Station and I'll wait there for the first Virgin flight to Mars.

[WhiteNight123129]

The problem is again mental obliteration of the uncomfortable thoughts.

In other words we need to define "outrageous".

1. Is Outrageous = shocking and scary ?

2.Is outrageous = improbable?

If we confuse the two, we can not properly assess the likelihood of different scenarii.

[SAT 800]

Russia's RTX index reaches 2500; I think this indicates stock market bias. Normal to them is a stock market rally; I find it more likely that we have Gold rallying to 2650; then 2850-2900; before correcting back to the 2500 level. The smell of the "new money" is going to seep out from under the rug. I hasten to add that I love Saxo Bank and their on-line trading platform is either the best in the world or runner-up; plus superior service and zero errors.

[HellZero]

In this whacky world, most of the above don't seem unreachable before the end of 2011, let alone 2012

[11b40]

Actually, these seem more plausible than some of the ones in the previous Tyler post that were supposed to serious.  Or, at least there was no sarc warning that I saw.

[sitenine]

When "Outrageous" IS "plausible".

What a time to be alive,eh?  ;)

[UP Forester]

May we live in interesting times, eh?

[UnderDeGun]

Speak for yourself. I like my hot baths and indoor toilets. U can keep interesting.

[Gloomy]

From Harvey Organ:

The total registered gold inventory rests tonight at 3.011 million oz or 93.65 tonnes of gold.

The CME notified us that we had another stellar delivery day.  Friday saw 632 delivery notices served for 63200 oz of gold.  The total number of gold notices filed so far this month total 21,172 for 2,117,200 oz
To obtain what is left to be served upon, I take the OI standing for December (981) and subtract out Friday's deliveries (632) which leaves us with 349 or 34900 oz left to be served upon.

Thus the total number of gold oz standing in this delivery month is as follows:  (and a record)_

2,117,200 oz (served)  +  34,900 oz (to be served upon)  =  2,152,100 oz or 66.93 tonnes of gold.
If we add in the November gold standing 1.77 tonnes (November is a non delivery month) we have 68.7 tonnes of gold standing.  This represents 68.70 divided by 93.65 tonnes or 73.3% of all registered or dealer gold  (for sale).

And no gold enters the dealer.  If the data is fabricated why point out huge delivery notices?

[HoofHearted]

Turd has indicated that people are buying large amounts for $1900 or more. If everyone stands for delivery and doesn't just settle for cash, well...some of us would be happy to have our stacks...

I'm at a European finance conference. Heard someone say that gold is a ponzi because it doesn't provide a stream of dividend income. I wanted to point out Zynga, to tell the guy it's even worse...you can't eat gold. But I decided to just say, "All your gold are belong to me" under my breath.

[disabledvet]

with what? turds? people are running out of money--hell even Wall Street is openly stealing now--with the media applauding this "excellent business opportunity" of simply taking Farmer John's money and calling it "desegration." I thought that was a political term? Anywho--gold ain't liquidity and that's what the system needs to survive...FRESH, CLEAN NEW DOLLAR BILLS. Ain't no easy way to recovering this economy--if you stop paying everybody as a gold standard would do then that's the end--it's a full blown Depression. I guarantee ya' these prices are going to start falling as "global mercantilist inc." starts pumping and dumping on the US consumer. Here's my prediction: GE will rise in stock price--i would buy it. AT&T will fall--with a commensurate huge rise in it's yield. I'm unclear if that raises AT&T a sell yet given that the country of Greece can pay out 200 percent interest and still exist.

[StychoKiller]

Just WHAT is stopping The Bernank from issuing more Benjimans??  Is the Evil Empire bound by some rule that limits running up the score?  Inquiring minds are befuddled...

[StychoKiller]

And no gold enters the dealer.  If the data is fabricated why point out huge delivery notices?

And, WHY are the Peons allowed to still buy it?  More to everything than meets the eye or left brain-lobes...

[LookingWithAmazement]

I make the boldest prediction for 2012: it will be a quiet, muddlethrough year. No crisis, meltdown, crash, collapse, Armageddon, war/WWIII. US economy grows, Europe recovers, China no hard landing. Yawn. Merry Christmas and a happy 2012 & 2013. Boring world we live in.

[CrashisOptimistic]

The refinancing totals in Italy and Europe preclude what you have predicted.

[LookingWithAmazement]

Italy is peanuts. ECB will print enough to beat down the rate, so the markets will have themselves deceived and will buy; Italy will pass, two fingers in the nose. Spain too. Bye bye "bondcrisis".

[LowProfile]

Ha hah ahaha hah ha!

...Good one.   Now get back under your bridge.