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The Scariest Chart Ever: Philly Fed Versus Non-Farm Payrolls

Tyler Durden's picture


-700K NFP print coming?

And here is Wall Street's economist brigade again proving they are worth every penny based on their predictive skills: we just had an 8 standard deviation miss to consensus.

h/t David


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Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:30 | 1572840 Elooie
Elooie's picture


Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:33 | 1572877 RemiG2010
RemiG2010's picture

... Japan ... quick, call Richard Koo.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:37 | 1572905 flacon
flacon's picture

Don't forget the good advice from European central planners that "It's ok to lie in order to save the markets" - Let's all just play pretend and then the problems go away. 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:43 | 1572938 redpill
redpill's picture

I've no doubt that the BLS will come through with a nicely massaged number on September 2nd.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:02 | 1573031 TheTmfreak
TheTmfreak's picture

Holy buns! Hold onto your butts.

I'm emailing this out at a firehose pace.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 12:03 | 1573356 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

economists don't understand how to accurately represent small percentages, so don't understand tail risk. taleb pointed it out a long time ago, bitchez. nobody listens; dumb fucks with their phds just roll on and on saying HAW HAW HAW YOU DUM DUMS WITH NO PHDS WANNA CRITICISE US? WE NEED ALIEN INVASION, BITCHEZ. that's why taleb has quit economics and now writes mostly about the attic greeks.

tail risk, bitchez: 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 12:22 | 1573451 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

I ain't scared,,, I gonna get me some Obama money... wooo hoooo

I ain't scared.. Everywhere I go, people are busy.. (like mid 2008 lol)

I ain't scared... BB will just start printing and the Chinese will suck it up.. because we are the U.. S.. A....    free as fuck mother fuckers!!!

I ain't scared.. I still have cable and 2 bags of Doritos in wait!!

I ain't scared... you can't bring me down.. Football Season is starting..

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 12:30 | 1573502 Kryten451
Kryten451's picture


Thu, 08/18/2011 - 13:04 | 1573620 Esso
Esso's picture

Damn, I wish I had me some of them-there Doritos. What mean cable?

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 13:38 | 1573763 T1000
T1000's picture

The ground under their feet
Is beginning to bellow,
And the mountain tops woody
To quake to and fro,
And through the darkness
Dog-bitches are howling;
For the Goddess is coming

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:02 | 1574352 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

dog bitches bitchez

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 12:23 | 1573461 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

No wonder Plosser is shitting his pants lately

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 12:50 | 1573576 eureka
eureka's picture

Divided... Ex United... - U.S. breaks in next nine months.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 12:32 | 1573512 RSloane
RSloane's picture

You're not the only one. This is incredible stuff.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:07 | 1573065 Shocker
Shocker's picture

Thanks RedPill and others. You are correct this graph is freakin insane, and your right the numbers will be massaged.

I know i posted this before, but this is so important that people have more information.

Time to wake up a little people, and Thanks ZH, this site is the best!

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:39 | 1573237 Votewithabullet
Votewithabullet's picture

uhh gee swell, you guys are great ZH, knuckle up ugh'll use yer head sillies.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 12:11 | 1573405 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Massaged even more than the original -30?  All the data reported today was bad, CPI came in hot, 6% annualized on the headline #, existing home sales under 5 million, jobless claims back over 400k with a 4 thousand higher revision to last week up to 399 and I suspect it's final revision to put it over 400 as well.  The only thing that didn't suck was leading indicators which was only up because of rising money supply and equity performance in July which is now a memory.  Consumer confidence is the lowest since the crash in 2008. 

All I need to know about the main street economy is what I see with my own eyes when I go to Macys and out into the mall, if it were not for the elderly power walkers the place would be totally empty. 

Thanks Shocker, that link made a fine add to bookmarks, but as a documentation of the death side of the birth/death model I am thinking we should also have a website that documents fairytale business creation that the BLS can then report as factual new jobs, like 275 employed this week as flying pig groomers.  Or, 1,000 as candy rock mountain miners. 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:48 | 1572945 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Ben Bernank is highly competent and his forecasts of whatever was to come have always been fairly accurate (sarctasticlicios!).

Ben Bernank is highly competent, and will ensure normal functioning of all markets, and he will save the global economy, just like he did in 2007 onward...

...The Bernank would never just print a whole bunch of BernankBux & throw them against all the walls in the world (/SARC/)...

...he'd never do that...or bail out the biggest pieces of shit on Wall Street & the most incompetent banks on the face of the planet (while imposing these costs on the global citizenry) way. He's the best! (/SARC/) and brightest (/SARC/)!!

Ben Bernanke As Weather Forecaster



Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:30 | 1573193 theprofromdover
theprofromdover's picture

The Blessed Ben IS going to print.

He is going to rationalise it that all the money he printed so far went into the banks and was buried; so next time (he'll still give it via the banks) they ..err.. won't need it, and it will reach the entrepreneurs. And bingo, fantastic recovery! Simple.

Inflation? Only good inflation, honest. Dollar? NEW Dollar, much better than the old one.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:58 | 1573334 flacon
flacon's picture

They can put pretty colours on the new dollars too like the Zimbabwe dollar had. I love the blue of the $100,000,000,000,000 note. So preeeeety! 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 13:10 | 1573657 Esso
Esso's picture

Hmmmmm, I call my German Shepherd Preety, but what I really want to know is, will we have a picture of a "Zimbabwe skyscraper" (three stones stacked up) on our new O'boingo bux?

That is so cool.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 16:08 | 1574382 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

i thought they were giant wildebeast chips...

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:47 | 1572956 RemiG2010
RemiG2010's picture

Learn from the best of the best. Repeat after me: It's time to ...

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 12:09 | 1573392 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Pump it up!

or better yet the Bernak's ringtone, The Bubble Song!

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 19:03 | 1575117 Anonymouse
Anonymouse's picture

They just need to rekindle the "animal spirits" in the investment community.

Conjuring animal spirits also is very popular in Haiti and Cuba.


Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:35 | 1572887 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

lol YAHOO.COM is very reassuring about the jobs picture:


The rise in jobless claims, which took them just above the 400,000 threshold, is unlikely to change perceptions that the economy will dodge another downturn. Claims below the 400,000 mark are usually associated with a stable labor market"

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:40 | 1572922 Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

Meanwhile, the O Team goes after S&P. This is getting interesting.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:27 | 1573182 moldygoat
moldygoat's picture

Old Warren was buying with both hands at the Moody's Buffet no doubt. I love the smell of kleptocracy in the morning!

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:45 | 1573263 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

thx to The Ponz!

not the SEC, but "justice" oh, my!  cabinet level control, here?  after yest's newZ that the SEC was destroying the investigatory files on those with polical cover "b/c they didn't result in indictments" this fits!

as ny1 says, tho, this is just a press release concerning the ongoing investigaion, but ms erica holder's peeps omitted saying just when they began this "investigation".

i've been re-reading abt the teapot dome scandal in the early 1920's, the last few days, oil banking, pols, military, commies, bribes,  FBI and so on.  one thing i have learned is that j egah hoovah was appointed during this time to clean up the rats-nest @ FBI and re-tool its image of tuff guy against gangstas, bank robbers and bootleggerz~~~those true threats to freedom. 

quite the rhyme, rilly!  and i wld encourage other zHeads to google it, read the wiki and a coupla histories of what was goin down, downtown, ms brown, w/in the very FIRST decade after the FED was established, and how the pols and their $-feeders used Justice for cover, then, too.  now, of course, we have legalized the bribes, and there is no real problem with the usual suspects.  legally.  if you copy. 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:54 | 1573310 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

Bobby Dole eulogized RN saying the second half of the 20th century belonged to Richard Nixon. 

Wrong dude.  Hoover > Nixon

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 12:11 | 1573403 Nels
Nels's picture

It's interesting to me that when Al Gore arranged to sell what remained of the Teapot Dome to Armand Hammer and Occidental Petroleum, there was no fuss at all, it was just part of 'reinventing government'.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:46 | 1572953 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture



The rise in jobless claims, which took them just above the 400,000 threshold, is unlikely to change perceptions that the economy will dodge another downturn. Claims below the 400,000 mark are usually associated with a stable labor market"



Says who?

About 18 months ago it was "Claims below about 275,000 are usually associatted with a stable job market."

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:01 | 1573018 augie
augie's picture

"When the facts change, I change my opinion. What do you do, sir?"


Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:14 | 1573096 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

It sounds more like when the opinions have changed on the definition of stable...

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:59 | 1573343 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Dead is a fairly stable state.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:01 | 1573027 pods
pods's picture

New normal?

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:48 | 1573289 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture


Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:32 | 1573202 covert
covert's picture

envy has taken over. the longer it takes to bottom out the harder a recovery will be.


Thu, 08/18/2011 - 12:11 | 1573337 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You know, looking closely at the chart, I'm not sure such falls are generally correlated.  Certainly there was a high correlation on the last two big falls, in 2008 and 2010.  But look at the others:

1998: No associated fall

2001: 40% associated fall by year end

2005: No associated fall

2008-9: 100% associated fall

2010: ~140% associated fall

It looks to me that the times when there was no associated fall in NFP the OUTFGAF recovered quickly, or otherwise, they converged over the next several years.  It also looks like they are have become more strongly correlated very recently, though that could just be a fluke at this point.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 15:34 | 1623455 mikeurl
mikeurl's picture

Given the ADP report, along with the ISM yesterday it doesn't look like there will be anything anywhere close to -700K.

My sense is that this report will come in around +90K (+/- 25K).  Still pathetic but not consistent with outright recession.  however this is a shot across the bow because we're one leg down away from a real recession.  That is particularly bad because jobs never rebounded from the last recession.  Pretty much everyone fired in 2008-09 were never hired back.  Plus we're going into the hole every month that we don't create at least 125K jobs JUST to accomodate population growth.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 15:08 | 1574079 Chartsky
Chartsky's picture

Only once has it followed the Philly to abysmal lows . . . and just because it printed +40 in early 2011 I don't recall headlines "+700K jobs imminenet."

A good example of armageddon news being over-hyped.

I thought ZH was more balanced.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:30 | 1572845 Thomas Jefferson
Thomas Jefferson's picture

I juut got a job at McDonalds.  Orientation starts next week.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:34 | 1572881 uno
uno's picture

can you pull some strings and get me in

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:35 | 1572884 wang (not verified)
wang's picture

in anticipation of Zero's servers melting down in the next short while

you can always follow ZH on Twitter for your minute by minute fix

and also follow the Twitdebate between Tyler and Roubini

worth the price of admission


RSS twit feeds



Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:06 | 1573055 augie
augie's picture


all you old farts who think twitter is for kids, just look at who ZH follows. Knowledge is power. 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 12:38 | 1573534 RSloane
RSloane's picture

So very true and ZH has the power.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 12:07 | 1573385 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

That's still going on? LOL

Roubini is gonna screw-up big-time giving ZH this much exposure.

Which isn't to say that Tyler isn't generating interest already, but there are still plenty of people that have yet to discover this catbird seat that exposes the view behind the curtain.

I hope the servers hold!

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:36 | 1572896 RemiG2010
RemiG2010's picture

Gut das job is in Switzerland. You'll be rich!

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:43 | 1572942 Ident 7777 economy
Ident 7777 economy's picture

I juut got a job at McDonalds.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Breakfast for a week at McD's: $22 +tax (2 bkfst Burritos ea. M-S)


At home: $2.70 (1 Dozen eggs $1.50 and 1 loaf of bread $1.20)


'nuf said in today's market.



Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:51 | 1572971 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

I watched a 2 Liter bottle of pop at Walmart go from $1.25 in mid July, to $1.38 in late July (that's 10%, sports fans).

This week that same bottle is now $1.58.  

Pepsi, Coke and Dr. Pepper sort of leap frogged each other along that time period.  They are all syncing up now at $1.58, just to avoid confusing the consumer.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:07 | 1573059 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Did you notice the new 1.5 liter bottles?  Don't be surprised when the 2 liter bottles suddenly disappear.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:35 | 1573211 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Geez, a shot of Macallan 55's gone up by nearly 50 bucks this week at the local sippery.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:27 | 1575023 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Just like the 24 pack, soon to be a thing of the past.  Look for 20 packs to be the new normal at $5. on sale.  The 12 pack is alread at $5. normal price.  For the preppers out there, they raised the price of Tang powder at Sam's Club a buck sometime last month.  Fifty pound bag of rice is still under $20. for the time being.  The shit is about to get real for the sheeple.  SNAP/EBT cards for everyone!!

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:42 | 1573251 TuesdayBen
TuesdayBen's picture

check out the dollar store, bro...  3-liter bottles of soda there cost - get this - one dollah

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 12:01 | 1573352 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I tried one of those a while back.  Blech.  No thanks.  I would rather drink water.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 12:40 | 1573544 rufusbird
rufusbird's picture

Walmarts knock off of cola and diet lemon lime are pretty good and usually under a buck. I have a number of things I keep stocked for the regular weekly overnight visits from my three grandkids. I was there yesterday getting air hose for their fish tank. I noticed larger displays but fewer items. I could not find a fragrance free dish detergent I usually buy. They used to carry three different ones. I will have to buy it and use site to store pick up.

The 33 oz cans of Yuban coffee I bought at Walmart in the early spring for $6.66 each were priced at Walmart yesterday at $8.88, a thirty-three percent increase in six months. I Had bought five cans, and still have one and one yet unopened. I keep about six months worth of groceries (not counting the dairy products) on hand and rotate the stock. Five cans at the current price will cost me $11.10 more than the last purchase.




Thu, 08/18/2011 - 14:35 | 1573963 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Yeah, I use their cola for mixers.  It's pretty good on its own to.  Never tried their lemon.  I can't drink the stuff with sugar of any type in it, or I get a TERRIBLE aftertaste (unless mixed with alcohol).  So if I just want to drink the stuff, I get their Coke Zero knock off.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:10 | 1573080 AGuy
AGuy's picture

Where do you live that you buy a dozen eggs for $2.70 and a loaf of bread for $1.20? Around these parts a loaf of bread is about $4 with tax and a dozen eggs about $6.25



Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:31 | 1573194 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

WTF?  Are those passenger pidgeon eggs or something?  You have to get your ass out of those rich people's organic whole foods stores and head to Aldi's or Save A Lot.  

Just because that flour is hand ground on the thighs of dusky Latinas doesn't make it any better for you. 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:39 | 1573242 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

The prices in North Dakota are still pritty cheap, $1.79 eggs $2.11 bread but as everything else food wise in ND it is high quality crap with extra salt or Glyphosphate.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:50 | 1573288 Ident 7777 economy
Ident 7777 economy's picture

a dozen eggs for $2.70

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

  a dozen eggs for $1.50


Somebody does not READ too well ...




At 6 bucks for a dozen eggs, what does your local McD's charge for a Breakfast Burrito?

It's still on the DOLLAR MENU here ...



Thu, 08/18/2011 - 12:05 | 1573373 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Powdered eggs cost the same pretty much everywhere.

I can confirm that those are accurate Texas prices.

I can also add that the cheapest bread at dollar general is better than Sunbeam, or the store brands at either Walmart or United.  Glad I was in a hurry one day and got it there.

My mother recently found a bread slicing attachment for her Kitchenaid.  If I pick up one of those, we probably won't be buying bread any more.  Homemade tastes better, is cheaper, and once we can make thin slices ourselves EASILY, then it will be more convenient too.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 12:49 | 1573568 rufusbird
rufusbird's picture

Get a sourdough starer going this winter and you can make bread without buying yeast, a big savings. You just have to let the bread batter rise a little longer before you add the last two cups of flour. About two hours, depending on the temp etc. It is easy once you get the hang of it.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:39 | 1573234 TuesdayBen
TuesdayBen's picture

You can get a dozen eggs for a buck at the dollah store

You can get a loaf of bread for a buck there too.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:30 | 1572848 bania
bania's picture

brother can you spare a dime?

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:41 | 1572925 Tijuana Donkey Show
Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

Silver dime?

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:30 | 1572849 lead salad
lead salad's picture

Okay, time for the Deer in the Headlights post!

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:40 | 1572917 Caveman93
Caveman93's picture


Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:45 | 1572948 urbanelf
urbanelf's picture


Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:06 | 1573054 pods
pods's picture

Those girls look so cute with earrings!

Shit, was that out loud?


Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:14 | 1573100 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

be still your heart, pods.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:52 | 1573307 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

thx 4 the link!  thatsa keeper!

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 12:23 | 1573458 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

That's a pack of 401(k) sheople waiting to be sheared.

I feel empathy towards them, but then again, fuk 'em for allowing themselves to be apathetic, pathetic and bending to the will of the widow makers on the Federal Reserve and within the inner sanctum.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:12 | 1573085 alexwest
alexwest's picture

its not Deer in lights, its #ucking Godzilla in the city..



Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:30 | 1572850 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Damn, and I have a windfall of fiatscos coming to me in November.  I wonder if they will buy anything by then?

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:36 | 1572893 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

By November, you should be fine. QE3 will be implemented in September if not before, and it will produce a short-term pop (given the half-life of these efforts, a pop might last anywhere from an hour to a month), but then reality will set in again and the collapse will resume in earnest. So, by November, according to my amateur forecast, fiatscos will be worth more.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:51 | 1572969 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Well let's hope so.  Not just for my sake, but for that of all those who are continuing to accumulate PMs.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 13:46 | 1573795 pods
pods's picture

Well mos, with how interesting things are getting, I would say that stocking up on semi-precious metals would not be a bad thing.  Or semi-precious metal shipping equipment.  


Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:48 | 1575075 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Don't forget lead "dipped" in copper.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:31 | 1572854 shazbotz
shazbotz's picture

the finaaaaallll CountDown.... den den den den, den den den den


Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:32 | 1572861 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

Hold that Gold and Silver tight, were in for another bumpy ride.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:32 | 1572863 Athemos
Athemos's picture

Wonder how much diahrrea they will be able to shovel on us from this crisis. 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:32 | 1572864 HUGE_Gamma
HUGE_Gamma's picture

As per Krugman, "What this economy needs is an invasion by Klingons/ Martians, to really mobilize the industrial complex".. AKA, bomb..bomb..bomb IRAN

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:37 | 1572900 Dagny Taggart
Dagny Taggart's picture

Krugman said faking an alien invasion of earth would have the economy out of this "slump" in 18 months.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:53 | 1572977 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Maybe if the aliens abducted all these Keynsians it would recover.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:37 | 1573223 Frog-And-Toad
Frog-And-Toad's picture


Thu, 08/18/2011 - 12:17 | 1573429 nantucket
nantucket's picture


Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:51 | 1575084 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

That stupid fucker was longing for the days when a good ole World War covered the asshat Keynesian's tracks.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:33 | 1572867 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Depression, the likes of which non of us have seen

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:33 | 1572869 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

start the soup ques, whos for some runny vegetable water? 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:09 | 1573076 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

I know, another you-tubes link...  I promise it's worth it...



Thu, 08/18/2011 - 12:14 | 1573415 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

You never tasted ham water? You dont know what you're missing, thats a fucking luxury, they would have taken your arm off in the 30's for a bowl of ham water.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 12:24 | 1573467 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Hedonic adjustment says Spam water is just as good, or purple drank from a spam can.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 18:56 | 1575094 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Rumor has it, Barry, Timmy and Benny had Black Swan for dinner the other day at the WH. 

Gold for Bread, Zimbabwe (for those couple of ZHedgers that haven't seen it)

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 12:42 | 1573551 SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

even arm water would have done in a pinch...

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:33 | 1572875 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

If you call a swan black, is it a Black Swan anymore?



Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:35 | 1572883 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Is the Invisible Pink Unicorn really pink?

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:40 | 1572921 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Does a telly-prompter think?

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:45 | 1573267 Doyle Hargraves
Doyle Hargraves's picture

Are the people still smoking hopium with kool aid to drink?!

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:34 | 1572878 WineSorbet
WineSorbet's picture

Yeah, well, this time it's different!

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:34 | 1572879 mist929292
mist929292's picture

Is NFP this Friday? 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:35 | 1573213 Lord Blankcheck
Lord Blankcheck's picture

1st friday of every month.Depending on holidays sometimes 2nd friday.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:35 | 1572889 mfoste1
mfoste1's picture

lawwwngg dallah

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:30 | 1573191 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The Dow is below 11k, again, and the DXY is at.....74.

Money is running into gold, not the dollar.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:38 | 1572890 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

Wow I have never computed anything financial with 8 standard deviations. I guess this is what Benarke means by "TAIL RISK" LOL

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:36 | 1572891 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that protecting the status quo hasn't helped.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:45 | 1572947 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

That be a mighty firm limb, I'd say.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:51 | 1572966 falak pema
falak pema's picture

You were never a fan of the great splits. For that you need two firm limbs and a very supply frame. And no pipe please! 

Status quo limbo now looks like its snow melting in summer in permafrost region. Climate change, climate change, coming...

Oops, wrong place.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 12:05 | 1573371 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

hmmmm...yep, f_k_ma.  8 sigma'Z wrong.  again.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 13:34 | 1573757 falak pema
falak pema's picture

mirror mirror on the I the fairest pi-rat of them all?

When do you audition for the new Johnny Depp pirate film? They're looking for a rat to play the role of THE ONE that brought the plague to Europe. 

Want me to send them a personal recommendation?

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 12:44 | 1573554 SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

Pfft.  No need for fantasy armageddons when you got the real thing.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:36 | 1572892 midtowng
midtowng's picture

I wonder if they are EVER going to change the wording from "recession" to "depression"? Perhaps they should just skip over "depression" and go straight back to that 19th Century term "panic".

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:44 | 1572944 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

I like "collapse."

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:57 | 1572999 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Propagandists change the term to keep animal spirits as high as possible.  Panic was replaced with Depression and Depression was replaced with Recession.  Recession will be replaced with something else.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:00 | 1573016 djsmps
djsmps's picture

They used the term "soft patch" again on CNBS today. And Cramer said strong corporate profits mean there will be no double-dip recession.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 12:45 | 1573557 SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

I like O'pression, myself.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:36 | 1572895 FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

Certainly some -100/-200k prints coming. Look back to 2001/2002.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:37 | 1572898 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

-700k print is possible. almost anything is possible in this environment where the largest debtor in history is imploding. obvious it has been to folks who think clearly, and outside the propaganda and cheerleading going on by the so called msm and elite.

the solution is simple: stop the wars, cut the budget, bring home the jobs from china et al, slap a 30% tariff on all usa imports from all 3rd world countries, look after our own people first, prosecute white collar crooks, trade only with the developed world as per david ricardo. use the us navy to maintain the sea lanes and mind our own business.

and of course: close the fed.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:43 | 1572935 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture


Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:46 | 1572950 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

that's why i support him.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:55 | 1572983 Bob
Bob's picture

Without mandatory public funding of political campaigns, ain't never gonna happen.  None of it, never.  D. Ratigan is right.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:02 | 1573036 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

never? that's quite a bold prediction.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:47 | 1573280 Bob
Bob's picture

It doesn't seem that bold to me. Can you articulate an alternative scenario where some of those things happen without full campaign financing reform?

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 12:57 | 1573595 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

sure: 25% u3. dow 1000. dxy 25. snap program 100,000,000 people. 30% inflation. gold 10,0000. mass protests in state capitols and dc. the soviet empire collapsed quickly, especially after the ruble imploded. same might happen here.

i too believe in campaign reform. that said, i believe wholesale change (carnage?) can happen without it, and that the situation in the usa is untenable in the extreme. risk is very high.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:14 | 1573094 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

And term limits.  For ever and ever, Amen.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 12:00 | 1573346 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I am conflicted about term limits.  What if the politician is excellent (for a politician) and deserves to be voted back?  I think another solution is making it more common for Votes of No Confidence.  If politicians were frightened of being embarassed and voted out of office I bet they'd do a much better job.  The same goes for teachers that aren't afraid of being fired. 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 12:15 | 1573422 Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

I am conflicted about term limits.

Try the Ancient Greeks' solution:  selection of representatives by lot.  

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 21:41 | 1575545 sambro
sambro's picture

That's it, vote of no confidence.

The term limits proposal is backwards - it punishes the good politicians and forces everyone to serve the lobyists for their next job.

The people who support term limits are either confused or confusers.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:51 | 1573301 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

the solution is simple:

Yes it is.. Unfortunately only 5% of our nation understands this and is willing to act/talk/acknowledge it.  And so TPTB would rather another war/s take out another 100 million and keep the profits coming.. That is certainly the more likely scenario... IMHO

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:37 | 1572899 RogueFit
RogueFit's picture



Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:38 | 1572903 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

"we just had an 8 standard deviation miss to consensus."

LOL...  Last seen during The Great Neanderthal Layoff of 55,012 BC. 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:54 | 1572984 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture


Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:24 | 1573164 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Been chuckling on that one for 1/2 hour or so.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:26 | 1573170 UGrev
UGrev's picture

^^^Thread winner.

7 Daughters of Eve FTW.. 



Thu, 08/18/2011 - 12:14 | 1573419 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

Yes, and look what happened to them.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:38 | 1572908 uno
uno's picture

new reality show, flash mob looting - show me what you stole

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:38 | 1572910 Debtless
Debtless's picture

A buddy of mine was 20 year Air Force logistics, retired at 40 and just hired by a US Military contracting co in the makes $250,000 for doing the same job for the ahem, private sector, and of course gets the military pension.

I love him, and thrilled for him - but this is yet another reason we're broke and all going down the toilet.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:46 | 1572952 falak pema
falak pema's picture

debtless, friendful, ethically loose but morally lucid. Remember to pull the chain.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:07 | 1573066 aerojet
aerojet's picture

The system is broken, what else can you say?  I know plenty of these double-dippers as well.   They're all nice people who are taking advantage of the system as it exists.  What else can you do?  It will only be fixed by a massive crash because no one will voluntarily do what is right.  And even if *you* decide not to be the double-dipper, there's another guy right down the street with too big of a mortgage on an underwater house who has no choice in the matter. 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:21 | 1573142 AngelsMom
AngelsMom's picture

This is not double dipping; double dipping is when you retire as chief of the city fire department with a full pension and benefits and then get a job as the city comptroller making six figures, where it's possible to work another 20 years and then retire with THAT pension, too.

Retired military who work for contractors are working for a private business concern, which is no different than getting out of the military and going to work for McDonalds. Believe me, not all of them make big bucks. My Dad spent 30 years in the Navy, got $2200/month retirement benefit, and worked another 20+ years for a navy contractor. His salary topped out at like $50K before he fully retired around 1995.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 12:06 | 1573381 karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

Yes it is and 50K was big bucks in 95.


It's a fukin scam and rape job on the taxpayer.


The mil proper should be doing those jobs and getting mil pay.


The whole private deal is rife with corruption and scams.


I can show you a hundred people scamming it for all it's worth.




Cut it 50% and then start looking for more to cut.


Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:21 | 1573147 AngelsMom
AngelsMom's picture

This is not double dipping; double dipping is when you retire as chief of the city fire department with a full pension and benefits and then get a job as the city comptroller making six figures, where it's possible to work another 20 years and then retire with THAT pension, too.

Retired military who work for contractors are working for a private business concern, which is no different than getting out of the military and going to work for McDonalds. Believe me, not all of them make big bucks. My Dad spent 30 years in the Navy, got $2200/month retirement benefit, and worked another 20+ years for a navy contractor. His salary topped out at like $50K before he fully retired around 1995.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 12:31 | 1573507 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

There is a county adminsitrator who retired in the county that I live in, who was making $230k a year, was given a lump sum $680k DRIP payent on the day he retired, and his pension, which includes lifetime health insurance for him and his wife, life insurance for life and other lifetime bennies,& A PENSION = TO 108% OF HIS LAST ANNUAL SALARY (248k, annually), ALL AT THE RIPE OLD AGE OF 52 YEARS OLD.

What is he doing in retirement?

He's now 2nd man down at the road commission, making north of $150k. I do not know if he gets the cash equivalent of his bennies, since he already has great ones from his 'old job.'

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:38 | 1572911 mfoste1
mfoste1's picture

This only furthers probability of RP 12 success....

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 11:41 | 1573248 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Bumper sticker sighting the other day: Galt/Taggart '12

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 12:21 | 1573444's picture

Might we not conjecture that Taggart became a Galt shortly after the escape from New York and so the ticket would actually read Galt/Galt '12?

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 14:05 | 1573862 andybev01
andybev01's picture

I'm sure Taggart would be the type to keep her own name, or at the very most, hyphenate.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:39 | 1572914 Jason T
Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:40 | 1572918 FluffyCone
FluffyCone's picture

"-700K NFP print coming?"

Does this mean 700K new unemployment claims?
Please translate for this layman.

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