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The Scariest Chart Ever: Philly Fed Versus Non-Farm Payrolls
-700K NFP print coming?
And here is Wall Street's economist brigade again proving they are worth every penny based on their predictive skills: we just had an 8 standard deviation miss to consensus.
h/t David
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yikes...
... Japan ... quick, call Richard Koo.
Don't forget the good advice from European central planners that "It's ok to lie in order to save the markets" - Let's all just play pretend and then the problems go away.
I've no doubt that the BLS will come through with a nicely massaged number on September 2nd.
Holy buns! Hold onto your butts.
I'm emailing this out at a firehose pace.
economists don't understand how to accurately represent small percentages, so don't understand tail risk. taleb pointed it out a long time ago, bitchez. nobody listens; dumb fucks with their phds just roll on and on saying HAW HAW HAW YOU DUM DUMS WITH NO PHDS WANNA CRITICISE US? WE NEED ALIEN INVASION, BITCHEZ. that's why taleb has quit economics and now writes mostly about the attic greeks.
tail risk, bitchez:
http://azizonomics.com/2011/08/17/chavez-we-want-our-gold/
I ain't scared,,, I gonna get me some Obama money... wooo hoooo
I ain't scared.. Everywhere I go, people are busy.. (like mid 2008 lol)
I ain't scared... BB will just start printing and the Chinese will suck it up.. because we are the U.. S.. A.... free as fuck mother fuckers!!!
I ain't scared.. I still have cable and 2 bags of Doritos in wait!!
I ain't scared... you can't bring me down.. Football Season is starting..
+1
Damn, I wish I had me some of them-there Doritos. What mean cable?
The ground under their feet
Is beginning to bellow,
And the mountain tops woody
To quake to and fro,
And through the darkness
Dog-bitches are howling;
For the Goddess is coming
dog bitches bitchez
No wonder Plosser is shitting his pants lately
Divided... Ex United... - U.S. breaks in next nine months.
You're not the only one. This is incredible stuff.
Thanks RedPill and others. You are correct this graph is freakin insane, and your right the numbers will be massaged.
I know i posted this before, but this is so important that people have more information.
http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
Time to wake up a little people, and Thanks ZH, this site is the best!
uhh gee swell, you guys are great ZH, knuckle up ugh'll use yer head sillies.
Massaged even more than the original -30? All the data reported today was bad, CPI came in hot, 6% annualized on the headline #, existing home sales under 5 million, jobless claims back over 400k with a 4 thousand higher revision to last week up to 399 and I suspect it's final revision to put it over 400 as well. The only thing that didn't suck was leading indicators which was only up because of rising money supply and equity performance in July which is now a memory. Consumer confidence is the lowest since the crash in 2008.
All I need to know about the main street economy is what I see with my own eyes when I go to Macys and out into the mall, if it were not for the elderly power walkers the place would be totally empty.
Thanks Shocker, that link made a fine add to bookmarks, but as a documentation of the death side of the birth/death model I am thinking we should also have a website that documents fairytale business creation that the BLS can then report as factual new jobs, like 275 employed this week as flying pig groomers. Or, 1,000 as candy rock mountain miners.
Ben Bernank is highly competent and his forecasts of whatever was to come have always been fairly accurate (sarctasticlicios!).
Ben Bernank is highly competent, and will ensure normal functioning of all markets, and he will save the global economy, just like he did in 2007 onward...
...The Bernank would never just print a whole bunch of BernankBux & throw them against all the walls in the world (/SARC/)...
...he'd never do that...or bail out the biggest pieces of shit on Wall Street & the most incompetent banks on the face of the planet (while imposing these costs on the global citizenry)...no way. He's the best! (/SARC/) and brightest (/SARC/)!!
Ben Bernanke As Weather ForecasterSARC-A-LARC-A-SARC!!!!!!!
The Blessed Ben IS going to print.
He is going to rationalise it that all the money he printed so far went into the banks and was buried; so next time (he'll still give it via the banks) they ..err.. won't need it, and it will reach the entrepreneurs. And bingo, fantastic recovery! Simple.
Inflation? Only good inflation, honest. Dollar? NEW Dollar, much better than the old one.
They can put pretty colours on the new dollars too like the Zimbabwe dollar had. I love the blue of the $100,000,000,000,000 note. So preeeeety!
Hmmmmm, I call my German Shepherd Preety, but what I really want to know is, will we have a picture of a "Zimbabwe skyscraper" (three stones stacked up) on our new O'boingo bux?
That is so cool.
i thought they were giant wildebeast chips...
Learn from the best of the best. Repeat after me: It's time to ... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9dSYgd5Elk
Pump it up!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpprOGsLWUo
or better yet the Bernak's ringtone, The Bubble Song!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vdED3rVgIu4
They just need to rekindle the "animal spirits" in the investment community.
Conjuring animal spirits also is very popular in Haiti and Cuba.
Baaaa-ba-luuu! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rAV3bOJaQuY
lol YAHOO.COM is very reassuring about the jobs picture:
"
The rise in jobless claims, which took them just above the 400,000 threshold, is unlikely to change perceptions that the economy will dodge another downturn. Claims below the 400,000 mark are usually associated with a stable labor market"
Meanwhile, the O Team goes after S&P. This is getting interesting.
http://manhattan.ny1.com/content/top_stories/145279/report--feds-launch-probe-into-s-p-mortgage-rates
Old Warren was buying with both hands at the Moody's Buffet no doubt. I love the smell of kleptocracy in the morning!
thx to The Ponz!
not the SEC, but "justice" oh, my! cabinet level control, here? after yest's newZ that the SEC was destroying the investigatory files on those with polical cover "b/c they didn't result in indictments" this fits!
as ny1 says, tho, this is just a press release concerning the ongoing investigaion, but ms erica holder's peeps omitted saying just when they began this "investigation".
i've been re-reading abt the teapot dome scandal in the early 1920's, the last few days, oil banking, pols, military, commies, bribes, FBI and so on. one thing i have learned is that j egah hoovah was appointed during this time to clean up the rats-nest @ FBI and re-tool its image of tuff guy against gangstas, bank robbers and bootleggerz~~~those true threats to freedom.
quite the rhyme, rilly! and i wld encourage other zHeads to google it, read the wiki and a coupla histories of what was goin down, downtown, ms brown, w/in the very FIRST decade after the FED was established, and how the pols and their $-feeders used Justice for cover, then, too. now, of course, we have legalized the bribes, and there is no real problem with the usual suspects. legally. if you copy.
Bobby Dole eulogized RN saying the second half of the 20th century belonged to Richard Nixon.
Wrong dude. Hoover > Nixon
It's interesting to me that when Al Gore arranged to sell what remained of the Teapot Dome to Armand Hammer and Occidental Petroleum, there was no fuss at all, it was just part of 'reinventing government'.
>>
The rise in jobless claims, which took them just above the 400,000 threshold, is unlikely to change perceptions that the economy will dodge another downturn. Claims below the 400,000 mark are usually associated with a stable labor market"
>>
Says who?
About 18 months ago it was "Claims below about 275,000 are usually associatted with a stable job market."
/Sarc
It sounds more like when the opinions have changed on the definition of stable...
Dead is a fairly stable state.
New normal?
re-flation?
envy has taken over. the longer it takes to bottom out the harder a recovery will be.
http://covert3.wordpress.com
You know, looking closely at the chart, I'm not sure such falls are generally correlated. Certainly there was a high correlation on the last two big falls, in 2008 and 2010. But look at the others:
1998: No associated fall
2001: 40% associated fall by year end
2005: No associated fall
2008-9: 100% associated fall
2010: ~140% associated fall
It looks to me that the times when there was no associated fall in NFP the OUTFGAF recovered quickly, or otherwise, they converged over the next several years. It also looks like they are have become more strongly correlated very recently, though that could just be a fluke at this point.
Given the ADP report, along with the ISM yesterday it doesn't look like there will be anything anywhere close to -700K.
My sense is that this report will come in around +90K (+/- 25K). Still pathetic but not consistent with outright recession. however this is a shot across the bow because we're one leg down away from a real recession. That is particularly bad because jobs never rebounded from the last recession. Pretty much everyone fired in 2008-09 were never hired back. Plus we're going into the hole every month that we don't create at least 125K jobs JUST to accomodate population growth.
Only once has it followed the Philly to abysmal lows . . . and just because it printed +40 in early 2011 I don't recall headlines "+700K jobs imminenet."
A good example of armageddon news being over-hyped.
I thought ZH was more balanced.
I juut got a job at McDonalds. Orientation starts next week.
can you pull some strings and get me in
in anticipation of Zero's servers melting down in the next short while
you can always follow ZH on Twitter for your minute by minute fix
and also follow the Twitdebate between Tyler and Roubini
worth the price of admission
RSS twit feeds
zh
https://twitter.com/statuses/user_timeline/18856867.rss
Roubini
https://twitter.com/statuses/user_timeline/19224439.rss
+1
all you old farts who think twitter is for kids, just look at who ZH follows. Knowledge is power.
So very true and ZH has the power.
That's still going on? LOL
Roubini is gonna screw-up big-time giving ZH this much exposure.
Which isn't to say that Tyler isn't generating interest already, but there are still plenty of people that have yet to discover this catbird seat that exposes the view behind the curtain.
I hope the servers hold!
Gut das job is in Switzerland. You'll be rich!
I juut got a job at McDonalds.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Breakfast for a week at McD's: $22 +tax (2 bkfst Burritos ea. M-S)
At home: $2.70 (1 Dozen eggs $1.50 and 1 loaf of bread $1.20)
'nuf said in today's market.
.
I watched a 2 Liter bottle of pop at Walmart go from $1.25 in mid July, to $1.38 in late July (that's 10%, sports fans).
This week that same bottle is now $1.58.
Pepsi, Coke and Dr. Pepper sort of leap frogged each other along that time period. They are all syncing up now at $1.58, just to avoid confusing the consumer.
Did you notice the new 1.5 liter bottles? Don't be surprised when the 2 liter bottles suddenly disappear.
Geez, a shot of Macallan 55's gone up by nearly 50 bucks this week at the local sippery.
Just like the 24 pack, soon to be a thing of the past. Look for 20 packs to be the new normal at $5. on sale. The 12 pack is alread at $5. normal price. For the preppers out there, they raised the price of Tang powder at Sam's Club a buck sometime last month. Fifty pound bag of rice is still under $20. for the time being. The shit is about to get real for the sheeple. SNAP/EBT cards for everyone!!
check out the dollar store, bro... 3-liter bottles of soda there cost - get this - one dollah
I tried one of those a while back. Blech. No thanks. I would rather drink water.
Walmarts knock off of cola and diet lemon lime are pretty good and usually under a buck. I have a number of things I keep stocked for the regular weekly overnight visits from my three grandkids. I was there yesterday getting air hose for their fish tank. I noticed larger displays but fewer items. I could not find a fragrance free dish detergent I usually buy. They used to carry three different ones. I will have to buy it and use site to store pick up.
The 33 oz cans of Yuban coffee I bought at Walmart in the early spring for $6.66 each were priced at Walmart yesterday at $8.88, a thirty-three percent increase in six months. I Had bought five cans, and still have one and one yet unopened. I keep about six months worth of groceries (not counting the dairy products) on hand and rotate the stock. Five cans at the current price will cost me $11.10 more than the last purchase.
Yeah, I use their cola for mixers. It's pretty good on its own to. Never tried their lemon. I can't drink the stuff with sugar of any type in it, or I get a TERRIBLE aftertaste (unless mixed with alcohol). So if I just want to drink the stuff, I get their Coke Zero knock off.
Where do you live that you buy a dozen eggs for $2.70 and a loaf of bread for $1.20? Around these parts a loaf of bread is about $4 with tax and a dozen eggs about $6.25
WTF? Are those passenger pidgeon eggs or something? You have to get your ass out of those rich people's organic whole foods stores and head to Aldi's or Save A Lot.
Just because that flour is hand ground on the thighs of dusky Latinas doesn't make it any better for you.
The prices in North Dakota are still pritty cheap, $1.79 eggs $2.11 bread but as everything else food wise in ND it is high quality crap with extra salt or Glyphosphate.
a dozen eggs for $2.70
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
a dozen eggs for $1.50
Somebody does not READ too well ...
Kroger/US/Texas
At 6 bucks for a dozen eggs, what does your local McD's charge for a Breakfast Burrito?
It's still on the DOLLAR MENU here ...
.
Powdered eggs cost the same pretty much everywhere.
I can confirm that those are accurate Texas prices.
I can also add that the cheapest bread at dollar general is better than Sunbeam, or the store brands at either Walmart or United. Glad I was in a hurry one day and got it there.
My mother recently found a bread slicing attachment for her Kitchenaid. If I pick up one of those, we probably won't be buying bread any more. Homemade tastes better, is cheaper, and once we can make thin slices ourselves EASILY, then it will be more convenient too.
Get a sourdough starer going this winter and you can make bread without buying yeast, a big savings. You just have to let the bread batter rise a little longer before you add the last two cups of flour. About two hours, depending on the temp etc. It is easy once you get the hang of it.
You can get a dozen eggs for a buck at the dollah store
You can get a loaf of bread for a buck there too.
brother can you spare a dime?
Silver dime?
Okay, time for the Deer in the Headlights post!
+1000
Yes!
http://farm1.static.flickr.com/27/100874288_a5ff91b322.jpg
Those girls look so cute with earrings!
Shit, was that out loud?
pods
be still your heart, pods.
thx 4 the link! thatsa keeper!
That's a pack of 401(k) sheople waiting to be sheared.
I feel empathy towards them, but then again, fuk 'em for allowing themselves to be apathetic, pathetic and bending to the will of the widow makers on the Federal Reserve and within the inner sanctum.
its not Deer in lights, its #ucking Godzilla in the city..
alx
Damn, and I have a windfall of fiatscos coming to me in November. I wonder if they will buy anything by then?
By November, you should be fine. QE3 will be implemented in September if not before, and it will produce a short-term pop (given the half-life of these efforts, a pop might last anywhere from an hour to a month), but then reality will set in again and the collapse will resume in earnest. So, by November, according to my amateur forecast, fiatscos will be worth more.
Well let's hope so. Not just for my sake, but for that of all those who are continuing to accumulate PMs.
Well mos, with how interesting things are getting, I would say that stocking up on semi-precious metals would not be a bad thing. Or semi-precious metal shipping equipment.
pods
Don't forget lead "dipped" in copper.
the finaaaaallll CountDown.... den den den den, den den den den
Hold that Gold and Silver tight, were in for another bumpy ride.
http://silverliberationarmy.blogspot.com/
Wonder how much diahrrea they will be able to shovel on us from this crisis.
As per Krugman, "What this economy needs is an invasion by Klingons/ Martians, to really mobilize the industrial complex".. AKA, bomb..bomb..bomb IRAN
Krugman said faking an alien invasion of earth would have the economy out of this "slump" in 18 months. http://dagnytaggart55k.blogspot.com/
Maybe if the aliens abducted all these Keynsians it would recover.
*ZING*
+100
That stupid fucker was longing for the days when a good ole World War covered the asshat Keynesian's tracks.
Depression, the likes of which non of us have seen
start the soup ques, whos for some runny vegetable water?
I know, another you-tubes link... I promise it's worth it...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdmySY9Qiqo
You never tasted ham water? You dont know what you're missing, thats a fucking luxury, they would have taken your arm off in the 30's for a bowl of ham water.
Hedonic adjustment says Spam water is just as good, or purple drank from a spam can.
Rumor has it, Barry, Timmy and Benny had Black Swan for dinner the other day at the WH.
Gold for Bread, Zimbabwe (for those couple of ZHedgers that haven't seen it)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ubJp6rmUYM
even arm water would have done in a pinch...
If you call a swan black, is it a Black Swan anymore?
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/08/12/crop-circle-craziness-and-thoughts/
Is the Invisible Pink Unicorn really pink?
Does a telly-prompter think?
ORI
Are the people still smoking hopium with kool aid to drink?!
Yeah, well, this time it's different!
Is NFP this Friday?
1st friday of every month.Depending on holidays sometimes 2nd friday.
lawwwngg dallah
The Dow is below 11k, again, and the DXY is at.....74.
Money is running into gold, not the dollar.
Wow I have never computed anything financial with 8 standard deviations. I guess this is what Benarke means by "TAIL RISK" LOL
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that protecting the status quo hasn't helped.
That be a mighty firm limb, I'd say.
ORI
You were never a fan of the great splits. For that you need two firm limbs and a very supply frame. And no pipe please!
Status quo limbo now looks like its snow melting in summer in permafrost region. Climate change, climate change, coming...
Oops, wrong place.
hmmmm...yep, f_k_ma. 8 sigma'Z wrong. again.
mirror mirror on the wall...am I the fairest pi-rat of them all?
When do you audition for the new Johnny Depp pirate film? They're looking for a rat to play the role of THE ONE that brought the plague to Europe.
Want me to send them a personal recommendation?
Pfft. No need for fantasy armageddons when you got the real thing.
I wonder if they are EVER going to change the wording from "recession" to "depression"? Perhaps they should just skip over "depression" and go straight back to that 19th Century term "panic".
I like "collapse."
Propagandists change the term to keep animal spirits as high as possible. Panic was replaced with Depression and Depression was replaced with Recession. Recession will be replaced with something else.
They used the term "soft patch" again on CNBS today. And Cramer said strong corporate profits mean there will be no double-dip recession.
I like O'pression, myself.
Certainly some -100/-200k prints coming. Look back to 2001/2002.
-700k print is possible. almost anything is possible in this environment where the largest debtor in history is imploding. obvious it has been to folks who think clearly, and outside the propaganda and cheerleading going on by the so called msm and elite.
the solution is simple: stop the wars, cut the budget, bring home the jobs from china et al, slap a 30% tariff on all usa imports from all 3rd world countries, look after our own people first, prosecute white collar crooks, trade only with the developed world as per david ricardo. use the us navy to maintain the sea lanes and mind our own business.
and of course: close the fed.
Ron?
that's why i support him.
Without mandatory public funding of political campaigns, ain't never gonna happen. None of it, never. D. Ratigan is right.
never? that's quite a bold prediction.
It doesn't seem that bold to me. Can you articulate an alternative scenario where some of those things happen without full campaign financing reform?
sure: 25% u3. dow 1000. dxy 25. snap program 100,000,000 people. 30% inflation. gold 10,0000. mass protests in state capitols and dc. the soviet empire collapsed quickly, especially after the ruble imploded. same might happen here.
i too believe in campaign reform. that said, i believe wholesale change (carnage?) can happen without it, and that the situation in the usa is untenable in the extreme. risk is very high.
And term limits. For ever and ever, Amen.
I am conflicted about term limits. What if the politician is excellent (for a politician) and deserves to be voted back? I think another solution is making it more common for Votes of No Confidence. If politicians were frightened of being embarassed and voted out of office I bet they'd do a much better job. The same goes for teachers that aren't afraid of being fired.
Try the Ancient Greeks' solution: selection of representatives by lot.
That's it, vote of no confidence.
The term limits proposal is backwards - it punishes the good politicians and forces everyone to serve the lobyists for their next job.
The people who support term limits are either confused or confusers.
Yes it is.. Unfortunately only 5% of our nation understands this and is willing to act/talk/acknowledge it. And so TPTB would rather another war/s take out another 100 million and keep the profits coming.. That is certainly the more likely scenario... IMHO
darn!
"we just had an 8 standard deviation miss to consensus."
LOL... Last seen during The Great Neanderthal Layoff of 55,012 BC.
+ LMAO
Been chuckling on that one for 1/2 hour or so.
^^^Thread winner.
7 Daughters of Eve FTW..
Yes, and look what happened to them.
new reality show, flash mob looting - show me what you stole
A buddy of mine was 20 year Air Force logistics, retired at 40 and just hired by a US Military contracting co in the sands...now makes $250,000 for doing the same job for the ahem, private sector, and of course gets the military pension.
I love him, and thrilled for him - but this is yet another reason we're broke and all going down the toilet.
debtless, friendful, ethically loose but morally lucid. Remember to pull the chain.
The system is broken, what else can you say? I know plenty of these double-dippers as well. They're all nice people who are taking advantage of the system as it exists. What else can you do? It will only be fixed by a massive crash because no one will voluntarily do what is right. And even if *you* decide not to be the double-dipper, there's another guy right down the street with too big of a mortgage on an underwater house who has no choice in the matter.
This is not double dipping; double dipping is when you retire as chief of the city fire department with a full pension and benefits and then get a job as the city comptroller making six figures, where it's possible to work another 20 years and then retire with THAT pension, too.
Retired military who work for contractors are working for a private business concern, which is no different than getting out of the military and going to work for McDonalds. Believe me, not all of them make big bucks. My Dad spent 30 years in the Navy, got $2200/month retirement benefit, and worked another 20+ years for a navy contractor. His salary topped out at like $50K before he fully retired around 1995.
Yes it is and 50K was big bucks in 95.
It's a fukin scam and rape job on the taxpayer.
The mil proper should be doing those jobs and getting mil pay.
The whole private deal is rife with corruption and scams.
I can show you a hundred people scamming it for all it's worth.
BOONDOGGLE.
Cut it 50% and then start looking for more to cut.
This is not double dipping; double dipping is when you retire as chief of the city fire department with a full pension and benefits and then get a job as the city comptroller making six figures, where it's possible to work another 20 years and then retire with THAT pension, too.
Retired military who work for contractors are working for a private business concern, which is no different than getting out of the military and going to work for McDonalds. Believe me, not all of them make big bucks. My Dad spent 30 years in the Navy, got $2200/month retirement benefit, and worked another 20+ years for a navy contractor. His salary topped out at like $50K before he fully retired around 1995.
There is a county adminsitrator who retired in the county that I live in, who was making $230k a year, was given a lump sum $680k DRIP payent on the day he retired, and his pension, which includes lifetime health insurance for him and his wife, life insurance for life and other lifetime bennies,& A PENSION = TO 108% OF HIS LAST ANNUAL SALARY (248k, annually), ALL AT THE RIPE OLD AGE OF 52 YEARS OLD.
What is he doing in retirement?
He's now 2nd man down at the road commission, making north of $150k. I do not know if he gets the cash equivalent of his bennies, since he already has great ones from his 'old job.'
This only furthers probability of RP 12 success....
Bumper sticker sighting the other day: Galt/Taggart '12
Might we not conjecture that Taggart became a Galt shortly after the escape from New York and so the ticket would actually read Galt/Galt '12?
I'm sure Taggart would be the type to keep her own name, or at the very most, hyphenate.
good version.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czqQ_2XuR5I
"-700K NFP print coming?"
Does this mean 700K new unemployment claims?
Please translate for this layman.
Thanks.