The Scariest Chart Ever: Philly Fed Versus Non-Farm Payrolls

Tyler Durden's picture

-700K NFP print coming?

And here is Wall Street's economist brigade again proving they are worth every penny based on their predictive skills: we just had an 8 standard deviation miss to consensus.

h/t David

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RemiG2010's picture

... Japan ... quick, call Richard Koo.

flacon's picture

Don't forget the good advice from European central planners that "It's ok to lie in order to save the markets" - Let's all just play pretend and then the problems go away. 

redpill's picture

I've no doubt that the BLS will come through with a nicely massaged number on September 2nd.

TheTmfreak's picture

Holy buns! Hold onto your butts.

I'm emailing this out at a firehose pace.

spiral_eyes's picture

economists don't understand how to accurately represent small percentages, so don't understand tail risk. taleb pointed it out a long time ago, bitchez. nobody listens; dumb fucks with their phds just roll on and on saying HAW HAW HAW YOU DUM DUMS WITH NO PHDS WANNA CRITICISE US? WE NEED ALIEN INVASION, BITCHEZ. that's why taleb has quit economics and now writes mostly about the attic greeks.

tail risk, bitchez: 

Max Hunter's picture

I ain't scared,,, I gonna get me some Obama money... wooo hoooo

I ain't scared.. Everywhere I go, people are busy.. (like mid 2008 lol)

I ain't scared... BB will just start printing and the Chinese will suck it up.. because we are the U.. S.. A....    free as fuck mother fuckers!!!

I ain't scared.. I still have cable and 2 bags of Doritos in wait!!

I ain't scared... you can't bring me down.. Football Season is starting..

Esso's picture

Damn, I wish I had me some of them-there Doritos. What mean cable?

T1000's picture

The ground under their feet
Is beginning to bellow,
And the mountain tops woody
To quake to and fro,
And through the darkness
Dog-bitches are howling;
For the Goddess is coming

Divided States of America's picture

No wonder Plosser is shitting his pants lately

eureka's picture

Divided... Ex United... - U.S. breaks in next nine months.

RSloane's picture

You're not the only one. This is incredible stuff.

Shocker's picture

Thanks RedPill and others. You are correct this graph is freakin insane, and your right the numbers will be massaged.

I know i posted this before, but this is so important that people have more information.

Time to wake up a little people, and Thanks ZH, this site is the best!

Votewithabullet's picture

uhh gee swell, you guys are great ZH, knuckle up ugh'll use yer head sillies.

boiltherich's picture

Massaged even more than the original -30?  All the data reported today was bad, CPI came in hot, 6% annualized on the headline #, existing home sales under 5 million, jobless claims back over 400k with a 4 thousand higher revision to last week up to 399 and I suspect it's final revision to put it over 400 as well.  The only thing that didn't suck was leading indicators which was only up because of rising money supply and equity performance in July which is now a memory.  Consumer confidence is the lowest since the crash in 2008. 

All I need to know about the main street economy is what I see with my own eyes when I go to Macys and out into the mall, if it were not for the elderly power walkers the place would be totally empty. 

Thanks Shocker, that link made a fine add to bookmarks, but as a documentation of the death side of the birth/death model I am thinking we should also have a website that documents fairytale business creation that the BLS can then report as factual new jobs, like 275 employed this week as flying pig groomers.  Or, 1,000 as candy rock mountain miners. 

TruthInSunshine's picture

Ben Bernank is highly competent and his forecasts of whatever was to come have always been fairly accurate (sarctasticlicios!).

Ben Bernank is highly competent, and will ensure normal functioning of all markets, and he will save the global economy, just like he did in 2007 onward...

...The Bernank would never just print a whole bunch of BernankBux & throw them against all the walls in the world (/SARC/)...

...he'd never do that...or bail out the biggest pieces of shit on Wall Street & the most incompetent banks on the face of the planet (while imposing these costs on the global citizenry) way. He's the best! (/SARC/) and brightest (/SARC/)!!

Ben Bernanke As Weather Forecaster



theprofromdover's picture

The Blessed Ben IS going to print.

He is going to rationalise it that all the money he printed so far went into the banks and was buried; so next time (he'll still give it via the banks) they ..err.. won't need it, and it will reach the entrepreneurs. And bingo, fantastic recovery! Simple.

Inflation? Only good inflation, honest. Dollar? NEW Dollar, much better than the old one.

flacon's picture

They can put pretty colours on the new dollars too like the Zimbabwe dollar had. I love the blue of the $100,000,000,000,000 note. So preeeeety! 

Esso's picture

Hmmmmm, I call my German Shepherd Preety, but what I really want to know is, will we have a picture of a "Zimbabwe skyscraper" (three stones stacked up) on our new O'boingo bux?

That is so cool.

Bananamerican's picture

i thought they were giant wildebeast chips...

RemiG2010's picture

Learn from the best of the best. Repeat after me: It's time to ...

Anonymouse's picture

They just need to rekindle the "animal spirits" in the investment community.

Conjuring animal spirits also is very popular in Haiti and Cuba.


Clueless Economist's picture

lol YAHOO.COM is very reassuring about the jobs picture:


The rise in jobless claims, which took them just above the 400,000 threshold, is unlikely to change perceptions that the economy will dodge another downturn. Claims below the 400,000 mark are usually associated with a stable labor market"

moldygoat's picture

Old Warren was buying with both hands at the Moody's Buffet no doubt. I love the smell of kleptocracy in the morning!

slewie the pi-rat's picture

thx to The Ponz!

not the SEC, but "justice" oh, my!  cabinet level control, here?  after yest's newZ that the SEC was destroying the investigatory files on those with polical cover "b/c they didn't result in indictments" this fits!

as ny1 says, tho, this is just a press release concerning the ongoing investigaion, but ms erica holder's peeps omitted saying just when they began this "investigation".

i've been re-reading abt the teapot dome scandal in the early 1920's, the last few days, oil banking, pols, military, commies, bribes,  FBI and so on.  one thing i have learned is that j egah hoovah was appointed during this time to clean up the rats-nest @ FBI and re-tool its image of tuff guy against gangstas, bank robbers and bootleggerz~~~those true threats to freedom. 

quite the rhyme, rilly!  and i wld encourage other zHeads to google it, read the wiki and a coupla histories of what was goin down, downtown, ms brown, w/in the very FIRST decade after the FED was established, and how the pols and their $-feeders used Justice for cover, then, too.  now, of course, we have legalized the bribes, and there is no real problem with the usual suspects.  legally.  if you copy. 

Vic Vinegar's picture

Bobby Dole eulogized RN saying the second half of the 20th century belonged to Richard Nixon. 

Wrong dude.  Hoover > Nixon

Nels's picture

It's interesting to me that when Al Gore arranged to sell what remained of the Teapot Dome to Armand Hammer and Occidental Petroleum, there was no fuss at all, it was just part of 'reinventing government'.

CrashisOptimistic's picture



The rise in jobless claims, which took them just above the 400,000 threshold, is unlikely to change perceptions that the economy will dodge another downturn. Claims below the 400,000 mark are usually associated with a stable labor market"



Says who?

About 18 months ago it was "Claims below about 275,000 are usually associatted with a stable job market."

augie's picture

"When the facts change, I change my opinion. What do you do, sir?"


ejmoosa's picture

It sounds more like when the opinions have changed on the definition of stable...

NotApplicable's picture

Dead is a fairly stable state.

covert's picture

envy has taken over. the longer it takes to bottom out the harder a recovery will be.


tmosley's picture

You know, looking closely at the chart, I'm not sure such falls are generally correlated.  Certainly there was a high correlation on the last two big falls, in 2008 and 2010.  But look at the others:

1998: No associated fall

2001: 40% associated fall by year end

2005: No associated fall

2008-9: 100% associated fall

2010: ~140% associated fall

It looks to me that the times when there was no associated fall in NFP the OUTFGAF recovered quickly, or otherwise, they converged over the next several years.  It also looks like they are have become more strongly correlated very recently, though that could just be a fluke at this point.

mikeurl's picture

Given the ADP report, along with the ISM yesterday it doesn't look like there will be anything anywhere close to -700K.

My sense is that this report will come in around +90K (+/- 25K).  Still pathetic but not consistent with outright recession.  however this is a shot across the bow because we're one leg down away from a real recession.  That is particularly bad because jobs never rebounded from the last recession.  Pretty much everyone fired in 2008-09 were never hired back.  Plus we're going into the hole every month that we don't create at least 125K jobs JUST to accomodate population growth.

Chartsky's picture

Only once has it followed the Philly to abysmal lows . . . and just because it printed +40 in early 2011 I don't recall headlines "+700K jobs imminenet."

A good example of armageddon news being over-hyped.

I thought ZH was more balanced.

Thomas Jefferson's picture

I juut got a job at McDonalds.  Orientation starts next week.

uno's picture

can you pull some strings and get me in

wang's picture

in anticipation of Zero's servers melting down in the next short while

you can always follow ZH on Twitter for your minute by minute fix

and also follow the Twitdebate between Tyler and Roubini

worth the price of admission


RSS twit feeds



augie's picture


all you old farts who think twitter is for kids, just look at who ZH follows. Knowledge is power. 

RSloane's picture

So very true and ZH has the power.

NotApplicable's picture

That's still going on? LOL

Roubini is gonna screw-up big-time giving ZH this much exposure.

Which isn't to say that Tyler isn't generating interest already, but there are still plenty of people that have yet to discover this catbird seat that exposes the view behind the curtain.

I hope the servers hold!

RemiG2010's picture

Gut das job is in Switzerland. You'll be rich!

Ident 7777 economy's picture

I juut got a job at McDonalds.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Breakfast for a week at McD's: $22 +tax (2 bkfst Burritos ea. M-S)


At home: $2.70 (1 Dozen eggs $1.50 and 1 loaf of bread $1.20)


'nuf said in today's market.



CrashisOptimistic's picture

I watched a 2 Liter bottle of pop at Walmart go from $1.25 in mid July, to $1.38 in late July (that's 10%, sports fans).

This week that same bottle is now $1.58.  

Pepsi, Coke and Dr. Pepper sort of leap frogged each other along that time period.  They are all syncing up now at $1.58, just to avoid confusing the consumer.