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The Scariest Chart Ever: Philly Fed Versus Non-Farm Payrolls
-700K NFP print coming?
And here is Wall Street's economist brigade again proving they are worth every penny based on their predictive skills: we just had an 8 standard deviation miss to consensus.
h/t David
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Not necessarily: it means 700K less non-farm jobs.
How you gonna keep 'em down on the farm once they've seen Paree?
nobody expects the filly fed
i wonder how much a set of temporary tables and chairs for the Deflationist's Lounge will cost?
Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition. This time it's different.
If you didn't say it, I was going to...
I say it's time to bring on Ron Higgins, professional Cardinal Richelieu impersonator.
"Curse you Inspector Dim. You are too clever for us naughty people."
"worth every penny based on their predictive skills: we just had an 8 standard deviation miss to consensus"
well you can't blame them... how could they know? hell 8 standard deviations means it happens only once in a trillion years...
/sarc
Scripting for QE3 as Jackson Hole commences? Watch those dissenters like Dick Fisher (CFR member), change their tune quickly. A unified fed will print us to oblivion by 2012. Hopefully, RP can make a good case why the system is broke and his plan is the best of all options being offered at this point.
RP has an interesting take on sovereign debt.
Borrow as much as you can without collateral, then when the lenders all cut you off, come up with an excuse of some sort and tell them to fuck off. Wait 6 months and when the lenders come back to ask you to borrow, simply repeat the process.
I think a lot of college students already understand this protocol very well. System broke? ...or pure genius?
Mr Chavez is not playing right. He's truthy in a overtly malicious manner. The last we'll see of Mr Chavez will be a bone fragment going in for DNA analysis.
Chavez had better get on the phone with Gaddafi and compare notes.
The problem the college students have is dischargeability... and, as a result, the threat of the gun.
Is it 1970 again?
No, because this time it will actually end in fruitful change (whether for the better or worse).
Halloween colors; very appropriate for this particular chart.
Message to ZH: You're gonna need a bigger boat. Every time the market goes into clusterfuck mode (which is often), logging on to ZH or just bringing up the page becomes quite challenging.
It's a tribute to your success (for which I am quite happy)...but really...you're need a bigger boat.
Ain't it grand, Alien-IQ?
So to all you newbies causing the flash crash, donate, or buy something from Banzai.
Donate to Zero Hedge:
http://www.zerohedge.com/donate
We won't get a collapse. We'll just slump harder and deeper. The long, hot summer is far from over.
"We believe that the boat is unsinkable."
Philip Franklin, Vice-President of White Star Line, 8-00 a.m., April 15th, 1912.
Nope. Not 'unsinkable'. But if you get the global economic landscape you'll understand why.
It's all a setup, tomorrow is option expiration day.
An excellent graph from Reuters which shows why the bad Philly Fed numbers today are such a disaster for markets – they generaly presage what the broader US-wide ISM manufacturing index will show:
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01975/philly_1975055c.jpg
Bomb, Bomb, Bomb, Bomb Iran
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iKuMVqht4U
And how fast will we see that report? Tomorrow? Next week? Next month?
First Friday of each month.
+- 65K
-Richard Nixon
clever. i like it.
The governments across the western world, both US and EU, are starting to get under too much pressure, getting all the spotlight, and having no place to hide. Something must be in the making to divert the attentions.
I call Syria.
Tyler, from where do you get the 8 standard deviation number? Is it somewhere on the images or am I missing something? (yes I know, feeling lazy to open Excel or grab calculator)
I did a correlation study on the CORR function between these two variables. It's actually negative at -0.018. Not very strong over the last 15 years.
try again on their moving averages
Yeah, you don't need to run the stats to see that chart clearly shows two correlated variables. The question is only what did you do wrong if you get -.018.
The trannie chart is pretty scary too: at 4336 and below the lows of Aug. 5th, it is pointing to a bottom at round number 1 year support at 4000. The bad news is that's down 8% more.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=djta&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=9
Baltic Dry has been below 1,300 most of the month as well.
-700k? Nothing a little +900k birth/death model adjustment can't fix.
I was thinking the same thing sir. This upcoming August report is going to be some charade alright between the BD and those are tossed into the black hole on "Non-participation". Anything to keep the number stable or only a mild 0.1% uptick.
i wonder how many people must br unemployed and/or on food stamps to at least
read / getting know Ron Paul and bump his chances to get electred..
now its 45+ mln, 60 , 70 , 100 mln?
alx
Well , according to Google Insights the number of Food Stamps exploded in July - August
http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=food%20stamps&geo=US&cmpt=q
and the number of jobs searches is on the rise:
http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=jobs&geo=US&cmpt=q
Particularly incredible is the previous number for food stamps. Time will tell.
THats one way to get to 970.
Everyone put on your bend over pants.
Agree on gold and silver. And miners, so far, have remarkable strength. We shall see.
the mean; the median; the mode; and...
...the Real
Double Dip? Daily chart on $TNX / 3 year not pretty.
Buckle up, another third yet to go.
Leonard the monkey's predictions are looking pretty good.
Your headline implies that the Philly Fed leads the NFP. The chart suggests otherwise. Put that fancy terminal to work and get the correlation coefficient, the r-squared and the lead/lag.
Ross was right. Does everyone hear that Giant Sucking Sound now?
Commence the midday melt up.
The PPT will pick up and the Dow will end up -1%. Mark my words.
Flight to Martha's Vineyard at 3:30p should be the perfect time...
I just Love Obama, Bernanke, the Congress and especially the Federal, State and County Bureaucrazy.
4 more years to finish the job.
God Bless America.
Any guesses what the revised number will be? ;)
I was on a conference call this a.m, saw the market and decided that we need a theme song... here ya go!
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Bernie walks warily down the street,
With the brim pulled way down low
Ain't no sound but the sound of his cash,
Machine guns ready to go
Are you ready, Are you ready for this
Are you hanging on the edge of your seat
Out of the doorway the stocks rip
To the sound of the beat
Another market bites the dust
Another market bites the dust
And another job gone, and another job gone
The Market bites the dust
Hey, It's gonna get you too
The market bites the dust
Hey Bernie, How do you think I'm going to get along,
Without you, the stock markets gone
You took me for everything that I had,
And kicked me out on my own
Bernie, Are you happy, are you satisfied
How long can you stand the heat
Out of the doorway the stocks rip
To the sound of the crash
Another market bites the dust
Another market bites the dust
Another market bites the dust
Another market bites the dust
There are plenty of ways you can hurt a country
And bring it to the ground
You can debt it
You can cheat it
You can treat it bad and leave it
When it's down
But I'm ready, yes I'm ready for you
I'm standing on my own two feet
Out of the doorway the stocks rip
Repeating the sound of the crash
...and the Grammy for best song writer goes to...
LIVING THROUGH A CURRENCY DEVALUATION AND WHAT IS WAITING FOR US
I was managing an American subsidiary of a successful large US Company in Mexico. It had been a financial turnaround for our team. Cash flow had accumulated in our bank in Mexico and corporate didn’t want the money repatriated to the US. Although we had already paid a 35% income tax to the Mexican government, we would have to pay an additional 30% exit tax to repatriate the money. In addition, we would have to pay high fees for the peso/dollar exchange, in order to make the transfer. The company wanted to expand our successful business and so we decided to keep the money in Mexican pesos to be used for further expansion.
One morning, as my wife and I were on a trip driving on the highway, we heard a national message from the President of Mexico, Luis Echevarria, one of the most corrupt presidents in Mexican history. “It is a lie that we are going to devalue the peso,” he said.
Read more
http://lonerangersilver.wordpress.com/2011/08/13/living-through-a-curren...
Again? We are truly living in an age of miracles.
Nobody Hall of Fame
Nobody would have believed,
People would fly planes into skyscapers
Sadaam did not have weapons of destruction
Bush tax cuts would lead to huge deficits
Nobody would have believed they could be off by 8 standard deviations.
Future
Nobody would have believed printing money would lead to hyperinflation
Nobody would have believed austerity measures would lead to riots costing more than the austriety measures.
Nobody would have believed that the stock and commodity markets were being manipulated.
Nobody would have believed the true master of GS was a prehistoric giant squid
Nobody would have believed that Operation Highjump was a failed attempt to stop a group of Nazi's from controlling the world with alien technology
Out of control spending creates deficits, tax cuts do not. If I go bankrupt because I charge lots of crap I don't need on my credit card the problem is not that I don't make enough money from my job.
And of course government doesn't have a job, it produces nothing, it can only take with one hand, skim a bunch off the top and and give to cronies and potential voters with the other hand.
I know that "holy shit" is not exactly a constructive comment but...
Holy shit bitchez!
This is very scary. So an old mentor of mine told me to "not put too much stock in the Philly Fed" so I decided to look at the historical data. When you get to a reading of -11.8 or worse there is an 89% chance of you either being in a recession already or heading into one in six months. If you take into account the readings that happened within 3 months of the end of a recession, the probability goes to 93%! Also, there has never been a false reading around the -30.7 level, the lowest false reading coming in at -21 in June 1995 but then the future activity index was at 15.5, not 1.4 like today.
http://libertarian-neocon.blogspot.com/
That Cosby sweater of a chart is frightening. Starting to believe that Ron Paul was right, the Fed is ending itself.
He's not going to start doing that annoying little dance, is he?
All the bogus bs payroll numbers can now be placed backward into this month's number instead of at the end of the year. Don't be surprised if this number is to the extreme downside. It would give the cover Bernanke is looking for and the go ahead to expand the balance sheet of the Fed. BTW he should be tried for treason and I continue to believe he is an evil SOB.
No worries the Debt Man Walkiing is off for 11 days to see his buds at the vineyard....what could happen. It is all under control, cool in FACT.
So, where are the 'Buy The Fucking Dip' Teenies?
LOL..
My bathysphere won't hold up at that depth.
duh ...
the article simply does not explicitly state how far below 400,000 ....
obviously anything below 270,000 is also below 400,000 ....
this is one of the older tricks which advertisers and propagandists use ...
works every time ....
Looking for a bounce somewhere around 1067, if the 2011/2007 comparison holds. But, don't be surprised if this plunge is bigger - the difference between P[3] and P[1].
http://pebblewriter.blogspot.com/2011/08/stock-markets-doppelganger.html
So, when is the next NFP report due? Sept. 2 in the employment situation report? It would be a real shocker if there was a -700, or worse even, but it would just about make QE3 a dead cert. I mean they are going to QE3 anyway, but a NFP number of even -200k I think would allow them to justify openly juicing Wall Street with a great big gob of money. Inflation be damned. Double digit inflation did not stop them from doing QE2 did it? They just use BLS BS to eliminate all inflation and viola, shower the people you love with love, show them the way that you feel.... meaning give those fat nasty bankers a few more cargo ships filled with pallets of greenbacks. Oh, and pay for by giving the next 6,000 years worth of COLA's for SS and disabled vets and such a zero percent increase.
Hey Tyler, your Chart and ZH were just mentioned in Bloomberg TV.