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The Scariest Chart Ever?
There are many charts out there all of which are to some extent worth of the adjective "scary" although today's Bloomberg chart of the day may just take the prize, if only for a few days until the European hopium daze passes and reality manifests itself in the form of line and bar charts. The chart below is perfectly simple and perfectly self-explanatory...
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Constitutional Convention????? We can't even enforce the fricking constitution we have as the law of the land RIGHT NOW!
Did you see how the Tea Party was immediately subverted? How about how the OWS is starting to show signs of the same disease?
If the U.S. holds a Con Con you can kiss goodbye any chance at true freedom, slim as it is.
Start supporting the Tenth Amendment groups that are popping up and writing to your State representatives to enforce your STATE constitution. Most of them reserve rights to the states and those need to be enforced.
There is no law that is not written by the hand of man. A law is an imperative, an imperative is a concept, and a concept has no existence in time and space outside of the mind that conceives of it. 'Natural Law', that tiresome utterance of Liberalism, revived by a Europe that had convinced itself that Newton had forever unveiled all the mysteries of the cosmos, and shown them to be no more than the workings of a machine, is a contradiction in terms.
As for their reasoning, the history of the United States up to this current day tells us of just how flawed that was. Where did the republic of Washington and Jefferson lead if not to tyranny? We should learn from history? Why don't we learn that no system lasts, how ever well thought-out it may be, and that every one of them eventually leads into every other. There can be no 'freedom' under the artificiality of the modern human condition. There can be no freedom in a sytem. For god's sake, what organism on this planet apart from man has to intellectualise and systematise his existence in order to live? And we wonder why we are in need of psychologists.
We are in truly unique times. This system has allowed the masses of people in the west unprecedented prosperity and quality of life. We are about to join our ancestors in general poverty and low quality of life. It's too bad that this very same system that brought us up will be our austere oppressor.
The purpose of law is to subjugate and freedom is inherently incompatible with subjugation. It's all made quite clear, although, no one seems to care for now. What is a citizen to do except adapt like all citizens before us? It has always been and always will be that the masses are subject to a few sovereign. That distinction will be clearer with time and there is no way to fix the human condition by replacing it with a new system. True freedom is an alien concept known only to those living a hermetic life.
Aren't you a Kantian wackjob. No system lasts? Reality isn't real? Existence is perception?
The REALITY is that some "systems" are better than others because the Republic of Jefferson and Washington was a miracle that changed the world. Theirs was inspired by CICERO not Newton, and the progress of mankind was exponential once the Constitution was implemented. But I'm sure you just think that was coincidence -- that the reason the quality of life for the masses never really advanced for 5,000 years until 1787 was just because those previous generations enjoyed going without electricity and airplanes and computers all those years... yeah, the Constitutional SYSTEM had nothing to do with all that innovation.
But you and other Kantians can't even understand that Man is separate from every other organism because he was given the ability to REASON. You can argue whether that ability was a gift from the Creator or not, but you at least have to come to grips the REALITY that Man is different.
That said, Man, unlike the other organisms, has the capacity to plot murders as well as invent the iPod so a SYSTEM of JUSTICE must be instituted -- otherwise Kantian wackjobs would simply do whatever "felt" right because nothing exists but what they perceive.
For those who believe they actually exist, Natural Law -- as described by Cicero and applied by the Founders -- is the perfect foundation for a system of justice because it operates under the assumption that man's rights were endowed by a Creator -- not some other man. Consequently, these god-given rights cannot be taken BY any other man.
Whether or not you believe in a Creator, Natural Law operates under the premise that man is not meant to be ruled by any other man, that no law can be enacted to deprive man of his INALIENABLE rights.
Someone hasn't actually read Kant. Ho-hum. Might want to start with Kant's a priori vrs a posteriori categories. It'll take a while before you can hit concepts.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Critique_of_Pure_Reason
Spoiler: Kant is not actually against Reason, or denying it. Quite the opposite, in fact.
tldr;
I don't waffle on / bullshit about arcane / esoteric financial products because, quite simply, I don't know enough about them - I merely learn from the people here who do. Give Kant the same respect, I can assure you the level of thought required to fully grasp his three critiques is the same, if not larger.
Oh, and the founding fathers were more than likely aware of continental European philosophy. Might want to check out the correspondence with the French by some of them.
Wikipedia is exactly where a Kantian would go to find "facts"... because if enough people say it's true, it must be!
I'll defer to Ayn Rand for your intellectual bitch slapping (although I'm sure you studied more philosophy than she did): "Kant's philosophy is calculated for one purpose: to destroy man's mind. Everything is subordinated to that end, and in that sense, he's "logical" like a criminal is logical in his undertaking"
Or maybe you'd prefer Ayn here: "The destruction of values -- and specifically of the source of values, reason -- was deliberate on the part of the archvillain in the history of philosophy: Immanuel Kant."
And obviously, the Founders looked to Europe -- where do you think Cicero is from, Rome, Georgia? And you conveniently mention "Continental Europe" since you probably know the Scotish Enlightenment -- a more Individualist movement -- had a profound impact on the Founders who relied on Adam Smith's little-known work called the Wealth of Nations... but I'm sure the fact that it was published in 1776 is of no significance.
I can teach you a thing or two about "arcane" financial products too.
Do go on
The link to the wiki was a deliberate put-down, fyi - since you obviously haven't even attempted to read the original. I won't even bother asking if you have or not. The 'Continental' reference is because... well... Kant is referred to as a 'Continental philosopher'. The Scots & Brits aren't, but pretty sure Locke, Hume, Hobbes & co were also required reading by intellectual gentlemen of the day as well. In fact, Locke read Newton while in exile in Holland, and contacted Huygens to explain the math involved - so the transference of ideas between Britain & the Continent was already a given a hundred years before the American revolution.
You then introduced Ayn Rand into the debate, which is akin to using Sesame Street to teach mathematical topology. I'd bother to argue, but you've already placed a massive self-inflicted head wound into your credibility, and I'm not sure how to top it. If you're so un-self-aware to not realise this fact, then please don't bother continuing.
Hint: Ayn Rand begat Greenspan. That is all her legacy needs to explain her intellectual worth & her impact on Capitalism. Or, if you want to mix some Kant in, I prefer:
"...the properly subversive dimension of her ideological procedure is not to be underestimated: Rand fits into the line of over-conformist authors who undermine the ruling ideological edifice by their very excessive identification with it.
Her over-orthodoxy was directed at capitalism itself, as the title of one of her books Capitalism, the Unknown Ideal tells us; according to her, the truly heretic thing today is to embrace the basic premise of capitalism without its communitarian, collectivist, welfare, etc., sugarcoating. So what Pascal and Racine were to Jansenism, what Kleist was to German nationalist militarism, what Brecht was to Communism, Rand is to American capitalism. It was perhaps her Russian origins and upbringing which enabled her to formulate directly the fantasmatic kernel of American capitalist ideology.
The elementary ideological axis of her work consists in the opposition between the prime movers, "men of mind," and second handers, "mass men." The Kantian opposition between ethical autonomy and heteronomy is here brought to extreme..." Zizek (who is not without problems, of course)
As an enlightened man, please attempt some Kant instead of relying on a third-rate hack to tell you what to think of Kant, which is also a direct violation of her own 'Objectivism'. Hint: she didn't understand Kant very well. Nor, I fear, are you able to hand out 'bitch slappings' on this topic. Finance, quite possibly - philosophy & Reason, when you're stuck at Rand, I'd suggest not.
tldr;
Objectivism is not a serious mode of thought. Sorry darlin, it appeals to 16 year old boys, but not many others - if you really want something to dig your teeth into, at least try some Nietzsche (much shorter than Kant, for one thing).1
Paul? Is that you? If this isn't Paul Krugman then you're the unoriginal hack -- the "16-year old boy" comment is a common Krugman quote about Rand.
But you are right about Rand and Greenspan. Although I have to say Greenspan seems just a little less destructive than Karl Marx who relied on Kantianism. And if you try to suggest the bubble that Greenspan created is comparable to the atrocities spawned by Marxism/Communism then there really is no reasoning with Kantians.
That said, I introduced Ayn to the argument since I prefer economics over philosophy and creating wealth over thinking about it. It's called "division of labor" - Ayn specialized in philosophy, I in finance and econ. I outsourced my argument in the free market of ideas to a champion of real capitalism (e.g. without the Fed).
I also know (if I can know what I can't directly observe) that Ludwig von Mises was a fan of Ayn Rand. So let me apply some logic... you, Marx, and Krugman are aligned, while Ludwig, me, and a bunch of 16-year olds share an affection for capitalism and Ayn Rand.
I'd say the 16-year olds and I will be content with our silly, un-serious mode of thought, which, unlike Krugman, leads us to believe that maybe more debt won't solve a debt problem. I suppose we just prefer silly critical thought over sophisticated intellectual fantasy.
...but I'm not a Kantian, I just get irritated by anyone (of any political / ethical scree) misrepresenting a good thinker as a strawman.
My philosopher of choice is radically more full of shit, hyperbole and general insanity than Kant, so we probably don't want to go there - my advice is the same as to the USA; if you're going to outsource your knowledge, don't outsource it to a country devoid of human decency and full of hypocrisy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyNZy7mWulM
p.s.
+1 for getting the 16 yr old comment & deliberate '3rd party hack' irony, glad you liked it
Your statements echo that of John of Salisbury. I wonder if you've read him and if not then you should. Philosophy is all very trivial but separate from logic which is a good tool to have but not an end in itself. I understand your disdain for Kantians. They are frustrating people to have a conversation with because of their nitpicking of semantics and preference for nihilism; perhaps the only absolute they will agree on. If they can not even agree on an existence then there is no hope for philosophy which has become a complete farce of regurgitated drivel. The conversation always ends at existence and 'I observe something, therefore there is an existence' is unconvincing to a Kantian but for some reason '?There is nothing?, therefore ?there is nothing?' is sound logic (?premise?=?conclusion?). I haven't attended any university myself but philosophy students seem to be of one mind and it must be the structure of the cirriculum that uses Kant to fortify nihilism. Not necessarily that Kant himself is attributed to nihilism but rather he is used to strengthen that so called philosophy. If I'm not mistaken they have been addled.
I had heard of him, but never took the time to study his work -- good stuff! Thanks for the tip (and the support)! It feels like I'm taking crazy pills with these guys.
Viva Mantequilla!
First of all, we need to repeal the 17th Amendment (the other abomination that was spawned in 1913) -- Senators were intended to represent the interests of their states, not the nation. Term limits would also help so that these old shits wouldn't be in office long enough to receive the benefits of their corruption, i.e. the favors returned from lobbyists.
But I guarantee you if the primary abomination of 1913 was destroyed (the Fed) these corrupt assholes couldn't finance their profligate spending -- they couldn't promise special interests any earmarked pork barrel bullshit!
I'm 30 -- if enough of us work to expose these corrupt assholes, and to reveal the true causes of this unconstitutional political nightmare, we'll be able to reclaim the future for individual liberty.... and hopefully send these old bastards to the wolves of the private market in the process (where they'd actually have to be competent to get employed).
Look up Andrew Marshall at the Pentagon -- another lifelong saboteur of the Constitution.
Hear, hear! Ragnar is right. The most certain way to being really fucked is to succumb to despair. We are no more than six months away from a real recovery if we can just unseat the damned parasites. The fire is already building under them and the kettle is coming to boil.
as someone who is clearly old by comparison, may I advise that you find work that no one else: can do, will do. A craft goes well beyond other forms of knowledge in the dark ages.
this kind of work does not exist old man - there are 6 billion of us - a lot of people can do it (regardless of what it is) - some of them can do it better and cheaper.
There will always be a need for engineers and programmers to create machines and mechanics to fix them.
Well, it's all a matter of perspective.
You are young, so you don't have a lifetime of savings being destroyed.
You are young and won't miss the 1960s, or any other time before our social fabric frayed and it became acceptable to dress like a hobo, a criminal, or a whore, and behave like one too.
You are young and can see reality and avoid being exploited. It was a lot more subtle years ago and we didn't have the Internet.
You are young and can acquire the job skills to compete in today's economy. Others are too old to return to school.
More self made men were produced from the Depression generation than any other generation. Contrary to public opinion, this crisis is the anvil and the fire to forge a better American. Hold on, I know it hurts, but it's a good thing.
The best news is you don't own anything to be taken to pay for this debt. In fact, all the money in the world can't pay it. So sit back and enjoy the defaults. Your job is to fight for your future, and remain judgement proof so they can't take your property away at a whim.
On the other hand, a lot of people are wishing they were you and had time left to save, to not buy those cars, or take those vactions, to undo those liberal arts educations in Art History, to take a chance and start that business, or whatever. You sir, are in the driver's seat.
he is in the passenger seat of a prison bus - and u sir are delusional.
No. We're all in the prison bus, and I want out too.
I know it's not all sunshine and lollipops, but it's not all bad either. This has been brewing for a long time and it' time to clear the rubble away. My generation (baby boomers) spit on the Constitution and allowed this to happen while they marginalized and ridiculed those who were able to warn them because they spent their time on something other than football and American Idol. Alot of those Casandra's are going to enjoy seeing the coming crisis hit the baby boomers the hardest, because they have the most to lose and richly deserve it.
That's another way of saying that medicine tastes bad, so don't take your medicine.
The crossing of those two lines means ZIRP to infinity. Infinity is defined as until everything comes crashing down. It truely is a Tower of Babel we have created.
that guy is a tool, only worried about his sales force conning new clients to join, which won't happen with a bearish attitude...
born in a prison
The dreaded 'Debt Death Cross'.
And that chart is really worse than it looks. I agree with the future predicted trajectory of debt, but look how the projected real GDP growth turns up sharply in the future after years of stagnation. Yeah, that's going to happen in an environment of crushing and expanding debt.
Debt is make believe. The only reason we believe it is that we want to, because we think we have no other alternative.
Once it becomes apparent to everyone that the reason the government cant spy on everyone, or even a fraction of everyone, people lose their timidity and they claim their right to free speech, even if it makes more sense to do so anonymously.
For the same reason, when people realize that the value of debt is only as good as its value to a buyer, or an assignee, then people will realize that the lopsided arrangement of debt isn't worth anyone's time, effort or money to try and collect it.
Banks don't have the resources to evict everyone, or even a significant fraction anymore, because they are losing money faster than they can sell the debt to a party who will pay for the foreclosure costs and still expect to make a profit off the auction or any effort to "flip it."
Same with all forms of debt. When the defaulters outnumber the payers, the system will collapse and people will have spoken with direct democracy, not the corrupt forum called the Congress or by casting popularity votes for the most charismatic teleprompter reciter, whether he is a well received, eloquent Mulatto of questionable birth or a stuttering Texan with a questionable military service record/IQ.
And when the system collapses we will find a lot of other things we believed in were questionable as well, like the presence of food in grocery stores, or the scarcity of robbers and bandits.
There are many alternatives, most of them worse than the current situation. Be careful what you wish for.
Once it becomes apparent to everyone that the reason the government cant spy on everyone, or even a fraction of everyone
Don't bet on it. They likely can monitor any and all electronic communications. The key then is to figure out which to focus on. They likely use algos to track key words and other methods to narrow the field. My point isn't to spook free speech but folks need to be realistic about the environment they speak in.
Signal to noise ratio. In the end, it's all just stupid electron tricks.
Officially we are now 100% slaves to the bankers ... lol ... need to celibate this occasion the American way.
need to celibate this occasion the American way
I don't think that this is the American way, but rather it's opposite. Pretty funny, actually, what one missing letter can do to a phrase's meaning.
(2012 S.A.T. question)
Debt is to Jubilee as:
Fraud is to.........................
Bonus
Guillotine
In der Geiselhaft der Banken ... planet taken into hostage by the bankers ... the more things change, the more they stay the same
Ok class. Please draw a chart which describes the path to insolvency.
Bunk.
Only for the unprepared.
The real enslavement will be for those depending on total entitlements to the government and banksters to save their ass.
Freedom is there, but it will cost you now, if you bought gold at $1600 v. $500 per ounce.
Let them eat toilet cakes.
The masses were warned but decided to party on like Wayne and Garth.
http://youtu.be/nTheG--2NE0
Debt slavery is exactly what is going on. It is also why we are in Civil War II, another war over slavery. You can't morally put your kids into indentured servitude and expect them to pay the bill without a fight. This civil war may, or may not get violent, but it is as inevitable as the sky is blue. http://www.futurnamics.com/civilwar.php
debt saturation.
good for nothing!
Wait and see the lines if B o A dumps 50-70 T in derivatives on the Fed, they should be summarily tried as enemies of the states and hung,it they allow it.
Everyone on the planet will be dumping frn's.
Scary to quite scary.
Quick - everyone sell all your gold and silver!
Already did. I loaded up on Apple, LULU, and Google because it's a new paradign. This time is different.
Will by at 1650 and 32 respectively.
Physical only.
Tungsten bars will be digested by sellers.
V-shaped recovery
Victory shaped recovery.
-Paul Krugman
And turn the wrist 180º
that could also be due to US having less people?
does it matter?
Less than what? Less than when? What do you mean by this??
Uh, less than in 5 years? In ten years?
uhhhh.. uhhhhh... It has been established that our population is going down?
Less is used when an item is divisible. For example, "Instead of one cup of flour, use a little less."
Fewer is used when items are in units. For example, "Could that also be due to the US having fewer people?"
/rant
Strange rant considering the chart is per capita... I would have thrown that as a first salvo to OP.
It is not a reference to the chart. AngryGerman said "less people" which makes no sense.
Well, they could've simply lost weight.
Than a gain, you're weigh are gooder.
No, assuming the same capita is used to calculate both figures, debt/capita > GDP/capita implies debt > GDP.
Per capita.....
If the dividend stays constant, a shrinking divisor increases the resulting product of the equation. So..... if you have debt of $10,000 spread among 50 people, the per capita amount would be $200. If the dividend (in this case, debt) remains constant and the divisor (the number of people on the hook) increases to 100, the per capita number falls to $100. So, In the case of our cumulative debt (again, the dividend), an increase in the number of suckers hooked to the state's plow (the divisor) lowers the per capita burden. A decrease would conversely increase the per capita burden.
GDP works the same mathematically, though the increase in divisors (people) without a relative increase in the dividend (total economic output) will decrease the per capita means with which to satisfy the debt obligations..... As long as the two (debt and GDP) remain relatively constant on a per capita basis, the means to pay debt grows at a rate sufficient to satisfy the growth in the debt. Ours is not a problem of demography - it is mathematics. Our debt (the cumulative variety) is growing quickly while our economic output is growing slowly (or more likely waning if you stop counting unproductive shuffling of paper).... Which makes the impact of demographics an interesting and complicating anecdote, but certainly not the basis of the problem.....
The crossing point is called: Greece
crossing the "European Divide"
kinda like crossing the Rubicon.
Nothing ever BAD happened from crossing a river </s>
i liked the chart yesterday showing the EUR/USD about 1500 pips over fair value in compression with the german and froggie bond spreads......
Too bad Europe can't manipulate their bonds like the ed can, then they would be okie-dokie like Bernanke the Ivy league genius.
When inflation, due to idle workers and little to no investment in productivyt enhancing infrastructure, goes up ..and it will.. interest rates will have to rise and that's when its "game over insert coin."
I think the machine will explode, of course, after the arcade is looted.
That is pretty scary.
The chart that shows the fiat dollar has lost 99% of its purchasing power since the inception of the Federal Reserve Bank might still take the cake though.
The exponential chart may appear at first to be quite scary, but the simple solution to resolve the problem is default.
GPD, on the other hand, if we took out the effect of artificial inflation, is beginning to mirror Hubbert's distribution curve to a 'T'. How do we resolve that?
Party on.
Yes, but if the USA and EZ can run up their credit cards and store as much physical gold in the garden as possible before declaring bankruptcy, then going broke doesn't hurt as much, does it?
Outside of a successful manhattan like project for new energy sources with comparable eroi to oil, probably no resolution likely (not that any such symposium or congregation would likely result in any material progress)... and certainly not quickly. We might be able to stair step downward though depending on what we can pull out of our hat for alternative energy sources... so the rate of decline might be a little more foregiving than the curve. Even if some type of population control was implemented, it still wouldn't fix this issue...
Let's extract every drop and lump we can, right now. Make it easier for new companies to extract. Open up all the fields, and every inch of the country to exploration and extraction. That might create a few jobs, and it seems relatively risk free, since you peak oil guys say oil is the absolute requirement for any future growth. We can do that for 15-20 years, during which time we can bury Hyperion mini nuclear plants all over the country. Or we can wallow in fear of peak oil.
http://www.physorg.com/news145561984.html
Peak oil, peak oil...
That's all I hear.
What about Peak Government?
We need to keep our eyes on the ball now.
I don't think wallowing in the fear of peak oil is what any rational person does... Simply put, there are hard constraints on objects in this universe... some of which some persons refuse to acknowledge. Whether or not an alternative exists is not a provable hypothesis. However, what I think is fair to say is that there is no known alternative with the same ratio of energy outputs to inputs. Ultimately, this means increased energy costs.
Further, "peak oilers" don't necessarily believe in the notion that oil is running out... so much as the notion that easily extractable oil is running out. Opening up the entire world to exploration and drilling does not change this fact. And, most certainly, does not change the fact that deep drilling is not without significant risks (see deep water horizon).
The other issue is what mechanism allows energy from a nuclear plant to be transmitted to and stored by and in a personal vehicle, aircraft, boat, tractor, etc.? What inefficiencies will be created by utilizing batteries for a process formerly performed by combustion engines? How much energy will be lost through the transfer process? What aspects of our lives will we have to give up to accommodate this new energy grid? What transfer infrastructure will we have to create to do so?
The biggest issue, of course, is that we're simply talking about energy replacement... not surplus... nor surpassing the available energy under a full blown oil regime. If cheap, abundant energy in easily convertible and transportable form is the key to "growth," then what of an alternative energy world whereby it is not as cheap and not so easily converted and/or transported? What of an alternative energy world that requires more and more input in order to generate output? What you're advocating isn't growth, it's stasis... at best.
Whether or not a similar alternative to oil exists that is recognizable and usable by humans is anyone's guess... I have no idea... it's simply not a falsifiable hypothesis... but, what is certain is that the return on known alternative energy sources per energy unit of input is simply not as good as our existing oil infrastructure, that is in decline. All B9K9 is saying is that until some discovery occurs that changes this fact, our growth rate appears to be following the oil production curve... I concur. (which also explains the impetus to politically/militarily control oil infrastructure, but I digress).
Thanks for the thoughtful response. If and when oil becomes prohibitively expensive for personal transportation, it will be used more for critical transportation and we'll have to find other means of conveyance. But that's a long process that will be ameliorated in large part by communication replacing travel. How much oil that we burn now is used for basically unnecessary purposes? We know that price increases already lead to curtailed use, and that's in the present system which assumes oil flows like water. As the system adjusts to higher oil prices, which it will likely have to do, we may be able to reduce our usage considerably.
Technology is an unknown, but we know that it has repeatedly overcome apparent resource limitations in the past. This is the latest, scariest one. All non-biotic resources are terminally scarce, and biotic ones are as well, on a long enough horizon. That means you have to mold what you have to fit your needs when the perfect is gone. Around 1900 we supposedly passed peak inventiveness (US patent office official: 'Everything that can be invented has been invented') then we had peak capitalism, then peak food, then peak environmental danger.
RE the return on power: The natural development has been from large, energy inneficient systems (windmills, teams of horses) toward smaller systems. Nuclear power is the natural evolution of that trend. Fukushima is scary as hell, and the lack of coordinated international effort - or even attempt at the same - is shocking. But there's every indication that cronyism played as big a part in the disaster as anything else. We've had nuclear subs patrolling the seas for a generation. Passive, dispersed systems like solar are fine, it's free energy once you've recouped your costs. But for mass production of energy, nuclear is still the answer, but on a smaller, more containable scale. Have a look at the link I posted above.
Finally, let's reconsider growth. The present monetary system requires growth to avoid collapse. A metal based monetary system precludes the creation and much of the misallocation of money. How much of the existing infrastructure/uses for oil would not exist in a funcional monetary system? And would zero economic growth be so bad in such a system? It's naturally deflationary, and biased toward the most productive use of resources. Measured with current metrics, a slowly growing system with sound money might appear in recession. And all of the peak oil scenarios envision something like the current regulatory and tax environment, or worse. The production of alternative energy is being stifled along with every other productive endeavor. In any case, if the monetary system does not need growth to survive, a lack of growth is much less devastating. Presently we're measuring it based on a combination of what we're producing and what monies we're creating from thin air and plowing into the system. That's not growth, it's delusion. But assume we have a sound money system and a lack of growth. What does that mean in reality? It doesn't mean mass starvation or death from exposure, because the system is not built on debt. It means the world keeps turning, but there's a little less stuff being made to go around, until we can figure out a cheaper way to make and distribute more.
Right, but your criticism of peak oilers was that we predicate prospective growth upon the necessity of oil... (or something with a similar eroi). Your entire last paragraph seems like a capitulation of your prior thesis. It seems we are in agreement regarding growth prospects post peak.
I don't argue that living is impossible without oil... it most certainly is... it's just that the standard of living will likely decrease substantially and energy usage will be constrained. We have a hard time tolerating structural unemployment as it is, with "cheap" oil... I strongly suspect we will cross the rubicon in the not too distant future regarding availability/price and the world that follows will not be so orderly or nice as the present. Again, the case for alternative fuel is, at best, to try and replace some of the energy demand presently filled by oil... No where in the equation does alternative energy usurp and surpass oil in so far as return on input. The efficiency of alternatives has a directly negative impact on cost (the higher the efficiency, the less the impact on cost).
I strongly suspect that humanity will "trudge" on... I'm not calling for an end to civilization... but, what I am saying is that it WILL be the dawn of a new era... most likely characterized by a decrease in the standard of living for the developed world, especially america... and will most certainly result in a default on the lion's share of debt (why stop half way, right?). Which will likely have grave political and military consequences throughout the world, if not by the act of default in and of itself, then by the socio economic situation thereafter... supply chain disruption, protectionism, nationalism, etc.
That take on it seems right. We'll slog on, and with any luck we'll find some help along the way.
Better than expected.
What's the number for Japan.
This is bad but some context is necessary.
Japan actually makes stuff people want tho.
And an intact culture, and a relatively low-leveraged banking system (since it already blew up). Could be worse. oh wait, that whole Fukushima thing might hurt a bit.
Or not. If you take the Tepco hopium, you might just get super-powers, like Wolverine or something.
Thank you Mr. Durden for the Chart & the ongoing, outstanding Greek Riot(s) Coverage.
Cheers,
Beef
Laugh..laugh..laugh...this will be good for 100 points up...and then the EU rumor for another 100.....nothing matters anymore...just data...no one has to pay it back...the Chinese just sit back and wait for the opportune time to take over....and it will be easy....the rest of the world with good money will follow....and leave us debtors to die....
Winning!!
Losing Yet Winning!!
Winning!!!
Take out the inflation adjustment and it doesn't look half as scary.
close your eyes and it doesn't look so scary...
All things nominal? Come on
Bullish.
But the McRib is Back!
The McRib is the solution to all of our economic woes
especially so, now that The Golden Arches Supper Club accepts WIC and EBT/LINK cards.
END the FED
nah, keep it goin' </s>
forget tryin' to rationalize, cover your eyes
Global GDP 4% since 2002. Global Debt: 12% growth since 2002. But, heh, no one cares about such simple things as GDP is bullshit without looking at the balance sheet.
The market is a structural decline. The problem is you get a lot of yo-yoing because of ALL THE FUCKING IDIOTS.
Deficits don't matter...
Remember the saying "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics?" I think it should be revised to "lies, damned lies, statistics, and government statistics"
We have surely passed this death cross already, led by the greatest debtor example in the history of the world, US Government. This is just advance notice that they are going to do something bad for US economy, kind of like when Timmy shouted we are not going to devalue the FRN$.
The blue line shows positive "real growth" into the future. That is an illusion that will not happen, not with declining net energy.
Gold bugs better start praying for:
1) Increased Fed printing
2) More QE programs
3) Another "Cash For Clunkers" and other assorted stimulus programs
4) Eurozone bailout of all banks
5) Huge bull market in the S & P 500
Otherwise, GLD and GDX are going to crash back to the 2008 lows.
GDX/GLD ratio is already back to the 2011 lows again, as the "Ratio Traders" are now knee deep in booze and hookers.
I think you miss the point of investing in gold.
Gold is a solid investment itself, with real value and no counter party risk, thus why the Central Banks own tens of thousands of tonnes of gold.
Gold doesn't need fiscal and monetary policy, fiscal and monetary policy need gold.
Robo is simply a harassment troll. Gee I wonder why he's not spouting off about APPL like he was a few days ago?
STOP FEEDING THE TROLL!
Robo may want to look at this chart, compliments of Jesse's Crossroads Cafe:
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/10/this-is-gold-bull-market.html
Robo isn't a troll, it's an algorithm.
'debt printing' is where the 'money printing' actually exist which is why the real root of the debt problem is FRB.
Robo Troll
"Robo Tyler" Fixed it.
herp a derp derp
Why are people with gold any different than anyone else? What to hold in the midst of a deflationary depression? Because absent gov't intervention, that is what we have. Even with it, that's what we get eventually.
See why I think Robo is a Perl script at least half of the time?
What evidence is there that the writer of this comment looked at the article or the chart?
Every comment before Robo's feels like it was written by a human being who had either glanced at the article, or was responding to an earlier comment.
Robo's does not.
Right, simply a bot. Never a comment with the least to do about the article itself, ever.
Robo the bot? Could be. How did he get graphics privileges?
Here are some of the gems that "earned" him pic privs:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/confessions-former-bear
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/wall-street-animal-spirits-stampede-across-river
His last article I read was a couple months ago where he was suggesting we were entering a bear market in equities.. that's about it. Maybe there was a picture or 2 of women.. I can't remember at all
If I were doing this, I would have a human running several bots. Most of the time, the bots would generate text in their own various styles & with their typical content. ( Robo always talks formulaically about stocks, MDB always uses ALL CAPS for EMPHASIS, etc... )
The bots would use keyword or phrase recognition tech to decide where to post -- sometimes causing obvious relevancy failures --
But then I would have the human bot-manager look at the results, and do damage control where necessary. i.e. post little replies to replies, in the appropriate style, to prove that the bot is 'real'.
Maybe I should change my handle to BladeRunner.
Except now you have someone who actually knows what is happening. Better to let it live, warts and all, and for very few, if any, people needing to be in the know.
With virtual machines and some of the HB Gary tools you can run multiple bots from one machine/router.
I am still not convinced Robo passes a turing test.
Mick: You are walking along in a desert. You see a turtle. You flip it over on its back. Why did you do that, Robo?
Robo: Gold and silver are getting clobbered this morning.
Mick: Tell me about your mother.
Robo: My investments in AAPL and IBM are doing exceptionally well.
Mick: ( looks at Dr. Tyrell ) Um -- can we just stop?
It's almost like Eliza vs Zippy the Pinhead.
+1 for Blade Runner reference.
Los Angeles October 2019; might not be that far off...
MDB's writing is way to relevent to be a bot. Besides, reducing the arguments to the absurd provides a valuable public service, as they attract and illuminate all of the pests, kind of like a bug zapper.
SD1,
Robo is the female personification of Tyler's Durden's alter ego, the character played by Edward Norton in Fight Club (he or Helena Bonham Carter).
Tyler tells you like it is, Robo tells you what society has programmed you to want to hear. I don't think Robo is a bot because Robo sometimes responds intelligently to posts. When things get boring for the moderator, he takes out Robo to spice things up. I also think Robo belongs to only one of the Tylers.
So Marla has been posting as Robo this whole time? I wish she would stop and get back to doing Radio Zero.
Gold bugs don't have to pray for anything!
I'll just sit and grin... the money will roll right in!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y2Ump_rjz5I
Paper bugs better start looking for:
1) A good all weather tent.
2) Survival gear.
3) A place to sqaut.
4) A food and water source.
Otherwise, you're going to be fucked all 50 ways before this decade is over. At least you will have some Benjamins to wipe your ass with.
What, again?
robottrader: the braying donkey at zero hedge.
how are your retail positions working out for you lately?
You're right Robo, I bet Ben Bernanke and all the central bankers buying gold lay awake every night praying for one of those things to happen so they don't take a loss on their gold.....HAHAHAHAHAHA!
No matter what argument someone comes up with against gold, the only people in the world who know the facts, and who have to power to affect the price, are buying it. Case closed.
Robo better hope that fiat doesn't fail, otherwise the only thing left for him to hold will be his dick...
Robot Trader,
Otherwise, GLD and GDX are going to crash back to the 2008 lows.
Since both of thee are paper pushers and liars, who cares.
I look for a major correction, and I will buy all I have frns to buy with.
Big difference in paper price and physical.
And, all the things you suggested are coming ,bank it.
You can subtract me out of the population number. I have no intention of paying my "fair" share of the debt. I was never asked what that money should be spent on and I received no benefit from it.
+1 for Civil disobedience.
John Galt Lives!
... somewhere in a remote mountain valley, preparing his hundred page sermon.
Well- it is Halloween........
Please correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't GDP per capita a yearly total, while the debt per capita is an absolute total? If so, then this comparison is irrelevant, it's like comparing "apples to unicorns".
Quite to the point, finally !!!!!!
The IMF crying wolf ? At least someone at zerohedge is reflective enough.
Moreover, which debt is that ? Is it public debt, corporate debt or hosehold debt? By the way total
His point is correct, I believe, but to your point... I'm pretty sure that is just public debt. Private debt and corporate debt actually dwarfs public debt. The aggregate of this debt is what we call money... and since money is, in essence, debt... the aggregate must be in a state of perpetual growth or you face cascading defaults, ie. a deflationary depression. The game has always been make believe, but the recovery is make believe squared. The end is near.
"I'm pretty sure that is just public debt." , you write.
My point that it should have been specified which debt the chart refers to.
As for the aggregate (public + corporate + household) that is a little less than 300 % of GDP or around.
That 300 % of GDP is really scary!!!
Public debt? I think you mean odious (or odorous, at a minimum).
Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future - Niels Bohr
Scariest chart ever since last week's scariest chart ever to be replaced by next week's scariest chart ever?
Surely thats possible in a changing environment. No?
I agree it''s possible, but please don't call him Shirley.
"Every day . . . is scarier than the one before it. So every day that you see me, that's on the scariest day of my life."
"What about today? Is today the scariest day of your life?"
"Yeah . . . yeah."
"Wow, that's messed up."
Yes there are so many "off balance" sheet items ...that it is a joke....I bet when all is said and done..and the forensics are done..that we will find the fed is sending cash all over the world....to everyone...bankers..governments...to pay off the sheeple...we talk of a 1.3 trillion dollar deficit....I bet its more like 3-4 trillion....
I think the term we're looking for is "owned".
But when you can print to infinity, debt no longer matters!! sarc
to infinit aand beyound.....
Cheneyism, "deficits don't matter" (buy this or take that landing on your roof)!
Deficits really don't matter. What matters is debt to GDP and government spending to GDP. If the Federal governments yearly deficit was $1.5 billion rather than $1.5 trillion, no one would care if that deficitit existed in perpetuity, it wouldn't affect the economy and the Fed could paper it over.