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Seasonal And Birth Death Adjustments Add 429,000 Statistical "Jobs"

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Happy by the headline establishment survey print of 133,245 which says that the US "added" 163,000 jobs in July from 133,082 last month? Consider this: the number was based on a non seasonally adjusted July number of 132,868. This was a 1.248 million drop from the June print. So how did the smoothing work out to make a real plunge into an "adjusted" rise? Simple: the BLS "added" 377K jobs for seasonal purposes. This was the largest seasonal addition in the past decade for a July NFP print in the past decade, possibly ever, as the first chart below shows. But wait, there's more: the Birth Death adjustment, which adds to the NSA Print to get to the final number, was +52k. How does this compare to July 2011? It is about 1000% higher: the last B/D adjustment was a tiny +5K! In other words, of the 163,000 jobs "added", 429,000 was based on purely statistical fudging. Doesn't matter - the flashing red headline is good enough for the algos.

Seasonal Adjustment:

Birth Death:

 


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Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:52 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Nice try.....I'm not clicking that link.....and I'm not pulling your finger either.

 

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:03 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I'm not trusting anything until I hear from Barry 'I am the first, last and only word on translating the NFP' Ritholtz (aka Barry 'The BLS Is A Shining Beacon of Statistical Accuracy' Ritholtz), damnit.

 

If green futures dissolve to red intraday and @ eod, then word has gotten out that QExwhatever is ON, bitchez.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:05 | Link to Comment Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Perception IS reality!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:09 | Link to Comment Shocker
Shocker's picture

The numbers are worked out in so many different ways. At any rate we all know, things are still not great.

How do you actually solve a problem, with no real solutions.

Like posted earlier, a must to keep up on

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:23 | Link to Comment Rick64
Rick64's picture

2+2= 10  Its fractional reserve employment.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:37 | Link to Comment Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

1+1 = 3 (without a condom)

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:53 | Link to Comment D-Man
D-Man's picture

Somebody buy the government a condom!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:59 | Link to Comment Rick64
Rick64's picture

Could be 7 if you had Quintuplets. 

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 15:06 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

It's good to see Zero Hedge getting recognition for doing the heavy lifting in separating the wheat from the chaff in terms of NFP datum and statistical torturing that the 'mainstream financial media' apparently can't be bothered with:

 

Barron's cites Zero Hedge critique of the July NFP report:

Barron's: Headline or Headfake?

 

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:02 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Let us all go long KCG and AAPL.

Two of America's best companies. 

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:13 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Best print possible

Overall unemployment goes up to 8.3% (QE3 possible)

Large beat on NFP hires (real recovery possible)

This will lift stocks up, while gold/silver just stay flat.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:16 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

The good news is we can ignore those other things like earnings.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:18 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

Sad that you think the stock market and government reports actually represent the economy.

When you play Monopoly, do you think you are actually buying real property and building real hotels?

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:53 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

FUCK YEA!

Time to be bying sum stox!!!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:54 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I should remind you it's just the adjustments.....the revisions are out later.

 

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:09 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Huh?  Ah, forget that stuff.  This sucka is going to the MOON!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:23 | Link to Comment Coldsun
Coldsun's picture

Hell Yeah! Got me some Obama money coming in that wez could use!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fOZ-Etb0k0Q&noredirect=1

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:15 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

this is nothing but a completely manipulated, and purpose built, campaign tool for Oblama to hose Romney.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 11:18 | Link to Comment toady
toady's picture

That's a good possibility, but a minor part of the big picture.

What are they really trying to accomplish? How can such OBVIOUSLY manipulated numbers slide by unquestioned?

The only conclusion I have so far is that it's a show of strength. 'We can and will manipulate ANYTHING and EVERYTHING, and even do it out in the open for EVERYONE to see, and there is nothing you can do about it'.

Don't question it, take it on faith.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:58 | Link to Comment Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

Sounds like the jobs algo is outta whack!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:53 | Link to Comment mrktwtch2
mrktwtch2's picture

i think we fade by the eod as this guarantees no qe 3..

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:54 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I wonder if Rick Santelli has the balls to bring this up. I bet someone throws an egg at him on the air if he does.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:01 | Link to Comment Barry Mcokiner
Barry Mcokiner's picture

Food is not allowed on the trading floor.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:04 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

I had the same thought reading the headline. Rick if you are out there, bring it up. Pleaaassse. Come on man, you can do it. Don't tell them you are gonna do it, just do it.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:20 | Link to Comment Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Don't count on it ...

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:40 | Link to Comment bdc63
bdc63's picture

I have seen him bring up the adjustmens before ... not sure why you don't think he would do it this time ...

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:53 | Link to Comment the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

No QE for you.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:56 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Don't need QE.....got food stamps. What do you think I buy my gold with?

 

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:12 | Link to Comment This just in
This just in's picture

You can eat gold?

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:29 | Link to Comment Coldsun
Coldsun's picture

You can use your EBT at casinos and strip clubs, why not at gold vendors?

Plus, I like getting my gold formed into useful blunt objects. I'll take your food after I beat you with my gold billy club. Ultra utilitarianism.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:53 | Link to Comment Racer
Racer's picture

A make believe eCONomy

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:05 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

The con is quite real.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:54 | Link to Comment Fidel Sarcastro
Fidel Sarcastro's picture

BLS -- Hey, make it work....whatever it takes!  Massage those # until u get what u want and what the pres. needs

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:59 | Link to Comment MillionDollarBoner_
MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

Start with the number you want and work backwards ;o)

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:19 | Link to Comment toady
toady's picture

My boss did that. She never did like the real numbers.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:06 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Only in a house of ill repute can you get massages like that....

I'm waiting for it...

I set the ball in play...

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:54 | Link to Comment homer8043
homer8043's picture

Why does everyone freak ouut sbout 0.001% every month and whether that it is zero or 0.002%. The economy sucks either way.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:55 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Last. Big. Pumpjob.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:08 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Last. Really? You are one of the folks that keeps on telling us they can kick this can into forever.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:11 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

No, that would be me.

They can and will kick this fucker forever.  Who is going to stop them?  Who?  The problem with the counter arguement is that the presumption that they actually give a shit about the citizenry and the currency is true.  Otherwise, hell yes they'll continue to rape this corpse until it turns into dust.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:53 | Link to Comment i-dog
i-dog's picture

 
It depends:

... IF "they" DO have a plan, then they will only kick the can until a certain date, after which we will be presented with a new global currency and a new "fiscal management system" (in my view, with no commercial banks).

... If "they" DON'T have a plan, as many contend (or if there is no "they", as many contend), then they will most definitely keep kicking the can forever. Why not? Wouldn't you if you were just some dumb schmuck in the middle of the system with no power to change the actions of others?

I give it about 2 months until we find out whether the first option is in play.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 12:59 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

I like how open you are even though you believe what you believe. Makes this place downright livable.

+-dog!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:56 | Link to Comment bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

it seems like i saw about 52,000 EBT cards used in my local stores last week so that particular number is probably pretty accurate.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:56 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

@BLS

You keep fudgin'... I'll keep stackin'...

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:56 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Next you will tell me that inflation driven by QE isn't actual economic growth.

I suppose Santa Claus isn't real either.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:17 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Wait, so you're saying that if I purchase 10,000 squares of roofing shingles at $88 per square, that's going to show up as greater economic activity than if I were to buy 12,000 squares of roofing shingles at $61 per square, according to the gatekeepers and data crunchers of all things economic?

And in effect, I'm actually getting less utility and material and therefore am not able to be as productive or produce as much income with the former, to boot?

 

WTF!!!!!!!

I'M CALLING KRUGMAN TO VERIFY THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:53 | Link to Comment ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

No, no, the increase to GDP would be 12000*61 + 12000*27. Because you were getting more value for your roof shingle, they would add the decrease in cost to GDP as well as what you actually spent. They do the same thing with TV's and computers.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:57 | Link to Comment MillionDollarBoner_
MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

Yay!

DOW 25,000 by Xmas.

Coke and hookers all round!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:11 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

And free HBO!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:57 | Link to Comment Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

paging rush limbaugh.. your table is ready

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:58 | Link to Comment Fantasy Planet
Fantasy Planet's picture

My ammo added 5,000 last mo. 

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:14 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Vs. 400 million 40 cal hollowpoints......better stack faster amigo.

 

Not sure what they're gonna do if the job calls for a 357 magnum round....cause they totally forgot to buy any of those.

 

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 12:16 | Link to Comment JimBowie1958
JimBowie1958's picture

The vast majority of that 400m ammo is never going to be used, and if they roll it out to use on Americans, it will be used back on them. Because those cowardly fucks that will shoot their own countrymen in order to preserve tyrany will drop their shit and run when the fight gets tough.

The government is always the best supplier of rebel forces. Just look at Syria.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 13:32 | Link to Comment takinthehighway
takinthehighway's picture

Slightly OT, but you folks might want to consider these adapters to allow different calibers to be used in a 12 gauge shotgun...

www.gunadapters.com

 

 

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:59 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

BLS works for Obamerrama...what'd you expect

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:00 | Link to Comment caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

dont know how this market loves the bullshit that comes from the govt. wait a minute I remember now,computers are as dumb as the fools that program them!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:01 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL, everyone so easily herded.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:13 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Rawhide baby!

 

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:27 | Link to Comment toady
toady's picture

That's what's really killing me here... Did any of these people yelling BUY BUY BUY! read this report?

I know, the HFT's saw the headline, etc, no people involved .. .

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:01 | Link to Comment caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

dont know how this market loves the bullshit that comes from the govt. wait a minute I remember now,computers are as dumb as the fools that program them!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:03 | Link to Comment Turin Turambar
Turin Turambar's picture

BLS = Bureau of Lying Statisticians

What's the over/under for a fresh Biderman rant?  My bet is 6 hours.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:03 | Link to Comment MillionDollarBoner_
MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

BLS = the ticker for BuLlShit

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:17 | Link to Comment Need More Cowbell
Need More Cowbell's picture

I'll bet Biderman is filming it right now - I can almost see the ships in the distance...

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:02 | Link to Comment JackT
JackT's picture

Brer Rabbit comes to mind. 

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:07 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

NAH dont worry about it see all the geniuses have it all figured out its just 'ObaMao punkin Mittens' see and ya gotta buy stawks everyones got it all figured out.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:03 | Link to Comment Börjesson
Börjesson's picture

I'm getting lost in a set of mixed conspiracy theories here. Wasn't the idea that "they" WANTED a bad number, in order to be able to launch QE3? If so, then why would they massage the numbers upwards?

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:08 | Link to Comment same old story
same old story's picture

agreed.  I thought the fed had to do QE to keep the market up.  

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:13 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

And what would stop them from doing QE anyway?  What?  The stock market being "up"?

They'll do whatever the hell they want to. 

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:33 | Link to Comment scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

well no they can just buy to cover 62,000 /es at 2:00am est. and start the momo's with a 12 /es point lead out of the gates, but once the momo's run out of buying leverage it should all come back to reality as all the bullshit gets digested for what it is.. are so I'm thinking.

 

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:56 | Link to Comment ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

My personal conspiracy theory is that they float these things as trial balloons to see what works best. This one is the "just lie about the numbers and see if everyone swallows the headline number". So far, seems to be working pretty well.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 11:58 | Link to Comment Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

We wouldn't know either way.  We're not in the club.  Who the fuck knows?  Only way to win is not to play.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:08 | Link to Comment Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Longest stretch on record above 8%....and rising.

Even with the voodoo magic math.

We're not in recession right? RIGHT

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:05 | Link to Comment DeFeralCat
DeFeralCat's picture

Obama just punked Romney.  The BLS probably added all of Romney's seasonal election workers as private sector hires.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:06 | Link to Comment james larson
james larson's picture

My award for best Business Fiction goes to MSNBC

 

Economy's job engine revved up in July
Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:13 | Link to Comment the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Amazing isn't it.  I don't think allot of people are buying it though.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 07:57 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

As I witness the devistation.....I sense this thrill running up my leg.

 

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:07 | Link to Comment Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

When a central banker says "whatever it takes" they mean it!

 

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:08 | Link to Comment Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

gee. and wall street just is perplexed why retail is getting out in droves. duh!!! youd think they just  printed a +700k. totally fake gamed joke.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:08 | Link to Comment This is the end
This is the end's picture

Hey Tylers, you think QE3 is off the table? Market screaming higher, dollar lower, oil up $2.50. You forgot to tell the people who run the markets that QE is off.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 12:02 | Link to Comment Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Talking about QE is never off the table.  Actual QE is still currently in operation through December, at which point they'll probably just keep on keeping on with duration manipulation (base case) with potential further action at any point if the Dow gets anywhere close to dropping under 10K.  Perpetual jawbone market underpinned with perpetual duration manip QE.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:08 | Link to Comment Byte Me
Byte Me's picture

Sussed it at last!!

FartBark sells the BLS a proportion of its 'Fake Users' each month so as to draw down on this "resource".

The BLS coin-flips / snorts-a-line / ouija-boards the stats and names back into the BD model.

Result, everyone gets a bit of what they want to see, and it all makes perfect BULLSHIT.

Simple...

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:13 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea well....I'm not so convinced at all markets just shift from 'WE DEMAND FREE MONIES RIGHT NOW' to 'Oh, its all good? Economy fixed!'...suckers buyin into this garbage.

Lets see...just last week all markets were going to implode if we didnt immediately get huge free money, now we've shifted to this week 'all is well....the economy is great'?

Only pure SUCKERS buying any of this BS. And BTW no way they coast this crap another 6 months on fumes.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:12 | Link to Comment gookempucky
gookempucky's picture

BLS is bullshit---first link.  Click U6 that is within the article----BLS website --U6 info not available.

The big Pirates are really ramping up the bullshit.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48468748

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:14 | Link to Comment SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Looks like full amipulation mode back ON;  /ES pumped 14 from 4:01 pm yesterday to 8:29 am today.  GD elitist crook mofos.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:18 | Link to Comment Blue Horshoe Lo...
Blue Horshoe Loves Annacott Steel's picture

 

Good news = bullish

Bad news = bullish (it could be worse)

Neutral news = bullish (at least it's not bad)

 

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:40 | Link to Comment tu-ne-cede-malis
tu-ne-cede-malis's picture

Bad news = bullish (More QE on the way)

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:22 | Link to Comment Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

I new this number was a con the moment it was released. All you have to do is look around. I talk to business owners all over the country and the climate is as bad as it has ever been for them. They are worried about staying afloat and not at all looking to hire.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:34 | Link to Comment Getting Old Sucks
Getting Old Sucks's picture

And wait till they all scramble to get to under 50 employees to prepare for Obummercare.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:24 | Link to Comment Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

and crude up nearly a +3pb .. how ya like that ongoing fuckjob joe sixpack? feel good? squeel like a pig while you worry about what chick fillet is doing cause after all thats what the msm tells you whats important.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:25 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

So is this why gasoline jumped $.40 at the stations last night? In anticipation of oil jumping to $100 by the end of the day today. The gas stations have prices set by the big corp. They probably all get inside info.

Either way, still more manipulation and fake statistics causing real harm in the real world.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:28 | Link to Comment Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

amen adr.. its so old. im gonna keep an eye on DTO. that cant allow it to get way above 90 .. it will awake the sheep.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:30 | Link to Comment AT
AT's picture

It's quite normal to drop a million plus jobs in July: ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/suppl/empsit.compaeu.txt

However, it is quite interesting that we've hit a new high in seasonal adjustments each year of the Obama administration. And it's also interesting to note that they've changed their counting methodology a couple of times over the last few years to show an extra 100-200k jobs each month.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:33 | Link to Comment marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

Note from the BLS:

Legal disclaimer-

The numbers from this report, both (SA) and (NSA) are for statistical reporting purposes only as required by federal regulation. The numbers contained may or may not be reflective of actual jobs additions and openings in the private sector and therefor may or may not be a wholly or semi accurate picture of actual employment gains and/or loses.

The seasonal adjustments (SA) contained herein are taken from a variety of sources and compiled in such as way so as to give the most accurate estimation of job additions that may or may not have been added on any given month. The BLS does not guarantee to any percentage (0 -100) the accuracy of these adjustments in terms of how reflective they are of "reality" or real, tangible and verifiable job additions in the private sector.  The stats contained in this report and others produced by the BLS are meant for political purposes and therefor should not be used in any other context. Any person who chooses to use these numbers assumes all risk involved with reporting these numbers as "fact" or reflective in any way of the reality of the employment situation in America.

Warmest regards,

BLS legal dept.

(all stats, figures, and statements in BLS published reports are for entertainment purposes only.)

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 02:48 | Link to Comment Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

marcus, would you by chance have the 'official' link for this disclaimer? Thanks.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:37 | Link to Comment dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

they should be audited, seriously

media just report the headline numbers, completely ignore what lies beneath, willingly or by plain laziness, as usual

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:39 | Link to Comment MilleniumJane
MilleniumJane's picture

They're spinning so fast, the G-forces must be equivilant to that of a neutron star or a black hole!

Wait a second.  I vote for black hole:  http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn10611-spinning-black-hole-is-fastest-on-record.html

1000 times per second?  Watch out for that event horizon everybody!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:43 | Link to Comment 1000yrdstare
1000yrdstare's picture

Yeah, and they just laid off 1500 people at GE's Atlanta office, including top level management.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:47 | Link to Comment Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

and obama is just laughing his ass off now. "i hoodwinked em again" haha. if im romney.. id drop. how can you campaign against a complete fraud.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:49 | Link to Comment SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Romney should have no problem in the "complete fraud" dept IMO.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:12 | Link to Comment bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

Keep in mind this is seasonally adjusted data

Count of the employed:

January 2012 - 141637
July 2012 - 142220

583k jobs added

Headline 'Jobs Added" Numbers:

July 163k
June 80k
May 69k
April 115k
March 120k
February 227k
January 243k

1,017k headline added

So, they are either highly incompetent, or lying.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:28 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Say it isn't so!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 11:34 | Link to Comment LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

I'd trust John Carney before the govt.

'Real' Unemployment Rate Shows Far More Jobless

And as Big Govt. points out

HERE COMES THE SPIN: JOBLESS RATE RISES, GOVERNMENT SAYS 'ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED'

snip

Look, also, for the media to emphasize that jobs grew by 163,000--without noting that the number is seasonally adjusted to account for one million holiday jobs lost each year at this time, and without noting that June's job numbers were revised downwards radically, from 80,000 to 64,000.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2012/08/03/Here-Comes-the-Spin-Jobless-Rate-Rises-to-8-3-Percent-Government-Says-Essentially-Unchanged?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 13:33 | Link to Comment westcoastlongshort
westcoastlongshort's picture

How do you calculate 377k jobs through seasonal adjustment?

163k (jobs added) - 52k (birth/death) - 377k (seasonal adjustment) = -266k lost jobs.

I calculate June to July (NSA) to be -76K and June to July (SA) to be -197k = a seasonal adjustment for July of -121k jobs.  

I'm just curious to know how this adds up for my own understanding moving forward.

 

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 16:03 | Link to Comment ken22207
ken22207's picture

These numbers are flat out wrong. The seasonal adjustment was not much different than the prior ten year average.

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