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Seasonal And Birth Death Adjustments Add 429,000 Statistical "Jobs"
Happy by the headline establishment survey print of 133,245 which says that the US "added" 163,000 jobs in July from 133,082 last month? Consider this: the number was based on a non seasonally adjusted July number of 132,868. This was a 1.248 million drop from the June print. So how did the smoothing work out to make a real plunge into an "adjusted" rise? Simple: the BLS "added" 377K jobs for seasonal purposes. This was the largest seasonal addition in the past decade for a July NFP print in the past decade, possibly ever, as the first chart below shows. But wait, there's more: the Birth Death adjustment, which adds to the NSA Print to get to the final number, was +52k. How does this compare to July 2011? It is about 1000% higher: the last B/D adjustment was a tiny +5K! In other words, of the 163,000 jobs "added", 429,000 was based on purely statistical fudging. Doesn't matter - the flashing red headline is good enough for the algos.
Seasonal Adjustment:
Birth Death:
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http://www.traddr.com/video/jobs-spanish-debt-and-the-u-s-dollar-have-markets-higher
Nice try.....I'm not clicking that link.....and I'm not pulling your finger either.
I'm not trusting anything until I hear from Barry 'I am the first, last and only word on translating the NFP' Ritholtz (aka Barry 'The BLS Is A Shining Beacon of Statistical Accuracy' Ritholtz), damnit.
If green futures dissolve to red intraday and @ eod, then word has gotten out that QExwhatever is ON, bitchez.
Perception IS reality!
The numbers are worked out in so many different ways. At any rate we all know, things are still not great.
How do you actually solve a problem, with no real solutions.
Like posted earlier, a must to keep up on
http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
2+2= 10 Its fractional reserve employment.
1+1 = 3 (without a condom)
Somebody buy the government a condom!
Could be 7 if you had Quintuplets.
It's good to see Zero Hedge getting recognition for doing the heavy lifting in separating the wheat from the chaff in terms of NFP datum and statistical torturing that the 'mainstream financial media' apparently can't be bothered with:
Barron's cites Zero Hedge critique of the July NFP report:
Barron's: Headline or Headfake?
Let us all go long KCG and AAPL.
Two of America's best companies.
Best print possible
Overall unemployment goes up to 8.3% (QE3 possible)
Large beat on NFP hires (real recovery possible)
This will lift stocks up, while gold/silver just stay flat.
The good news is we can ignore those other things like earnings.
Sad that you think the stock market and government reports actually represent the economy.
When you play Monopoly, do you think you are actually buying real property and building real hotels?
FUCK YEA!
Time to be bying sum stox!!!
I should remind you it's just the adjustments.....the revisions are out later.
Huh? Ah, forget that stuff. This sucka is going to the MOON!
Hell Yeah! Got me some Obama money coming in that wez could use!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fOZ-Etb0k0Q&noredirect=1
this is nothing but a completely manipulated, and purpose built, campaign tool for Oblama to hose Romney.
That's a good possibility, but a minor part of the big picture.
What are they really trying to accomplish? How can such OBVIOUSLY manipulated numbers slide by unquestioned?
The only conclusion I have so far is that it's a show of strength. 'We can and will manipulate ANYTHING and EVERYTHING, and even do it out in the open for EVERYONE to see, and there is nothing you can do about it'.
Don't question it, take it on faith.
Sounds like the jobs algo is outta whack!
i think we fade by the eod as this guarantees no qe 3..
I wonder if Rick Santelli has the balls to bring this up. I bet someone throws an egg at him on the air if he does.
Food is not allowed on the trading floor.
I had the same thought reading the headline. Rick if you are out there, bring it up. Pleaaassse. Come on man, you can do it. Don't tell them you are gonna do it, just do it.
Don't count on it ...
I have seen him bring up the adjustmens before ... not sure why you don't think he would do it this time ...
No QE for you.
Don't need QE.....got food stamps. What do you think I buy my gold with?
You can eat gold?
You can use your EBT at casinos and strip clubs, why not at gold vendors?
Plus, I like getting my gold formed into useful blunt objects. I'll take your food after I beat you with my gold billy club. Ultra utilitarianism.
A make believe eCONomy
The con is quite real.
BLS -- Hey, make it work....whatever it takes! Massage those # until u get what u want and what the pres. needs
Start with the number you want and work backwards ;o)
My boss did that. She never did like the real numbers.
Only in a house of ill repute can you get massages like that....
I'm waiting for it...
I set the ball in play...
Why does everyone freak ouut sbout 0.001% every month and whether that it is zero or 0.002%. The economy sucks either way.
Last. Big. Pumpjob.
Last. Really? You are one of the folks that keeps on telling us they can kick this can into forever.
No, that would be me.
They can and will kick this fucker forever. Who is going to stop them? Who? The problem with the counter arguement is that the presumption that they actually give a shit about the citizenry and the currency is true. Otherwise, hell yes they'll continue to rape this corpse until it turns into dust.
It depends:
... IF "they" DO have a plan, then they will only kick the can until a certain date, after which we will be presented with a new global currency and a new "fiscal management system" (in my view, with no commercial banks).
... If "they" DON'T have a plan, as many contend (or if there is no "they", as many contend), then they will most definitely keep kicking the can forever. Why not? Wouldn't you if you were just some dumb schmuck in the middle of the system with no power to change the actions of others?
I give it about 2 months until we find out whether the first option is in play.
I like how open you are even though you believe what you believe. Makes this place downright livable.
+-dog!
it seems like i saw about 52,000 EBT cards used in my local stores last week so that particular number is probably pretty accurate.
@BLS
You keep fudgin'... I'll keep stackin'...
Next you will tell me that inflation driven by QE isn't actual economic growth.
I suppose Santa Claus isn't real either.
Wait, so you're saying that if I purchase 10,000 squares of roofing shingles at $88 per square, that's going to show up as greater economic activity than if I were to buy 12,000 squares of roofing shingles at $61 per square, according to the gatekeepers and data crunchers of all things economic?
And in effect, I'm actually getting less utility and material and therefore am not able to be as productive or produce as much income with the former, to boot?
WTF!!!!!!!
I'M CALLING KRUGMAN TO VERIFY THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
No, no, the increase to GDP would be 12000*61 + 12000*27. Because you were getting more value for your roof shingle, they would add the decrease in cost to GDP as well as what you actually spent. They do the same thing with TV's and computers.
Yay!
DOW 25,000 by Xmas.
Coke and hookers all round!
And free HBO!
paging rush limbaugh.. your table is ready
My ammo added 5,000 last mo.
Vs. 400 million 40 cal hollowpoints......better stack faster amigo.
Not sure what they're gonna do if the job calls for a 357 magnum round....cause they totally forgot to buy any of those.
The vast majority of that 400m ammo is never going to be used, and if they roll it out to use on Americans, it will be used back on them. Because those cowardly fucks that will shoot their own countrymen in order to preserve tyrany will drop their shit and run when the fight gets tough.
The government is always the best supplier of rebel forces. Just look at Syria.
Slightly OT, but you folks might want to consider these adapters to allow different calibers to be used in a 12 gauge shotgun...
www.gunadapters.com
BLS works for Obamerrama...what'd you expect
dont know how this market loves the bullshit that comes from the govt. wait a minute I remember now,computers are as dumb as the fools that program them!
LOL, everyone so easily herded.
Rawhide baby!
That's what's really killing me here... Did any of these people yelling BUY BUY BUY! read this report?
I know, the HFT's saw the headline, etc, no people involved .. .
dont know how this market loves the bullshit that comes from the govt. wait a minute I remember now,computers are as dumb as the fools that program them!
BLS = Bureau of Lying Statisticians
What's the over/under for a fresh Biderman rant? My bet is 6 hours.
BLS = the ticker for BuLlShit
I'll bet Biderman is filming it right now - I can almost see the ships in the distance...
Brer Rabbit comes to mind.
Is there any truth to this:
http://beforeitsnews.com/economy/2012/08/this-is-exactly-what-happened-days-before-911-at-10-am-the-stock-exchange-trading-went-off-the-charts-video-2444664.html
NAH dont worry about it see all the geniuses have it all figured out its just 'ObaMao punkin Mittens' see and ya gotta buy stawks everyones got it all figured out.
I'm getting lost in a set of mixed conspiracy theories here. Wasn't the idea that "they" WANTED a bad number, in order to be able to launch QE3? If so, then why would they massage the numbers upwards?
agreed. I thought the fed had to do QE to keep the market up.
And what would stop them from doing QE anyway? What? The stock market being "up"?
They'll do whatever the hell they want to.
well no they can just buy to cover 62,000 /es at 2:00am est. and start the momo's with a 12 /es point lead out of the gates, but once the momo's run out of buying leverage it should all come back to reality as all the bullshit gets digested for what it is.. are so I'm thinking.
My personal conspiracy theory is that they float these things as trial balloons to see what works best. This one is the "just lie about the numbers and see if everyone swallows the headline number". So far, seems to be working pretty well.
We wouldn't know either way. We're not in the club. Who the fuck knows? Only way to win is not to play.
Longest stretch on record above 8%....and rising.
Even with the voodoo magic math.
We're not in recession right? RIGHT
Obama just punked Romney. The BLS probably added all of Romney's seasonal election workers as private sector hires.
My award for best Business Fiction goes to MSNBC
Economy's job engine revved up in JulyAmazing isn't it. I don't think allot of people are buying it though.
As I witness the devistation.....I sense this thrill running up my leg.
When a central banker says "whatever it takes" they mean it!
gee. and wall street just is perplexed why retail is getting out in droves. duh!!! youd think they just printed a +700k. totally fake gamed joke.
Hey Tylers, you think QE3 is off the table? Market screaming higher, dollar lower, oil up $2.50. You forgot to tell the people who run the markets that QE is off.
Talking about QE is never off the table. Actual QE is still currently in operation through December, at which point they'll probably just keep on keeping on with duration manipulation (base case) with potential further action at any point if the Dow gets anywhere close to dropping under 10K. Perpetual jawbone market underpinned with perpetual duration manip QE.
Sussed it at last!!
FartBark sells the BLS a proportion of its 'Fake Users' each month so as to draw down on this "resource".
The BLS coin-flips / snorts-a-line / ouija-boards the stats and names back into the BD model.
Result, everyone gets a bit of what they want to see, and it all makes perfect BULLSHIT.
Simple...
Yea well....I'm not so convinced at all markets just shift from 'WE DEMAND FREE MONIES RIGHT NOW' to 'Oh, its all good? Economy fixed!'...suckers buyin into this garbage.
Lets see...just last week all markets were going to implode if we didnt immediately get huge free money, now we've shifted to this week 'all is well....the economy is great'?
Only pure SUCKERS buying any of this BS. And BTW no way they coast this crap another 6 months on fumes.
BLS is bullshit---first link. Click U6 that is within the article----BLS website --U6 info not available.
The big Pirates are really ramping up the bullshit.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48468748
Looks like full amipulation mode back ON; /ES pumped 14 from 4:01 pm yesterday to 8:29 am today. GD elitist crook mofos.
Good news = bullish
Bad news = bullish (it could be worse)
Neutral news = bullish (at least it's not bad)
Bad news = bullish (More QE on the way)
I new this number was a con the moment it was released. All you have to do is look around. I talk to business owners all over the country and the climate is as bad as it has ever been for them. They are worried about staying afloat and not at all looking to hire.
And wait till they all scramble to get to under 50 employees to prepare for Obummercare.
and crude up nearly a +3pb .. how ya like that ongoing fuckjob joe sixpack? feel good? squeel like a pig while you worry about what chick fillet is doing cause after all thats what the msm tells you whats important.
So is this why gasoline jumped $.40 at the stations last night? In anticipation of oil jumping to $100 by the end of the day today. The gas stations have prices set by the big corp. They probably all get inside info.
Either way, still more manipulation and fake statistics causing real harm in the real world.
amen adr.. its so old. im gonna keep an eye on DTO. that cant allow it to get way above 90 .. it will awake the sheep.
It's quite normal to drop a million plus jobs in July: ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/suppl/empsit.compaeu.txt
However, it is quite interesting that we've hit a new high in seasonal adjustments each year of the Obama administration. And it's also interesting to note that they've changed their counting methodology a couple of times over the last few years to show an extra 100-200k jobs each month.
Note from the BLS:
Legal disclaimer-
The numbers from this report, both (SA) and (NSA) are for statistical reporting purposes only as required by federal regulation. The numbers contained may or may not be reflective of actual jobs additions and openings in the private sector and therefor may or may not be a wholly or semi accurate picture of actual employment gains and/or loses.
The seasonal adjustments (SA) contained herein are taken from a variety of sources and compiled in such as way so as to give the most accurate estimation of job additions that may or may not have been added on any given month. The BLS does not guarantee to any percentage (0 -100) the accuracy of these adjustments in terms of how reflective they are of "reality" or real, tangible and verifiable job additions in the private sector. The stats contained in this report and others produced by the BLS are meant for political purposes and therefor should not be used in any other context. Any person who chooses to use these numbers assumes all risk involved with reporting these numbers as "fact" or reflective in any way of the reality of the employment situation in America.
Warmest regards,
BLS legal dept.
(all stats, figures, and statements in BLS published reports are for entertainment purposes only.)
marcus, would you by chance have the 'official' link for this disclaimer? Thanks.
they should be audited, seriously
media just report the headline numbers, completely ignore what lies beneath, willingly or by plain laziness, as usual
They're spinning so fast, the G-forces must be equivilant to that of a neutron star or a black hole!
Wait a second. I vote for black hole: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn10611-spinning-black-hole-is-fastest-on-record.html
1000 times per second? Watch out for that event horizon everybody!
Yeah, and they just laid off 1500 people at GE's Atlanta office, including top level management.
and obama is just laughing his ass off now. "i hoodwinked em again" haha. if im romney.. id drop. how can you campaign against a complete fraud.
Romney should have no problem in the "complete fraud" dept IMO.
Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey
Keep in mind this is seasonally adjusted data
Count of the employed:
January 2012 - 141637
July 2012 - 142220
583k jobs added
Headline 'Jobs Added" Numbers:
July 163k
June 80k
May 69k
April 115k
March 120k
February 227k
January 243k
1,017k headline added
So, they are either highly incompetent, or lying.
Say it isn't so!
I'd trust John Carney before the govt.
'Real' Unemployment Rate Shows Far More Jobless
And as Big Govt. points out
HERE COMES THE SPIN: JOBLESS RATE RISES, GOVERNMENT SAYS 'ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED'
snip
Look, also, for the media to emphasize that jobs grew by 163,000--without noting that the number is seasonally adjusted to account for one million holiday jobs lost each year at this time, and without noting that June's job numbers were revised downwards radically, from 80,000 to 64,000.
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2012/08/03/Here-Comes-the-Spin-Jobless-Rate-Rises-to-8-3-Percent-Government-Says-Essentially-Unchanged?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
How do you calculate 377k jobs through seasonal adjustment?
163k (jobs added) - 52k (birth/death) - 377k (seasonal adjustment) = -266k lost jobs.
I calculate June to July (NSA) to be -76K and June to July (SA) to be -197k = a seasonal adjustment for July of -121k jobs.
I'm just curious to know how this adds up for my own understanding moving forward.
These numbers are flat out wrong. The seasonal adjustment was not much different than the prior ten year average.