Seasonal And Birth Death Adjustments Add 429,000 Statistical "Jobs"

Tyler Durden's picture

Happy by the headline establishment survey print of 133,245 which says that the US "added" 163,000 jobs in July from 133,082 last month? Consider this: the number was based on a non seasonally adjusted July number of 132,868. This was a 1.248 million drop from the June print. So how did the smoothing work out to make a real plunge into an "adjusted" rise? Simple: the BLS "added" 377K jobs for seasonal purposes. This was the largest seasonal addition in the past decade for a July NFP print in the past decade, possibly ever, as the first chart below shows. But wait, there's more: the Birth Death adjustment, which adds to the NSA Print to get to the final number, was +52k. How does this compare to July 2011? It is about 1000% higher: the last B/D adjustment was a tiny +5K! In other words, of the 163,000 jobs "added", 429,000 was based on purely statistical fudging. Doesn't matter - the flashing red headline is good enough for the algos.

Seasonal Adjustment:

Birth Death:

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GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Nice try.....I'm not clicking that link.....and I'm not pulling your finger either.

 

TruthInSunshine's picture

I'm not trusting anything until I hear from Barry 'I am the first, last and only word on translating the NFP' Ritholtz (aka Barry 'The BLS Is A Shining Beacon of Statistical Accuracy' Ritholtz), damnit.

 

If green futures dissolve to red intraday and @ eod, then word has gotten out that QExwhatever is ON, bitchez.

Shocker's picture

The numbers are worked out in so many different ways. At any rate we all know, things are still not great.

How do you actually solve a problem, with no real solutions.

Like posted earlier, a must to keep up on

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

Rick64's picture

2+2= 10  Its fractional reserve employment.

Pladizow's picture

1+1 = 3 (without a condom)

D-Man's picture

Somebody buy the government a condom!

Rick64's picture

Could be 7 if you had Quintuplets. 

TruthInSunshine's picture

It's good to see Zero Hedge getting recognition for doing the heavy lifting in separating the wheat from the chaff in terms of NFP datum and statistical torturing that the 'mainstream financial media' apparently can't be bothered with:

 

Barron's cites Zero Hedge critique of the July NFP report:

Barron's: Headline or Headfake?

 

slaughterer's picture

Let us all go long KCG and AAPL.

Two of America's best companies. 

slaughterer's picture

Best print possible

Overall unemployment goes up to 8.3% (QE3 possible)

Large beat on NFP hires (real recovery possible)

This will lift stocks up, while gold/silver just stay flat.

fonzannoon's picture

The good news is we can ignore those other things like earnings.

adr's picture

Sad that you think the stock market and government reports actually represent the economy.

When you play Monopoly, do you think you are actually buying real property and building real hotels?

Boilermaker's picture

FUCK YEA!

Time to be bying sum stox!!!

GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I should remind you it's just the adjustments.....the revisions are out later.

 

Boilermaker's picture

Huh?  Ah, forget that stuff.  This sucka is going to the MOON!

Coldsun's picture

Hell Yeah! Got me some Obama money coming in that wez could use!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fOZ-Etb0k0Q&noredirect=1

LongSoupLine's picture

this is nothing but a completely manipulated, and purpose built, campaign tool for Oblama to hose Romney.

toady's picture

That's a good possibility, but a minor part of the big picture.

What are they really trying to accomplish? How can such OBVIOUSLY manipulated numbers slide by unquestioned?

The only conclusion I have so far is that it's a show of strength. 'We can and will manipulate ANYTHING and EVERYTHING, and even do it out in the open for EVERYONE to see, and there is nothing you can do about it'.

Don't question it, take it on faith.

Zymurguy's picture

Sounds like the jobs algo is outta whack!

mrktwtch2's picture

i think we fade by the eod as this guarantees no qe 3..

fonzannoon's picture

I wonder if Rick Santelli has the balls to bring this up. I bet someone throws an egg at him on the air if he does.

Barry Mcokiner's picture

Food is not allowed on the trading floor.

MsCreant's picture

I had the same thought reading the headline. Rick if you are out there, bring it up. Pleaaassse. Come on man, you can do it. Don't tell them you are gonna do it, just do it.

bdc63's picture

I have seen him bring up the adjustmens before ... not sure why you don't think he would do it this time ...

GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Don't need QE.....got food stamps. What do you think I buy my gold with?

 

Coldsun's picture

You can use your EBT at casinos and strip clubs, why not at gold vendors?

Plus, I like getting my gold formed into useful blunt objects. I'll take your food after I beat you with my gold billy club. Ultra utilitarianism.

Racer's picture

A make believe eCONomy

MsCreant's picture

The con is quite real.

Fidel Sarcastro's picture

BLS -- Hey, make it work....whatever it takes!  Massage those # until u get what u want and what the pres. needs

MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

Start with the number you want and work backwards ;o)

toady's picture

My boss did that. She never did like the real numbers.

MsCreant's picture

Only in a house of ill repute can you get massages like that....

I'm waiting for it...

I set the ball in play...

homer8043's picture

Why does everyone freak ouut sbout 0.001% every month and whether that it is zero or 0.002%. The economy sucks either way.

SheepDog-One's picture

Last. Big. Pumpjob.

MsCreant's picture

Last. Really? You are one of the folks that keeps on telling us they can kick this can into forever.

Boilermaker's picture

No, that would be me.

They can and will kick this fucker forever.  Who is going to stop them?  Who?  The problem with the counter arguement is that the presumption that they actually give a shit about the citizenry and the currency is true.  Otherwise, hell yes they'll continue to rape this corpse until it turns into dust.

i-dog's picture

 
It depends:

... IF "they" DO have a plan, then they will only kick the can until a certain date, after which we will be presented with a new global currency and a new "fiscal management system" (in my view, with no commercial banks).

... If "they" DON'T have a plan, as many contend (or if there is no "they", as many contend), then they will most definitely keep kicking the can forever. Why not? Wouldn't you if you were just some dumb schmuck in the middle of the system with no power to change the actions of others?

I give it about 2 months until we find out whether the first option is in play.

MsCreant's picture

I like how open you are even though you believe what you believe. Makes this place downright livable.

+-dog!

bigdumbnugly's picture

it seems like i saw about 52,000 EBT cards used in my local stores last week so that particular number is probably pretty accurate.

francis_sawyer's picture

@BLS

You keep fudgin'... I'll keep stackin'...

lizzy36's picture

Next you will tell me that inflation driven by QE isn't actual economic growth.

I suppose Santa Claus isn't real either.

TruthInSunshine's picture

Wait, so you're saying that if I purchase 10,000 squares of roofing shingles at $88 per square, that's going to show up as greater economic activity than if I were to buy 12,000 squares of roofing shingles at $61 per square, according to the gatekeepers and data crunchers of all things economic?

And in effect, I'm actually getting less utility and material and therefore am not able to be as productive or produce as much income with the former, to boot?

 

WTF!!!!!!!

I'M CALLING KRUGMAN TO VERIFY THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ElvisDog's picture

No, no, the increase to GDP would be 12000*61 + 12000*27. Because you were getting more value for your roof shingle, they would add the decrease in cost to GDP as well as what you actually spent. They do the same thing with TV's and computers.

MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

Yay!

DOW 25,000 by Xmas.

Coke and hookers all round!