• Sprott Money
    05/06/2016 - 06:03
    The US, in its own decline, is showing this same self-destructive tendency. The worse things get, the greater the inclination of the citizenry to say, “Carry on, everything’s fine.”

Seasonal And Birth Death Adjustments Add 429,000 Statistical "Jobs"

Tyler Durden's picture


Happy by the headline establishment survey print of 133,245 which says that the US "added" 163,000 jobs in July from 133,082 last month? Consider this: the number was based on a non seasonally adjusted July number of 132,868. This was a 1.248 million drop from the June print. So how did the smoothing work out to make a real plunge into an "adjusted" rise? Simple: the BLS "added" 377K jobs for seasonal purposes. This was the largest seasonal addition in the past decade for a July NFP print in the past decade, possibly ever, as the first chart below shows. But wait, there's more: the Birth Death adjustment, which adds to the NSA Print to get to the final number, was +52k. How does this compare to July 2011? It is about 1000% higher: the last B/D adjustment was a tiny +5K! In other words, of the 163,000 jobs "added", 429,000 was based on purely statistical fudging. Doesn't matter - the flashing red headline is good enough for the algos.

Seasonal Adjustment:

Birth Death:

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Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:52 | 2675348 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Nice try.....I'm not clicking that link.....and I'm not pulling your finger either.


Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:03 | 2675388 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I'm not trusting anything until I hear from Barry 'I am the first, last and only word on translating the NFP' Ritholtz (aka Barry 'The BLS Is A Shining Beacon of Statistical Accuracy' Ritholtz), damnit.


If green futures dissolve to red intraday and @ eod, then word has gotten out that QExwhatever is ON, bitchez.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:05 | 2675410 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Perception IS reality!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:09 | 2675424 Shocker
Shocker's picture

The numbers are worked out in so many different ways. At any rate we all know, things are still not great.

How do you actually solve a problem, with no real solutions.

Like posted earlier, a must to keep up on


Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:23 | 2675491 Rick64
Rick64's picture

2+2= 10  Its fractional reserve employment.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:37 | 2675539 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

1+1 = 3 (without a condom)

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:53 | 2675591 D-Man
D-Man's picture

Somebody buy the government a condom!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:59 | 2675600 Rick64
Rick64's picture

Could be 7 if you had Quintuplets. 

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 15:06 | 2678342 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

It's good to see Zero Hedge getting recognition for doing the heavy lifting in separating the wheat from the chaff in terms of NFP datum and statistical torturing that the 'mainstream financial media' apparently can't be bothered with:


Barron's cites Zero Hedge critique of the July NFP report:

Barron's: Headline or Headfake?


Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:02 | 2675400 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Let us all go long KCG and AAPL.

Two of America's best companies. 

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:13 | 2675438 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Best print possible

Overall unemployment goes up to 8.3% (QE3 possible)

Large beat on NFP hires (real recovery possible)

This will lift stocks up, while gold/silver just stay flat.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:16 | 2675457 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

The good news is we can ignore those other things like earnings.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:18 | 2675468 adr
adr's picture

Sad that you think the stock market and government reports actually represent the economy.

When you play Monopoly, do you think you are actually buying real property and building real hotels?

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:53 | 2675345 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture


Time to be bying sum stox!!!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:54 | 2675361 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



I should remind you it's just the adjustments.....the revisions are out later.


Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:09 | 2675425 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Huh?  Ah, forget that stuff.  This sucka is going to the MOON!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:23 | 2675493 Coldsun
Coldsun's picture

Hell Yeah! Got me some Obama money coming in that wez could use!


Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:15 | 2675453 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

this is nothing but a completely manipulated, and purpose built, campaign tool for Oblama to hose Romney.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 11:18 | 2675644 toady
toady's picture

That's a good possibility, but a minor part of the big picture.

What are they really trying to accomplish? How can such OBVIOUSLY manipulated numbers slide by unquestioned?

The only conclusion I have so far is that it's a show of strength. 'We can and will manipulate ANYTHING and EVERYTHING, and even do it out in the open for EVERYONE to see, and there is nothing you can do about it'.

Don't question it, take it on faith.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:58 | 2675598 Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

Sounds like the jobs algo is outta whack!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:53 | 2675350 mrktwtch2
mrktwtch2's picture

i think we fade by the eod as this guarantees no qe 3..

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:54 | 2675364 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I wonder if Rick Santelli has the balls to bring this up. I bet someone throws an egg at him on the air if he does.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:01 | 2675392 Barry Mcokiner
Barry Mcokiner's picture

Food is not allowed on the trading floor.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:04 | 2675405 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

I had the same thought reading the headline. Rick if you are out there, bring it up. Pleaaassse. Come on man, you can do it. Don't tell them you are gonna do it, just do it.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:20 | 2675482 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Don't count on it ...

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:40 | 2675552 bdc63
bdc63's picture

I have seen him bring up the adjustmens before ... not sure why you don't think he would do it this time ...

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:53 | 2675354 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

No QE for you.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:56 | 2675368 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Don't need QE.....got food stamps. What do you think I buy my gold with?


Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:12 | 2675432 This just in
This just in's picture

You can eat gold?

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:29 | 2675514 Coldsun
Coldsun's picture

You can use your EBT at casinos and strip clubs, why not at gold vendors?

Plus, I like getting my gold formed into useful blunt objects. I'll take your food after I beat you with my gold billy club. Ultra utilitarianism.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:53 | 2675358 Racer
Racer's picture

A make believe eCONomy

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:05 | 2675408 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

The con is quite real.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:54 | 2675360 Fidel Sarcastro
Fidel Sarcastro's picture

BLS -- Hey, make it work....whatever it takes!  Massage those # until u get what u want and what the pres. needs

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:59 | 2675384 MillionDollarBoner_
MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

Start with the number you want and work backwards ;o)

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:19 | 2675674 toady
toady's picture

My boss did that. She never did like the real numbers.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:06 | 2675413 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Only in a house of ill repute can you get massages like that....

I'm waiting for it...

I set the ball in play...

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:54 | 2675363 homer8043
homer8043's picture

Why does everyone freak ouut sbout 0.001% every month and whether that it is zero or 0.002%. The economy sucks either way.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:55 | 2675367 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Last. Big. Pumpjob.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:08 | 2675416 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Last. Really? You are one of the folks that keeps on telling us they can kick this can into forever.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:11 | 2675429 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

No, that would be me.

They can and will kick this fucker forever.  Who is going to stop them?  Who?  The problem with the counter arguement is that the presumption that they actually give a shit about the citizenry and the currency is true.  Otherwise, hell yes they'll continue to rape this corpse until it turns into dust.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:53 | 2675797 i-dog
i-dog's picture

It depends:

... IF "they" DO have a plan, then they will only kick the can until a certain date, after which we will be presented with a new global currency and a new "fiscal management system" (in my view, with no commercial banks).

... If "they" DON'T have a plan, as many contend (or if there is no "they", as many contend), then they will most definitely keep kicking the can forever. Why not? Wouldn't you if you were just some dumb schmuck in the middle of the system with no power to change the actions of others?

I give it about 2 months until we find out whether the first option is in play.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 12:59 | 2676190 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

I like how open you are even though you believe what you believe. Makes this place downright livable.


Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:56 | 2675370 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

it seems like i saw about 52,000 EBT cards used in my local stores last week so that particular number is probably pretty accurate.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:56 | 2675373 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture


You keep fudgin'... I'll keep stackin'...

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:56 | 2675375 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Next you will tell me that inflation driven by QE isn't actual economic growth.

I suppose Santa Claus isn't real either.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:17 | 2675436 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Wait, so you're saying that if I purchase 10,000 squares of roofing shingles at $88 per square, that's going to show up as greater economic activity than if I were to buy 12,000 squares of roofing shingles at $61 per square, according to the gatekeepers and data crunchers of all things economic?

And in effect, I'm actually getting less utility and material and therefore am not able to be as productive or produce as much income with the former, to boot?




Fri, 08/03/2012 - 10:53 | 2675825 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

No, no, the increase to GDP would be 12000*61 + 12000*27. Because you were getting more value for your roof shingle, they would add the decrease in cost to GDP as well as what you actually spent. They do the same thing with TV's and computers.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:57 | 2675377 MillionDollarBoner_
MillionDollarBoner_'s picture


DOW 25,000 by Xmas.

Coke and hookers all round!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:11 | 2675430 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

And free HBO!

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