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The Second Act Of The JPM CIO Fiasco Has Arrived - Mismarking Hundreds Of Billions In Credit Default Swaps
As anyone who has ever traded CDS (or any other OTC, non-exchange traded product) knows, when you have a short risk position, unless compliance tells you to and they rarely do as they have no idea what CDS is most of the time, you always mark the EOD price at the offer, and vice versa, on long risk positions, you always use the bid. That way the P&L always looks better. And for portfolios in which the DV01 is in the hundreds of thousands of dollars (or much, much more if your name was Bruno Iksil), marking at either side of an illiquid market can result in tens if not hundreds of millions of unrealistic profits booked in advance, simply to make one's book look better, mostly for year end bonus purposes. Apparently JPM's soon to be fired Bruno Iksil was no stranger to this: as Bloomberg reports, JPM's CIO unit "was valuing some of its trades at prices that differed from those of its investment bank, according to people familiar with the matter. The discrepancy between prices used by the chief investment office and JPMorgan’s credit-swaps dealer, the biggest in the U.S., may have obscured by hundreds of millions of dollars the magnitude of the loss before it was disclosed May 10, said one of the people, who asked not to be identified because they aren’t authorized to discuss the matter. "I’ve never run into anything like that,” said Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.’s Brad Hintz in New York. “That’s why you have a centralized accounting group that’s comparing marks” between different parts of the bank “to make sure you don’t have any outliers,” said the former chief financial officer of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc."
At this point, Zero Hedge assumes that Iksil was merely abusing the little loophole used by every CDS trader since time immemorial, which however on a TRSed position of $100 billion in notional, which based on our calculations has a DV01 of $200 million, means that the bid/ask spread itself is worth $500 million in profit (and not so much loss).
However, if what Bloomberg is implying is that Iksil was effectively overriding "real" marks, and using imaginary (or "forced") bids and asks, then that brings into question the validity of CDS marks reported by MarkIt, the same MarkIt partially owned by Goldman and... that's right, JP Morgan (more on MarkIt in a moment).
But first, back to Bloomberg:
Jennifer Zuccarelli, a spokeswoman for New York-based JPMorgan, declined to comment on whether the CIO and investment bank were using different prices.
“All components of the synthetic credit portfolio in the chief investment office were mark-to-market,” she said.
The trades in question, made by a CIO group that included Bruno Iksil, nicknamed the London Whale because his positions grew so large, were on so-called tranches of credit-swap indexes, the people said.
Tranches allow investors to wager on varying degrees of risk among a pool of companies. Credit swaps pay the buyer face value if a borrower fails to meet its obligations, less the value of the defaulted debt.
Because JPMorgan had amassed such large positions, even a small change in how the prices were marked may have generated a big difference in the value of the trades, one of the people said.
While very little is known at this point, the realization that JPM did in fact abuse mark-to-market of a Level 1 security means that if Iksil's book was marked fairly, to mid-market alone, let alone to the real exit level opposite where it is most profitable (i.e., long risk as in the case of Bruno Iksil's IG9 holdings -> mark at offer, and vice versa), the losses would be materially greater, potentially up to hundreds of millions in the remarking process itself? And any further uncertainty about JPM's accrued losses, which we now know had to be covered up by tens of billions in asset sales from its portfolio (but, but JPM certainly did not need the cash) will merely add to the toxic spiral that is the pounding of JPM stock, coupled with further widening in IG9-10, which leads to even more JPM stock losses, which further blows out IG9-10 and so on.
One thing we do know is that in a recent case of a UBS prop trader, caught mismarking his CDS book, there was some serious litigation involved, and major accusation of illegalilty. Once again, from Bloomberg:
Ramon Braga, a trader on the bank’s corporate-credit desk in London, was fired for collusion in the alteration of “marked-to-market” values of credit default swaps by Denis Minayev, UBS staff said at an employment tribunal yesterday. Minayev, a proprietary trader, “re-marked” Braga’s trading book on 66 occasions, even though he shouldn’t have had the authority to do so, UBS investigator Richard Kennedy said.
“If you shift one of those markers, it can give a completely false picture,” employment Judge Graeme Hodgson said at the hearing.
Braga, who is suing for unfair dismissal, was an inexperienced trader who was “thrown in at the deep end,” his lawyer, Amy Sander, said at the hearing. He wasn’t aware of many of the changes Minayev made, she said, and thought his actions were permitted by managers. Braga was also accused by UBS of “procuring a false broker quote,” she said.
UBS is already dealing with the fallout from what the bank said were unauthorized trades by London-based UBS employee Kweku Adoboli, which led to a $2.3 billion loss, regulatory probes and the resignation of Chief Executive Officer Oswald Gruebel. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon said yesterday his New York-based firm suffered a $2 billion loss after a trading unit’s “egregious” failure to manage risks.
Dominik Von Arx, a spokesman for Zurich-based UBS, said Braga “was a junior employee” in the bank’s fixed-income, currency and commodities unit.
“He was dismissed for gross misconduct in October 2011 following an investigation into alleged mismarking,” Von Arx said in an e-mailed statement. “UBS has zero tolerance for such behavior.”
During cross-examination of Braga today, UBS lawyer Bruce Carr said Braga had asked a broker friend to send him a quote that justified changes made to his valuation, after a colleague said the price was too high.
“You get an entirely unsolicited e-mail that happens to fit” the valuation, Carr said. “That’s quite a coincidence, isn’t it?”
Braga responded that his “dismissal shouldn’t be based on speculation or coincidences.”
The product being re-marked was a credit default swap on European industrial-company bonds, which was illiquid and difficult to value because it was rarely traded.
Lawyers for Braga questioned Paolo Croce, UBS’s European head of rates, at the continuation of the hearing today about the close relationship between proprietary traders such as Minayev, who trade with the bank’s money, and flow traders like Braga, who execute orders on behalf of clients.
“All the other flow traders followed the direction of Mr. Minayev,” Braga’s lawyer said.
Croce said while flow and proprietary traders exchanged information, they weren’t supposed to take instructions on pricing.
Minayev had told Braga, “I need this to move,” according to Croce. “He told him ‘I’m down $9 million today.’”
Here are some preliminary question to set prosecutors on their marry way?
- How many times did JPM's CIO office "procure a false quote"?
- How many times did Iksil tell his middle office or subordinates: "I need this to move" - and if he kept it to himself, how many times did Iksil "make it move" on his own?
- How many times did the CIO "shift the IG-9 market and give a completely false picture?"
- How many times did Iksil get an external "quote" that overrode the official closing day MarkIt price, or, far worse, did JPM ever tell partially-owned MarkIt what mark to use for a given product, which would be an act of unprecedented illegality.
And this is just the beginning. The reality is that with this revelation it likely means that JPM is probably lying about the fair value of thousands if not millions of other OTC-based products. Which goes to one simple thing:
Non-existent internal controls!
Because while JPM can blame an entire prop trading office for a pair trade gone wrong, it will have a very tough time explaining how marks impacting billions in P&L could have sneaked past the middle and back office.
Which, however, is possible, at least in theory.
This brings us to MarkIt - a company that has long been in the public eye for being the primary source of CDS marks, which would be great if not for one small glitch: it is also partially owned by the same banks which stand to benefit if MarkIt "nudges" the market in one way or another.
The following report from Mark Mitchell from 2009 does a great job of exposing some of the potential dirt that MarkIt may be involved in, and raises some critical questions that have never been answered, and which if addressed in the past could have spared JPM shareholders, and potentially US taxpayers, billions in losses:
Last year, the media reported that New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo had sent subpoenas to Markit Group as part of an investigation into possible manipulation of credit default swap prices by short sellers. This investigation, like Mr. Cuomo’s other investigations into market manipulation, have yielded no prosecutions.
The Department of Justice is reportedly investigating Markit Group for anti-trust violations. This investigation (which is reportedly focused on how Markit Group packages and sells its information) seems to acknowledge that Market Group has near-monopolistic control of information about credit default swap prices. However, if the press reports are correct, the DOJ has not considered the possible appeal of this monopolistic control to market manipulators.
Meanwhile, Henry Hu, the director of the Securities and Exchange Commission’s division of risk, has said that it has been nearly impossible for the SEC to conduct investigations into any matter concerning credit default swaps because the commission does not have access to any data on the trading of CDSs. In itself, this is a shocking admission. It is all the more shocking when one considers that the necessary data exists and might be in the hands of The Markit Group – a black box company based in London.
A thorough investigation of Markit Group is urgently required.
Here is what we know so far:
- Markit Group was co-founded by Rony Grushka, Lance Uggla, and Kevin Gould. Prior to founding Markit Group, Mr. Grushka’s main line of business was investing in Bulgarian property developments. He recently resigned from the board of Orchid Developments Group, an Israeli-invested company based in Sophia, Bulgaria. Messrs. Uggla and Gould formerly worked for Toronto-Dominion Bank in Canada.
- Markit Group’s founders also include four hedge funds. However, Markit Group refuses to disclose the names of those hedge funds. In response to an inquiry, a Markit Group spokesman said it was “corporate policy” to keep the names of the hedge funds secret, but he would not say why Markit Group had such a policy. It seems worth knowing whether those hedge funds have any influence over Markit Group’s published information or indexes, and whether those hedge funds are trading on that information. It would also be worth knowing whether those hedge funds or affiliated hedge funds have engaged in short selling of public companies whose debt and stock prices were profoundly affected by the information that Markit Group published.
- Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), JP Morgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) and several other investment banks also have ownership stakes in Markit Group. The investment banks received their stakes in exchange for providing trading data to Markit Group. It would be worth knowing whether these investment banks engaged in short selling ahead of Markit Group’s published indexes and price quotations.
- Markit Group is secretive about how it creates its indexes. In early 2008, The Wall Street Journal noted that the CMBX simply “doesn’t make sense” and that Markit Group’s indexes “might be exaggerating the amount of distress” in the home and commercial mortgage markets. In 2008, the average prediction for defaults on commercial mortgages was 2%. The CMBX implied that the default rate could be four times that level.
- When short seller David Einhorn initiated his famous public attack on Lehman Brothers, one of his central arguments was that the CMBX (the index that was likely “exaggerating the amount of distress”) proved that Lehman had overvalued the commercial mortgages on its books.
- In March 2008, the Commercial Mortgage Securities Association sent a letter to Markit Group asking it disclose basic information about how the CMBX index is created and its daily trading volume. “The volatility in the CMBX index, caused by short sellers, distorts the true picture of the value of commercial-mortgage-backed securities,” the group said in a statement.
- Markit Group is equally secretive about how it derives its “prices” for credit default swaps. A spokesman for the company spent close to one hour talking to Deep Capture. He did his job well and sounded like he was trying to be helpful. But he told us as little as possible.
- However, in the course of this conversation, we did learn that Markit Group’s “prices” are not actual, traded prices. They are mere quotations. The Markit Group has what it calls “contributors” – hedge funds and broker-dealers that provide it with information. Markit Group has a grand total of 22 “contributors.” Deep Capture asked Markit Group’s spokesman for the names of these “contributors.” The spokesman said he would try to find out the names and call back later. He never called back.
- The 22 “contributors” provide Markit Group with quotations, and these quotations become the Markit Group’s “price.” In other words, the “contributors” can quote any price for a CDS that they choose, regardless of whether anyone is actually willing to buy the CDS at that price. Markit Group looks at these quotations. Then it somehow decides which quotations make the most sense. Then it publishes information that purports to represent the actual market price of that CDS. This process is certainly unscientific. And it is ripe for abuse.
- Consider, for example, the Markit Group “price” for CDSs insuring the debt of company X. The Markit Group price strongly suggests that company X is going to default on its debt in the immediate future. Short sellers eagerly point to the Markit Group CDS “price” as evidence that company X is doomed. Panic ensues, and suddenly, company X really is doomed. But the fact is, nobody ever bought a company X CDS at the price quoted by Markit Group. Rather, that panic-inducing “price” was, in effect, pulled out of a hat. Who pulled it out of a hat? That is matter of immense importance. There are two possible scenarios:
- The first possible scenario is that the 22 “contributors” report their quotations in good faith. They should be sending the actual traded price, not just a quotation, but assume they are just doing what was asked of them. From these quotations, Markit Group somehow decides what the “price” should be. It is possible that this decision is based on some secret formula (which would be worrisome); or it is possible that Markit Group executives sit around a table debating what the price should be and take a shot in the dark (which would be even more worrisome); or it is possible that Markit Group deliberately chooses the most horrifying price possible in order to assist the short sellers who are affiliated with its owners (which would be a matter for the authorities).
- The second possible scenario is that Markit Group acts in good faith (if not scientifically), but one or more of the 22 “contributors” or their affiliates has an interest in seeing company X fail. If just one of those “contributors” sends in an astronomically high quotation, that could be enough. Markit Group factors the absurd quotation into its posted “price” and it suddenly becomes possible to convince the world that company X is about to default on its debt. Panic ensues, the firm’s layer of debt dries up, the stock price plunges, and perhaps the “contributor” or its affiliate make a lot of money.
- As Deep Capture understands it, CDS quotations suggested by the 22 “contributors” also help determine the movement of the CMBX and ABX indexes. The movement of these indexes did serious damage to the American economy in multiple ways. The indexes prompted write downs at most of the major banks and mortgage companies. They were ammunition for short sellers, like David Einhorn, who claimed that companies had cooked their books by not writing down to the rock bottom prices suggested by the Markit Group indexes. They helped precipitate the decline in prices of mortgage securities, and contributed mightily to the panic that spread across the markets. A lot of people made a lot of money as result of those indexes moving downward. So, it is rather important to know more about how those indexes are formulated, and if they can be driven by the same people who are making directional bets on their movements.
Conclusion: Ten years ago, there was no such thing as a credit default swap. Six years ago, a very small number of investors traded credit default swaps as hedges against the long-shot possibility of corporate defaults. Nobody looked to credit default swaps as reliable indicators of corporate well-being.
Then, suddenly, there were over $60 trillion in credit default swaps outstanding. That is, over the course of a few years, somebody had made over $60 trillion (many times the gross domestic product) in long shot bets that borrowers would default on their debt. As this derivative risk marbled through the system, the trading in credit default swaps was completely opaque. Nobody knew who bought them, who sold them, or at what price.
...
These “prices” were not prices in any meaningful sense of the term. But, suddenly, these “prices” became perhaps the single most important indicator of corporate well-being. Assuming that those four hedge funds and the 22 “contributors” (or hedge funds affiliated with them) bet against public companies, it seems more than possible that short-sellers got to run the craps table, call the dice, and place bets, all at the same time.
So perhaps it is not surprising that a lot of long-shot rolls paid off quite nicely.
Bottom line: Jamie Dimon's "tempest in a teapot" just became a fully-formed, perfect storm which suddenly threatens his very position, and could potentially lead to billions more in losses for his firm.
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Holly cow! This is getting good.
Fuck you Bernanke!
Except with the fed they are downplaying the size of the balance sheet ...
But isn't fraud part of the banking game? (Sarcasm)
Documentary on Financial Fraud in Amerika:
http://www.planbeconomics.com/2012/05/01/pbs-documentary-financial-fraud/
imagine that, meanwhile many Mainstreet businesses can't get trickle down loans for working capital.
These FED banksters are sickening.
Next year will be 100 years of money cartel corruption.
articles like this are why ZH fucking rocks. you think you'll hear about this shit on CNBC or in NYTimes? maybe after a month or two. this banking system is fucked
Nice article, Tyler
I would like to think they give a damn and in good faith attempt to set a value for CDS, but I do not believe it. What this means is at best, we have a bunch of f*cksticks pulling numbers out of their asses and at worst, we have a cabal of outright criminals that have destroyed the lives of thousands (millions?) of people the world over so that they can add more imaginary wealth to what is already obscene. Well, my fellow Americans, they are all gathered right there together, consolidated for easy targeting. Send in the drones to get the clowns.
bring out the guillotine, bitchez!!!
I have this philosophical dilemma. Which is more evil? The squid or the morgue? Life is puzzling.
CDS and circus chicks...giant S P R E A D S , bitchezzz!!!
Everyone want's to be a Barry Minkow
I always wanted to be Bernie Cornfeld. I think it was the French chalet.
What a fucking great tag line. How do you top that?
Blythe Masters, JPM head of commodity manipulation, is famous for inventing the CDS - an opaque, ambiguous, arcane, cryptic, nebulous POS like herself.
She needs to be thrown in jail.
Whaaaaat Nope.....Throw their Chief Innovation officer in Jail? hah! Never. If they could, all of Wall Street will wave her warmly into her sunset.
While the Bruno IsDead story is fascnating at so many levels, the bottom line (and this IS the bottom line, fractally, across business, personal and every other aspect of our lives), the biggest problem business iin the world is INSURANCE.
The whole CDS game can be wrapped up neatly like this:
CASINO + Fraudulent Insurance = Disaster
Imagine if a casino started selling Loss insurance.
What would that do to their algos that make sure the house always wins? Imagine being able to walk into a casino and being able to Hedge your risk. What would that do to your betting patterns?
Easy enough to extrapolate. Ne?
Insurance companies are the root cause of the global financial mess. No way around that. Like all things, in it's hoary past, it might have made sense (probably did).
Now, it is the chief swindler of people because it works on Fear.
No wonder they are slowly making it mandatory...
Instead of tempering risk, it gave the world financial markets dis-temper. And now they are dying.
Is Bruno a Kill, or a Krill for the whale he once was?
Perhaps he will just be re-membered as...
More B Dick...
ori
the-great-machinery-death-cult-wake-up
Interesting point, and I agree. The 1987 crash was blamed on portfolio insurance. But how to explain the huge notional amount issued?
Re-re-re-re-re......re insurance?
ori
In order to Permanently Eliminate any and all Future Confusion, Opaqueness and Obfuscation, I'd like to hereby propose the Mitchum-Bridges Rule adding a new Permanent Level 4 to all Financial Statement Disclosure.
Legend has it that many years ago Jeff Bridges, most nervously attending his first Academy Awards Ceremony was offered some comforting advice by his seat mate, Robert Mitchum who whispered in his ear; "Just remember kid, it's all just bull shit anyway."
It's all just bull shit anyway.
- Level 4 Disclosure
It's really nice to see some details but the take home story is that JPM is manipulating the markets and cooking it's books to make obscene profits. Everyone raise their hands if this surprises you.
According to Barak (Barry) Obama Jamie Dimon is the smartest guy we have going!
Let's see what the smartest guy does next shall we!!!!!
Whoop to that!
I've got my knitting needles greased and ready to go.
.
LOL- sadly, it's not even that sophisticated- these tools were just fluffing the bid/ask, which can mean a lot when you're trading in 10 Jillion units......
It's something a pleeb trader wouldn't try, but I guess when your reputation- or better yet, your boss Jamie's reputation- is teflon, you're gonna give it a shot.
Dimon should be canned just for failing to keep an eye on his buddy for making such a grade-school move.....
"fluffing the bid"... you just made a Wall St. fluffer joke.
Good businesses that employ a lot of people are dying on the vine because the capital has been pissed away on banksters.
Occupation Records BITCHEZ!!!!!
Jamie Dimon is not worried. The stupid sheeple will gladly suck his micro dick and pay trillions to keep the criminal syndicate called JPM in business.
Ask a Joe on the street what "CDS" is, and he'll tell you it's the 0.5% paper his credit union gives him in exchange for his money getting locked up for a few months to a few years.
When nuclear weapons were invented, the 'sheeple' saw pictures of explosions and devastating effects. The sheeple could act (via voting, building bunkers, etc.) accordingly.
A decade after CDS hit OTC markets, the 'sheeple' are still oblivious to potentially devastating effects on their real economy. The problem with this new generation of weapons is that it remains largely invisible to the Real-Housewives-of-[ ]-tuned-out-Prozac'ed-out public.
I can't decide whether I'm in the fuck-'em-they-should-get-what-their-ignorance-deserves camp or the shine-light-in-public-policy-discussions-so-OTC derivatives-are-run-through-clearinghouses camp.
Like most table salt being iodized, why can't most $ be goldized?
All $$ can be goldMANized err zucked
Lol, if you ask the average American what "CDS" means, most would probably tell you it's a drug store chain (CVS being close enough to fire of a few brain cells) and feebly attempt to give you some general directions how to find the nearest branch...and those directions will be wrong too boot.
Exactly, and this applies not only to a Joe on the street, most politicians also have not understood what this business is about. And the very few people like the Tyler that wrote this great article also fall into thinking this is in any way "the way it is", witness: "At this point, Zero Hedge assumes that Iksil was merely abusing the little loophole used by every CDS trader since time immemorial...".
CDSs and all those new derivatives are not "immemorial". They were forbidden for three generations in the 20th Century.
They are the true "Ponzi Scheme". They are the true "Casino banking". They are not insurance and they are not sane.
BAN THEM before it get's worse.
Respectfully, I disagree about banning derivatives. It's my libertarian side coming through, I guess... But if two fund managers, prop desks, HNIs, etc. want to gang bang themselves into oblivion through leveraged directional bets, I say, "Let them." But let them gang bang in a walled environment, where the ripple effects don't permeate to the real economy.
Tyler, congrats. And Gringo, agree. We shall bail with certainty and bold confidence. We shall bail.
Re Jaime Dimon:
This "threatens his very position"? Oh yippee. The world will be such a better place when that lying, fatuous ass is gone.
I was pounding the table about this kind of crap occurring two weeks ago. On multiple posts I talked about the "creative" price discovery on Level 3 assets.
From 5-15-12. : These banks are able to obstruct price discovery on Level 3 assets which allows them to conceal losses. They book gains immediately as they occur, for obvious reasons, but delay reporting losses through the suspension of trading on certain Level 3 assets thereby manipulating price discovery which lets them hold back reporting of losses until they get too big.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/fbi-opens-inquiry-jpm-loss#comment-2427936
dont worry, the regulators will get right on that
Final Victory is in sight.
nah. all the porn sites are still up and running. the regulators won't do shit.
I know. Final Victory is WWII sarcasm.
To be clear, it s the fault of the regulators asleep at the switch. As opposed to last week when they were screamimg about too much regulation.
lol...and here we thought the silver short was going to be the sinker.
Very informative!
The US invented not only financial fraud but fraud period,
that's why the US bonds traded under costs 12/08 while shit was hitting fan long before he was buying them himself. Because of the US of Fraud.
Hard to believe they cheat and still lose.
But then again after reading posts around here, most would lose with tomorrow's paper so anything's possible.
But isn't fraud part of the banking game?
The banking system is built on fraud, from the ground up.
Surely a golden parachute is forthcoming in the bizzaro world we live in.
Right as usual SF. We'd rather jail a pastor for preaching corporal punishment than ever think about arresting a banker these days. The World has gone quite mad.
Didn't the fed just allow banks to put CDS on the federal balance sheet. So when the people come looking for their payments the fed will have to pay and not the banks.
Fire Dimon without compensation, just a kick in the nuts if he has any!
Jamie is a pussy name.
That's why he goes by Legs Dimon. He's a fucking crook.
Uh, hello?!
Jamie Lannister?!
Damn, nevermind.
It/s Jaime Lannister. Fuck that Demon guy!
Where there is smoke there is always a fire... or a bong party!
HEY BARRY!... CHOOM PARTY!
Right full rudder. Give me 20 degree down on the bow Jonesy.
This one's gonna be close !
...Playing chicken is about knowing when to flinch.
Jonesy was sonar, Watson was chief of the boat.
"Mr Tompson, call Cheif Watson to the com with his sidearm."
Bart Mancuso (Scott Glenn), best kick-ass sub captain I ever saw in a movie.
Oh, JPM's losses? Who gives a shit about them?
Hold on kiddies, it's gonna be one helluva blow!
Got Sig?
So these are the folks who took down the world......
Totally agree with you. Tyler is good.
Tyler , any way to make this top post ... "peg" it to the top for a week or so just to make sure everyone in NYC and DC sees it everyday...
Blankfein: There can be only one.
Tell it Gomer..... Surprise, Surprise Surprise
http://youtu.be/J6_1Pw1xm9U
Who didn't see this on coming?????????
Well at least one POOR guy is fast growing rich off these fucks:
Been short EUR/USD for nearly a month, as well as NZD/USD and AUD/USD. Scaled in for two weeks. ALL IN NOW. Do or die. Thanks Tyler. The incessant "gloom and doom" on Europe definitely encouraged me. I owe you buddy;:
HERE'S HOW YOU GET RICH OFF THIS SHIT PEOPLE
Sun, 05/06/2012 - 17:37 | 2401652 NewWorldOrange "It's going to be a very interesting summer."
Yes indeed it is. Perhaps even better than last summer (for currency traders.)
As for this evening, I think AUD/USD and/or NZD/USD are better shorts than EUR/USD. Always great "risk off" trades, especially on a Sunday evening after such a weekend. Whether the markets perceive increased volatility much in part due to the Europe elections, a decline in global markets, or are still just pricing in the Friday's jobs report, there is likely to be a flight to the "safety of the US dollar" (yeah, I know - LMAO too) and when that happens the Aussie and Kiwi usually take a real beating. Especially if commodities markets are trending down as they have been.
Shorted both and EUR/USD Friday afternoon. Just closed EUR/USD. Just added BIG to my already sizeable shorts on AUD/USD and NZD/USD. I'll either wake up with a huge profit or most of my earnings from the past two months wiped out. Because sometimes you just gotta' go for the gusto.
[UPDATE 5-30-12: I got back in EUR/USD shorts the next week...closed my AUD NZD shorts last week...still in the EUR/USD short and in fact just went all in on that with a target of 1.21...}
(I think I'm allowed to gloat a bit especially after the past few days, heh. I'M RICH BITCHES!)
Book it.
Here's hoping you keep it all and make much more in the future.
Don't forget to pay your taxes to the IRS....oops, I meant IMF....
nice play.
good timing, too.
and, yes, AUD especially -- commodity weakness will grind that fucker into dust. Only, along those lines, i'd maybe replace the NZD short with a CAD short...just thinkin out loud.
janus
Nice. Definitely a major long term bull market in the USD. Prechter nailed it. I went long the YCS - ultra short yen today as that country thanks in no small part to demographics & FuckUshimu will cease to exist.
Fuckin' A! Now that's what I'm talkin' about. A post I can do something with! UHh, what's a short?
Better make it fast... and get out of everything but physical PM's by August 1st.
Thanks for the additional encouragement folks;)
If anyone is interested in the mechanics of how it's done, I recommend www.fxcm.com (not affiliated with them but use them as one fx service.) You can sign up for a free demo w/ $50k in pretend money (you know. like most "money" these days.) Then start immediately. The mechanics are easy and it's fun to play with. You can figure it out in minutes. The HARD part is knowing what to buy or sell (short), when, controlling fear/greed, managing risk etc. But if you trade on fundamentals not technicals, for example, shorting EUR/USD as the Euro collapses, or shorthing AUD, NZD, or CAD as commodities are in bear markets (usually the case if the dollar is rising), or buy the dollar as the world flees to it's "relative safety" (LMAO)
Nothing ventured nothing gained. Good luck bitches!
(note to self...write a sequel to Fight Club...next phase...Tyler's army all get forex accounts...put all their cash in it...all simultaneously short the Euro...then another currency...until the dollar is bid to the moon...then they crash it too)
lol...but can they eat it?
No, but thousands of others have to work hard to earn the monies these parasites siphon off the system.
A system of debt as money and the multiples of insurance required to prop up that system.
My reference was to a debt based fiat system of suicidal acolytes who say "you can't eat gold"...as if they exchange wheat for cars or i-shit or whatever. Its the most ridiculous phrase I ever heard as they don't eat Ben Franklins either.
It was the mocking of stupidity.
If the system "pays you" in debt, exchange it for something real & tangible...and laugh at them while doing it.
Exactly. Wealth isn't the medium used for the transfer. Not fiat, not gold. You transfer such medium FOR wealth (or byproducts of...or waste it). BUT, as currencies fail, the real supply limited thing called precious metals are the fallback mechanism for humans throughout time as the means to access the wealth one needs to live, do business, whatever.
Wealth are the fruits of man's power over the universe to create what we need. In currency collapse precious metals allows one to keep their access open to what remains of mankind's once higher level of wealth creating power over the universe. Even if only temporary as eventually supply runs out. The hope may be to weather out the storm, but collapses can far outstrip this. No matter how much toilet paper can be stored somewhere by someone, eventually it runs out.
But tangible fiat isn't even the worst thing, digital fiat is. That currency will be the most subordinated in a collapse due to fraudulent debt and printing destroying those that keep tally of the digital fiat. Only tangible fiat won't disappear. But obviously there are risks that such fiat is replaced in the crises leading up to an overall big collapse with another currency, or outright diluted before a collapse due to printing.
It's also why creation of credit for producing wealth is not a problem. The lie that a private banker knows best is asinine. Public or private credit creation all can be corruptable, though with national credit creation, the public can have power over who has the reigns to control it and what it should be directed at. When it's based on actual scientific progression (not pseudo science) the decision making process is quite easy as better materials, machine tools, transportation efficiency, greater power, water, food, etc are all areas which are easily grounded when it revolves not around playing the banksters game, but actual progress.
Credit not created when a legitimate idea to overcome a problem exists is the fallacy of any monetarist system. It can happen because public credit was created for cronies or because private bankster debt was funneled for bankster bets. Or because none was allowed to be created at all. Solyndra was never about science and never about progression. It was a scam. No matter who scams, you have to prosecute the scammers, and any way you slice it, the scams can exist under any system. The abscence of allowing the creation can also be a type of a scam.
Just like precious metals have boundaries, science does as well. You can't fake science, just like you can't fake gold. But hey it's always possible to create pseudo science or tungsten bars. It shouldn't distract us from understanding that actual science, and actual precious metals are perfect examples of how to anchor an economic system around limits. One pushes the limits towards progression, while the other allows for more or less stability in how to account for it.
In absence of this when collapse occurs, the overall wealth pie is decreased, with the possibility of a complete breakdown it can go to almost nil, which is always why it's best to focus on preventing it, whether in time it currently is a problem (now) or not (decades gone by). Thus gold doesn't produce food just like fiat doesn't, but with gold or silver one can access the things (tools, farmland, fertilizer, labor, etc) necessary to produce or procure food, clothing, shelter, etc. Though tangible fiat should still have a place in such a world, provided it wasn't replaced, and the collapse occurred before we got to the wheelbarrow level. Obviously this is inferior to precious metals which is inferior to implementing a solution before or in the early stages of a collapse.
Since this is easy to understand, it doesn't take much energy to prepare, leaving the rest of the time open to prevention/correction. Because in a collapse EVERYONE is worse off. (a little thought experiment... Would you rather be king in 200 B.C. with tons of gold, or be a middle class person with today's technological level with cars/air conditioning/electricity/dentists-doctor's-emergency room/water/toilet paper/etc). A middle class person lives far better than a King of historical times because we have access to so much more wealth.
The question always is the setup of the transfer mechanism and how bad it has been fucked off and subsequently destroyed man's wealth creating ability to support the population. Computer fiat can be created in whatever numbers in a moment. Printing fiat is governed by a few more rules given you need paper, machines, which in today's uber bills is a lot more time consuming but still the numbers can change. Precious metals have to be discovered and mined at a slow pace making it a stable mechanism.
Thus prevention/correction of the problem and setup are always the key, and precious metals are always secondary. You may or may not win. You may win after a period of time things get pretty bad. Or things get far worse than that, and then you're glad you had a fallback in precious metals, though you have a better chance to survive, everyone's real life chances decrease, everyone lives a poorer lifestyle, and the masses without anything will have nothing to lose.
Glass-Steagall
Ahhh another Morgan Moment.......
It's being called JPM's $40Bn Mistake
http://www.forbes.com/sites/martinsosnoff/2012/05/30/jpmorgans-40-billio...
May well be an understatement.
i wonder why the rothchilds are consolidating things. maybe david is on his way up.
To heaven? I would have gone with down...
Because all the horses that were driving their hemonic world plan have completely slipped from their fingers. The horses are loose and running at top speed to the chagrin of the passengers now.
Imagine all those Civil servant pension plans and "savings" turning to ash. Then watch how fast the US government dives head first into private capital plans. Just like Europe is. Just like Japan does. Just like Canada and Australia are planning to do.
Got gold yet? Your governments hope you don't.
I wonder if they will be served up as a sacrificial lamb and which bank will buy them up at pennies on the dollar ala Lehman.
Or, dare I say it, nationalization?
Nationalization? That is the solution. Imagine if the Fed and JP Morgan were actually formally combined (instead of in the current, casual, de facto way). Then the implementation of Greenspan/Bernanke/Geithner policy (aka "helicopters dropping dollars on wall street, none on main street") could be even more efficient. We wouldn't need to pretend that American capital markets follow capitalist theory.
Yup. The banks are quasi-nationalized already (but we can't openly say so). They would be forced to shutter without legal and extra-legal protections from the Fed, Treasury and Justice Dept with approval of executive and legislative branches.
So let's go full retard: Nationalize 'em. Then put GM in charge of the banks to show'em how it's done
Bought puts on this piece of shit today. Boggles my mind that Jamie Dimon is still at the helm given the countless acts of gross negligence and fraud that have been perpetrated under his watch.
The fraud has become systemic by now.
They should just take both sides of the tradeand mark the bid and offer spread and bonus money to infinity.
Down goes Jamie, down goes Jamie
of course his island oasis awaits this is what he wants, out, maybe a few questions from congress before he follows the others.....
Jamie goes down and takes it all with him. Or in other words, Jamie goes down, we all go down.
http://www.sanders.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/101911%20-%20THE%20SANDERS%2...
Dimon is a modern day financial suicide bomber, he's got financial armageddon strapped to his body.
Obama ben Dimon
I remember buying 200 shares of JPM 4 yrs ago with the rationale that it was the largest bank in the USA, and that the largest bank would not go under. Never sold those shares. Still hoping that the rationale is sound.
Hopium.
Lok there..... In the corner of your eye. Don't turn around.
i'd sell those shares and buy 200 silver eagles if i were you.
Bank Run!!!-------
Run from Banks, if properly prepared...
Bank! Run!
It seems like a good day.
But I feel weird.
It's all so big, so coupled.
Am I a counterparty here or something?
Do you pay taxes? If so, you're the counterparty where risk is concerned.
Honest mistake.....could happen to anyone.........
MDB? :p
Though it's already been said many times in many ways, I'd like to personally thank The Tylers for their continued service of exposing the "reality" of how TPTB attempt to control the world. I can't pretend to understand things like they do yet, but ZeroHedge has forced me to extend my attention span and work to come to grips with the situation for myself.
None of us can save anybody without first obtaining the ability to save ourselves.
The first step in helping the poor is to make sure you do not become one of them.
I am also filled with gratitude toward these guys and their amazing powers of discernment. Heroes. The world is not all bad.
A-fucking-men and ... Welcome to fight club.
Donate, bitchez!
My sentiments exactly.
Ah, this brings back memories of grade school, when the nuns would often allow students to grade their work under the 'honor system'. Of course, this worked solely because the nuns had paddles, as well as 20/15 vision. What, pray tell, does Jamie have ?
Jamie has his Bennie
Bernanke, or Benzedrine ? (Each, in their own way, can be quite stimulating ... )
MarkIt. Sounds a lot snappier than GradeYourOwnHomework.
Will they be "bailed out"? Will they get the "Corzine treatment?
Urzizmine,
Obama and Co. recently decided that the U.S. taxpayer should be on the hook for any fallout from derivatives. If these people continue on their current path, they are going to run out of hiding places.
Not to worry. Bernanke is making profits and sending them to Geithner all the time!
O/T but check out this chart!. I was watching the the ( DXY) stay flat! aud bond flows!
I wonder if Bruno know the most efficient to effective way to resolve the situation to almost everyones (except his own) satisfaction?
He'll have to use fear, surprise, ruthess efficiency and a fanatical devotion to the Pope. No. Hang on a second...fear, surprise, and a financial weapon... Just a minute. One more time: fear, surprise, and....
Bugger it. Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition!
Standard international suicide package for him at some time in the future along with some upgrades to make sure there are no stashes of incriminating paperwork.
The amazing part will be his stamina and resolve to die, with 2 self inflicted shots to the back of the head while simultaneously hanging himself naked with hands tied behind his back and feet bound. Fingernails on left hand pulled, abdominal contusions from rubber hose, recent unfinished poor quality dental work and electrode burns on genitals. Deduced as attempts of atonement from crack agents at Scotland Yard struggling with cash flow issues, as NotW is no longer in business. In a nod to his detail orientated profession, not a single fingerprint of his is found at the scene, on his bindings or his body.
They couldn't check the gun, as there wasn't one at the scene.... He was incredibly clever and some questions in this suicide will go unanswered.
...“that’s why you have a centralized accounting group that’s comparing marks” between different parts of the bank “to make sure you don’t have any outliers,” said the former chief financial officer of ____(any Wall Street company name here).
A Central Lies Accounting Group is what makes it happen ! Welcome to the wonderful world of Corzine, Dodds & Franks.
Who's gonna bail me out? BITCHEZ
...bail you out? Don't you hear the voice on the Intercom, telling you to go back into the building?
...there's a Spiderman towel in there. Really... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GHFoUZEjuNM&feature=results_main&playnext=1&list=PLC756B3A798359C3A
Trade all of that toilet paper fiat in for silver or gold. When the time comes, you won't need a bailout. Better get some steel and wood, copper, lead and brass too.
If just once the people in charge of investigating and prosecuting would keep going. Instead they see the thread of illegality, give it a little tug. Then they see that it is wound through the whole thing. If they keep pulling the whole damn thing unravels and they are horrified to contemplate the results. If you really think about it, who the hell has the guts to be the one who will be remembered for unravelling the whole financial system into a pile of nothing? Who would actually think they could get away with trying to even start it? I think it might not even be the inbed together, revolving door connections and all that. If I were working at a regulatory agency I think I might see my chances of attacking this beast to be a remake of the very short animated feature of Godzilla versus Bambi. I might be honest but would I be suicidal on multiple levels?
Doling out minor fines that fit into the cost benefit analysis, without admission of guilt is a finger in the dike. But at least you can survive losing a finger or two.
Those cocksuckers need to go DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOWN!!!
...short selling deep capture is a matter for the ''authorities'' watching porn? Are these the same ''authorities'' that left out building Seven in the 911 ''Offical Report'' and the 1990's trillion dollar naked JP Morgan Shorts harbingered in World Trade Center One Cantor Fitzgerald ...and just gave a blank check to Israel? http://www.policymic.com/articles/8919/ron-paul-dissents-on-house-bill-for-unlimited-military-aid-for-israel-shows-why-he-s-a-true-leader/latest_articles
Mark of the Beast Market Maker's Chairsatan Brooksley Born aborted decidied to ''pull'' an American Insurance Group Hank Greenberg for a Larry Summers Silverstein time to short term a go go global gain game of ''thrones no jobs'' debt defense? How counter intelligent, but it pays well
...IN HELL!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GbC_571dksE
It must be time for, the next phase; the Iran A Scam Nobel Peace Prize, for Nuclear NonProLIFEration Flying PIIGS One Too Many Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest Tea Plunge Protection Vote 2 Party Dial 666 ADD Debt Pardon Me Earth IS A Suicide Vampire Squid Drag Queen Bride of the Great Wal Mart of China ...bring on the mark of the beast sealing nuclear aftermath, prophetic peace plan ...bitchez. http://www.wnd.com/2012/05/biblical-prophecy-descends-on-state-capitol/
...2012 ODIGO Message Board Elevator Muzak http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=udBf_u_pYVU
I was loaned the Harbinger, and listened to part of it. The problem is that this rabbi bases his whole "America is being judged" theory (of course linking us to Israel once again) on the OUTRIGHT LIE that 19 Arab hijackers spontaneously pulled off the highly complex attacks of 9/11, even managing to level a building (7) that wasn't hit! I turned it off shortly thereafter.
This guy is peddling to Christians who have been propagandized by the Zionist movement.
To get a better idea why America is experiencing the horrors it is since 9/11, and to better understand 9/11 itself, I would suggest watching another video instead:
911missinglinks.com
America experiencing horrors?
Puppies for mullah, turn on the TV, pop goes the Islam says Assad.
Have a link for missing Syrian children?
Aslam Alekem
For the record, I am a Christian. And I see you have succumbed to all things Tavistock-spun.
I prefer NOT to turn on the mind-control box. You should do yourself a favor and yank the plug out of the wall ASAP.
Or maybe you are a Zionist?
...throw away the message because of blindness, weakness etc... and fear? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discernment Shall we enter upon throwing away The Treasure and be known by the Host of Mercy? Is that the key for The Door? Lol. Shall we not give the call to discover more Treasure?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Go7zzjB-t1w
This is all very good news! But what I would really like to see is a mistake that threatens JPM itself, not just the CEO.
The Hydra can always grow another head.
I think that's the point. This does.
Time will tell.
well, goodbye JPM.
this is exactly what i suspected, but i hadn't any evidence -- except for the duration of the delays, something only a MARKiT manipulator could pull off.
this is just beyond incredible...the word 'criminal' doesn't seem to cut it.
yes, Tyler, losses are easily over the 31 billion-stock-buy-back threshold...this is fucking epic.
all our bold talk about JPM notwithstanding, i never fathomed such foolishness on their behalf.
i sort of suspected that this JPM fiasco would be the catalyst for the horrors to come; and the proof has arrived.
good night, JPM...now, enter the sandman:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uY3LAFJbKyY
we're coming, bitchez; and we're bringing HELL with us.
be afraid money-masters; be VERY afraid.
and behold, a pale horse,
janus
This will be systemic because it is the same psychopathic, narcissistic culture in the TBTF. Don't think Dimon is unique. This is a self-selecting process so clones are in place in companies of similar position.
Prepare accordingly.
Jamie Dimon has really done nothing but cause havoc at Chase.
“Jamie Dimon's "tempest in a teapot" just became a fully-formed, perfect storm which suddenly threatens his very position, and could potentially lead to billions more in losses for his firm.”
Could not happen to a more deserving man or bank.
They are just following JCAAP (Jon Corzine Accepted Accounting Principles), what's the problem?
BMAAP is also acceptable.
Unregulated otc derivatives - those 'weapons of mass financial destruction' (Buffett); those 'assassin contracts' (Soros).
JP Morgue by name and nature will bury more than its secrets. Is this why Obama et al have recently committed the U.S. taxpayer to backstop derivatives?
Stop the looting. Start the prosecuting. The gangsta bankstas and their political pets are out of control, and quite possibly out of their minds; corporate psychopaths.
"The use of a growing array of derivatives and the related application of more-sophisticated approaches to measuring and managing risk are key factors underpinning the greater resilience of our largest financial institutions ..." Alan Greenspan May 2005
Amish,
The end of the Glass-Steagall Act opened up the opportunity for new and improved ways to misbehave - or commit outright fraud, as we have seen since with numerous tricks, including unregulated otc derivatives morphing from humble hedging into a global wrecking ball.
broken record or not, jpm is the most important story since lehman.....jpm's problems are not chiefly in ig-x....they are in irswaps....i guarantee you that this perfect storm will morph into category 5 hurricane.
It goes to 6
It damn well better.
I am smiling inside
Wow - this is a helluva story. Thanks for the thorough reporting.
Props to ZH and Tyler D. for this one. I'll be looking at MarkIt a bit more closely now.
There is a HUGE currency vaccuum somewhere? Are Central banks trading/speculating against commodity currencies/ SWAPS?
Example; Fed swaps $550b to BIS on 90 day payback. 50 basis points plus costs. Current exchange rate eur/usd 1.3358. 3 month terms.
Who says both sides cant swap against each other? One currency is falling in value (eur).
Both parties have agreed to re/swap after 90 days @ the same exchange rate.
The BIS lends the 90 day spread (eur/usd @ 1.3358), on a predetermined SWAP rate to Greece!
Cross collateralization at it's best!
Isn't this exactly what happened to Michael Berry in The Big Short during 2007? The marks in the CDS market were bullshit then too
Indexes on CDSs? How much more removed from the real economy can you get? These guys are nuts,
Bye, bye Jamie. You deserve your fate.
@Ned Zeppelin
LOL. Fourth derivative. Like a guy who keeps drinking his own urine everyday. Look out for the eventual gall stones.
Looks like they should change the name to YOUMarkIt.
This might be interesting if anyone can still get a ticket;
http://www.markit.com/en/about/registrations/outlook-for-otc-markets-newyork-registration.page
Are there "any" rules or laws concerning banks, bookkeeoing and accounting anymore?
(you can down arrow me, now)
The properly unregulated market is self-policing and self-correcting.