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The Second Foreclosure Tsunami Is Coming, And Is About To Kill Any Hopes Of A "Housing Bottom"

Tyler Durden's picture





 

In what appears to be surprising news for some, Reuters has an article titled "Americans brace for next foreclosure wave" whose key premise is that "a painful part two of the [housing] slump looks set to unfold: Many more U.S. homeowners face the prospect of losing their homes this year as banks pick up the pace of foreclosures." Thank the robosettlement, where in exchange for a few wrist slaps, contract law was thoroughly trampled by America's attorneys general, but far more importantly to the country's crony capitalist system, the foreclosure pipeline was once again unclogged, and whether one does or does not have a legal title on a given house, the banks are now fully in their right to foreclose on it. What this means also is that America's record shadow housing inventory, which is far greater than any fabricated number the NAR reports on a monthly basis, is about to get unleashed on buyers, shifting the supply curve much further to the right, as up to 9 million new properties slowly but surely appear on the market. And while many will no longer be able to live mortgage free, forcing them to go out and rent (and no longer be able to afford incremental iGizmos), it also means that the prevalent price of homes is about to take another major tumble, making buffoons out of all those who, once again, called for a housing bottom in early 2012. Here's the simply math: there will be no housing bottom until the 9 million excess homes clear. Period. Until then it is a buyer's market, even if said buyer is unable to obtain bank financing, as ultimately it will be the seller who is forced to monetize (or vacate if underwater) their home in a world of ever diminishing cashflows. The fear of the supply onslaught will only make the dumpage that much faster.

As a reminder, this is what America's recover shadow inventory looked like recently (read more here):

For those curious how much more foreclosed properties are about to hit the market, we have the answer. Courtesy of RealtyTrac we know how many homes were foreclosed upon in the period until November 2010, when robosigning became a prevalent, if short-lived issue, or roughly 330,000 a month. In the aftermath, this average has dropped to 227,000 a month: a roughly 100,000 difference in less foreclosures each month! Which means that in the deferred amount of foreclosures, over and above the already endogenous deterioration in home prices and declining household income, means that there is at least 1.6 million in homes that are just waiting for a green light to be foreclosed upon, sending shadow inventory in the double digit millions, and unleashing a selling wave unlike any seen before. Behold the deffered foreclosures in all their glory:

Translation: Just like John Paulson lost billions on his massively wrong way bets that housing would soar (ironically, after getting the move lower correct), so Goldman's recent bet that properties will rebound is about to cost the firm dearly.

Because at the end of the day, it is all about supply and demand, or, said otherwise, money.

Reuters explains further:

"We are right back where we were two years ago. I would put money on 2012 being a bigger year for foreclosures than 2010," said Mark Seifert, executive director of Empowering & Strengthening Ohio's People (ESOP), a counseling group with 10 offices in Ohio.

 

"Last year was an anomaly, and not in a good way," he said.

 

In 2011, the "robo-signing" scandal, in which foreclosure documents were signed without properly reviewing individual cases, prompted banks to hold back on new foreclosures pending a settlement.

 

Five major banks eventually struck that settlement with 49 U.S. states in February. Signs are growing the pace of foreclosures is picking up again, something housing experts predict will again weigh on home prices before any sustained recovery can occur.

 

Mortgage servicing provider Lender Processing Services reported in early March that U.S. foreclosure starts jumped 28 percent in January.

Well, no. LPS which is going through legal troubles of its own, unfortunately, is very much, less than credible. For the only real source on foreclosure data, we go to RealtyTrac, where we find that February foreclosures hit 206,900, the second lowest in many years, and higher only than December 2011's period low 205,000 (see chart above). But while there is no need to fabricate data, foreclosures will eventually come, as banks, first slowly, then very, very fast, start sending out foreclosure notices. What happens next will be entire neighborhoods with "Foreclosure" signs in front of the houses, doing miracles to prevailing home prices.

A January report by the Neighborhood Economic Development Advocacy Project in New York found that in the first half of 2011 the number of 90-day pre-foreclosure notices in New York City outnumbered court foreclosure actions by a ratio of 14 to one, indicating that while proceedings were initiated against many homeowners, they were left incomplete.

 

"Now the banks have a settlement, foreclosure numbers for 2012 are going to be high," said NEDAP co-director Josh Zinner.

 

A recent survey by the California Reinvestment Coalition, an umbrella group of nearly 300 non-profit groups in the state, of member agencies found 75 percent of respondents expected increased demand for their foreclosure prevention services in 2012 but more than a third had to scale back services because of funding cuts.

 

"Funding is a major concern given what our members expect for this year," said associate director Kevin Stein.

Needless to say, the return of reality, i.e., when one actually has to pay for living somewhere, instead of living 5 years without making a mortgage payment like the Ritters, means a return of ever louder calls for socialist debt principal reduction. What is odd is that nobody seems to care: certainly not the millions of other hard working Americans who would end up footing the bill.

All this has non-profits intensifying calls for the Federal Housing Finance Agency to drop its opposition to allowing the government-backed mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac it regulates to reduce principal for underwater homeowners.

 

Principal reduction involves reducing the amount borrowers owe in order to make a loan modification affordable for struggling homeowners. Republicans and the FHFA oppose principal reduction because of the risk of "moral hazard"- that homeowners who do not need help will seek to abuse largesse and have their mortgages reduced too.

 

"Until banks engage in meaningful principal reduction as a matter of course," ESOP's Seifert said after a recent protest at a Chase branch in Cleveland, "this crisis will not end."

Well then it won't. Because since every bank asset is another bank's liability, unless the government pulls a GSE, and funds the wholesale mortgage reduction (call it the "final solution" of ubiquitous and unquestioned socialism), banks will not do this. And while this next bank bailout is only years (at most) away, in the meantime we will see banks do just what they always do: foreclose once again, and release the pent up vacant homes into the market. Which for anyone who has taken Econ 101 means prices are about to take yet another dive lower, and the entire housing recovery plan can be scrapped. As to what it means for the Fed's plans for future easing, well... we believe our readers are smart enough to figure this out on their own.

 


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Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:06 | Link to Comment Mercury
Mercury's picture

Oh boy, and here comes a dragon for Obama to slay on the way to November 2nd.

Makeup!  Ready on the set!

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:07 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

What will he call it? Cash for Jewish Lightning? 15 million burned out houses later and we got a housing shortage.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:11 | Link to Comment Mercury
Mercury's picture

Hmmmm...like the Clinton era church arson "epidemic". Excellent. Many ways for a savy politician to win there.

It's actually November 6th BTW.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:44 | Link to Comment wisefool
wisefool's picture

Wow. What a blast fromthe past! Let me see if I remember that story right. Rickety old churches, often deep in debt, little to no attendance. burn in hate crimes. News coverage, insurance payouts, donations from around the country to right the wrongs.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:25 | Link to Comment Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

I'm not advocating anything here but...
If you own a home that's underwater and you have an insurance on it, wouldn't it make more sense to burn it the fuck down and get your claims on? Again, i'm not advocating anything. Just, you know, shootin' the shit as they say.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:28 | Link to Comment economics9698
economics9698's picture

Oh fuck now new car sales will drop when these freeloaders have to pay rent.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 23:22 | Link to Comment FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

For some the car payment will be their rent payment, too. 

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 02:45 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Some big lie is coming, so no one will notice.

I mean, robo-signing? Linda Green? Where did all that go? The housing bubble was (ongoing) the biggest ever next to the Bond bubble (very much ongoing).

These guys are brilliant at perception management, you have to give them that. Just plain brilliant.

ori

/police-state-descends-on-america-things-get-nutty-in-india/

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 05:22 | Link to Comment The Navigator
The Navigator's picture

BRING IT ON - the sooner it hits, the sooner we get outta this shit hole.

We've been postponing this since before Obama got elected - forget the blame, all in government were co-consirators - if we're ever going to get out of this hole, the truth got to be admitted and we build from ground zero.

Nobody's going to buy or build real estate with prices and mortgages based on BS.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 10:20 | Link to Comment Red Raspberry
Red Raspberry's picture

I say so too.  My tax assessment will go down.  In three years that is.  And the taxes will go up to accomidate.

 

Another plan foiled......

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 08:56 | Link to Comment csmith
csmith's picture

For the banksters, the Robo signing "scandal" was a Godsend, because it permitted a 15 month break in the foreclosure grind, extended the pretending, and ended with a minor slap on the wrist! Now they have to get back to the real work of writing down assets and can no longer hide the crap on their balance sheets. And if the FHA permits FNM and FRE to take losses on principal on first mortgages, that means $1 trillion in HELOCs (which happen to be the BEST performing assets the banks have) need to be ZEROED OUT! Bad stuff coming...

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 08:35 | Link to Comment gloogle
gloogle's picture

MOBILE HOMES, BITCHEZ!!!

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 00:05 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

oh shit you moronic shit.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 00:45 | Link to Comment Michael
Michael's picture

"The Second Foreclosure Tsunami Is Coming", authors now using my terminology to describe the situation, as I have said it in this way a hundred times in the past, I'm flattered.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 01:02 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

yeah but did you engrave it in your swastika? 

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 02:14 | Link to Comment Michael
Michael's picture

They just opened up the second tsunami wave on the Mc Mansions, The Garage Mahals, Faux Chateaus, Starter Castles, Hummer Homes, jumbos, prime, the nice stuff. They want it all. 

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 02:46 | Link to Comment The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

 

This second tsunami will hit us like our first title wave.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 03:44 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Gots to love a good wit. Classic!

ori

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 01:19 | Link to Comment Madrid2020
Madrid2020's picture

BINGO,BIG TIME!

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:30 | Link to Comment wisefool
wisefool's picture

The only thing I can advocate is non-violence. If a person thinks through all contingencies to ensure no harm to anyone else I would not judge, but remember there are alot of people who are clinically retarded and you must make sure they can not possibly get hurt.

any/all sarc aside. nobody should get hurt, ever. over a house or other financial matter.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:48 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

do something original. something..."challenging". try this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mS6OxiFIyeE&feature=player_detailpage

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 23:44 | Link to Comment rocker
rocker's picture

Don't Cops go after bank robbers with pure force.  I remember driving through Hershey Pa down the main street looking down the barrel of a shotgun which all drivers before and after I did.  He stood in the middle of the road with back-up on the sides.  When I asked what the hell that was about, I was told somebody robbed a savings and loan bank in Hershey. That was NOT sweet. So, who draws the line?  Surely, not you.   Just sayin'.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 23:51 | Link to Comment wisefool
wisefool's picture

Right. I try to do the "judge not less you be judged" thing. I don't draw the line, except at violence. not enough time for nonsense like that, even if it wasn't repugnant to me.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 00:52 | Link to Comment Real Money Wins
Real Money Wins's picture

"If you will not fight for the right when you can easily win without bloodshed; if you will not fight when your victory will be sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a small chance of survival. There may even be a worse case: you may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves."
  --  Winston Churchill

 

If you are reading this YOU are the Resistance!!!

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 00:09 | Link to Comment zebrasquid
zebrasquid's picture

Burning down your house doesn't relieve you from your mortgage debt.   

Lots of trouble and risk for no good purpose...if you're underwater and your house has a purchase money first mortgage on it (in many states, including CA) - just walk away.  They can't come after you for the deficiency (the difference between what it sells for at auction and what you owed).  You take a credit ding, and all is forgotten in a couple years -- after all, you had to walk away due to the nationwide housing crash causing your situation, not something you created. You're not a deadbeat, you were one of tens of millions of victims.

Trouble is, many places it's getting so it cost more to rent a replacement house than to continue your mortgage payments on your old one...even if your equity is all gone.

Sat, 04/07/2012 - 20:54 | Link to Comment ViewfromUnderth...
ViewfromUndertheBridge's picture

Trouble is, many places it's getting so it cost more to rent a replacement house than to continue your mortgage payments on your old one...even if your equity is all gone.

That is called a housing recovery...


Thu, 04/05/2012 - 08:17 | Link to Comment sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

 

tarsubil       2318141

What will he call it? Cash for Jewish Lightning? 15 million burned out houses later and we got a housing shortage.

 

Comment:

Naw, they like to use nifty acronyms that turn into words you can say. For example they used HARP=Home Affordability Refinance Program.

I suggest FARCE = Free Asset Refinancing Created Earmark.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:00 | Link to Comment mr. mirbach
mr. mirbach's picture

He'd better have a double edged sword!!!  Analysts expect 2012 to be a record-setting year for commercial real estate defaults  http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57381408/banks-face-crisis-in-bungled-commercial-mortgages/

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:05 | Link to Comment PC Load Letter
PC Load Letter's picture

Don't forget the student loan time bomb.....two dragons to kill before November 2nd. He can't lose the support of all those college kids too

And can ZH take the Joker....err......I mean Michelle Obama's face off the site? Makes it tough to read

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:19 | Link to Comment wisefool
wisefool's picture

It is targeted advertizing. Kinda like the scene in ghost busters "Chose your destroyer" I actually dropped cable and cnbc over a year ago, but Jim Cramer and his tax free charity trurst in gold are back on both my ZH and OTA channels. Also some ads for this timmay guy on a cartoon called southpark.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:24 | Link to Comment Woodyg
Woodyg's picture

Don't worry - the only dragon Obummer will kill is We the Peole.

The Oilybomber doesn't give a shit about anything but his bankster buddies and his after office $250,000 speeches.

And in my small town - there are a few hundred foreclosed houses sitting vacant - NOtpT coming on the market.

And what of the news the banksters are setting up property mgmt corps - and buying the houses En Masse - of course for a nickle on the dollar -

These SOB banksters won't even sell the damn vacant houses.

They'll pawn them off to their buddies on the cheap - take a loss - get bailed out - and use the illicit funds to buy up the vacant homes - then raise the rent on us!

Where's my guy? The Rents Too Damn High?

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 00:48 | Link to Comment Shazam342
Shazam342's picture

If one's recent degree is not helping said student get a job, he/she should be allowed to default on it. Professors and academic departments in universities/coleges do lie/exaggerate about the job opportunities available to students who put up with the student loan.  They should be treated just like a fly-by-night tech schools that promise placement for students, but come up short deliberately after the students go through 'training'

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 01:25 | Link to Comment UnderDeGun
UnderDeGun's picture

Horse shit. X10

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 01:21 | Link to Comment Madrid2020
Madrid2020's picture

SHE BE OUR QUEEN!

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 02:32 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

Use Mozila Firefox plus the "NoScript" add-on for it = no more arseholes in adds.

http://www.mozilla.org/en-US/

http://noscript.net/getit

I recommend getting the freeware version of Ad-Aware as well, it has a real-time pluggin module for Firefox which seems to cull almost all adds.

http://www.lavasoft.com/products/ad_aware_free.php

 

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 23:31 | Link to Comment CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

I'm pretty cheap but I'm thinking Barry will cough up $500 Billion of OPM to bail this pile. It could be more...but I'm a Cheap Bastard.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 00:16 | Link to Comment TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

He'll cough up a lot more than that. Whatever it takes to keep the music going will do. Once the music stops, the entire fiat ponzi collapses and Barry doesn't get to drive the candy truck any more because there won't be any candy to hand out.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 00:10 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

this is good theatre...let's just hope it snowballs with rising gas prices and SP at 800 in next week or so. Europe tanks tonight.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 01:11 | Link to Comment One World Mafia
One World Mafia's picture

I guess it's no accident the establishment is letting the candidate who is billed as an economic genius (more like stock scammer by what Ted Kennedy dug up in the '90s while Mitt was still at Bain) win the GOP primary.

http://spectator.org/blog/2012/01/13/romney-corporate-welfare-bum

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 01:31 | Link to Comment UnderDeGun
UnderDeGun's picture

Using Ted Kennedy as a source on moral wrongdoing is like using an arsonist as a source for intentionally set fires data.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 07:54 | Link to Comment j0nx
j0nx's picture

Indeed. But even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 01:17 | Link to Comment Madrid2020
Madrid2020's picture

A wait to all those "free loaders" who have not been paying their mortgages and thus "stimulating" the economy have to go and find places to rent.And  instead of stimulating have to return to the real world.

The anti-stimulus is about to begin!

 

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:05 | Link to Comment wisefool
wisefool's picture

No point in spending any money on a home worth less than $1,000,000. Lots of old people like me are going to be giving them away soon. forclosure or otherwise.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 00:48 | Link to Comment francis_the_won...
francis_the_wonder_hamster's picture

And no chance of getting financed on anything over the "conforming" level......

 

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:07 | Link to Comment navy62802
navy62802's picture

People are acting like this is some sort of new revelation. It isn't. Another shoe that is going to eventually drop is interest rates which must rise again at some point.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:18 | Link to Comment kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Interest rates can't rise... that's "Game Over".  It's game over anyway in our Schrodinger's Cat existence... but interest rates rising forces the issue. 

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 00:11 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

negative interest rates and negative bond yeilds forever until forever crashes in the near future.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:08 | Link to Comment hyper-critical
hyper-critical's picture

There are a number of things that Tyler and zhedge have just been shockingly ahead of the curve on and right about.

This is one of them.

Been waiting for this moment for months now...put on your August hats, because it's time to extract some serious fiat from the system.

 

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:43 | Link to Comment Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Tyler/ZH  have been spot on, sometimes too ahead of the curve.  Perfect timing to pull the trggr is up to the individual in the trenches.  Extracting some fiat from the system sounds good to me, especially during the election cycle hype.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 23:34 | Link to Comment greensnacks
greensnacks's picture

There will be no housing bottom until the 9 million excess homes clear.

Well, there are those 9 million houses, but what about the next wave of foreclosures when Washington decides it cannot continue to run trillion+ deficits and starts writing pink slips to those public sector workers and reduce their private sector spending? 

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:09 | Link to Comment vmromk
vmromk's picture

Nothing that the #1 printing COCKSUCKER Bernanke couldn't fix with a fully equipped printing press.

Bernanke, your day is coming.

 

 

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:18 | Link to Comment Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

The middle class would need money to fix this. This is fucked.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:19 | Link to Comment Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

They're giving away money at low interest but no one qualifies.  It's only fair we get subprime loans to stimulate the middle class again.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:08 | Link to Comment blindman
blindman's picture

the "consumer" is out of equity, credit and employment.
hmmm? i know, bailout the banks again ! that should fix it.
print some and radically refinance the speculative portion of
the financial sector, if that doesn't work i just give up.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:10 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

where in exchange for a few wrist slaps, contract law was thoroughly trampled by America's attorney general,

What do we expect, he was hand picked by THE BEST.

The rule of law applies to NO ONE except we peons. If your a part of the THUGS,INC crew.................home free.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:31 | Link to Comment wisefool
wisefool's picture

As mentioned by others, it is going to come down to: will you keep ocupancy standards, HOA covenants and property taxes up ..... free house.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:07 | Link to Comment sosoome
sosoome's picture

...attorneys general.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:14 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Am I missing something or was the article void of any reference to civil suits and foreclosure defenses by the homeowners?  The robosettlement was only a portion of all of the things that need to get fixed before voluntary foreclosures have a decent shot at picking up...  (and even it only settled specific issues). 

The other issue is incentive...  just like deadbeat homeowners have incentive to not pay their mortgages when the banks can't foreclose, the banks have incentive to not foreclose so as to not be required to recognize their donkey losses...  (somehow still being in shitty financial condition despite hitting homerun after homerun on cds, probably covering the same house that is being foreclosed).

I've said it dozens of times on here...  but the natural cleaning mechanism for all of this is about to take hold...  and the counties and states that will exact justice (tax man style) are hurting for revenues.  Those states that are not completely dependent on federal monies (heh, admittedly few) are going to woodshed and banjo boy the fuck out of the banks.

In short, I don't buy any potential increase in voluntary foreclosures by banks...

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:20 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I thought these banks were choosing not to foreclose and instead choosing to rent. I also thought vultures were swooping in in droves to pick up whatever they can find to rent them out as well.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:50 | Link to Comment riphowardkatz
riphowardkatz's picture

in states where they can that is happening. In addition there are land banks buying up lots of stuff, demoing some and rehabing others.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:57 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

Well if they had not given anyone a mortgage starting about 2006 - then we would have had a normal cleaning out.  A crash, foreclosures and vultures.  Obama has dragged it out and only made it worse.   Can ZH and the Tylers try to reduce the Oba banner ads.  I am sick of looking at his horrible wife every second.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:13 | Link to Comment Acorn10012
Acorn10012's picture

I'm only here for the Sugar Daddy girls and Sheriff Joe opening a can of whupass on scumbags.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 23:32 | Link to Comment wisefool
wisefool's picture

I wonder if the russian brides realize that the west is headed for far worse in terms of general husbandry than why they would be leaving behind.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 06:59 | Link to Comment Husk-Erzulie
Husk-Erzulie's picture

Run Firefox mate.  I am always amazed when I open up ZH on someone elses box.  It looks completely different with all those ads.  Stable, standards compliant browsers are good in other ways besides just pop up and ad blocking anyway.  Plus, you know, open source and all that.

Oh, and OT sorta but just for shits and giggles.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:46 | Link to Comment soccerballtux
soccerballtux's picture

"the natural cleaning mechanism for all of this is about to take hold"

what mechanism is that? mark to market accounting has been suspended. The banks have no incentive to do anything to anybody.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 23:48 | Link to Comment greensnacks
greensnacks's picture

Fire may be the only real mechanism. There were plenty of houses on the market for purchase and investment in early 2000. Then millions more were built for people who couldn't afford them. So won't there be excess supply on the market for the foreseeable future?

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:42 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

tax sale.  In short, shadow inventory has a holding cost...  and there is a large bill due...  after all, if I presently have liquidity and capital reserve problems, then I don't want to throw good money after bad...  (of course, what they fail to acknowledge is that they have a duty to mitigate their damages...  of which, letting properties lie dormant and significantly deteriorate is not an example). 

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 08:13 | Link to Comment chubbar
chubbar's picture

I had the impression that one of the major sticking points was the separation of the Promissory Note from the Mortgage during the MBS phase.  Robo signing settlement didn't fix that either.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:38 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

well, that can be fixed by an initial set of putbacks...  the bigger issue is that the ENTIRE CHAIN of assignment is likely botched...  meaning, from inception, some aspects of the assignments were legally insufficient to actually transfer an interest.  The MBS phase is only a portion of the mess with the chain of assignment... 

[I ultimately think that there should be putbacks...  it will just be a long time before many of those issues have a day in court]

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:12 | Link to Comment Nid
Nid's picture

But but but...
Jamie Dimon Says " All Signs ‘Flashing Green’ on U.S. Housing Rebound"- http://t.co/n5LT0HXm

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:26 | Link to Comment Paul Atreides
Paul Atreides's picture

Surreal yet funny.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:09 | Link to Comment Seditious Blasphemer
Seditious Blasphemer's picture

Step 1 - listen to what Dimon says to do.
Step 2 - check with the Bernanke.
Step 3 - DO THE EXACT OPPOSITE
Step 4 - ???????
Step 5 - Profit!

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:22 | Link to Comment blindman
blindman's picture

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2012/04/jpm-expected-to-pay-wri...
'This land is our land, their money is our money.'

"..The $20 million is nothing to JPM, but the CFTC could certainly put it to good use. Perhaps they could use it to move along their study exposing the outrageous manipulation in the silver market by one or two banks that has been slowly moving along for the past four years. Now that is a symbol that we might believe in.

Bloomberg
JPMorgan Pays $20 Million to Settle CFTC Segregated-Fund Claims By Gregory Mott Apr 4, 2012

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) will pay $20 million to resolve U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission claims that the bank mishandled customer segregated funds from Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. from 2006 to 2008.

The CFTC announced the settlement with JPMorgan in a statement today. Mary Sedarat, a spokeswoman for New York-based JPMorgan, wasn’t immediately available for comment. "

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:15 | Link to Comment dogismyth
dogismyth's picture

good god....you are still quoting Reuters for news and its faux research??

Yes, let's have an unending conversation on propaganda and BS articles.

good ruck.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:49 | Link to Comment riphowardkatz
riphowardkatz's picture

and the graph is from the unreliable when its positive but reliable when its negative NAR.

Hard to keep up with the flip flopping around here. Like Thanksgiving at the Kerrys

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:17 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

what were Jamie Dimons famous last words?

"the bottom is in!"

only a few million homes hidden on bankers books to go Jamie ...price deflation tsunami waiting to find a new reality on the real housing bottom

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:34 | Link to Comment Elwood P Suggins
Elwood P Suggins's picture

Are you sure it wasn't "I'm in the bottom"?

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:23 | Link to Comment Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

Dear Eric Holder, Ur a banker owned bitch ass cock sucker who I hope catches a very hot slug. Fuck you sincerely, An unafraid resister...

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:24 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

beautifully put

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 01:15 | Link to Comment OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

Yep, though signed with an alias

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:18 | Link to Comment Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Guys, hundred years from now we will laugh about this.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:26 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

the reality will probably be in 100 years we'll be pushing up daisies and Congress will (still) be hiding this colossal stinking WS/DC mess under a rug

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 01:16 | Link to Comment OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

If, a hundred years from now, you hear me laugh; you'll shit a brick.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:20 | Link to Comment Paul Atreides
Paul Atreides's picture

The Bank Event Horizon is an economic theory that draws a correlation between the level of economic (and emotional) depression of a society and the number of banks the society has.

The theory is summarized as such: as a society sinks into depression, the people of the society need to cheer themselves up by buying useless goods. This is usually done through the withdraw of money. As more money is spent on useless goods, more banks are built, and the value of the money begins to diminish as the demand for different types of useless goods increases the amount of money required to buy said goods. This makes people want more money.

The above turns into a vicious cycle, the end result being that other industries begin to falter.

Eventually the titular Bank Event Horizon is reached, where the only type of store economically viable to build is a bank. At this point, society ceases to function, and the economy collapses, sending a world into ruin.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:08 | Link to Comment czarangelus
czarangelus's picture

Wicked HHG reference.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:16 | Link to Comment Urban Roman
Urban Roman's picture

It was funnier with shoe stores.

This event horizon isn't so funny because we are actually doing it.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:20 | Link to Comment Asher88
Asher88's picture

Where's my bailout??!!!!

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:28 | Link to Comment BrokeDayTrader
BrokeDayTrader's picture

GS and MS were crushed today, two biggest canaries

Tomorrow the rest of the market gets creamed, along with high flyers like priceline and apple

Bring It Baby!!

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:39 | Link to Comment New World Chaos
New World Chaos's picture

Said all this before, will say it again.

Advantages to renting:

  • No worries about robosigning, fraudclosure, or clouded title.  All these things will continue because they are part of an Illuminati plot to ensure that all of America's honestly earned wealth is consumed by various bottom-feeders.  This is designed to tip the national psyche further towards parasitism and sociopathy, which are more manageable.  Consider this plot when considering the massive number of bottom-feeders we face:
  • When starving bureaucrats jack up all the taxes and municipal fees until they are more than the mortgage, you can move (or live in a car).
  • You won't be a sitting target for zombies or roving gangs of unpaid cops looking for forfeiture plunder.
  • No house for Feds, lawyers, banksters, or greedy exes to steal.
  • You can arrange to have your mail delivered elsewhere, increasing your chances of escaping the first big FEMA roundup (make sure your cellphone never leaves a trail to the place that you sleep.  Keep the battery out too).
  • You can be gone in 60 seconds and never look back.
  • No worries about desperate tenants strip-mining the place for copper and suing you when they electrocute themselves.  The system rewards such behavior.
  • No worries about the Terrorist Blogger Asset Securitization Act of 2013.
  • No worries about a housing flash crash when the bond market implodes.
  • No worries about ending up with a nice place on the wrong side of the DMZ.  Location, location, location.

Possible advantages to owning:

  • You might be able to get a house with a 30-year fixed mortgage and very little money down, you might be able to pay back the mortgage after the dollar becomes worthless but before they switch all the contracts to a new (supposedly gold-backed) currency, the pig-men might decide to let you keep your house, rule of law might eventually be re-established, and the title might be clear when you sell.
Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:44 | Link to Comment riphowardkatz
riphowardkatz's picture

those look a lot more like advantages to being homeless

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:07 | Link to Comment New World Chaos
New World Chaos's picture

Homelessness isn't so bad.  Most people aren't ready to make the leap, but for those who are, consider getting together with like-minded friends and becoming BLM hobos.  Move every two weeks.  Fresh scenery, less attention drawn to yourselves, complies with BLM regulations (which probably won't be enforced).  I'd say it's a serious option for anyone living out west, and the west will be the place to be in the coming years.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:24 | Link to Comment Seditious Blasphemer
Seditious Blasphemer's picture

An All Club 24 Fitness Membership is how I do it.

Just upgraded to Super Sport clubs, its awesome.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:39 | Link to Comment neidermeyer
neidermeyer's picture

AGREED ,, live in a van and have a "Planet Fitness" membership for showers...

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:59 | Link to Comment wisefool
wisefool's picture

well then you should see the list for minimum secuity prison, best of all worlds.  Just make sure you can pop a 90 or better on a standardized IQ test, if not they dont actually put you in prison for felonies, they make you part of the cabinet.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 01:30 | Link to Comment OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

OT to the thread, but not to your comment.  They're flying monster things at night here in the desert.  Second low level flight of huge vehicle, sounds jet powered but moving about 80 mph, little more than 500 ft up.  This is the area where they tested drones, then drone helicopters, and now this.  Drone Bomber?

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:40 | Link to Comment kekekekekekeke
kekekekekekeke's picture

thanks for this.  It's hard when you're thinking about settling down and starting a family and THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A BETTER TIME TO BUY and maybe I should get a house after years of renting!!! etc but you're helping me keep perspective :]  if only I can convince my partner...

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 02:45 | Link to Comment New World Chaos
New World Chaos's picture

Male partner, I assume?  Usually it's the opposite problem around here.  Does he read ZH?

The bond crash, riots, and subsequent crackdown will destroy the mortgage market and also awaken a large number of people to just how screwed the system is.  Housing will crash again.  Then it will behave like the Zimbabwe stock market.  Good luck catching the falling knife.  I don't think you have missed it. 

In a functional society, I am guessing housing is undervalued at 10x rent or 3x mean income.  You may pick it up for less during a collapse.  Interesting anecdote: A Zimbabwean says it was at 17x rent during their collapse.  This was due to a very strong system of protecting title (except for white farmers), houses becoming the main vehicle for savings, real rents collapsing due to people moving in with family, and the government forbidding local councils from raising their fees (they shut down).  I suspect it won't work out so well for America. 

Make sure not to buy in an area that will wither due to peak oil, lack of local water, poisoned frackwater, gangs, or a despotic local warlord/city council.  Sheriff Joe Arpaio will have his very own gulag utopia.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 07:10 | Link to Comment Husk-Erzulie
Husk-Erzulie's picture

Terrorist Blogger Asset Securitization Act of 2013

Nice.  It may be that finely tuned black humor is a very good meter of totalitarian socialism.  There is no Pravda in Izvestia and no Izvestia in Pravda.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:33 | Link to Comment Toxicosis
Toxicosis's picture

PAGING BRUSCA....PAGING BRUSCA...  Oh can you please help us out here old friend.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:35 | Link to Comment Paracelsus
Paracelsus's picture

If you went to almost any country on this planet I very much doubt you would find them chucking three hundred years of contract law out the window (without a fascist system of gov't).That rumbling sound is the founding fathers spinning in their graves.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:43 | Link to Comment Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

50,000 RPM

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:35 | Link to Comment Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

so the fucking AGs make a settlement and this allows the foreclosure tidal wave to begin again........add 50 more names to the list traitors

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:17 | Link to Comment Hohum
Hohum's picture

49.  The Oklahoma AG did not sign

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:52 | Link to Comment kekekekekekeke
kekekekekekeke's picture

what does that mean is it OK to buy in OK?

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:25 | Link to Comment Jethro
Jethro's picture

I live in OK.  This is enemy territory for the current administration.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 23:05 | Link to Comment Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

"add 50 more names to the list traitors..."
U meant, "add 50 more slugs to the delivery list..."
CHECK!

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:39 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

Ah just one well placed asteroid would do wonders to resolve this shadow inventory issue. With our luck it would hit Australia or Afghanistan

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:41 | Link to Comment silverdragon
silverdragon's picture

Probably best to by housing at the bottom, which is a long way off.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:55 | Link to Comment riphowardkatz
riphowardkatz's picture

I bet you are great at knowing when the bottom is. Best money people in the world admit they can't pick bottoms by golly silverdragon knows one when he sees one. 

Can you let us all know when it hits? 

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 00:07 | Link to Comment WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

When absolutely no one wants to be a homeowner, the bottom will be in.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:42 | Link to Comment Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

Vacant houses "owned" by banksters?  Opportunities to oCCuPy FiSHeS!

Get local - get organized - get your shit together!

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:05 | Link to Comment Melin
Melin's picture

OT but "crony capitalism" is a destructive label. 

Both "sides" are using it with the intended consequence of forever fixing in people's minds and history that Capitalism caused the economic destruction we're experiencing.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:42 | Link to Comment RSDallas
RSDallas's picture

Bring It on baby. Some of us have been waiting a long time for this.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:45 | Link to Comment bugs_
bugs_'s picture

shadow inventory meet shadow buyers

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:46 | Link to Comment zerotohero
zerotohero's picture

Ya know the fix is in - TPTB are like Harry Potter with his fuckin' wand - presto chango - no problemo.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:47 | Link to Comment Paracelsus
Paracelsus's picture

That 90 day overdue line is not looking good all.

Face it,if someone is overdue two or more monthly mortgage payments,who has that kind of cash laying around?

Also,that bit in the settlement about a blanket indemnity for crimes committed makes me want to puke. For $25 billion they got off very cheap.While he was at it why didn't the AG bring in a new law: Automatic guillotine for control fraud...

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 21:54 | Link to Comment Alexandros
Alexandros's picture

...Simple things happening all over Europe in exactly the same way. It was the same loansharking Goldman Sachs, that was financing the European Investment Bank and “connived" with Simitis the fiscal data of Greece, so that ECB would be justified to buy Greek bonds using Goldman Sachs money, so that Bobolas could undertake the overcost public works ...Bobolas, who was a Goldman Sachs’ partner ...it's a self-serving behavior ...and who pays for it? Fools of course! After the fall of the Berlin Wall, the loan sharks’ “trashes” have “flooded” Europe.

American loan sharks represented now the international “Market”. But they needed the “umbilical cord” that connected them with the USA to arrange their “prints” as far as the accounting was concerned. ECB lent huge amounts of money to the European countries, because theoretically it has borrowed these corresponding amounts from the USA. It lent the “photocopies” borrowed by the FED at the price of real money. The American “pump” has started “blowing up” Europe using Frankfurt as its “valve”. Do you understand the reason why the European Union, even though it had a common currency, it did not function as a real "super-country” but as an “association” of independent national states?

...

Global Debt Crisis

 

http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2012/01/global-debt-crisis.html

 

Authored by PANAGIOTIS TRAIANOU

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:10 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

Newton's 3r Law of Motion: For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.

Living in communism the first 19 years of my life I can guarantee that the power of the gov to do something is way, way, way overrated. 


There is nothing, absolutely nothing more natural than the Law of Supply/Demand. Reminder, IT IS A NATURAL LAW. If you mess up with the supply, demand will revenge equally. If you mess up with the demand, supply will revenge equally.


The gov is messing up with the demand right now, trying to create UN-NATURAL demand. Supply will revenge, UN-NATURALLY, guaranteed.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:07 | Link to Comment BORT
BORT's picture

SO this second mountain of resets to Option ARMs are mking their way through the python.  I am seeing a number of foreclosures in the paper that are 2006 with interest rates of 4+%.  They are beginning to move again

 

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:08 | Link to Comment sosoome
sosoome's picture

Long bulldozers.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:13 | Link to Comment Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Hows that Mark to Market accounting thingy going for the banks...?

No new magic accounting rules from the FASB ?

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:15 | Link to Comment Augustus
Augustus's picture

"Thank the robosettlement, where in exchange for a few wrist slaps, contract law was thoroughly trampled by America's attorneys general, . . . ."

That is a joke, correct?  The refi whores who took the cash for years from the piggy bank and bought cars and vacations were never supposed to make a payment?  Who knew that those notes with the promise to pay had a "crossed my fingers" clause?  why would a lender check the credit of someone with a valid Blockbuster card? the Rev. Jessie and Rev. Al would know it had to do with profiling by racists.

If contract law and fraud were to be fully enforced against the defaulting borrowers, there would be a labor shortage caused by building the prisons for them.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 23:30 | Link to Comment BidnessMan
BidnessMan's picture

If contract law, lending fraud, and CDO fraud had been enforced at any level against a few Banksters at the start of this mess, this problem would not now exist. Bankster con artists paid themselves million dollar bonuses for hundreds of billions of mortgages they knew were frauds - because they were filling in fraudulent incomes and forging borrower signatures.

So stop being a self-righteous prick and STFU about any claim that the entire problem was caused by cheating borrowers. There was a corrupt lender up to their elbows in every corrupt mortgage, aiding and abetting the fraud all the way to each closing. You were probably one of them. Congrats - you ruined a lot of lives.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 23:45 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

I like your Bio. By nature I try to find sth I do not agree with. My problem with your Bio is that I find nothing to disagree with.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 01:12 | Link to Comment snblitz
snblitz's picture

Absolutely no one remembers Janet Reno's threat?

  Stop the racial profiling in loan applications or we may pay you a visit.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 22:47 | Link to Comment MeBizarro
MeBizarro's picture

Pretty much.  Like the drug supplier/dealer blaming the junkie for needing his fix. 

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:16 | Link to Comment brother shamus
brother shamus's picture

Unfortunately, as much as I agree with a lot of the premise, the Feds are doing everything they can to make a sizeable dent in the inventory that should be coming on to the market:

"REO rental program to capture 20% of foreclosure pipeline"

http://www.housingwire.com/article/reo-rental-program-capture-20-foreclo...

 

and

"

 

FHFA's DeMarco: FHFA to make decision on GSE Principal Reductions this month"

http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/23871/BostonSecurityAnalystsSociety4412F.pdf

 

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:16 | Link to Comment Hohum
Hohum's picture

The bigger long term problem with housing is a baby boom generation looking to sell and millenials up to their eyeballs in student loan debt and uncertain job prospects unwilling/unable to buy.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 23:11 | Link to Comment Thomas Jefferson
Thomas Jefferson's picture

You forgot generation X who are stuck in the Boomers crappy 1976 start home bilevels which are hideous and falling apart.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:18 | Link to Comment Catullus
Catullus's picture

Scraps. You got scraps off their plates, AGs. The biggest fraud ever and you got the scraps. Stole every title for every home loan securitized in the past 15 years.

Read this government monitors: you're on the fast track to failure with this one. Forget about middle class wealth or "saving the system" or a tepid recovery. You've fucked up basic claims to property. It's qualitatively different.

There is no reason to get involved in a mortgage. Its not a contract in any sense of the meaning. They're creating money out of nothing based on leverage from deposits and when they sell off the note, they still claim title. You'll never "pay off" a mortgage ever again because these people are never going to stop demanding money from you. And you'll never get the title of the home transferred to you. It's an uncompletable transaction. It's broken to the point that only a fool would take out a mortgage now.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:19 | Link to Comment Snakeeyes
Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:23 | Link to Comment Destinapp
Destinapp's picture

As with any new "crisis", the "solution" will just create a massive opportunity for us to get screwed again. In this case it will be the wholesale unloading of these foreclosed homes at ridiculously low prices to non-descript entities run by Goldman and JP Morgan.

It's already started:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/20/us-usa-foreclosures-investors-idUSBRE82J12M20120320

I bet they can count the discount towards their settlement as they sell the houses to themselves.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:26 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Off the cliff at full throttle! No houses around me selling. Each couple of weeks they keep knocking the prices down to get interest.

In the mean time why worry if your underwater. 

Here are the new HARP 2.0 terms:

*NO EQUITY required to qualify
*Low Credit Scores OK
*No Assets Required
*Underwater Properties
*Skip Up To TWO Mortgage Payments

 

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:36 | Link to Comment tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

"...Republicans and the FHFA oppose principal reduction because of the risk of "moral hazard"- ..."

the republicans can go fuck themselves....moral hazard went up in smoke in 1970 when congress bailed out penn central and since then we have seen an avalanche of bailouts of irresponsible incompetent but nonetheless highly educated managers...

for the psychopathic republicans, moral hazard is a one way street to screw people and enlarge banksters....democraps are no better....

who made hawked these morally hazardous loans? who made them? who drug ninjas off the street to robosign on the dotted line? fuck the banksters and the republicans...

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:38 | Link to Comment Wixard
Wixard's picture

You could say the chickens are coming home to roost.

 

But instead you need to think the move "the birds"

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:43 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

As much as I despise the settlement for the broken banks, the only way we will ever get a bottom in housing is to clear out the inventory the banks hold. Guess it will take another 4 or 5 years for that to happen. Then prices will stop going down and languish along the bottom for another year or two since there will be no demand, as the middle class sinks into the abyss. Then if prices start to move up a bit for another year or so....that is when you buy. No need to find the bottom. Just follow the trend.

You need a cave. And while renting has many advantages, if you find the right place at the correct price, can put 20% down and afford the payments, after you have 6 months of savings in confetti, (plus your physical) then you buy a house. It is your cave, so if it goes down another 10 or 15% so what. You gotta have a cave for you and your significant others.

As far as the rest of the economy, until the printing press is taken away from the Madman, no change. Just a deeper and deeper hole, until it all goes....Poof!

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 00:24 | Link to Comment Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Two risks you're not considering:

1.  You don't actually own the home until the mortgage is completely paid off, and this additionally assumes you can get a clean title.  You are effectively renting the house from the bank until the loan is satisfied.

2.  Property taxes.  Is your income keeping up with property tax increases?  In revenue downturns, what prevents the government from raising your property taxes?  What is the upper bound for those property taxes?  Who actually owns the house and land if you fail to pay those taxes? 

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 00:59 | Link to Comment snblitz
snblitz's picture

In CA we have Proposition 13.  Which is in fact the only thing holding the state together.

The governor is going to try to break Prop 13 and then yes, the state will take all the property.

Not only are property taxes limited in upside (around 1% per year growth) they track assessed value.  Oddly enough there is no limit down.

So hey, if you are looking for some place nice to retire in a few years, try California. 300+ sunny days per year!

Of course, the courts have already decided that "fees" or "assessments" against property are not a tax and therefore not limited by Prop 13.  But hey, believe it or not, it is still the wild west out here and there are counties with next to no government and hence no fees or assessments.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 01:13 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Ya know, just the opposite may happen.
For example, I recently inherited property subject to the family assessment exemption.  For those of you from outside CA the reason the state wants to do away with Prop 13 is that a family menber inheriting the property continues with the original basis plus the 1% or so per annum increase for tax assessment purposes.  Next to no property taxes as it was bought in the early 70's.
BUT if Gov Moonbeam and his Liberal Cohorts manage to defeat/repeal 13, then while they may think they'll get additional taxes upon tose structures subject to upward reassessment, I got some BAD FUCKING news for them

The Law of Unintended Consequences.

That happens, me and a whole raft of other folks willl just sell their property.  Watch ALL home prices collapse as new sales enter the market.
In total, betcha net property tax reciepts would FALL.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:56 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Property taxes, in a very significant sense, are very local, hometown decisions...  while there are plenty of runaway municipalities, there are also plenty of places whose local populace pushes back any proposals to increase taxes... 

A mortgage is a different ball of wax...  although, the idiots managed to shoot themselves in the foot while unholstering the gun they were planning on shooting J6P with...

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:47 | Link to Comment Ocean22
Ocean22's picture

Banks=predatory pigs. This was all part of the plan.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 22:55 | Link to Comment Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

Anyone looking for, or predicting, a "bottom" in housing is neglecting sociopolitical chaos.

The "housing market" every day becomes more of an also-ran...

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 23:00 | Link to Comment Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Still waiting to buy my ski cabin...

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 00:58 | Link to Comment TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

that would imply snow, which is harder to find than obama's birth certificate. Its so damn hot my ice cubes are sweating and its barely april.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 23:05 | Link to Comment Thomas Jefferson
Thomas Jefferson's picture

Just in time for elections.  What this housing recovery needs is bulldozers and gas.  We have 9 million home to demolish folks.  It aint going to be easy.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 23:14 | Link to Comment Thomas Jefferson
Thomas Jefferson's picture

I suggest Ben Bernanke calls up China and orders up 1 million screaming Chinamen hungry for housing.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 08:20 | Link to Comment j0nx
j0nx's picture

Yeah they tried that with the Mexicans during the boom but they all packed up in the middle of the night some time in 2008, abandoned their homes to foreclosure - leaving a local financial disaster in their wake, and headed home in droves only to return a year later as renters - 10+ to a house I might add. Does wonders for the local neighborhood cleanliness and the commute on the roads packed with cars...

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