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The Seeds For An Even Bigger Crisis Have Been Sown

Tyler Durden's picture




 

On occasion of the publication of his new gold report (read here), Ronald Stoeferle talked with financial journalist Lars Schall about fundamental gold topics such as: "financial repression"; market interventions; the oil-gold ratio;  the renaissance of gold in finance; "Exeter’s Pyramid"; and what the true "value" of gold could actually look like. Via Matterhorn Asset Management.

By Lars Schall

Ronald Stoeferle, who is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and a Certified Financial Technician (CFTe), was born October 27, 1980 in Vienna, Austria. During his studies in business administration and finance at the Vienna University of Economics and the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign in the USA, he worked for Raiffeisen Zentralbank (RZB) in the field of Fixed Income / Credit Investments. After graduating, Stoeferle joined Vienna based Erste Group Bank (http://www.erstegroup.com), covering International Equities, especially Asia. In 2006 he began writing reports on gold. His five benchmark reports on gold such as “A Shiny Outlook” and “In Gold We Trust” drew international coverage on CNBC, Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times. Since 2009 he also writes reports on crude oil. The latest gold report by Stoeferle was published today.

Lars Schall: What is “financial repression“ according to Ronald Stoeferle?

Ronald Stoeferle: Financial repression as a perfidious form of redistribution. It always means a combination of incentives and restrictions for banks and insurance companies, which cause the investment universe to be substantially reduced for investors. This means that capital is channelled away from the asset classes that it would flow into in a more liberal environment.

I sincerely believe that financial repression will continue to crop up in many shapes and sizes over the coming years. However, the long-term costs of the lack in efforts made towards consolidating national finances are substantial. While low bond yields in the short run suggest that the saving measures are on course, one has to bear in mind that this has mainly been achieved by market interventions.

Therefore, we regard the gradual transfer of assets as a disastrous strategy in the long run.

What happens is that none of the previous problems of misallocation are resolved, but instead redistribution takes place (at the beginning mostly invisibly) and problems are dragged out,  having to be addressed later. As the dependence on these measures rises, so does the collateral damage to be expected later, and the seeds for an even bigger crisis have been sown.

L.S.: What does all that mean for gold?

R.S.: Negative real interest rates are an important cornerstone of financial repression. And negative real interest rates represent the perfect environment for the gold price. During the 20 years of the gold bear market in the 1980s and 1990s, the average real interest rate level was around 4%. Real interest rates were negative in only 5.9% of all months. The situation in the 1970s, however, was completely different: real interest rates were negative in 54% of the months. Since 2000 real interest rates have been negative for 51% of the time, which constitutes an optimal environment for gold. Due to the overindebtness (that I am also
discussing in my report), I believe that this trend will continue.

L.S.: Are the interventions undertaken by western central banks and commercial banks in the gold and other markets more obvious than ever?

R.S.: Yes, especially after the 29th  of February. In general I write in my report that there is a fine line between intervention (usually a governmental / political interference) and manipulation (negative connotation in terms of “exerting influence”).

There have been official and legitimised interventions by central banks in bond rates (Operation Twist, Quantitative Easing) and currencies (Swiss franc, Japanese yen). Both the quantity and the price of money are managed, i.e. controlled. The oil price is subject to interventions (OPEC cartel, release of strategic reserves), as are the food prices (subsidies).

Kevin Warsh has recently confirmed this:

“Now that I am out of government, I can tell you what I really believe… Central banks are now so heavily influencing asset prices that investors are unable to ascertain market values…

This influence is especially evident with the Fed’s purchase of government bonds, which has made it impossible for investors to use bond prices to learn anything about markets.” (1)

A strong gold price signals a decline in trust in the financial and monetary system, thus I believe that it would be naïve to think that gold is exempt from interventions. However, according to Dow theory, the primary trend cannot be manipulated, because the inherent market forces are simply too strong.

L.S.: Could the renaissance of central bank buying be interpreted as a contrary indicator?

R.S.: A legitimate question. It is no secret that central banks tend to be civil servants with an  extremely pro-cyclical investment behaviour. And with good reason I have to say: since the purchase of asset classes with negative performance in the past years is difficult to justify vis-à-vis the public and also to internal committees, purchases tend to be made on a “past-performance” basis.
However, I believe that the central bank purchases signal a new phase of the bull market.

Since the buyers are mostly emerging countries, we regard these efforts as a logical catching up. Compared with the industrialised nations, the majority of the central banks in emerging nations remain clearly underweighted in gold. Thus the hedging of their enormous US dollar holdings is inadequate.

Cynics would call the Bank of England the “ultimate contrary indicator”. In the years 1999 to 2002, 395 tonnes of gold were sold at an average price of USD 275 under the then Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown. Given that this was the absolute low of the gold price, it is also called the “Brown bottom”. If the Bank of England were to announce purchases, I would therefore regard this as a warning signal for the gold price.

L.S.: What does the current oil-gold ratio tell you? And why is ist worthwhile to pay attention to it at all?

R.S.: One ounce of gold currently buys 15 barrels of oil. This is exactly the long-term median, and it means that gold is fairly valued in relation to oil. The all time high of 1986 would have bought 40 barrels of crude oil. The historical low was set in 2008 at close to six barrels for one ounce. But now it seems that the almost 25 years of outperformance of oil are coming to an end, and gold is gaining in relative strength again. The following chart highlights the substantial erosion of purchasing power since 1971. It
shows on the one hand the gold/oil ratio (i.e. how many barrels of oil does one ounce of gold buy) and on the other hand the inverted oil price (i.e. how many units of oil do I get for USD

1). For reasons of user-friendliness we have standardised both values at 100 on a logarithmic scale. Whereas the oil price in terms of gold has been stable since 1971, the USD has lost more than 98% of its purchasing power in terms of oil.

L.S.: Do you think the BRICS, SCO and ASEAN countries follow a very different gold policy than the West?

R.S.: Absolutely. They want to cast off the shackles of the US dollar. There are a number of examples indicating the increasing skepticism vis-à-vis the US dollar. For example South Africa has already taken concrete steps to replace the US dollar as the favoured currency for international trade transactions. From now on, the country wants to invoice in Chinese renminbi when trading with other emerging countries. Standard Bank, the largest African bank, expects trading volume in renminbi between China and Africa to hit USD 100bn by 2015. China seems to regard South Africa as the gate to the entire African market.

China and Japan, too, want to increasingly avoid the USD. In December, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao and the Japanese Prime Minister Noda agreed to promote trade in yuan and yen. China has become the most important trading partner for Japan (USD 340bn per year). The two countries hold the biggest volumes of US Treasuries. Therefore, the importance and symbolic power of this piece of news cannot be ver-emphasised.

L.S.: Quite a lot of people want to tell their audiences that gold is in a bubble. Your take?

R.S.: Well, while gold remains a highly popular issue for discussion, it is not a highly popular asset in portfolios. The underweighting of gold by institutional investors is particularly profound. Institutions continue to hold only 0.15% of their assets in gold. I do not expect an imminent paradigm shift, this is practically impossible for regulatory reasons. But even a weighting of 2-3% in institutional portfolios would trigger enormous effects.

The allocation of investment capital in gold mining shares is similarly insignificant. The market capitalisation of all 16 stocks in the Gold Bugs index amounted to USD 180bn as of the end of June. By comparison, the monthly budget deficit of the US was USD 198bn in March alone. To make a log story short, I would say no, gold is in no bubble at all.

L.S.: Do you welcome the possible new classification of gold as a zero-risk asset? What consequences would this likely have?

R.S.: Yes, absolutely. At the moment it is only a proposal, but I think that the decision would have a wide range of implications. Gold would officially become “as good as gold” again and would rank on the same level as cash. The opportunity cost of holding gold will be reduced massively. There’s also a number of other aspects that I called “the renaissance of gold in finance”.

L.S.: What are those aspects?

R.S.: For example, in a study, the IMF forecasts a drastic increase in the demand for safe investments as well as a significant decline in the supply of such investments. The IMF expects the share of safe haven assets to fall by 16% or USD 9,000bn by the year 2016. Due to the turbulences, which are expected to continue, the IMF envisages a continued strong increase in demand for safe investments, but at the same time a drastic decline in their availability.

This process has already started. At the end of 2007, 68% of all industrialised nations commanded a AAA rating, whereas nowadays this percentage has fallen to 52%. In accordance with the law of supply and demand, this will trigger an increase in the “insurance premium” of safe investments. I expect the debt and system crisis to cause a thorough review of the international monetary system. The downgrading of the ratings of numerous countries and companies will likely continue and come with a clearly positive effect for gold as safe haven.
Moreover, due to it’s high liquidity and unique characteristics, gold is becoming ever more prominent as collateral. Along with LCH.Clearnet, IntercontinentalExchange, JP Morgan, and the CME Group, Eurex, too, now accepts gold as collateral. This step definitely makes sense for clearing houses. On the one hand these institutions can diversify their assets (due to the low or in some cases even negative correlation), on the other hand they honour the wish of many market participants, who want to lodge gold as collateral. This initiative is currently also supported by the World Gold Council, which in addition wants to have gold acknowledged as “tier 1” asset within the framework of Basel III.

L.S.: One big chapter of your report is dedicated to “the biggest misconception with regard to gold”. What is this?

R.S.: From my point of view, the gold sector is riddled with an elementary misunderstanding. Many gold investors and analysts operate on an erroneous assumption: they attach too much importance to annual production and annual demand. We often read that the gold price cannot drop below production costs. Therefore, I am discussing this misconception in the report… In this regard, I would highly recommend the articles by Robert Blumen on this subject.

Now what do I mean by that? Every gramme of gold that is held for a variety of reasons is for sale at a certain price. Many owners would sell at a price slightly above spot, others would only sell at a substantially higher price. If, due to favourable prices, a private individual wants to sell his gold holdings that he acquired decades ago, it will not reduce the overall supply of gold. All that happens is the transfer from one private portfolio to another private portfolio. To the buyer, it makes no difference whether the gold was produced three weeks or three millennia ago.

L.S.: That’s true.

R.S.: And this means the annual gold production of close to 2,600 tonnes is of relatively little significance to the pricing process. Rather, the supply side consists of all the gold that has ever been produced. The recycling of existing gold accounts for a much larger share of supply than is the case for other commodities. Paradoxically, gold is not in short supply– the opposite is the case: it is one of the most widely dispersed goods in the world. Given that its industrial use is limited, the majority of all gold ever produced is still available.

L.S.: Why do you see the stock-to-flow ratio in contrast as “the most important characteristic of gold”?

R.S.: Because it’s what differentiates gold (and silver) from commodities. In contrast to commodities, the discrepancy between annual production and total available supply (i.e. the stock) for gold and silver is enormous. This is called a high stock-to-flow ratio. As I have pointed out already in my gold report of last year, I believe that this is the single most important distinctive feature of gold (and silver). The aggregate volume of all the gold ever produced comes to about 170,000 tonnes. This is the stock. Annual production was close to 2,600 tonnes in 2011. That is the flow. Dividing the former by the latter, we receive the stock-to-flow ratio of 65 years.

Gold reserves grow by about 1.5% every year, and thus at a much slower rate than any of the money supply aggregates around the world. The growth rate is vaguely in line with population growth. Trust in the current and future purchasing power of money or any means of payment not only depends on how much is available now, but also on how the quantity is expected to change over time.

L.S.: What does that mean in numbers?

R.S.: Well, if annual mine production were to double (which is highly unlikely), this would translate into an annual increase of only 3% in the supply of gold. This is still a very minor inflation of total gold reserves, especially compared to current rates of dilution of paper currencies. This fact creates a sense of security as far as availability is concerned and prevents natural inflation.

If production were down for a year, this would also have little effect on the total stock and on pricing. On the other hand, if a significant part of oil production were to be disrupted for an extended period of time, stocks would be exhausted after only a few weeks. This means it is much easier for gold to absorb any form of significant production expansions or shortages.

L.S.: You also mention in the report the term “reservation demand”. Why is this concept so fundamental for understanding gold?

R.S.: The demand side is made up of investors, the jewellery industry, central banks, and the industrial sector. But this is still only a fraction of total demand. From my point of view, reservation demand accounts for the largest part of demand. This term describes gold owners who do not want to sell gold at the current price level. By refusing to sell, they are responsible for the price remaining at the same level. (2)

Therefore, the decision not to sell at current prices is as important as the decision to buy gold. In net terms, the effect on the price is the same. The gold supply is therefore always high. At a price of USD 5,000, the supply of recycled gold would exceed annual production several times. This also explains why the often-quoted gold deficit is a fairy tale.

L.S.: One factor for the price of gold is the struggle deflation vs inflation. Given the commodity price data, do you see deflation as a major problem?

R.S.: I think that a massive deflation (hyperdeflation) would be the normal reaction of the market at the moment. What does usually happen during a period of profound deflation?

Public budgets are over-strained, the financial sector does face systemic problems, and currencies are depreciated in order to reflate the system. Moreover, the credit quality deteriorates gradually, and the creditworthiness of companies and government is questioned. The investment focus shifts from capital growth to capital preservation. The confidence in the financial system and paper currencies declines, while the importance of gold increases and a remonetisation takes place. Does that sound familiar to you?

The fear of deflation as manifested, for example, in numerous essays and speeches by Ben Bernanke (e.g. “Deflation: Making Sure ‘It’ Doesn’t Happen Here”) seems to argue very much in favour of further interventions in increasing magnitude. Therefore,  I think that the natural shake-out during a deflationary recession will probably be avoided at all costs. This should continue to create a positive environment for gold.

L.S.: In connection to this it might be helpful to talk also about a topic that you are referrring to in your report as “Exeter’s Pyramid”. Could you explain this, please?

R.S.: Sure. The pyramid named after John Exeter ( a US economist, former vice president of the Federal Reserve New York and member of the Council on Foreign Relations) shows the liquidity flows between the various asset classes. In an often-quoted interview, (3) Exeter expected a deflationary collapse, in the course of which gold would significantly gain in importance.

He says that in a deflationary depression, as in an hourglass, liquidity flows from the higher part of the pyramid downwards, amid falling willingness to assume risk. At the upper end, liquidity would dry up due to the lack of buyers and revert from a sellers’ to a buyers’ market. Since credit is “slumbering mistrust”, (4) creditors try to sell the continuously falling number of liquid assets and head for the lower asset classes as a result of their rising risk aversion. At the bottom end is gold. Due to the general scepticism the circulation of gold declines, as it is increasingly being hoarded. The degree of hoarding always depends proportionately on the confidence in the government and the currency. Gold is never scarce unless it is hoarded – for good reasons – and deliberately hidden. Since gold does not hinge on any form of IOU, it is the only alternative to paper money and is thus at the bottom of the upside-down pyramid. Or as Alan Greenspan said in 2010: “Fiat money has no place to go but gold.”

L.S.: If you would calculate the price of gold based on money supply and credit creation, where do you end up?

R.S.: Well, first of all I have to say that there is no objectively measurable value of a good, and according to Carl Manger’s theory of subjective value, the value of a good is derived from the marginal utility with regard to the set goal. This means that the value of a good or a service is therefore of no objective value, but the result of a subjective process of valuation.

L.S.: Sounds fairly academic to me…

R.S.: Let me give you a classic example: a glass of water after a dry spell in the desert is probably the most valuable good on earth, correct?

L.S.: Yes.

R.S.: But after the thirst has been quenched, the marginal utility quickly declines. The one hundredth glass of water is hardly given any value anymore. But it is this last glass of water that sets the market price. The marginal utility is therefore the utility provided by the last available unit of a good that satisfies a need. In other words, the value of a good is determined by the subjective assessment of its last unit (the marginal unit).

L.S.: But in your report, you’re still discussing possible price targets for gold, right?

R.S.: Yes, because that’s basically what an analyst is supposed to do. (Laughs.) However, on the basis of the aforementioned, it is impossible to calculate a “fair value” of gold. It is only possible to analyse the relative (over- or under-) valuation vis-à-vis other asset classes and monetary aggregates.

L.S.: Is the comparison of the trends of different asset classes actually tenable?

R.S.: I think it is, since human behaviour and emotions are similar during periods of extremity. A chart reflects the collective vote of market participants.

L.S.: So how do you then “value” gold?

R.S.: Following Jim Grant I would answer this question by proposing that the price of gold be 1/T. “T” symbolises the trust of people in the currency guardians. The lower the trust in the abilities of the central bankers, the higher the price. This means the gold price equals the inverse of the trust in central banks. “1” divided by a falling number is the definition of a bull market and of a decline in trust.

I have got a number of charts in my report, that would indicate that gold is priced very reasonable at the moment. For example, applying the Pareto principle to the current gold price, I find a theoretical price target of USD 8,300. If we were to assume that the last trend phase were to start in August 2012 at USD 1,600 and the bull market had begun in August 2001, the parabolic phase would last 29 more months and thus end in Spring of 2015. The price target according to the 80/20 principle is therefore USD 8,300.(6)

L.S.: You are also mentioning the “Shadow Gold Price”…

R.S.: Yes, my friends at QB Asset Management calculate the so-called “Shadow Gold Price”.  This model is not purely academic, but rather it is the way the exchange rate of paper money and gold was calculated during Bretton Woods (US monetary base divided by US gold reserves). The Shadow Gold Price describes the theoretical gold price at which the entire monetary base would be covered by gold. This way a debt-based currency could be transformed into a currency covered by assets.

L.S.: Where is the Shadow Gold Price right now?

R.S.: Currently, the Shadow Gold Price is above USD 10,000. Given that the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 called for a gold cover of at least 40% we also depicted this cover ratio in one of the charts that I have mentioned. The gold price would have to rise to USD 4,040 for this percentage to be reached.

L.S.: Would you agree that gold mining stocks look pretty cheap at the moment?

R.S.: Yes, but first of all I would like  to point out yet again that I regard gold as currency and thus as a form of saving, whereas I consider gold shares an investment. However, having said that, I believe that the gold mining sector has a solid base. Although the pessimism is about as profound as four years ago, the fundamental shape the gold industry is in, is substantially healthier today than it was back then. Strong balance sheets, high free cash flows, a substantial increase in margins, low debt levels, and rising dividends all speak in favour of the sector.

In addition, it seems like the industry has reassessed its former “growth at any cost” approach. Therefore we believe that solid mining shares in politically stable regions currently represent a high-leverage bet on the gold price with an attractive risk/return profile. Therefore, I believe that the current, historically low, valuations offer a very attractive opportunity to invest.

L.S.: Do you expect gold going at one point into permanent backwardation? And what would this mean if it does so?

R.S.:Lasting backwardation of the gold price can only be interpreted as a lack of confidence in the future delivery of the physical good. In the case of a common good, physical scarceness is usually resolved by higher prices. At a sufficiently high price of wheat, demand will have fallen and the existing supply will be sufficient to meet the reduced demand.

But gold is different: backwardation should de facto never happen because due to the high stock-to-flow ratio there can be no “gold scarceness”. In other words, backwardation indicates a massive erosion of trust in the financial system. (7)  Gold backwardation means that the confidence in a future delivery – as compared to the safety that current ownership provides – is low. Given that at the moment only 0.3% of all contracts are exercised by physical delivery, any sudden increase in physical settlements could trigger massive turbulences. Generally speaking, it seems that we have been going through a gradual shift from paper gold investments towards physical purchases. This year, physical investment demand will probably exceed ETF demand by a factor of 5. Only a few years ago the situation was exactly the opposite, with ETFs accounting for 80% of investment demand. This paradigm shift shows the gradual loss of confidence in paper gold.

L.S.: Any final words?

R.S.: Have faith, buy gold.

 

References:
(1) Compare “Welcome to 2012 – the Financial System and the Real Economy”, Philip Barton, The Gold Standard Institute
(2) Compare “WSJ does not understand how the gold price is formed”, Robert Blumen, Mises Economics Blog
(3) See: http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle/articleid/2599701
(4) Thomas Paine
(5) Compare “Safe haven – A History of Gold”, Philip Barton,  The Gold Standard Institute
(6) Based on this model, the increase from USD 260 to USD 1,600 accounted for 20% of the total movement. This means that 80% equals USD 6,700, which, when added to the current price, yields the hypothetical price target of USD 8,300.
(7) “Permanent Gold Backwardation: The Crack Up Boom”, Keith Weiner

 

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Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:17 | 2607785 dereksatkinson
dereksatkinson's picture

Now if we could just get through summer...

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:18 | 2607789 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

This Friday the 13th, take back the money supply!

Buy Silver!!!

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:35 | 2607847 falak pema
falak pema's picture

friday the 13th... the day that Philip the Fair burnt the TEmplars for their gold!...the origin of THAT date in history! 

VENDREDI 13 – Les Templiers meurent -Gloire aux Pauvres Chevaliers du Christ ! · Non nobis Domine non nobis sed Nomini Tuo da gloriam

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:46 | 2607883 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Just make sure you hold it in a 1:10 ratio (gold to silver). Although silver will soar in a near-apocalyptic scenario, if the central banks revalue a PM upwards to repair their balance sheets, it won't be silver... Because they don't own any, and aren't buying any.

I'm starting to suspect that TPTB want to herd as many people into silver and away from gold as possible.

IMO, you should hold both, but only hold as much silver as you are willing to risk it NOT following suit with gold in a central bank revaluation.  If the CBs put a bid under gold, they won't put one under silver...  Which means silver won't appreciate anywhere near what gold will.

I'm advocating 1:10 gold:silver.  That way if it returns to it's historical ratio, you will do well.  Hold more silver if you think it's a lock that it will return to it's historical ratio - but understand that you are speculating the CBs and government will lose COMPLETE control of the situation.

If CBs pull a fast one with gold and revalue it upwards, blowing up the manipulation of the past 45 years, and sending it's relative valuation to the Moon...

So it's either a win or WIN!!! with gold...  And a far more risky bet with silver.

Also not the majority of the PM discussion in the article is about gold...

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:54 | 2607922 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

FAIL...

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:58 | 2607943 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

This from the guy who thinks gold produced in a supercollider is economically more feasible than mining... LMFAO http://www.zerohedge.com/news/seeds-even-bigger-crisis-have-been-sown#co...

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:02 | 2607965 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

Since when have the policies of nations been anything but economical?

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 19:51 | 2608278 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Hey, we got us a pack retard tonight eh?

That you Paul?

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:58 | 2607947 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

I'll take the bet on that. Much rather buy 56 oz of silver than 1 oz of gold.

With silver heading for extinction on the periodic table, I think it's priced in as a no brainer.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:02 | 2607962 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

As long as you understand the pro and con, you pay your money, you take your chances.  Good luck.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:12 | 2608018 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

Indeed I do.

As I see this shitty system of debt on debt on fraud on manipulation on debt on fucktads on ponzi on hypothecation on rehypothecation on greed on debt on ......

I think gold or silver will do you right. I'll throw my chips in on silver for now. Good luck to you too (no sarcasm intended).

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 19:17 | 2608207 Ignorance is bliss
Ignorance is bliss's picture

You should have 3 metals in your portfolio of doom. Gold, Silver, and Lead.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 02:33 | 2609089 PiratePawpaw
PiratePawpaw's picture

Im about 100 parts silver to 1 part gold in my holdings..........

Oh, to about 150 parts lead/brass.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 07:11 | 2609263 Element
Element's picture

World's largest silver mine:

http://www.mining-technology.com/projects/cannington/

http://www.bonzle.com/c/a?a=p&i=554&j=554&x=140.92705&y=-21.86902&w=3200...

Already the biggest producer, and is about to undergo a massive expansion of operations.

http://www.maptek.com/pdf/vulcan/case_studies/vulcan_cannington_casestud...

Lots of silver, lead and zinc in that mine (no gold production though).

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 19:00 | 2608164 Marginal Call
Marginal Call's picture

I'm with you on that.  I've seen estimates that there are 17 years worth of silver left, it's just too functional a metal.  And after it's all been Corzined in tomahawk missiles and iPads the historical ratio will be history. 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:52 | 2608139 i-dog
i-dog's picture

 

"I'm starting to suspect that TPTB want to herd as many people into silver and away from gold as possible."

I'm now FULLY CONVINCED of it!!!

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:55 | 2608148 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

What a dipshit

 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 19:35 | 2608244 Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture

Been watching the dollar @ 83 plus. Is this a bad fucking joke or what?

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 20:00 | 2608302 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Foreign Central Banks and likely banks in general are getting rid of the dollar and the Fed and their PDs are being forced to buy them, but then they sit on the dollars and it tightens the volacity of the supply, increasing the dollar's value.

China, Japan, India, South Africa, and others are dumping dollars as we speak.  Funny how it works that the dollar is apreciating in value.  Soon Bernanke will fractionally reserve them, drop the value, and increase the price of assets across the board.  This is what the FOMC meant today when the said they were looking at new policy tools.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 20:21 | 2608365 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

You make a great point MRL but would they even drip that thought out? I thought if they went that route we all just wake up one Monday morning and wonder who kicked us in the balls while we were asleep?

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 21:56 | 2608623 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

A manipulated bad fucking joke. Firstly, because it has lost any tie to production and secondly because it has no backing tied to gold. What it is now is a measure of strength against other manipulated currencies and the criteria is based on data feed perceptions of who is not manipulating the most. Sorta like smelling a bag of rotten onions blind folded and being asked to pick the freshest from the basket.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:40 | 2607854 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

Hahahahaha, the same ass doucher ra ra ra cheerleaders of gold as we heard during the real estate cluster fuck. PM's will not help you. For the last time people, look at where the returns are going from the BIG players. They are telling you to buy gold, while they turn around and sell at higher premiums. They are using their money for farm land and food. See a trend? PM's won't save the day when this bitch burns. Your isolated examples in history are just that - isolated, micro events, when this will be a macro global event.

 

...and before gold gets to some magical highs of 5K or more, the world will be burning as PMs are a direct coorelation with commods in general. So keep on believing the bullshit...

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:43 | 2607875 runlevel
runlevel's picture

lol

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:46 | 2607882 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

So, what, you disagree? You realize they can make all the gold they want from mercury 196 -> gold 197 in a supercollider? For shits sake they just created two previously unknown elements at the CERN facility a few days ago.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:48 | 2607896 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Your lack of understanding of the cost of energy required in such a reaction is hysterically funny.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:51 | 2607914 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

What cost in energy? You mean the nuke facility that generates the power. Oh, I have full understanding the process doucher, I have a couple of acquantices on the CERN project. In any event, PM's are not going to help you, regardless if they decide to produce gold 197 or not. You people sound like the pissed of real estate tards you got pissed when you told them not buy because prices NEVER continue up, no matter what, ie ponzi. ...but oh, no, they slurped the gravy down, and now are kicking themselves in the ass...

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:53 | 2607921 runlevel
runlevel's picture

tell me, why arent they churning out the "Gold 197" to supress the price of gold? 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:55 | 2607930 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

Because they have suckers like you to buy... why should they. All I said was it is possible - so much for the "you can't make anymore gold"... theory...

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:57 | 2607940 runlevel
runlevel's picture

so me (the sucker) buying gold.. helps supress the price? having a hard time following this logic, can you splain?  "be specific"

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 19:03 | 2608171 Marginal Call
Marginal Call's picture

Gold is made when a star goes supernova.  Yeah, we can just crap that shit out.  FIRE UP THE CERN CLETUS!

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 15:30 | 2610797 smiler03
smiler03's picture

From Mercury?? You retard, I can make Gold from Aluminium at room temperature using a biological catalyst. I piss on your Mercury process. 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:05 | 2607979 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

This doesn't make any sense at all, it's like arguing with my wife.  Can you explain your point?

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:11 | 2608011 runlevel
runlevel's picture

man could you imagine how low the price of gold would be if more than the current 1% of the market invested into gold???? 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:46 | 2608130 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

Buying something drives the price down? I hear circus music over there...... Why would Central Bankers create more gold in a sythetic enviornment? The reason CB's hoard it, in part, is because the very extraction of a finite resource from the economy prevents it's use by masses. Gold is a direct threat to fiat so they plan to make more while destroying their balance sheets in the process?? I agree. We are most likely not going back to a gold standard. But this does not mean CB's will not hoard it to claim as assets on thier balance sheet for CB to CB lending while keeping the majority out of the public hands.

You need to lay off the glue bro'.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 03:19 | 2609112 Gief Gold Plox
Gief Gold Plox's picture

Would you please be so kind as to provide some details in respect to "I have full understanding the process".

Specifically, I am interested in the source energy requirement needed to achieve the 9.1MeV neutron stream needed for the process. Furthermore I would very much appreciate anything showing Hg/Au ratio as a function of time.

Thank you.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:50 | 2607906 runlevel
runlevel's picture

the day they can "make gold" is the day the world collapses. Also, im not too concerned about CERN creating "elements" or "particles" unless they start churning out a few oz a day of gold. wouldnt it still cost money to create gold anyway.. isnt CERN using a few watts of power....

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:53 | 2607919 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

CERN CAN CREATE elements beyond the particle items they discovered the other day. As I said, regardless, PM's are not the future.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:28 | 2608079 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

Sure, dream on...
whatever it is they're doing at CERN is hearsay. ...prove it otherwise.

~//~

Judy Garland - Over the Rainbow 1955
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXJ2Q0F8H80 (3:32)

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 15:37 | 2610821 smiler03
smiler03's picture

 "the day they can "make gold" is the day the world collapses."

"Your world" might collapse, and a few other portfolios but why would the World collapse? I think a bloody great asteroid might be significantly more destructive. 

In the event of an alchemist achieving the impossible I suggest that you

"Keep Calm & Carry On".

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 20:06 | 2608320 Paul Atreides
Paul Atreides's picture

CERN destroys atoms (elements) by smashing them together at near light speed and analyzes the sub atomic particles created by the impact.

What are you smoking and can I have some?

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 00:00 | 2608891 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

PMs are not the future. OK. Am I to take your word on that or do you have a researched opinion that makes you an expert. Those central bank buyers must be complete idots in your world. Hmmmmm?

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 19:12 | 2611374 lineskis
lineskis's picture

Still depends on the time frame... It's not because it won't be usefull in 20-50 years (really? but that's for another day...) it still can be usefull for the next 20 years...

Timing baby...

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:56 | 2607935 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Wow, you just beat out Izabella Kaminska for the 'dumbest fucking argument ever' against owning gold.  And here I thought she had a lock on it with 'if everybody didn't want to own it, the price would be much lower'.  Well done.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:01 | 2607958 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

You ignorant tools have no idea what is planned. Gold or "PM's" can make you some money, I am not arguing that. However, wild assertions that PM's will outlast the last man standing are bullshit. Assertions that PM's will go to 5K and beyond are bullshit, it simply will not happen without outside forces playing on everything else - which will not bode well for humanity. ...but you go on believing all the hype. Like I said, look at were the real money is going on the back side, its not in PM's...

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 20:08 | 2608321 bigkahuna
bigkahuna's picture

YOU FOOOOOOLLS!

Trading your fiat for gold (and silver) - FOOLS!

WHY would you want to do THAT?!!! 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 21:06 | 2608478 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

Courtesy of monad,

~//~

gold, lead, alchemy & hudson hawk
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fhaotrCTgqo (1:31)

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 20:27 | 2608379 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

I hate it when I'm called an ignorant tool.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 20:38 | 2608404 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

So what are you buying with your precious fiat?

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 20:56 | 2608455 Ms. Erable
Ms. Erable's picture

That you, Johnny Bravo?

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 21:05 | 2608474 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Go kill yourself already then. It's not about gold going to 5K, it's about perserving wealth.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:19 | 2608049 runlevel
runlevel's picture

<beating dead horse>

Mercury 196, an isotope that can pick up a neutron, is placed in a nuclear reactor, and after 23 hours, it turns to gold. A real life Philosopher's Stone at our university! However, a days’ worth of nuclear reactions will create 3/10 of a cent worth of gold but costs $200 per hour to operate the reactor. You'll be far in the hole :(

</beating dead horse>

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:27 | 2608074 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

...and since when has that stopped nations from spending more than something is worth, especially when nationalized?

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 21:58 | 2608632 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

LOLer.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:54 | 2607926 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Great, thanks for the tip.  I'll ignore what's happened in the market over the past 12 years, forget gold's 'since the beginning of civilization' history as the goto store of value, forget what inevitably happens to paper currencies at their end-of-life, ignore the fact that if I had a French livre from 1720 it would be worth whatever a historian wanted to give me (probably 0, generally speaking), but a 1 oz French coin from the same time would be worth approximately $1580 (assuming it wasn't collectible) - I'll just ignore all that and get on the 'golds a commodity in a bubble' bandwagon.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:58 | 2607945 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

...and this has to do what, with the macro global event of today vs a micro non global economy of 1720? This also has to do what with the less than 1 billion people chasing more than enough energy needs of the 1720 vs the 7+ billion chasing too few commods? Because when it comes down to it, food and commods (everyday living commods) will be what is the real value. PM's won't trade... I take it you have never been involved contingency plans or simulations? Its gonna suck to be you guys...

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:17 | 2608040 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

You know, I actually think there's a pretty good chance that the shit really will hit the fan as badly as you're saying, I've had that opinion since before 2008.  But you know, if it gets really bad, it's probably going to suck to be ANYBODY, not just 'us guys' (although I think you're being pretty presumptuous in your assumptions about what I am or am not doing to prepare for the potential difficult times ahead).

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:26 | 2608070 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

I am not being pompous or presumptuous. ...and yes it will suck harder for the PM's guys. Why? Because you will be targets... cross diversity studies, and simulations on how a demography functions in "bad" times is very interesting. It is not like the "good 'ole" days of, "Mr. can you spare a dime", it will be more like, "Give me your fucking money"... as you get shot, stabbed, whatever... you have to give the impression you're poor, "one of the guys"... at this point PM's become a moot point if you cannot use them. On the flip side? I doubt it, if this goes down, these days will be known as the Golden Era, I don't believe our democracy or life as we know will ever come back within our life. Remember, most internal studies indicate 3-18 (min/max) before 90+% of the populace goes bye-bye...

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:34 | 2608090 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

How do you know I'm not poor?  How do you know I'm not one of the 'give me your fucking money' guys?  And what makes you think you'll be in the lucky 10%?

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:39 | 2608105 runlevel
runlevel's picture

so this dude is going to mug a PM guy (give me your fuckin money) so he can then do what with it? Shouldnt he be saying "give me your fuckin food"?

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:45 | 2608127 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

Well, lets look at another interesting study, Katrina and the demographic population that remained. Why, would they steal tv's, and other electronics, when no power existed? People are irrational - especially when things go south. Why would individuals rape and kill each other when they were all in the same boat needing help at the stadium? Although none of that makes sense to a logical individual, logic goes out the window. Try depervating a person three days without water and see what they will do, when they normally would not have done so...

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:53 | 2608141 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

So you're saying gold's not going to be worth anything in this crisis situation you're envisioning, yet people will still be killing for it 'because they're irrational'.  Then you illustrate your point by describing a situation where people in a desperate crisis situation chose to steal things with perceived value.  But somehow they won't be coming after you for your food, because they'll be so irrational from the hunger that they'll forget that it's food that they really want?

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 19:06 | 2608180 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

I should have prefaced that with the term "initially". Yes, initially, people will rob you if you have means, or perceived means. People steal worthless items all the time, whats your point?

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 00:27 | 2608947 Likstane
Likstane's picture

Take 2 cups of baking soda and a packet of grape kool-aid.  Mix together with a generous dollop of Icy Hot.  Throw in a few pre-1982 pennies for a coppery sheen.  Drop it in a vw hubcap and heat in a microwave for 10 minutes.  Presto!  Gold!  Make sure you wrap your microwave in wet towels first. 

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 02:17 | 2609078 object_orient
object_orient's picture

WTF? Dude, you owe me a new microwave

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 19:03 | 2608169 wretch
wretch's picture

Dude.  You have some real trouble thinking clearly.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 07:22 | 2609283 Element
Element's picture

 

 

Praetorian Guard "Well, lets look at another interesting study, Katrina and the demographic population that remained. Why, would they steal tv's, and other electronics, when no power existed? People are irrational - especially when things go south. Why would individuals rape and kill each other when they were all in the same boat needing help at the stadium? Although none of that makes sense to a logical individual, logic goes out the window. Try depervating a person three days without water and see what they will do, when they normally would not have done so..."

--

Nonsense, you don't know what you're talking about, you're just repeating the already disproven MSM fables, then pretending you're an 'informed' observer;

THe Katrina Helicopter Shooting NEVER Happened, and Other False Reports From the Storm

 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:47 | 2608131 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Good point!

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:40 | 2608110 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

You are not too far off. People that actually produce real goods will call the shots and they will accept real money in return. The black marlet and barter system would return. Life would be dangerous for a while thats for sure. The rich will be overrun by the masses. Their country club bullshit days would be over.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:01 | 2607959 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Hey Al are you watching corn lately? I took your advice and went out today and bought a shitload of pictures of food. Pretorian Guard that was the right call right?

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:04 | 2607969 runlevel
runlevel's picture

bazinga

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:03 | 2607970 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Good call, good call.  It's good to see that you're taking the appropriate precautions to guard against future shortages.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:06 | 2607984 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

My wife has a super colander which I will use to wash lettuce later. I will see if there is any gold byproduct that comes from it and will update asap.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:08 | 2608001 runlevel
runlevel's picture

LOL

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 21:05 | 2608476 graneros
graneros's picture

Did she get it from one of those TV specials?  I hope she acted quick enough to get in on the 2 for 1 special if you call now deals.  Yea I know she had to pay the extra shipping and handling charges but think of all that extra gold she's gonna make.  I gotta log off and turn on the TV so's I can buy one, maybe 2 if the deals still going. I'm gonna be rich, rich, rich.  In fact if I make enough gold salad I'll buy that really big super collander in Cern.  Hell I may even buy Switzerland.  Oh happy days. Thanks fonzannoon.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:04 | 2607974 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

You guys laugh all you want... food is going to be a big issue here in the short term...

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:06 | 2607987 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

I don't dispute that for a second.  I just don't see what it has to do with the price of gold.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:09 | 2608002 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

You're not paying attention...

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 22:08 | 2608660 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Tinfoil hat fucking doomer.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:12 | 2608004 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Pretorian no one on here would argue with you about food. I do believe there are a lot of people on here in the ag business and I believe that they will accept precious metals when the time comes for the food they produce. We can all argue about ratio's and price but all I give a shit about is that they are open to accepting one good for another. I want to own what they will accept.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:16 | 2608035 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

So when JiT shuts down due to complete credit collapse, people refuse to work for IOU's, and NOTHING is shipped or produced, (not including coming issues in energy, nor seasonal events - the perfect storm is coming, soon), or the lash back the global gov't will have to take steps to do to control the situation, barring all of these, you can still sit there and indicate that people will trade PM's for commods that are almost inaccessible? Have you stopped to think, place yourself outside the box, as to the environment when this all goes down? No one will give a rats ass about PM's... every example on here and elsewhere comparing previous collapses to current events are fallacies. Many, many different factors exist currently, with very little room for error, expansion, that did not restrain previous national emergencies. Like I said, if PM's are able to help you make some extra money, fine, I agree, to a point. If you think they are going to ride the storm, you are gravely mistaken...

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:20 | 2608051 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

If you are correct and it gets to that point my plan B is to go a few towns over where the wall street guys live and "have a talk" with one of them. It's possible it could end badly for them. I have a feeling there are a lot of people with the same plan B.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:29 | 2608082 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

Your plan B is a 3-6 hour window...

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:33 | 2608089 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Thats plenty of time.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 19:00 | 2608161 graspAU
graspAU's picture

You are correct. Total collapse and the metal will not trade. It has happened in the past, where PM's are not used for a very long time because they are considered invaluable, so people barter other things. PM's have a history of retaining value after chaos is gone and civil behavior has returned. If we hit a period of chaos for decades then yes, food, water, and other human simple pleasures will be in high demand and PM's will not mean anything until a new system is setup and accepted. Maybe after a generation or two has expired.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 20:32 | 2608383 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

An extreme shortage of necessities would make a coincides of wants even less likely and therefore the need for currency would remain.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 19:13 | 2608193 chubbar
chubbar's picture

The purpose behind holding PM's isn't to barter during the crisis, although that might be necessary for some. One should have all their immediate needs stored away. How long will the crisis last? Who knows, that is the big question. That being said, another currrency will at some point be introduced and many of us believe it will have to have a PM component in order to have any legitimacy following a collapse of this fiat system. So the purpose of holding the PM's is to maintain purchasing power through the crisis and into the next currency. I'd make sure you have a years worth of chow and some protection just in case things get a little wilder than you think possible. Surplus funds go into PM's AFTER all necessary items are purchased/stored.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 19:52 | 2608283 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

I agree, however, I believe the fallacy of your premise is assuming any post currency will have to be PM based. No one knows for sure. Hell, it could be a food/energy basket based currency for all we know.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 19:57 | 2608298 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

His premise is based on thousands of years of history. Yours is based on a pure guess. You may be right but his odds are slightly higher.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 20:10 | 2608329 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

You make me laugh. So because it was good yesterday, makes it equal tomorrow? Times are different, infrastructure is different, etc. Is mine based on pure guess?

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 20:18 | 2608353 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Let's see. The countries that are productive are buying gold hand over fist. Germans for example (and some others) are demanding gold as collateral to bail out the piigs and the piigs are refusing. Why is that? Why would Italy not sell all their gold tomorrow and be flush with cash?

I am glad I make you laugh. Based on your insanity if I did anything else I would get myself checked out immediately.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 20:01 | 2608303 chubbar
chubbar's picture

I only make that assumption because at a minimum a currency has to be divisible, convenient, durable and fungible. Food is not durable. Energy is not convenient. It is unlikely this type of backing would work out for new a currency. That being said, it isn't a lock that any follow on currency would be backed by gold although it appears definitely in the running now that it is being considered for tier 1 status.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:55 | 2608150 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

And what will the producers of food want in return? Food? Gold can be used as a medium of exchange for two parties that want to trade but only one has what the other currently wants. That is the roll of all money dude. 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 19:54 | 2608285 jumbo maverick
jumbo maverick's picture

My friend just turn the CERN on and make all the food you want. Problem solved.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 02:38 | 2609093 PiratePawpaw
PiratePawpaw's picture

Hahaha.....I bought farmland, food, guns, and tools FIRST.......I spent the rest on PM's...........

 

Opinions like this are a Direct Coorelation with what I just left in the toilet..........FLUUUUUUUUSSSSHHHHH.............

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:22 | 2607801 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

20% gold to cash. Maybe now 30%. That's it. Your done. Sit back and relax. Steal that you Wall Street crooks.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 19:00 | 2608158 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

plus fertile land, good water supply and skills that have been out of practice for 100 years  

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:21 | 2607802 TheCanadianAustrian
TheCanadianAustrian's picture

"Hyperdeflation" shouldn't be used in any setence. Unless you're legitimately worried that TPTB will start massively producing oil, food, and commodities at an exponential rate of +1000% a year in an attempt to hold on to power.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:30 | 2607826 12ToothAssassin
12ToothAssassin's picture

TPTB will stop at nothing including synthesizing finite resources. Bitchez.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:27 | 2607813 Rainman
Rainman's picture

If gold goes to 8300 fiatscos by Spring '15 I'll be signing into ZH from Monte Carlo....bitchez

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:30 | 2607825 doc_in_the_house
doc_in_the_house's picture

gold to sub $400

BEFORE it reaches $5k-$10k....at 10k will you be willing to take monopoly money or buy land? or buy 10 yr treasury @ 20%...or a COMBO of all?

looking at history when gold pumped from $200 to $800 = 10 yr @ 12%+ = good investment, of course this would require a change of the guard...= odummer out after his second dictatorial term.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:47 | 2607892 doc_in_the_house
doc_in_the_house's picture

those of you that have THUMBED me down:

1) either you are upset that i predict gold to sub $400....ok thumb me down and then when @ $300 you can cry

OR

2) you are offended that i called odummer a dictator....the antichrist....stupid cnbc which i watch like 5 minutes/week....mostly watch bloomberg of foxbusiness..like 2 hours/week....stupid cnbc said that odummer had signed an executive order giving him the power to FAST n FURIOUSLY STUPIDLY SHUT DOWN the internet....LOL !! freaking antichrist.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:49 | 2607902 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Sub $1400, yeah, maybe.

@ $400, there won't be any available for sale.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 23:16 | 2608812 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Correct.  NO WAY I am seeling any of mine.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 15:57 | 2610894 smiler03
smiler03's picture

One thing I don't quite understand, which I see TD mention, is "margin calls". As I understand it this is when Fiat has a bad day. This prompts dealers/traders/algos/midgets to sell gold at any price because they need more fiat to bail out their asses. Why shouldn't this get to be so desperate that gold could go to $400 over a longer period of time?

 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:15 | 2608030 IndicaTive
IndicaTive's picture

If you have to wonder, you really should spend some watching fight club before trying to participate.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 21:14 | 2608502 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Fuck you, that's why I thumbed you down.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:27 | 2607815 doc_in_the_house
doc_in_the_house's picture

i have a stupid question

does Tyler Durden originate all of these articles, does he just submits them?  DOES HE EVER SLEEP? I'm really amazed at all this detailed work and thorough research. 

I believe that we will see spx @ 1100ish before QE3.  QE1 = after massive sell off, near spx 666 right at odummer's door on March 2009.  QE2 after djia dropped back to 9600 from 11.2k.....QE3 wait for spx at around 1050-1125.

and then QE4 when?  too funny...but i'm sure the coming HYPERINFLATION and BANKRUPTCY won't be funny !!

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:51 | 2607910 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

There's more than one Durden.

Most of the articles are reposts by other content providers.

10% or so seem to originate from the Tylers.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:56 | 2607933 IndicaTive
IndicaTive's picture

My opinion: There is only one Tyler Durden, this is a fact. The sheer volume of analyses suggest that there are others that post under the moniker Tyler Durden. I envision it is as a newsroom of sorts, with THE Tyler, as editor, blessing off on everything posted under the byline. The sheer volume on interesting days pretty much assures me of this. Guest posts are labeled as such. When I first joined I read an article that I found interesting http://nymag.com/guides/money/2009/59457/index3.html and there are other readings available.

As to your other question(s): be patient, read comments. There are some really big brains here.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:41 | 2608114 CosmicDebris
CosmicDebris's picture

The articles that read: "Submitted by Tyler Durden" and not "guest post" sure do seem to come from one 'voice', when I read it.  Seems like one person to me, for the most part.  Usually two different writers will not sound so alike.  imo.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 19:08 | 2608184 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

agree, the style and personality

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:44 | 2608121 TheCanadianAustrian
TheCanadianAustrian's picture

Did you actually try Googling "Tyler Durden"? It's a fictional character, silly, played by Brad Pitt. Hence Brad Pitt's face in all the posts.

Now that we've established that none of the original articles use the author's real name, why would you assume that all articles are written by the same author?

Have you ever noticed that the words "we at ZeroHedge" are used frequently? Did you think it's just one author, and he means "the royal we"?

Have you ever noticed that there are different recurring themes in different posts? For example:

  • "Chart Porn" Tyler
  • "Sloppy grammar" Tyler
  • "Daily wrapup" Tyler
  • "Tons of tags attached to the article" Tyler
  • "Likes to use plenty of technical jargon" Tyler

And none of these themes ever seem to overlap.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 23:23 | 2608826 knukles
knukles's picture

Brad Pitt is played by Tyler Durden in all those movies.  He uses the name Brad Pitt to assure his Anonymity

 

Yes, I'm yelling, again.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:27 | 2607816 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

He who hath the gold maketh the rule.

-Anonymous
  Inscription on plaque in  Armand Hammer's bedroom.

 

 

 

 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:30 | 2607820 kito
kito's picture

 ....the fundamental shape the gold industry is in, is substantially healthier today than it was back then. Strong balance sheets, high free cash flows, a substantial increase in margins, low debt levels, and rising dividends all speak in favour of the sector....

 

the governments with a penchant for nationalizing the mining industry are just salivating over the aforementioned........

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:40 | 2607863 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

I wish I could argue.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:43 | 2607870 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

The fundamentals this speaks of are bullshit. I know for a fact some of the big movers (mining companies) sheets and they are pissing the money away, high grading, etc. Don't believe what this person is telling you. Many miners are up shit creek without a paddle.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:46 | 2607881 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I also believe some of the miners are deciding to stockpile the metal and not sell it (especially silver) at these levels. Maybe they are finally listening to Sprott.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:58 | 2607946 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

You are truly a well rounded guy - friends at CERN, inside knowledge of the big miners, impressive.  You should introduce the miners to the guys at CERN, they probably would quit mining if they knew the physicists were getting ready to set up a gold factory.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:07 | 2607992 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

Sounds like someone pissed in their diaper. Just because you don' thave the right "friends" or in a specific industry does not mean the rest of us scrape the barrel or swirl the toilet...

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:13 | 2608021 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Again, I'm having a hard time following your 'logic'.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 00:45 | 2608983 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

it's special logic 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:17 | 2608039 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

So Pretorian, maybe sometime in 2013 when gold is around 2k and Ron Paul stands up at the Fed meeting and yammers on about gold and the gold standard Bernanke is going to laugh like a mad man and a bunch of guys dressed like scientists are going to bring out a supercollider and hit some buttons and tons of gold are going to fill up the room as Ron Paul passes out in amazement?

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 20:47 | 2608431 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

 

 

Simon says, "Make gold!"

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bG8evwQiSWk

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 16:05 | 2610922 smiler03
smiler03's picture

Oh no. Please not the 29th February again, "Ron Paul stands up at the Fed meeting and yammers on about gold".

I was by chance watching that speech live with a window on the gold price. Fascinating but horrifying day. 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 20:33 | 2608366 Paul Atreides
Paul Atreides's picture

You don't have any friends, I think you sit in your moms basement collecting 75 cents a post. Anyone with that lack of understanding of what CERN does or how miners operate definitely does not have friends in the business or any business for that matter.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:44 | 2607878 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

why don't they nationalize the telecoms and healthcare companies first seeing everyone is a fatass walkking around texting on their iphones on their way to get their diabetes treatment?

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:54 | 2607928 kito
kito's picture

a government can nationalize the mining/oil industry, effectively owning the product in the ground, which maintains value regardless of whether they dig it up....nationalizing a business that doesnt involve an a valuable inert rock or liquid is a whole 'nother ball game that many governments know is a losing proposition...you cant sit on a telecom company doing absolutely nothing and expect an increase in value of the underlying service...the value of the service only exists because of the of the functioning company....

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:57 | 2607942 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

fair enough, what about medicine? Is that not maybe the most valuable commodity their is?

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:21 | 2608055 kito
kito's picture

medicine is not a commodity if its not produced...its not as if cipro is sitting in the ground waiting to be dug up, all the while becoming an increasing valuable asset.....in fact, tomorrow brings a competing medicine that will likely be more effective, rendering what the govt has as useless or dated......doubtful some third world country will bother dealing with pharma........probably alot easier for the government to pay for it and put price controls on it than actually trying to produce it effectively........better for them to stick with oil and copper.......

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:41 | 2608099 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Medicine is a commodity in terms of it being something people need. When people need it it has value. If Government owns the producers of things people need what difference does it make if it feeds you, provides energy or treats an illness? I was not referring to the developed world by the way. If you play the chess game out they will nationalize too.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 19:07 | 2608132 kito
kito's picture

govts want to profit right now, they want items that are in "their ground" which are becoming more scarce and more valuable....i assume in an emergency situation if there was a shortage of any item the govt could nationalize it, but it likely wouldnt bring them any profit if it means they have to produce it from scratch...governments are terrible business owners (obvious), so why bother with technical fields way out of their league?.........not going to happen unless its a matter of life or death for the purpose of maintaining civil order.........

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 20:04 | 2608316 madmax1965
madmax1965's picture

fonz, that was some funny shit!  Thanks! 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 20:12 | 2608336 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Thanks dude. If you can't laugh at this shit every once in a while then we really lost.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:32 | 2607829 falak pema
falak pema's picture

soooo, how big is bigger?....

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:33 | 2607834 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

R.S.: Have faith, buy gold.

Forgot the "Amen"

Oh mighty Arkleseizure, thou gazed from high above. And sneezed from out thy nostrils, a gift of bounteous love. The universe around us emerged from thy nose. Now we await with eager expectation, thy handkerchief, to bring us back to thee... [/Humma Kavula]

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:41 | 2607865 MunX
MunX's picture

"I do not expect an imminent paradigm shift, this is practically impossible for regulatory reasons."

I do.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 19:16 | 2608202 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

The author also believes that central banks will continue to exist... rotflmao.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 19:38 | 2608255 lucidwanderer
lucidwanderer's picture

might want to at least consider the possibility.  we're too one sided to maintain equilibrium.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:42 | 2607868 Stock Tips Inve...
Stock Tips Investment's picture

It seems reasonable to think that gold prices continue to rise. Especially if the central banks of major countries of the world continue trying to manipulate the interest rate. A low interest rate and adverse economic scenario is ideal for the price of gold.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:47 | 2607887 kito
kito's picture

assuming the hyperinflationistas/currency destruction theorists prove correct, i dont understand how these gold "experts" can then put a value on what gold should be in terms of dollars....impossible......so if gold goes parabolic....and the dollar actually distintegrates, there is no dollar value to assess gold......and if the dollar was destroyed, as in kaput, it means gold couldnt be actually be in a parabolic phase, as it would, in theory, actually be replacing the fiat currency from which it was being valued in its parabolic stage, and therefore not be viewed as an investment gone wild, but as a practical means to replace the worlds currency reserve.........

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 17:55 | 2607929 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Kito I completely agree with everything you just said and I think people owning gold thinking they will be the new king of their town the day that ever happened would be unhappy to find out that they at best saved their ass and at worst have a bullseye on it.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:22 | 2608058 kito
kito's picture

true dat..............

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 19:24 | 2608215 chubbar
chubbar's picture

Well there you have it. The two choices we all have to make. End up saving your ass by holding excess funds in PM's and potentially becoming a target because of your success at salvaging your earnings OR be comfortable knowing you don't have a target on your back as you join the rest of the folks digging through the dumpsters.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 04:23 | 2609154 au_bayitch
au_bayitch's picture

I notice those who own au and ag also have an investment in brass and lead

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 19:35 | 2608247 lucidwanderer
lucidwanderer's picture

good points.  implications resting on status quo logic as we now see are rendered obsolete quickly when the status quo is disturbed, relative as that is.  the period between replacing fiat (blatantly absurd equivalance) with an actual measure of investiture is pretty long though...this has been tried many times before albeit not successfully in recorded history. 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 18:23 | 2608059 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Don't parachute into a body of water while carrying gold unless it can be easily and quickly detached.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 19:15 | 2608203 lucidwanderer
lucidwanderer's picture

well there's a spark of genius worth paying for (sike).  repression leads to delayed problems.  bond markets manipulated.  gold manipulated.  derivates gone wild.  all shocking conclusions.

read the ancient wisdom....abandon profit...forsake covetous ways.  the sage knows when enough is enough.  the glutony of our world is designed for one reason only and that it to make you want more than enough and that is the fundamental error which has led us to this point.

 

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