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Sentiment: Grinding Higher On Momentum
Following a brief dip in the overnight session, yesterday's momentum transitioning out of stocks and into bonds has continued, with futures now at overnight highs 2.5 pts above closing. As Bloomberg's cross asset dashboard and analyst TJ Marta write, most stocks and bond yields are higher on the Fed’s upgraded economic outlook, ebbing of EU debt concerns vs Chinese equities, AUD, NZD, commodities lower after China warned of need for continued policy restraint. The VIX has again tumbled to fresh mutli-year lows, touching on 14.80, at this rate threatening to enter the single digits and wreak havoc with swaption trader models. Bad or negative news is now roundly ignored, such as the just released 5th consecutive drop in the MBA mortgage applications index, which slid 2.4%, following a 1.2% drop: what was that about a housing bottom again? Also ignored was the miss in the January European Industrial Production which rose 0.2% on expectations of a 0.5% increase, following a -1.1% drop in December. Finally Spanish bank borrowings soared to €152.4 billion in February, from €133.2 billion, even as the second LTRO hit. In other words - of course risk will be back: every single Eurobank balance sheet is now flooded exclusively with taxpayer money. Who cares if that is gambled and lost: more will simply be issued (in exchange for even more worthless collateral) just as the ECB intended. As for the primary driver of risk on-ness, rotation out of bonds - best of luck with that as the US has to find buyers for $1 trillion in bonds in the next 9 months, especially as the Fed is running out of 2 Year bonds to swap for 30 Year pieces of paper, and as Twist expires (never mind the $2.0 billion DV01 on the Fed's balance sheet).
Some more from Bloomberg:
- Fed’s upgraded economic outlook boosted sentiment in many markets
- Most Asian equity indexes moderately to significantly higher; EU indexes modestly to moderately higher, weighed by disappointing Euro Zone production data; U.S. futures post small gains
- Bund yields significantly higher Treasury yields higher, significantly so at long end, with 2012 ranges broken
- EU sovereign yield spreads to Bunds mostly modestly tighter
- EUR/CHF +0.4%, 3.1 std. devs., with cross rebounding towards top of 2-month range
- EUR/CHF +0.4%, 3.1 std. devs., with cross rebounding towards top of 2-month range
- Chinese Premier Wen said curbs on property market must remain because prices remain far from reasonable levels
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The signs are there. DOW 15,000 here we come! Back up the truck! Powder's dry Bitchez!!
Politicians play a role and FED enables it to play bigger and bigger role in rigging markets as they please. Now it can be seen that Presidential elections has become a short term target to appease the "sheeple" and get a second term, with FED and TBTF as powerful tools.
Silver will start to go up before elections but gold will be suppressed till the last moment. That is also what I found out making PM prediction charts, someone was then asking what the hell presidential elections has to do with silver and gold prices-now we start to see that may be a lot. See the charts here-November 2012 definitely stands out.
Silver 2011-2017
Gold 2011-2017
It starts to make a lot of sense that 2012 Presidential elections may be a turning point when financial reality finally pops out sharply- as the concerted possibilities to manipulate equity and PM markets are very real- as we all see, especially in the last weeks and days-but at some moment markets have rearrange the absurdities.
'what was that about a housing bottom again?'
It's coming... soon... very soon... we promise.
Yes it is expected to arrive with the failure of the dollar. When dollar reaches zero the value of all debt reaches zero...and so does ever asset measured in dollars- including homes.
Full ahead.
LMFAO...what a fucking joke.
Comment from Italian Treasury today:
*CANNATA SAYS ITALY GOVT BONDS AMONG SAFEST INVESTMENTS
Now where can i change my PM's to italian bonds? Fookin LOL!
talk abt complacency...
so overnight risk is fully ignored?
http://www.cnhedge.com/thread-3003-1-1.html
http://www.jinrongbaike.com/
What risk? Uncle Benny's got your back!
Holy shit, for you war mongers on here
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2bMfrixJyWc&feature=related
yes, I've been up all night drinking bourbon!
See the guy pulling the chockes out that spent all night pre-flighting and fueling...checking the hoses and cleaning the cockpit?
Goldman doesnt give a shit about him either.
ah, thanks bro, it amazes me how the US gov bombs other countries into the stone age to bring them to democracy, go figure, and bottoms up!
The blowoff top for Apple is going to be amazing to watch.. Now trading at $575!
More bullish stuff from zEurope:
March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Spanish banks borrow 152.4 billion
euros in Feb, Bank of Spain says on website.
• rises from 133.2 billion euros in Jan
• figure marks record amount after LTRO
Then Spanish tax revenues (change YoY):
=================================
Jan.
2012
=================================
---------
Total Tax Revenue -12.9%
Personal Income Tax -4.5%
Corporate Tax -86.9%
VAT -63.4%
Special taxes -7.9%
Other taxes -7.2%
---------
Insane!
Gold is cheap today, bitchez! I bought some last night and I will buy more today.
down another $40 this morning
best of luck with that as the US has to find buyers for $1 trillion of bonds in the next 9 months.
Any guesses as to how much the Fed's balance sheet increases over the next 9 months?
I think the fed is buying all this stock garbage and pumping the market.
IMO.
Its all BS...
The president needs a rally.... the fed gives it to him. . . what goes up must come down.
Golly...really?
If the FED is pumping the Market they never have to get out. If they get a Margin Call they just print more Money and you and I pay for it.
"The VIX has again tumbled to fresh mutli-year lows, touching on 14.80, at this rate threatening to enter the single digits and wreak havoc with swaption trader models" Since when did VIx become an input to swaption trader models? Looking at the movement in STIRS over the last two days would have me guessing Swaption vol is probably bid.
State tax revenue collected in California in February, 2012 reportedly dropped 22% from the year-ago period:
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/03/13/exodus-california-tax...
excerpts:
"State Controller John Chaing continues to uphold the California Great Seal Motto of “Eureka”, i.e., 'I have found it'. But what Chaing is finding as Controller is that California’s economy as measured by tax revenues is still tanking. Compared to last year, State tax collections for February shriveled by $1.2 billion or 22%."
"...personal income tax collections fell by $325 million, or 16% versus last year."
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Surely this is bullish...
#winning with a tan and chardonnay!
The little thing call bollinger bands say price went a little too far and too fast on the daily chart.
I want to believe!
Never underestimate the replacement power of equities within an inflationary spiral.
BTFD and prosper.
good news is that stocks are advancing
bad news is that a loaf of bread is heading to $5.00.
But don't worry - the banks are in great shape.