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Sentiment Nearing Record Bullishness

Tyler Durden's picture


While we are bombarded with talking heads telling us that there is money-on-the-sidelines and everyone is so bearish with the market climbing a wall of worry, the reality - as we see across multiple asset classes - is that investors are overweight risk assets (e.g. credit investors overweight IG and HY and mutual fund cash at record lows), near-extreme levels of bullishness (AAII and Put-Call Ratios), near extreme levels of non-bearishness (AAII), and yet credit investors believe markets are overvalued (though still buying).


In Equities, the AAII Bull/Bear Ratio is at +1 sigma from historical norm and near its high 'turning point' levels...


and at the same time, credit investors are net overweight risk assets and see it as the most overvalued in years...


and the advance-decline line in corporate credit (high-yield especially) is at extreme levels once again...


So apart from all that - yeah, everyone is bearish!!


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Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:18 | 2812373 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture


Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:29 | 2812448 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture


Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:33 | 2812467 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

I think part of this is he continued stupification of America. People (similar to myself) used to work hard at various forms of analysis similar to this articles premise to gain an edge.

I said fuck the market a while back but I know there are others who haven't given up yet and this unlimited QE is another form of baffle them with bullshit. They will look at sentiment and in the old days would sell. Now they see $40 billion a month dillute their net worth and they then have to second guess everything they have learned. They then ask, Can I really afford to sell with that much excess money coming down the pipes?

I don't know but it sure makes it hat to give clients a real answer or determine what to doing you only manage your own money.

It's all so screwed up. I'm amazed the complex machine hasn't totally failed.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:35 | 2812487 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

yes well the sheeple and muppet-fucks have been corralled by QEi and now they are used to it all so it seems normal, since they are sheeple-muppet-fucks = pavlovian training takes little time and zero consciousness when just depressing the P over and over keeps the high going, and trigger is being done for you so just sit back and get fucked up more at over.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:55 | 2812591 delacroix
delacroix's picture

 all it took was a flood of cold water, to erase pavlov's conditioning

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 16:17 | 2812691 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

This guy Larry Yun from a group called NAR is extremely bullish on housing, it portends well for the economy from what i've heard it's like green shoots on your lawn before the full flowering of economic recovery... is it really time to get back into the market?

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 16:22 | 2812706 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

you are joking right? RIGHT?

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 16:45 | 2812801 PiratePawpaw
PiratePawpaw's picture

Oh no. Not Aknowledging Reality says this is a great time to buy.

Anyway, I have this bridge. I'll let you have it cheap cause I have this gambling problem.........

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:42 | 2812525 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

This time STFT. Coz NO MORE QE, not now. not until net recession. 


Fed cannot lose face on open ended QE not working so will delay, cannot jeapordise printing more, cannot risk inflation... this MBS they can just about get away with...  IMHO

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:14 | 2812375 tallen
tallen's picture

Buy high, sell low! Everyone on CNBC keeps telling me stocks are cheap, how can they all be wrong!!? Haha

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:19 | 2812404 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

It is not equities going up that suprises me. It's commodities going down and treasuries going up that's the suprise....or maybe not in this FUBAR world.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:30 | 2812454 Peachfuzz
Peachfuzz's picture

I can't help but think a little tungsten bar action in manhattan and the Saudi rumor mill are steering skynet a little....

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:30 | 2812455 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

exactly. welcome to the inverted parallel perversion universe that you have been churn sucked into for years.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:49 | 2812559 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

Increasing commodity oversupply being priced in......for many commodities, beware. 





Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:21 | 2812408 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

This tells me we are set for a crash.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:22 | 2812415 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Sorry, crashes have been outlawed.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:56 | 2812607 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

But so have recoveries above 3% p.a. FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE  

Coz if Growth heads towards/above upper central tendency of FEd GDP forecast it WILL tighten. 

Monetary policy IS conditional.      

Open ended QE?   As long as people are bending over its open ended..... once they start streightening up, fed will tighten.


What has come to pass is a FED attempt at TOTAL steering of the economy onto long run growth path....   they want "the great moderation" back...



Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:31 | 2812463 kaa1016
kaa1016's picture

No crash. At least not until after the election, or right before depending on who you ask.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 16:38 | 2812770 whotookmyalias
whotookmyalias's picture

Depends on what you mean by crash.  Headlines earlier said "Oil Tumbles to 6 week low"  LOL - 6 week low is nothing and surely isn't "tumble".

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:21 | 2812412 Conman
Conman's picture

Lol bearishness. Havent seen bearishness since 08' what a bunch of bullshit. The Fed underestimates the greed on wall st. First sign of real trouble and all these fuckers will liquidate and forget QEternity.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:26 | 2812434 saycheeeese
saycheeeese's picture

climbing the wall of worry on thin air....  the Everest is certainly attractive but there is a timing for reaching the top and dangers are many

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 16:04 | 2812636 GernB
GernB's picture

You can tell sentiment is too bullish when people on CNBD talk about climbing a wall of worry, but if you notice, they only occasionally trot out someone bullish, like their some kind of circuis freak. Then they go straight to probing questions about whether they've changed thier mind or if their really serious about the market falling.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:28 | 2812446 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

I'll tell you what's bullish.......
My wife's hard core Christian, Romney loving boss, who just found out from Bank of America, that his 1.2 million dollar mortgage that he stopped paying two years ago, is having the principle reduced to $350,000 at 2% interest and no penalties!! That's what's fucking bullish!! He is dancing around his office screaming "Jesus answered their prayers and miracles do happen" and leaving early to celebrate his good fortune at the Country Club!!!
(and trust me, i wish I was making this fucking up, but I'm not)

No fucking mention of the $800,000 the taxpayers just picked up for him or that it is Obama's program that just "saved" his ass! No mention that he put his 9 catholic children thru collage with those loans, plus bought boats, second houses, and donated to every republican cause under the fucking sun over the last ten years!! Nope Jesus fucking did this!!!

I'm sick to my fucking stomach at how unfair this society has become and just how fucking hypocritical it has really become!!! So if I hear another fucking cock sucker republican talk about redistribution of wealth, and job creators are the righteous chosen ones, I'll fucking come to your house with a baseball bat!!! (and no I'm not a cock sucking democrat either, so don't start with that bullshit)


Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:32 | 2812470 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

If it makes you feel any better, he didn't write that loss off, someone else did it for him.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:40 | 2812517 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Hey HelluvaEngineer-


If we ask nice do you think he'll tell us what he really thinks?

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 16:07 | 2812660 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

Now thats MBS QEternity for you, lots more of it to come - the FED "wealth effect". 

And i said it before QE, its coming and banks gonna fall over themselves to write more crap to flip to Fed. 





Wed, 09/19/2012 - 16:10 | 2812670 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

Oh my god!!! Half the people on ZH, have a problem with me, being outraged about this!!!!
-10 down arrows
This should be 100% agreed arrows up, my god this says everything about our Country in one post! And this is an "enlightened" crowd compared to most blogz!

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 16:23 | 2812715 singsing
singsing's picture

You would have been better to speak to the injustice.  The religious or political affilliation was irrelevant.  Everyone understands the language of injustice.

That aside, please, please, please tell me you made this up!  It can't be true!!!  Why even try anymore in such a shitty, fucked up world.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 17:09 | 2812877 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

I disagree, the religion and politics IS part of the story, because of the hypocrisy involved!!! It's one thing to take an $800,000 handout and call it a "lucky" byproduct of the Presidents program of mortgage bailouts, and be thankful for both your luck and that the program existed for you!!!!

It's another fucking thing to say, it's a "miracle" that god blessed on your family for being good Catholics, AND saying you don't believe in handouts and Romney has it 100% right, that those free loading entitlement folks are the problem in America, and we need to cut "those" prople off, then take a fucking $800,000 handout yourself!!! It's unreal!!!

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 22:36 | 2813716 singsing
singsing's picture

I feel the outrage RL.  Sadly, too many will quickly abandon their principles for an 800k handout and they will come in all stripes and colors.

Too depressed by your story to argue.  We're on the same side in any event.  Been paying my mortgage for 20 years and this stuff makes me puke.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 16:26 | 2812726 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

i think your post was outstanding. Maybe things would better if more people showed emotion rather than.. ehh. after all i got my friends to text all day in my Iworld. Thats what TPTB want. nice passive distracted NFL luvin idiots

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 16:37 | 2812767 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

I can't feel emotion about it anymore. If I did, I'd give myself a heart attack. It is what it is...

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:37 | 2812496 marz929
marz929's picture

Maybe he stopped paying his mortgage so HE COULD PAY YOUR WIFE.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:59 | 2812620 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

Please, my wife bills her hours and generated 5-8x her salary yearly, so sorry, that's bullshit!

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:38 | 2812497 I Am Not a Copp...
I Am Not a Copper Top's picture

If it also makes you feel better, that douche must report $850,000 in taxable income. If you rat him out, maybe you can get 30% of that.  So stop your bitching and get yours!

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 16:02 | 2812631 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

Nope, that's wrong too, not in California, and he already checked on that, and because this money was part of the BofA class action settlement in CA, no reportable income either!!! More love from the 2008 bailouts!!

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:44 | 2812526 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

I up voted you.

I love the libertarian Christians. Most major world issues seem political or monetary but often have rots in the luceferian underground leaders. I don't buy into all that religion hocus pocus but I know many in circles of power thinks its real.

If parents had to wait until their child could think for itself, versus shoving a long held family tradition down the child's throat from birth, I argue religion would be dead in a generation. Two tops to flush out the final gullible idiots.

Imagine, no religion too. No seriously a world without lunatic Muslims blowing everything up, greedy Jews, and holier than thou Christians thinking they are truly good people even though they often support the wrong guy IMO. Ask yourself, if Jesus were around today would he really vote do a hate filled Republican?

Whatever. I'm rambling. I like your post.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 20:01 | 2813377 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

i know what ur talking about....i used my own common sense and realized what religion was awhile ago....i struggled with whether to tell my son my thoughts or wife was a lukewarm catholic...the straw....when he made his first confession and he was made to feel guilty for his sins...he was 6...what i over a very short period of time, i  told him he has never sinned and it was a crock of shit....he is 17 now and we have a very honest relationship and he is not afraid to tell me everything....although, trust me ,sometimes i cringe but i wouldnt have it any other way....oh and he owns his on silver also...

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:51 | 2812565 jay28elle
jay28elle's picture

I don't know why the hell you're pissed about this - you have every right and opportunity to do the same thing.  Go get yourself a 1.2 gazillion dollar mortgage, stop making payments and negotiate a better deal.  

Shit, man, I stopped being pissed off at people a long time ago that are taking advantage of the rules that our system has in place.  

I bet his guy is pissed that someone with a 5 million dollar mortgage did this same thing and so he figured he would too.  It's all relative - I bet some homeless guy is pissed off at you cause you have nicer boxes in your basement than he has as his home.

Stop complaining and start taking fucking advantage of what's available...

(btw, I don't like this any more than you, dude)

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:57 | 2812613 adr
adr's picture

I got my mortgage from a local bank that keeps the loan on the books and doesn't sell it off. If I stop paying I'll get the foreclosure notice in six months. My aunt got a loan from the same bank, lost her job, and had six months to start paying the loan again in full. She couldn't do it and got the notice on the seventh month.

I guess the rule is to make sure you get a mortgage from a TBTF bank.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 16:54 | 2812834 jay28elle
jay28elle's picture

"I guess the rule is to make sure you get a mortgage from a TBTF bank."

I don't think there are too many people out there that dont know where to go for the "really good deals".  Switch it over for a grand, or so, and play the game.  Those of us that do will come out smelling like a rose, while the rest will simply have a clear conscious and a lot less money.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 18:53 | 2813220 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

No your exactly right, $800,000 to those scumbag criminals at Countrywide, Merrill, BofA, Goldman and rest is a piss drop in a bucket to their 100's of millions in after tax bonus and salaries they kept after the 2008 bailouts.....your right!

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 16:07 | 2812658 GernB
GernB's picture

He probably pays more in taxes than he gets back even with the write down on his house. Before you get mad at him, think about whether it is his money that's actually paying down his mortgage.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 23:44 | 2812851 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

Really!!!! I hope your kidding, because millions of other business owners in CA pay taxes too, Including me!!

And actually I know this clown, he's my wife's boss, and I can assure you I've paid as much in taxes with my two companies as this fool, so you can take that pollianish bullshit and stuff it!! What... Do you think Im some poor ass with my hand out and that's why you would say something that stupid? My two businesses, that I've owned and built myself, grossed more then this fools over the last 5 years, and I'm still outraged and It still makes me sick!!

You just sound like another asshole from the Country Club crowd, who is the chairman of the chamber of commerce political action committee, making excuses for his lame ass, hypocritical buddies, who talk big shit at the bar of the Country Club and then go run up millions in debt, and want the rest of us to pay for it!!! But your fucking job creator and taxpayers right, so you can do whatever the fuck you want, screw principles, honesty, fairness, and all that other " yesterday shit"!!! Its about your fucking greatness today right, ........where's my bat?????

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 16:39 | 2812772 Overfed
Overfed's picture

Fuck. Maybe I should stop paying my mortgage? I only owe well under $100K, prolly not enough to make it worthwhile. Cocksuckers.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 17:00 | 2812859 jay28elle
jay28elle's picture

What's stopping ya?  So you ruin your credit for a few years, but save 100k.  There are still lots of credit (even fairly cheap) for those with piss poor credit.



Wed, 09/19/2012 - 16:45 | 2812781 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

I can't say that I'm surprised.

The truth is we're all dependent on Uncle Scam's magic money machine. Romney can take that 47%, add the other 53%, and shove it all right up his ass.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 16:55 | 2812839 max2205
max2205's picture

You gotta pay Romney or obuckobama some bucks to get that deal. Shhhh don't spread it around. He's middle class you know

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 21:55 | 2813624 Jstanley011
Jstanley011's picture

You kiss your mama with that mouth?

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 23:49 | 2813862 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

Don't worry, my mama is a grown women, she can handle it, she raised 4 boys, and sometimes things are soooooo outrageous, they need a little linguistical emphasis!!!!!

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:28 | 2812447 geewhiz190
geewhiz190's picture

all the EW guys who have been waiting since january for "wave 3" to begin have ALL started looking up with a new "main count" that takes the DJIA about 1500 points higher. in other words, if it's gone up its going higher, if it's gone down its going lower

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:31 | 2812462 not fat not stupid
not fat not stupid's picture

AAII is an obsolete organization.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:59 | 2812621 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

tis not, tis a good Sheeple tracker, especially when correlated with other data.


Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:34 | 2812480 marz929
marz929's picture

Overvalued is a meaningless concept in a ZIRP environment. Its just simple math.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:41 | 2812519 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture


And, since we all know that one man's overvalued is another man's buying opportunity, as long as the latter man has a printing press and a fat finger (LOL), is there any reason not to think equities won't continue on their QE-ZIRP moon shot?

At this point, I'm thinking that bullets and bombs won't even bring down the markets.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:37 | 2812500 Dermasolarapate...
Dermasolarapaterraphatrima's picture

"There's never been a better time!"

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:41 | 2812506 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

just bought some AMZN at 262 don't y'all be haters now...i'm already up 50 cents...wooo hoooo

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:40 | 2812516 russwinter
Wed, 09/19/2012 - 16:01 | 2812627 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

RiskMetrics-feed their algos into a lot of algos

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:43 | 2812528 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Bernanke trying to improve unemployment by buying MBS is like me trying to increase the number of white wines in my cellar by buying cases of Cabernet Sauvignon and Barolo.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 16:13 | 2812683 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Or, by digging a deeper cellar.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:53 | 2812576 Seal
Seal's picture

I don't think the top is here yet!


"Historical indicators are improving enough that this week’s stock lull might represent a pause before a possible return to 2007 highs, technical analyst Louise Yamada said Tuesday on CNBC."

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:54 | 2812583 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

The masses are asses.  

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:57 | 2812601 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

So does this mean the Fed is the last "greater fool"?

<Last one in is must clean up the mess.>

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 15:56 | 2812602 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Have they lured the retail investor back into the casino or is this money trapped in 401K's and pensions that will 'ere long be flushed down the toilet again by TPTB?

They did it in 2000 and again in 2008, how many suckers are left (despite one being born every minute)?

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 16:11 | 2812672 adr
adr's picture

I was contemplating dropping $10k into FB when it fell below $18. I would have made a decent return. My plan was to follow the full retard market and buy under $18 and sell at $24. Rinse repeat.

However I decided that I would rather just not play the game at all and concentrate on trying to keep my company afloat, so I can make real money from real labor.

It may be stupid to actually practice Capitalism. But I dream a dream of a real functioning economy.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 17:23 | 2812930 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

adr - what we have had for the last 5 years...maybe NOT capitalism !

It is full retard statism ! Money printing and deficit Federal spending (and State level) is not anywhere near capitalism. 

This is what socialism and the subsequent soft tyranny has wrrought.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 01:22 | 2817016 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Functioning economy to return when Jon Corzine is in an orange jump suit and the Bernank is teaching at a community college.

Until then, best of luck!

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 16:03 | 2812641 adr
adr's picture


It's so great you can't ever lose. Buy it and retire in five years. At the average rate of up $100 a month when the stock is climbing, you won't be able to spend the money you make fast enough!

Don't forget about Amazon either. You don't need to make profit for your stock to make new all time highs. In fact let profit go negative, THEY'LL MAKE IT UP IN REVENUE!!!!


2012 the year of Peak Retard

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 16:11 | 2812671 obejoyful
obejoyful's picture

People look back at this and say that society did go full on Retard.  This is just after 10 years of the internet bubble and 5 years after the real estate bubble.  

You cannot make this stuff up.  My kids will ask, why were they buying treasuries at 1% with that kind of debt load and how did AMZN hit $230 a share when they were losing money. 

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 16:24 | 2812718 adr
adr's picture

I know a head software developer at Amazon. I can't use the site because it reminds me how scatterbrained she is. Navigating Amazon is exactly like trying to figure out where she was going when she was telling a story.

The last time I saw her I tried to get her to give me someone's name high up at Amazon to talk with them about the hundreds of marketplace vendors selling stolen and counterfeit product. Product that is destroying my ability to sell product.

Try having a conversation with a retail buyer that says, "Why is your product on Amazon for $9.99 when I pay $15 and sell it for $35." They aren't very happy when you tell them that all the product on Amazon is counterfeit, even though it looks the same and the reviews on the site all say how great it is that you can buy the product for $10 instead of paying $35 at Target.

I eventually got to an upper manager in the sales department at Amazon. They told me that it isn't Amazon's responsibility to police individual vendors. Amazon works as a portal and isn't liable, just like UPS can't be held liable for shipping a box from a person that doesn't contain what you paid for.

I said, well yes but Amazon processes the payment and the item is bought off your website. That makes you liable for the claims made on your site that the product being shipped is an authentic product.

I'm working on a massive lawsuit with a major law firm. We are looking for other companies that have been harmed by Amazon to join in. This thing could hit billions upon billions in damages.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 16:51 | 2812823 obejoyful
obejoyful's picture

AMZN April  2013  PUTS

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 16:08 | 2812663 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

Nothing whatsoever has changed, we are just picking up a little speed on the way to the scene of the crash. Buy gold.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 16:12 | 2812676 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

TA DOESNT F%%$ING MATTER!! how many times are we gonna go over this tired discussion?????? The fed and obummer have destoryed any market. Obliterated it. Destroyed free markets.. when of if that ever comes back get back to me whats "overbought" market has been overbought for a year.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 17:03 | 2812866 max2205
max2205's picture

Douche, it's been oversold 3 times in 2 years. You fuckers got to learn to buy the dip in a bull market and sell the rips in a bear market. Indexes only though.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 16:39 | 2812773 imbtween
imbtween's picture

it's not so hard to make money when everybody else is so sentimentally retarded.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 16:49 | 2812810 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Do the old indicators matter anymore?

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 17:10 | 2812883 willien1derland
willien1derland's picture

Of course Wall Street records record Bullish(it) levels - OPM - Other People's Money - the MOTHER's MIlk of Wall Street - funnel bonus money to campaign & lobbyists to obtain tax deductions & ensure continued addtional funding by 'owning' political mechanism (Democrat/Republican does not  matter whoever is easiest to own) - and rename this nefarious cycle "The New Normal"

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 17:45 | 2813015 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Well are the markets overbought relative to infinity ?

When Romney opens up a 5 pt lead on Obama in the swing states, only then do I aver that markets will experience a meaningful correction (5 to 10%).

Buy on the rumor, sell on the fact.

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 17:54 | 2813041 RSBriggs
RSBriggs's picture

Won't happen with Obama's media in charge of publishing the polls.  Obama will be up 15 in the polls by the week before the election.  Never mind that 'rats will be over sampled by 18

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