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Is September 20 Greek Default Day?

Tyler Durden's picture




 
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Sat, 09/17/2011 - 14:59 | 1680165 Cman5000
Cman5000's picture

Let's get this party started ...

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 15:02 | 1680171 machineh
machineh's picture

Okay, see ya at 4:20!

Oops, make that 9-20 -- we're on Greek time!

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 16:33 | 1680430 Michael
Michael's picture

Hats off to Dr. Marc Faber for calling the PIIGS disaster and coining the acrynm.

Dr. Marc Faber: PIIGS are going to be Slaughtered; January 13, 2010

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIJkArWvqu4

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 16:37 | 1680445 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Green for documenting the history lesson.

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 21:11 | 1680828 Shocker
Shocker's picture

I believe you are spot on. For the Past weeks now there has been debate, Greece default, no default..

Everyone is pretty much near default its just who wants to be the first one

 

 

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 01:32 | 1681368 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Reminds me of a flock of penguins waiting to get up the nerve to jump into the sea, because they KNOW that a leopard seal is waiting for them...

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 12:24 | 1682010 markmotive
markmotive's picture

Short Canadian dollars, short Aussie dollars, short Chinese large caps?

Is this a way to profit from a Greek tragedy?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/294309-the-less-obvious-ways-to-profit-f...

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 19:04 | 1683109 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

Excellent piece.

====

Time For Europe’s Bond-Burning Party

Jeff Nielson

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/european-sovereign-debt-cant-we-all-just-net-along#comment-1681867

 

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:24 | 1683519 franzpick
franzpick's picture

Time for Becky to tell Warren what to do when the euro bond wide-on appears.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:52 | 1683573 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/199555.html

World Economic Forum's 2011 Annual Meeting concludes in China

In the northern Chinese coastal city of Dalian, the World Economic Forum's annual three-day summer conference concluded. As planned, the event attracted well over a thousand political and business leaders and academics, from over 90 countries to attend panel discussions, workshops and brainstorming sessions on how to deal with the biggest challenges facing countries in the developing world.

 

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 22:53 | 1683574 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

Greece must Bow before China's Fake Ass 1,200+++% Leveraged Renminbi becuase they have not faked thier GDP by building 7 - 12 empty cities a year, yet.. LOL! <-- yet! LOL!!

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 23:49 | 1683642 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HrUToRy7vNk&feature=related

Inside Story - Debt and divisions in the Eurozone

Uploaded by on Sep 18, 2011

What threat do disagreements between Eurozone leaders pose to resolution of the European debt crisis?

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 08:23 | 1683080 Shocker
Shocker's picture

The numbers suck, and this is just for Jobs. So far nothing has changed we only have gotten worse.

 

 

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 16:41 | 1680456 Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

^ Daniel Vernet (24 April 1997). "L'Allemagne au coeur du débat français". Le Monde. http://www.lemonde.fr/cgi-bin/ACHATS/260035.html. "que l'argot communautaire a affublés d'un sobriquet peu élégant dans sa signification anglaise : « pigs », pour Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain."

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 16:52 | 1680483 Michael
Michael's picture

But Faber added an extra "I" and made it famous with pinpoint accuracy didn't he?

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 16:58 | 1680501 Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

One for the Doc.

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 17:05 | 1680513 Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

Mine was green for admitting the acronym was older.

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 18:25 | 1680670 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Somebody let me know when it's time to shout "Opa!" and slam down a seven star Metaxa.

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 20:56 | 1680882 oogs66
oogs66's picture

it's always time for that!

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 10:58 | 1681832 captainscotty
captainscotty's picture

Thanks Michael for reminding us that there are people out there that see what is coming and are bold enough to speak the truth...:-}....Look back to 2009

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=loa92ZG1KV8&list=FLIztbh6TmkyM-ddhaaGU-rg...

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 06:31 | 1683865 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

I was about 80% thru the interview when it got pulled <as Larry Silverstein would say>!!  CNBC just made it unavailable?!?

Yes Marc Farber is awesome, but what about Tyrone in Missouri with those questions?

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 16:56 | 1680496 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Did someone say 420??????????????????????

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 17:58 | 1680623 Captain Benny
Captain Benny's picture

Its a pretty blunt statement that the S&P is going that low...

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 23:55 | 1681256 xtop23
xtop23's picture

They're going up in smoke

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 17:08 | 1680521 Which is worse ...
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists's picture

Greece will schedule its default for the 14th month of the year.

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 16:32 | 1680427 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

Funny how the market continues to celebrate there bailout, as if something has been fixed. This is more gold and silver positive than the mainstream media can handle!

 

http://silverliberationarmy.blogspot.com/

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 20:04 | 1680800 HAL 9000
HAL 9000's picture

Yes, I will operate the on- board systems of Discovery. There is a launch window in 31 days, when Earth is in the proper position. There is enough fuel on board for a low- consumption route that will enable Discovery to return in 28 months. This will not present a problem.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 19:57 | 1683188 westboundnup
westboundnup's picture

Welcome to another edition of THUNDERDOME!

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 15:02 | 1680170 xtop23
xtop23's picture

Default

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 15:42 | 1680260 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

I'll believe when it happens. Greece is shit, but they don't want that domino to hit the next one.

It's exhausting following the bullshit

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 16:11 | 1680359 X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

no kidding, gandhi

can we get this over with, please....

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 16:35 | 1680441 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

My guess is that they continue to string it out for as long as possible.  They have been able to string this out for YEARS longer than I would have ever guessed.  No one has the guts to make the calls for painful steps.

But, delaying the denouement has two interesting features:

1)  The price to be paid will be HIGHER the longer this goes on.

2)  The longer the delay, the more time we have to prepare.

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 16:55 | 1680488 X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

.

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 17:36 | 1680586 macholatte
macholatte's picture

....they don't want that domino to hit the next one.

Bingo!

The longer the delay, the more time we have to prepare.

governments too 

Premise: Greece is going to default.

If we accept that premise, then the game is to prepare for it which, I believe, is what the EU-PTB are doing. The Swiss are holding up the Euro via Fed cash injections and the EU banks are getting bailed out via more Fed cash injections so that by the time GD-Day arrives, the collateral damage will be localized. The Greeks will survive it as will the EU. I'm more concerned about the USA so willing to be run over by the EU bus. Just MHO.

 

 

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 17:50 | 1680612 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

DCRB: I have a couple of friends and family members who have gotten through the "normalcy bias" and are now in your category 2).

Helps that the hopium either has worn off or there is not the higher dose available.

- Ned

{and your 1 will not really be paid by the incumbents, bankstaz, other ... er ... (OK.  I get to say this) pigs swilling at the trough.)

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 15:42 | 1680177 Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

I hope they've done the math right.

Could get very ugly indeed.

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 16:34 | 1680435 knukles
knukles's picture

What math?  Even Timmah can count to Zero.

So is a CDS on Greece for when they run out of money really a "Zero" Hedge?

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 17:02 | 1680508 Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

Could be.

There is so much of that in existence maybe the truth is that it is all worthless.

Which of course it is.

That, I think, is why "they" have continually avoided any default.

It will be that the counter-parties are empty vessels.

 

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 18:44 | 1680697 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Exactly.

As a whole, triggering CDS will likely benefit banks as I can find banks that say they own protection against positions, but find more hedge funds are uninvolved or have sold protection to fund shorts in other sovereigns.

Who are the counterparties that are going to have the cash to fund all these CDSes? Don't they amount to trillions? I know (in theory) a lot of it should nett out, but still, it only takes one payer to default and it could get very ugly...

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 19:17 | 1680749 1984
1984's picture

The counterparty is the taxpayer.  Duh!

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 20:19 | 1680823 Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

let me know when you discover where the "taxpayer" has $15,000,000,000,000 hidden away.

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 21:35 | 1683415 Bring the Gold
Bring the Gold's picture

You forgot two 0's. 1.44 Quadrillion before mark to fantasy changes in reporting by BIS.

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 22:41 | 1681120 Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

Ultimately, yes.  That's the standard set by the Fed and Treasury Dep't in 2008.  

The TBTF banks sell huge amounts of effective insurance policies on high-risk financial instruments with insufficient capital to cover those policies.  (In fact, they sell the insurance to anyone even if they don't own said high-risk financial instruments....akin to buying fire insurance on your neighbor's house.) The banksters thus roll in the profits and fat bonuses until the gig is up and then the insurance fraud becomes obvious and those doing "God's work" threaten global financial Armageddon if the taxpayers, or at least future taxpayers via deficit spending, aren't saddled with the burden of paying off the underfunded CDS contracts.

It is so fraudulent and criminal as to be almost unthinkable, yet this is what's been taking place.  Of course, the next time the dominos start to fall, the global financial system will implode of its own rotten weight, and there's no central banker jawboning and deceit that will stop the collapse because the fraud is just too obvious to be denied by 'rational investors' (lol) but again. (Although our species is capable of some stupendous self-delusion.)

JMHO.

BTW, as noted elsewhere, I recently blogged that we are in a seasonal window for a potential panic, so September 20th or thereabouts for a Greek default is distinctly possible in the historical context of autumn panics:

http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2011/09/autumn-panic-update-will-ci...

As for 2011, we just passed the Harvest full moon Monday night and are now into the Elul 15-30 window which is equivalent to September 14 to 28 this year. Thus, we are now in a window, in terms of both monthly and annual seasonality, when man as a species is prone to suffer acute panic events. The October window, which is more apt to see a panic climax, runs from October 13 to 28 on the Gregorian calendar.

Obviously, the ongoing crisis in the Eurozone and potential for a Greek default and/or the failure of a major European bank like BNP Paribas could act as a Lehman-style trigger for a global financial panic and the next leg down in what many are already calling a new Great Depression (the primary concern of Robert Prechter and Elliott Wave International).

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 21:14 | 1683362 metastar
metastar's picture

That we would burden our citizens with the financial sins of banks truly is unthinkable. This is tyranny of the highest form!

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 23:10 | 1683596 Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

Would?  

$14+ trillion to-date and counting: http://motherjones.com/politics/2010/01/real-size-bailout-treasury-fed

Meanwhile, not a single prosecution: http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/guest-expert/2011/09/14/william-k-black-phd/why-nobody-went-to-jail-during-the-credit-crisis

What's unfolding is a caricature of stereotypes and criticisms of what's wrong with "Capitalism", i.e., pure, unadulterated greed, corruption and criminality running amok over society and governance.

Little do the sef-deluded creatures realize....God REALLY IS watching...

God's Work?

Sun, 09/18/2011 - 21:36 | 1683416 jdelano
jdelano's picture

TBTF. The banks that fuck?

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 01:27 | 1683725 Placerville
Placerville's picture

Too big to fuck?

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 20:16 | 1680820 Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

Let's say there exists $1.5 Quadrillion of derivatives.

That's not outlandish. $1,500,000,000,000,000

1% of that is $15,000,000,000,000

Let's hope that the worst credit-worthy 1% can actually meet their obligations.

 

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 20:58 | 1680890 oogs66
oogs66's picture

cds on greece is under 5 billion euros...it is covered...that is not going to be where the problem comes from...just like it wasn't on lehman...mind you, stocks held in reasonably well immediately after lehman

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 20:43 | 1680862 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

"It will be that the counter-parties are empty vessels."

Already known to the banksters and the reason no Greek default will occur, except under some definition that does not trigger the CDS protection payments. 

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