Is September 20 Greek Default Day?
From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors
Is September 20 Greek Default Day?
If Greece is going to default, September 20th seems to be as good a day as any. Actually, it is far better than most to be GD-Day.
Two big bonds, the 4.5% of 2037 and the 4.6% of 2040 both have coupon payments due that day, totalling 769 Million Euro. So if the IMF wanted to avoid letting another billion euro go down the drain, September 20th would be a good day to do it. The IMF seems to have delayed approving another tranche for now, so Greece must already have the money for this payment?
The Fed Scheduled their meeting for 2 days. It now starts on September 20th. Maybe a co-incidence, but what better way to be prepared for new emergency policies?
CDS "rolls" on the 20th. On the 21st, all Sept 2011 CDS will have expired. My guess is that banks own more protection than they sold to the September 20th date, so defaulting while those contracts are still valid would be a net benefit to the banking system. As a whole, triggering CDS will likely benefit banks as I can find banks that say they own protection against positions, but find more hedge funds are uninvolved or have sold protection to fund shorts in other sovereigns.
We just finished the big finance minister meeting. They can all return home, brief their staff and be prepared for Tuesday. Prior to D-Day there were lots of last minute preparations to make sure everyone was on the same page and as prepared as possible. Why not before GD-Day?
Papandreou cancelled a trip to the U.S. And Venizelos mentioned that Papandreou had to be in Athens for "Initiatives". If you ever wanted some hand holding from your leader, it would be at a time of default. He would have to be in country to calm things and mention all the deals he put in place last week on the conference call.
None of the headlines from Poland or comments from the IMF seem particularly positive. I can't even find the customary all is good, we are working together, this was a time of great progress, boiler plate statement having been released. Maybe they are waiting for Monday to let the world in on all the joyous progress. I suspect they are more likely to wait on bad news than good news. They have often tried to control bad news over the weekend. Maybe they have decided it would be better to deal with it real time.
There is still a chance we see some bold new initiative or plan, but as I wrote last week, every step and virtually every comment made, for the past 8 days, is consistent with preparing for a default.
(27 votes)
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Let's get this party started ...
Okay, see ya at 4:20!
Oops, make that 9-20 -- we're on Greek time!
Hats off to Dr. Marc Faber for calling the PIIGS disaster and coining the acrynm.
Dr. Marc Faber: PIIGS are going to be Slaughtered; January 13, 2010
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIJkArWvqu4
Green for documenting the history lesson.
I believe you are spot on. For the Past weeks now there has been debate, Greece default, no default..
Everyone is pretty much near default its just who wants to be the first one
Reminds me of a flock of penguins waiting to get up the nerve to jump into the sea, because they KNOW that a leopard seal is waiting for them...
Short Canadian dollars, short Aussie dollars, short Chinese large caps?
Is this a way to profit from a Greek tragedy?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/294309-the-less-obvious-ways-to-profit-f...
Excellent piece.
====
Time For Europe’s Bond-Burning Party
Jeff Nielson
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/european-sovereign-debt-cant-we-all-just-net-along#comment-1681867
Time for Becky to tell Warren what to do when the euro bond wide-on appears.
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/199555.html
World Economic Forum's 2011 Annual Meeting concludes in China
In the northern Chinese coastal city of Dalian, the World Economic Forum's annual three-day summer conference concluded. As planned, the event attracted well over a thousand political and business leaders and academics, from over 90 countries to attend panel discussions, workshops and brainstorming sessions on how to deal with the biggest challenges facing countries in the developing world.
Greece must Bow before China's Fake Ass 1,200+++% Leveraged Renminbi becuase they have not faked thier GDP by building 7 - 12 empty cities a year, yet.. LOL! <-- yet! LOL!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HrUToRy7vNk&feature=related
Inside Story - Debt and divisions in the Eurozone
Uploaded by AlJazeeraEnglish on Sep 18, 2011
What threat do disagreements between Eurozone leaders pose to resolution of the European debt crisis?
The numbers suck, and this is just for Jobs. So far nothing has changed we only have gotten worse.
^ Daniel Vernet (24 April 1997). "L'Allemagne au coeur du débat français". Le Monde. http://www.lemonde.fr/cgi-bin/ACHATS/260035.html. "que l'argot communautaire a affublés d'un sobriquet peu élégant dans sa signification anglaise : « pigs », pour Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain."
But Faber added an extra "I" and made it famous with pinpoint accuracy didn't he?
One for the Doc.
Mine was green for admitting the acronym was older.
Somebody let me know when it's time to shout "Opa!" and slam down a seven star Metaxa.
it's always time for that!
Thanks Michael for reminding us that there are people out there that see what is coming and are bold enough to speak the truth...:-}....Look back to 2009
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=loa92ZG1KV8&list=FLIztbh6TmkyM-ddhaaGU-rg...
I was about 80% thru the interview when it got pulled <as Larry Silverstein would say>!! CNBC just made it unavailable?!?
Yes Marc Farber is awesome, but what about Tyrone in Missouri with those questions?
Did someone say 420??????????????????????
Its a pretty blunt statement that the S&P is going that low...
They're going up in smoke
Greece will schedule its default for the 14th month of the year.
Funny how the market continues to celebrate there bailout, as if something has been fixed. This is more gold and silver positive than the mainstream media can handle!
http://silverliberationarmy.blogspot.com/
Yes, I will operate the on- board systems of Discovery. There is a launch window in 31 days, when Earth is in the proper position. There is enough fuel on board for a low- consumption route that will enable Discovery to return in 28 months. This will not present a problem.
Welcome to another edition of THUNDERDOME!
Default
I'll believe when it happens. Greece is shit, but they don't want that domino to hit the next one.
It's exhausting following the bullshit
no kidding, gandhi
can we get this over with, please....
My guess is that they continue to string it out for as long as possible. They have been able to string this out for YEARS longer than I would have ever guessed. No one has the guts to make the calls for painful steps.
But, delaying the denouement has two interesting features:
1) The price to be paid will be HIGHER the longer this goes on.
2) The longer the delay, the more time we have to prepare.
.
Bingo!
governments too
Premise: Greece is going to default.
If we accept that premise, then the game is to prepare for it which, I believe, is what the EU-PTB are doing. The Swiss are holding up the Euro via Fed cash injections and the EU banks are getting bailed out via more Fed cash injections so that by the time GD-Day arrives, the collateral damage will be localized. The Greeks will survive it as will the EU. I'm more concerned about the USA so willing to be run over by the EU bus. Just MHO.
DCRB: I have a couple of friends and family members who have gotten through the "normalcy bias" and are now in your category 2).
Helps that the hopium either has worn off or there is not the higher dose available.
- Ned
{and your 1 will not really be paid by the incumbents, bankstaz, other ... er ... (OK. I get to say this) pigs swilling at the trough.)
I hope they've done the math right.
Could get very ugly indeed.
What math? Even Timmah can count to Zero.
So is a CDS on Greece for when they run out of money really a "Zero" Hedge?
Could be.
There is so much of that in existence maybe the truth is that it is all worthless.
Which of course it is.
That, I think, is why "they" have continually avoided any default.
It will be that the counter-parties are empty vessels.
Exactly.
As a whole, triggering CDS will likely benefit banks as I can find banks that say they own protection against positions, but find more hedge funds are uninvolved or have sold protection to fund shorts in other sovereigns.
Who are the counterparties that are going to have the cash to fund all these CDSes? Don't they amount to trillions? I know (in theory) a lot of it should nett out, but still, it only takes one payer to default and it could get very ugly...
The counterparty is the taxpayer. Duh!
let me know when you discover where the "taxpayer" has $15,000,000,000,000 hidden away.
You forgot two 0's. 1.44 Quadrillion before mark to fantasy changes in reporting by BIS.
Ultimately, yes. That's the standard set by the Fed and Treasury Dep't in 2008.
The TBTF banks sell huge amounts of effective insurance policies on high-risk financial instruments with insufficient capital to cover those policies. (In fact, they sell the insurance to anyone even if they don't own said high-risk financial instruments....akin to buying fire insurance on your neighbor's house.) The banksters thus roll in the profits and fat bonuses until the gig is up and then the insurance fraud becomes obvious and those doing "God's work" threaten global financial Armageddon if the taxpayers, or at least future taxpayers via deficit spending, aren't saddled with the burden of paying off the underfunded CDS contracts.
It is so fraudulent and criminal as to be almost unthinkable, yet this is what's been taking place. Of course, the next time the dominos start to fall, the global financial system will implode of its own rotten weight, and there's no central banker jawboning and deceit that will stop the collapse because the fraud is just too obvious to be denied by 'rational investors' (lol) but again. (Although our species is capable of some stupendous self-delusion.)
JMHO.
BTW, as noted elsewhere, I recently blogged that we are in a seasonal window for a potential panic, so September 20th or thereabouts for a Greek default is distinctly possible in the historical context of autumn panics:
http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2011/09/autumn-panic-update-will-ci...
That we would burden our citizens with the financial sins of banks truly is unthinkable. This is tyranny of the highest form!
Would?
$14+ trillion to-date and counting: http://motherjones.com/politics/2010/01/real-size-bailout-treasury-fed
Meanwhile, not a single prosecution: http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/guest-expert/2011/09/14/william-k-black-phd/why-nobody-went-to-jail-during-the-credit-crisis
What's unfolding is a caricature of stereotypes and criticisms of what's wrong with "Capitalism", i.e., pure, unadulterated greed, corruption and criminality running amok over society and governance.
Little do the sef-deluded creatures realize....God REALLY IS watching...
God's Work?
TBTF. The banks that fuck?
Too big to fuck?
Let's say there exists $1.5 Quadrillion of derivatives.
That's not outlandish. $1,500,000,000,000,000
1% of that is $15,000,000,000,000
Let's hope that the worst credit-worthy 1% can actually meet their obligations.
cds on greece is under 5 billion euros...it is covered...that is not going to be where the problem comes from...just like it wasn't on lehman...mind you, stocks held in reasonably well immediately after lehman
"It will be that the counter-parties are empty vessels."
Already known to the banksters and the reason no Greek default will occur, except under some definition that does not trigger the CDS protection payments.
So if the IMF wanted to avoid letting another billion euro go down the drain, September 20th would be a good day to do it...
Those coupon payments are going to be made.
Price. A fair price. That's not what you say it is, and it's not what I say it is... It's what the market will bear. Now there's people - and I know 'em - who'll pay a lot more than $25,000 for a healthy baby. Why, I myself fetched $30,000 on the black market. And that was in 1954 dollars. If Greece don't pay, the market will... [/Leonard Smalls]
Don't be deceived by those astronomical figures! They create it by punching a few numbers follow by a series of zeroes.......abacadabra.....it turns into debt...ooobs, I mean money!
Yeah, money the unborn have to pay. I think the unborn should sue their parents for selling them into slavery!
.
is it just me, or are all of these 'experts' suffering from 'zero stroke'.
(look it up on wikipedia, youll laugh.)
Now that's clever!
you like that......
i cant believe that one fell right into my lap..
i thought all the ZH'ers would love it....
It's one way to get everyone to upgrade their computers to 64-bit processors.
Scientific notation is the cure for the next zero stroke affliction.
OMG!
Zero Strokers that's what this community should be called.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_stroke
Now that is some professional comment-leaving. +1 for the Raising Arizona reference. Cinematic perfection. Turn to the Right!
Can't get blood out of a turnip. Let her go bankrupt and face the inevitable consequences instead of living in constant denial. The deflationary spiral will begin!
It's gonna happen like bear sterns or Lehman. They just won't let this go without a fight and sure as hell won't be on a specified day. If anything another statement, all is well, working blah blah and market rallies on hope and euro rises. It's happened every fuckin time.
One day (soon) we'll get the news it's far too gone and it will collapse.
But all the euro leaders are taking political damage for supporting this deadbeat country and the only reason to tie themselves with a sinking ship is to try to contain it and avoid contagion.
Perhaps Gandhi, but there is a chance that there will be yet another magical stick save. Maybe this time it will be from Hugo Chávez and it will rain skittles once again.
http://oi52.tinypic.com/2li7mkh.jpg
It's one thing to let Lehman Bros. bite the dust, which richly served the interests of Goldman whose c*cksucking ex-CEO Hank Paulson, an American traitor of the highest order, decided would die when he decided not to save it, versus letting a Euro-Sovereign default, since it creates a precedent within the Eurozone. Not sure it will be allowed to happen. I think the ECB goes with some sort of TARP move that allows for a "re-structuring" of Greece debt that amounts to a default, but perhaps skirts the definition of default under the zillions of CDSs issued by Euro and USA banks alike on Greece and other PIIGS debt.
Paulson is number one on most lists. He is the worst traitor ever in America. In his mind he was saving us from a disaster but he only made it worse. He helped his friends.
bullish for Goud und zilber ?
Beans & Lead too......
Thanks for the insightful information ZH. While I can discover this information elsewhere, yet again, some brilliant incarnation of Tyler illuminates facts and answers to questions I had not the intelligence or foresight to consider pondering.
das cuz yer a dawg ...
spot on dragin, their reading of the tea leaves is what makes this site....
my hat is tipped...
And the lack of censorship.
Fuck You. [testing] [testing]
Yep.
Oh yeah? OK, milord, so what are the first two rules of Fight Club?
You know better than to talk about fight club.
Most peculiar of all is that the best nugets can often be discovered in the comment thread. Use the net while you still can. Yeah, I'm serious. Do you really think they won't learn anything from this failure? Really?
Imagine were you to be a looter. What lesson would you learn? What would your response be?
Its about survival. We had a state senator over Friday. He encouraged my 18 year old Son to be optimistic in his desire to become an air traffic controller. His precise words were " that is likely an excellent private sector opportunity"
It really is 'our' sector VS. 'their 'sector.
Truth motheryouknowitoryoudon't'ers.
Freedom or enslavement. Two choices. It is one or the other.
Nobody is truly 'kinda' free. Nobody is 'kinda' a slave.
Internment is repression, Repression is slavery. I'm white and poor. Guess that makes me the new Black?
The talk has been mostly about what banks get hurt and if gold goes up and how to make money on the event.
This does not look deeply enough.
The real question is what appears on news broadcasts from the street, because it is ONLY what happens in the street that will decide Italy, Portugal and Spain. The two options are no rioting with gunfire and killings, especially of politicians and bankers vs full on rioting with snipers on rooftops targetting bankers and politicians.
If there is no rioting and life in Greece looks the same on the news broadcasts, then Spain, Italy, and Portugal can default very safely. They would be irresponsible not to. Why pay?
If there are widespread killings of elites, then Spain, Italy and Portugal will be funded by every imaginable EU entity to hold the snipers off Brussels and Berlin and Paris and Madrid and Lisbon rooftops.
So far there has been no blood shed by elites and it's doubtful there will be. The sheeple will continue to graze. The deadbeats will be forgiven and relieved of their burden. The mechanism for all this is being configured as we speak.
JMHO.
Slight missing of the point.
The point is there is no escape. You either get blood, or you get an avalanche of defaults.
I would make note of the fact that whenever there is a riot, protest or demonstration, TD is right there with a link to a live feed. I would not call that ignoring the sentiment above.
OT - The Occupy Wall Street protest in NYC now on web
http://anonops.blogspot.com/
Those hippies should focus more on their own lives than causing ruckus which will lead to absolutely nothing besides 'cool fb photos' they can show to their hipster deadbeats.
Damn right! They should take whatever Wall Street does to them, and just lean forward and enjoy it!
Twilight Zone stuff...I clicked on the video and a commercial from Metro PCS started.
9/18/2011 or 9/24/2011 or 9/25/2011 they like doing this shit on weekends, see Argentina and Mexico.
I agree.
To do it mid-week would cause to much panic.
Could be why Papa turned the plane around.
Got a call from x y or Z and was told the game is up.
If he really wants to show the zEuropeans how upset he is, he should set himself on fire.
Opa!
Venizelos (MinFin) was a competitor to G-Pap for the leadership of PASOK party. Now that there is growing opposition to the new property tax and the Troika is calling for additional measures, Venizelos wants to cover his ass and put G-Pap in the frontline. It is widely expected in Greece that an address will be made by G-Pap on Monday or Tuesday asking for the peoples' understanding for the new taxation since the country is in a dire situation. He will also ask the unions to behave more "responsible"...
The truth is that the government is toasted anyway since the pressure for declaring early elections is mounting... Irrespictevely of an imminent or not Greek default.
D-E-F-A-U-L-T
Find out what it means to "G"
D-E-F-A-U-L-T
See how happy we all can be... !
Give it to me
Give it to me
Sock it to me.
Sock it to me.
Sock it to me.
+1 - 'Retha.
Wonder what Michael Burry is doing..