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Is September 20 Greek Default Day?
From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors
Is September 20 Greek Default Day?
If Greece is going to default, September 20th seems to be as good a day as any. Actually, it is far better than most to be GD-Day.
Two big bonds, the 4.5% of 2037 and the 4.6% of 2040 both have coupon payments due that day, totalling 769 Million Euro. So if the IMF wanted to avoid letting another billion euro go down the drain, September 20th would be a good day to do it. The IMF seems to have delayed approving another tranche for now, so Greece must already have the money for this payment?
The Fed Scheduled their meeting for 2 days. It now starts on September 20th. Maybe a co-incidence, but what better way to be prepared for new emergency policies?
CDS "rolls" on the 20th. On the 21st, all Sept 2011 CDS will have expired. My guess is that banks own more protection than they sold to the September 20th date, so defaulting while those contracts are still valid would be a net benefit to the banking system. As a whole, triggering CDS will likely benefit banks as I can find banks that say they own protection against positions, but find more hedge funds are uninvolved or have sold protection to fund shorts in other sovereigns.
We just finished the big finance minister meeting. They can all return home, brief their staff and be prepared for Tuesday. Prior to D-Day there were lots of last minute preparations to make sure everyone was on the same page and as prepared as possible. Why not before GD-Day?
Papandreou cancelled a trip to the U.S. And Venizelos mentioned that Papandreou had to be in Athens for "Initiatives". If you ever wanted some hand holding from your leader, it would be at a time of default. He would have to be in country to calm things and mention all the deals he put in place last week on the conference call.
None of the headlines from Poland or comments from the IMF seem particularly positive. I can't even find the customary all is good, we are working together, this was a time of great progress, boiler plate statement having been released. Maybe they are waiting for Monday to let the world in on all the joyous progress. I suspect they are more likely to wait on bad news than good news. They have often tried to control bad news over the weekend. Maybe they have decided it would be better to deal with it real time.
There is still a chance we see some bold new initiative or plan, but as I wrote last week, every step and virtually every comment made, for the past 8 days, is consistent with preparing for a default.
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"The connection between socialism and nationalism in Germany was close from the beginning. It is significant that the most important ancestors of National Socialism-Fichte, Robertus, and Lassalle-are at the same time acknowledged fathers of socialism. While theoretical socialism in its Marxist form was directing the German labor movement, the authoritarian and nationalist element receded for a time into the background. But not for long.
From 1914 onward there arose from the ranks of Marxist socialism one teacher after another who led, not the conservatives and reactionaries, but the hard-working laborer and idealistic youth into the National Socialist fold. It was only thereafter that the tide of nationalist socialism attained major importance and rapidly grew into the Hitlerian doctrine. The war hysteria of 1914, which, just because of the German defeat, was never fully cured, is the beginning of the modern development which produced National Socialism, and it was largely with the assistance of old socialists that it rose during this period."
-- F Hayek
I dont care about Greece defaulting or not.
The only thing I am interested in is the DOW surge 400 points on Tuesday on BB announcing a multi-trillion QE3. And I also want CNBC to announce QE4 , so DOW will surge another 400 points for the week. Useless to say I will be fully invested !
So the market will fly higher on Monday, just more bull.... more bailouts etc.etc.etc.
Fuck the people with jobs and also the ones without jobs
Is this why Geithner went to Europe? This shit has to end Greece then the Europe and the World bring it on and put a end to it.
Bernanke pissed off most of the rest of the world (other than Wall St.) last August when he embarked on QE2. Germany in particular was vociferous in its disagreement. Reason, they believed the only beneficieries would be the squids of this world and that the rest would pay the price through higher inflation particularly in commodities.
Just consider what has happened since the beginning of QE2 in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya due to rising food prices, 1 war and 3 government collapses, in other words CHAOS. This is why QE3 is a massive gamble and IMO Germany wants nothing to do with it, hence Geither gets sent home with his tail between his legs and a message for the FED. Don't fuckin do it!
Greece will likely not be allowed to fail simply because the Euro politicians and the ECB know the consequences for their own countries. However they are not willing to foot the bill entirely by themselves so what's happening now is all a bluff as the Eurocrats are determined to extract the maximum they can from the bond holders (not only banks) and have them pay their share of any bailout of Greece in order that they themselves be saved.
QE3 can only make WW3 all the more likely. What a fucked up world we live in.
OK but why should I be interested what happens in Tunisia or Egypt ?
I dont see QE3 as a gamble, it is necessary. DOW will surge and if you have the right positions, you can make lots of money !
You shouldn't because you are fucking idiot whose gaze stretches only as far as your navel.
we will spek again next Friday who is the fucking idiot. I expect DOW to hit 12K next week already after QE3 and possibly QE4 announced !
Why should I fucken care if some Archduke gets shot in Sarajevo?
Xamax, three pieces of advice:
1. It's spelled "Xanax" with an N, and I suggest you stock up for next week when your portfolio is crashing.
2. It's spelled "speak", for example "the users of zero hedge have no desire to hear blindly bullish ass clowns speak their minds."
3. You must be lost, this site is zero hedge, not "marketwatch". You might want to run a virus checker as your browser appears to be acting screwy.
That is all.
Like I said, you are a fucking idiot. DOW to hit 12K Friday? How about DOW to hit 9K!
I don't understand people. So many people bitching in the country and world about how fucked up the system is and wish for it's collapse.
The thing that I don't get is these same people continuously vote these douchebags into power. I mean just recently we elected Obama with astronomical approval rating and now he's creeping into the annals of history as the worst President ever. Shit with black teen unemployment at 50% he still garnishes an 90% approval rating among that demographic....talk about a society with a severe case of Munchausen syndrome.
If you don't like the state of things stop voting in assholes.
(and for you conspiracy theorists- I know I know all elections are rigged and we have no vote, please spare me from the Alex Jones hyperlinks)
@ bob_dabolina
You are completely correct when you imply that we-the-people are also partly responsible for this, not just stupid .gov and banksters.
WE DID ELECT the SOBs into power. Say all you want about the two partys being pawns of the elite (IMO, to a degree true, but oversimplified), it is partly our own damn fault too.
Want some real change? Vote (and contribute to) for Ron Paul!
EDIT:
bob_d, we agree on so much, I am curious as to why you do not like gold...
It's not that I don't like gold. It's that I don't like the price action. I added a chart, and name an asset in history that continues on a trend like the one posted indefinately...it looks overbought no matter how I look at it
My opinion is just one in a sea of many
http://tradeonfire.blogspot.com/2011/09/charts-for-thought-gold.html
The gold price is tracking the US Gov debt. It doesn't look overbought on that measure.
I've looked at that argument and find it to be an illusory correlation.
I don't want to get extended on the topic right now but the US debt rose from just under $3T in 1990 to almost $6T by 2000 and during that decade the price of gold went....down from roughly $420 to $250 by Sept 1999
The last four years in where gold has exploded the dollar hasn't changed much. The $dxy is currently around 77, or the same level it was trading at on 10/24/2007. In that time period gold has gone from $740 to $1923 (recent high)
In a lot of ways, you're spot-on. But, try looking up the graphs that show the value of gold in relation to other commodities, and (provided you see the same thing I did) you'll note that while gold is in a bull market right now, it is not extreme by any metric. The best example I found was oil priced in gold- you get a little bit more oil for an ounce of gold, but not much. The graph shows a line that could almost have been drawn with a ruler on the ten year chart, and it ascends at about a 6 degree angle for the past decade.
Hardly what I would call irrational pricing- it's just that there is a tangible disconnect between the paper world and the physical one. If you price physical goods against physical goods, the markets look far more rational.
Bob--you seem like a bright guy but I think you've got a case of "technical myopia". Get your nose out of the charts for a minute. Stand back and see the forest for the trees. As to these problems being largely our fault, you're right (though I for one was never fooled for a moment by a certain smooth talking community organizer with a messianic super ego) we've been asleep at the wheel. It is our country, not "theirs". The power is lying there on the ground for the masses to pick up, but thus far TPTB have provided a nice palliative life consisting of jalepeno poppers and trips to the mall. Only when the local chilis runs out of funion topped twice baked chicken potato quesaditios and there's nothing but blank empty black showing on the flat screens will the zombies arise to demand blood. we need a catalyst--unfortunately that won't come until things have already gotten really really bad...Hence why so many here are eager to get on with the collapse that will lead to rebirth..
The last four years in where gold has exploded the dollar hasn't changed much. The $dxy is currently around 77, or the same level it was trading at on 10/24/2007. In that time period gold has gone from $740 to $1923 (recent high)
The explanation is simple. DXY compares USD to other fiat currencies which are staying more or less even with each other, but are all debasing against gold.
Remember, these fiat currencies have no intrinsic value. They're supported solely by people's confidence in them. Their devaluing against gold shows people are losing confidence in them.
Gold is the best measure of people's confidence in a currency. It's been a natural monetary standard for thousands of years.
Bankers publicly talk down about gold, but privately they love it and hoard it. They use all manner of tricks and con games to talk people out of their gold so they can get it at a cheap price way below market value.
I fully anticipate another such con game here in America where the government tries to outlaw private ownership of gold in some way.
I would have said Stockholm Syndrome but otherwise not too terribly far off the mark.
However, I would say to you that the exact reason behind Obama being elected is the fact that a lot of the voting public felt he WAS different and he utilized this belief to pull the wool over the eyes of the voting public.
But why did the people feel that way?
Because they are a bunch of uneducated lemmings obssesed with Jersey Shore, American Idol, and Lady Gaga. Think about that, she's one of the most popular performers of the time and she showed up to an awards ceremony wearing meat.
If the people did two ounces of due diligence they would have seen straight through his bullshit. You have to be able to read and have the capacity of critical thinking to conduct due dilligence http://www.zerohedge.com/news/its-official-america-now-dumb-bag-hammers
What are we supposed to do when the only choices we are given are ASSHOLES?! They're all in bed together! Wake up Bob!
Two words
Ron
Paul
Greece defaulting on the 20th is a much better pill to swallow than SP below 1K (that was my predicition for justification of QE3 fuckery). And yet the perfect storm would be confluence of both those events and then some...........but the shit is so rigged that one bogus essentially already sealed and deliverd months ago default is enough justification......until it all splatters the fan the the great purge is on......
Greece must default... I say this not for the obvious reasons, but rather because I think they plan to make Greece the poster child in Euroland.
That is, when Greece defaults, things will get ugly there. When that happens, the politicians and populace of the remaining troubled European countries see it and start thinking "you know, maybe austerity isn't so bad!"
As others have noted, the ring-fencing is underway and the swap lines are open. Besides, while Greeks may protest a lot, it's not like they're going to arm themselves and march across Europe or anything. This one can be contained and it sets an example.
The matching WilliamBanzai7 poster might read:
Greece: Don't let THIS happen to you!
Time will tell!
Remember the USD three month funding facilities - I believe that these facilities were created to 'ring fence' the 20 Sept Greek Default - remember Greece will not be the last defaulting country in the Eurozone - if they can allow Greece to default & still fund without concern of the money mkt Greece loses ALL of it's leverage & Euro politics gets a win!
Why this surprises anyone is beyond me. Greece has been ruled by foreigners for much of the historical period. They obviously can't be trusted to govern themselves. Unfortunately I can't see anyone wanting responsibility for that train-wreck of a country these days.
Maybe they could sell Crete to China, payable in gold, of course, which could then expand its real estate boom to the eastern Mediterranean. Thousands of Greeks would be employed as construction workers. The gold could then be transferred to Berlin as a debt settlement. Turkey would then be quietly encouraged to take over management of Greece, which it would then do, as Turkey is dumb, as modern nation-states go. Eventually this would cause Turkey to go bankrupt.
Turkey would then sell itself to China, payable in gold, of course. The gold would be immediately transferred to Berlin to settle Turkey's debts. Thousands of Turks would be employed as construction workers as the Chinese housing boom spreads from Crete to Anatolia. Russia would be quietly encouraged to take over management of Turkey, which it would then do...
Etc.
Why this surprises anyone is beyond me. Greece has been ruled by foreigners for much of the historical period. They obviously can't be trusted to govern themselves. Unfortunately I can't see anyone wanting responsibility for that train-wreck of a country these days.
Maybe they could sell Crete to China, payable in gold, of course, which could then expand its real estate boom to the eastern Mediterranean. Thousands of Greeks would be employed as construction workers. The gold could then be transferred to Berlin as a debt settlement. Turkey would then be quietly encouraged to take over management of Greece, which it would then do, as Turkey is dumb, as modern nation-states go. Eventually this would cause Turkey to go bankrupt.
Turkey would then sell itself to China, payable in gold, of course. The gold would be immediately transferred to Berlin to settle Turkey's debts. Thousands of Turks would be employed as construction workers as the Chinese housing boom spreads from Crete to Anatolia. Russia would be quietly encouraged to take over management of Turkey, which it would then do...
Etc.
Took me a minute to figure out what GD-Day meant. I was thinking G-d Damn.
or good-day mate like the aussies say - how come everything they say gets them laid?
Thats because we still have some minerals to export.....for now.
Learn Mandarin.
These Eurozone d-bags need to learn to stop shitting where they eat..
i feel like i'm in the back of the car on an endless mindless road. All I can keep asking is: Are we there yet?
We say in our family -- "The journey is the reward"
The Fed will take on any and every world debt and then the Fed will be dissolved. Party on dudes.
Peter what you say makes sense - with exception that there would have been a leak if everyone knew 9/20 would be GD/day. I doubt mkts go up 4 days in a row ahead of a sovereign default...tho I suppose credit didn't. If it is going to happen we trade down hard on 19th
yeah, but how many people commented that it was "eerily quiet" on friday? and credit was weak, even if stocks weren't? maybe the leak was contained?
http://www.dbresearch.de/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_DE-PROD/PROD0000000000278552/...
9 + 20 + 2 + 0 + 1 + 1 = 33. One of the occult's favorite numbers. It could happen - perfect date.
Now you're starting to think like one of them. People on here think that it has something to do with some sort of strategy. Nope. It's ritual magic to these people.
Yes.
That is because ritual magick works- it just isn't what people think it is. Thinking like them will serve you well, if you can do it.
I don't know about you, but I'm beginning to feel like this Greek default thing started when I was 4 years old. Wondering if I will I live long enough to see it through?
Depends... are you counting in dog years?
Has Franco died yet?
Survived by his son, Chef Boy R. Dee
Jesus H Fucking Christ can we just get this shit over with, yet? This charade has been going on for way the fuck too long. So long I'm beginning to loose my patience, and when I do, bad shit happens. Like I yell all sorts of twisted shit like "I make things up." while I grab and squeeze my nutsack in my psychriast's office and then she tells me to double the Ativan and go to more SLAA meetings. Things start to just fall apart.
Do you have any fucking idea what happens in an SLAA meeting when you start asking strange women if those are their real nipples under their blouses of just mini-cupcakes? Things just do not happen as planned.
Please please please just get it the fuck over with.
There's not even gonna be any reaction in markets anymore to a Greek Default.
I can see the headline on the WSJ already;
Greece defaults day late and a dollar short.
Subscript: Nobody Gives a Shit Anymore
Ah, there's always New Jersey.
Seems like a good time to default. ZH makes the call.
I was ready for it last weekend. This will give Bernanke and the FED a chance to ride in on a white horse and try to look like he's thoughtfully in control of things after their meeting. He might do something big (headed).
Can't happen yet. Liquidity facilities not yet up and running. I call oct 15th
Banks are holding CDS to hedge against a Greek default. Like who in hell wrote the CDS insurance and how in hell are they going to be able to make good on the CDS when billions upon billions in losses come due to the CDS holders on the day Greece defaults?
Banks seriously think they will be paid in full according to the terms of their CDS against a Greek default. Like when AIG sold a load of CDS to Goldman and then couldn't pay up in the 2008 meltdown so that the Government had to step in and make good the AIG CDS to Goldman.
A CDS should never ever be subject to government or Central bank bailouts. If you sell a CDS or buy a CDS it should all be on your head if it all goes bad. Stop the bailout guarantees and you stop 99% of all CDS action. Only a fool believes the seller can make good on the CDS insurance without bailout cash.
Greece CAN'T meet it's obligations, it can't stick to austerity, it can't collect it's taxes due and it can't generate economic growth needed to service it's debts. In short, Greece is a dead man walking, kick them into the grave and get it over with for cripes sake!
great picture jack :) but i do think cds should be on exchanges, in meantime, i think the writers are hedge funds who have posted collateral..that is why banks are "cool" with it
Very well put.
CDS activity requires an inherent underwriting by Governments.
The market cannot exist without it as the failure of a CDS writer would destroy the banking system.
The writing of CDSs on Sovereigns should be banned.
The CDS market is looking like the Lloyds insurance market to me.
But on a catastrophic scale.
"Only a fool believes the seller can make good on the CDS insurance without bailout cash."
Do they even care if the seller can make good ? I thought AIG trained us to understand that the tax payers will pay for it all.
I have good news for you. A very special metal collided into the earth today. Our recovery team has deemed this rare metal as priceless. The World Bank, IMF and BIS have collectively agreed to use this new metal to develop liquidity amongst the central banking sector. Sources tell us, Europe will be able to swiftly reconstruct debt obligation plans.
/sarc
I hope it was a particularly virulent form of Plutonium and the international bankers all took turns fondling it for hours as they assessed their good fortune.
I hope it was a particularly virulent form of Plutonium and the international bankers all took turns fondling it for hours as they assessed their good fortune.
I'm really getting sick of reading all this pussy-ass 'sky is falling, end of the world, here comes the chaos' fucking bullshit from some of you unemployed tinfoil heads.
That being said there's some fantastic commentary in these threads, which is why I come back.
As for the rest of you, fuck off. Man-up and grow a pair.
Oh, and for those of you making statements like 'hang the bankers, kill the IMF' etc et al--give your fucking heads a shake. It's illegal to make threats like that, and don't think for a second that the making threats falls under free speech. When you post useless shit like that you're really doing a disservice to this webpage and its authors--not to mention putting it at risk for a shut down because of the 'clearly dangerous rhetoric' some of you wankstars pass around here.
Just my 2 cents.
We don't need apologists for the banksters. There must be better things you can do with your time. Find a picture of Tim Geithner or Hank Paulson, your heros, and get some lotion and jerk off.
I happen to agree Armageddon is a notorious no-show, and unreasonable to pray for, but defending the actions of the elites is also not defensible. The banksters are crooks. Period.
Grow your own pair, and wake up. We're being fleeced.
Be honest--you voted for Obama right?
And I bet you had no problem with the banking elite back in 2002-2007.
Tell the truth, you're just bitter that the American dream you believed in so hard turned out to be poison.
You're right, you are being fleeced. I'm sure you're used to it.
You must turn yourself in. Your posting reeks of a terrorist thoughts. We cannot allow your rants to continue on this Zerohedge family board. Do the right thing, turn yourself in. Before signing in, make sure you report all Fishy neighbors as well. Upon completing your suspicious report, your EBT JPMorganChase card will be credited with 50,000 points.
http://www.attackwatch.com/
Edit: Prairie fire reminds me of a man who's trying to close a deal while prairie dogging his turd. He either shits himself or loses a customer.
who writes the laws anyway? oh yeah, the people who control all the money. obviously these people are above the law if the past three years has been any indication. ranting at people for ranting at the people responsible for the destruction of humanity kind of makes for a romantic circle-jerk dont you think? and here i go, ranting at you to complete the circle...
snitches get stitches!! bitches
Ive got a very bad feeling about the next week. I just cannot fathom the irresponsibility of the US in all this QE. Go the Fins!
Jack Burton: Feel pretty good. I'm not, uh, I'm not scared at all. I just feel kind of... feel kind of invincible.
Wang Chi: Me, too. I got a very positive attitude about this.
Jack Burton: Good, me too.
Wang Chi: Yeah!
[pause]
Jack Burton: Is it getting hot in here, or is it just me?
But at The Olive Garden (is that Greek or Italian)
Michelle Obama Gets Darden's to Promise Healthier Kids' Meals
not sure why everybody is talking about Greece ?
Greece is a tiny tiny economy here in Europe, they just have tourism and export olive oil. Greece is just being hyped by the media.
Ireland and Portugal economies combined are certainly much bigger than the Greece economy.
Spain and Italy are different animals - if Italy falls, then Europe will fall (see Unicredit bank).
The birthplace of democracy will not die. There will be Greece tomorrow, next week, next moneth and next year. They may or may not trade in Euros or Drachmas or Renmimbis or Yen or Dollars but trade they will. Greece will default because debt that cannot be paid back will not be. The rest of the world will paper over it, saving the TBTF from disaster for now.
OccupyWallSt is a farce and plays into the hands of power. If you want to organize and make a difference in ending the corrupt bankster-politico junta, then get as many people you can to stop paying. Stop paying on mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, tax bills, debts of all forms. Just stop paying. Do not file for Chapter 7 or 11 or 13, just stop paying and see what happens next. Keep enough cash on hand for necessities and put your savings into gold and silver. If we all did that, the machinery would come to a screeching halt.
Move some money off-shore, little by little. SE Asia is a great place to save and to invest. Check out Singapore as a financial base. Consider expatriating to lower cost of living countries like Malaysia, Cambodia, the Philippines (where English is spoken) or even Viet Nam. See "Retrench or Expatriate?", a recent blog post.
in the old days, each citizen voted on major issues...maybe we should go back to referendum instead of representation?
Absolutely. Representative democracy does not work because our duly elected "representatives" inevitably end up in the pockets of lobbyists.
The problem we must first solve, however is the ignorance and apathy of the American people. The historical solution for such problem has been a deep and lasting depression. It tends to wake up the sheep and pry them loose from American Idol and Jersey Shores.
But that puts us to the 'mob rule' government. Those sheeple so busy watching American Idol, Dancing with the Stars, etc will be the ones deciding our fate. Not a pleasant thought to anyone of sense.
What a bunch of horseshit.
Howabout....If frogs had wings they wouldn't bump their ass so much??
Honorable men pay their debts. If they signed up for it....they fucking owe it. This idea that it is an honorable thing to walk from your debts is pussyfied liberal bullshit.
Pay it off. Then if you dont want debt then don't fucking incur any.
It really is that simple.
PS FUCK that bullshit expat "Move to CostaRica/MALAYSIA/CAMBODIA/PI/NAM...It's fucking Paradise!"
If it is so fucking nice there then why do those folks continue to immigrate to the USA?
Whose debt is it again? Why do I have to pay to bailout someone else's debt?
Never said that.
I said if YOU incur the debt you should debt as agreed.
If an individual/corporation/sovereign cant pay then they default....never to be loaned to again ideally.
An iteresting find. Oldie but goodie. Fucking Squid. It is everywhere. http://www.risk.net/risk-magazine/feature/1498135/revealed-goldman-sachs...
We now know the Bernak suffers from ZERO STROKE. We knew something was wrong.
Tyler
Do we know where the concentration of the CDS lies along the curve? Is/ Was there a significant amount in the sept-11 contracts. Won't they simply roll these?
i dont think it would take place in the middle of the week, unless G-Pap declaires the rest of the week bank holiday to start printing the new junk currency that we r gonna have..
Guest Post: EFSF Bond Buying Won't Work, Is August 20th Default-Day?Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/14/2011 14:01 -0400
Every month same story.
That's because the probability rises at that time for technical reasons. This isn't prophecy, douche.
DOUCHE?
Go fuck yourself fag.
Sure it is the same story every month!! cause every month it is the same printing presses that make it another month.. but no more than the masses that want to be ignorant!
Default will come.Everybody knows that.
Trying every day to call it first is stupidity.
First... I'll be back tomorrow...
Calling someone a fag, whoa, how retro of you...
You are dating yourself, oldtimer..
Meh... ;-)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T3fOuFjOeYs
Natalie Merchant ? Which side are you on? | (Lyrics) HD • bytera
"Which Side Are You On?" is a song written by Florence Reece in 1931. She was the wife of a union organizer for the United Mine Workers in Harlan County, Kentucky. In 1931, the miners of that region were locked in a bitter and violent struggle with the mine owners. In an attempt to intimidate the Reece family, deputies hired by the mining company illegally entered and searched the Reece family home. Sam Reece had been warned in advance and escaped, but Florence and their children were terrorized in his place. That night, after the men had gone, Florence wrote the lyrics to "Which Side Are You On?" on a calendar that hung in the kitchen of her home. She took the melody from a traditional Baptist hymn, "Lay the Lily Low", or the traditional ballad "Jack Munro". Florence recorded the song and it can be heard on the CD Coal Mining Women.
Reece supported a second wave of miner strikes circa 1973, as recounted in the documentary Harlan County USA. She and others perform "Which Side Are You On?" a number of times throughout.
The song is referred to by Bob Dylan in the song "Desolation Row".
Source: wikipedia http://bit.ly/kWWIfS
Where are the "Compassionate Communists" and international unions speaking up for Chinese coal miners ? How soon they forget the struggle ! Monedas 2011 USA - Home of the richest, poor sonofabitches in the world !
The Greeks need to speak to the Icelanders... then jail as many crooked politicians/bankers as possible and kick the rest of these bums out of the country.
Who knew Iceland would be the only true model for economic reform?
Iceland was the canary in the coal mine before this all started.
There the people were too big to fail, the banks too small to enslave.
You got some nerve showin your face around here... Now throw on a bikini and STFU. Uh, was that my outloud voice? A thousand pardons...
Road map to trading the markets this week:
http://www.bostonwealth.net/2011/09/18/18883/
A lot like a map for sailing through the Carribean during hurricane season, isn't it? I'd rather head up to Florida to get a drink, shithole that it is...
Yes please! Let them default! Greece is the Terry Schiavo amongst nations... Greece has to default, and if it were an independant Island with no ties to the rest of the world, she would have already. The issue is not Greece, but the avalance of dominoes and cds that will fall and be triggered. It will be musical chairs for all major banks but the difference is that the music just stopped and there are no chairs at all.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terri_Schiavo_case
The Terri Schiavo case ( /??a?vo?/) was a legal battle in the United States between the legal guardians and the parents of Teresa Marie "Terri" Schiavo that lasted from 1998 to 2005. At issue was whether the husband's granted motions and later court findings to forgo further life-prolonging procedures or life support treatment for Terri, who was diagnosed by doctors as being in a persistent vegetative state, would be carried out. The highly publicized and prolonged series of legal challenges presented by the parents and by state and federal legislative intervention effected in total a seven-year delay before life support finally was terminated.
where's the denial????????
there's a vacuum where all the denials from Merkle, Sarkozy and Trichet are supposed to be claiming all is well. they are totally silent this weekend.
this time it must be happening.
Are we still suspended in mid-air over the cliff, or are we now dropping? My stomach feels a little queezy...
If China offers financing for Greece it will hold down the price of gold and then China can buy more. They can withdraw the offer later.
This is going to be interesting...
I agree with TD and think Sept 20 is a good day for GD-day..... but Rickards says Greece can muddle through another 3-4 months before they default, and maybe so, but the stars are lined up for Sept 20. It would also give the green light for Bernanke to do more QE to undercut the Euro.
Does Tyler Durden or anyone know who's holding the CDS's for Greek paper. In the potential domino effect liquidity freeze, they will be on the front line. It'll be a matter of days until banks aren't loaning to banks, like in 2008. Companies depending on rolling commercial paper to make payrolls - and there are many, could see employees being furloughed not long after that.
ah .............the squid? and jp morg .............and citi...........and boa.........
i think some dumb banks are lucky enough to have a tiny bit of this, and it is some hedge funds who sold it. cds will turn out to be a non event. it will be something else completely that bites the world in the ass
Market is going to flip on the Greek default. 5 days of rallies, it's gonna be a sell on the fact. The Fed? all they can do now is FLOOD the world with USD's...
May Michael Moore's mother's milk trickle down your Greecey chin ! Imagine the wart hog of a mother that shat that beast ? Monedas 2011 Hugo Chavez is currently indisposed for casual, group sex due to his Cuban chemo-therapy regimen ! Me happy !
Guys, wake up: the ECB can postpone a Greece default indefinitely. You know the saying: don't bet against the Fed - don't bet against the ECB either.
No they can't. ECB's days are numbered with the amount of unrealized losses piling up on it's balance sheet, that and Germany won't let the print (y'know Weiner republic history inflation and what not). So, prepare yourself/portfolio for a default. Greece is done and dusted.
As for the FED...well the Ron Pauls of the world (and they are gathering) won't except flat out money printing anymore. The political backlash against the FED now is growing.
Relax.
Greece will get the next tranche of loans.
QE3 will be a smashing success.
Austerity measures are a bitter pill--but we'd all be better off relying less on government and more on ourselves. The strong and the quick always survive.
Gold will get a shotgun round to the mouth, and teach us about being fearful when others are greedy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=imNZK4hrndM
the place where revolution will start. can't you just feel it?
Yeah, the music is kinda revoltin... (normally like your posts but damn...) didn't junk you but... the mouse... is moving... towards... whew... wrestled away at the last second. now slap yourself and never do that again... :)
The USD Index price action seems to be turning higher and could return to it bullish trend. The USD should impact other markets. An interesting Full Market analysis is available here http://bit.ly/p8WB9s
lol.
Here's an idea, let's work toward a global default day. If everyone defaults at the same time, no idiot government will be singled out. Better yet, how about the entire G-7 defaults when Greece officially calls it quits. Wag the dog, bitchez.
A popular strategic tax default is already in progress in Greece; maybe Americans should follow their lead:
On the ground report from Greece by Manos
September 11, 2011
Today, after two years of screwing and pressing us, most households and businesses have stopped paying. Stopped paying taxes, utility bills, toll fees, or anything else related to the government.
Two hours ago, this same government announced a new property tax (added to the 2 previous ones). This one will be calculated on every and each household, business, cottage, or even a barn for animals. It will be 4 euros per square meter calculated immediately, to be paid by this December the latest.
And the new tax will also not be paid.
http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/warning-for-americans-be-safe-and-stay-alert-its-coming_09132011
"Zero stroke". That is hilarious, now that I've read about it. Now I know why I do the things I do and say the things I say. BTW, I'll be over here printing dollars for the next eleventy-nine quadrillion years, like I've done for the past googolplex trillion years.
opinions are like arseholes
everybody's got one
Could be a big down week. ES http://bit.ly/nlr4c9 CL http://bit.ly/of1zer
Does anyone not find it ironic that the cradle of modern civilization is the first to fall?
More pointedly the birthplace of "demokratia"
And yes. Isn't it ironic--doncha think?
not really. Greece is hardly the first country to have debt issues.
I've Got You Babe!
It Ain't Me Babe
I'll be fashionably late as nothing in europe ever starts on time.
Modern Bankers--->bailouts=nirvana, enlightenment, or higher state of being. Practicing masters include h. paulson, the bernanke, timmmay, summers, and yogi greenspan.
When we get to QE2K will all the computers in the world shut down?
Got this from Daily Reckoning Australia:
--It sure looks like mum and dad investors are about to get screwed again by the global financial elite. Australian stocks are down this morning. Friday's relief rally didn't last long. But why haven't more people seen the Greek default coming?
--Part of the investor confusion stems from the big news late last week. The heads of the five organised financial crime families - the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank - announced they would offer three-month loans in US dollars to pretty much any European bank that needed it.
--This was a liquidity move to give European banks dollars. They need those dollars to repay previous dollar-denominated loans and to make new ones. Trouble is, US money market funds, with over $700 billion in cash, have stopped lending Europe short-term money. So the Fed stepped in to the rescue.
--This was how the story played out in the press. But as we wrote to Australian Wealth Gameplan readers on Friday, you could make a good argument that flooding Europe's banks with dollars (or the guarantee of dollars if needed) was a clear signal that Europe is ready to let Greece default. It's almost certain to happen now, and maybe as soon as this week.
--It probably should have happened sooner. But the European Central Bank (ECB) needed time to make sure the biggest French and German banks would not be wiped out by losses on Greek government bonds. And now, the whole system has ample dollar supplies on hand for any emergency capitalisations made necessary by Greece's default.
--You can tell how unstable a system is by how long its periods of equilibrium last. The Five Families news last week was good for 24 hours of higher stock prices. But our view is that this was just covering fire for anyone in-the-know to sell stocks before the crisis was stage-managed to the next phase.
--The next phase is the ECB, the European Union, and the International Monetary Fund making demands of Greece that will result in the failure of the Greek government and/or Greece saying "enough!" The triumvirate of monetary dictators from Europe have threatened to withhold the next disbursement of Greece's bailout fund unless the government fires at least 25,000 public servants and collects more taxes.
--Greece should probably do both. But it certainly won't. And the demands being made of it now serve only three real purposes. First, the ruling German coalition can tell German voters it got tough with Greece. Second, the ruling Greek coalition can tell Greek voters it got tough with voters. Third, Greece can be allowed to default and leave the Euro in a way that doesn't cause more panic in other government bond markets. At least not yet.
--Our analysis could be wrong. But the nature of all the moves in the last four days has been to ensure adequate liquidity in credit markets. Greece's fundamental insolvency hasn't changed. Europe isn't trying to fix what's broke. It's trying to break off the most broken parts in order to avoid collapsing the whole project.
--We'll see how that goes. In the meantime, any "surprise" Greek bankruptcy is going to catch stock market investors flat footed. But the bankers and policy makers are not worried about share market values at the moment. They're worried about saving their Byzantine, debt-backed, hopelessly complex financial system.
--This brings us back to last week's currency pyramid. We invited you to tell us the currency in which you'd prefer to hold most of your wealth in the coming years. There are only two observations worth passing on. Only about 10 people replied. And all of them said the silver coin. "I'll take the silver coin. The others are backed only by the honesty and integrity of politicians!," said Roly Mulvay.
--Precious metals are bouncing up and down this morning. As fearful as investors are, they know that intervention by the powers-that-be usually hits gold and silver the hardest. The Fed meets this week. Its interventions - buying long-term bonds, buying other assets, introducing new maturities - destabilise markets because they make long-term planning dangerous.
--But it is what it is. We have to live (for now) with the Fed and the ECB and their dogged determination to persist living in an alternate monetary reality. To be sure, the markets have already spoken about Europe's financial and monetary reality. Greek default is almost 100% certain according to credit default swap markets. And the fact that US money market funds won't lend to European banks at the moment is another market reality.
--Yet Europe and the Fed keep doubling down on the basic premise that more debt is the solution to a solvency problem. We reckon they have two more chances to recapture the confidence of the market. If they don't, they will have to borrow money from China and post central bank gold as collateral.
--Or the monetary system is in for more shocks between now and the end of 2011. One of them is bound to be fatal. If we were a betting man, we'd bet that the Euro is going to monetary Hell. And "risk assets", which include the Aussie dollar and Aussie stocks, are going to be collateral damage. Whatever you do, don't get caught believing the theatrics. Have your own financial survival strategy. And stick with it.
lol; everyone thinks there's some order to entropy.
When shit falls apart, it'll fall apart. Stop trying pin some date on it; just know that it's coming, and once it happens, the rest of the house of the cards'll come tumbling down.
now add this to the mix.
* China 'faces subprime credit bubble crisis' - Ambrose Evans-Pritchard - UK Telegraph
CDS blow outs across the board
Americans and even some Brits just do not understand the nature of EU. It is not some tight federal union, it is a TRADING union. Similar maybe to 17th-18th century USA, with many colonies, many languages and no federal union. Even during the American independence war only about 1/3rd wanted independence, 1/3rd did not care one way or other and the rest more or less against.
Trading union is a typical European solution. Holy Roman Empire after Rome, lasting about 800 years was one example. Europe just is too diverse to go much beyond common currency and common trading laws. Once a party starts to be the dominant one or trying to conquer others, it always falls apart.That is why this trading union was put into place in the 1950's between France and Germany. No more bloody useless wars.
This constant haggling and negotiations behind the curtains is quite normal to Europe. It is quite maddening experience to Americans but that is how it goes. Americans prefer quick but in many cases wrong solutions in the long term and find themselves in even deep ditch.
...everything is on schedule http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISKuC6lSMrg&feature=related
Why don't the fuckers just raise their debt ceiling?
It worked like a cheerleader in a whorehouse for us.
Going against what i posted earlier, it seems that Greece has enough money to get to the end of the month.
So it cant default this week?
Seasons don't fear the reaper,
Nor do the wind, the sun or the rain,
We can be like they are...
Come on baby, (don't fear the reaper),
Baby take my hand, (don't fear the reaper),
We'll be able to fly, (don't fear the reaper),
Baby I'm your man...
I think - Greece and other debt countries could be asked to sell gold as to provide collateral
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870399270457630472226332577...
Why shouldn't cash-strapped European countries be forced to liquidate their gold holdings, German politicians have been asking.
Prices, after all, are close to historic highs. Moreover, bullion is the ultimate hedge against an economic rainy day, and it's certainly pouring down in Greece, Portugal, and Ireland.
The first two are sitting on substantial gold reserves. Portugal has nearly 383 tons and Greece around 112, according to the World Gold Council. Indeed, Portugal's hoard comes to about 9% of its GDP, which is the highest proportion in Europe. Greece's is a much lower 1.7%.
Portugal's holding would be worth $18 billion at current market rates, which would be a handy offset to the E78 billion ($108 billion) bailout it has just accepted from the European Union. On the face of it, there is an absurdity here
Greece has already been given the money to pay these two coupons by the way sorry to spoil your article. The next redemptions due that are currently unfunded is December
Greece has already been given the money to pay these two coupons by the way sorry to spoil your article. The next redemptions due that are currently unfunded is December
"...
Under American pressure, Greek governments have been concealing for decades that our country is rich in oil and rare minerals, such as gold and uranium. There are studies indicating that if these quantified resources are extracted and marketed, Greece will become one of the richest nations in the world. The Greek people have been kept in the dark as much as the rest of the world.
...
It is only a matter of time before Greece becomes subjugated from debt, and is forced to sell rights of its natural resources to US corporations.
This is something that we cannot allow.
Help the people of Greece resist!We are organizing the LARGEST campaign every seen in modern Greece, aiming to save our nation from the oil tyrans and maintain our independence."
Greece allows illegal immigration after pressure from the U.S.