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September 23: The Beginning Of The End For Merkel... And The Eurozone?

Tyler Durden's picture


Update: sure enough, here is Ambrose Evans-Pritchard with his own perspective on just this topic, which is oddly comparable to Zero Hedge's: "Mrs Merkel's aides say she is facing "war on every front". The next month will decide her future, Germany's destiny, and the fate of monetary union."


Every time we discuss the futility of the nth bailout of [Greece\PIIGS\Europe\the Euro] we make it all too clear (most recently here and here) that the trade off between Germany onboarding ever more peripheral financial risk in one after another all too brief attempt to prevent the implosion of European capital markets and its currency, is not only a relentless creep higher in German default risk (and lower in the German stock market, as August has so violently demonstrated) but increasing political discontent, which after claiming countless political regimes across the world, has finally settled down on one that truly matters: that of German chancellor Angela Merkel. And as Reuters reports, Merkel's disappointing response to an ever escalating set of crises, both domestic and international, means that the beginning of her end (and by implication of the Eurozone, and of the Euro) may be as soon as September 23, when the vote over the expansion of the latest and greatest European bailout lynchpin, EFSF, will take place.

To wit: "Germany's Angela Merkel faces the biggest challenge to her leadership since coming to power in 2005, with traditionally loyal conservative allies openly criticizing her approach to the euro zone crisis and her hands-off Libya policy in is Merkel's piecemeal approach to the euro zone's worsening debt crisis that has come under fire over the past week and now threatens her iron grip on power in Germany." The biggest problem for Merkel is that she has gone "Japanese" in the opinion of the public: doing neither nothing, nor enough, to halt the European crisis in its tracks: "For some in Germany, she has gone too far by bailing out stricken euro zone members and agreeing to intervention in the bond markets to prop them up. For others at home and abroad, she has not done enough, shirking bold steps that might solve the debt crisis because they would be unpopular at home." This latest attempt to placate everyone, while achieving precisely the opposite, will come to a head on September 23 when the vote to expand the EFSF takes place: she is for the time being expected to have a sufficient number of votes to pass the critical for the eurozone proposal. "If it's not enough, Merkel would be forced to resign. It would lead to a crisis." And should there be a crisis, it will be the end for the European experiment as well, since with the political situation at the Euro's biggest financial backer in flux, the free fall in European risk will be one that no one, certainly not the ECB, will be able to arrest. Cue even more improvised bailouts by the central banker oligarchy, yet without Germany, the credibility of any and all such deseprate measures will be nil. This incremental political uncertainty will likely make the life of the FOMC's Sept 20-21 meeting slightly easier, as an adverse monetary announcement by the Fed, contrary to that priced in, coupled with the risk of a full blown European crisis, will be very frowned upon by the Status QuoTM.

From Reuters:

Seen for much of the past six years as a reliable, steady leader whose competence and knack for brokering deals made up for a lack of bold vision, Merkel's image has taken a beating over the past months and polls show an increasing number of Germans view her government as directionless.


The chancellor's troubles can be traced back to two decisions taken in March, when she abruptly dropped her long-standing support for nuclear power in the aftermath of the Fukushima disaster in Japan, and days later backed Germany's abstention from a U.N. vote authorising military action in Libya.


Coming shortly before a crucial state election, which her conservatives subsequently lost, the steps looked to many in Germany and abroad like cynical political ploys to placate domestic opinion.


For some in Germany, she has gone too far by bailing out stricken euro zone members and agreeing to intervention in the bond markets to prop them up. For others at home and abroad, she has not done enough, shirking bold steps that might solve the debt crisis because they would be unpopular at home.


This conflict will come to a head next month.


Merkel's coalition has a comfortable 20-seat majority in the lower house of parliament. But if she is hit with dissent in her own ranks, and is forced to rely on opposition parties to pass legislation to expand the single currency bloc's rescue mechanism -- the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) -- then her coalition could collapse, sparking early elections.


"The euro crisis entered a new phase over the past week," influential German weekly Der Spiegel said on Sunday.


"Before the main question had been how the common currency could be saved. Now it is also about saving Merkel's chancellorship. If her coalition does not deliver a majority for the enhanced euro rescue mechanism in the autumn, people close to the chancellor say, the coalition is all but finished."

On the significance of September 23:

The chances of Merkel failing to secure her own majority in the EFSF vote, which is likely to take place on Sept. 23, still seem slim.


Her Christian Democrats (CDU), hovering at a weak 30 percent in opinion polls, have little incentive right now to bring forward an election that is not scheduled to take place until the autumn of 2013.


Merkel's conservative bloc -- composed of the CDU, Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU) and Free Democrats (FDP) -- has shown discipline in previous euro zone aid votes, with only a handful of lawmakers rebelling.


"I expect she will get majority backing from her own coalition," said Gerd Langguth, a political scientist at Bonn University and biographer of Merkel, putting the number of dissenters at around fifteen.


"If it's not enough, Merkel would be forced to resign. It would lead to a crisis. No one is interested in an early election."

Slim... but getting bigger:

Critical voices from within the party have grown louder over the past week, with senior CDU lawmaker Wolfgang Bosbach vowing publicly to vote against the EFSF increase and popular Labour Minister Ursula von der Leyen -- seen as a potential successor to Merkel -- wading into the euro zone debate with comments that went against official policy.

Helmut Kohl enters the frey:

Perhaps most damaging of all, however, was former Chancellor Helmut Kohl's rare public criticism of his protege last week. Kohl plucked Merkel out of obscurity in East Germany after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, bringing her into his cabinet and helping to launch one of the most unlikely and astonishing political careers that Germany has ever seen.


In an interview with newspaper Internationale Politik, Germany's longest-serving post-war leader and father of reunification broke his silence and unleashed a broadside against Merkel's foreign policy, saying it lacked direction and risked undermining Germany's global influence.


"The enormous changes in the world can be no excuse for having no view or idea where you belong and where you are going," Kohl, 81, said.

Yet not even the EFSF vote will do much to help Europe if the German economic implosion (documented here, here and here) continues. Should her own GDP not rebound, it won't matter one bit whether Merkel succeeds in sending the PIIGS to unseen economic golden ages.

However the biggest threat to her hold on power, should she survive the EFSF vote next month, could be the slowing German economy. Data over the past two weeks showed that Europe's biggest economy ground to a virtual halt in the second quarter of the year.


Business confidence plunged this month by its largest amount since shortly after the bankruptcy of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers in 2008. Some economists now see the risk of a recession in Germany.


The country's robust rebound from the global economic downturn of 2008/2009, and sinking unemployment, was one asset Merkel thought she could count on heading into the next election.


Now that support is crumbling too, wiping away some more of the magic that she exuded in her first years in office, when she was celebrated in Germany and abroad as the "Gipfelkoenigen" -- or Summit Queen -- for brokering deals with in the EU and G8.


"Her downfall may not come from the euro crisis, but simply from the fact that she has lost the shine, the sure footing that she had at the start," said Josef Joffe, editor of German weekly Die Zeit.

At the end, should Merkel drop out of the picture, and Europe be left with finding scraps of capital everywhere else it can, we can't wait for the ensuing hilarity as the future of a failed European experiment then proceeds to be a burden on the far narrower shoulders of one (AAA-rated) Nicholas Sarkozy.


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Sun, 08/28/2011 - 15:09 | 1609690 Mongo
Mongo's picture

Good riddance

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 15:14 | 1609698 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

yup  the sooner the better

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 15:15 | 1609703 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Out with the B!tch, Bitchez!

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:03 | 1609803 russki standart
russki standart's picture

Disagree. Merkel will survive and Germany will bail out the other european countries one more time. Thereafter, it is over since the resultant debts will overwhelm the system. 

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:49 | 1609913 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

Does anyone remember what happened the last time Germany were forced into pledging vast amounts of cash (or “reparations”) to other European nations? No?

It wasn’t pretty.

Hitler, bitchez

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 19:26 | 1610285 eisley79
eisley79's picture


Sun, 08/28/2011 - 21:25 | 1610522 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

The German people are acutely aware of their past history.  They will not allow a repeat.  Germany overcame much to rebuild - after WWII and after reunification.  Its people went throught much and they do not wish to lose what they now have.

Americans, on the other hand, are all too oblivious to their own history and - being blunt- are rather spoiled.  They have lived far beyond their means for some time and resent the intrusion of reality into their sheltered lives.  The US populace has already tolerated (barely questioned) marked limitations on their rights and liberties.  They have already gone to war on false pretenses and violated international law on many levels without any serious debate on those actions much less legal accountability. Some have openly voiced their support for military action against countries with oil reserves if it guaranteed the cheap gasoline they have grown accustomed to. A growing extremist faction has enthusisatically supported leaders who  blame others for their problems and promise a return to ''better times' taking the name of Jesus on a regular basis in doing so -  Sinclair Lewis' "wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross"personified.  With a middle class terrified of losing the little they have accumulated and an economic melt-down guaranteed to make their situation even more perilous, and a corporate owned media that keeps the public dumb and uninformed, the US is ripe for a 'strong leader' who promises everything - in exchange only for a national committment to his cause and unquestioned support from the populace.


Sun, 08/28/2011 - 23:06 | 1610729 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

I concur.

I still think shoehorning Germany into paying for the PIIGS is a very, very bad idea though. They are a proud and dignified people. They shouldn't have to clean up everyone else's mess. I see the geldmark on the horizon... 

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 15:15 | 1609701 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

The beginning of the end started when the EU refused to implement its' own bylaws and refused to boot or suspend Greece.

Showed the investing world that EU whims meant more then bylaws.


Sun, 08/28/2011 - 15:18 | 1609707 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

She'll bend like a figure scater and fuck the rest of Europe like a nympho.

It will happen.

Look at what's happening in Greece last week, not many noticed but the 2 biggest banks already merged.

What we will start to see from this point on it more mergers all over Europe UNTILL WE GET ON BIG ASS BANK that is under control of the Oliargs.


Sun, 08/28/2011 - 15:43 | 1609757 rbsx
rbsx's picture

You forget, the rest of Europe deserves to get fvcked for their poor decision making.l

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:06 | 1609810 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

what decision making?


Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:23 | 1609849 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Ha ha!  So true our Belgian friend!  Made my afternoon!

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 22:50 | 1610687 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Speaking of which, what news re:  Belgian Govt?

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:51 | 1609916 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture


Govs, all govs, put off decisions as long as possible. This is done in the hope that the problem goes away, or resolves itself, so that no decision is necessary.

When a decision absolutely, unavoidably, has to be made we get a cluster flock like we witnessed with the 'debt ceiling debacle'...

The pols abhore decision making... it interferes with their T times and reelection bids...

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:08 | 1609814 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

but who's gonna run this "mystical meglomaniacal mega bank?" the nympho figure skaters? .... Possibly. It'll have to be one of those "behind the scenes" things though. I don't think we'll want them "running to the Euro Congress" demanding "further bailouts of the Olympic Committee" however. People might actually pay attention and agree.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:31 | 1609869 oldman
oldman's picture


Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:41 | 1610141 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Obama Bin Lyin'

Barry Soetoro is on the run as the Wall Street Owned Puppet watches the Bankster class implode what is left of the real economy and prepare to pay themselves huge $144 Billion bonuses (More than 1% of GDP) with taxpayer loot again...

CREEP 2012: Committee to RE-Elect the President
The mobs of unemployed, foreclosed on and hungry will man the pitchfork and torch brigades and go after the Bullshit Barry Campaign Bus...

Town hall teleprompter hilarity will ensue...

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 21:35 | 1610541 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Barry's Chicago mob union goons will keep them away. Pitchforks and torches are no match for guns and knives

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:42 | 1609891 Fuh Querada
Fuh Querada's picture

@ sudden debt

Great. Can you provide a cartoon to illustrate your hypotheses?

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:20 | 1610095 snowball777
snowball777's picture

I'm trademarking that. Big Ass Bank : "We've Got Money...Out the Ass". We'll use Beyonce for the ads.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 22:57 | 1610701 James
James's picture

And Beyonces ass is about to get bigger.

She's pregnant.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 23:29 | 1610777 Real Estate Geek
Real Estate Geek's picture

I always knew that there was a fat girl in there crying to get out.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 15:19 | 1609709 props2009
props2009's picture

Lots of charts on US, EU and China. Perfect sunday read before trading begins.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 15:22 | 1609718 Transitory Disi...
Transitory Disinflation's picture
Something to add to the mix....... 7 Reasons This September Should Scare the Crap Out Of You



Sun, 08/28/2011 - 15:23 | 1609719 mfoste1
mfoste1's picture

women have proven they should not be involved in politics.....

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 15:31 | 1609738 SILVER_GIRL
SILVER_GIRL's picture

well... man really proved they should be in politics... we can see very clearly the state of things... ha ha

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 19:30 | 1610302 eisley79
eisley79's picture

lol, funny but

dont fall for his tricks.  He just wanted to see if there were any girls posting on zero hedge, so he can creep their profiles.  ROFL

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 15:43 | 1609756 Thomas
Thomas's picture

Yeah. The guys did a peachy job.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 15:47 | 1609765 Shylockracy
Shylockracy's picture

Mörkel can hardly be classed a human being, let alone a woman; a soulless apparatchik puppet is more like it.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 22:54 | 1610696 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

That's right. An East German.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 15:49 | 1609766 WVO Biker
WVO Biker's picture

Which is the cheapest way out of this for Germany?

Germany is finished and we now need Eurobonds and an end to sovereignity, rather there must be a European government and a new united European state. The german sheeples that are opposed to this don't take to the street in any numbers, the others don't understand the implications or don't care. The situation can no longer be turned back at this point.

Tschüss, Deutschland. I will be happy to be a European.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:12 | 1609822 delacroix
delacroix's picture

nuke brussels?

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:26 | 1609861 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ WVO, we'll be watching.  You provide an interesting take.  Touché!

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 22:04 | 1610594 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Start with Poland. Stay close with the Americans this time.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:40 | 1609888 Shocker
Shocker's picture

No one inspires to be in Politics

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 23:01 | 1610716 James
James's picture

Nor do they aspire too

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:39 | 1610145 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

"women have proven they should not be involved in politics....."

You mean ball less eunuchs like Shark-ozy and
Obama Bin Lyin' ??

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 15:28 | 1609728 Smithovsky
Smithovsky's picture

Does anyone have a good opinion on how far down the EDX will go once it finally dawns on the market that this single-currency experiment has failed? 

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 15:30 | 1609735 Greed
Greed's picture

The foreign view on german politics is often interesting, but sometimes lacks the necessary understanding of the political culture.

As you might know, renegades are a very seldom species in the Reichstag. In fact it is common to articulate differing oppinions before a poll, but extremely rare to vote against the own party once the time has come. It will be the same this time.

Anyhow, please do not forget the fact that the opposition is on course to back Mrs. Merkels position, even if it is just because they cant sport any alternative. There are no votes to be won for the opposition by blocking the EFSF. 

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 15:51 | 1609773 Gunther
Gunther's picture

Normally the German MP's vote party line - no question. This time I am not so sure, they must have heard unpleasant things from the voters in their ridings.

Voting to guarantee money amounting to almost one year of federal budget is something to question party line more then usual.

Moreover, the opposition states that they want monetary union and the like but will NOT let the opportunity go to get the Merkel government out of power.


Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:11 | 1609825 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

At least in the USA they fund an actual and existing federal government before they agree to bankrupting the individual states. Indeed--the composite states have no voice in this process. Why any state in Europe would agree to bankrupt itself for a chance to climb "the Misty Mountain" is beyond me.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:56 | 1609926 drider
drider's picture

The Germans have done crazier things in the past including setting off to conquer the world.

Anyway, the reality is that if you want to lead you have to take risks (and yes even debts). 

Look in the future for signs of Americans increasingly withdrawing from global geopolitical affairs... 

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 22:07 | 1610604 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

As we collapse at home we do the exact opposite abroad. Wait till we blame our debt on all of you! Then you'll see our ANGRY face!

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:02 | 1609798 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

The Greens, who are likely to get over 20% of the votes in the next German general election in 2012, love that warm fuzzy feeling that comes from solidarity with, and bailouts of,  the  brothers and sisters in the southern EU, and their voters (still)  have high enough incomes to support this laudable moral stance. The SPD has come out strongly in favor of Eurobonds, if only out of principle to counter Murkle. The FDP has become peculiarly silent after strongly opposing the bailouts, mainly because they may not even get the 5% of votes necessary to stay in the Bundestag in 2012. The normal citizen doesn't know dick about all the economic stuff (just like anywhere else), and couldn't tell a Eurobond from a bondage video. So whether Murkle stays or goes, it will make no difference.


Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:46 | 1609903 Larry Darrell
Larry Darrell's picture

"The normal citizen doesn't know dick about all the economic stuff (just like anywhere else), and couldn't tell a Eurobond from a bondage video."

They will learn the difference in time.

With the video, they watch someone else enjoy getting abused.

With the bonds, they will not enjoy getting abused themselves.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 17:11 | 1609948 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

 I would go even further, if she goes, the socialists come into the frame, and then if they dont play ball its even better again for the Euro, as Germany are the only ones procrastinating about the Eurobond, when really, they aren’t needed. Even without Germany, the combined size of the Eurobond market would be bigger than Japans and only marginally smaller than the US. Germany would be left out in the cold again, the WCS for them, and the only reason the Eurozone was started in the first place. So, pinning the future of the entire Eurozone on Merkle convincing her right-wingers to fund the south is a moot point. Just another chapter in the "Euro about to collapse any second now, any second..." freak show. It wont be pretty, but it will just be another hurdle to get over; people underestimate how far the Euro has come and how much effort that has been put into it, that’s one thing the bears cant get their heads around.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 15:33 | 1609740 Religion Explained
Religion Explained's picture

Nah, you don't have to wait till Sep 23. When the German court decides on the legality of the past bailouts on Sep 7th, that's when the fireworks start and you better not get caught long.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 15:54 | 1609786 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

The court is fixed.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:14 | 1609793 Shylockracy
Shylockracy's picture

Exactly my thoughts, but you may recall that the Bundesverfassungsgericht is a political court whose judges are appointed by the parties. Its single purpose is to maintain the status quo, so it is very unlikely they would rock the boat with anything as démodé, ideologically repellent and politically incorrect as an affirmation of the German people's right to self-determination, or the German state's  sovereignity.  The BvG is ideologically committed to the progressive dissolution of the German state and nation in the European sulphuric cauldron.

Mon, 08/29/2011 - 02:54 | 1611039 fajensen
fajensen's picture

And then there is the Maastrict Treaty: Cloaked in 3000 pages of inpenetrable eu-speak, there will be the a clause along the lines of: "Nation states agree to delegate authority to the EU as the need arises".

That will be invoked, should the German parliament fail.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:21 | 1609844 Earl of Chiswick
Earl of Chiswick's picture

I recall seeing a small Black Swan floating in the pond outside of the Federal Constitutional Court  in Karlsruhe


Germany's top court to rule on euro bailouts September 7

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 15:37 | 1609742 NuYawkFrankie
NuYawkFrankie's picture

Anyone else see the fizzical, maggot-gagging resemblance between Merkel & Hillary? Could they possibly be one-and-the-same beast?

I've certainly never seen 'em in the same room together... hmmmm......


Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:07 | 1609813 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

Whom would you rather spend the night with?

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:18 | 1609841 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

No contest. Angela is a dreamboat. Hillary has a nukular kooch.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:48 | 1609911 Larry Darrell
Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:44 | 1609897 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

Only a lesbian could answer that

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:22 | 1610103 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Trick question: they're the same damn "person".

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 15:34 | 1609743 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

I don't understand all the fuzz. The July 21 agreement will simply pass one way or antoher, in all 17 parliaments. Finland will get some collateral. Finished. Boring world we live in.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:02 | 1609800 maw53704
maw53704's picture

some leader of a country might not be so happy receiving paper gold.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 15:35 | 1609744 whstlblwr
whstlblwr's picture

Okay this is off topic.

Did you see, Ron Paul did good job today on the Fox News show. But notice Rick Perry is doing what they want, taking support from Paul.

People who come here, who want Ron Paul to win, we need to spread word on why we think he is better man than Perry. Go to facebook and write more than just 'woohoo Ron Paul 2012'. We need to show we're smart, explain difference.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 15:39 | 1609750 takeaction
takeaction's picture

I try and tell one sheep a day about Dr. Paul.  Secrets have been revelaed about Dr. Paul.. The skeletons are insane.  Look.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:06 | 1609767 whstlblwr
whstlblwr's picture

It's inspiring video.

I think not just tell one sheep a day (don't think they really sheep BTW, just too busy to pay attention), need to debate merit and difference.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:24 | 1610113 snowball777
snowball777's picture with Reagan. Epic FAIL!

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:43 | 1609893 UGrev
UGrev's picture

Here's one. As a gynecologist, Ron Paul sought to assist with the continued health and care of his patients. In contrast, Rick Perry got paid big bucks to suck the dick of the Pharm company "Merck" and put young women at risk of premature death by legislating mandatory vaccinations using Gardasil before realizing that he made a mistake. As if forthought of such an act was optional; an "Oops", if you will. The unconscionable acceptance of lobbying money in the return for lining the pockets of Merck was his focus.. money money money. Ron Paul, by definition of his profession alone, would have NEVER done that. 

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 20:16 | 1610400 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

"put young women at risk of premature death by legislating mandatory vaccinations using Gardasil"

How about you provide some "legitimate studies" that support this claim? 

Cervical Cancer also can cause a risk of "premature death".....

Futher :

 "The order provided vaccination free of charge to those who were not covered by insurance,[96] and included an opt-out provision for parents."

Rick Perry is a Repubilcan whore from Texas, nothing new there!  But get your facts straight, there is enough ammunition to attack him with out using this.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 23:01 | 1610717 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

Both Paul and Perry support the twin globalist disasters of Open Borders and Free Trade. But Perry has Gun, and Will Travel (Secede). Therefore he's da Man. Get used to it, ZH'rs. 

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:46 | 1609905 duo
duo's picture

I remember the hit piece Tim Russert did on Ron Paul that pretty much ended the 2008 run.  Didn't help Tim, though.  I think he was dead 2 weeks later.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 17:04 | 1609937 UGrev
UGrev's picture

Yeah, Timmy sure put a nice twist on Rons' objectives. Spun it really well. It was just an attack piece 

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 15:36 | 1609746 Ausperity
Ausperity's picture

I'm pretty sure that Merkel gets the support to extend and pretend through the end of this year at least.  The bailouts will end when there is nothing left to loot.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 17:02 | 1609934 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

"The problem with socialism is that sooner or later you run out of other people's money"

M Thatcher... another pol from the fair er sex...

And sooner or later both the EU and US are going to learn the truth of Thather's quote...

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:26 | 1610116 snowball777
snowball777's picture

"The problem with securitized mortgage pools..."

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 20:26 | 1610421 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

M.  Thatcher ? God bless her soul.  Now I understand your ( FIAT) diatribe...

Mon, 08/29/2011 - 11:00 | 1611688 falak pema
falak pema's picture

You would; as you are cross eyed and you probably loved her surrogates like Pinochet. She was the name of the disease that has eaten into the heart of the British nation. They only have one nut in their economy now thanks to her, its called the CIty. Corrupt as Babylon's baby. Fortunately the british people have the OTHER nut, its called their sense of humor. 

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 15:40 | 1609751 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

The Lady of the House over at the IMF seems to have things well in hand! see for yourself!

"Women are like Teabags" Per her, NOT! Me!! LOL!!

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 15:41 | 1609752 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

The logic you employ is unassailable. In a normal environment, you speak the clear truth.

These times are NOT normal and logic was utterly lost when American idol became a proxy for American president.

It's over.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 15:44 | 1609759 ZeroBoBo
ZeroBoBo's picture

No way guys, didn't you know the Euro crisis is over within 2-3 years according to the head of the EFSF? (/facepalm)
Angela is all fine and dandy! Not!

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 15:50 | 1609772 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Merkel goes nowhere...........................

As with Charlie Reese's article, they are NO different than our Politicians.

IOW, there is no one who cannot be bought....................just the price may be different.

She will get the votes needed to destroy her countries economy, just as sure as WE have screwed ours into the wall.

Being a Political Whore/Monger, is no different in Germany, or the USA.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 17:15 | 1609950 falak pema
falak pema's picture

The USA survived the mega debt of the WW2 period. The EU zone can survive the USD meltdown, provided it shields itself from the rampaging vulture HFs that are fed on Zirp, US carry trade, the naked derivative pile up. WIthout strong legislation to put a clamp on this the new construct becomes diffcult. Basically, financial EU has to have the balls to declare war on the US Oligarchies who are both sucking the FED teat for handouts to deleverage their toxic debts onto the public sector and at the same time funding x factored derivative bets on Zirp by their lending to Hfs for the mad speculative plays on EU sovereigns that will destroy longer term constructs for short term rip-offs.

If the ECB and the EU sovereigns have the balls to say "fuck off" to the same PDs, who are doing tilted table plays on both sides of the field, they could make a valid case. They would also have the backing of the BRICS and of ME sovereigns as the growth pump would work on a positive but slow basis. There would be budget restrictions and debt hair cuts and tax increases that would slow the recovery. But they would save the world economic structure which is now global. 

What happens to the US economy would depend on the Ability of the US political class to cut back debt, cut back governement spending and kick start selective infrastructure growth badly needed in US.And kill those Pds who are hocked to hell on derivatives. 

We need cojones and firm political will and vision. Lets see how Germany faces its tipping point moment in post WW2 history.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 21:31 | 1610532 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

So far Iceland is the only nation whose people have had the will to stand up to politicians willing to sell them into serfdom.   The Germans may do so as  well. 

The American populace has shown little will to throw out its corrupt politicians who are all too willing to sell them into indentured servitude.

Mon, 08/29/2011 - 02:57 | 1611040 fajensen
fajensen's picture

And why should they? As long as the USD is good money, they neither have to work nor produce anything of value; they want something, all they have to do is Print!

The USD is the worlds problem because the world is holding it (the bag)!

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 15:52 | 1609779 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Too many critical tiles fell off the EU shuttle on the way up.

Re-entry into reality is going to be a bitch.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 15:53 | 1609780 Sufiy
Sufiy's picture

Not so fast guys...


Bailout: CNBC: EU Working on ‘Radical’ Plan for Banks


  We have the news that QE3.0 can be now a coordinated action between central banks - EU is In - as this report suggest.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 15:53 | 1609782 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

So how marvelous. So does this mean that we can 'price in' EUR down?

Fucking NOT.

Seriously, this crap is so absurd. If EUR hits 1.50 this week, I wouldn't get any more disenfranchised,


Sun, 08/28/2011 - 15:58 | 1609792 Wolferl
Wolferl's picture

A good analysis of German politics. Much better than that "Fourth Reich" BS.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:02 | 1609799 MadMonkIvan
MadMonkIvan's picture

Her entire coalition is schizophrenic about what to do. The CSU want the weak countries thrown out of the euro. Some of the CDU will vote against Merkel because they dont want to pay, and Ursula von der Leyen - who featured on ZH a few days back for demanding collateral - is actually an arch federalist who wants the "United States of Europe" which puts her demands in a bit of a different light. Klaus Regling over at the EFSF believes that Germans are too pessimistic, and that the fundamental data in all euro countries is improving! (Seriously - quote at end of this article:,1518,782925,00.html )

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:07 | 1609811 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

It is my understanding that the opposition parties are even more in favor of EU / Greece bailouts.

If you live there you have no one to vote for.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:05 | 1609806 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

Whether Murkle stays or goes in Germany  is just as irrelevant as who wins the next President election in the United States (it won't be Ron Paul).

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:07 | 1609807 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

No matter what happens in September, the trend is set. Western economies are rotting out at the core. And the rot is spreading and permeating. 

At some point, extend and pretend reaches a point of no return where every maneuver just accelerates economic decline, discontent and disunity. It's the inevitable consequence of delusionary policies inherited from 30 years ago. The Freewheeling money printing era is turning sour. The construct of globalization is falling apart. 

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:53 | 1609921 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 The Men In Black, must be laughing their asses off!   In Area 51...

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:31 | 1609865 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Tyler, I really enjoy the pieces you put out on Europe, please continue them.

Europe is such a huge piece of the puzzle, and many of us Americans do not know as much as we would like to.

Special thanks to our European Repliers, I very much appreciate your on the ground observations.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:40 | 1609884 Fuh Querada
Fuh Querada's picture

You may like to check out Egon von Greyerz' interview with James Turk of Goldmoney - interesting perspective on both Switzerland and money printing in the EU.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 17:08 | 1609943 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

That is an excellent interview... I have watched it twice and garnered a bit more the second time...

Egon von Greyerz has been around a long time and has excellent working knowledge of the banks of Swiss, Germany, UK, et al...

His comments re; Switzerland are very interesting.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:32 | 1609870 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

No banking crisis in the eurozone:

Boring world we live in.


Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:30 | 1610127 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Remember when "radical" was a dirty word? No, not the 60s...3 years ago. Now everything is "radical"'s heard so often you'd think a valley girl is doing their copy editing.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:37 | 1609874 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Assuming the Merkel decides not to support the Euro back up. WHat happens when the Euro construct tanks?

To the world economy. By all accounts we are back in a deflationary spiral that will make 2008 look like hors d'oeuvre. 

So is that a scenario that is something we can face...I would love all those who laugh at the Euro construct try and grasp what the ensuing USD deconstruct will mean to their home economy. 

No blitzkrieg strategy will allow the world to kick start a new wealth construct after that mayhem. The west will be flat on its back. The remaining, residual growth only in the new economies. Given that those very Oligarchs, they will still have their wealth, will put none of it in high cost, low growth, western economies. The hilarity that ZH feels at seeing the Eu collapse will be short lived; its aftermath bitter lemons. To put it mildly.

I don't see what the US economy will propose to its the hands of the same guys who were the initiators of the ponzi. Happy days are here again!

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 17:11 | 1609949 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

One of the prime reasons for introduction of the Euro currency was to 'avoid more economic conflicts that resolve into wars'...

The wars have been more expensive than any bail out could be. Add up the numbers for yourself...

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 17:29 | 1609988 falak pema
falak pema's picture

See my post above on this.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 20:14 | 1610391 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

" R " u living in Gumby land?  The Europeans couldn't start a fire!  Head back to the " Flint ya tool"..


   Seriously/ Snidley Whipsaw? A cartoon character?  Hey Snidley are you Pre War or  Post war ya tool. 


       Hey Snidley why is the  ( eur ) valued? Ya tool!   Hey Snidley If the eur was ( Northern Europe it would be ( Deutchmarks ya tool!)

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 17:40 | 1610016 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Aaahh.....but the usa has many third world characteristics. Europe may be down for the count, but dont count out the usa. We can still grow. We are as anti union as any successful third world country. With no serious currency competition we can keep growing and maintain hegemony subsidized by mercantilist economies.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:38 | 1609880 djsmps
djsmps's picture

The POTUS is scheduled to speak today at 5:00 pm EDT. Any guesses as to when he'll actually start the speech?

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 17:12 | 1609952 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Do you think he is going to say anything that he hasn't said before?

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:40 | 1609886 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Germany doesn't have the stomach to get tough with deadbeat countries if they ran the EFSF, and they risk getting dragged under under themselves. It's Kaput. That's it for the nasty anti-democratic European Union, the arrogant utopian elitist dream.


We're just waiting for the EU to cry "Uncle" and stop wasting anymore of everyone's time. Good riddance to supranationalist socialism. Spreading the risk of failing sovereign socialism was just another form of socialism.


Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:46 | 1609904 kito
Sun, 08/28/2011 - 17:14 | 1609958 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

'The Flying Roubinis' a great circus routine that shouldn't be missed...

But a one trick pony when economics is at issue...

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:32 | 1610133 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Sounds like an unscrupulous sex maneuver...perhaps involving turning a trick with a pony.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:42 | 1610165 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Great comment! +1  Who is inline for the  ECB seat?

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 22:24 | 1610632 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Tortellini? No, that's not it...oh, yeah...Tre {card} monti!

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 16:48 | 1609909 Segestan
Segestan's picture

Oh, and I read Germany was going to use this as a 4th Reich.... tigers , lions, bears and and and,,.Nazi's.. Oh my!!

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 17:21 | 1609959 Justaman
Justaman's picture

Whoever thought that the decision was a good one to meld multiple countries into one currency at the time it happened, needs to have their meds upped.  The zone was a bad idea from the beginning and has never worked to my knowledge in history.  Back when it was concieved and implemented, my first thought was there goes 17 or so places to hide during times like we have now. 

It was designed as a overarching movement to an eventual one world order (even though they told us the region needed it to compete on the world stage).  They are still on the path to make this reality but they just may have to go to plan B or C if this story is true and timing will continue to be way off.  Merkel may not be the woman for the job. 


Sun, 08/28/2011 - 17:28 | 1609984 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Kick that commie bitch out of there. Next up : Sarkozy. Please?

In other news, September 20, Bernanke will probably announce QE3.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 17:34 | 1610003 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Last man standing wins.


Sun, 08/28/2011 - 20:18 | 1610407 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Plus Infinity! Great remark!

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 17:44 | 1610021 Justaman
Justaman's picture

I think someone has gotten to Roubini and changed his ways.  He used to be a debt realist not that long ago but, in my view, is approaching a Stiglitz view of the world.  Poor guy, that new mortgage has got to be a bitch.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:00 | 1610048 Volaille de Bresse
Volaille de Bresse's picture


"Last man standing wins.



I hope it's ironic : if the Euro fails the Chinese will be beaucoup unhappy with its demise. They'll lose their shirt a second time. 


From a Chinese point of view that'll make one more reason to go kick Uncle Sam's butt cos they'll hold you accountable for that demise. Make no mistake : we Europeans are the cushion between you and the yellow men who for some time now have been dying to show you who's the real boss. 


Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:13 | 1610077 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Hey Snidley did ya run out of " Cheap Cubans & Sombreros?"  Still selling time shares to the { Jupiter Island  Folk} ?


   Is your thatched hut working out for you?  Loser! I still won't junk your trolling  { Cadaver}...  


                                                                                                                                                                              Yen Cross to  You...

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:15 | 1610083 gnomon
gnomon's picture

The euro is on the way to failure, only the timing is in question.

The u.s. dollar is on the way to failure, only the timing is in question.

So flip a coin, preferably a gold or silver one, and make sure it lands in YOUR pocket.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:55 | 1610202 SPAREPARTS
SPAREPARTS's picture

Merkel leads Germany not all of the Euro countries, Merkel doesnt want germany precieved as the instgator or cause so Merkel played along, but push now is coming to shove and Germany is being coraled into being co-signer for the whole shebang, german politcal leaders want ,german people wont let it happen, Merkel will come out leader, better than our leaders forsure you can bet me on that.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 19:02 | 1610225 SPAREPARTS
SPAREPARTS's picture

Euro could hold together with Merkel lead, shink it ditch 6-8 of them and move on to something more doable

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 19:07 | 1610239 pspengle
pspengle's picture

You seem to overlook the fact that the Sept 23 vote will be "prejudiced" by the decision of the Bundesverfassungsgericht on Sept 7, the very day when the EFSF and the Greek package goes into the parlamentary process. Chances for consent of the court to the Euro-Coup on May 9, 2010 are slim now, at least on the surface when one listens to statements of other constitutional Organe, eg the president, the president of the Bundestag and not the least the Bundesbank.

Think of what is coming as Angela Merkel's first Schröder moment with a vengeance. For Schröder vote of confidence worked after 0911, he failed in 2005 even though in the ensuing new elections his party was still a bit stronger than the CDU (alone).

Sure, Germany is in a crisis, but one of parlamentary government, not a constitutional crisis. If this kind of government slyly bypassing the Grundgesetz persists however, one has to call a spade a spade: Weimar redux.


Sun, 08/28/2011 - 20:16 | 1610398 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Snidley Whipsaw! You owe me an ( Apology)  Ya tool!

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 20:35 | 1610440 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I have Question for Cdad! I respect  that person.   If the / Fed does a twist?/   What is your opinion on the ( Debt) on the short side of the curve?



                            Thank You, Yen Cross

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 22:25 | 1610636 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Is "unyield" a word?

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 22:04 | 1610595 markar
markar's picture

As always, it's about saving the banks. ECB doesn't give a rat's ass about the taxpayers or national sovereignty, but ultimately will do what the Bundesbank directs. On the political side, I suspect Merkel has a yoke around her neck by Deutsche Bank telling her essentially, if we go down, you're going with us.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 22:58 | 1610707 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Merkel retire to Greece? I suspect she prefers the south coast of Turkey at this point...or perhaps a sunny spot in Thailand will do nicely.

Mon, 08/29/2011 - 02:42 | 1611037 hotei108
hotei108's picture

Germany will bail......not bail out.

Mon, 08/29/2011 - 08:37 | 1611237 janus
janus's picture

helmut fuckin kohl, are you kidding me?  i haven't heard that name since, what,, clinton was that john boehner lookin dude; what was his name, shraeder or something like that.  kohl was bush I, reagan and carter.  i tell you what, heir kohl put just the right spin on those words; did he not?

powerful stuff, chancellor.

i wonder which is a clearer sign of hopeless addiction to ZH:

1) the fact that i cannot sleep and think only of this site and the markets (and news) it covers.

2) the fact that i'm leveraging a not-too-terrible summer flu as an excuse to stay home all day and read ZH.

i guess i'll try and get a few hours sleep after the opening bell -- i'm not makin any pretend bets till at least an hour in.

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