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September NFP Prints At 103,000, Beats Consensus, Even As U-6 Comes At Highest Since December 2010, Manufacturing Jobs Lost
So much for the recession? September NFP prints at 103,000 on expectations of 60,000, with August revised to 57,000 from that roulette busting double zero. The unemployment rate held at 9.1 percent, as expected. From the report: "The increase in employment partially reflected the return to payrolls of about 45,000 telecommunications workers who had been on strike in August. In September, job gainsoccurred in professional and business services, health care, and construction. Government employment continued to trend down." Average hourly earnings also came in line with expectations at 0.2%, with the previous revised from -0.1%, to -0.2%. Yet not all is good: manufacturing jobs declined by 13K on expectations of an unchanged number. And, oh yes, real unemployment, U6, printed up from 16.2% to 16.5%, the highest since December 2010.
U6:
From the report:
Both the labor force and employment increased in September. However, the civilian labor force participation rate, at 64.2 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 58.3 percent, were little changed. (See table A-1.)
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) rose to 9.3 million in September. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.)
In September, about 2.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, about the same as a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)
Among the marginally attached, there were 1.0 million discouraged workers in September, down by 172,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.5 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in September had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.)
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Oh Lord. Queue the trolls.
Look! One got the first post! Gratz Troll!
Who pissed in your Cheerios?
This is a direct result of Obama's previous jobs bills. It took some time, but those investments are finally paying off. This is yet another example of the success of fiscal and monetary stimulus. For those libertarians who STILL don't get it, the following equation explains the result:
AGREGATE DEMAND -> MORE SPENDING -> INCREASED SALES -> STRONG CONSUMER ECONOMY
Libertarians have been DEAD wrong for the last 5 years. Where's total Armageddon and economic collapse? Where's the hyperinflation? I'm still waiting.
u forgot to end with your closing sarcasm tag /SARC to signify that your entire comment was sarcasm... it was sarcasm, right?...
right?
"The increase in employment partially reflected the return to payrolls of about 45,000 telecommunications workers who had been on strike in August.
Oh, it wasn't sarcasm, he's serious(ly delusional).
And the real number for unemployment isn't really calculable, as no one knows how many have given up and are eating on savings, exist in homeless shelters without unemployment benefits, went overseas and are STILL looking for work, etc. The real number closest is probably John Williams' at Shadowstats, and even it should haunt every politician in WDC with endless nightmares.
Play with the numbers all you want; the truth will piss everyone off, and the darkness is still coming. I don't get any thrills from this; it's already a miserable time to be unemployed, broke, young and hopeless, old and without prospects of getting back on the job, or anything else except already wealthy and connected.
Then again, it will suck for them too, after a while. Beans, bullion, bullets, beer, what else have you put by?
What are they standing in line for?
Tyler is amazing. He'll take an incredibly bullish report and nitpick the smallest pessimistic tidbits he can find and make it sound like it was bad!
The term permabear doesnt even begin to describe whats going on in his mind.
It's not a case of what Tyler says or anyone else for that matter. Are you incapable of critical thinking?
Repeat after me: THE.ECONOMIC.DATA.RELEASES.HAVE.LOST.ALL.CREDIBILITY
hahaha...good one! yer just pulling our crank, right? right?
There is no crank.. the report was the best economic news we got all year. But I guess if you look at the world with shit stained glasses, everything looks like shit?
"the report was the best economic news we got all year"
HAHAHAHAHA!
103,000 - 45,000 = 58,000
US Median HOUSEHOLD income: $50,046/yr from here.
58,000 * $50,046 = $2,902,668,000/yr
We're all fucking saved!!!
<saddles up his unicorn and rides off into the crepuscular sunset>
Calculated Risk
So how do I put this politely...
STFU shaxmatist, you Obummer-bot, Bullshit Barry the Wall Street puppet, TARP lovin', sock puppet shill...
If this was the best economic news all year we are doomed.
pods
Right, because we're going to be able to treat, teach, and recover striking workers our way out of this recession. The glasses are on your face.
From the decidedly perma-bullish and mainstream NY Times: "The private sector added 137,000 jobs in September, although that included about 45,000 Verizon workers who had been on strike during August and returned to work by September. As has been the case throughout most of the downturn and tepid recovery, health care and education were among the strongest sectors, adding 45,000 jobs in September."
If you don't get my treat and teach reference, do some research on how service sector employment is a cost and does not improve underlying economic structure. Manufacturing jobs, which would actually help us pay down debt, have been lost. This is bad news, not being nitpicky here.
I'm with ya Shax. Details are for losers!
Tyler your ridiculous, and... and when will you learn that UNemployment does not matter?!
Only EMployment matters!
Dang!
?...and?
"He peed on the Dude's rug?"
"Fuckin' A, man."
The August number was revised from 0 to 57K. If you don't see any shenanigans going on, you're fucking retarded.
Everything is under control.
Watch them spin this as positive news.
Unemployment hasn't gone down (at all). Manufacturing jobs lost. No positive change... but we beat the estimates of a handful of analysts who are wrong more than 50% of the time. Woohoo! It's bullish! </sarc>
I could tell by the erasure marks all over the report.
Just all lies and manipulation at this point.
If this wasn't more of the same it would be interesting. The numbers suck and pretty much everyone knows it. We continue to lose jobs, but somehow we always come out on top.
For a complete list - http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
When is that U6 crowd gonna finaly burn the fed down ? Maybe the fed needs to print one or two more rounds before it gets to that.
But SD1, don't you see? There's the solution to all our problems...we just need 250,000 workers each month to go on strike and then return to work the following month! All hail the BLS!
3...2...1
Futures seemed to like it...
Dollar is in the process of tanking (again)
thats why the system in fiat money is broken,,,,,the only way the stock market goes up is if dollar weakens,,,,if we continue to weaken the dollar forever oil goes up forever......thats why the system has to change right there commodities need the gold standard and the stock market needs fiat money,,,,,introduce Reference point gold....no of course oil priced in gold probably won't go over well with the populace....
"We'll worry about that next quarter" said the Bernank to Jeethner as they warmed up the Fed-copter for action... "Have you got a better plan, Timmah?"
So an increase of 58k workers, lower than the forecast 59k is what actually happened... but good old knee jerk "we're saved" wall street response lol And its still 9.1% unemployment but everything is ok now, all in on the hedge funds and derivatives ponzi scheme!
Loved the daily shows piece on occupy wall street.... Hippy Nazis XD lol
.
does the dot represent a comment -- if so, how to view?
He's a more efficient worker... can post more comments " . " by being to lazy to write...
It originally said "..." but then he has second thoughts and went back and edited it.
When market moving rumor tools are spent, move back to fixed data. The fix is in and here's the ramp. horseshit.
The Ramp will be Faded as we reached the "saturation level" and profit taking will ensue shortly, see ya @ 1010SP!
That's 100+ ES points in four days... I've a feeling tho, that unless Europe finds a way to have their bankrupt governments recapitalize their bankrupt banks and at the same time not let the PIIGS default, this bear rally squeeze will fade next week.
These numbers are sooo open to revision they are next to worthless and yet the day trading lemmings jump off the cliff anyway.
I don´t buy the hopium. I stay sober
do U.S. teachers collect unemployment during summer holidays, and if so, are included in the septembers NFP when they return to work?
i was told they collect reguler paycheck
They do not collect unemployment.
its a celebration bitchez.
now, allow me to show you how the headfake game works. this fucking slut closes red today.
Probably time to chop the bulls horns now, certain we're now embarked on a no risk rally.
Have you had your personal time with any of the robots yet?
Learned the hard way never stick my weenie in things that got smoke coming out of'em. Them machines working overtime, these days. Hot metal.
So fucking horny though.
This shot goes on for at least another month now.....
Or so they want everyone to believe.
Wow! 2000 jobs/STATE/MONTH?... yes!! thing are so great!!
Oh boy! Nevermind the reality. It's Hunter S. Thompson time. SPYs are up 1.2% now. These guys are insane. I"m short short short. Holding on for dear life...
Good luck. I think you're on the right side of the trade short term, but who really knows? I sold all my puts except LULU, and I'm taking a beating there right now, but I can hold for the next dive. If this week is the beginning of the relief rally I've been expecting, I'll sell those puts on the dip and get long for a month or two.
Maybe santa will come early.
I believe in santa. Dont let me down, old man.
Geez. Is everybody working as teleprompter operator for Obama?
Funny you should say that as Santelli just called Mark Zandi's analysis, " part of Obama's stimulus agenda."
fukin' hilarious!
Sweet, time for FAS.
The more they manipulate, the greater the coming crash.
Well then... I guess more FED action is out of the question? I still call BS...
We all know FED action is NEVER out of the question... Even when its publically 'out of the question' its still doing its thing... Magicking up some money out of thin air....
I give this rally about 15 minutes. then red. Or hold those little stock ieds over the weekend.
The longest 15 mins ever
;-)
Ouch! Santelli just after infered Zandi was bearish on the numbers only because it suits Obama's agenda for the freaking Jobs Bill!
Sweet!
What do we need a $500 billion jobs bill for? Hiring is off the hook now! Right?
Anyone saw the deer?
Wonder what the birth death model is.
B/D = -43K
Glenn Beck tells listeners to take money out of big banks and Wall St, a 'verified attack' is coming on Wall St 'early next week'
Beck Has 'Verified ... An Attack On Wall Street Next Week' Tells Listeners To Have Cash And Food Rea - YouTube
I can't watch vid links till i get home...
Financial or physical... I wouldn't be surprised if some 'protesters' start bricking and fire bombing store fronts there.... But they won't actually be protesters, they'll be inciters trying to undermine the occupy wall street movement. Theres been a steady escalation of antagonism on the protesters by the authorities the last couple of weeks.
And then Fox and all other networks will jump on it and condone riot police waltzing in with tanks etc. Could be a very powderkeggy week next week... I for one, have my cash (its shiny and 'an archaic store fo wealth') and my food stored. I've also got some of that paper crap with dollar signs on it, just in case i run out of toilet paper ;-)
And if anyone says "that won't happen in america" take a look at how they treated your WWI veterans when they wanted their bonus payment during the depression... Tanks, bayonets and swords on the 'evil communists intent on the downfall of the government'...
I am reading the book "1984." Guy talks about how the gov't was off in it's projection of pairs of boots needed. So his job was to revise the old projections to make Big Brother look good. But he says something like, "The number doesn't matter. Whether the projection was higher, lower, or dead-on, A LOT OF PEOPLE HAD TO GO WITHOUT THE BOOTS THEY NEEDED."
Seems very much like the current employment situation. This "beat" is of little consolation to those without a job.
Goldstein's dead. Go read another book.
that would be Orwell idiot...
try reading A book...
Goldstein is a major character in the book 1984. Try reading THAT book..
Can't take these seriously when you can have a "revision" from zero to 58,000. How can they even call that a revision with a straight face?
Sometimes, I like to think that the computer overlords really have taken over and the numbers guys are just throwing out sacrifices to keep them happy...
Yeah, when the error rate is 50% of your number you are basically just looking at just noise.
If you look at any straight line close enough, it will become very jagged. That is what we are looking at.
pods
worthless data now
how does this make gold and silver go up? to me....gold and silver should go down if the economy looks like its getting better, since that would mean no double dip, no QE etc....but it works the opposite way. deflation makes gold go down and if the market goes up then gold does as well. wierd. maybe dollar connected.
That is what I was wondering. Might be some short covering.
so i fthe market keeps levitating up up up on air, how will berbanker ever get to print? or is wall street going to work this just perfect so that they get to fuck both holes?
Exactly, on one hand everyone expects printing to come, of course after the 'market drop', yet they keep pumping out unicorn numbers.
Wall St occupation is fishy, set up by Tides Foundation and unions and a bunch of other 'subversive' groups in my opinion....and Glenn Beck warns a major attack will happen next week.
I would be in a single stock or have money in a Wall St bank now no matter how the data is spun.
Beck Has 'Verified ... An Attack On Wall Street Next Week' Tells Listeners To Have Cash And Food Rea - YouTube
If market fails to hold some rally with this (good but bad) news, will start looking ugly into next week for bulls.
At this point we should all just buy all in... I'm tired of fighting my brain. Go full retard and buy buy buy because even if your right and the market crashes..this manipulated shadow of a market is going to implode so bad nothing will be worth shit...And even precious metals wont help anymore, you will be shooting your neighbor for a loaf of bread.
then you can have meat with your bread!
I have the feeling anything and everything is being done to ensure the widely reported number does not exceed 10%.
Goodbye QE. Goodbye jobs bill.
Thats what it looks like to me. I think at this point theyre flailing and have no clear plan.
there are gonna be big deviations on each side of the "expected" number, in other breaking news, the sun rose in the east this morning.
No news here but for interest rates, tick, tock, tick, tock.... up a little bit at a time, but is a trend forming?
Until the next freak out.
I will still never understand (a little help, here?) how 60K or 100K or 250K in a MONTH offsets 400K or even 200K or even by some miracle only 100K NEW CLAIMS per WEEK. What am I missing here? Am I retarted or what?
Get with the new calculus.
I do not care about gov(faked) data, i do what the market is "telling" me and right now it tells me SELLLLLLLL SHORRRRTTTTTT!
I will take the other side of your trade for now if you are talking about the market in general. If you have specific shorts in mind would you kindly list them as well as any recommended entry points?
Thank you in advance.
TPT:
Since you are ready to take the "other side", what's the point?!?!
I love checking CNN Money right after these things come out just to see the liberal spin on the numbers. But U6 does not disappoint and is more reflective of the rebaseline employment land. Now the headline appears, "Hiring picked up." More games.
I don't understand why there is not more discussion on the fact that unemployment has rebaselined (established a new trough).
Green Shoots!!
Since April payrolls up +72k a month vs 161k prior 7 months.
must.get.more.government.injections
Green shoots when Obama is begging for huge jobs bill. Something doesnt add up here, big time.
Obama is campaigning for reelection. Nothing more.
He knows that jobs bill doesn`t have a hope in hell of passing. But with unemployment at 9.1% he wants to be able to tell his `base`that it is the GOP`s fault because they wouldn`t pass his jobs bill.
He is playing the reelection game. That is all.
There will be no election, I guarantee you that.
more like bong hits as i see it. i fail to see the excitement...but i like the coverage "as if it is." "government injections" are pretty boring anyways are they not?
Government Injections. Like the Tuskeegee Syphilis injections?
since I don't believe in god, I'll offer a little prayer to the Tylers. Please guys, find something today to use as an RPG against this sputtering spruce goose rally.
Poor coordination between Obama and the BLS.
Can't scare Congress to pass a jobs bill if the highly adjusted jobs number comes in at BETTER THAN EXPECTED.
Futures are flying.
Looks like another 2009 "Green Shoots" rally.
You wanna retire someday?
EWZ. Dollar cost average, to hell and back if necessary, for your investable time horizon.
Diversification is for pussies.
That 'fing reversal on Tuesday might have been a bit more than a simple short squeeze and wilding algos (the 2011 equiv of March 09?)
Please no, I can't take another year year of staring at my charts in disbelief.
Up 7 or 8 on S&P 500 E-minis is hardly "flying".
Sunshine, Lollipops, and Rainbows
Pink unicorns jumping over sparkle rainbows, while theyre also trying to frighten everyone into doom and gloom jobs bills and stimulus. I bet this flies green for an hour, then the rug gets pulled out.
Discussions of U6 bring out the troll in me.
U6 includes people who are not even looking for a job.
Fuckwads who wont look for a job, or feel they are too good to take the mcjob available, get no sympathy from me.
Mary Antoinette was too generous. The idle U6 deserve a shit sandwich and a large side order of reality
Ah, so EVERYONE represented by U6 is lazy and deserves to eat shit sandwiches? Nice generalization Einstein. Go live with your pals in Moscow.
This is such a weak number. Nearly 1/2 of the gains were the rehiring of 45,000 striking Verizon workers. How the hell is that a net addition to the workforce?
Lol! Well, if this is a real trend-reversal, then it is the first leg of hyperinflation. AGQ 1,000 bichez.
If you think markets are moving up or down based on news, you are mistaken. It is all being manipulated by 10 or 15 super rich super powerful individuals (find out what J. Rockefeller told Bill Moyers years ago). Ofcourse ..Goldman Sachs is the instrument through which this insidious group rules the world...Rastani was absolutely correct in his observation, but there is much more beyond all this. What meets the eye is only part of reality.
Good numbers. Govt shed another 35K - Professionals added 25K - rebalancing is underway.
What is this "job" they speak of? As if everybody has the same homogenous "job"?
I want to see the average dollar value of each "job" added and compare that with a year and five years ago before I celebrate.
Im waiting for CNBC to have on a CEO who has just hired 500 or 1,000 people. Where are they? Fact is, these numbers are a complete fabrication.
We're SAVED!!!
tell the wall street protesters to stop whinning, stop complaining, get out of your house slippers.......
....we finish in the green by 1-2% again, so goes europe so goes the US.....
so I guess we do not need the jobs bill, or QE, or twist anymore. start raising interest rates the world is saved! Good luck being short right now as the election campaigning is in full swing, the repubs can't use jobs right now as a soap box, the dems are back in control....spin, spin, spin! sit back and watch the rally......bullshit wins everytime.
Yea, time to raise interest rates and abandon stimulus jobs bills, Twist, QE, ZIRP....lets see how that works. I say this has a lifespan of 1 hour.
Actually, higher interest rates IS what is needed. When the toilet is flushed, it is replenished with clean water.
Just raise rates? When everything is required to run on 0 rates? This is all like looking at an ER patient on life support whose leg just twitched, and concluding he's ready to win the NYC marathon tomorrow.
My point is that ZIRP IS the problem. We need to crash this jalopy first. Then find a solid foundation.
you and sheep have it right....unfortunately what needs to happen and what will happen are very opposed.....any sniff of double dip and the campaign dollars are worthless, even the revisions are BS, hard to beleive that they can still get it so wrong 90 days ago....must be using commodore 64's in the gov't reporting agencies to save money.
Will be very difficult to fight the melt up into year end as this has embedded itself until the next report, ISM will now be paraded around as it moves off of near recession levels as the rest of the fix is already planned. It will be an economic mind fck because ES will now trade off of perception......and we all know the saying about perception and reality.
double post....sorry
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB500014240527487035339045766131912421...
Great News!
Jobs!
I Hope.
there are no replies to any of the comments. its just a rant blog
True.
Rosie the Riveter (The one who worked at the B-24 plant at Willow Run Airport in Detroit Michigan) would not be pissing and moaning on a morning like this. She would slam down that cup of Folgers Harsh Blend, and start pounding them rivets. No 401k, Pension, Health care. Just pounden them rivets. Dusk til Dawn.
What a bunch of wacko winnen ranting pussys on this blog.
Oohh. Give me a mamama Minus you pussys... It Hurts..
Rosie didn't have to suck her boss' dick to get that job. I'm all for war, it's the tried-and-true avatar for employment in America. Look at WWII, all those jobs!
Announced Job Cuts in U.S. More Than Triple From Year Ago, Challenger Says
Oh, well cant let reality get in the way of another staged futures pump! Dont worry, theyll pull the rug out in an hour.
This Verizon strike has me hung up. There were approx 45k people striking. If you add 45k to last month’s 57k gain you get 102k jobs in August. Then if you subtract the 45k from this month you get 58k. So adjusting for Verizon, I see this month as worse than last month.
And if it's an election year, the price of gasoline will magically fall too.
Participation rate declined -0.1%. Size of civilian laborforce contracted by 322,000. This was a net loss not gain. Birth/death model must have added massive numbers.
Right them newborn kids today will save us! Put em to work making Apache helicopters.
Of course nobody takes seriously any data that eminates from the USA. Its reputation for dishonesty on reporting data now equals that of North Korea.
All markets are now simply a smoke, mirrors and manipulation game, busted. There is no price discovery, just the Fed and TPTB. Bernanke and Timah have managed to totally destroy the credibility of all things to do with the USA not to mention obliterate the middle class and prepare USA for a long period of intercene strife.
Only one thing can reset the USA, remove all the corrupt politicians, banks, banksters, regulators, judiciary and so forth and that is a military coup. That wont happen of course....unless the banksters make a habit of paying off all police forces to bash and 'accidentally' kill protesters across the country. Congressmen being owned by banks will of course do nothing except support such things.
The USA is treading unknown paths where everything thought entirely impossible and total fantasy can within an instant become fact.
Black swans and butterflies will determine the future of the US and Europe.
Looking at NSA size of laborforce vs SA size of labor force....season adjustments added 500,000. This is a huge adjustment.
OK so theyre suddenly off the 'We'll need huge stimulus and money printing at any minute' to now all is well? Why is that?
actually these elite bastards create a crises, then move in with a solution! the solution coming will seem like a miracle, but alas, it it's all an illusion to screw us double!
Texas construction is doing fine if you are in the mega mansion or apartment biz. As bad as the macros are, I hired five new people this week. I've never seen so many +15K sq ft homes going up.
take a look at any 3 month equity chart. Don't you get the game yet? Next week we go right back, deeper into the toilet.
Really? East coast is totally dead. South Florida gone from rotting corpse to bleached bones and soon, dust. No Wall Street bonuses = no buyers/builders from Jacksonville to Miami. Was down there a few weeks ago to look at a Toll Brothers development on the intercoastal in Jupiter--jackasses must have spent a 50 mil in shoring alone to sell a few middle market 700k-1.5 mil houses. The cranes are still running but I guarantee you that development is going precisely effing nowhere. Dodd Frank gonna hand their asses to them. No relief anywhere but rentals. I sure hope you're frontloading the shit out of those mansion jobs cause I think the party's just about over....
So much for the recession? Indeed. No Armageddon in sight; companies even hire more. Told-you-so.
Do you even have a job? Do you even know what a job is or what actual work entails?
I know of quite a few jobs that were created in September, all near minimum wage. A woman that a few months ago made $50k who now puts candles on a shelf at a mall store for $9 an hour and gets 20hrs a week.
But no that is all good news right? The economy will be saved on the backs of minimum wage workers. Get a brain, they come in handy.
Wake up dude........ the numbers are fake!! No extended jobs here. The morons marching on Wall ST are getting paid with your tax dollars called Stimulus. One organizer for the Working Families party just admitted on video that some of the people are getting paid!!!!
if the protesters actually blow up Wall Street i bet you'll see jobs galore!
DAX lifted a 100pt on this "good news" -- just to give it away _completly_ within 1.5hrs.
Muppets Show. Totally.