This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Shilling Shuns Stocks, Sees S&P At 800

Tyler Durden's picture


In an attempt to not steal too much thunder from Gary Shilling's thought-provoking interview with Bloomberg TV, his view of the S&P 500 hitting 800, as operating earnings compress to $80 per share, is founded in more than just a perma-bear's perspective of the real state of the US economy. As he points out "The analysts have been cranking their numbers down. They started off north of 110 then 105. They are now 102. They are moving in my direction." The combination of a hard landing in China, a recession in Europe, and a stronger USD will weigh on earnings and inevitably the US consumer (who's recent spending spree has considerably outpaced income growth) with the end result a moderate recession in the US. The story is "there is nothing else except consumers that can really hype the U.S. economy" and that is supported by employment but last week's employment report throws cold water in that. "Consumers have a lot of reasons to save as opposed to spend. They need to rebuild their assets, save for retirement. A lot of reasons suggest that they should be saving to work down debt as opposed to going the other way, which they have done in recent months. So if consumers retrench, there is not really anything else in the U.S. economy that can hold things up." While the argument that the US is the best of a bad lot was summarily dismissed as Shilling prefers the 'best horse in the glue factory' analogy and does not believe investors will flock to US equities - instead preferring US Treasuries noting that "everyone has said, rates cannot go lower, they will go up, they will go up. They have been saying that for 30 years."





Links to the three-part series that Shilling (and his hosts) describe can be found here (these are notes from the longer discussions):

Part 1 - Shilling Describes the key factors behind his recession call:

Consumers Are the Linchpin: The U.S. economy is being fueled these days by strong consumer spending, which increased in February by 0.8 percent, its best showing in seven months, after rising 0.4 percent in January. Retail sales rose 1.1 percent in February -- the fastest pace in five months -- while same-store sales advanced 4.7 percent. These numbers correlate with recent gains in consumer confidence and sentiment.


Spending, Saving and Debt: The support that consumer spending has received from less saving and more debt appears temporary. Household debt -- including mortgages, student loans, and auto and credit-card loans -- has fallen relative to disposable personal income, though. In my analysis, this is largely because of write-offs of troubled mortgages. Nevertheless, revolving consumer credit, mostly on credit cards, is no longer being liquidated.


Consumer Retrenchment: The data so far aren’t conclusive, but evidence of U.S. consumer retrenchment is emerging. Consumer confidence has moved up recently but remains far below the levels of early 2007 before the collapse in subprime mortgages set off the Great Recession. Real personal consumption expenditures growth has been volatile in recent months and falling on a year-on-year basis. Voluntary departures from jobs, another measure of confidence, may be decreasing. And consumer spending will no doubt have a big slide if my forecast of another 20 percent drop in house prices pans out.

Housing activity remains depressed, with the only signs of life coming from the multifamily component, which is being driven by the appetite for rental apartments as homeownership declines. Homeowners are losing their abodes to foreclosures; many can’t meet stringent mortgage-lending standards; some worry about homeownership responsibilities in the face of job uncertainty; and many have no desire to buy an asset that continues to fall in price.

What Oil Threat?: Recently, there has been great concern about $4 per gallon gasoline and whether, as in 2008, those high prices will act as a tax on consumer incomes and force drastic cutbacks in other purchases.


Part 2 - Shilling focuses specifically on the employment picture

Job openings were up 16 percent in February compared with a year earlier, but in a survey by the National Federation of Independent Business, a net zero percent of small-business owners said they planned to hire over the next three months. Furthermore, would-be entrepreneurs aren’t all that enthusiastic: Only 2.7 percent of job seekers started new businesses in the last quarter, down from 12 percent in the third quarter of 2009.

Job openings: The U.S. has a lot of job openings, but having endured huge layoffs in recent years, employers are being very picky in new hiring. Contrary to Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s assertion that high unemployment is mainly a cyclical concern that will be solved by economic growth, I believe that a big part of the problem is structural.


Business Cost-Cutting: During the sluggish business recovery that began in mid-2009, sales-volume increases for U.S. business have been tiny, and the ability to raise prices was very limited even as commodity and other input prices climbed until about a year ago. As a result, profit margins were threatened. Meanwhile, foreign competition has been fierce.


Manufacturing productivity: Labor-intensive factories producing items such as textiles or shoes have long departed American shores for low-cost venues abroad and may never return. Those that remain -- and the type of manufacturing that is coming back to the U.S. in the much ballyhooed “reshoring” -- is robot-intensive, highly automated production that requires limited labor. Manufacturing output has recovered from its recessionary low, though not to the previous peak. Yet output per person, a measure of productivity, after the usual recessionary decline, has resumed its robust upward trend.


Jobs up, profits down: As in the past, the large share of national income accounted for by high corporate profits is unlikely to last for long. In a democracy, neither capital nor labor keeps the upper hand indefinitely. Quite apart from the Obama administration’s determined effort to redistribute income in favor of lower-income households, the seeds of narrower profit margins have already been sown. In recent quarters, productivity growth has been tiny. Have we reached bottom in terms of cost-cutting? Industrial leaders say productivity- enhancing opportunities are never exhausted, but it is possible that the low-hanging fruit has all been picked, at least for now.


Corporate earnings implications: More jobs are about the only spur to household incomes, and consumer spending is the only source of strength in the economy this year. If new employees spend their paychecks freely, they could create more consumer demand, additional corporate revenues and profits, more jobs, and so on, in a self-feeding cycle. But, as I discussed in Part 1, new and old employees are more likely to retrench and precipitate a recession.

That would cause great disappointment for corporate profits. In conjunction with a major recession in Europe, a hard landing in China and foreign-earnings translation losses caused by a rising dollar, the operating earnings of S&P 500 companies could drop to $80 per share this year, compared with Wall Street analysts’ expectations of $104. That would almost guarantee a major bear market with a likely price-earnings ratio low of about 10. This implies that the S&P 500 index (SPX) would be around 800, a 43 percent drop from its recent level.


In Part 3, I’ll examine why the Fed may embark on a third round of quantitative easing if the economy weakens this year and whether Congress will be tempted to enact policies of its own to address a huge fiscal drag in 2013 as payroll and income taxes rise and unemployment benefits plunge.


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Wed, 04/11/2012 - 19:44 | 2336388 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



If there was a real market, this would be a sensible call.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 19:46 | 2336397 slewie the pi rat
slewie the pi rat's picture

Shilling is one of the smartest guys out there and he gets it.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 20:13 | 2336468 flacon
flacon's picture

This just in from.... CNBC:



Bernanke to Congress: We're Much Closer to Total Destruction Than You Think




BERNANKE: "Sustained high rates of government borrowing would both drain funds away from private investment and increase our debt to foreigners, with adverse long-run effects on U.S. output, incomes, and standards of living. "

Did Bernanke just divorce John Maynard Keynes? 




Wed, 04/11/2012 - 20:16 | 2336474 slewie the pi rat
slewie the pi rat's picture

Published: Wednesday, 9 Feb 2011


Wed, 04/11/2012 - 20:28 | 2336501 flacon
flacon's picture

Sorry, I didn't see that! Thanks for pointing that out to me! I guess Bernanke is still porking Keynes... 

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 21:08 | 2336570 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

fire your entire offense, financial survival now rests on your defense


Wed, 04/11/2012 - 21:25 | 2336591 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

Smart ass punks with hoodies should be reason enough...was his crack showing, too?

wtf needs a hoody in florida?

if the hoody is zipt, you must acquit

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 22:17 | 2336696 Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

Rehearsal for Sunday military parade? RT : Holy crap - fighter jets just went roaring across Pyongyang!/w7voa DJIA reversal from 13K is potentially an ominous sign. Dow Closes Below 13000 Mark

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 00:30 | 2336844 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The Bernanke 'Put' is not only going to save equity markets from yet another death spiral, but will pump them perpetually higher.


Just like it the Greenspan 'Put' did in 1999.

Just like the last Bernanke 'Put' did in 2007.

The bullshit sell-siders (who are playing with OPM, anyways) would never admit that fractional reserve chicanery could never perpetually float a bubble inflated with toxic fumes. That would cut against their business model. Muppets wanted always and forever.

The delusional bulls (who are pitifully playing in the world's most rigged casino with their own money) just can't see the forest through the 'green shoots,' and are impervious to history.



Thu, 04/12/2012 - 00:50 | 2336894 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture



Shilling appears to be no shill, but could be Amish if he shuns stocks.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 01:06 | 2336916 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture


is willing

For a small fee

or a billing

To say, or rather shill

As per the Master's Will.



Thu, 04/12/2012 - 02:55 | 2336972 Michael
Michael's picture

I want to see a toxicology report on this kid Treyvon. What makes a kid like this with a pack of skittles and an ice tea in his pockets go looking for trouble? Well he found it. The kind that made him dead.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 03:15 | 2337009 Michael
Michael's picture

Imaging the Federal Reserve discount rate will never again go up past ZIRP for the rest of the history of the USA just like Japan?

We got them right where we want them.

That goes for the low yield treasury bond rates as well.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 00:38 | 2336885 PersonalRespons...
PersonalResponsibility's picture

WTF, it was at night!  And who is not allowed to wear what they want in your book?  

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 21:43 | 2336631 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

I get a kick out this:



Wed, 04/11/2012 - 21:41 | 2336628 max2205
max2205's picture

Gary, meet Ben. I bet on Ben

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 03:06 | 2336646 Likstane
Likstane's picture


Thu, 04/12/2012 - 03:06 | 2336652 Likstane
Likstane's picture


Thu, 04/12/2012 - 03:06 | 2336707 Likstane
Likstane's picture


Thu, 04/12/2012 - 05:47 | 2337062 Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

Very important points to remember.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 20:18 | 2336481 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

nah, it's just CYA

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 20:28 | 2336497 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

This is easy for him to say, if things go wrong he can point to that and blame government. But he's part of the problem, so fuck Bernanke.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 22:50 | 2336728 DosZap
DosZap's picture

"Sustained high rates of government borrowing would both drain funds away from private investment and increase our debt to foreigners, with adverse long-run effects on U.S. output, incomes, and standards of living. "

Did Bernanke just divorce John Maynard Keynes?  No, he did the USUAL he LIED..................foreigners have already stopped buying to the tune of 60+% of oput degt.

HE is buying the debt,61@% of it.


First part was dead on, second was a fat ass lie.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 00:39 | 2336886 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture



"Sustained high rates of government borrowing would continue debasing the dollar, stealing more and more wealth from the American people, pushing them further toward poverty and putting the economy in deeper depression, along with losing its world reserve currency status, whereupon the American economy would implode, and America would collpase for all practical purposes."

Fixed it.

S&P 800?

Forget it.  Bernanke will keep pumping stocks while the dollar keeps losing value (from all the printing needed to keep pumping stocks).

We don't have to worry about declining stocks.   We have to worry about a declining dollar. 

Stock market collapse won't destroy America.   But currency collapse will.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 20:57 | 2336550 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture


usa is pulling a japan circa 1987-present w/ minor variations

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 22:34 | 2336718 chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

agree - the trolls are beginning out number the legitimate posters here-

disrespect Shiller all you want.. but you are  a f-ing idiot if you do so w/o a hundred of hours of research to base your opinion on

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 02:42 | 2336967 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Yeah, it's hard to think of anyone who has earned more credit for seeing emperor without his pyjammas on, and publishing it. That Case-Shilling housing report was really all you needed to know about, about the time Bernanke was saying "houses prices will never go down"; or whatever the exact idiocy was he came out with.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 15:45 | 2339102 durkdiggler
durkdiggler's picture

Shilling: Long treasuries, long US Dollar, short stocks, short commodities...


That to me, is not someone getting it, which to me is the problem. Old man, who has made his money over the last 30 years, and can't see or probably even accept things are changing.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 21:48 | 2336641 non_anon
non_anon's picture

my sentiment exactly, yet there are those that can trade and make money in a manipulated market, I for one, will not particpate in this corruption. I believe if everyone that wants to return to the rule of law and unfettered markets should not participate in the illusion.

my .000000000002

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 01:18 | 2336921 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Correct. And funny enough I've been calling SP at 800 here on the hedge for well over 6 months, and yet....hopium clearly springs eternal....until it doesn't....agree with the call ;)

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 02:46 | 2336970 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Dude; we just had a huge stock market rally; that was verrry profitable; you've been soo wrong for so long; why do you want to advertise this? And yes; once again, the tower of jello looks wobbly; and it makes sense to consider the possiblility that it could all faw-down and go boom. Being a stopped clock isn't really all that impressive.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:27 | 2337224 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

I think that Shilling is right, but that type of event would be extremely extremely deflationary, that would mean a huge amount of printing from the Fed.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 19:46 | 2336396 Gloomy
Gloomy's picture


Wed, 04/11/2012 - 19:47 | 2336399 slewie the pi rat
slewie the pi rat's picture

twice a day ain't bad

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 03:08 | 2336650 Likstane
Likstane's picture


Wed, 04/11/2012 - 22:06 | 2336683 jomama
jomama's picture

pretty sad that the best you can do is impersonate someone else.  

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 22:50 | 2336729 chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

posting this from my phone...cause most of you newbs need help

ive been tracking shiller for years

the fucker is,if any thing, slow and conservative...

he has been right on RE by 100%

trade to cash on DOW over 13000 & prepare to buy in when the SP breaks 1000..

Buy all the way... The Fed will print again....

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 19:47 | 2336401 Gloomy
Gloomy's picture

P.S.-I lost a bundle following this guys advice about stocks

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 19:57 | 2336432 Cursive
Cursive's picture


Maybe you should try Tony Robbins.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 20:02 | 2336453 Gloomy
Gloomy's picture

Naw-I just gave up and bought a bunch of PM's.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 20:23 | 2336492 Cursive
Cursive's picture


Well done.  Now, don't forget to be well-armed.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 23:19 | 2336774 yabyum
yabyum's picture

And repair the hole in your boat........or not.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 03:34 | 2337019 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Oh my god you're brilliant!  I am going to start advertising on ZH to repair boats and sell waterproof floating safes to the ZHers.  I'd considered selling boating insurance but with the way these people pilot their vessels I'd be bankrupt in one weekend.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 20:18 | 2336479 slewie the pi rat
slewie the pi rat's picture

Gloom, fixed income is his speciality and he nailed it

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 21:55 | 2336653 Likstane
Likstane's picture

get your own you theif

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 19:47 | 2336403 dolph9
dolph9's picture

What the economists never want you to realize, what they never want you to work out for yourself, is that stocks and bonds are actually correlated.

When you have a credit boom, as we've had for the past 30 odd years, bonds go up and yields go down because credit can increase and increase.  And stocks do well, because credit allows business growth and formation.

Stocks and bonds are CORRELATED.

We are now entering a period where both will do poorly.  Real resource contraints, and competition for them, drives up prices for energy and commodities in real terms.  Stocks can't do well in such an environment, inputs are too costly for businesses.  Bonds can't do well...huge intervention is required just to keep them going.

The whole thing will implode, including stocks and bonds.  Stay in cash and metals.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 19:55 | 2336429 veyron
veyron's picture

Bernanke suggested the same thing when someone asked about the effects of ZIRP on savers.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 20:04 | 2336454 jcrockett870
jcrockett870's picture

Aren't metals, to some degree, also correlated with stocks and bonds?  They seemed to be in '08.  Although they recovered faster than equities. 

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 21:25 | 2336595 flacon
flacon's picture

But those were paper metals. Metal metals disconnected - I know because I couldn't find a damn coin shop in the Philadelphia metropolitian area that would sell me any gold or silver in Feb 2009.... because they didn't have any! 


When gold finally hit $1000 in March 2009 I got a call from a coin dealer. Two Krugerrands (1978 & 1980) and a couple bags of junk silver. I snatched them all up. 



Wed, 04/11/2012 - 21:42 | 2336629 tempo
tempo's picture

A trillion $ in subprime student loans that will never be repaid is a big drag on any future recovery. Let us not forget the worldwide competitive wage is $1.25/hr w/o benefits (Foxconn which makes all of AAPL products and employs millions) will force wages and our std of living lower and lower over the next decade. SPX 800 would be the high side of my estimate (after the election of course).

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 00:51 | 2336895 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture



Stay in cash and metals.

The biggest threat ahead is currency collapse.  It's why Bernanke is hesitant about another round of QE.  He knows we're close to currency collapse, and QE3 might just do it.

So no, cash is not a good idea.  Get rid of the cash while it still has some value, buy PMs or any commodity that's in demand.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 19:48 | 2336408 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Turkey necks are EXCLUDED!

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 19:49 | 2336411 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

Between Art Cashin and this guy, ZH is tuning in to Google it, you might find it appealing.

Yeah, US consumers are going to suddenly focus on their saving and retirement...until the next IPad shows up. And rates have nowhere to go, period. Not up, not down, NOWHERE.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 20:45 | 2336530 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

That was wrong.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 21:01 | 2336557 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

Really? So where are treasurys going? Up?

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 21:37 | 2336620 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

Actually, I don't give two hoots about Treasurys. Your reference to the Lemmon party however was sick. I guess you thought you needed a shock/filth factor to sell your point.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 21:02 | 2336560 spinone
spinone's picture

Don't Google it!  Don't Google it!

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 21:29 | 2336604 dognamedabu
dognamedabu's picture

You are a horrible horrible person. 

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 19:53 | 2336423 Cursive
Cursive's picture

I think he's a bit optomistic.  Once we breach 1000, the bottom won't be 800. 

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 19:57 | 2336431 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

agree, basically...BUT as long as the Fed or whoever jacks up Futures in the middle of the night (midnight last being the latest in a long history of same) we will never see anywhere near 1000

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 20:09 | 2336446 Cursive
Cursive's picture


BUT?  Yes, I realize that it has been amazing how far this liquidity-induced rally has gotten.  We are approaching stall speed.  The yoy comparisons are getting harder and harder and it is difficult for policy makers to hide behind ZIRP4EVA and Operation Twist.  Housing never improved.  Consumer balance sheets are worse than March 2009.  Nothing was fixed, hell, nothing was addressed from a substantive level.  This effort was always about saving the banksters and Benron bought some time with window dressing for the "New Investor Class," i.e. the upper middle class and middle class muppets that cling so desperately to their dead-end jobs and 401k's.  You can only defy gravity for so long.  Prepare for terminal velocity.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 20:47 | 2336535 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

Sad but true.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 19:58 | 2336437 kengland
kengland's picture

Road is littered with dipshits like this. It's always just around the corner. Tell me, how does central bank intervention play into this forecast? I'm sure they all would just willingly allow this to happen right? I mean, this is a market right?

When will they get the fact that there is no freaking market - here or anywhere.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 19:59 | 2336440 gookempucky
gookempucky's picture

Consumers Are the Linchpin: The U.S. economy is being fueled these days by strong consumer spending, which increased in February by 0.8 percent, its best showing in seven months, after rising 0.4 percent in January. Retail sales rose 1.1 percent in February -- the fastest pace in five months -- while same-store sales advanced 4.7 percent. These numbers correlate with recent gains in consumer confidence and sentiment.

Its called paying more $ for the same shit from last year-only in a smaller box.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 20:44 | 2336529 fuu
fuu's picture

And what percentage of those dollars were government subsidized? 40%, 50%, 60%?

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 23:27 | 2336789 ekm
ekm's picture

So, so, so correct.

There are two ways of higher consumer spending:

1) By desire to spend more = Demand

2) By being forced to spend more = Inflation.

Sir, let's ask the ZH population:

Any guesses as to why the consumers are spending more: Is it #1 or is it #2?


Thu, 04/12/2012 - 00:57 | 2336905 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture



Its called paying more $ for the same shit from last year-only in a smaller box.

Correct.  Any perceived improvement in the economy is from higher prices.  

In real terms the economy is shrinking about 7% a year.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 20:01 | 2336445 Memphis10
Memphis10's picture

1.5% on a 10? Dayum... Too bad it's Shiller.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 20:02 | 2336450 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

These analytical folks have things to say and they are certainly more correct in their analysis than the bright future folks.

But correct is a word that need not mean anything about the future.

The future is defined by whimsical, arbitrary waves of government or central banker hands in the air.  These are random and essentially insulated from the reality of destroyed housing net worth.  They don't care about that.

They also can change the rules of accounting so that MBS can be carried in inventory at prices that are not even remotely reality.

All the analysis in the world won't help you when someone in power wants to take your money away.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 21:08 | 2336567 Cursive
Cursive's picture


All the analysis in the world won't help you when someone in power wants to take your money away.


True to a point.  I refer to "TPTB" plenty, but I also realize that only God is omnipotent.  Being the alpha dog(s) works until you meet your match.  I wouldn't have laid money on anyone stepping into the ring against Mike "Everybody's got a plan until they get hit" Tyson, but Buster Douglas and then Evander Holyfield (multiple times) showed us different.  I don't care how good you are, there's always someone who can whip your ass.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 20:03 | 2336455 Gloomy
Wed, 04/11/2012 - 20:05 | 2336458 Fox-Scully
Fox-Scully's picture

A Moderate Recession--HA!  Probably a moderate depression!

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 00:18 | 2336860 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Shit. It's going to make the Great Depression a footnote in history. What we are going to witness will be epic.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 20:09 | 2336462 DougM
DougM's picture

Many losers lambast Shilling but his US Treasury recommendations in the mid 90s has far, far, far outperformed the precious metal heads in here.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 20:35 | 2336514 Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

Really? We bought Silver in 1999 for $4.50 and sold it at $47.00. So how far, far, far better did Treasuries do?

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 21:27 | 2336602 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

Many losers lambast Shilling but his US Treasury recommendations in the mid 90s has far, far, far outperformed the precious metal heads in here.


You would be wrong-nothing has beaten the metal heads--nothing-

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 20:11 | 2336467 Beard of Zeus
Beard of Zeus's picture


Gloom, doom, and paranoia.

Collapse? Not gonna happen.


Wed, 04/11/2012 - 20:40 | 2336518 B-rock
B-rock's picture

I've never actually heard anyone explain how it's not going to happen.... but many know how(ish) it will.  Keep dreaming Zeus... It's called normalcy bias.

Collapse has been happening for 30 years.  Did you not notice?

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 20:51 | 2336542 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

Hey B of Z what is your profession? 

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 04:40 | 2337035 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Nerve-gas tester.


Wed, 04/11/2012 - 20:18 | 2336480 Michelle
Michelle's picture

February increase was mostly due to the Tax Refund Effect. Happens every year.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 00:20 | 2336863 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Good point. How did the "expert" miss something so obvious?

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 20:40 | 2336483 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

Long treasuries? US in better shape than other countries? He may have been right before but not about this.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 20:22 | 2336487 dolph9
dolph9's picture

To the best of my knowledge this site is legitimate.  Please consider sending support in any way to this hero.

FUCK the murderous blacks and their enablers.

This country's going down the tubes and all we think about is appeasing these blacks?  Pathetic.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 23:23 | 2336781 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture



Everyone send George Zimmerman a few bucks! his RICH JUDGE DADDY (Jewish) doesnt want to waste a good oppurtunity to pick up some free money from sucker Goys!! LOL!!

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 23:35 | 2336801 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture



Imagine if Trayvon was a White Child?


None of this would even be a conversation.


And the Truth about Trayvon.. is! If Trayvon would have been taught to respect his elders.. if Trayvon would have been on restriction for being suspended .. if Trayvon would have been taught manners.. if Trayvon had not been dumped on his daddy’s girlfriend.. if Trayvon would not have been in possession of marijuana.. if Trayvon’s Parents would have cared about the child instead of ignoring his behavioral issues.. Trayvon would be here today is Trayvon’s Parents did their Job!


And I don’t like Zimmerman.. but he (as should every other human being on the planet) has the NATURAL RIGHT to Defend Himself! Period! And I don’t care how many media outlets shape the story to be more sensational!,0,414033.story



I don’t care how many Blissfully Ignorant Sheepeople can’t wait to feed off the negativity!





The Facts Remain! Trayvon (a 6 foot 2 inch 180 pound Child) battered Zimmerman, says the hospital and the Police and!! The neighbors all who gave eye witness before the media circus started! Or Zimmerman would have been Lynched!


Zimmerman Defend himself against a MUCH Bigger Child! Period!


And just because the Black Community, including President Obama who said.. “Trayvon looks just like my Son would look” doesn’t change the LAW in Florida! Where a Person can defend themselves! From un-wanted Attack!



And let’s not forget! If Trayvon was a White Child! This conversation would not be being had!

Everyone has the Right to Defend themselves from a Larger Attacker! And if Zimmerman was walking around or behind Trayvon.. once again does NOT give Trayvon the right to Bloody (or break) Zimmerman’s Nose! And then Bang Zimmerman’s head off of the Concrete hard enough to split Zimmerman’s Head Open!


Trayvon had no respect for his elders! No manners! And was walking around like a “Wanna Be Gangster” in someone else’s neighborhood! Instead of being “GROUNDED!” for being Suspended! Trayvon should NOT! have been out of the House, PERIOD! To begin with! But Trayvon’s Father Shipped him off to his Girlfriends house! Instead of taking care of his child!


Trayvon’s Mother and Father were NO WHERE AROUND!! When he was shot! NO WHERE!!


A Parents’ responsibility to their Child.. is to prepare their child.. for a successful and well adjusted transition into the world.

Trayvon’s Parents FAILED Trayvon.. Trayvon’s Parents did more to kill Trayvon than Zimmerman did.

So how about some charges against Trayvon’s Parents for failing at their LEGAL! Responsibilities?!!?

Instead of what the Corporate Owned Media Provides for!


Thu, 04/12/2012 - 01:36 | 2336929 lemonobrien
lemonobrien's picture

if i was zimmerman, i'd flee to cuba and ask for political asylum; he speaks spanish.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 02:55 | 2336973 Memphis10
Memphis10's picture

And this has anything to do with this head line how?

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 13:13 | 2338531's picture

Check your premises. The authors of the Stand Your Ground law have stated that Martin had a right to defend himself against Zimmerman and not the other way around.


Op-Ed: Why I Wrote 'Stand Your Ground' Law


BAXLEY: Well, simply because if you carefully read the statute, which most of the critics have not, and read the legislative analysis, there's nothing in this statute that authorizes you to pursue or confront other people. If anything, this law would have protected the victim in this case; it could have.

CONAN: It could have.


Baxley is a white Republican Representative. The bill's co-athor, former Senator Peaden (white Republican) and former Governor Bush (white Republican) who signed the bill into law have agreed that Zimmerman has no protection under the law.


Fri, 04/13/2012 - 12:53 | 2342070 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture



I agree!

Trayvon a 6 foot 2 inch 180 lbs Child.. who was suspended from school for drug possesion.. was walking around in 80 degree weather.. in not his nieghborhood! and then he hads no respect for his elders.. and beat on a man.. who then defended himself! and killed the lil wanna be gangsta!

Keep killing the lil wanna be gangsta's that look like the Presidents son and I bet that those lil Gangstas start respecting thier elders!

and since the Parents.. were not even in the same city??

niever mind.. all this is common sense..

an animal was put down becuase it acted rabid!

thats what happened.

it is a shame it was a Young Animal.. but an animal none the less!

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 20:24 | 2336494 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

Earth to bearish old guys - aint no sellers left!

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 21:09 | 2336569 luna_man
luna_man's picture



Earth to "TooBearish"-"sellers", just haven't found the need lately!...I sense captiulation, near.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 21:00 | 2336523 I should be working
I should be working's picture

God Shiller is such a blow hard.  I hope we get 70s style inflation just so I can watch his 30 year bonds take it up the ass.  The guy has traded on declining interest rates his whole career.  Just because they haven't gone up since 1980 doesn't mean they can't.

A downside surprise of 20% in earnings is not going to send the S&P 500 down 45%.  2008 was a downside surprise of about 85% and a huge liquidity crisis to boot.  Pretty much the worst possible bear market was 50% down.  Markets don't trade based on where your 10 year CAPE says they should old man.  They trade based on the magnitude of positive and negative surprises.  If his predition is accurate (big if) I would expect 20-25% downside, maybe S&P500 1000.  But you can always say stocks are going down big - Shiller said in 2009 stocks would go down another 50%.  He said in 2010 the S&P 500 wouldn't trade at 1400 until 2020.  He's always bearish, and usually wrong.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 03:16 | 2337008 Bear
Bear's picture

The market (ES) was close to 1000 just 112 trading days ago, so going to 1000, is just not that big a deal and it will happen soon


In 2008 we had a liquidity crisis and the FED rescued us with printed money ... today we have a credit problem (soon to be crisis) which no amount of printed money will fix. Without easing after June there will be nothing to support the market's free fall and guaranteed loss of Obama in November. Therefore, there will be QE3 ... increasing inflation starting in July but lied about until November. Drop the Market now, ramp in July - Nov, no one remembers April - June, Obama is reelected and TSHTF ... global chaos and by December 21, 2012 ... game over

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 20:48 | 2336534 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

You will get 70's style inflation except bond yields will stay where they are. Everytime Bernanke speaks he will look more and more like Leslie Nielson in Airplane.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 20:53 | 2336545 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Really insightful stuff here from Schilling.  But one gripe I have with his analysis:

In a democracy, neither capital nor labor keeps the upper hand indefinitely.

We don't live in a democracy; we live in corportocracy. 

I'm bullish on rich people getting richer, and laborers getting fucked in the ass. 

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 21:00 | 2336554 disabledvet
Wed, 04/11/2012 - 21:02 | 2336558 Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

Remember not to overestimate the signs, clues, et al you will get before This all goes to Hell in a final flurry of chaos -- there need not be a "black swan" event, either.

Predictions of the velocity of (just about anything now) are either self-serving or store-variety hot air.

Don't mind me, though... I just enjoy stating the simple and obvious.
Greater minds will have us on the ground in no time.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 21:05 | 2336561 Dubya3
Dubya3's picture

Guy has been calling for deflation since the beginning of time.   What else is new.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 21:18 | 2336590 Cursive
Cursive's picture


We have deflation.  Have you seen home prices lately?  Have you seen the spot price of natural gas?  Have you looked at state and local budgets?  Yes, food prices are going up and I don't like it; this is mostly attributable to the free money speculation in raw materials that is a result of easy money policies.  Other than that, money velocity has been declining.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 21:50 | 2336640 riphowardkatz
riphowardkatz's picture

deflation that is a good one. gas at all time highs(in the face of falling demand), gold at all time highs, more money then has ever existed before trickling out into the economy, food going through the roof, every producers is reducing margins because their input costs are going through the roof. Medical costs skyrocketing, Education skyrocketing. Rents going up. Silver a 3 year double.

Housing prices were a bubble that popped. Malinvestment being liquidated is NOT deflation. It is falling prices CAUSED by liquidation.

Money velocity is slowing Did you see the report on how much money the US government is spending? Not very slow.

Prices going down is not deflation and natural gas is a perfect example of why your poor use of defining deflation as lower prices just doesnt work. Productivity and discovery can cause declining prices that is not deflation. My goodness.

Deflation is a fall in prices caused by less money. INflation is a rise in prices caused by more money. There is either less money or more money. The fact is there is 2x the dollars in existance with opportunity for leverage at 8x that. The concepts of inflation and deflation are mutually exclusive. You cannot have both at the same time. 


Thu, 04/12/2012 - 00:47 | 2336891 bahaar
bahaar's picture

What we are having is asset price deflation and curency devaluation.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:09 | 2337377 riphowardkatz
riphowardkatz's picture

You mean assets like gold and silver and zynga and groupon and facebook and farm land and real estate in NYC and real estate in DC ?


Wed, 04/11/2012 - 23:53 | 2336826 El
El's picture

Home prices where I am looking to buy haven't fallen and there aren't that many houses available there. Also, just tonight I stocked up on some medical supplies (because frankly, I haven't bought a bandaid in 15 years and it occurs to me that maybe I should have a few things on hand just in case). I used a list from a YouTube video done by a nurse who suggested a $50 kit of basic supplies. She made that video two years ago. Those same supplies cost me close to $150, so please... don't try to tell me we have deflation or that we don't have inflation. Please...just don't.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 21:09 | 2336571 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

What is the short volume looking like these days?  Short contract and puts for March etc.?

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 00:27 | 2336872 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Still complacent, though it has moved a bit recently. but basically, the majority of investors still believe the market will not have a serious correction, much less a crash. I'm of the crash variety.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 21:09 | 2336572 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

the bernank himself will step into the pits before the SnP hits 800 again.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 02:33 | 2336940 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

where you been?


did you see clonie?  she sez things like:  Shilling is one of the smartest guys out there and he gets it.

i feel like i should apologize for her being so styooopid;  tyler's been saying this stuff for almost a year!

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 21:10 | 2336576 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture



Just a little reminder from Q1 of this year.

Your Wages Will Be Cut In Half!

Too become globally competitive, wages need to be rolled back to the 50's. The crisis will be sold as a National Security Protocol in Securing Supply Chain Security. Each American must make this sacrifice to save our country from terrorist <Cough.. Banking Cartel/Central Planners terrorist cell structure within the United States >.

Bookmark my post.. As things become more heated, Governments will pass more laws to absorb the brace of Debt Saturation. The string of lies gets frayed away each day.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 21:15 | 2336581 The Proletariat
The Proletariat's picture

Cue in WWIII....all the "great" economists agree this will fix the economy....

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 21:56 | 2336660 jomama
jomama's picture

so who hasn't come out and said it's all going to shit in a handbasket? 

any day now, right?

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 22:58 | 2336744 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Yea, assume Ben isn't willing to literally gamble away the republic.  My feeling is that he has no problem and is so far into this shit that he'll literally destroy the currency.

You're premise is that, at some point, law and reason will play into this and allow the market to correct.  As long as the wizard behind the current has FULL FUCKING AUTHORITY to simply jam electrons into the market, it won't happen.


Wed, 04/11/2012 - 22:04 | 2336675 OrestesPenthilu...
OrestesPenthilusQuintard's picture

S and P will drop like the density of syrup and glycerol.....

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 22:27 | 2336706 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Someday, that boy will be able to serve the perfect Black and Tan.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 22:15 | 2336693 MaxFrost
MaxFrost's picture

Yup, those pictures prove it - he was clearly Black.


Wed, 04/11/2012 - 22:25 | 2336705 jackes123
jackes123's picture


He's wong; keep buy dip in mind please.

ZH pretty much missed the ENTIRE equity bull rally.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 22:31 | 2336712 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture



My gold..

My TSY's..

ALL MY QE bets?

v you and your stock picks??

all day every day..

I will bet you a MILLION DOLLARS! in Gold!

You choose the Accounting Firm.. (big 4, I would rather KPMG)

whoever made more money wins.. we close offshore!


Thu, 04/12/2012 - 00:22 | 2336865 jackes123
jackes123's picture

yes, the game is on.


how will you like to do it?

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 01:23 | 2336923 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture



ZH pretty much missed the ENTIRE equity bull rally.

What bull rally?  S&P is 780 priced in 2007 dollars, Dow 7,800.

Wow, big rally.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 22:39 | 2336708 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture



I said the same 800 last summer.. no one wrote a story on me saying it?

then it was 600..

then it was 500.. or less!


no worries its coming!!

Jobless Recovery!

our entire tax base has moved off shore!

50,000 Manufacturing Jobs a month to China!! alone!! for the last 11 years! OVER A DECADE!! of 50,000 Manufacturing Jobs a MONTH! going to China! there is the $15 Trillion in Tax Base! it was shiped off shore for Lobby Dollars! and the Workig Class Subsidized it all! Tax Breaks! Tax Credits! and Subsidies!!

America has been killed off!

The Constitution is DEAD!!

and the Baby Bommers just want to enjoy the spoils of thier participation in the LIE!

if you havent seen this.. take the time to watch it.. and take notes.. for the Supreme Court Cases Mentioned!

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 08:52 | 2337311 Pope Clement
Pope Clement's picture

@JW n FL - Thanks brother for constant stream of informative posts - you are one of ZH's best....

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 22:32 | 2336713 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Let's just look at this logically - name suggests that this is how I do it.

Value comes from innovation and effort put into an endeavour.

Do banks innovate or put endeavour into anything? - NO -  they just prey one those who do.

The world is being run (desroyed by) useless f*%ks who wouldn't know innovation or hard work if it bit 'em on the arse.


Wed, 04/11/2012 - 23:51 | 2336776 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture



innovation is Patents.. and if you want to protect your Idea.. YOU WILL HAVE $2 Million (ish) dollars to protect the idea.. or you will not have protection.. and even if you file for protection.. with the law changes in China.. you are NOT Protected there.. and this does NOT! cover litigation!

You can NOT Protect and Idea in America.. and if it is Energy Related.. it has to go thru a Government approval process.. at which point the Government can say.. it is in the Interests of the Country that YOUR IDEA REAMIN UNDER THE GOVERNMENTS CARE!

add to that.. the Government Preys on the un-educated idiot sheepeople.. just like Wall Street! and 2 years ago offered that any ideas that were provided to the patent office would have protection.. LOL!!


America is a LIE!

The Constitution is a LIE!!

I would say wake up..

but 90% of the people are unable to fully grasp the entirety of the LIE! And the other 9% either don’t care or are making so much money that it is in their interests to perpetuate the LIE!


Procedural Law in the Lower Courts over riding the Supreme Court.. is NOTHING NEW!


This shit has been going on for decades..


Eat the Top 400!!

 we should be thinking of the Many instead of the few.. it is more sustainable!

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 07:10 | 2337107 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

What do you mean banks don't innovate. They make CDO's , MBS, derivatives, and all those other fine financial products that help move our country backwards towards the 17th century.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 22:56 | 2336737 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Well, the FED is right back in the futures slamming them higher.

So, who the fuck knows?  It's so alien to what is actually supposed to be that they aren't even really represent equity anymore.  It's just a fucking lotto ticket.

When you are in today's sickening level of intevention, why even debate shit like this?  If Ben wants to open up the SPX up 50 handles tomorrow at 9:30 then he can fucking do it.  Or 100, or whatever the fuck he wants.

That's the truth.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 23:07 | 2336757 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

You hit the nail on the head. Ben is not going to let this thing fall below 12,000. He has been stairs stepping this thing up and he's not about to let it fall so people can see the emperor has no clothes. If people try to fight this tape they will get killed.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 22:56 | 2336739 Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

Bottom line: If consumers don't have money they can't spend it.  Right now many people who've been out of work for a very long time and have tried to maintain their lifestyles are running out of resources.  That coupled with ridiculously high gas prices are driving nails in the coffins of the consumer.  Stick a fork in 'em, they're done.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 23:09 | 2336759 reader2010
reader2010's picture

Holy shit! Someone has to do PR job for Bernanke's next QE round.

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 23:11 | 2336761 ekm
ekm's picture

Rule of Thumb:

Anything that is created out of nothing, can go back to nothing.


Step 1: I go to the bank for a loan. Bank loans to me $10,000. How? They just enter a number in a computer, they did not use anybody's else money, they just made it up. Hence, $10,000 created out of nothing. It's called Credit Money

Step 2: I waste my money with hookers, booze and cocaine (somebody here my deem this as great spending, no challenges on this one). I can't pay the loan, I go bankrupt. Credit money goes back to nothing, it's vanished.

Credit Money is about 92% of all money supply. Base Money (the one that the Fed prints) is about 8% of the money supply. The Fed is trying to replace the Credit Money that is literally vanishing = Food and Gasoline inflation

So, part of the creation comes from destruction demand. Lehman goes shit = Margins are called = Demand for dollars.

But, only and only and only and only after destruction.

Sequence: Margin Lending - Collapse of holdings - Margin call - Fire sale of holding to meet the call = Demand for dollars.

That's what Shilling is talking about.

Once one understands any conceptual machine, energy in, energy spent, energy exhausted, energy left over, it's easier to understand the system step by step.


Thu, 04/12/2012 - 01:19 | 2336922 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture



Back to step 2: that would fall under base money, yes?  The cash requirment and all.


Fitting for Base Behavior..

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:17 | 2337405 ekm
ekm's picture

When paid by Credit Card is Credit Money = Credit Hookers

When paid by Cash is Base Money = Base Hookers

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 23:11 | 2336763 SheepleLOVEched...
SheepleLOVEcheddarbaybiscuits's picture

people still think the stock market is going down? low volume selloff on a holiday?LOL classic contemplating getting levered long here

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 23:16 | 2336772 alexwest
alexwest's picture

not a single word "FEDERAL BUIDGET DEFICIT "



Wed, 04/11/2012 - 23:48 | 2336816 Hallpass2012
Hallpass2012's picture

he is right fundamentally, unfortunately the markets are not running on fundamentals they are running on the Fed's intervention fuel, look to see a rally tmro morning - - in the end the fed is going to print print print & if they stop, Bernanke put with higher striking price... a deflation or credit collapse would be socially destabalizing so they are going to put it off as long as possible... but eventually everything is going to hell in a handbasket & you want real assets

Wed, 04/11/2012 - 23:55 | 2336830 Muppet
Muppet's picture

Government has one huge revenue source not being discussed...  Lotteries.  "Jackpots" pay only about half of the tickets sold with the rest going to Government... and then the jackpot is taxed at the federal and state level. 

Who truly makes out?   Only the Government.  

Consider just one of the recent lotteries; the recent $656M jackpot.    At least $656 was retained by the organizers...  The Federal income tax will be near $250M and state tax could be another $65M.   Nearly $1B going to Government.  Not a trivial windfall; and thats just one lottery of hundreds.    Its huge Government revenue, collected quietly, from citizens ignorant to see their exploitation.

The President or Congress must see this huge revenue source.  Lets get it out in the open.   Lotteries (and of course, tax on casinos) could just be a primary solution to our nations debt.    What a country.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 00:06 | 2336843 bshirley1968
bshirley1968's picture

In a lottery the gov wins EVERYTIME!

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 00:02 | 2336838 aerial view
aerial view's picture

Any drop in the market is a pre-planned manipulated event to allow the D.C. connected wealthy to buy at a discount and offset their losses on real estate and other businesses as well as dollar devaluation. The young sheeple are only able to live paycheck to paycheck while servicing 20 year student loans and distracting themselves with mindless entertainment and the latest i-garbage while living with the parents or renting a room in someone's house. All of these actions have debt-enslaved workers lowering their expectations and dreams of a better future and becoming thankful to their masters for allowing them the privilege to work 50+ hours per week and still convince themselves that they are a success. Of course, there is no time for critical thinking or action

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 00:04 | 2336839 bshirley1968
bshirley1968's picture

All this continual flap about QE is driving me insane!  The money has less and less influence everytime they print it.  Money printing has NEVER solved THIS problem in all the history of mankind and it will NOT solve it this time.  None of the money is getting to the real economy.  It goes to the banks who just hoard it or buy gov bonds.  It goes to the fat cats who keep this ponzi going but it never gets to the real economy of manufacturing, production, service, goods, etc. or to real people who produce something.  The QE perpetuates the farce but does not create any real economy.  QE also increases the debt while at the same time diminishing the engine of economy needed to repay the debt.  QE is burning the candle at both ends and when the middle is reached it will be game over.  Making stocks go higher will only mean they have further to fall when the party ends.  AND IT WILL END!  And the end is coming sooner than many believe.

The human factor is the great unknown.  Just when you think you have them figured out and under control, they come unhinged and mess up your best laid plans.  The whole world is on edge and it won't take much to light this rocket. Can you say "Trayvon"?  When you consider Japan's unbelievable mess, Europe's abyss of debt, the tranquil center of the world we call the Middle East, the not to be trusted communist Chinese, the wacko's in N Korea, that little commodity we call oil, the Nazi republicans, and the communist, kenyan, Idi Amin wannabe in the White House, one doesn't have to look far for some sparks that could fire this up at any moment.  All it would take is one slip up by the right person in any one of those situations, and we could have total melt down. 

If you believe the almighty Fed can navigate that mine field for an extended period of time and maintain control of the sheeple, then by all means margin up and buy with both fist.  I personally will choose not to be so careless with my faith.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 02:46 | 2336943 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

would you like me to send you a copy of my pamphlet? self-medicationForPirates

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 00:57 | 2336906 zonetraders
zonetraders's picture


strong aussie numbers. How do you reconcile such bearishness with uber bullish numbers

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 03:15 | 2337007 GlenD
GlenD's picture

Google roy morgan research unemployment ... real unemployment in australia is closer to 10% than the 5% they want us to swallow. But when australian housing decline starts accelerating - how will fed/states continue to employ 15%+ of the entire workforce in their shelterered workshops (public service) without revenue from housing sales etc. If you look wilkipedia list of countries by external debt, australia owe's more per capata than US. Although that by itself may not be bad when compared to gdp, one has recogonize that gdp includes spending from debt (NBN, Home Insulation etc etc). Google multi year graphs for australia gdp then do the same for greece.
Clearly all is not as good as they want you to believe.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 02:01 | 2336948 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture



It's taking massive intervention to keep the financial system in balance these days.

The biggest destablizer is government borrowing.  Fed has to massively intervene by holding interest rates near zero and running the presses to buy govt debt, which further debases the dollar, causing prices to rise, causing the economy to sink further in depression.

To distract people from the economic depression, Fed intervenes again, printing more money and pumping stocks.

There's no free lunch.  All this currency printing to keep buying govt debt and keep pumping stocks is debasing the dollar rapidly now, and bringing us closer to currency collapse.

Nobody in America knows when it'll happen, because it'll happen outside America, other nations deciding enough is enough and dumping the dollar.

That's when the financial system collapses.  Suddenly, without warning.

So yes, all this intervention and rising stocks and such will work till it doesn't.  And "doesn't" will be sudden, without warning.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 02:17 | 2336958 upb
upb's picture

s&p 800???  who cares!!! just load up on FSLR!!  



Thu, 04/12/2012 - 02:44 | 2336968 Alexmai
Alexmai's picture
THE FINAL CRASH – THE END OF U.S. DOMINANCE IN 2013 – Preface and Introduction by Farid A. Khavari, Phd


A Warning to All Americans:




This booklet depicts a scenario that is already unfolding, leading to the end of the United States of America’s position of world leadership. The end could come as early as 2013.


The U.S. economy would sink deeper into depression, with recovery all but impossible. The dollar would no longer be the world’s reserve currency. Worst of  all would be the sudden widespread dominance of radical Islam, with the mullahs of the Islamic Republic of Iran dictating to the world and controlling the new reserve currency: the Iranian rial.



THE FINAL CRASH – THE END OF U.S. DOMINANCE IN 2013 – Part One – Is War with Iran in 2012 inevitable?

THE FINAL CRASH – THE END OF U.S. DOMINANCE IN 2013 – Part Two – The Economic Crash of 2013

THE FINAL CRASH – THE END OF U.S. DOMINANCE IN 2013 – Part Three – Substitution of Crude Oil – The Overlooked Links

THE FINAL CRASH – THE END OF U.S. DOMINANCE IN 2013 – Decentralized Solar and Wind Energy Systems: The Ultimate Solution


Thu, 04/12/2012 - 03:41 | 2337022 GlenD
GlenD's picture

Don't worry yourself about muslums ruling the world financial system and removing your slavery from usury because Israel with its 150+ nukes (sure to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty within next 10000 years) will start ww3 to ensure your slavery to usury ramains intact.
And yeah, iran wants rule the world because they clearly an aggressive race, their last aggression (not defensive) was againts rome, in which they were beaten by 20 gladiators.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 04:10 | 2337026 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

So let's pursue another scenario. What would happen if Spain disintegrated and some Regions declared themselves independent of central government and repudiated Debt and issued their own currency. It is not inconceivable that Spain could become a model for certain US states to secede and declare themselves no longer subject to the Federal Government. What would be the effect ?

Britain already has this debate with respect to Scotland which already issues its own bank notes and talks of having North Sea Oil as its national resource. Why don't people consider what happens to highly indebted states if regions break away. It was after all Yeltsin who pulled the RSFSR out of the USSR collapsing the structure and following the "Washington Consensus" collapsed GDP by 50% with the help of Jeffrey Sachs......

That was a resource-based economy the same one that has Putin riding high but the US is a resource consumer piling up liabilities in a rubber currency which probably won't bounce back. Time to explore national breakup scenarios

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 04:29 | 2337034 dogfish
dogfish's picture

does the slowed consumer spending = tax returns already spent.this happens every year it seems.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!