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Shocker: JPM Sees Gold At $2,500 By Year End
We though we had seen it all... Then JPM's Colin Fenton came out with a prediction of gold hitting $2500 by year end. That's right: JP Morgan... $2500...."Gold and sugar have potential to run a lot higher. It has been clear for weeks that the prompt CMX gold price has been building in a rising probability of a reflaring of financial crisis, gaining by 9.7% since June 30 as the MSCI World Equity index dropped by 10.1%. The correlation in daily price changes between these two assets has dropped to –0.09 from +0.29 over the prior year. Gold’s correlation against TIPS has doubled to 0.35 from 0.18. Against Italian and Spanish 5-year sovereign CDS prices, the gold correlation has moved to 0.27 and 0.32, from 0.07 and 0.04, respectively. Before the downgrade, our view was that cash gold could average $1800 per oz by year end. This view will likely now prove to be too conservative: spot gold could drive to $2500 per oz or higher, albeit on very high volatility." Funny, when discussing yesterday's Goldman upgrade of gold we said: "Next up: everyone else." Little did we know... Also, it is unclear if Blythe precleared this client note. But at this point it probably does not matter.
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A lot of the traders out there are working for people who are slowly acquiring gold and silver. Any significant drop will elicit a frenzy of buying. Central banks will continue to cheat the conspiracy and buy on the sly. There won't be any significant drops both in price and duration. You may get one or the other, but not both.
I'm not sure why this is a shocker.
According to the nasdaq insider holding summary for GLD, JPM has 11, 652, 379 shares of GLD and is the third largest institutional holder. It's also one of their largest holdings (#11th largest)
JPM does not have a net short on gold. Anyone thinking this back from the 'JPM EXPLODES AT GOLD AND SILVER HIGHS!!!1' is wearing a tin hat. This report only further prooves this point.
BTW, if ZH posted the full report and not just the select bit above, the masses here would see that JPM recommended a long on gold futures all the way back in February. For anyone else with institutional access, the report is called "Commodity Phase Shift. What does the US debt downgrade mean for commodities?"
They are also the 3rd largest holder of SLV
Are you trying to say that the Crash JP Morgue, Buy Silver was TOTAL BULLSHIT?
http://investors.morningstar.com/ownership/shareholders-major.html?t=SLV
ask yourself who the loudest people around here pumping that meme were and you'll have your answer
Hmmm, I wonder if you are talking about someone else, or if your hate filled delusions have warped your mind to the extent that you have had a total break from reality.
Here's a hint: I ALWAYS said that JPM would not "break". They will be bailed out. They might default as a bullion bank, and even close up shop in that arena at some point, but JPM won't cease to exist until they are no longer politically favored.
Or are you referring to someone else that you have an intifada against?
Zero Power,
net or no, their activities have a disproportionate effect on the market...don't they? I'm asking in earnest. but, truly, they as an institution have no affect on my investment in silver; insofar as i look past them and see a lot of amazing fundamental positives.
and, i appreciate you beefin up your position a lil this time. i can see you now, laboring deliberately over each and every syllable, until at last, four hours later, we've got us a good paragraph.
Any large fin'l institution will have a large enough footprint on financial markets - doesnt mean theyre always right: LTCM, AIG, BAC, etc. Ironically, all those got bailed out.
i suppose i want to emphasize the word "disproportionate", and specifically underscore its reference to the silver market -- as it (JPM) seems to have been intrinsic to it (COMEX) for a good span. this isn't conspiracy, it's accepted status accorded to the king of the silver market as i understand it.
okay, if that is so, and if they have tangled their share price into a continually recycled short position (which is a semantic debate) viz. the price of silver, doesn't that qualify their influence as something along the lines of monsterous; i thought i was being generous with disproportionate.
all my impishness aside, i do appreciate your time
Who cares if it's a conspiracy? That's a straw man.
It's obvious that any market maker needs to use public announcements to disguise what they are really doing until after the fact.
How the fuck else are they going to keep the plebes from front running?
Thats the thing - because people still have to prove or disprove whether or not its a conspiracy, i dont comment on silver most of the time as people's gets wayyyy too boiled for a thing of relatively low importance. You can imagine how people on here and other silver-loving places lost money from leveraging up on silver on its last run up into ~$50. Where theres that much emotion, theres an equal and opposite (lack of) rationality. And so, personally im a fan of gold and know by now most big desks have at least a small position in it. Its when the masses catch up that it will truly begin its ascent. But i cant say the same for silver, and even if it gets back to its $50 i very much doubt it will be there to stay.
and that's just my thing, i tend to seek out the best opinions most opposed to my own on any given subject -- and while you're nowhere near the anthesis of my view on this issue, i do suspect you know what you're talking about, and you're sufficently different to make it worth my while.
this 50 number seems arbitrary (i know about nominals...I'm not a total moron, but close), in fact, i think all current PM barometers need retooling (in light of bretton and the dollar's post WWII false context...that's my brief analysis -- i could go on, but, again, i suspect you follow). i do however worry a bit.
i worry because i'm just beginning to metabolize the heirarchy of this world of finance; and though i hear nothing but carping about the omnipotence of bankers, i'm starting to view you traders as the kings -- in an existential sort of way. sure, there is that 'mastery of debt' thing, but i actually am starting to believe it's subordinate to the soverignty of NOW. but what gives me most hope is that you boys, if there is some single thing that weds you together, have your fingers on the pulse -- they must understand that things outside their control are to be yeilded to, not 'believed' in, or it seems they go belly up. yes, crybabys and dreamers get crushed; but even a trader's got to step ALL the way back from his desk now and again, rub his eyes, and see what the people are saying before they're all shouting it...sometimes emotion drives reality -- most especially when the fundamental tenants of reality are most at question...which is ferbile for fear, which is an emotion.
but i earnestly do want to hear about the consensus in your craft, and i'd like to know why 50 is so verboten...and i'll lay off the canadian jokes for at least one more post.
They planning to run it up and sell it off in hopes of plugging some holes in their balance shee/it?
i.e. "Global Financial Crisis".
But would that not be replicating the "Chinese Problem" of dumping treasuries? Would it not have to be slow and covert?
Maybe this bull run has been just that, slow and covert, walking it up over the last 10 years or so. The blow off starts now because the game of chicken is on like donkey kong and no one is punking out. Grab it on your way out the door, damn the torpedoes, you have made a whole lot already, the rest is GRAAVVY.
This is speculation, no more.
The only way they are saying this is if they have a position in it, guess they finally took up JP's advice on gold, when the house of morgue is talking up GOLD then SJGR, reality has set in!
J.P. Morgan: "Gold is Money. Everything Else is Credit."
Sp, in other words, Timmah's non-departure is priced in.
He's got more lootin' and pillagin' to manage.
going long gold to cover their silver shorts? http://www.silverrevolucion.com/
Time to sell gold and wait for a big correction before getting back in. Long-term thesis is still strong, but short-term spike driven by fear. What other news is going to drive it much higher than it is today? Over time, gold will go higher as it become clearer that there will be a total loss of confidence in the dollar. But that thesis will be proven out over time (1 -2 years), not over the next week or two.
What other news will drive it higher? How about people closing bank accounts and running on ATMs? Or several big funds like UTx buying a billion dollars worth? Or the price going up $100 instead of $60?
By selling you risk getting the timing wrong. Better to hang on and miss out on a short term profit. Fear may be a driver but it is also misunderstood. Has it occured to you that fear is often driven by commonsense and intuition? If you believe your own thesis about the longer term capitulation fo the dollar then the spike is simply an intuitive sign of things to come.
Buch
I am not trading gold, but if you are a trade, then go ahead and trade.
However, I would caution you that the price action has changed a bit. The trend took on a steeper slope in July, and both the depth and the duration of the corrections seem to have lessened. Your timing could leave you sitting out major parts of the trend. It depends on your skill as a trader. I wouldn't place too much confidence in those charts. The game is changing fast
Agreed on all points. I should have clarified--I would never advocate getting out of gold entirely. I'm simply taking profits in the paper stuff. It is a very volatile investment due exactly to the wide misunderstanding of its value as money. I think that volatility can be traded in this environment. We'll see. My largest position next to gold is TBT.
meh, this is all so qe2.
what was that, billy? "cry havoc and let slip the dawgs of war!"
don't mind if i do.
What is a Blyth's opinion about price of silver when gold is going to skyrocked? Oh, I forget courtesy of naked shorts selling still below 50
If you see 2500 before EOY you will see riots in the US soon after.
why? nobody cares about the gold price anymore than they care about Obama's 57 States
i'm confused.
are you asking, 'who cares about the price of gold in obama's 57 states of china'? well, if that is what you're asking, then i'll have to answer you -- bernake and geithner to name just two.
That is exactly why you will see 2500 come and pass in the rear view mirror. They will destroy the currency, but 2500 gold will not affect an economy. It is not needed by industry, and that is why we are not going on an oil standard, or a copper standard. They can make the gold in their vaults worth as much as they need to and still restart the fianancial system. You will see $2500, and yes, you will see riots.
Well may be it's a signal that a short term correction is imminent in gold before ofcourse it launches itself higher
Who was that old dude who recommended that everyone should exchange their gold for physical donuts?
Homer Simpson
Kind of funny that if you bought PHYSICAL gold last week, all of your premium was recouped between Friday and today.
jpm bullish on gold?
who is brave enough and goes short? >.<
Gold might make it that high--for the central banks.
But it will be outlawed for the average guy on the street.
You're talking shit, Tyler.
You know they'll kill it before then.
You're better off listening to the Ben Bernanke song:
http://www.geraldcelente.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=music&action=display&thread=320
Forget all the bullshit.
Tune in, turn on, and drop out.
Tyler is not talking shit and gold will not be outlawed for the man on the street because that is where the man on the street is......on the street without a job home, future, or a say about how bankers, politicians and the rest of them shoud be held responsible. When things get ugly, I think the collection of gold from citizens will be the last thing on their mind. Saving their butts will.
From 1970 to 1980 gold went from. 35 to 850 or 2400%
Why do so many feel that the 2001 low of 256 cant do the same?
Normally, I would agree. But inasmuch as they were not destroying the currency as fast, and were not bankrupt in 1980, I'd say your prediction is a bit low.
they must have now covered enough shorts.....
Pile into gold while you still can.
Gold is more expensive than platinum now, wow.
silver balllllllllllls
silver balllllllllllls
they've got silver by the balllls and it's a pitteeeeeeee...
Blythe has a blog site on blogspot, check it out and leave her a [nasty] comment
There goes gold again.
1718
yes, people should scroll down kitco and look at the price action in other currencies. Gold is actually weaker today in the USD than most other issues, exceptions being CHF and JPY. It is mass murdering in BRL, now above 2700...clear breakout.
CAD about to come back below parity and AUD looking not far away from it on current trends.
F off bad walmart guy...
I bought 20 oz on July 27(options exp). I top ticked the CAD
Off topic folks sorry.
Anyone out there have a take on how a significant crash might affect Petrus cases. Like a 2005 Petrus bordeaux or similar. What is going to happen to wines of this calibre? I'd like some for the wife and would gladly trade out some ag.
Thanks,
KIPPY
This is a good topic to be off with; when times are really crazy a good wine is comfort food.
The significant effect may come in availability; if you have been in metals for a long time locking in some profits for something you really enjoy might not be a horrible decision. I like Biale's Black Chicken...thus my screen name.
The prices are probably headed higher as well, because unlike USD's you cant just print up a hundred cases, and since NOTHING in Washington has been, or will be fixed, inflation seems to be the larger risk to me.
i'm swimmin in the shit...send silver and wife now!
.999 will do just fine
gold : platinum :: 1 : 1
sorry, SamSUN beat me too it..
The banks are running toward their fallback position - Gold money is needed to defend debt currency.
The true teabaggers such as K.Denninger have been side lined - the banks are going to hit the red button to defend their wealth.
yep...
gold backed SDR here we come!
oil gonna cost 500 dollars per barrel!
bye bye whats left of the us economy!
the kkk empire collapses! the banksters squeezed you dry!
lmfao
Silver...in Comex lockdown or price in check by China to allow orderly depletion of physical stocks? I believe the latter.
So true southern brother. Hold on to your Hat and your physical. Mexico will monetize silver soon. I heard it from the richest man in the world.
I think you are confusing Hugo Salinas Price with Carlos Slim but that's okay because Mexico may be the first to monetize silver and Slim has purchased silver mines recently.
MARKETWATCH HEADLINE THIS MORNING.
"GOLD MARKETS IN DISARRAY"
Seriously they posted that shit in a bulletin point. And as usualy next to no positive coverage on Gold on their site. Just the usual propaganda crap over S&P's rating cut of the US. They're using mockery on their front page to demean S&P's actions. If in doubt, just demean and dismiss your opponent, when you obviously don't have a logical retort against them.
with red, beady eyes, i watched my hot little blythe stacking delivery after delivery after delivery all during june
Do The Math, with me here: 2500-1700 = 800; 800/1700 = 47% upskie in 5 months
so, a federally-regulated bullion bankster comes out and says this and is still walking around free?
what a country!
so what they are really saying is..
that the FED and JP Morgan are working together to create a Bubble so that they can create a Panic sale at a later date and force the price back down beyond where it naturally should be.. to obviously re-enforce the position of the dollar in the market place (Globally).
It is never what are they giving you.. it is what are they taking away.
the deception is why people aren't looking @ the other hand right now, the one with the silver in it. not here on zH; in general, right now.
This is not good news for gold (physical) holders. Its means the GS will try to gun the paper and if it gets even close to 90% a year they will kill it. This causes volitility in gold, the MAIN reaon large money holds it. Gold is ment to be stable.
This is vary bad news. Slow steady and constant is what you want in an investment and bull market.
If volitility hits gold hard enough the larger players will question why they are taking such risk.
Even 1800 would be moving to fast for gold this year. If it hits 2000 much less 2500 i would have to re-think the investment and so should you.
Try plotting 10 year gold logrythmic chart. A very good fit to a straight line which on a eyeball basis, last December, indicated year end 2011 of 1850 ish. A pop above the ten year trend is not unlikely given the tectonic shifts taking place.
Gold is moving to fast now, if this continues till 2500 you may have a 30% correction on your hands. If not more.
Gold is not silver it is ment to lag.
If gold hits 2000 by years end i will have to seriously look at the full market and see if there is a better investment for the next year.
2000$ gold is to fast given my timeline and reason why i invested in gold in 2008. For you it may be fine if your willng to take the risk. Im not so sure i am yet.
Ill have to wait and see if and what other options are available at that time. Best of luck out there.
Thanks for providing the doubt that keeps the bull market rolling. Probably for 20 more years.
Obama to speak soon, should get another 10 dollar pop in gold and a drop of 10 more in spoos. He just needs to shut up.
sorry, OT, but can anyone put up some links that are still functioning regarding the market? NYSE and NASDAQ are not displaying anything on existing links.
Whose got the tickers?
http://www.sgxniftydowfutureslive.com/index_files/DOWFUTURES.htm
much appreciated.
Just passing it on! Here's another: http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
Blanche only cares about paper silver, that's the real stuff for her.
'physical' is something you dig out of the ground -far too grubby and ..err.. nothing to do with the -true price-. Don't forget that.
we few, we happy few, we band of gold and silver holders.
Once it hits $1800 I am going to going to short the shit out of it. Can someone please recommend the best method?
ZH has become an agent of chaos almost laser focused on pumping gold and trashing Wall Street. This is a sad place that was once a great place.
So you ask for advice, then trash everyone here including those who write the articles. Who's the sad one again?
look!, a Concern Troll.
Gold at $2500 means the USD devaluing 50% from today.
not necessarily, there are other components to the price.
Well, buy gold today for $1700 or $2500 in december... given that JPM is right
my point was misconstrued, i mearly meant other factors could push gold up besided a direct correlation to the the USD value.
You want to short it? Open a commodities account and sell the futures. Make sure you save enough for a gun and one bullet: you might need it.
Thanks Bastiat. My fortune rests in prime unleveraged real estate with heavy lines of credit arms and ready to pounce on the right opportunity. I feel that should be a good one.
Thanks Bastiat. My fortune rests in prime unleveraged real estate with heavy lines of credit arms and ready to pounce on the right opportunity. I feel that should be a good one.
Seriously, man. I traded the CME PMs for a few years (not professionally). I gave up last year because my upward bias was too big a handicap to good trading. Besides when I could get 75% just holding physical silver why take the risk? Anyway you might consider options to limit your exposure. Stops get run all the time--though gold is much less volatile than silver.
is there a gold levereged ETF akin to AGQ for silver?
Is it that hard for you to use the internet?
DGP
So when's the comex going to raise margins on gold?
Good ole Spawning Snailes!
F&*K,
I'm Rich!!!
The party is at my place!
We are a band of brothers.
Notice how the trolls have moved on. But, let us not forget, gold is very volatile and at some point our will for sure, will be tested again.
Let us not forget...FIVE DOLLARS!
Blythe on the phone with Sinclair seeking plow-girl position on Jim's farm
Jim, I just want to milk the sheep!
She wants to sleep with the pigs...she's used to being around them, makes her feel homey.
THE SHOCKER!!!
Urban Dictionary:
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=shocker
"Two in the Bush, one in the Cheney"
Now THAT'S funny!! I don't care who ya are.
Well, people must store thier wealth somewhere, right? Bonds are now a worse choice then many stocks imho.
off topic, but as I type Goldman is down 6.66% today
funny how things work
I guess JPM won’t be hiring this analyst anytime soon.
“Gold May Fall to $1,442 by Year End”
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/72838186/
Ironic isn't it; if you survey ten analysts about anything, the only thing you can be certain of is that at least nine of them will be proven wrong in the markets within a week.
Oh yeah, I'd hire him on his years of accumulated wisdom alone!
I'm going to youtube and smoke a bowl.
Enough is enough.
It's just money.
DJIA 10975 -467
the R2K is abt 673
maybe it'll hit 666 and the bottom will be in!
the DAX is down 8%
Gold : Platinum 1:1
Go LONG PLATINUM any day now?
In Weimar Germany Gold outperformed Silver by a factor of more than 10.
1919 GOLD 170, SILVER 12
Nov 1923 GIOLD 87,000,000,000,000, SILVER 543,750,000,000
Starting ratio = 14.1666
End Ratio = 160
That is not indicative of the current fundamentals though as silver is used far far more today than then and there is much less silver above ground now.
We though bitchez
Colin Fenton is now an authority on gold? You've got to be kidding me. Looks like JPMorgan didn't bother doing any due diligence when they hired him last year. Should have asked Stan Druckenmiller why he fired him from Duquesne Capital!
I want to see Blythe get up there and say it with a quivering lip. Say it, bitchez!
trav7777
you are a smart guy. But as to silver, you protest too much.
A Conspiracy Theory on Why Banksters Want You to Buy Gold Now
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2011/08/conspiracy-theory-on-why-ba...
A Conspiracy Theory on Why Banksters Want You to Buy Gold Now
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2011/08/conspiracy-theory-on-why-ba...
Now is the perfect time to inflate the gold bubble. When it busts, either small or large, that will not be wasted either.
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