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The Shorts Have Left The Building
Following the market's "sudden" realization in December that the ECB had been quietly pumping $800 billion, or more than the entire QE2, into the market (sterilized? yeah right - when one lends out cash in exchange for worthless crap nobody else wants, and certainly not the Bundesbank, it is not sterilized), it became all too clear that the market's response in 2012 would be a deja vu of 2011, if only for a while. Sure enough 2012 has been a tic-for-tic transposition of the market move in 2011. The only question is how far it would go, before, like back in 2011 again, it rolled over. To get a sense of one of the best indicators of an overextended rally, we go to the NYSE whose short interest update confirms that the rally, at least based on ongoing short squeeze dynamics (which as we said in mid-January has been the best strategy for a bizarro market) is now over. Sure enough, according to the latest data, short interest has collapsed from a multi-year high in September of 16 billion shorts, which coincided with the market lows, to essentially the lowest print seen in the past 4 years at 12.5 billion shares, a level which has not been breached once in the New Normal phase of market central planning. In other words, those who look at short interest and covering as a market inflection point, the time has come to take advantage of the short mauling, and bet on the market rolling over. That said, all it takes is for a central bank chairman somewhere to sneeze the wrong way, and this best laid plan will promptly collapse.
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Well here's one short that hasn't disappeared.. but it's been a while since I've seen a meaningful triple digit loss in the DJI.
These bastards think they are so smart. Fuck them.
Time to play the game.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7vddTgeS6Q
econ1996 go take a nice acid bath and get off the planet douchebag!
I bet your IQ is over 91, that was so 4th grade.
Isn't BB speakign today? Time to buy silver/gold.
All that means is the bigger it gets, the harder it will fall.
Take physical delivery of Au and Ag.
Poor fucking bear can't catch a break in this town. Only a falling knife.
"not sterilized" is akin to laundered, isn't it? so best to sell drugs at this point as it's a radically more honest game than these motherfucking venal bankers and institutions.
What is the graph, shorts to total volume is it still at a low? or toward the high?
Thank you everyone for cooperation and dropping the short interest hence bringing the moment of truth sooner.
Not all shorts. This is not your beautiful house, same as it ever was.
To: shorts of the world
From: FOMC, NYFED, PPT, ECB, BOE, et. al.
All your attempted market breakdowns are belong to us.
yes, now if only my april puts catch a bid.
The funny thing about removing the short interest from the market is it removes the breaks from a free fall. Notice when the markets tank into a free fall like the last four times, nobody is short. The short interest acts as the possible case against a price target. As much as I would love to run naked and watch stocks fall into the gutter.
The pragmatic side of my mind tells me to "shut up, put in 5% and my stop loss mark." Or face infinite loss. Shorting stocks IS the breaking mechanism to avoid a complete free fall in equities prices. With no short interest right now, it spells big trouble if anyone as much as sneezes at the market right now.
This weekend is going to be interesting.
For years they have been climbing Mt Everest, once at the top spend a little time milling around and now its just about time to jump off the Mountain.
BANZAI!!!!
IIIIEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!
LawsofPhysics,
Synchronicity, I was just playing that TH video to a friend of mine an hour or so ago.
DavidC
"and you may ask yourself... Where is that invisible boxing midget"?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fuMo38g7P4I
...burning down the house, indeed...
Fighting fire with fire..
I love shorting even going long when the stars line up. But ain't touching this mess. Common sense says its ready to collapse but half assed rumors and central planning makes it impossible to play the game.
Short ban. SBUX at fiddy is a buy.
Just sayin'
it feels weird to write "bullish" if it actually is official...
This would be considered anything but bullish. In fact, it's more likely it signals a top. But, maybe that's just the optimist in me, I'm still sitting on March puts that have been bleeding since Thanksgiving.
Tell me about it.
The paper gold market is thin and still under their thumbs, even with the CB and sovereign physical accumulations.
The silver market is thinner, and even with the Sprott factor still under their thumbs.
The market run up via manipulation and corporate accumulations needs to be protected.
The is the time for position protection for those not free or disposed to bail out.
VIX, VXX and SPXU benefit from this now.
Crocodile Algo has been selling to anything that can fog a mirror...about time to drop the top.
Oh, its a "top" alright. And the 75% of us are on the bottom.
As I understand 9 out of 10 lose their shirts.
Meat for the grinder.
Tell me about it, I've been short the emerging markets since about that time too .
Looking at 33% losses in my retirement account.
Very very unusal market action for past 8 weeks .
This whole year EM futures have not been down 1 day during RTH. I've never seen anything like it.
Hopefully today will change that and the reality of fundamentals can start seeping back into the market.
Investors are like lemmings. Stocks go up, they buy. Stocks go down, they sell.
Problem now is, Mr Lennon...who is left to buy this garbage? Cant make the shorts cover when none exist.
Huh...guess it must be 'QE3' time then...yea sure.
WTF you are going to troll me?
Fine. Like I said on the last page, QE has never stopped. Do I need to break it down for you again, or can you start reading Tyler's articles?
Yea! I ADMIT that for months! TROLL!
Whats wrong, you pissed that I HAVE been right ever since last January with everyones 'QE3 comin any minute now' I said theyre not going to announce any QE3! Simple enough point yet?
Treasury auctions, PDs buy, flip to Fed. Fed runs a POMO and/or initiates OT2. What the fuck is that if not a form of easing?
Wow....you are totally serious. I was hoping you were joking.
Lets see if you can get a SIMPLE point! I said theyre never going to ANNOUNCE a 'QE3 package'...was I right? Or just perpetually wrong is your view? SHEESH!
Are you serious? You want credit for claiming that the Fed would backdoor their next easing strategy? Who gives a fuck!?
I ! SAID! THERE! WOULD! BE! NO! QE3! 'PACKAGE AMOUNT' ANNOUNCED!
You want a cookie?
Fuck off troll!
OH ok....so ANYTHING is 'QE3' now? LOL whatever.
No you completely miss my SIMPLE point that I've said for a year that these ass hats are not going to announce any 'QE3 package' of $1.5 trillion or whatever the amount for free money for stocks EVERYONE was saying was coming on every FOMC press release, every Jacksons Kornhole retreat, or every time Bernank opened his stupid yap. Get it, YET?
I don't care.
Well then stop trolling my comments telling me Im wrong then if you dont care.
Funny guys!
This is the cheapest entertainment I've had in weeks.
even those craigslist hookers ?
Hey those Craigslist hookers get expensive after a while!
I also assume QE is still going, but the name changes to protect the guilty. Gotta keep the presses running, or the whole thing blows up.
I'm so short, I've got thongs not shorts !
Let's go baby !
The only shorts out there are against silver and gold. And they are backed by the TBTF banks.
EUO, FXP BABY!!!!! Let's ride!
Let them get excited. Cant wait for a good long squeeze.
first of all, let's welcome the new guy to zH!
second, a "good long squeeze" makes it sound kinda like rosiePalm is about to engage the earl0'morrningWood in a liquidity trap
so, maybe you could go with the more traditional "bear raid" [which is great w/ bearBeerTM and popcorn]
or the zeroHead preference of the tyleresque "bearCavalry"TM as in: Let them get excited. the bearCav is on its way, BiCheZ!
now, go jerk off!
Somethin' to wash down that popcorn...
Waaay off topic, but where is Dexter when you need him?
http://gma.yahoo.com/millionaire-polo-club-founders-children-want-adoption-girlfriend-090048510--abc-news.html
I see Mr. Sack has started his day 30 min early today.
countertrend players rejoicing your .8% day
HATERS GONNA HATE
The Dow will test 12k in a few weeks, but due to the unlimited currency printing we are trapped in a range between 12k and 13k. There are a few triggers that will break the range (War/Greek deault) and who knows what will happen to FX/equity/bonds.
Might as well long straddle everything starting in March.
Straddle whatever you can! And good luck!
I think AAPL is toppy, at least near term.
AAPL always gets jittery around numbers that end in 00.
Hey Slaughterer do you have the stomach for this one? I like your posts. These guys are all in AAPL TV let me know what you think?
Nuance did the ASR for Siri. They have smart, cool engineers, but middling acquisition-hungry management. Their earnings still blow (see yesterday's Q4). Without a clear monetization path for voice rec, NUAN is a high P/E spec play, that can go up and down like a yo yo. AAPL TV has to have much more than SIRI to be a successful innovation. Also, from what I know, the iPad 3 refresh is just about resolution and speed--nothing that breaks new ground except the 4G cap. AAPL may be valued very low, but I go along with Tyler that last quarter's AAPL earnings were distorted by the need for consumers to memorialize the death of SJ, and that flexible accumulation capital for iPads will get increasingly scarcer this year.
Absolutely.
That's why BAC is 65% higher from 4.92 low 6 weeks ago.
Benny and Mario have guaranteed nobody will collapse and shorts were killed and primary dealers piled up on BAC and other financials.
Another primary dealer is about to go POOP soon as soon as US financials start collapsing.
Nobody shorted BAC at $4.92 ...... unless you did, but that's about it. $4.92 is when the people to correctly shorted it covered....and they're shorting it again now
Thx for feedback.
If memory serves me? Isn't the 5$ area the Buffett strike/warrant buy in area?
7.24
Greece will make sure this rally is over. Not just this short one but also the bear market rally we're in.
It still amazes me , how the "ASS Hats ", at CNBS talk up the Green arrow days. When the markets get rational they turn into "Teething Toddlers", and talk alot about nothing!
About a month ago I realized that 5 minutes of Santelli was not nearly worth the hours of shit that make up the rest of a CNBS day. I turned it off and it feels real good.
If we all think it is time to go short, hold on tight - it's time to go long and stay there. Again. Market collapse will simply not be allowed. You will see. If the cheap legal fixees don't work, they will resort to more overt and forceful measures. The gloves will come off. Greece will be fixed by a fake, pseudo-fix, after some noise and violence, and the Empire will continue its program of domination and subjugation.
In a country that is obviously so in the thrall of the TBTFs and the 1%ers, which just gave a mssive pass to banks for systemic fraud and widespread criminality in their foreclosure filings, that is the safe bet. Regrettably.
There are certainly a few more shorts to shake out of the banana tree N/Z.
Oh it WILL collapse, sometime, maybe not today or next trading day...but you cant say the very nature of markets is now over...money goin down is JUST as good as the money goin up! Same as it ever was, they dont care.
I give it until March 20, greek default day.
Have to disagree. "Fixing" a completely broken system isn't their endgame. Creating a NEW more centrally planned and controlled system is and always was the plan. That is precisely why when the markets were collapsing, members of the EU, talking heads on MSM, etc. were all calling for sovereigns to surrender more control to the EU. The Euro's woes were blamed on a "lack of fiscal and governmental cooperation." They put a band-aid over a gaping wound and for a few months, all was well.
The next stage is upon us. The only way you can get entire nations to surrender their national sovereignty is to have panic in the markets and blood on the streets. The Euro won't fully implode, but it will begin to experience a ton of weakness at some point. That'll lead to the ECB massively expanding its balance sheet, which then (as ZH has pointed out) will lead to the Federal Reserve doing the same.
I'm still betting on the USD collapsing before the Euro does. All it'll take is China/Russia to say they'll no longer accept USD as payment and will no longer buy US debt.
Not sure we disagree, since I think you're right. I don't think however, China and Russia accepting USDs or buying Us Debt will change a thing. You may have noticed, as posted by Tyler, that the Fed is largely the buyer of the incremental supply of US debt over the past year. That role - of monetizing the debt - will be expanded, to infinity if necessary. Those who don't like it will be facing the wrong end of gun, eventually. Fiat will be enforced, one way or the other. "It's for your own good."
Bear with me a moment: I have really begun to understand that those of us here on ZH who have a functioning moral or ethical compass - and the spirit of ZH is such that there are many of us - may fall victim to predicting outcomes based on rational behavior or some notion that eventually the rules will apply, e.g, "the markets will fall", "I will win because I have physical gold", etc. I think that is not the case, and we need to probe and understand the criminal mind, which does not think that way and operates in a completely different world. There is no doubt that the criminals are in charge - the entire system is riddled with corruption. They will simply pick up the guns when they are cornered. Hard to wrap your head around that if you are a normal person. This is why wars occur.
Shorts aren't necessarily betting on a "market collapse", a nice correction works just fine.
Humans have left the building. I was surprised to see an HFT article from AP titled "Turbo-traders take Bank of America for a ride". It's hard to fool retail Joe twice using the same trick.
Can you provide a link?
Quick note for ZH editors (and others) re High Frequency Trading (off topic but just got this and relevant to your interests)
Ultrafast Trades Trigger Black Swan Events Every Day, Say Econophysicists
http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/27562/
"evidence that the behaviour of financial markets changes dramatically on timescales shorter than a certain threshold level. This threshold, they say, is more or less exactly equal to the human reaction times."
Econophysicists Trigger Bullshit Tidal Wave, Says Sanity
I'm going to take my rent money for this month and go all in. THESE MARKETS ARE ON FIRE!
Not all shorts have left the building.
The only 'buyers' in this fume filled 'market' are shorts being squeezed
I think you're right. We are in some kind of feed-back loop, as soon as we have some bad news we get some fresh shorting and that creates the opportunity for the HFTs to go to work squeezing them out. We will be making fresh highs as the Greeks announce that they are leaving the Euro.
Gov and brokerages will push the market to the new height regardless what the hell happened.
Gov want new highs because that will boost consumer confidences. Having people's networth going up, they may tend to buy more and spend more. Gov want recovery based on consumer spending and people buying up more houses.
Brokerage want new high because they want to sequeeze the shorts and hedge funds. And they want people who park the money to jump back in again. That's why there are so many articles saying the time to buy is now. They want to pound the idea of "don't miss the rally" into investor's mind.
I doubt we will see any closing days with loss of 180 points or more. HFT will work extra hours just to push the market up. With vapor volume, it is extremely manageable.
GREEK DEBT = WORTHLESS CRAP
If fiat money is debt, and money gets created out of nothing, then debt is created out of nothing.
Gold looking pretty good on the 5, 8, 10 year time horizon.
http://www.kitco.com/charts/techcharts_gold.html
S&P is definitely toppy:
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/SPX/charts
Did you see Jim Sinclair's way he forecasts gold prices on his page, very interesting.
This one?
"
Source: http://www.jsmineset.com/
(I hadn't, went and found that, so thanks. Prediction is over $10,000/ounce eventually, wow).
That's it. I started reading him every day
"New Normal phase of market central planning"
I'd feign shock and surprise but that'd be ignoring a lot of the rest of the world around us...another example of novum normalis:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-10/fed-plays-wall-street-favorites...
it's the rumor of a rumor that keeps this market afloat; therefore, today is probably just a one-day down "glitch" until the rumor mill spits out another one.
The purpose of the stock market is to take excess money out of the system, not to make people rich.
Great Harry Dent and Dan Albert interview about the powerfull and secular deflationary forces. NOTE NO GOLD PUMPING IN THIS INTERVIEW. Get ready for a crash in the upcoming future.
http://bloom.bg/A3miLd#ooid=t0cjNlMzqSeVQx-n26X_F944zsEbffQv
A lot of FED pie holes moving starting Tue. of next week. Be careful.
Totally agree.
Next Friday we have options expiry. The absolutely one thing and one thing only holding up this farce of market is FED and ECB pledge that they won't allow financials to fail.
But they have no option, somebody has to fail, same as Lehman.
been slowly buying srs since november slowly losing money. what's the saying you go broke slowly, then all at once.
An invisible sign hangs over the NYSE, NO SHORTING ALLOWED!!!!
The purdee chart that Tyler has provided us shows all we need to know. Since October, at the height of short contracts, in spite of all the "fundamental indicators" and technical data that suggested it would be a good time to short equities, euro's, etc, the markets have "magically " melted up for the past five months. Any major short position on any given instrument has methodically been squeezed out, stomped on, beaten down and bloodied. Great case in point...how has BAC gone fron 4.95 to 8.00...? ZIRP TO INFINITY!
Primary dealers are buying each other hoping the suckers will come in. HFT exacerbates that by 60%.
They did that in 1930, except for HFT.
But how can that happen, we broke above th edown trend from last year, swo that's the buy signal, you mean the algo's ramped up the market to pass the buy signal for the retail customer. that could never happen, suing short squeeze to get it there. Please. without manipulated markets we would have any campaign contributions so we know it will never end.
Technical or Fundamental analysis works only when the market functions properly. When the Fed - Primary Dealers-government get involved, no more market since they can create infinite amount of money.
"We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors…and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do."[2]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reality-based_community
This is a bunch of bs. It's an excuse. The market is definitely working properly by acknowledging the influence of the Fed. Technical analysis still works. Describe to me when we had a "properly functioning market"? Was it before the financial crisis when housing prices were irrationally high or was it in the 90s when stocks were very overvalued. A true trader simply analyzes the market of which the Fed has been the biggest player since 1913.
Greece is the party pooper for this Rally!
(Wall Street Prays day and night that Greece plays along with them)
Market is down. Happy now.
Stop buying stocks, people, and spread the word to your family and friends. If we all get out, they can't win. They depend on fleecing the sheeple. Don't be one. Let them choke on their losses when the inevitable crashes occur.
The question is mining shares. I'm sort of ambivalent on that one.