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Silver Corzined, Stocks Einhorn'd, Financials/HYG Iksil'd

Tyler Durden's picture




 

S&P 500 e-mini futures closed at their day-session lows, below yesterday's day-session lows, and heading for overnight lows rapidly - once again giving up some decent early gains amid much heavier volume into the close. Markets were a mess today. Risk-assets in general had the highest intra-correlation in a long-time - with FX, credit, rates, curves, and stocks moving in almost lockstep all day (up then down). Equities were smashed left, right, and center by comments from the Ira Sohn conference (as it seems people have given up reading hedge fund 13Fs) with Einhorn's comments in particular showing up just how fragile and thin the real liquidity picture is so many stocks. Silver plunged just after the European close (margin/collateral calls?) and dragged the rest of the commodity complex down with it as stocks basically turned on a dime after hitting yesterday's closing VWAP this morning. Treasury yields rose and plunged in the same pattern - ending the day marginally lower than overnight low yields at the long-end but marginally higher at the short-end (post FOMC minutes). Financials were the worst performer again, down around 1.5%, with the majors in particular now starting to catch up to credit market's long-held conviction on these names (with MS -10.5% YTD and BofA plunging today but still +27.8% YTD). Gold remained relatively stable getting a lift post-FOMC (along with silver as the inevitability of QE was clear - but an equity plunge necessary before it can occur). Credit markets are not done worrying yet - and that weighed on JPM (-2%) as IG9 pushed above 150bps offered for the first time this year and HYG (the high-yield bond ETF) collapsed along with HY credit spreads. Still doesn't feel capitulative as overnight nerves for Greece remain high.

HYG plummeted today, its biggest drop in over 2 months and nearing its 200DMA and to its lowest in 4 months 9amid its highest volume in 4 months!) - catching up to HY18's dismal performance as credit overall continues to lead stocks lower...

HYG is seeing escalating volume, multiple sigma price drops, and multi-month low prices (there's a reason high-yield bonds are well high-yield...)...

BUT note that HYG merely plummeted to catch up with SPY's recent deterioration - and is now massively cheap to intrinsics (real bond-based fair-value). What worries us now is that this will cause the PMs to start selling the HY bonds in the underlyng portfolio should we see redemptions and into an illiquid falling market...

Silver dominated the moves in commodities today - with a post-Europe close plunge that recovered some in the afternoon as we suspect liquidations continue...

Which is interesting as we note the Gold/Silver ratio is now back to unchanged YTD and sitting at what seems to be an important historical level...

Financials continue to mean-revert to reality...

Intraday, credit markets led stocks lower (mainly HYG and VXX driven - upper left chart below) but across broad risk-assets, CONTEXT and ES were in almost perfect sync all day (right hand side charts) with correlation extremely high and systemic (lower right chart). VIX pushed higher again (as expected) and tracked with equity/credit implied fair for much of the afternoon (lower left chart)...

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 

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Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:27 | 2432935 Rahm
Rahm's picture

Hang Corzine

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:44 | 2433005 Max Fischer
Max Fischer's picture

 

 

Silver and Gold = MonkeyHammered

USD = longest rally since 1985

 

Tim/Ben = 100

Goons =    0

Don't fuck with the Fed.

MF

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:45 | 2433011 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

Do you have any mental issues?

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 17:12 | 2433082 flacon
flacon's picture

I suggested a few days back to buy FAZ (triple short the financials). Glad I did. Did anyone else buy FAZ?

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 17:46 | 2433198 Bizaro World
Bizaro World's picture

Unfortunately I did not see your FAZ recommendation but I was thinking along your same lines. I had shorted financials via SEF, simple inverse on financials, no leverage....woulda coulda shoulda but at least didn't miss it all.

BW

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 18:52 | 2433343 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

nice, tyler!  bottoms up!

bong-ho, BiCheZ!

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 18:51 | 2433346 Jack Napier
Jack Napier's picture

You'll be lucky to get your money back out of these deriviatives, which is what you are investing in. When the house of cards comes down only gold and silver will be left standing. Your buying window is waning.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 20:45 | 2433603 flacon
flacon's picture

I don't disagree with your thoughts.

 

FAZ is a 2008-style "deflation" hedge. Remember the miners, gold, silver etc in 2008? They all crashed while FAZ jumped to 10,000/share.

 

 

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 23:41 | 2434066 q99x2
q99x2's picture

You bought some of my shares.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 05:05 | 2434403 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

faz fails too often. Better leverage vs spy (4x) using VXX. I'm even using a VXX call right now, not the actual shares.

http://scharts.co/Mn7ecf

I'd say in this case by shares you're equal both ways for recent performance.

I'd say for Options FAZ did better so far but I distrust it based on past correlation problems with SPY - simply trending the wrong direction or far too weak compared to what it's to attempt at 3x bearish vs SPY/s&p500.

Anyhow, best of luck to both our trades

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 17:13 | 2433091 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

An update on the 10 year: 1.77%! Phenomenal! The flight to safety is on. And much to the dismay of doomer golbugs, it is to US Treasuries, NOT gold and silver. 

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 17:17 | 2433095 flacon
flacon's picture

....but you can't EAT treasuries. 

....and TREASURE is gold and silver anyway, NOT paper. My first grader knows that! 

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 17:38 | 2433169 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

first graders value candy more than metal.

toys are all candy colored and not many silver or gold.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 17:49 | 2433206 IndicaTive
IndicaTive's picture

My third grader picked out her own first silver eagle at the coin shop a few months ago. They also had a candy dish. She liked the candy, and loves the coin.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 19:51 | 2433484 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

for you, and your daughter,

Teach your children well, their father's hell did slowly go by,
And feed them on your dreams, the one they picked, the one you're known by.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EkaKwXddT_I&feature=related

wisdom.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 18:04 | 2433238 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Candy is often wrapped in gold or silver foil.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 19:32 | 2433441 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

I'd switch to a chocolate loonie currency if the chocolate was a better quality. Those gold coins are for kids.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 20:10 | 2433529 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

That'd sure throw the banksters for a loop, wouldn't it?

Maybe we should back the currency with Cocoa beans- at least no one can claim that you can't eat them.

My hypothetical vote is for dark chocolate, though- that milk stuff is just too sweet to make good money.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 17:34 | 2433158 Ookspay
Ookspay's picture

Saftey? Treasuries, the prettiest horse in the glue factory!

In 2022 T-bills will make excellent toilet paper. I will pay you in gold to wipe my ass! Tool!

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 17:45 | 2433196 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

however, government will subtract 28% of your gold's value as collectible tax + 10% sales tax on whatever you buy with it.

 

so you may win against someone with dollars hidden under the mattress, but you will still need to sell more gold for real assets due to tax eating away big chunk of your "profit".

 

only way to win is leverage up on metals.

 

so basically we are all fucked.

 

 

 

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 18:02 | 2433234 Ookspay
Ookspay's picture

28% of the "gain". "I paid $2500 for my gold and I have the reciepts to prove it" Hedge your Gold purchases by investing in blank invoices...

Besides, I will not be selling my Gold for FRN's, I will be trading it for essentials, like lead.

But I did give you an UP for the "We are all Fucked" comment.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 21:14 | 2433694 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

All my invoices were on the boat that went down with my gold.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 22:30 | 2433928 Ookspay
Ookspay's picture

LOL! Zhedge readers are witty, well read and mostly brilliant, but really shitty boaters. I'm sorry about your loss.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 18:10 | 2433249 resurger
resurger's picture

How about barter AH?

 

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 18:37 | 2433303 Whalley World
Whalley World's picture

I think that when you own p.m.'s you can exchange them without the government knowing.  Unless you are a tool, trade for what you need and starve the beast

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 21:27 | 2433728 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

Correct, not just in theory, but in practice as well.

I've "sold" over 100 oz of silver to private parties, as part of the pump priming I've described here in the past.  By comparison, I've sold (note the lack of quotes) 4 oz of silver to retail storefronts.  1oz was an experiment, and the other three were a desperation move because I messed up my weekly budget, needed to cover gas and lunches for a week (Yes, life is that cheap out here in the sticks.)  In both cases where I sold retail, I got *ahem* "monkeyhammered".  The private barter/sales have all been profitable, and helped me prep at a lower dollar cost average than I would have had using USD.  And though few talk about it in these terms, prepping is the real trade.  The money saved by sidestepping food inflation with a pantry absolutely smokes the returns on equities in this climate, and that leaves dry powder to snatch up stagnant or depricating goods that are still in the CPI index.

Only a fool sells retail, and only retail reports capital gains.  If you're buying silver, you're buying apocalypse funds, and you need to use it accordingly.  Gold is a different matter, but silver is for beans and bullets- if you keep to that paradigm, it's a no-brainer.  Buying silver is not an "investment"- it's a currency exchange- I don't tell the .gov what I buy in cash, and I refuse to do so for my silver transactions as well- it's not even tax evasion; I paid withholding tax on the income, and sales tax on the coins- what I do with them after that is my own business.  And TPTB agree- why else call PMs "commodities"?  After all, no one taxes you for wheat in your pantry because the price of bread went up.

I don't say this to be a pain in the ass, or just to see myself type, either- any one of us could have made more money this year by buying equities and timing the sale correctly.  If you are bored enough to look it up, I recommended BAC for this at about 4.50- a guy doing that would have made a damn nice fiat profit, even if they held it from then until today.  Silver is, despite the constant whining of Max Keiser and MDB, different.  It is one of the few ways to withdraw consent- even if you take a material loss, it's a political statement about the currency system.  Subborn bitchez like me enjoy that sort of thing, and are willing to forgo a new car and a Rolex to make a point.

If you're reading this, and that does not describe your attitude, steer clear of the devil's metal.  I still believe that silver is for longs only, and anyone betting short term in either direction is asking for trouble- few things move faster, harder, or more irrationally.  If you're not fighting the establishment, you need to buy or short (depending on your dispostion) the FB IPO tomorrow, and proceed from there.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 21:37 | 2433769 Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

I have said this many times. Buying the precious above all: IS AN ACT OF REBELLION!!!

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 22:39 | 2433950 Ookspay
Ookspay's picture

Great Post!

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 23:46 | 2434078 Nage42
Nage42's picture

Sounds like you are well ahead of the game.  My only suggestion to you sir is that you ensure you are using a Tor onion router, clear your caches, and never use your handle on a public machine.

You've openly declared that you are bypassing sales tax and in the new normal of the USSA that will be tantamount to "you are a t3rrorist and must have all of your assets nationalized as you go for 'retraining' in a FEMA camp."

Do be careful sir.

Have you considered expatriation to somewhere less draconian?

Nage42.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 04:16 | 2434365 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

#1 black market barter coins for goods/services

#2 tax-free brokerage account (Canada)

#3 emigrate from USA if you can. NOW.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 19:25 | 2433420 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

MillionDollarBankrupt  "..to the dismay of doomer golbugs, it is to US Treasuries, NOT gold and silver."

it's not to the Russel 2000 either, Bernank must be upset

it's not to the stock markets either, are you crying?

do you know how much of the Treasury market is now effectively owned (and propped up) by the counterfitters at the Fed???

...haven't you got the sneaking feeling the US Govt is living on borrowed time (money)? ..they can't even decide a budget let alone a balanced one, how do you think they can run a country you pinhead?!!

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 22:00 | 2433853 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

Zero Govt...MDB has no money, notta, zero, no capital. MDB's words are clearly indicative of that.

He is a liberal democrat and AMATEUR ala Obama. The state is his savior not savings and investment.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 22:24 | 2433909 bilbert
bilbert's picture

Yeah, you can't eat Treasuries, but I understand it costs less than $5 an ounce to print them.

sarc/off

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 19:33 | 2433443 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Eally Ucked asked Max Fischer:

Do you have any mental issues?

Any? He has the entire set.

 

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:53 | 2433025 fuu
fuu's picture

Your sub $20/oz call by summer last spring is almost coming true.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 18:56 | 2433354 Jack Napier
Jack Napier's picture

It won't go below 20, but it will probably hit 21. Too bad you won't be able to buy any at that price, and then when the QE spigot is turned back on it will be too late and the price will skyrocket. Buy metal now bitchez.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 19:35 | 2433444 Chump
Chump's picture

No I'm going to time this window perfectly, even though I've been wrong wrong wrong since 2009...

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 22:23 | 2433912 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

try 1971! 

FORTUNES have been made fading my calls...  L0L!!!

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 20:20 | 2433548 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

What is "price" if it doesn't mean "the amount of fiat you need to buy" something?

I sense a contradiction.  Or a misconception.  Or maybe both.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 18:20 | 2433026 fuu
fuu's picture

Totally OT but what type of music do you listen to?

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 18:50 | 2433336 Ookspay
Wed, 05/16/2012 - 19:27 | 2433389 fuu
fuu's picture

Outside the mythos is where it's at.

Nice bio.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_b6opMEu-zM

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 20:15 | 2433538 Ookspay
Ookspay's picture

Saw them live! Loud, long and awesome! IMHO, Steve Bartek is one of the most talented guitarist of all time. Danny Elfman is a true musical genius. Now he is almost completely deaf and still composes movie scores and soundtracks. SIIICK!

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 21:55 | 2433825 KennyG09
KennyG09's picture

I wish I could uptick your bio

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 22:16 | 2433895 Ookspay
Ookspay's picture

LOL Kenny, me onli pon in gam of lif!

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 01:32 | 2434223 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

The EU is just a Dead Man's Party!

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 08:50 | 2434754 Ookspay
Ookspay's picture

Nice tie-in Rocky... "everybody's coming, leave your body at the door."

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:58 | 2433058 wisefool
wisefool's picture

+1.First order control systems.

JTyler, is it possible that we get children of men pictographs in here?

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 17:00 | 2433064 resurger
resurger's picture

My Love XoXo ...........................

 

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 17:02 | 2433074 SRSrocco
SRSrocco's picture

MAX FISCHER JUST PROVED.... HUMANS HAVE AN ATTENTION SPAN OF A GNAT

well done MAX...

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 17:07 | 2433080 wisefool
wisefool's picture

Let me know when you have faced an SS yankee white agent like Timmah face to face. Untill then, stack shiny metals with your shedenfrueden attention span. Pb. > Au. > Ag.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 18:36 | 2433301 Canadian Dirtlump
Canadian Dirtlump's picture

Did you ever hear about Bobby Fischer's (the brilliant chess master) conjoined twin? They were joined at the brain, and let's just say bobby made out with most of it in the operation and Mad Max spends his days eating glue.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 17:40 | 2433168 silverserfer
silverserfer's picture

This goon just BTFD bitch!

The noose is tightening around the bond monkeys neck ever so slowly.  

Phyzz for $28.5/oz today in hand. Unencumbered. Bitchez.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 19:03 | 2433373 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

"Silver and Gold = MonkeyHammered"

Gold: http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au0365nyb.html

Cliff notes version: High of appx. $1,900/oz. Today's close $1540.30, or a $359.70 / 19% loss

Silver: http://www.kitco.com/charts/techcharts_silver.html

Cliff notes version: High of appx. $50/oz. Today's close $27.27, or a $22.73 / 45% loss.

 

AAPL: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AAPL+Interactive#symbol=AAPL;range=1y

Cliff notes version: High of $644.00. Today's close $546.08, or a $97.92 / 15% loss.

NFLX: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=NFLX+Interactive#symbol=NFLX;range=1y

Cliff notes version: High of 304.79. Today's close $74.20. or a $230.59 / 76% loss.

 

 

UV

Civic Honda

 

 

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 19:16 | 2433398 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Max  -  the Fed are the No.1 reason for the 95% destruction in the value of the US Dollar

..you've got your head stuck too far up your arse to see right from wrong

..it's not about "fuking with the Fed" it's about the Fed fucking up the economy. Monopolists (on money) are always a tragedy, aren't Greenspan and Bernankes policies destructive to Americas prosperity and contribute to its demise?

How does rigging the Gold price help anyone is society?

Answers on a Postcard to: Deranged Sociopaths, Washington DC

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 20:26 | 2433568 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

He doesn't seem to understand that there's no better way to HELP the Fed devalue dollars than to buy the metals.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 20:11 | 2433528 xtop23
xtop23's picture

Seriously. We should all jump in where we're being steered so we can become paupers when they pull the rug out, right?

Fuck that herd mentality crap.

Fundamentals win out eventually and the world's financial fundamentals are nauseatingly bad.

Sitting on a stack of metal and relaxing is eminently preferable to taking my chances in a rigged game.

You go right ahead and chase alpha.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 05:49 | 2434429 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Fucking with the Fed has given me consistent returns.

I'm not afraid to short gold peaks but this isn't one of them.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:55 | 2433051 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

ZH figures on yahoo  home page today..

Greek bank run pics

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:26 | 2432940 max2205
max2205's picture

Good one TD!

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:27 | 2432942 sockratte
sockratte's picture

and greece merkel'd...

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:27 | 2432943 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

So lifelike, it seems almost real.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 17:30 | 2433147 worbsid
worbsid's picture

Same as Jerry Brown's Californication.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:30 | 2432947 JohnKozac
JohnKozac's picture

Timmy's "Strong dollar" is great for USA exports, right?

We can then "export our way out of the Depression."

Not!

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:28 | 2432950 battle axe
battle axe's picture

Wait for Friday, you know there will be some big announcement out of Europe. They always wait for the weekend to do that shit....

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:33 | 2432968 ParaZite
ParaZite's picture

Correction. After hours / After the market closes on Friday. 

So everyone has time to watch TV / Play Golf, and forget about the troubled stock market. 

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:31 | 2432955 Mercury
Mercury's picture


Silver Corzined, Stocks Einhorn'd, Financials/HYG Iksil'd

                                    A SIMPLE DESULTORY PHILIPPIC

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 00:45 | 2434173 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

nice w/ pSimon here, M_y:

verse1:

I been Norman Mailered, Maxwell Taylored. I been John O'Hara'd, McNamara'd. I been Rolling Stoned and Beatled till I'm blind. I been Ayn Randed, nearly branded Communist, 'cause I'm left-handed. That's the hand I use, well, never mind!

Simon and Garfunkel - A Simple Desultory Philippic
Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:31 | 2432959 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

And credit got Bernankeed.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:31 | 2432960 Madcow
Madcow's picture

mining stocks suggesting that gold is going to zero -  which makes sense in a mad max scenario.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:42 | 2433003 Pete15
Pete15's picture

12 years of Gold and Silver being up it is due to slow down, especially with the manipulation. Miners are dirt cheap if Gold goes to zero then fundamentals dont matter. Ppl will run to the dollar out of fear but it is not safe either and when that time comes Gold and Silver will explode.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:49 | 2433023 CitizenPete
CitizenPete's picture

of course gold and esp. silver are dropping like a rock, now that we are in full recovery, real estate is coming back, there aren't enough people to fill the available 6 figure jobs, the Federal Government has been disbanded and there is no more pork spending or income taxes, The Federal Reserve went to 50% reserve currency and credit before decalring itself closed except for check processing.  Inflation and defaltion are a thing of the past, as we are now in a true market driven economy without any intervention or bailouts of any kind.  It's all good. 

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 20:25 | 2433573 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

I think I see what you're getting at.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 17:00 | 2433067 xela2200
xela2200's picture

Most people are sheep selling to the "we buy gold" scam businesses, so they can buy another Xbox game. By the time the sheep figure it out, they will be buying at the top. Explosion in Gold will come from Central Bankers and other financial institutions. Once China or someone else starts to back a currency or as a hedge by funds. Right now there is confidence in the Dollar. Printing Fiat would start to erode that confidence, then we can begin to see a change in attitude. Until then PM will go side ways at best.

In a "normal" market gold would be indicating a coming deflationary period as also indicated by a "stronger" dollar. I believe that the FED is a lot more scare of a deflation spiral than Gold going up in value. People cannot make the connection between currency and gold yet. If it goes up it is just another commodity like oil or coffee. It is just less jewelry that can be purchased. After all everything is going up anyways.

Lastly, I doubt very much that this economy can hold until year end without some type of intervention. I believe the TWIST operation has been causing markets to behave erratically, and once it is over we could start to see violent moves.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:56 | 2433047 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

mining stocks suggesting that gold is going to zero -  which makes sense in a mad max scenario.

************

Care to explain how you came to that conclusion?

All major mining stocks that i hold (a bunch) all finished positive in a down market-usually-but not always a bullish indicator-

 

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:31 | 2432965 dereksatkinson
dereksatkinson's picture

13 days up in a row on the US dollar.  We should probably get a pullback in here.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 17:07 | 2433078 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

It must be in a secular bull then.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:32 | 2432971 bania
bania's picture

I feel my Financialese is improving the more i read Zerohedge. "To Corzine"... I Corzine, you Corzine, he/she/it Corzines...

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:37 | 2432977 magpie
magpie's picture

Cease this corzinery at once !

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:50 | 2433032 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

No, I say continue. It lets one buy more at a lower price. The best analysis I have seen on PMs have come from Marshall Swing. Commercials have been net short for a while now so lower PM prices have been suggested by Marshal for a while. I have been dollar averaging down ward. The commercials over the last few weeks have been unwinding their short positions. Maybe JP is one of them. But they are getting close to being flat and going starting to build a net long position. The small speculators got killed which is why I have been buying small amounts as we go lower. I love it.

I also saw an article on backwardation on PMs. In other words, the futures price was lower then the spot (cash) price. This shouldn't happen in a normal market but it has sporadically, thus supporting the idea that PMs would decline as it has. But now we are seeing that the later futures months in PMs are not backwardating. The author theorizes that a tight supply demand situation may be building up with to much paper PM and not enough physical to cover it.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:55 | 2433050 Seorse Gorog fr...
Seorse Gorog from that Quantum Entanglement Fund. alright_.-'s picture

You can use it in your stand up routine. But I got one for you. 'Why do they call it ovaltine?...'

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 17:07 | 2433079 bania
bania's picture

that's old material, thinking i should freshen it up... "Why do they call it Corzintine? The account's vaporized. The market's vaporized. They should call it Vaportine."

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:38 | 2432989 ss123
ss123's picture

"Silver Corzined, Stocks Einhorn'd, Financials/HYG Iksil'd"

You forgot "Apple Cored"

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:40 | 2432991 battle axe
battle axe's picture

Wake me up when Greece defaults and Israel hits Iran......I am going home for a drink.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:41 | 2432995 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Silver aint shit. Let it plunge... I can wait.

Can you?

This reminds me of the Jutland Battle where the English Leader on the HMS Duke was given a rare second chance in life after the German Battle Cruiser gave him the slip.

The second chance he craved was actually the Main German Battleship Line.

Gotta read that history folks...

As far as Silver is concerned the lower it goes below 30.00 the easier it is to accumulate 100 ounces and take delivery. But I am not buying just yet.

27.00 is going to be a interesting event. If it crashes through to 25 then it's gonna have to stop at 19.50

If it does not... well... we are going to all learn when the masses start buying in bulk.

And they will.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 17:44 | 2433175 worbsid
worbsid's picture

It doesn't really get interesting till about 15.00-. See 5 year chart.

http://www.monex.com/prods/silver_chart.html

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 18:41 | 2433317 Canadian Dirtlump
Canadian Dirtlump's picture

It is in backwardation again and I read a piece suggesting that it is more because of tight physical supply more than fear. Any thoughts?

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 21:56 | 2433828 Bohm Squad
Bohm Squad's picture

The term you're looking for (I think) is an inverted market.  Start here for the difference between normal backwardation and an inverted market.  

But yes, whenever the spot price is higher than the future(s) price(s), then there MUST be a benefit for owning now rather than later.  A tight physical supply is only one reason an inverted market can occur.

Right now, futures prices are higher than spot prices indicating a normal market...well, as normal as the silver market can be. ;)

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:48 | 2433000 Paul Atreides
Paul Atreides's picture

Should I load up if Silver breaks $27 tomorrow? or should I hold out for a bigger dip and QE rumours?

Decisions decisions...

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:57 | 2433042 LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

Load up on Carlo Rossi merlot. Good shit. Puts hair on your sack

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 21:55 | 2433822 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

And a smile on your face.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 17:32 | 2433152 flyingpigg
flyingpigg's picture

Hey Paul, you could buy in trances. For instance BTFD! at 27 and BTFD! at 25 and BTFD! at 23 until you've reached your desired position. No difficult decisions, just monkeybuying when silver will be monkeyhammered.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 19:22 | 2433410 AmCockerSpaniel
AmCockerSpaniel's picture

That sounds like a plan to me. 27,25,& 23 I've placed the first limit order (AGQ). Now it's up to Ben to start more printing.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 19:43 | 2433463 ThirdWorldDude
ThirdWorldDude's picture

My game as well - 20 oz per trance, thus lowering the average price with every next shipment.

Think also that at some point phys. won't be available for delivery...

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 21:34 | 2433757 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

So, how do you all get into your trances?  Do you use incense and the Gyatri mantra?

I was going to pass it by, until I saw it twice.  Shame on me.

I think you mean tranches, right?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 01:43 | 2434235 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

You do know that PMs are mesmerizing, right?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 07:42 | 2434570 ThirdWorldDude
ThirdWorldDude's picture

The Sufi methods make wonders for me - if you make a fiat currency spin fast enough, it eventually transmutates into a PM.    :)

 

Thanks for the correction... 

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 22:21 | 2433902 Paul Atreides
Paul Atreides's picture

Thanks pig, sound advice I think I will follow it.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:44 | 2433007 xela2200
xela2200's picture

Interesting that this time around the QE rumor card from the FED didn't worked. I guess that play is done. We are at the show me stage. June's meeting is going to be one for the history books. What a grind...

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:48 | 2433016 Ljoot
Ljoot's picture

SKF was -.90 this morning but closed +1.20. Quite a swing.

 

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:53 | 2433028 Stackers
Stackers's picture

Ordered 2 sealed green monster boxes of new silver eagles today. :)

buying silver that you plan to sell 10 years from now vs. 10 months now makes these dips one big YAWN and a nice discount too. :)

I already got out of the stock markets and bond markets so who gives a phuck what they do ?

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 17:18 | 2433099 jomama
jomama's picture

that's going to be one heavy ass parcel.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 17:43 | 2433185 IndicaTive
IndicaTive's picture

Silver is the buy-and-hold of my lifetime. Better yet, the buy-and-hold of my kids' lifetime. So I'm giving them a head-start. Sadly, only 10 or 20 ounces at a time. I call it the Fist Full of Dollars buying strategy.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 01:00 | 2434197 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

YAY!!!

consider US Mint PM coinage [if you are in USA]

1/10 oz gold bullion coins, 1/4 oz, 1/2 oz are also minted!

i'm w/ you, leafy-green non-indica!  PMs are not for now

free and clear!  for generations!  let's GO, BiCheZ!

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 18:15 | 2433259 Ookspay
Ookspay's picture

Nice! I just internet-google-thingied your address, no worries, I will sign for your package for you tomorrow ; )

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 21:59 | 2433846 Bohm Squad
Bohm Squad's picture

Too late.  I work at FedEx and that package has been, errrr.....lost!  o_0

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 16:49 | 2433033 oldman
oldman's picture

No capitulization in sight; just the same old machines going on and on----it looked good though, especially in the metals, but I am not a believer yet. Maybe this is it---maybe not----on the sidelines like a cat though---and who can tell anything about manipulated markets?

I will say, thoug, if I wanted to bury the metals below here that I would push 'em through and let all that PM money get sucked into the vortex---each step down is a big deal when the machine is facing its own self-destruction.

You stackers are the smart guys---I wish this oldman had some money because when the sun shines again the shiney is really going to be SHINEY!

Stupid oldman           om

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 17:01 | 2433055 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

It's going to be difficult for commodity type assets the next few yrs.  Ag is down 50% in a Yr. The USD is still seen as a safe haven in bad times while silver is seen as a Risk on type asset.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 17:01 | 2433056 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

It's going to be difficult for commodity type assets the next few yrs.  Ag is down 50% in a Yr.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 17:00 | 2433059 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

Sokay, Facebook IPO opens tommorow!! Yaay were all saved.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 17:01 | 2433066 toothpicker
toothpicker's picture

Naked shorting killed the paper silver

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 17:03 | 2433072 css1971
css1971's picture

Like it or not silver is an industrial metal, the stronger the economy the higher it goes.

Watch the gold/silver ratio. I'll be thinking about swapping gold for silver when the ratio goes above 60, though more likely nearer 70. Till then, might as well just hold gold instead.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 21:43 | 2433794 AL_SWEARENGEN
AL_SWEARENGEN's picture

Actually Silver is a monetary metal long before it was an industrial one.  It's only in the past 3-4 decades that Silver has NOT been money going back literally thousands of years.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 21:46 | 2433802 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

So 56:1 isn't good enough for you to average in?

Good luck with your try at top ticking it but something tells me you won't pull the trigger even if the GSR hits your "target".

I don't consider liberty bells as "industrial metal" but the folks at the farmer's market sure do prefer them to trading for fiat.

I still have Au from when the GSR was < 40 and Pt:Au was > 1.15.

It feels good to be diversified (and not leveraged). YMMV.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 17:19 | 2433107 flyingpigg
flyingpigg's picture

Silver is not Corzined. I just looked at my silver coins and they are still there. The title should have read "paper silver Corzined". The drop in SLV is gift for the fysical accumulators. No margin calls for us, hah, just more stuff to buy for the same fiat.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 17:29 | 2433140 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

Where are all thos PM ZH pumpers from 1-2 years ago? They're hiding because they are losers. Fuck em they suck.

They are losing their asses so bad they shit right when they swallow

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 17:34 | 2433162 Diatribe
Diatribe's picture

Just checked, still have about 100 POUNDS of precious metals.  And almost a TON of copper.  Oh, and some LEAD too, bitch.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 18:01 | 2433232 CCanuck
CCanuck's picture

And a sweet avatar.....jiggle,jiggle...love em.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 18:18 | 2433272 noob
noob's picture

sprockets - now i am happy as a little girl
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiUVQ-pla24

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 23:20 | 2434018 Isotope
Isotope's picture

Would you like to touch my monkey?

TOUCH HIM!

                    LOVE HIM!

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 17:36 | 2433166 flyingpigg
flyingpigg's picture

Hey Leva, I gues they are visiting the coin shop to accumulate. I'm indeed losing my ass, laughing my ass off for the price I've to pay today! Don't thumb me down, just BTFD!

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 18:13 | 2433258 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

It's not a loss until you book it bitch. What goes down is going back up for sure. They are trying to hold a beach ball filled with helium under water. It can only last so long. Buy, buy buy and buy the fucking dip.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 18:16 | 2433264 fuu
fuu's picture

An anagram of your name is Vodka Aisle.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 21:30 | 2433746 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

"So Avid Lake" - but that reminds me of my boating accident and
"a soak'd evil".

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 18:10 | 2433251 Memphis10
Memphis10's picture

Some of these comments make me want to bang my head against a wall. :(

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 18:15 | 2433260 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Take the bag off your head before you do.

Tyler paid good money for those head bags.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 18:14 | 2433262 Olympia
Olympia's picture

From the Wall Street Crash of 1929 to the Global Financial Crisis of 2007

 

It all started with the big crisis of 1929. The American economy reached a deadlock because of its social "pathogenesis"; a deadlock that led it to economic crisis in a different - faster- pace than the rest of the industrial forces of that time. Important decisions had to be made - mostly social - and the Whites didn't like that, especially the Whites' rulers, the Anglo-Saxons. The USA society had to either be homogenized and "forget" about racism against black people or find itself in a permanent deadlock that would threaten it with social uprising. If they didn't equate the black working people with their white colleagues so that there wouldn’t be an issue with the salaries that threatened the national currency, they couldn't avoid reactions and all that goes with it.

 

The problem which began as social but was turning into economic was simple. As long as the economy functioned adequately and the Blacks worked and asserted what they deserved for their work, the white employers had to "fund" the white working force with extra money because of their skin color. To avoid complaints from a white worker who received the same salary with his black colleague, the employers had no choice but to give them more money. The demands of the Blacks were used as an excuse by the Whites to demand more and everything ended up in the same pocket, since they were under the same employ. The problem that arose from this "strange" tactic was that the increased takings of the "superior" White employers were seeking outlet in investments and that threatened the capital. Having higher salaries, they bought more houses; they bought stocks and so on.

 

 

www.eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2010/02/ten-plagues-of-pharaoh.html

 

Authored by Panagiotis Traianou

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 18:40 | 2433312 shuckster
shuckster's picture

Naturally, people will pull for their respective dogs in the race, but in the end, the people decide who wins. people don't hate money like the gold bugs seem to constantly buzz about. at the end of the day, we still ask for paper pay checks and pay our car insurance with paper. do we hate paper? perhaps. give me a better option. gold? do i have to haul it around? how to i use gold certificates for transasctions? by hiring my cousin to be a banker for me? no thanks. people are criminals. they steal constantly. i trust my money to the bankers over an itchy guy down the street any day of the year

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 19:04 | 2433375 Debt-Penitent
Debt-Penitent's picture

"trust my money to the bankers"??
Not on my life.
I need a bigger truck to carry my latest phiz buy. Whoo-hoo,
I'm Donald McDuck diving into the vault...coin depth at 90 feet.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 20:32 | 2433590 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

You are correct to point that out that people prefer paper currencies to precious metals as a medium of exchange.  It's an unpopular concept around here, but it's pretty well demonstrated by history. 

If you're like most people, and you'll never possess any significant "wealth" to preserve, there's no reason to buy gold or silver. 

If you ever DO have some wealth, though, and don't want its relative value to hinge on the activities of your elected officials and banking executives, it's nice to have some options.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 05:35 | 2434422 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

I prefer the security of hauling my own gold bar & coin.

Others have had their electronic bank accounts emptied by hackers or by the bank itself illegally with little or zero recourse.

I have no such problem.

I trust the bankers less than I trust an HIV-riddled hooker who says Condoms are for the Devil

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 19:14 | 2433393 zerotohero
zerotohero's picture

A juggler can only juggle for so long - then he drops something and the act is over - he bows and walks off stage - unfortunately the Fed juggles and when it drops something it will still take the perverbial vaudville cane to haul their asses off the stage.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 05:34 | 2434419 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Joke's on you.

When the Fed bungles the juggling act the cane drags YOU away.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 19:29 | 2433433 devo
devo's picture

Anyone know which dealer has the lowest premiums on silver right now?

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 19:37 | 2433447 jomama
Wed, 05/16/2012 - 21:44 | 2433798 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

I like Gainesville coins- they are professional and easy to work with.  Provident Metals has a lower premium, but I and a few others I know have used them, and while the transactions were fulfilled, there were a number of flags that made buying from them shady at best, in every case I've encountered.

I want to clarify, as it seems unfair to just drive-by them.  They take a comparatively long time to process orders, do not update shipping information, and in one case, did not send my delivery until I wrote to complain and threatened to get a lawyer to look into it.  The quality is also all over the place- an average tube of mercs ranges from unciruclated to culls.  All that tells me that they are either bad businessmen, or they are selling silver they don't actually have.  There's no specific allegation of deceit or fraud here- just a heads up that they are not as reliable as others.  They get there eventually, but the couple of bucks you save isn't worth the ulcer, IMO.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 05:32 | 2434418 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

comparesilverprices.com

comparegoldprices.com

Looks like Provident is best today for Monsterboxes

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 20:02 | 2433510 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

Hunt Bros where are you?

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 20:10 | 2433526 jomama
jomama's picture

dunno, i've kind of shot my wad at 40, 35, 30.  if the prices holds for another week, i'll probably dump whatever available bennybux i can on another 100oz.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 20:21 | 2433559 Moonrise
Moonrise's picture

DO YOU HAVE ANY MENTAL ISSUES, MAX FISCHER?

 

Ladies and gentlemen, replying to Max is rather akin to the elephant called Looming Reality bothering to pay attention to the flea on it hide.

 

Give the poor fellow a break. Everyone has to earn living and if you can’t sell your body, well, you can always sell your mind.

Wed, 05/16/2012 - 21:04 | 2433677 boeing747
boeing747's picture

Debts monetized

Workers unionized

Accounting marked

Interest rate twisted

Gold sup...

Stock manu...

Home owners fxxxed

 

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 04:03 | 2434353 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Spot Silver is 27.50 or so as of this post.

This is the bottom. I try to buy towards the 100 ounce goal soon. I will buy in batches to average out the cost.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 07:25 | 2434536 Super Macro
Super Macro's picture

Why do you not get it after four years of banks collpasing ? Its SIMPLE. Banks used to be the BULLY on the block and accounted for 30-40% of US and global stock markets. They are simply collpasing back to a more normal 10% of market value. There is no need to own them except the ones that take money in and lend it out at a reasonable margin. What banks do, the actions they take, they are all stupid and living in cuckoo land. JPM model is simple...they are the new SQUID. They take in $100bn (say), lend out $50bn (bull shi**ing) that they cannot find other borrowers, and with the other $50bn speculate and prop their pants off. What did they learn from LTCM, what did they learn from subprime, what have they learned about new REGS, ZERO ZERO ZERO, because they are simply doing what most Americans want to do, sit on their fat ass and rip you a new one, while stealing your DOLLARS. It would be ok if they said thanks but they ALL think they deserve it. The "chick" running JPM CIO most likely thought she was a genius. Great. 100% useless idiot. All these banking issues are clouding the much larger big picture. The US is BOOMING, once you step away from the THIEVES of WALL STREET.

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