Silver Ready To Breakout - Technicals And Fundamentals Suggest $50/oz In Early Autumn

Tyler Durden's picture




 
0
Your rating: None
 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Wed, 08/31/2011 - 07:20 | 1618253 DefiantSurf
DefiantSurf's picture

I enjoy fondling my silver & gold whilst reading ZH articles like this

 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 18:10 | 1620795 bankruptcylawyer
bankruptcylawyer's picture

thats not all you enjoy fondling. 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 07:20 | 1618254 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

shhhh bitchez!...I'm still buying. Don't spoil it.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 07:26 | 1618263 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I feel your pain....

 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 07:23 | 1618257 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

Not sure about this. In this liquidity trap/ debasement environment the only assets I see really flying up are gold (going to $2500) and treasuries (going to 0). Silver's image as an industrial metal won't help it in the way gold's role as money will. I see silver to $50 by the end of the year. Doubt it will test any higher though, especially not if Europe blows up.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 07:28 | 1618267 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Don't buy any.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 07:36 | 1618277 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

I already bought mine at <$10 and <$20. Silver is going to blow up eventually, but only when the hyperinflation hits. You don't get that just from printing. You need an oil/oil infrastructure/geopolitical shock to trigger that. 

http://azizonomics.com/2011/08/15/why-qe-didnt-cause-hyperinflation-2/ 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:21 | 1618342 Gordon Freeman
Gordon Freeman's picture

I am no silver bug, but there is absolutely no technical or fundamental reason that "silver is going to blow up"--ever.  That's like saying food is going to blow up

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:00 | 1618454 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You're right, you aren't a silver bug.

You are also wholly ignorant of the supply/demand fundamentals of the silver market which dictate a major rise in price, which can either be orderly if the markets are allowed to operate properly, or highly disorderly in the form of a blow off top if price suppression efforts continue until they can't.  Those are the only two options, short of construction of a space mining fleet to flood the market with silver from the asteroid belt.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:39 | 1618747 mrgneiss
mrgneiss's picture

Anyone who understands economic supply/demand fundamentals, dynamics, would never compare the economic good "silver" to the economic good "food".  It is like comparing the economic fundamentals of oil and coke (the drinkable one).  For example, on the supply side, it takes on average seven years from geophysical prospecting to mine production for a silver deposit, and the timeline is increasing due to environmental regulations.  Whereas in many countries that produce rice, the farmer can harvest three crops a year.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:12 | 1618920 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

BTW, the asteroid belt mining thing . . .

 

that's in the works.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:33 | 1618999 Libertarians fo...
Libertarians for Prosperity's picture

 

 

Cliff

Can you please tell me when "the supply/demand fundamentals of the silver market" began to "dictate a major rise in the price?"  When did this occur and why?  You might want to be careful in your answer, because I, too, am not a silver bug and that works to my advantage.   

Warm regards...  

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 19:33 | 1620834 Libertarians fo...
Libertarians for Prosperity's picture

 

 

....and crickets, as usual.   

Just more hollow rhetoric full of drama and devoid of substance from the leader of the silver lemmings.  Only the empty headed silver goons who make comments like "silver will default" (see comment below) believe your melodramatic garbage, cliff. 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:59 | 1618622 fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

I know nothing about the subject at hand, but I will still speak in absolutes regarding the technicals and fundamentals.  I am a moron.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:49 | 1618809 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

+$130.

He probably thinks gold's more rare than silver, too.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:13 | 1618926 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

And diamonds . . .

 

the rarest of them all. /sarc

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:41 | 1619046 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

and, don't forget loose chicks

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:26 | 1618353 cossack55
cossack55's picture

So......you do not see all that coming?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:49 | 1618594 passwordis
passwordis's picture

   Say what? Silver's image won't help it?   $4 to $50 in 9 years....  What more do you want? Why would silver's "image" suddenly hurt it now?

 Look at it this way, You can go to the wayback machine and pull up 10 year old arguments against the rise in the silver price. The bears said the same thing back then as they do today.   That silver is going nowhere or if it does, it's a bubble..

 You can also read what people like Bob Chapman, Jim Sinclair and James Turk said 10 years ago.  Based on hindsight you can decide who was correct..  Then listen to what these same people are saying today.

 I have no reason not to continue to trust those same people who told me to buy PMs ten years ago.  They said it was goign to rise, It has by a factor of 10..  Today, they say it's going to rise much higher because the fundamentals haven't changed.

  10 years after I bought my first gold coin, I no longer need to be guided by the experts. I have a good understanding of PM fundamentals.  My litmus test is as follows,  If you think the Government is goign to do the right thing... don't buy PMs.  If you think the government is going to continue to do the opposite of the right thing.. buy Silver and gold.

 

 That's what it really comes down to.

 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 14:57 | 1619887 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

The difference is that the rise from $4 to $50 took place within the context of a manufacturing and weapons boom. Most of the silver used during this period has been in manufacturing. A full-on depression may change that. Now I'm not saying silver will drop, because it is exceedingly scarce, and it is (debatably) part of the true monetary base. But a depression does remove a lot of upward pressure, which is what leads me to my thesis that we're looking in the next six months at mild to moderate upside. Look at what happened to oil after Lehman: all the peak oilers said it could only continue to climb, and they were wrong. 

Thu, 09/08/2011 - 11:23 | 1646290 passwordis
passwordis's picture

  Industry consumes only about 30% of the silver supply although, that percentage is rapidly growing with new applications and technologies. I attribute the rise in price over the past ten years to small investment/hedge demand. My local PM dealer tells me each year he sells more silver than the last. 

 At any rate, the trend is securely in place..  What happens over the next 6 months does'nt much matter to me. If you want to trade back and fourth, more power to you. I"m not a trader.

  Hindsight is 20/20 and in 5 years we will see where silver is and have a debate over what brought it there.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 07:24 | 1618258 achmachat
achmachat's picture

I honestly also want to hear the reason why it could be a good idea to short silver right now.

I am sure there's a bunch of you reading this, and it would be quite educational to hear both sides.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 07:25 | 1618262 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Merkel just agreed to fund the european emergency fund.

If her party isn't canned next month, the euro will lose about 15% in the short run.

And America.... do I really need to explain that one?

 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 07:46 | 1618293 DosZap
DosZap's picture

SD, Told Ya.................knew she would CAVE,her butts gone.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:00 | 1618313 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

You where right. I didn't think she'd do it. It's German suicide.

But there's still a chance that next month when her party meets that they'll kick the plan again. And that has already happend 2 times this year.

 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:57 | 1618443 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

It was a foregone conclusion the instant she received her award from Obummer.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:57 | 1618617 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Sept 7th the German high court to decide if German participation in bail outs is constitutional...

Probably a rubber stamp, but not a done deal.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:52 | 1618419 gwar5
gwar5's picture

I was surprised to see Germany do that, but I suppose they have their orders from the cartel.  The EU members will be calling the Germans Nazis again when the new conditions are pushed and the Italians and Greeks continue to skirt them.

 

 

 

 

 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 09:52 | 1618603 passwordis
passwordis's picture

The only reason I could come up with is that the people shorting gold and silver understand the manipulation and are trying to take advantage of the periodic smack-downs.  Heck the short positions are probably held (by proxy) by the same people smacking the price down.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 17:59 | 1620764 GoatETF
GoatETF's picture

Heck the short positions are probably held (by proxy) by the same people smacking the price down.

Spent some time on GATA and you can derive a more informed opinion on that one.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 13:40 | 1619483 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

There honestly isn't any good idea involved in shorting silver "right now". Although market performance is always only a probability; the odds are not in your favor.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 07:24 | 1618259 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

NOOOOO!!! JUST A FEW MORE MONTHS BELOW 44$!!!!

AFTER NEWYEAR!!!!

 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 07:32 | 1618272 achmachat
achmachat's picture

you know very well that with what is happening around the world, the currencies won't be able to stay stable that long.

ever thought of borrowing now the amount of money you'll be getting at the end of the year to buy that silver now?  

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 08:55 | 1618431 Clay Hill
Clay Hill's picture

Already done. But only as much as I can afford to lose.

Or, stated differently, I curtailed my regularly scheduled gambling in exchange for physical now. My monthly expenditures actually went DOWN, and the shiny is already in my hand.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:17 | 1618701 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

borrowing for silver isn't what I really want. 

Buy when I have it. I hate takeing a loan.

 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 10:55 | 1618836 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

But your loan will be in paper, not silver. You won't owe "anything" after a certain amount of time passes.

Think of it as leverage.

Borrow 10K and make $100/month payments @ whatever interest they charge you, even if it's 30%, you'll beat that with the gains from silver in the long run.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:13 | 1618925 ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

That is so 2005 home flipping talk

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 14:54 | 1619869 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

If you're saying there is a parallel between real estate and precious metals, you should stay out of both markets.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 13:45 | 1619498 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

The way this is actually done is called "margin"; but it's not for people who are on un-evolved that believe a coin collection is a retirement account; if you recover from the internet brainswashing enough to realize that there are several honest and reliable agencies that sell custodial receipts for silver, then you'll be able to finance silver on something closer to 4.5%/year. If you can't outgrow the blog wisdom, then you're just stuck with whatever you can buy and hide, I suppose.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 07:28 | 1618266 BorisSDT
BorisSDT's picture

We agree that silver is about to breakout and have developed a theory on what's going on with silver.  It may be a little tin foil hattish but it makes more sense than any ohter theories we've heard... at least that's what we think.  http://www.singledudetravel.com/2011/08/silver-and-the-single-dude/

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 07:28 | 1618269 HITMAN56
HITMAN56's picture

Well its almost FB season...so early Autumn is upon us. Hi Ho Silver!

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 13:02 | 1619307 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

Hey Hitman, how's the weather in Langley today?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 07:29 | 1618271 Thunder_Downunder
Thunder_Downunder's picture

mmmm recycled. Can I have my 2 minutes back, I thought this was an analysis piece.

 

Nothing new here, please move along. 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 07:51 | 1618274 thunderchief
thunderchief's picture

Silver in the 30's and 40's will be similar to when it was in the teens.  Long gone and not coming back. 

The big ticket issue going up to 50 are JPM and HSBC, which have massive un backed silver short positions, and will throw loads of cash to pummel the price.  This in collusion with the cftc, (5 margin hikes along with a major take down during afterhours trading in Late April) makes Silver out of kilter with any fundamentals. 

Everytime the banks pull their paper bids on off peak hours, and knock the spot price down, it creates physical buying, and a further shortage of Available silver.  Just look at Comex available silver.  One hedge fund could clean them out in a day.  This will lead to a default at some point.  The paper game works as long as cash settlements occur and no default.  This is a game of chicken the big banks are playing everytime the go after the spot price. 

So keep buying the physical and back it up with some good silver mining stocks. 

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 11:00 | 1618867 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Agree with you entirely.

I read an article by a hedge fund manager basically explaining that, right now, the Fed is playing an extremely dangerous game. He's basically saying they're to blame for the coming collapse (duh) but for different reasons than we'd use. He's coming from the angle that there's only so much physical silver left, a few billion dollars maybe? He could allocate 5% of his fund into physical silver to diversify against inflation and immediatey bring down the COMEX which would cause a run on the banks, etc.

He blamed monetary policy for crashes/collapses and he explained it equally. If you force the large chunks of money to move so they can stay net positive over inflation and other factors then you're to be blamed.

Bernanke's putting the funds in a corner and pretty soon they'll know there's no longer a safe haven outside of gold and silver. Some of these guys are dumb, but they're not all dumb and all it takes is 1 or 2 to get their position first and that will begin the collapse. I think this time around it's going to be fueled by hedge funds first, then all the other falderall later.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 18:09 | 1620794 GoatETF
GoatETF's picture

Was that read here on ZH? If not link plz.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 07:38 | 1618281 sudzee
sudzee's picture

33% think gold is the best investment?

Yesterdays poll.

23 people entered the shop.

23 people sold gold and silver to me.

Bullion leaving the shop-0

9 phone enquires:

8 - how much do you pay.

1- do you have any silver for 5 bucks.

Who did Gallup poll?

Chinese and Indians?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 07:44 | 1618290 MonkeySmoke
MonkeySmoke's picture

The 32 people that you spoke with yesterday will regret that decision in very short order.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 07:57 | 1618311 DosZap
DosZap's picture

sudzee,

That was the Bernanke Bubble Poll.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!