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Silver Rips, Oil Slips, Equity Dips

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Equities had their now-ubiquitous schizophrenia over 'bad-is-good'-macro data, BTFD - VWAP magic, and back-to-work-after-labor-day (volume better) but ended the day fractionally lower. Average trade size was low but volume was a little above average for the last few weeks as the chase to VWAP and then to green in S&P 500 e-mini futures (ES) saw some notable blocks go through - which was accompanied by (or aided by) AAPL's stunning revelation that there will be an iPhone5 </sarc> driving it up 1.5% to fill last week's gap. Away from the equity silliness, there was a clear theme of USD strength (as AUD weakness led but EUR weakness from the European open dragged DXY into the green from Friday by today's close). Treasuries leaked 2-3bps higher in yield on the day. However, while Oil prices dropped (down 1% now from Friday's close), Silver and Gold bucked the stronger USD trend and pushed higher (with the former up 2% on the week and Gold testing up towards $1700). VIX jumped 0.85 vols back above 18% (highest close in a month) almost reaching 19% intraday. Risk assets generally synced well with stocks into the European close, then stocks lagged, overshot (supposedly on Gross' comments but we doubt that) and then reverted back down. Two words - palpable anxiety.

S&P 500 e-mini futures (ES) had quite an interesting day - auctioning down, fulfilling, auctioning up, fulfilling, and then retracing back to VWAP...

 

Not exactly a full risk-on day given the underperformance of Materials, Energy, and Industrials (and outperformance of Staples, Healthcare and Utilities)...

 

In the interests of completeness (since a comment clearly indicated a lack of completeness), we add the Russell 2000 to the intraday index performance - and it is #winning - interesting day for that index indeed...

 

Commodities showed an interesting divergence - especially in light of modest USD strengthening...

 

Risk assets had a more stable day than equities - in sync early and overnight, outperforming post-European close, then providing some sense of reality that stocks reverted to into the close...

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

Bonus Chart: AAPL - Gap-Fill and VWAP-bound...

 

Bonus Bonus Chart: Inflation Breakevens DISagreeing with stocks suddenly...


 

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Tue, 09/04/2012 - 16:19 | 2761655 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

And ECB buying just the spanish tip ;)

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 16:44 | 2761781 dlmaniac
dlmaniac's picture

Is silver pulling another 2010 show off? hmmm

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 16:21 | 2761669 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48896202    and i kid you not. Moron vision actually has a headline that "investors are buying more stocks."   someone get these criminal fuckers off the air!

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 16:27 | 2761703 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

PLEEZE, insert Russell 2000 into these end-of-day analyses, otherwise it is incomplete.  

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 16:29 | 2761716 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

For sale:  derivitave deeds for oceanfront property in Nevada.  Stipulation: rath of God must visit first.

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 16:29 | 2761717 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

the vxx is a piece of shit.

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 19:07 | 2762376 AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

Totally agree.

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 16:30 | 2761722 fuu
fuu's picture

Silver bitches!

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 16:48 | 2761797 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Next sTOP... $70

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 16:51 | 2761806 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

But but its a risk asset, muwahwuwahamuwahhhhhhhh

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 17:01 | 2761826 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Simple maneuver...

$50 (double top price) X 1.618 golden ratio = $80.90...

If the PAPER fucknuts are still in charge, that's where it'll go... but the final ticks will happen in a way that PHYSICAL HOLDERS can't monetize the last $10 of the spot paper price... Unless you're trading PAPER... & if so... You're an idiot...

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 17:07 | 2761859 OneTinSoldier66
OneTinSoldier66's picture

Yeah, but to whom is it a risk!? :)

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 17:20 | 2761920 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

don't want risk?... Just exchange for nickles... BITCHEZ...

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 16:58 | 2761825 AllThatGlitters
AllThatGlitters's picture

Let's get to 40 first.

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 18:38 | 2762228 JohnKozac
JohnKozac's picture

$200 is what John Williams over at Shadow Stats predicts.

Makes sense.

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 16:35 | 2761742 Buzzworthy
Buzzworthy's picture

Silver being forced up more by huge physical demand and excellent fundamentals than by talk of QE.  Investment of the decade!

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 16:53 | 2761812 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

Century

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 17:27 | 2761939 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Not bad last decade either.

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 20:53 | 2762802 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Watch what happens when Miners the world over go on strike. TPTB can no longer prevent news coverage.

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 16:54 | 2761758 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Bill Gross sends his "reflationary" B.S. twit, and at the same time Neel Kashkari sells PIMCO equity holdings (because Draghi will not write a single "check" to peripherals until the peripherals admit they are broke and agree to IMF monitoring and austerity).

Hmm...

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 18:09 | 2761824 bdc63
bdc63's picture

yeah, Neel calls that the "Muppet Move" ... he perfected that play back in the day when he was still doing 'God's Work' at the Vampire Squid ...

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 18:41 | 2762246 LeisureSmith
LeisureSmith's picture

The Kashkari Eel or The Neel is a sinister looking creature, a predatory deep sea organism observed living in symbiosis with the Vampire Squid (Vampyroteuthis infernalis) doing it's bidding and providing it with sustenance. Known to be toxic and very slippery. Avoid if possible.

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 16:47 | 2761794 AllThatGlitters
AllThatGlitters's picture

Silver is going to keep ripping.

For longer than most would think possible too.  

Look at the breakout on the weekly: 

http://www.pmbull.com/silver-price/weekly/

 

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 17:02 | 2761842 bdc63
bdc63's picture

that chart sure looks promising ... somebody at JP Morgan must have called in sick today 'cause that shoulda never been allowed to happen ...

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 17:07 | 2761862 AllThatGlitters
AllThatGlitters's picture

Then again, the concern for new silver longs jumping on that breakout should be that it was allowed to happen for a reason.

"Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice... uhh..  you can't get fooled again!"

 - My favorite Bushism

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 17:10 | 2761869 Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture

I don't believe at this point JPM can control it. I don't believe unemployment is 8%, I don't believe in Santa Claus and I don't believe there are 100 million plus ounces of silver in the COMEX vaults.

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 17:28 | 2761946 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Squeal like a pig, Blythe.

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 17:14 | 2761892 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

like it sinbad

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 16:58 | 2761827 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Should the ECB go down the ultimate road called Moral Hazard, expect gold to soar. But, I think everyone just might abandon equities for good this time. Why would you want to own FB when gold or even GLD seem to be more rational.

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 17:11 | 2761871 q99x2
q99x2's picture

There blows the whales silver shorts. Goodbye Jamie Dimon.

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 17:27 | 2761940 The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

Bloomberg TV was plugging silver around 1pm, talking like metals experts in referencing the shrinking GSR and all...  /sarc

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 18:11 | 2762085 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I meant to reply to you; see my post below about Doomberg.

*edit - I will henceforth call them Doomborg

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 17:28 | 2761944 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

Blythe must be going through menopause

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 17:42 | 2762007 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

poetic

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 17:55 | 2762062 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Stack it bitches.

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 18:00 | 2762079 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I shit you not this is what the Blombrg anti-gold propaganda machine is putting out:

This Is What Going to the Gold Standard Looks Like

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/this-is-what-going-to-the-gold-standard-l...

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 18:56 | 2762319 WAMO556
WAMO556's picture

"Your money backs my Gold"..... That's what the chick said. Methinks that she got it wrong.... Backasswards wrong.... But what do I know. Gold (silver and lead, in round form, of course) are for us barbarians.

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 18:00 | 2762081 youngman
youngman's picture

Everytime we go though one of these fear cycles....more and more people go to PM´s instead of Bonds.....IMHO...right now everyone is waiting on 4 countries to unleach the printing presses...to print more money...that is their hope of survival...print...USA, Japan, China, And the EU...just waiting for the print

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 19:17 | 2762416 AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

Bernanke's plan to reflate the system with QE1 and QE2 didn't work.  His plan to drive everyone into equities for any kind of return is sort of working, but he also drove up commodity prices that killed any hope of recovery.  His plan to outlast value buyers of illiquid assets is clearly not working.  He's in so deep now, he's gotta print more moola despite the fact that the monetary base increased 29% last year alone (according to S&P).  I'm starting to believe in some worst case exit scenarios.

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 19:20 | 2762431 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

damn. i bought a lot more silver fizz today, but left the tailgate down on the truck.

rats.

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 21:30 | 2762813 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

slewie watches the R2K;  but i would never suggest tyler could improve in any way!  at least not on these dailies.  sill, they keep getting gooder; or is that me?  L0L

why is the R2K worth watching? i like it b/c it is "fat" and has lotsa stocks in it;  b/c most indices are "weighted" (look @ the naz & appl) they can be "moved" by daBoyz by hammering or goosing a few stocks in unison with yer money, the R2K is not a sandbox in which one can easily play such a game;  it also has a reputation for being "mid-cap", but with today's "values" today's mid is yesterday's DOW30

as this chart shows, it is sometimes "different";  it is also sometimes "less" and that would be %-wise

many days of the risk0n/0ff (remember tyler's "buy straddles" call?) sewing-machine (straddles are rarely a good buy imo, but tyler freaking nailed it!) i would see the R2K be un-confirmational;  on the "fakes";  but i'm watching the index right along, not just charting the close

here, today, with the R2K un-con, i would not consider the "odds" to go risk0ff tomorrow quite as high, for example;   even taking tyler's cue thatt appl turned the naz green

financial "engineers" know how to move indices;  the s&p500 i don't like b/c of all the "bells and whistles" and the tail-wag-dog possiblilities;  i just can't understand it;  how it "works";  others go WTF(?) too;  maybe everything works that way now;  gold and silver were just the hors d'oeuvres and salad from what i think i'm seeing for a while now

this is the first US day of the quarter, so there was a little in&outBurger in some of the indices--the stocks in them change a bit here & there

tyler may have published the info already; i'm not even done w/ the front page yet; sometimes looking at the burger menu and asking dumb questions about the changes can close a synapse here & there, also; or open one

the R2K also has bells and whistles; the  futures are trading, right now

Russell 2000     821.2498             -0.9000

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 23:28 | 2763196 plata pura
plata pura's picture

silver and bacteria a love story

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