Six Tail Scenarios That Deutsche Bank Are Watching For Next Year

Tyler Durden's picture

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slewie the pi-rat's picture

tales of the tails, BiCheZ!

will the brakes on debt accumulation break?

GiantVampireSquid vs OWS UFC 2012's picture

Reserve Banks Buying equities, and dropping money from helicopters, can't wait to get my face burnt by those headlines.

RafterManFMJ's picture



Q: What's up?

A: A chicken's ass, when it eats.

navy62802's picture

Where's the tail up the ass scenario?? Because the lord knows taxpayers are going to get that seventh scenario not mentioned in the article.

slewie the pi-rat's picture

that particular scenario has been  keestered

jeff montanye's picture

it was, after all, the dodd-frank bill.  he is an utter (udder?) whore.

I am a Man I am Forty's picture

OT:  MF GLobal's COO, Bradley Abelow (former squid), was formerly on the board of directors of the DTCC, along with Peter Madoff, can't make this stuff up.

moskov's picture



UK/US/JAPAN are safe havens?


Safe my ass, they are just the ultimate time bombs going to explode into dust very soon.

jeff montanye's picture

how soon is very?  the post notes they face epic funding problems.  

wandstrasse's picture

joint statement by the bankers of the world: To prevent the planet from cruel self-destruction and return to barbaric relics, we urgently recommend to install a world dictatorship, driven by bankers. The world will then go on to grow to infinity, the elite will get just rewards for its super-human endeavours and nobody is required to face the truth. Deal?

willien1derland's picture

I am particularly fond of the ideal that all of the toxic debt that exists can only be supported by government driven contrieved currency creation of equal (NO) value!

The only way to save the financial system of the WORLD is to continue to offset the bad & fraudulent actions of the private financial sector past lawlessness with continued bad & fraudulent actions supported by the Central Banks of the world - because OBVIOUSLY the only way to pay for a worthless bond is with WORTHLESS CURRENCY!

Tragic Irony? Poetic Justice? It's your call Folks - Somehow I am reminded of the past cliche' that two wrongs don't make it right...


Teamtc321's picture

No, so fuck off. Let the shit rain as you have planned bitchezzzzz. Call the ball wizard fuck. 

zorba THE GREEK's picture

The article seems to suggest things will hold together in 2012, but I get the distinct

feeling of a crisis coming before the year end. Just the fact that the Fed, the BOE, and the

BIS found it necessary to sell gold thursday when it started to rise rapidly from 1740 to

1765, smacks of desperation. The markets are only supported by confidence at the present,

and a confidence crises can spiral out of control faster than most investors can react to it.

The MFG failure has exposed weaknesses in the financial institutes which were unknown

to exist to the vast majority of investors. Uncertainty about the safety of assets and investments

is rapidly on the rise. The next negative incident could be the one which pushes confidence off

the cliff and triggers a run on banks and investment houses.

jeff montanye's picture

the deutsche boys did note that the last u.s. election year produced an s&p 500 return of -37%.  when the money really does switch from bonds and stocks to gold and silver ....

chump666's picture

Right, right...

Look the big one is China and only China, forget Europe they are gone.  US is a fiscal writeoff...But China smokes them all.   Major slowdown in China via commodities crashing, yet oil is still bid over 90.  Remember China is a net importer. Nice.  Lock in major geo-political event or skirmish and it's highly likely between China and India outside Vietnamese waters.  It's all about energy baby.

JohnG's picture



Oh just fuck it. 

I'll plant my gardens, feed my chickens and hogs....

Take my physical (BitcheZ).

Bug out to my house in the boonies and just live for the joy of what life I have left.


Make the best of what you can, and relax.  Don't allow this assorted crap to consume you; it just is not worth it.


Regards to all,






Danielius's picture

I'm already there.  Well, not at your place. A remote house in a remote corner of Europe with plenty o' farmland.  Heat the house with wood, electric bills about 20 bucks a month. Health insurance about 28 dollars a month.  A half liter can of Carlsberg is just over a buck. Got physical.

monclershop's picture

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jeff montanye's picture

interesting choice of alphabet for a french/italian company's products hawked on an english language website.

CrashisOptimistic's picture

And once again, ZERO emphasis on oil, which is all that matters.

They are all living in a dream world.

chump666's picture

Deutsche bank are idoits.  Citi been on the money for awhile, very doomy reports.  Good stuff.  A recaped bank sounding the doomsday bell. As for  European banks, they are living in a DREAM world.  They need to be purged.  See the DAX last session hahahahaha.

The way risk FX (right now) is selling into the Euro open.  Gonna be the same.

jeff montanye's picture

recaped idoits.  do they regain some super hero mystique? 

Caviar Emptor's picture

The mood is souring. 08 was a wake up call. 09-10 was a reminder. 11 is now confirmation that things are not in a healthy state and we can't go home again. Not without a lot of either thoughtful or thoughtless change and re-structuring. Status quo is a no go

zhandax's picture

That's the reason this shit takes so long; to give us the opportunity to make it thoughtful.  Thoughtless runs on auto-pilot and the fuse is lit.

BeatTheMarket's picture

what about USA-Iran war?

CrashisOptimistic's picture

Iran is way post peak.  They pumped 6 million bpd about 40 years ago.  They are down to pumping 4 million bpd now, but the REAL kicker is they consumed only 400K bpd 40 years ago and now it's almost 2 mbpd.

Meaning, they can only export 2 mbpd of that 4 they pump.  400K goes to Greece (no one else will front them short term credit to buy oil) and 1.6 mbpd goes to China.

You hit Iran, you are attacking China's supply.  There is no other source of 1.6 mbpd for them to access.  They won't ignore that.

Iran is not going to be attacked.

Peter K's picture

The biggest tail that DB should be watching is the DEM leaving the Eurozone. :)

Peter K's picture

One interesting observation about the graph of the Euroland speads to Germany.

I remember the convergence trade of the Eurozone debt in 1998 very well. Italian rates rallied by 400bp within the span of 3 weeks. The joke at the time was that within 2 or 3 weeks, the Italians became Germans. And then all the Eurolanders became Germans.

This graph shows exactly why Euroland is the mess that it is. Because the Eurolanders ARE NOT Germans.

So what we actually have is the convergence unwind. Mr. Market will take the respective country interest rates back to where they should be plus 12 years of profligacy.

But the money question is, who will pick up the tab for the Franco/German experiment? 

falak pema's picture

if italy and spain default all bets are off world wide; so Merkel is in the hot seat and will stay there all through 2012. Market Mayhem should kill the GER/FR front. Unless the shadow bank unwind unsettles City beyond red line. 2012 is now as hot as the St Andreas fault was in 1906 and el Nino in 1999.