Size Seller Of Futures Sends Spot Gold To New All Time High Of $1725
As Asia opens, with both the Nikkei and the Kospi printing well below 4%, a number likely to end far lower, we take a quick look at our own futures, where we notice that following a rather substantial dump which saw nearly 400k ES contracts change handles at around 6:10pm bringing the stack 10 handles lower, ES is now just barely above 1100, or 1105 to be specific at last check. The major positional offload also sent gold surging by over $7 and the shiny metal has just hit another record high in the $1723 ballpark. The overnight session should be relatively quiet aside from a Chinese CPI print which is expected to come at 6.4% but which will be goalseeked to indicate that the economy is slowing down, a move which will probably be attributed to the ongoing "revaluation" of the Yuan, which we expect will again be fixed by the PBoC at a new record high price against the USD shortly. We anticipate quite overnight trading until Europe once again opens, at which point Italy will as usual be the focus of numerous halted stocks if not entire markets.
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Poor old silver, can't get a decent hard-on at present. Oh, well, may as well buy some more before the bernank unleashes another load of jew confetti...
and unleash he will...no choice. These past few days are reminiscent of 08 but what's looking "priced in" at this point is that there is no confetti immediately forthcoming.
If the semiprecious metals begin to catch a stiff bid, it would indicate massive monetary inflation imminent.
I think you're wrong about that, with all due respect. The banksters' interests are global including in China and Russia. They will not jeopardize that for QE3.
Agree that QE3 may not happen, at all. Also, I think silver may be properly priced at a 30:1 ratio with gold, but factoring in that industrial demand may fall 50%. This is a theory, ok?
If silver is 30:1 with gold, then its worth about $58 per ounce, but, given that industrial demand is 60% of the demand, if the industrial demand falls 50%, then the natural price for silver is about $40 per ounce.
If the economy turns around, and if gold stays up, silver will go to the Moon. But, the economy is at its own funeral right now, it seems.
Just a theory.
I'm also in the "skeptical about another round of QE" camp. But my reasons are pretty simple.
If gold was trading at $300 lower right now, then maybe Bernanke has the chutzpah to print more fiat out of thin air. But with gold at $1,700+, I just don't think he can print because that would be, ahem, "reckless."
$1742, bitchezzzz!!!!!
I saw a mere $1738, but close enough, bitchez!
I am about to jump into a hole off the grid! Wonder what I am going to see when I reappear?
Damn, looks like I picked a bad time to go off the grid!
Buenas Do Chen.
What has been working lately for those who want to bet on paper overnight is gold calls versus silver puts. For several weeks this has been a winner with no chance of loosing, since gold goes up with no restriction and silver is being supressed to somewhat slow gold's rise. They have lost control of gold manipulation. If the economy goes kaboom, they will also loose control of silver.
or, a good time.
I love me some gold at the glorious price of $1776.
Symbolism, bitchez!
Epic currency FAIL in progress!!!
Bank Run Bitchez!
Here's another theory: "crazed techies buy billions in silver." obviously i don't give a shit being of a more...ascetic bent. MADNESS i tell u! Absolute MADNESS!
ok ,then what happens if there is on QE3 ? the bernank is between a rock and hard place. so where does he go?
Well, isn't that obvious? He goes into retirement, to command huge speaking fees and write books. It's the American way
Once they start inflating the money supply they cannot stop. It is impossible. They can attempt to slow down the devaluation in the eyes of the market but it will eventually happen at an ever-accelerating pace and the more the devaluation accelerates the less they can do to slow it down. History has shown us this time and again.
Either there will be inflation of the dollar or the entire system will collapse. Before the collapse happens people will be clamoring for QE3 (or a similar inflationary move) to extend the time before the unavoidable pain sets in. Inflation will continue to be the policy until it is completely out of control and the gears of commerce slow and finally stop under its numbing influence. This is ALWAYS how a fiat money ends. It is just a matter of timing, and the time is getting short for the dollar.
TPOG
2013 sounds about right. 100 years together. it started in 1913. and it may end in 2013. remember obama said he did not want to fool with any of the budget mess anymore until after the election in nov 2012. then we have that magic number that they love , the number 13....
I think it is incredible that they have made it last as long as they have. But then the reason for that was the abundance of oil, and you know where I think that topic stands now... ;-)
TPOG
the construction of credit-based monetary systems make it a mathematical certainty
More pain is needed before QE3 can be launched. Why? Because the Fed needs the politicians to beg for it. The wild card here is how fast everything is moving. Can the Fed risk flat-lining the patient (I mean victim) at this point? Maybe not. But if they pull the trigger now, it will be the last bullet in the clip. After that, it is Plan B. Plan B of course involves bombing the shit of brown folks for thier oil (I mean WMD's - oops). In short, I suspect something really sleezy tomorrow that will slow the sell-off but not reverse it. European fires should suffice for now to keep scared and confused money sloshing around. If PM's sell off in the short term as a result, it will probably be the last good opportunity to load up.
Everyone in dc went home for a month for vacation after a job well done on the debt ceiling.
If the fed does nothing soon, you'll have another 15-20% drop in stocks by next week across the globe.
I have faith they can kick the can one more time and make my metal shine!
they will keep kicking it down the road, until they are ready to stop kicking it.
"Everyone in dc went home for a month for vacation after a job well done on the debt ceiling."
That is all everyone needs to know.
The centrally planned train is off the tracks as the conductors & engineers make sure the latest public debt installment to their pensions adds up to what Timmah withdrew.
There is no honor among thieves.
I see two major issues that should prevent the launch of QE3 tomorrow:
1- Bond yeild have tumbled in the past two weeks. With interest rates so low, it would be impossible to pretend that QE3 was launched for any reason other than to inflate the markets and devalue the currency.
2- QE3 would cause the Yen to skyrocket and instantly bankrupt Japan.
Speaking of which, why isn't Japan the focus of more attention right now (bond vigalantees and the like)? I mean, the sky-high price of the Yen, and the cost of intervention will lead to a debt to GDP of what, 300% by end of the year at this rate (mass layoffs and recession/depression...)
Anyway, if QE3 is not announced, or if it is announced and the market deems the size to be inadequate, then I think there is big market trouble. If it is announced, and if it is large enough to prevent a market crash, then I think Japan gets b/k'd and Ben is revealed to be naked. Not a pretty outcome!
--Brian
IT IS ECONOMIC_WARFARE and the Nips are the easiest, and thus first, target. America must remain the dominate exporter and economic engine of the world.
Next, Germany and europe is going down.
Last, China shall fall.
America is solidifying control of resources and eliminating competition. WINNINNG!!!!
Wow, now THAT is one hell of a conspiracy!!! America takes down the world! Bitchez!
Some of my best theories come to me after a couple of three Manhattans.
i do enjoy a maker's mark manhattan.
Nip slip.
Shouldn't we say we're sorry or something? I mean how many flag poles are there to "run the cock suckers up on."
back in like '05, I predicted the Rogue Wave financial event was going to be the sovereign BK of Japan based upon these very realizations. I thought '09 and we're a good couple years past that.
There's no way out; everyone needs to devalue because everyone's money is based on debt. The mercantilist exporters need the debt to fluff their own economies too.
I think you should be careful with silver. Gold is the banksters fallback position but silver they do not control and so will fight tooth and nail. Silver will only take off if they lose political power and with the Mossad/Rothscum's Murder Inc running strong, I think it'll take a revolution.
imho
the silver price explosion will herald the free markets' desperate attempt to prevent humanity from destroying itself.
it will enable the revolution > it will take a revolution
there are no free markets, there never were free markets .
Exactly. Lobby matters. To compare the situation with oil: Oil has a strong lobby that is interested in keeping prices up, that is as powerful as US-based parasites like JPM..... as a result, oil WILL in the longterm only go up, though with potential midterm volatility.
Same for gold, there are powerful players relying on it.
Silver? Not so much. Silver may historically be the most undervalued commodity.... doesn't change that at minimum in the midterm, it has less powerful backing than gold or oil.... which makes it more attractive to manipulate recklessly (at least, unless an exchange default happens!).
On the other hand, precisely gold and oil, are the first things to be pricefixed (and possibly trade outlawed), when shit totally hits the fan, precisely because of the lobby backing.
Bottom line: There is no shortterm safety and reliability, sans an all out revolution. Absent of it, you're betting between backing by your enemies, and destruction of them.
The reliable answer may once again be: Longterm diversification.
I get that gold is the fallback position, but what I don't get is why they would fight tooth and nail for silver. Don't discount the possibility that silver is not as manipulated as much as you think. The world is in fallback-mode. The price of gold is driven by real monetary changes. Those changes do not include silver in their plans.
Don't get me wrong... silver definitely has monetary value. Silver's monetary value will definitely come from its use in trade, and I believe it's worth holding on to. But the forces that will bring gold to $10,000+ are massive compared to the monetary demand for silver. The investment of a lifetime is gold. It is the money of nations, while silver will be the money of communities.
Perhaps, the indicator for people thinking that silver is as manipulated as they claim, is that it is not behaving like a typical metal, and is exposed to "unusual" market behaviours which metals like gold are not exposed to *even though both are supposed to be linked*!
Or in short: Looking at the charts of what is going on in PAPER silver, only a fucking idiot would claim that "all is normal". It's not even a matter of suspension of disbelief - it's a matter of outright lying and selfbetrayal (and i really do not give a shit about which of both applies to someone). HOWEVER, that doesn't stop me from acknowledging what is going on - and drawing conclusions on that, rather than what SHOULD be going on (wishful thinking).
I like it. Silver's just sitting there looking pretty while everything else jumps around like water on a greased skillet. That's the kind of calm assurance I'd expect to see from gold.
Silver already had it's correction, and is building a base of support right around $40. Gold still may, or may not, be in line for a sharp correction. It is looking decidedly spiky now, though- kind of like silver just before it corrected hard and spooked people. If the same thing happens with gold, it may give silver it's turn at the throttle back for a while.
The two may be linked, but they don't move in lockstep. Silver seems to front-run gold a little bit, like a preview of what is coming.
Then again, who knows right now. We're about to see if the freegold theory holds any water pretty quick...
there is no way in hell gold can keep moving the way it is right now, and the world as we know it continues on the way it has been.
smells like a pump and dump.
Someone is standing on silver's neck and hard. Serious manupulation going on....though to be honest I appreciate it if they would drop it a bit more before cutting it loose.
I'm not picking on you in particular, but just because you don't understand something, doesn't mean the answer must be riddled with conspiracy and manipulation. The PM goons who drag their knuckles through this forum have, for the most part, no understanding of how the silver and gold markets function.
The doomer silver/gold goons - especially the low hanging fruit at Turd's blog or SGS's blog - who believe everything is a conspiracy remind me of those African villagers in The God's Must be Crazy. When a Coke bottle was thrown from an airplane, the villagers had no explanation for the airplane or the bottle. Having never seen something as mysterious as glass and planes, they are convinced the gods have cursed them. Simple minds revert to gods, devils and spirits to mask their ignorance.
Same with doomer silver goons - just replace the "gods" with "The Cartel," or "Blythe" or the "Plunge Protection Team," or Soros or what-the-fuck-ever. You guys make up conspiracies and fight phantom enemies primarily because you have no idea how the market really works. The Comex is going to implode! Crash JP Morgue, Buy Silver. There is no silver available! SLV and GLD are frauds! Price doesn't matter! $7/oz silver premiums on eBay prove the end is near! Osama has been frozen for 7 years! Etc., etc., etc...
It's all just fucking nonsense, and serves only to mask your ignorance. Just because silver isn't at $500/oz or at a 16:1 ratio to gold, or whatever other goofiness you guys believe, doesn't mean the Cartel gods are conspiring against you.
Just take a visit to Turd's blog. Everyone over there is too busy preparing for the end of the world to realize that Turd advised everyone in June and July not to buy the gold rally that was setting up - that was $300/oz ago! LOL. The doomer goons don't mention it, though - not a conversation about it, anywhere. All they want to hear is the same shit, over and over again - Blythe, JP Morgue, conspiracy, manipulation, blah, blah blah....
actually, all i'd like to see is some semblance of supply and demand.
<waves at Hamy>
The manipulation theory, while a still a theory, has merit (Think Bill Murphy). Turd also said to be careful on buying silver not too long ago as well. We know people aren't psychic and it's ultimately our choice and when I see the inverse graph of the past few hours starting at 8:45 ish, I think that some large player(s) are moving their silver into gold.. but what the fuck do I know.. A near straight down move followed by nearly the same movement in silver as gold.. something happened. That's all I know.. and I leave the speculation to those who know more than me. Other than that.. I've made me some cash from picking through the bullshit and noting the patterns that were pointed out in the past by people like Turd. I really don't know much about the regular things that transpire during the month(s), or quarter(s), but I'm learning. One thing I do think is weird is the complete sideways move silver was making while gold was shooting through the roof. If you care to elaborate on that.. I'm all ears..
Sorry there is a masive difference between GLD/SLV and physical. I don't touch the paper. The separation between the 2 physicals is at a point of almost bizarrness. Something similar to Brent being $200 and WTI being $80. I don't really have a big problem with it since the paper backed by nothing is starting to burn and the undergraound economy is pricing silver higher. But it would be interesting to see the cause of the separation of which you offer zero explanation only to say "trust me there is nothing going on here"....of which I would ask...why?
Lol, your critique of the tactical situation does not really address the circumstances of the strategic situation.
TPOG
A bad print of Chinese numbers with be sure thing the Jew confetti comes tomorrow.
Looks like bad open and Ben will come save the day.
Speculate on the market, hold silver and gold.
Fire sale in Asia right now!
But silver is still lagging. What's up with that?
But...... OMG CNBC is hilarious this evening!! They are even playing the doom and gloom music! I'm sorry I had to work today. It would be worth just sitting at home watching these morons shit their pants!!
silver, oil, platinum, and palladium are signaling serious economic contraction, deflation, and sovereign default looming. So is gold
There's not a supply issue with silver. Silver is only attractive because of a historical relic called the gold:silver ratio. This was before advent of mass copper mining, since the early 1900s, which produces large amounts of silver as a byproduct.
The silver bull run will crash, once gold corrects around 2000, and everyone flees to the safety, and liquidity of cash, when shit gets real
Safety of cash? Don't think so.
Once gold corrects around 2000??
WTF are you talking about?
Safety=cash???? When shit gets real, you'll be shoving dollars in your pellet stove for heat.
LOL someone in a dorm room telling us to stay in cash and not physical PM's... OMGWTFBBQ!!! HERP DERP.
do tell what the current supply and demand paradigm is for silver.
"gold corrects around 2000"
You mean dollars or 8:00 pm?
- 1 for reality.
+ 1 for project mayhem compliance.
What the hell is " project mayhem" again?
You have to go out and pick a fight with a central banker.
If you've seen the ones that I have, shame on you if you don't kick their ass handily.
When done, please staple an index card reading "This is what The Bernank's madness has led society to' on his head.
That assumes the Fed will give up or be displaced, allowing massive deflation to occur, strengthening the USD significantly. That pretty much goes against every action taken by every modern bank. Could it happen? Well, one can't rule it out. But the odds are not favoring that outcome at all.
if they do, then BAC, C, DB, and a bunch of others go tits up.
The massive deflationary blackholes that used to be MER, CFC, BSC, etc., are still out there; they were just concealed in larger banks. They are chewing their way to the light from the inside out.
Sounds Melloncholy. Now shake your boots and let it all hang out.
What happened to the "junk" button!?
Poor try troll ...the shit is real and if you believe any of your bull it will be all over your ignorant face.
Johnny? I thought you wuz dead. Welcome back Bravo dude! Still at school? Bummer!
oh ok. whatever you say pal.
Silver doubled in a year. A lot of people got burned when they bought at $48. It's an industrial metal, so it tends to go up/down with equities half of the time. If gold had doubled in a year, I'd be worried about too many people buying on margin (and, hence, downturn potential). Remember, a lot of buyers buy on thin margin in futures, and just like a money contraction during a downturn, you can have a lot of people exiting on margin calls, even though fundamentally silver will go up in the long turn.
When you look at the very light volume on thin markets of that final spike in silver from, say $44 up, and the COT at the time, it is pretty clear that most of that buying was shorts getting out of the way. I also think some of the bigger shorts played it smart and spiked the price to trigger that 30yr double-top technical reaction...lol.
Silver's performance this time around is magnificent...strong hands, but I am waiting for the FOMC and COT Tuesday before I form a view on whether a bottom is in....and the "volatility" in gold and no CME margin hikes...go HKMEx and Pan-Asia! Competition, or the threat of it, works! We'll see soon enough.
yeh its just industrial metal. keep telling yourself that pal. all of the stuff you are talking about is paper silver. there is a big difference between paper and physical.
they are losing control. without some pixy dust we will see $2500 and $75 by Christmas.
it will be Christmas time for some and a sad time for others. the death of a nation is a terrible thing to watch.
Yes, but the eventual re-building should be a blast!
TPOG
yeah, countries that are in economic collapse produce nice edgy music and bitchez without jobs are way less Prince Charming fantasy picky.
+1 regarding the prince charming fantasy shit.. high maint women are a drag..
See, there is a silver lining to every rain cloud!
TPOG
there will be no rebuilding. take a long look around you. what you see now, one day soon perhaps, you will never see again.
There will be in my town, even if I have to do it myself with a hammer in one hand and a gun in the other.
Blow up some dams so the salmon run again and let weeds and trees take over the roads and that sounds like a great canvas for re-building to me! Of course, there are likely to be fewer people...
TPOG
1727+ right now.
1729 now!
whoops!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClnSMCdw6E8
bye bye fake fucking shit cock banksterS!!!!!!!!
1748!
over 1760 now!!!
Can you say "shortside capitulation"? Phone company is going to make a bundle on all the margin calls...
Silver doing dick for well over a month now. Hovering forever at $39 and change.
patience grasshopper
Silver getting dicked because that´s the cartel´s most vulnerable point, giving us one of our last buying opportunities below 40. Take it.
That's good. It's not only a chance to buy, but it's establishing a strong support base. When it starts to run, no one is going to get dizzy when it punches through $50, because it doesn't seem like such a large jump.
Pixy dust future show $3800/oz by Christmas, so that's not going to happen.
Gold. It's all that glitters.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=IF24atvNkSo
Watch this for the next stop...............be advised the interview w/ the MAN.
$1,784.00, and MoonShot.