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SKEWered
While stocks are surging in nominal terms, the options markets are increasingly pricing in greater and greater downside risk concerns. Currently, we are at record levels for this so-called Skew (meaning the price of downside protection outweighs the cost of upside protection by the most ever). Trade accordingly.
and if you are looking for 'cheap' hedges, here is Goldman's ranking of global across asset class hedge relative costs:
Chart: Bloomberg
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downside? I read a book about that - I guess in the old days the stock market actually used to go down.. thank god we fixed that!
I remember from economics something called a business cycle too where there were actually periods of contraction and expansion. Can you imagine, contraction? I'm sure in economics now when talking about periods of contraction, the books just say "print more money."
That thing called "contraction" is happening. Back in the day a spade was a spade. Now it is propaganda. That unemployment check is really payment for unemployment work not obviously seen.
So this is VERY Bullish,
For FAZ?
+1
Hahaha Gubbmint I love your nostalgia. Ahhh yes the good old days. Well I'm afraid the "D-Word" just isn't allowed anymore now that our dear leaders have outlawed gravity and made anyone who questions their incompetence, and I quote "a (financial) terrorist".
My fingers are severly burnt now from attempting to short this absurd market and now I'm wary. Very, very wary about trying to short again.
along same lines as article above: TVIX is not issuing new shares.
Yeah, it's been almost a month or so. But there's still UVXY, which BTW gained in volume after CS announced TVIX stopped issuing new shares...
TVIX rips.. that's unfortunate
Can't happened because know one knows where the bottom is. This has been pumped up artificially for so long that it would be akin to an avalanche.
Yes, the man who saved the world economy fixed it all.
He did it for all of us.
Go Long. Stay Long. 20+% returns for ever.
Bear stearns
Lehman
MF Global
Who's next? - Meryll Lynch?
If only they were still around, what you meant was BAC and no, it won't be them.
Well, it can't be Cantor Fitz. It can't be the non american PDs.
Jefferies or Merryll Lynch. These are the weakest.
On Fed's website, Bank of America is not mentioned, just Merryll Lynch etc.
My money is still on HSBC...Well, technically its shorting the SPX but my money would be on HSBC if a 10% drop = $14,000 of gain.
I wish you good luck, but I don't think the Fed could force the non USA based PDs to buy up the NYSE. However, you never know.
ML, nah...
Citigroup, Regions Financial, and Sun Trust---a nice trifecta of doom.
Only Citigroup is a primary dealer.
Are you saying C is next?
C is a disaster.
Why not ML? I don't know whether they are allowed to buy BAC, but who is freaking buying a worthless BAC? (Wow price just collapsed right now...wowo wowo wowo).
I think ML is buying BAC and getting stuffed and stuck with it.
What am I missing...
As of 2011 HSBC was the world's second-largest banking and financial services group and second-largest public company according to a composite measure by Forbes magazine.
Sounds like a big enough target with plenty of exposure to Europe, China, US, and 100 million customers.
Dare I say there might be a counter party risk in there somewhere?
up we go.. cant stop this manipulated addict hooker from getting her "highs"..
Don't worry any downtick will be trampled on by any QE3 rumour, no thta you have no fear BUY BUY BUY!!!
There's a lot of leverage in this market trying to suck in retail. Somebody is going to get a margin call soon. My bet is they will have strong position in Apple.
Retail is jobless, broke and homeless. That is not exactly the ideal conditions for stock investing.
I would also add that their liabilities exceed their assets do to ultra low house prices.
The bears refuse to step up to the plate having had their faces ripped off repeatedly. I don't blame them one bit. You just can't short this market. No one is willing to sell.
This statement may be true. However, what is clearly true is that no one is willing to buy [volume]. One statement renders the other statement utterly useless.
And the truth is, of course, that there is no market to buy or sell...which is why capital has fled...far far away from equities.
Right now the PDs have a deal going on: Using the Feds' money it's, I buy,then you buy then they buy, then I buy, then you buy.. and so on spiralling upward. The idea was that eventually retail would come in a buy the shit and take it off their hands for big profit. Ooops! No retail calvary came. New strategy: Using the Feds' money, I buy, then you buy...until someone blinks. Watch the movie "Margin Call" (bareable..just) for a hint as to who will be the first to cut and run.
No sir, you are dead wrong. The Federal Reserve is pumping billions into this sham, no one is buying except them. Get the facts straight.
Amen.
Smithy is correct - the fed doesn't buy directly, everything is filtered through the primary dealers. The Fed can print til doomsday but has a hell of a time getting the money to flow exactly where it wants. Ol' Ben would just love to buy SPY directly and be done with it...
Long / short guys will always have to be willing to sell something.. I'd get my nuts cut off and served for lunch if I didn't have downside hedges on.
looks like h&s
6 unhappy faces.
Bullish prescription anxiety drugs.
More technical analysis, a lot of comedy on ZH today, nice.
I know, right?
"A bull, a bear, and a Central Banker walk into a printer's shop..."
irrational? exuberant? check and check.
Ameritrade is running out of suckers, oops, customers.
more muppets...
Get your traveler's insurance and short Citi.
They had to jack the EURO a lot to get the bump up. Apple didn't do it.
Down? As in a drop in prices? AAAAAhahahahahahaaaaaaaaaa!! Sorry folks, that's just not allowed any longer. All hail the Central Planning masters at work.
Just got a text from Robo:
"Down? When ADBE, TIF, ORCL, NKE and (my "cult retail" favorite) LULU are supposed to report blow-out earnings this week?"
Thats just what they want everyone to think....conditioning the sheeple to just stand their and chew their cud and believe nothing bad will happen ever again is easy as pie.
Amen
Only that this time even if the sheeple get convinced, since their liabilities are higher than assets (assets = house prices), they can't be suckered.
Don't fight the tape.
The trend is your friend.
This time it's different.
Is this a haiku?
Fight the tape and lose
Bet the tape and think you win
Smart money bought gold
Bullish!
US National Debt $15,540,923,000,000 trillion (ticking up $10,000 per 1 second)
US Gross Domestic Product $15,074,231,000,000 trillion (ticking up only $5,000 per 1 second, half speed)
US Total National Assets $83,034,598,000,000 trillion (ticking up $20,000 per 1 second, double speed)
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
must be all the Apple I-Pads that makes US National Assets go up so fast...
what else could it possibly be ?
wr;)
WOW that makes me depressed realizing I have only about 2 seconds worth of savings.
Look at how steep the long end is getting. That will sure spark a home buying rally....oh and save the US budget problems....
Yes, back in the day, when you could trade a market. Ahhh, memories are so sweet.
Ok...official...the BlowHorn [CNBC] is no more listenable via stream than it is watchable on a television. Between this morning's AAPL orgy and J. Cramer-gasms, and this afternoon's treat of hearing T. Mathisen eating potato chips on mic, and then later talking about "sex in a box"...it is now official that any exposure at all to this bankrupt network is hazardous to your health.
You STILL watch CNBS?
I turned it off in 2009 and never looked back.
Sucks to be you. You're missing some great cleavage.
Anyone have a read on what to expect when earnings are reported shortly? More "mark to fantasy" and "liabilities are now assets" accounting?
mark
to muppet
heh..polar bear humour!
What could go wrong???
I turned it off 2 years ago. Why anyone here watches that bullshit is beyond me. Don't get it. Nothing but propaganda from idiots that barely know how to buy or sell a stock. They are there for "personality", not intelligence.
Come on guys. Turn it off.
OT: Plus a great video!
From Counterpunch. http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/03/19/goldman-sachs-trader-finds-a-new-occupy-tactic/
March 19, 20128.1K Wake Up Congress; Before the Next Collapse Goldman Sachs’ Trader Finds a New Occupy Tactic by PAM MARTENS
In the last decade, Wall Street has evolved from predator to organized crime with a speed dial to Washington. Instead of Washington reforming Wall Street, it has seduced and corrupted Washington. It didn’t have to come to this.
Since at least 1989, incredibly talented, hardworking men and women have been leaving high paying positions at major Wall Street institutions and alerting the public in meticulously crafted, first-hand narratives released by venerable publishing houses that Wall Street wants to rip off its clients’ faces.
On Wednesday, March 14, Greg Smith – following in the proud lineage of Micheal Lewis, Frank Partnoy and Nomi Prins – simply bypassed the tedious route of galleys and nit-picking editors and went straight to the OpEd page of the New York Times with his resignation letter decrying Goldman Sachs for abusing its clients. “It makes me ill how callously people talk about ripping their clients off. Over the last 12 months I have seen five different managing directors refer to their own clients as ‘muppets,’ sometimes over internal e-mail,” Smith said. He called the current environment at Goldman “as toxic and destructive as I have ever seen it.”
Each day since then, corporate media pundits have frenetically struggled to characterize the motives of this 33-year old earning $500,000 a year. The defining moment in this debate came in this video where Evan Newmark, Wall Street Journal columnist and a former Managing Director of Goldman Sachs, asks MarketWatch writer Jon Friedman the following question in reference to the 3 million page hits Smith’s OpEd had received on line: “Do you think Greg Smith will have an easy time monetizing his popularity?” I had to play the tape three times to be sure I wasn’t hallucinating.
A young man throws both caution and his career to the wind in a virtual scream for the leadership of this country to wake up to what’s still transpiring on Wall Street and a journalist for the newspaper covering Wall Street can only relate the selfless act to dollar signs. The Wall Street culture of greed is metastasizing into the larger society at a gut churning pace. The assumption by Newmark is that there is no one earning $500,000 who might love his country, its future, the next generation’s future more than his love of money.
Anyone catch that little disruption in the emini a couple mins ago? I saw a 10 point diff pop up to the red side. Fortunately, it was caught. God forbid the SOB goes down today.
1407 down to 1397, then back to 1414. Fukin motion sickness..
muppets
have fat fingers
You mean God forbid it ever goes down again! Feels like perhaps many of us would like to think we're in the eye of a hurricane but maybe not. That would be unopportunistic!
Caught that blip as well. Move on, does not mean anything.
This market can really explode to the upside with quarter end window dressing.
. .
0
This post makes me certainly not feel alone.
only pussies hedge!!
ALL IN for S&P2000 !!
muppets
in the hedges..
When I was very young, I told my friends that the treasury could print money and give it to everyone, that no one had to be poor - we could all be millionaires.
The last decade has verified that I should have started my own school of economics.
What good is it to be a millionaire, if a hamburger costs $15 million?
http://www.creators.com/opinion/walter-williams/africa-a-tragic-continent.html
"Where did all the Humans go!?!?
What about our poker game?
I'm a fair dealer, really I am.
Solitaire isn't nearly as much fun."
http://community.digitalmediaacademy.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/T-800-terminator.png
what is a 95% put, tyler?
an out-of the-money with a strike 95% of the underlying or more?