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Snapshot Summary Of Fluid Compromise Debt Ceiling Deal

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With the debt ceiling "compromise" deal still in flux, although at least according to the FX market expected to be approved shortly, despite the protestations of liberal democrats (one wonders if Obama will accuse said group of hostage tactics much as he accused conservative republicans of the same last week), below is what the current shape of the proposed deal looks like courtesy of the WSJ's Washington Wire blog.

Here’s the outline of the debt ceiling deal as of now, according to officials on both sides:

  • $900 billion in the first stage of deficit reduction.
  • $1.5 trillion in second stage of deficit reduction to be defined by a bipartisan special committee of lawmakers appointed by leaders of the House and Senate.
  • If the special committee fails to deliver a deficit-cutting package that would trigger $1.2 trillion in cuts, half would be Defense cuts and the other half would be non-Defense cuts, exempting low-income programs Social Security and Medicaid, and only impacting providers in Medicare.
  • The debt ceiling increase would be done in three phases: $400 billion initially; another $500 billion later this year would be subject to a vote of disapproval; a third increase of $1.5 to get the rest through 2012 and would also be subject to vote of disapproval.
  • There is also a provision to have Congress vote on balanced budget amendment.
  • The special committee would not necessarily tackle tax reform. But Mr. Obama is threatening to veto any extension of the Bush-era tax cuts for those making $250,000 a year or more unless Congress acts on an overhaul of the tax code.

One can easily see why more radical elements on either side are not be too happy with the proposed bill layout. To be sure the futures market will immediately price in a deal with a triple digit move in the DJIA expected. The only question is at what point will the fade commence, since it is now obvious that absent more monetary stimulus, GDP will go negative first slowly, then very fast as backended cuts start materializing.

 

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Sun, 07/31/2011 - 17:58 | 1510500 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

...When you finally wake up (put on the sunglasses) you will realize that your freedom is? a facade...

 

Movie They live where he sees the real world, the other reality

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zqi5KGljJZk

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:20 | 1510568 Michael
Michael's picture

Just to be be perfectly clear about what we are doing here;

We're trying to save the fucking country from complete implosion and total destruction.

We're trying to save something to salvage of the once great USA. 

Mon, 08/01/2011 - 23:14 | 1515565 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

sometimes you have to die to live

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:23 | 1510580 Anonymouse
Anonymouse's picture

The longest movie fight scene in history.  I think it is still going on now.  Rowdy Roddy Piper saves the world.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EsZpdUUdd3I

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:33 | 1510610 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

THIS IS YOUR GOD

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 20:04 | 1510871 Esso
Esso's picture

I remember the good ol' days when that movie seemed far-fetched.

That gal in the movie with the really striking blue or green eyes was a total hottie.

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:00 | 1510507 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

And that Medicaid and Medicare is but a illusion being shattered by Doctors who are losing money on those patients.

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:14 | 1510547 Bob
Bob's picture

So Medicare patients are leaving the office with the Doctor's money?  Or the marginal revenue from treating them does not cover the marginal expense of the Doctor?  Or the Doctor doesn't get what he thinks he's worth, so he says he "lost" the difference between that fantasy number and what he actually got paid?

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:28 | 1510596 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

Bobbie (I use the diminuitive, since you don't really understand this stuff): "So Medicare patients are leaving the office with the Doctor's money?..."

But of course, I'll (gently) remind you that "Time Is Money."

So medicare patient's paperwork burden on a medical practice (usually a small practice n.b.) is so much more than other re-engineered<fn e.g. Hammer is a good start: http://www.abebooks.com/servlet/SearchResults?an=hammer&sts=t&tn=reengin... </fn> situations.  And you assume that there are "marginal" decisions?  In a small setting, each engagement is itself.

You really don't understand small business, nor does Our Dear President's mind, nor his so-called "Economic Team," now defunct.

- Ned

{Oh, I just saw "fantasy number"--why, that is Uncle Joe who's appointment was moved into the future to accommodate the command medical economy's free session.}

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:53 | 1510660 Bob
Bob's picture

It's quite like a Doctor to say he's losing money when he's making more than 98% of the population.  Apparently, he pretends that his income would be more without the "entitlement" program money . . . even as he takes the deal.  It speaks for itself. 

That doesn't stop Doctors from lying about it, though. 

They remind me of lawyers and politicians.  Actually, a fair number of them become politicians.  No surprise. 

Sorry, I should have disclosed that I've worked all my adult life in medical practices, except for the five years I worked in the health insurance industry.  I know more than enough. 

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 19:09 | 1510746 uniman
uniman's picture

The cost of medical care is obviously out of control.  This is because there is so much government intrusion into the marketplace.  Doctors eat well in this situation and it's difficult for me to have sympathy for them when one of the myriad of candy bowls is reduced in size.  Live and die by the sword gentlemen.

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 21:10 | 1511073 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

My doctor makes $175k a year.

My broker's bonus last year was $450k last year.

My favorite basketball player was paid $15 million last year.

Go figure.

Mon, 08/01/2011 - 23:20 | 1515581 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

average NBA contract. 2 years. gotta go sell used cars or something after that.

wall st bonuses are not guaranteed every year and only top performers get it and $450 don't get you far in NYC where 1bedroom condo is $1M.

every doctor has a job for life and skills are portable to lower cost areas and even another country.

 

Doctors have the ultimate government job with AMA union backing and med schools limiting supply of skills. If you really want to help people, then go invent cures not become a human mechanic.

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:07 | 1510513 Cleanclog
Cleanclog's picture

 Genius!  More debt and fewer revenues. By 2022 debt will be about $23Trillion if this goes according to plan. GDP will slowly turn negative and then speed up as the debt expands and spending by Government slows.  Beautiful.

 

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:15 | 1510554 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

No chance the economy can continue as it is for that long. 

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:03 | 1510514 Debtless
Debtless's picture

Gold & Silver opened $15 and .50 down. 

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:03 | 1510517 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

I am watching it now, thank you.

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:16 | 1510555 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

i think it will go like this...yeah the world's saved ,down go metals, up goes paper...than boo the world is fucked [metals go up} paper goes down...btfd...

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:03 | 1510516 Corn1945
Corn1945's picture

This doesn't even come close to fixing the problem. At best we are left with $1 trillion deficits.

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:09 | 1510532 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

It only Fiat Money. This ensures Gold and Silver will continue the climb higher.

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:03 | 1510518 oogs66
oogs66's picture

I can't find a single American who believes andly of the bs they are trying to sell us. They know the crisis was part artificial and that this solution isn't a solution. Have they finally gone too far?

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:16 | 1510559 Manzilla
Manzilla's picture

I wish I could agree but that is impossible. There are a ton of Americans that eat the crap these hacks are spoon feeding them. The biggest hacks among them have been there for a long time. Why? Cause there are plenty of idiots that actually believe their elected officials and keep voting for them. Unfortunately I think there is too many of these partisan hacks out there. I only pray the next election proves me wrong.

 

We need a change and until then we are screwed.

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:04 | 1510520 Goatboy
Goatboy's picture

Too little explanations, too many details. I am being drawn into their useless spectacle. I consciously refuse that!

Or should I yell: "Gold bitchez!" and get some instant approval from same dimension?

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:04 | 1510521 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

"Backended cuts" will never materialize. That is the whole point of making them "backended".

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:07 | 1510527 Subprime JD
Subprime JD's picture

Tyler please provide an analysis of how much national debt to GDP the US can incur until the bond market vomits. For some reason 22 trillion is the number that I think will sink us, plus or minus 1 trillion lol.

 

Dow Futures up 153

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:08 | 1510531 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

 

 

Futures are open.

ES up 16

Gold crushed to $1,609

Poor General Jim, still waiting for TEOTWAWKI

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:13 | 1510543 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Gold crushed to $1,609.

 

LOL! Good one. Gold has been gaining at an 8% rate a MONTH for several years.

 

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:37 | 1510606 JonNadler
JonNadler's picture

gold crushed to 1609! HA HA HA

but Robot, gold was never going to go to 1609 right? Change your name already and say you just sold a tonn of gold because it's going to colapse any minute now

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:20 | 1510570 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

in the meantime as you would bray, the silver eagles you sold are now higher than when you sold them. so if your new bestest buddy tells you silver and gold are gonna explode you'll be buying them back much higher than where you sold them. but i digress. you probably had to sell them to cover rent given your terrible trading results.

btw, your number one pick for 2011, std, is down 20%. gold is down about 1% from its high. too bad. you lose again.

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 19:23 | 1510785 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

Lookout…
Gold is getting monkey hammered!  ;-)

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:11 | 1510538 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Why does this entire "deal" smell like another bullshit sprinkler?

I'm just sayin'....

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:16 | 1510558 r101958
r101958's picture

Because it is. Down the road a bit it allows for, as Nixon would say, 'plausible deniability'. Both sides are able to squirm their way out of requirements.

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:11 | 1510539 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

They can pass all the balance budget deals and future tax hikes and future spending cuts they want. None will come to fruition. They will just

pospone them over and over again, the same way they have been putting off letting the Bush tax cuts expire. So this deal is only more

political theater. This way, future taxes are figured in projected budgets even though they will never be realized so the Pols can skew the

figures to their advantage.

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:11 | 1510542 caerus
caerus's picture

ES, NQ gap up open

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:12 | 1510544 snowball777
snowball777's picture

STFR.

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:15 | 1510553 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Long recyclers and hoarders. Buy your toilet paper early and buy it often

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:17 | 1510556 FinalCollapse
FinalCollapse's picture

1. I am not so sure they will be able to neutralize the political extremes: Progressives and TPs (my apologies to all Tea Partiers, from their fan). This deal may go through two or three more iterations, with new deadline being the next Friday.

2. I hope they renegotiate for long time, and shut down the fucking goverment for couple of months, and save us a bundle of money.

3. The Wall Street/CNBC sheeple will celebrate for an hour or two, and the SP500 will melt up. Then hangover will settle in - the Ponzi is coming to an end. Welcome to new realty. SP500 will take a dive. The fools will part with their money.

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:17 | 1510561 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

 

 

Probably time to buy bank stocks hand over fist Monday.  Note how they showed relative strength Friday, same with EEM.  Same thing always happens at intermediate lows.

July went down with an all-time record of 16 days with -1000 TICK readings, and 4 over -1300.

Back in the 1990's, when you saw that, it was time to back up the truck and mortgage the house to buy stocks.

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:24 | 1510585 Subprime JD
Subprime JD's picture

I agree and with QE3 coming "soon" stocks will continue to levitate higher by the HFT algos doing gods work. On a technical basis the market looks like it wants to march along as higher highs and lower lows have continued. For some reason I have a feeling that the SPX will break its all time high in 2007 and march on to make new highs, possibly 2000 SPX points.

The name of the game is growth and the CB's will do everything in their power to make sure that said growth takes place. Of course they will fail miserably but the point here is that they will attempt to grow US GDP to 25 trillion by 2020 in order to meet all the existing obligations. Eventually peak oil will break this ponzi.

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:28 | 1510595 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

i thought you already were a big owner of bank stocks, particularly std, which you said was your top pick for 2011. you peddled that in december 2010. of course, i'm jesting since anybody who has read your tripe knows you are a buy and hold, widows and orphans portfolio kinda buyer, too broke to be a player, and too afraid to take a position since one error wipes you out.

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:28 | 1510562 firefighter302
firefighter302's picture

What does "vote of disapproval" mean?

Anyone know?

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:32 | 1510607 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

It's the insane McConnel proposal.

Congress says all tranches of ceiling increase are approved . . . unless later disapproved.  The later disapproval is a separate bill that Obama CAN VETO.  

In other words, the ceiling is increased, Congress can vote NOT to increase it and say they did to the voters, but there will be no practical way to stop the increase.  They'd have to muster 2/3 of both houses to override the veto.

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:41 | 1510639 firefighter302
firefighter302's picture

I understand.

Of course, more of the usual games. 

Thanks guys.

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:23 | 1510567 anynonmous
anynonmous's picture

For any who have had the pleasure of being affiliated with an orgnaization that brought in consultants to find cost savings, you know this is 90% absolute and unadulterated pure effin BS.   Well done Tea Party losers (as in you had your chance and blew it), and all you Progressive types, how are you liking your man now?

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:20 | 1510569 bbq on whitehou...
bbq on whitehouse lawn's picture

George Washington and Andrew Jackson. Are two of the most elite's monkeys to ever exists. Yet both had a strong vengence streak. It seems if you want a strong president you need someone with a chip on their shoulder and a score to settle.

Im looking foward to the next money with a score to settle with the powers that be.

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:22 | 1510578 r101958
r101958's picture

Yep Dow futures went from -105 after market Friday to +152 now. So consensus says a ponzi deal has been struck but not publicly announced yet. Hate to show all the smoke and mirrors before absolutely necessary.

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:25 | 1510586 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

A sham of a deal in Congress is such great news because I thought the Repocrats were really going to default the U.S.

Well done you fine public servants.  Well done!  We little people are so grateful.  Please raise my taxes and bail-out Italy!

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:29 | 1510588 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

Wait , what?? "A Bipartisan Special Committee" ?!

$1.5 trillion in second stage of deficit reduction to be defined by a bipartisan special committee of lawmakers appointed by leaders of the House and Senate.

Is this going to be crooks from the same Committees that turned Health Care Reform into a giveaway to insurance companies?

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:30 | 1510598 bbq on whitehou...
bbq on whitehouse lawn's picture

Robo you cant win. The game is not built for you to win.

Many years ive slowly baught shares of small caps and dumped them when the technicals showed they would be weak only to buy them back. That game is over. done. gone.

The robots are to fast now, you cant even buy at a price or sell at a price without the robots running you.

One day you will see that you cant profit from this game they play. Sadly you will learn to late to save all your have "earned".

You cannot out run the risk reward of gold longs. Its just not possable. All that stress is still a cost, and risk.

Physical gold pays no taxes and pays no IRS. You cant beat your overall retern.

Silver can be better if you have a mexican contact and way to traval un-molested. But few do.

So gold is the only game in town if you want Max profits. Good luck out runing my. The sooner you wake up to this reality the sooner you can be a pigman.

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:30 | 1510599 NumNutt
NumNutt's picture

I can hardly wait. After all is said and done, and the congress and house sign a deal that kicks the can down the road a little further. Then King shit on turd island, Obama, will hold a press meeting and talk in grand, vague words about how wonderful the world is, and how we can all eat rainbows and poop butterflies because the federal government saved the world........I need another beer....Onward into the Abyss!!!

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:38 | 1510631 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

Best commentary I have heard all weekend?  Why, "poop butterflies" of course!

 

The U.S. leads the world in poop butterflies!  USA!  USA!  USA!

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 20:38 | 1510964 NumNutt
NumNutt's picture

AH HA! I knew it here it comes, Obama to speak at 8:40 pm EST.........Now if I could just pick lottery numbers this easily....

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:34 | 1510617 rtbarr
rtbarr's picture

"only impacting providers in Medicare"

I am a general internist with a specialty interest in geriatrics. Medicare $ are about 75% of my collections. I will look into becoming a non-participating physician with respect to Medicare if this impact is what I think it will be. Everyone should prepare to help your aging parents pay for their doctor visits as the doctors will "just say no" to Medicare. When your overhead is 60%, a 10% cut in the Medicare fee schedule means you take home 25% less. Not a sustainable business model. 

RT Barr MD

 

 


Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:39 | 1510637 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

You will do what the Global Bank Cartel tells you do do, just like the rest of us...

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:35 | 1510618 rtbarr
rtbarr's picture

"only impacting providers in Medicare"

I am a general internist with a specialty interest in geriatrics. Medicare $ are about 75% of my collections. I will look into becoming a non-participating physician with respect to Medicare if this impact is what I think it will be. Everyone should prepare to help your aging parents pay for their doctor visits as the doctors will "just say no" to Medicare. When your overhead is 60%, a 10% cut in the Medicare fee schedule means you take home 25% less. Not a sustainable business model. 

RT Barr MD

 

 


Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:39 | 1510632 jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

That is an important distinction in where the cuts would come from.

Still though, it's a farce.  Does nothing, creates a super congress, with automatic cuts for banksters frauds, if we won't slit our own throats to pay off the banksters.

 

Glass-Steagall, not cuts to things we need.

Things we don't need? Sure.  But not to pay off fraudulent debt, but just to be prudent.

This however would go out of one pocket, into the banksters pockets, to pay for their fraud.

 

 

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:39 | 1510635 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

 

HOW MUCH IS CUT FROM FY2012???

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:41 | 1510641 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

$1, pro forma for the $1.6 trillion deficit!

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:46 | 1510648 vegas
vegas's picture

If this is the deal, then it sucks; same old shit from Washington.

Sheeple, the cuts are never going to come from the elite political class.

Commissions? You're shitting me right? I'm supposed to believe this?

The only way the Ponzi changes is when the market forces Amerika to change or shuts off the funding.

It's the only way.

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 18:46 | 1510650 jfms99
jfms99's picture

This kind of deal pretty much seals our fate. We are now moving toward Default now sooner rather than  later.

The reason, Interest Expense on the Debt. It is simply amazing how discussion on the magic of annual compound interest seems to elude the thinking of our congress. Another example of no one there who took or understands the basics of Econ 101.

We will be downgraded, should already have been, that is coming soon. With interest rates moving up that will translate to the U.S. allocating more of the budget to interest expense until Default. As at some point the interest expense will take every tax dollar coming into the Treasury to pay it.

 

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 19:00 | 1510705 uniman
uniman's picture

I guess this is so obvious that nobody has pointed it out.  But isn't there a time value of money element to this?  They will borrow the money now, but pretend to slow down their spending several years in the future?  This sounds like a sucker deal to me.

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 19:00 | 1510707 uniman
uniman's picture

I guess this is so obvious that nobody has pointed it out.  But isn't there a time value of money element to this?  They will borrow the money now, but pretend to slow down their spending several years in the future?  This sounds like a sucker deal to me.

Sun, 07/31/2011 - 19:39 | 1510823 oncefired
oncefired's picture

What a Joke. We'll see how long Helicopter Ben can hold down rates - once they tick up - the flood gates are open and default is unstoppable.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 04:14 | 1667228 chinawholesaler
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