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So Far The "Europe Gone Home" Rally Is Working... How Much Longer?
From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors
Feels like people are waiting for Europe to go home so that we can rally? That has worked in the past, but I don't think it will this time. This was not just European selling. It is not just the problems in Europe. In fact, the news seems to be getting worse out of there. Merkel and Sarkozy announce they have a candidate for the new head of something or other and that is somehow useful and positive? Finland, and potentially others demanding collateral from Greece to provide more funding is far more important in my opinion.
At the same time, our data was awful. Brutal, yet most people seem to want to trade in anticipation of the next rally. That conviction that we will bounce doesn't seem to have disappeared. The Europe gone home rally is just another example of that. Yet how many times have rallies failed to materialize because everyone is anticipating them?
For everyone who points to fact that SPX was at 1200 yesterday and tries to argue that not much has changed, I think it has. Europe is struggling to keep the bandaid solutions in place and the big economies are getting weaker. The US data was weak across the board today and Fed dissenters are becoming more vocal. SPX hit 1120 last Wednesday. Why aren't we asking what is better since then? Remembering that the Fed came out on Tuesday, I struggle to think of too many things that are better since we hit 1120.
So far the Europe gone home rally is working, but it is so widely known and discussed I just don't see it lasting.
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Will be flat by close today....
I have that feeling as well.. Only mental midgets and robots on this side of the pond.
Lookout for 3:30 They can't trip the breakers because i don't think anyone got short after yesterdays forced cover.
"How many times have rallys failed to materialize because everyone anticipated them?" Probably never, would be my best guess. The bottom is in; the rally is on; too bad the bears got their feelings hurt. No new highs this year, says Marc Faber; sounds right; but there's a lotta bargain hunting going on out there; and the beatings will continue until morale improves.
AAII 36% bulls, 40% bears. Bottoms don't occur at 36% bulls. Far too little fear out there.
"If I'm underwater in equities just hold on til I get bailed out by QE3 before the NFL kickoff," one trader wrote, summarizing the sentiment of many on the street.
A shining example of moral hazard, brought to you by the Fed.
10yr back > 2%. Not for loooooong...
You're probably right, Canadian womens; but the trouble with Bond Markets is they're pretty frigging crazy; someday soon the Ten year will have seen 2% in the rear view mirror; forever. Just sayin.
maybe today is Oct 16, if so we'll close way down in anticipation of Monday
If I had an ASE for every time one of the fucktards on CNBC this morning said, "This is not 2008", I'd sell 'em and talk to y'all bitchez from my yacht in the Keys.
Yea CNBC is right, its WAY worse than 2008!
Good point, they were right by accident. Also, I'd only sell half the ASE's, and the other half I would pile on my bed and let my bevy of primo hookers roll around in 'em.
Way to go; class counts. Got to show some style.
Thank you. I have a rep to maintain.
> 2:30 PM...no more circuit breackers....!
Grocery ATM'S not working this morning or gas station
It's not acting right to blow out the lows.
Closed shorts. Disappointed.
"Brutal, yet most people seem to want to trade in anticipation of the next rally. That conviction that we will bounce doesn't seem to have disappeared."
dead cats gotta eat too.
"dead cats gotta eat too"--love it. plus 100.
Merkel & Sarkozy talking about a finance head while Finland is demanding collateral on Greece. Does anybody here know what the other is doing?
eu is falling apart. greeks and some others bye bye. shame, some of us, we're staying in. welcome in the iv. reich.
Is this the thread where Robotraitor tells us that Bernanke will go down in history as the greatest central planner for stocks?
I always warned Robo dancing and partying with the devil like he loved to do was fine and all, have fun, but dont come crying to me when you get 3rd degree burns.
Robo after hours
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubpwmCai93g
Tyler,
I am a sick child with a terminal disease. I contacted the Make-a-Wish Foundation to let them know of my one wish in the world. That wish is to receive baby_BLYTHE’s comments directly to my iPhone.
They said I should see you about that wish. Make it happen, buddy.
Alternatively, BB, if you are on twitter let us spacemonkeys know!
So basically, we hope there are some more idiots with pockets full of money to throw at this disaster of a market and rally it? Whatever.
In the global group thinking bus called "investors" questions are not allowed. There's only one truth: Follow the Birinyi ruler.
What's better? Central banks have a s***ton more gold, and that's better for them. Isn't that what life is all about?
Traders have become Pavlovian dogs waiting for the Fed to give them another biscuit.
You couldn't be more right. Brilliant analogy. God I am sick to death of lazy fucking equity traders getting half a bar a year for knowing nothing else but to buy and who haven't had an original thought to themselves since leaving uni. Fuck you all and your supported longs, fuck you and your politican backstops, fuck you all the way to SnP 450 when you get found out you bunch of oxygen stealers. End of rant.
Hopefully, but the time the S&P hits 450, the facilities staffs will have unbolted the windows on wall street.
So what now, more promise of failed disastrous money printing? So what?
LIVING THROUGH A CURRENCY DEVALUATION AND WHAT IS WAITING FOR US
I was managing an American subsidiary of a successful large US Company in Mexico. It had been a financial turnaround for our team. Cash flow had accumulated in our bank in Mexico and corporate didn’t want the money repatriated to the US. Although we had already paid a 35% income tax to the Mexican government, we would have to pay an additional 30% exit tax to repatriate the money. In addition, we would have to pay high fees for the peso/dollar exchange, in order to make the transfer. The company wanted to expand our successful business and so we decided to keep the money in Mexican pesos to be used for further expansion.
One morning, as my wife and I were on a trip driving on the highway, we heard a national message from the President of Mexico, Luis Echevarria, one of the most corrupt presidents in Mexican history. “It is a lie that we are going to devalue the peso,” he said.
Read more
http://lonerangersilver.wordpress.com/2011/08/13/living-through-a-curren...
Good one. That's about it, alright.
Inflation is bad enough, but the USD is going to lose it's WRC status and the immediate consequences will be ugly and lasting. I suspect an overnight devaluation for the USD, after a lot of volatility and machinations.
A sudden devaluation always seems to be the preferred tactic. It maximizes the government theft by catching everybody by surprise. Look for it again. People can protect themselves with PMs.
hey, thx for the link. i had seen this last week, too. when you introduce this you say, at the top: AND WHAT IS WAITING FOR US, yet the article you link to says (Paste):
The reason for the devaluation of the peso was simply that it had been pegged to the USD for too long and they rose and fell in unison. Because of better economic conditions in the US the dollar continued to go up in value and the peso increased in value artificially. Mexican goods were too expensive to trade with other countries and hence the devaluation, which allowed exports to increase. For the first time in decades the peso was allowed to float and since then it has been allowed to freely rise and fall against the dollar. (emph. mine)
then the author goes on, like you, to predict a devaluation, with mexico's paling in camparison to what ours will be, so, BUY SILVER!
however, the article itself does not really provide and reasoning behind the devaluation prediction, and, if read carefully, indicates reasons for it not to happen. e.g., our currency is already floating. the swiss looked at "pegging" to this or that, and, as i figured, and put up on zH, didn't, b/c nobody's gonna peg to nuthin at this point
this leaves us with the scenario of the dollar's "collapse" most likely cause being: a skyrocketing euro L0L!!
i'm not trying to predict the future, but the "lone ranger" is! maybe he's right. i'm just very glad that that there are other reasons to buy silver
i see you as trying to spread the work and help people, jo, but imo, this is very close to trolling
Intervention time? Someone came in and lifted a bunch of ES in front of some key pivots. The only ones crazy enough to do that would have to be non-market participant participants.
That's my new favorite phrase. I'm going to pretend I thought of it myself. Thanks. LOL
non-market participant participant bitchez!!
It's every man (country) for themselves again.
Nation states have no choice but to scramble in their own self interest to protect themselves for an economic collapse that is approaching. The EU and other supranational entities are actually national security threats that put them in harms way. I think each country is now forced to 'get it'.
Good bye, EU. See you in the history books.
World war time gwar5.
Nonsense. The level of participation among central banks in kicking the can and bailing each other out, while slowly acquiring gold without running the price up on themselves, is unprecedented in world history. The Fed and the ECB are not going anywhere and the Chinese can stuff it. That's why they are so pissed and opened their own gold exchange. That's why they are pushing their citizens into gold denominated accouts while everyone else is hush, hush on owning physical. They know they are getting the shaft. That's why they whine and the Russians call us parasites. They are all jealous because we are better criminals than they are.
ZIRP is so powerful, waves of almost free money just bustin to get into the equities and drive them up. Free money can't drive markets down, especially when shorting is banned in half the free world, and so it is always upwards. Every day there is less "Investor money" and more "fast money". Volatility is going to increase steadily until implosion time. It reminds me of the Rodeo Clown, he gets as close and in the face of the bull as he can and then as soon as that bull turns on him bam, he's out of there headed for the fence, and then when the bull cools a little, right back in his face.
HFTs will hold FIB of 1141 on post Euro trade unles Wadell has some to go
hopium is hitting new extremes.....but obama isn't worried.
Obama isnt worried, because he knows its all planned and irrelevant, and hes the last US president according to leaked CIA memo.
What memo?
Don't bother.
whats the deal with HPQ?
European Union Headquarters
Helping to build affordable office space for the citizens of Europe.
you look great in that Dow 11K hat, mr d! mine has 2 fat fingers!
if i take off the hat and put 1 finger sticking up on each side of my h-h-head, i don't need no stinkin 11K hat! and i'm a deer in the jack-light, too!
Those stockpicker dinosaurs on CNBS can´t believe what´s happening. Wonderful.
Ouch.
Just when I was ready to get all smug again.
4 percent down on ewz has my attention.
something i tend to notice lately on the gold market is the way that for most of asian trading, gold is rather smooth and steady one way or another... nothing all that crazy. it likes to dip just before us markets open and hold to see the opening results and then acts accordingly. however the troughs and peaks become far more drastic and volatile... and far more systematic. it's almost as if it's being manipulated to prevent a breakout. a breakout of gold on the us market's watch would send pretty much everything else plummeting at this point.
actually, it's probably attributed to the scalpers. in asia there is far far far more buy and hold activity and looking for long term growth than those trying to ride the wave snatching up a few bucks at a time.
It doesn't seem to be rallying much so far... but it's transitory. All will be well. Nothing to see here. Move along.
Greece says will not discuss collateral with other countries than Finland
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/18/austria-greece-idUSLDE77H01T20...
The banks are now the Achilles heel of the world. They are also the despots who run it, like Achilles the invincible and the Greek army facing Troy. If Achilles dies his heel becomes history. Period. We have to kill Achilles. Or let him die on his own. I think its the second option which is now playing out. As Sarko-Merkel, like Priam, king of Troy, and his twenty sons are unable to do it.
Nobody dares kill Achilles, until Paris does it. But his death will it save Troy? Or will the remaining Oligarchs destroy it?
You know the anwser. So Paris is Ben Bernanke, and ECB central surrogate. His bow and arrow the QE hyperinflationary rage.
Watch Achilles, the greenback cum Euro fiat, die. Watch Troy burn. Watch the Achaean Greeks become History.
I am waiting for the 2PM ish ramp job. Will it be back up or will it be a plummeting slope down? We really don't know. The DOW could end up 700 points down or 700 points up since humans are not in control.
The markets were down 5% across the board but the Dow is holding 11k at 1PM so that has to be bullish for the rest of the afternoon right?
The funniest thing is that SODA is up for the day!!! The ramp job stocks aren't down by that much at the moment and most still didn't fall to their June low. While CNBC likes to make good TV out of the turmoil the real plunge hasn't even started.
If Apple drops to $320 then you have a real market selloff.
1998 LTCM and Russian default. Move along.
i don't like banksters, either, but i'm not a troll. and when i enter into a dialogue with someone, i try to make sense about the subject. some "people" have very low standards and shld be watched very closely b/c they will attack honest dialogical exchanges on zH by viscious ad hominem attacks if "they" think i'm being "too tough" on one of their "friends"
and many people know to whom i'm referring
don't they?
Putting The Cart On Top Of The Horse, Or Why Heaping Fiscal "Stimulus" Upon "Stimulus" Is Suicide For America | ZeroHedge [8.16.11/22:57-0400]
took me a whole day to figure it out, too! The Scariest Chart Ever: Philly Fed Versus Non-Farm Payrolls | ZeroHedge Thu, 08/18/2011 - 10:51 #1572966
I do not but am interested in knowing this, slewie.
While the links were dead for me at first, my curiousity was peaked...after investigating and adding an additional random sample of three comments...falak pema sux is my conclusion.
the links don't copy b/c i am signed in, maybe, and they won't open to "welcome slewie" for others.
but thank you for doing the work and seeing what happened to me, there. ORI seems to have little "bots" here, now, from his off-site "relationships" and i know for a fact (well, almost) that ORI has their e-mail addresses, also. isn't that nice to know!
that said, i'm not blaming ORI for what is happening. yet.
Boy do I have a dilemma... I don't like banksters either, but my wife is one.
awesome!
you know how hot blythe gets ole slewie!
i had just sent an e-mail to a young man down by Palo Alto who had asked me abt gold content of post-bellum US Mint-produced coinage...
...and it ended with (paste): "p.s. blythe is starting to really piss people off, again, w/ the silver cap working. maybe she would like to pull another train..."
oh, blythe! ...blythe! sweetheart!
where is robo to tell us to wait for the 3 pm rally?
Robo is now Doug Kass's Chief Investment Advisor. He will no longer be posting at ZH.
I used to be a little (not too much) skeptical of the folks who claim war is around the corner. I am now a believer. Prepare for war because it is coming. The wheels are about to come completely off of Europe's "economy" and the rest of the world seems ready to follow via contagion. Someone is going to pick up the role of scapegoat and then it's gonna pop off. I believe that venezuela has made the final move by taking their gold from england and the us. If this is not it, then there will be others who follow venezuela. I wish we could put a stop to this cycle of events and just have the necessary financial corrections--but someone is going to be a sore loser here and try to kick some ass. Who will it be? The US? Russia? England? Germany perhaps?