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So, Wait, Gold Is NOT Outperforming Stocks By 23% YTD?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Listening to all the mouth foaming commentary out of assorted TV channels and economics professors which have apparently suddenly woken up from their deep hibernation regarding the imminent death of the gold market, one could be left with the impression that gold was wiped out, collapsed, imploded and will never rise again. After all: what does it really bring to the table aside from complete lack of monetary dilutability and a safe haven to hundreds of trillions in derivative counterparty risk (in its physical form that is, as Celente recently found out), not to mention a hedge to human idiocy as Kyle Bass said a few days ago? Well nothing really... So we were shocked, shocked, when we ran a simple chart comparing the performance of gold and the S&P Year to Date to discover that outperforming by a margin of about 23% is... gold? Huh. But wait, the real safe haven are bonds many would say. After all, the US has no counterparty risk and it has prudent fiscal and monetary authorities. So how do they compare? Well, as of today: flat, with gold actually outperforming modestly. That's right - gold and the US long bond, even following the recent "drubbing" in gold have generated the same price return. So... what were we talking about again?

Gold vs ES:

and Gold vs the Long Bond:

Source: BBG

 

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Mon, 11/21/2011 - 18:02 | 1900229 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

this $1680 level has been important

i just wish we were done testing it!

hopefully, zeroHeads are pretty liquid, not needing to raise cash in these markets, and keeping score in ounces, not FRNs, anywayZ!

i was just reading this GATA piece:  Florida huckster jailed for behaving like bullion banks, which aren't jailed | Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee  lmao, BiCheZ!!

 

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 17:51 | 1900233 bilbao
bilbao's picture

In 1970, if you put all your money into a Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio, consisting of

25% Gold (Physical)

25% Cash (T-Bills)

25% Long Treasuries

25% S&P 500

...and rebalanced using 15/35 rebalancing bands, you would have had very steady returns with very little volatility:

http://goo.gl/YK5hC

Each asset represents one of the four possible economic conditions: Inflation (Gold), Deflation (Long Bonds), Prosperity (Stocks), and Recession (Cash). No matter what, one of those conditions will take hold and you'll always own one of the winners without having to predict the future. It's the perfect replacement for your Money Market Fund.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 17:55 | 1900263 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Commodity inflation, asset deflation, credit destruction and currency hyperinflation. Did I miss anything? Oh yeah, bankers, please keep hitting gold and silver. I loooooove a gooooooood bargain!

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 17:55 | 1900267 dereksatkinson
dereksatkinson's picture

While gold is doing great, the miners are getting murdered.  Huge disconnect.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 18:05 | 1900316 Ted Baker
Ted Baker's picture

LET ALL THE SUCKERS IN WALL STREET AND HEDGE FUNDS IN THE US CONTINUE DUMPING THE PAPER TRADE..I AM GONNA LOAD MYSELF WITH MORE PHYSICAL GOLD AT CHEAPER PRICES THAT WHAT THOSE SUCKERS PAID FOR....

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 18:43 | 1900488 tkinfo
tkinfo's picture

Just don't forget that Gold fell peak to trough 29% during the first wave of the financial crisis in 2008 so there is nothing wrong with a correction now. We had been long the PM in our hedge fund but have instituted an asymetric strategy that weights our returns on the short side for now with a target of around $1,200.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 18:59 | 1900544 reTARD
reTARD's picture

Any ideas on what this means in layman's "simplified" terms?

http://blog.milesfranklin.com/hold-onto-your-gold-with-strong-hands

 

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 19:20 | 1900611 Conax
Conax's picture

The writer was always stressed out holding paper, but when he converted it all into phyzz, he relaxed. You only lose money if you sell into weakness. If prices fall you have to wait til they come back up. Holding gold is not unpleasant, in fact it is comforting to know that come hell or high water, you can always hit the wind with that stash. With paper wealth you can be robbed blind by the bankers, like Gerald Celente.

Gold was valuable since the dawn of recorded history, and always will be. Relaxing.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 22:15 | 1901028 DosZap
DosZap's picture

reTard

Yeah,it means do not let the ASSHOLES shake your faith in HOLDING your physical, no matter how much it fluctuates.

PERIOD.

Jim Sinclair said when we hit phase III,be PREPARED for 200-300.00+ DAILY swings.

DO NOT SELL YOUR CORE HOLDINGS.

Keep as much as you can afford to, and not ever have to SELL till this SLAUGHTER is over.

It is your SEED MONEY.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 19:00 | 1900546 Mr_Wonderful
Mr_Wonderful's picture

Estragon: I can´t go on like this.

Vladimir: That´s what you think.

---Waiting for Godot (hyperinflation).

Debt will be liquidated for the next 10-15 years at lest.

The price of money (debt) is accordingly just shy of a 100-year high. There is absolutely no indication that this will change in the foreseeable future. Under these circumstances it will continue to be sheer madness to accumulate largely useless stuff at outlandish prices.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 20:32 | 1900819 mjk0259
mjk0259's picture

"The price of money (debt) is accordingly just shy of a 100-year high. "

??Huh? My mortgage is 5% - about the same as inflation so effectively zero. First one I had was 14%. I could borrow money on stocks for even less. 


Mon, 11/21/2011 - 19:43 | 1900710 TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

Finally, finally, someone who gets it right here.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 19:54 | 1900725 kekekekekekeke
kekekekekekeke's picture

I last bought gold maples @ $1050 it's way too hard to purchase these days so I stick with silver but silver has not been very cooperative lately, should I switch to buying gold? maybe then silver would take off

 

I'm 3:1 silver vs gold in money spent, about 2:1 in value 

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 20:32 | 1900817 Ted Baker
Ted Baker's picture

ANYTHING PRINTED BY THE US WORTH IN TODAY'S TERMS THE SAME AS ONE ROLL OF TOILETTE PAPER I.E. WORTHLESS PIECE OF CRAP....WHO IN THE RIGHT STATE OF MIND WILL BE BUYING TREASURIES....GOLD HAS OUTPERFORMED ALL ASSET CLASSES AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO BY YEAR END AND NEXT YEAR...THE SQUIDS AT GOLDMAN PREDICTED GOLD TO END THE YEAR AT 1,850 AND THAT'S POSSIBLE THE ONLY THING THEY HAVE GOTTEN RIGHT IN A LONG LONG WHILE...BY THE WAY THE US BANKS ARE ALL BANKRUPT TOO AND THEIR SHARES ARE IN TODAY'S TERMS WORTHLESS TOO CLOSED TO THE PRICE OF A SINGLE PEANUT.....

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 21:50 | 1900904 DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

 Ted Pistor:

L'OMS dans leur bon état d'esprit au sujet des cris PAPIER TOILETTE tout le temps?

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!