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So... What About Those Next 20 Days?
This is what happens when the market prices in $1+ trillion in loose money from the Chairman, and gets a sharp stick in the eye instead.
The VWAP algo attractor comes through in the clutch:
Curve inversion has begun:
Stocks plunge, commodities collapse, Morgan Stanley refutes facts presented by a fringe blog, gold and precious metals are liquidated as margin calls explode, dollar soars as every bank in Europe scrambles to get its hands on every Benjamin it can get, Treasurys surge to never before seen prices even as CDS of the underlying countries soars, and the DJIA posts the third biggest weekly drop in history (and the week is not even over yet)...
...And beneath it is all is the creeping realization that the Fed's most recent global bailout action with the ECB, the SNB, the BOJ and the BOE does not start for another 20 days, or October 12, 2011. That's right: three weeks in which there is nothing in place to provide the much critical trillions of dollar that every bank in the world so desperately needs. We wish Europe all the best in pretending for 20 days that it can survive on its own, even as Greece is about to become the riotcam's favorite destination once again.
... Oh yes, and Goldman is about to announce it was just stopped out on its 1.55 EURUSD "tactical" trade.
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You'll have to ask tmosely. That gem came from him a couple months ago. That among some other wacky bullshit like silver was supposed to be at $70 right now.
More lies, in this case taking an exasperated comment and pretending like it was a call, when in the very same thread I said that silver was likely to go down on high volatility.
Also, funny how you are so good at math. I first made that prediction in February. Hardly a "couple" of months ago.
Whatever
Paper prices will hit zero when the COMEX defaults on physical delivery, because no-one will want to be caught dead with unbacked paper. Instead, they will pile into physical silver and the idiots will look to other exchanges around the world that may or may not be just as corrupt.
When the COMEX declares that it can not make any deliveries, the price of physical silver will explode as industrial users buy every ounce off of the open market in a panic.
When does this happen tmosely?
In the year 3030?
Why don't you actually reply to Tmosley without some stupid sarcastic comment? Where is your rebuttal man! Sarcasm is not a rebuttal! Rebutt!
Nice avatar.
Anyone who attacks Tmosley's profession is a LOSER. Sadly there have been a few, and a few were proven to be the same sock puppet. Funny how they all claim he can't be working hard if he's on this site, while posting themselves. And they all attack his profession personally. I've seen this multiple times over many months now. WHAT THE FUCK DOES HIS VACCINE BUSINESS HAVE TO DO WITH ANYTHING.
Thanks for that. What my company does has nothing to do with my opinons here, beyond that fact that I am at least a reletively smart and capable person to be involved in such work. I like to talk about what I do because it is very exciting. Anyone would.
On a similar subject, the anti-cavity tooth coating that I developed (this one was me, personally) has now been shown to prevent plaque buildup in non-complient patients by 100% after 18 months, compared with the leading competative product, which reduces it only by some 88% (and falling fast--it's just a sealant, and the effect disappears once it breaks up). IE some of the kids didn't brush their teeth, but didn't suffer a single cavity. This was among all 120 in the trial (of which about ten percent were non-compliant).
Also note that the drugs we are working on are intended to be cures rather than vaccines. They don't work with the immune system, but rather that attack the targeted cells directly. Their small size makes them more efficient than antibodies. In ten years or so, once this has worked its way through the red tape, our tech will be hailed as a breakthrough more important than antibiotics, because it can be targeted to any type of cell or virus, and there is no mechanism for immunity (as the method of kill is oxidation of the membrane or protein coat for viruses).
That is, of course, assuming that our company and personel survive the coming economic collapse and/or I am able to save all of the data such that the products of the research will still be available in the next governmental/monetary regime.
Don't take it so personally. I think you are looking at it long term as the US path is not sustainable. I think Bob is a day trader and looking to short term profits. Just relax. I do love the fight club though.
Pardon me for interrupting a good fight, but isn't it wiser not to tell anyone to do anything? Nobody really knows diddly squat, though many think they do.
Because I was able to retire in my 30's and move on to something I really love, I often get asked for financial advice (plus for loans). The first thing I say is "sometimes you get lucky". I got lucky. I'll be the first to admit that, though it is tempting to say I'm just so damn clever. I made lots of small gains, then went all David Tepper for a couple of major moves. It might have turned out differently. I shudder to think.
The only advice I ever give is: the markets eventually discredit everyone who stays around too long or who actually thinks they know something. John Paulson comes to mind. So does Jimmy Cayne. Make your own decisions, but accept the consequences. Accept the fact that you are probably wrong, and pay attention if the market begins to tell you that. When you lose, it's not manipulation; it's your own fault.
Now back to your regularly scheduled Fight Club Death Match.
I thought you were a lucky fucker and now I know it for sure. You SOB. I am so jealous. I am stuck delivering the fucking mail.
A cold beer is a cold beer, and so long as you can afford it (or run a tab), it tastes just as good no matter the size of your stash. Enjoy yours!
Where I'm sitting today, your avatar costs sixty cents a mug. Take a couple of buddies and a combined twenty bucks, and you can solve all the world's problems in a few hours.
unless it actually is manipulation. It may indeed be your own fault for playing in a rigged game, but losing doesn't mean there's no anti-market forces at work.
When the market isn't allowed to function properly...well you can't really say that the market is determining the winners and losers.
Always appreciate your posts Bob_ .> +1 Yen
Yup, but it might be a buy at gold $1480 or gold $1200 also. Just a question of when to step in but all buys should look good over a several year time frame.
If you can't take the pain of seeing PMs rise without you, then you have to take the risk that there will be another push down on this remarkable opportunity for the central banks. I expect an up day tomorrow to lure the gold traders back into the market, followed by another ruthless attack to prove their point that gold and silver are in a "bubble."
I would stay in cash and allow it to rise far enough to ensure it is returning to trend. With this market, you could comfortably sit in cash for a month. It doesn't cost you a dime to miss a trade, future volatility is a given.
The central banks use at least two methods to beat your long gold trades:
1. Reverse logic. Anything that logically should help gold is guaranteed to provoke an attack. Ex: Currency interventions, options expiry, Fed announcements.
2. Greed: Long traders are rewarded so that the people sitting on the sidelines jump in just before an attack occurs. This week was a perfect example. Big gains preceeded the ruthless attack. To trade this market you have to be able to sit in cash sometimes and ignore other people winning.
Either the Fed gets it's butt in there now, or it will be getting it's butt in there with a much more painful TARP 2.0.
Europe will push you over the edge ... bitchez (well, we try hard at least ;)
Bernanke speaks to Congress Oct. 4th. All the guy has to do is hint at qe x to give this market the viagra treatment (another false stimulus).
Word.
Bernank is a complete puppet. He spend most of his day trying to fist his own asshole.
This is one hell of a sell-off. But quite notable that we did not break the August 9th low. And on lower volume.
I hope nobody sold anything during this. I would say the sell-off is near enough done, with little chance of going lower than the August 9th low.
confirmation bias much? wow, just wow.
I would say the sell-off is near enough done, with little chance of going lower than the August 9th low.
orly?? have you actually looked at any charts recently?? please, by all means, what do you see from a technical and/or fundamental perspective that indicates to you that this is over?? please be specific.
On the daily chart RSI is trending up starting from August to today.
The RSI is getting a bit oversold, as well as the MACD, as well as Stochastics.
Add to that, we are extremely far below the 200 dma.
Buy the fear Mate.
<Every market that isn't a US stock disagrees with you.
<BUY BUY BUY
We're going lower. And if we don't my hat is off to the PPT.
I obviously am a contrarian, no?
Morgan Stanley refutes facts presented by a fringe blog
Linky?
it should read 'attempted to refute'.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/morgan-stanleys-exposure-french-banks-60-greater-its-market-cap-and-more-half-its-book-value
What annoys me the most is the front running of the FED in the bonds . This is utter rubbish... If the Fed was not here to buy all this crap at the inflated levels , no way the free market would bid it up like this. Now we will get to see who gets lucky enough to unload on the FED...
Riot Dog quoted as describing these markets as "Ruff".
I love that deer picture. There's something about it that makes me all warm and fuzzy inside. lol
Me too. Thoughts of venison make me feel warm and fuzzy. Too bad for the deer, though. He is kinda cute.
1929 again
When do we get to toast the asses that buy stock speculatively just before the close? need to inculcate a new pavlovian response-reaction into them
dup
When do we get to toast the asses that buy stock speculatively just before the close? need to inculcate a new pavlovian response-reaction into them
“They get away with economic murder,” Schumer told reporters.
“We are fed up; we are not going to take it anymore.”
Schumer Joins Brown to Back Bill Combating China’s Weak Currency By William McQuillen
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-22...
Senators Charles Schumer of New York and Sherrod Brown of Ohio, both Democrats, urged support for legislation pushing China to raise the value of its currency as a way to stem U.S. job losses. “They get away with economic murder,” Schumer told reporters. “We are fed up; we are not going to take it anymore.”
Can Schumer distract the Sheeples from the Real Problem?
Since he is a major part of the real problem, yes he must.
and then you watch as everything in Walmart skyrockets in price. Walmart aint going to take a margin haircut, that's for sure.
It is either massive inflation or everyone that sells to Walmart is going to go belly up. Walmart's average real margin is 80%, don't let anyone try and tell you otherwise. If you have ever tried to sell a product to Walmart you know they leave you no room to make a dime. They tell you the retail price they want to sell it at and you better be able to give them 80 points or they will flat out tell you to find somewhere cheaper to produce your stuff.
That means if retail is $10 they will want to pay $2 and you need to make your profit out of that. If it costs you $1 to make in China and that goes to $2 then retail goes to $13 or higher because Walmart is not going to lose margin. It's either that or you go out of business and Walmart purchases your product direct from China to keep the retail price the same.
We could make everything in the United States and keep inflation in check. The only thing standing in the way are the obscene profit margins of retailers. Costco and Academy Sports are just about the only retailers left in America that work on less than 50% margin as a basis point. Yes there are exceptions like computers and electronics that have 30% margin or less but that is not the bulk of what people buy.
Almost always you are paying 4-5 times the actual cost of the item just because Walmart wants it to be that way. Retailers still make a lot of money on the 50% off clearance sales. If you see a product 75% off that just means they might be selling it at cost, but more likely they are still making 5%. Not a bad racket.
LOL not to mention the droves of people you must place in Bentonville Arkansas as a corporate office to deal with Wal Mart. That means usually a office building and everything else to service Wal mart.
“Senators Charles Schumer of New York and Sherrod Brown of Ohio, both Democrats, urged support for legislation pushing China to raise the value of its currency as a way to stem U.S. job losses.” What a joke!
The United States has lost an average of 50,000 manufacturing jobs per month since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. According to the U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. multinational corporations added 2.4 million new jobs overseas during the first decade of this century. But during that same time frame U.S. multinational corporations cut a total of 2.9 million jobs inside the United States…
Any keyboard can find them: resources of the world…unit cost, delivery costs, language translations for contract signing and payment. But no computer screen can reveal what happens to the huge breaches of human justice that can accompany the quiet key clicking by the captains of international trade as they jump national borders, ignore constitutional protections in countries such as the U.S., and deplete national treasure and wealth and spread injustice for individual workers and their communities in their wake. Case in point: this week’s letter in the Editor’s Mailbag of Eugene, Oregon’s, The Register-Guard.
Shipping Logs to China Is Wrong
Bob Jensen, North Bend, Oregon
My bet is that Shumer voted for NAFTA and CAFTA. What an asshole.
...And beneath it is all is the creeping realization that the Fed's most recent global bailout action with the ECB, the SNB, the BOJ and the BOE does not start for another 20 days, or October 12, 2011. That's right: three weeks in which there is nothing in place to provide the much critical trillions of dollar that every bank in the world so desperately needs.
I guess the plan is to string along the next 20 days with rumor bailouts "any second now"....until the 20 days are up?
The fun-loving kid in me would love to see S&P 600, but the grown-up realist in me thinks we'll see 1200 again sooner than later.
Like next week sooner than later.
Remember - it's end-of-month AND end-of-quarter next week.
Be prepared for the financial world and the rest of the universe to be saved over the weekend.
True, but did you notice they all closed with an up trend?
I bet if someone thought to short gold they would have made a lot of money.
Damn, I was really hoping to see a -500+ point close. DAMN YOU ALGO STICK SAVE!!!
Seriously 138 points up on the Dow in a half hour on this miserable day. I don't think it was short covering this time. It had the trademark jagged edge moves of a computer algorithm. Nice up down pattern. They just can't let the market have a 4% drop in one day, it might scare the sheeple. -500 just has that Armageddon feel to it, -391 is just an average day at the Dow office over the past few years.
So do we get a 500 point up day tomorrow just like August or do we finally get the selloff to end all selloffs. Netflix closed up for the day so a rally on Friday could be in the cards.
Today's action was all about taking down commodities, especially oil. You can't sell anybody on QE3 with oil already almost $90. What Bernanke doesn't quite get is that the price will go right back up with stocks (if they go back up). Worse yet, he doesn't seem to fathom that resources are finite and without exponential growth in available cheap resources the economy will flounder and contract. No amount of printing will change that fact.
“The Fed’s decision to “twist” the yield curve on government bonds to keep interest rates low upset the markets because it was not deemed enough of a stimulus to revive the economy.” – David Callaway, Marketwatch
As the Fed’s power to influence the real economy - except to provide additional torture - fades into the twilight of Keynesian government, each of the little pigs waiting for big momma to provide their daily meal has an opinion on why the crisis is getting worse. If Callaway and his pals operate as if the markets are dependent upon this system, they too will fail.
Planned economies, planned markets, planned systems of winners and losers, don’t work. The financial institutions and services that have become the dominant economic sector under Fed tutelage and favoritism these past 100 years, that took over the political systems with “savvy, foresight and malice” to fortify their power, are failing.
The main implied theme of the Fed’s report yesterday was that economic conditions are looking worse and that downside trends are continuing.
Fed watchers know this is a signal that things are going to get a lot worse. In reality, the world recession has been deepening all along, but it is only now that Bernanke is owning up to what he has misrepresented in his past predictions.
Bernanke is committing financial suicide. This is the beginning of the end. The Fed’s managed economic robbery of the world, picking the chosen winners at the expense of the chosen “losers,” is unraveling, losing control, failing each round, going deeper and deeper into financial mire.
The economy must be served or there will be political revolution. The economy is hitting the wall. Hitting the wall means there will be political adjustment - huge political adjustment.
Just catching up JR. We should talk. May Grey. I'm putting together a group from 2 years ago. if you are interested
hotfx@ymail.com My best to Sue Ellen.
I will continue to pick up quality miners on every dump. A little here and there to add to my core position.
I know I sound like a broken record here but JUST STAY OFF OF FREAKING MARGIN! I learned that in the abysmal year of 2000.
Can't short without margin...unless you do an inverse etf
I think he means, don't risk what you can't afford to lose entirely.
The genius of Benny and the gang is to achieve their agenda ( get your money and everything else ) while making it seem like they are helping you. At this point most are saying oh please Benny do something.. meanwhile they are dumping anything of value and are running to that( sarcasm on ) ultimate safe haven U.S. dollar and treasury IOU's.
Better believe bankstas are making money at every turn, especially the big ones as in today. Wait til they go after the bond. There will be screaming and gnashing of teeth in biblical proportions, while the bankstas methodically take and consolidate.
Brilliant really. Do yourself a favor and stop thinking Bernank and all are stupid, far from it; much more healthy for you to figure out how they work us.
What gets me about this whole pile of bankster shit is that subconsciously almost EVERYONE knows we're fucked. But none of them want to admit it.
I was talking about the economy to some friends in the pub after work. You can tell by their reactions to questions like, 'haven't you noticed the increase in the price of fuel, utilities and food?' that they have. But they do NOT, or will not, allow themselves to take that next step - rampant inflation is here, no matter what the government says. I even tried to explain that what we have is not increasing food / fuel / etc prices but in fact money that is worth less cos the UK govt has printed more. Eyes glaze over.
And, ALL of this is unnecessary. The UK, US, Germany, France, pretty much every developed country... can easily feed themselves without importing food. Variety may decrease a bit. I'll handle that (and, in fact, have an aquaponic garden going that is doing pretty well producing figs, olives, chillis, peppers and the like, so...).
So why don't we stop buying (and it'll only be temporarily, lets be fucking honest!) shit we don't need with money we don't have? Do some fucking maintenance on your car, instead of buying a new one, on credit, every 2 years! Grow stuff in your garden, window boxes or in tubs in your yard. You DO NOT NEED a 50" widescreen when you already have a 42" that you bought a year ago.
The ONLY motherfuckers that need continual growth, evidenced by continual debt-financed fiat spending are the elite. The rest of us DO NOT. So fuck 'em! Let them pick up the bill for the technological construction orgy that gave them the G650 and frigate-sized yachts and their mega-mansions.
/rant
If I have the money to buy something then I can buy it if I want to. People buying 50" flatscreens are not the problem. The BS stock market that people equate to wealth is the problem. Saying that a fuck like Zuckerburg is worth $10 billion because some idiotic venture capitalist inflated the worth of his bullshit corporation is the problem.
In the 1950s people like my grandfather bought a new car every other year. Let alone the new appliances and other things that gave us a roaring economy. He bought that stuff because he could since he made enough money to buy a home, pop out eight kids, and come home every day at 5:00 all while my grandmother stayed at home. Consumerism was and is not the problem, that is how the economy works.
However, it only works when the consumers are the ones building the products as well. Our problem is that because of Wall Street and the rise of the public corporation the jew bankers sold the sheeple the lie that you don't need to work a day to become a millionaire.
Ding ding, we have a winner! That's exactly the reasoned, measured, intelligent response I wanted!
Where you're correct is that as long as the consumer is also the producer, the system works just fine.
Where you're wrong is that we could only keep doing that so long as the rest of the world doesn't want the same. And it does. So we can't.
We (the US, Europe, etc) have only maintained our standard of living at the expense of the rest of the world. I personally don't have too much of a problem with that. We invented the shit and put up the money to develop it, so we're entitled to enjoy the fruits of our labour.
And THAT is my point! We're not entitled to want more at the expense of everybody else, just cos we've done it for the past 200 or so years. So we have to make a decision....
We limit our own growth in a reasoned and measured way, to allow the '3rd world' to catch up. And humanity goes on at a slower pace, but ultimately a better one for everyone.
Or... we start WWIII and wipe out the uppity nigger / paki / arab / chink / (supply your own racial slur here) to prop up our BS entitlemant empire for a few (and it would only be a few) years. Then we turn on each other, fighting over the resources that are left.
The NWO do have one thing absolutely right, if we're to continue as we are. We NEED massive depopulation.
Or, we can all accept that the standard of living we've got now (which, let's face it, isn't too fucking shabby!) can not continue to improve very quickly for the next 20-50 years. But again.. the only fuckers that NEED it to improve, so we'll carry on spending debt based fiat, are the oligarchs. And those fuckers measure their own standard of living (since they've already got wealth beyone the dreams of avarice) by how much LESS the rest of us have.
I call bullshit on that and think it's high time we took back our own lives.
You are both wrong. The US in and of itself is rich enough to make enough food for at least the American continent if not the world, and for every merkin to buy ten big screen TVs. The problem and the scourge is that every productive American DOES have to buy ten big screen TVs.
To wit-
Though he only wants one, each time he goes to buy one he is actually forced to buy 10. What does that mena? One for him, one for the (let's say 'accountant') who plundered his paycheck for the syndicate, one for the cop in line in front of him, one for the welfare entrepeneur in line behind him, one for some (let's just say 'merc' let's just say 'working' in afgan), one for the one in Iraq, one for the alphabet guy shipping guns to the cartel del golfo, one each for the president of the IMF, world bank, and one for each mistress respectively.
Actually it's 20 when you repeat the above for the counterpart in that country with which we have a "Special Relationship."
So the point is that the average taxpayer is so completely plundered by free-riders, parasites, con artists (oh I forgot-- one for Jesse Jackson as he shakes down another company for his personal flat screen)--it's as if there are 20 people in his house that he is forced at the point of a gun by his "own" governmente to support feed pay and arm. The only difference between us and Bahrain is that Saudi troops aren't mowing us down in the streets. Yet.
I greened you, despite the 'joos' comment at the end. They're no worse (or better!) than any of the rest of us. We all want to fuck the next door neighbour, financially, to improve our own lot in life, so we don't have to work so hard ourselves. All of us do. Break it down to basic territoriality, leavened by intelligence. We have a genetic imperative to breed. We therefore have a genetic imperative to fuck up the next guy, so he can't, cos we'd rather like to fuck his bitch too. And preferably his sister. Maybe even his mom, too, if she's a cougar / MILF type.
emerging markets bitchez. breeheehee!!
Been busy today, Mr. Saw? I like.
Everything on the Bloomberg Commodity screen closed deep in the red. First time I’ve seen that in a while. This morning only Cocoa was slightly positive, but, I guess even Cramer wasn’t dumb enough to try spinning that into a positive strategy, (“It’s all about Cocoa man; Cocoa is the new Gold”). Alas, even Cocoa was down for the final count.
What do you do when you don’t have enough cash to BATFD (buy ALL the f$@king dips)? Help me Suze Orman, help me please.
If I can get a high enough limit on this Citibank offer for 21 months no interest I may be able to buy the entire paper silver market and demand delivery!
I have been waiting for the deer in the headlights picture!
There was a guy on CNBC...after the close..and he was saying gold will be sold off because of window dressing...the regular stocks have dropped so much that the funds will sell thier gold to make a better quarter......now I was thinking to myself...how stupid is that....sell the long term safe holding that your clients so desperatly need more of in these times..to make your quarter look better....screw your clients...just go for the bonus I guess....that my folks is why I have...and will buy more gold and silver...these idiots can´t fabricate it with an IPO....it is what it is...
I just happened to be listening to George Carlin when I read your post
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7f0GStBCeUU&feature=related
Asshats on Wall st. are gonna get what they deserve, but being a spectator is getting harder every day.
I will lament George's death till the day I die.
Nice avatar who is it?
probably Max Headroom
I was talking about that creepy looking dude from youngman.
Marc Faber says Bernanke did the right thing.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vyQwX3arbww&feature=player_embedded
Comay Mierda:
"the right thing would have been if he whipped out a bag of steaming shit and smashed it in his face" - that would merit a Noble Prize in Economics and perhaps the true recovery could begin...
What Faber said was the decision not to add more stimulous was the best decision Bernanke's made so far - not neccesarily a resounding endorsement considering the actions of our beloved Fed Chairman to date.
Good vid though. Thx.
Love the comment on Greece (proving that more swear words in reporting adds flavor).
100 million Chinese are waiting to buy any gold you want to sell, one gram at a time
That deer never gets old...
Anyone know bob_dabolina's website address? He spoke about it in this thread but never stopped to mention its URL. Would be nice to read his trade diary.
http://tradeonfire.blogspot.com/
So what, you have two identities so you can spam your blog on this site?
Nice work Bob. You have no class whatsoever.
A little off topic but remember the ZH post from a few days regarding HFT algorithms exceeding the speed of light (http://bit.ly/okXQUZ) ... well announced today: Speed of Light broken by Scientists
Coincidence? I think not!
You added 2 plus 2 and got 4!
NO BLACK FRIDAY...Next week and be patient
Don't worry, middle class. It will be over soon and we'll have all your money. Don't pine away for what you had. As long as you believed the lies, it was never yours to begin with.
Get used to the new normal. And cheer up. It's time to start thinking about how to prepare your great-grandchildren for the next time. Too late for this time.
i'm confused. should i btfd now or wait for three weeks?
please help.
ps. i could not resist tfd. oops.
p
Well if You're confused better SOYFH (sit on your fucking hands)... Cuz this might be TFD or TFP (the fucking plunge)... I dont know yet...
"Well you know you're gonna see price action. A lot hinges on the next couple days. Big moves like the past few days can have a lot of impact on who is looking to buy and who's forced to sell. So it's too early to say we're going higher or we're going lower without seeing some more activity. Personally what I'd prefer to see would be consolidation and some sideways action for a few days. Sometimes the market needs to take a breather, and that's a good chance to look around at different price levels that are going to matter. So if we spend the next two or three days bouncing around the current levels, I'm sure it'll be a better time to decide whether we're going to see a strong push up, in price, or a continued drop."
(Can I get on teevee with this? Or at least radio?)