This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

"So What Can Go Wrong"

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Despite economic miss after miss, the momentum players in the market continue unfazed, dodectupling down on Bernanke Put Double Zero, pushing stocks to new highs simply on continued hopes that something in Europe may have changed with Merkel's so-called defeat last week, even as Merkel's key CSU coalition partners voiced an open threat earlier today to no longer support Eurozone aid if there is no conditionality - supposedly Mario Monti's biggest victory (ignoring that the German constitutional court is also faced with a barrage of demands to undo the ESM), and on hopes that tomorrow the ECB will announce something more drastic than the now widely expected 25 basis point cut. In other words a hope rally, even as bonds, and FX have now diverged dramatically with the hope gripping the global stock market. And hope is good, however if it becomes an investing "strategy" total loss is virtually guaranteed. That said, perhaps for the first time ever, bonds are wrong, and stocks are right, and all the bad news has been priced in (unlike all those other times when everyone said the same, and when everyone was certain they would sell first ahead of the herd). Which brings us to the question that Citi's Steven Englander has just asked himself: "So what can go wrong?" Here is his answer (in five parts).

  1. Finland and the Netherlands seem to be saying that they will not approve the use of EFSF or ESM funds in the secondary market. Finland also wants collateral on any loans to Spanish banks
  2. The line-up of countries seeking similar terms to Italy and Spain keeps growing
  3. IMF’s Lagarde says with respect to Greece “I am not in a negotiation or renegotiation mood at all
  4. Investors seem increasingly to be counting on ECB action beyond the policy/deposit rates to ease the soveregin debt market
  5. There is a gap between indicators of economic conditions and market appetite for risk. The average of US, China and euro zone economic surprises is at its lowest level ever, other than in the immediate aftermath of the Lehman bankruptcy (see Figure 1 below).  investors either believe additional stimulus will be coming or that positive sentiment is right and economic data are wrong. Additional stimulus means the Fed doing QE3, the ECB doing something more effective than cutting short-term rates and China taking a much more aggressive policy stance than it has so far. It is possible but there are hurdles, especially if the policy tools are not as potent as they were earlier in the rebound.

And while we have discussed four of the five topics above previously, #4 is still open, and will be fully answered early tomorrow when the US is sleeping during its national holiday. Here is what Englander thinks will happen:

ECB – What is enough?

 

The strong expectation in markets is that the ECB will do a refit cut and some reduction in deposit rates, but if this is all they do we think investors will walk away disappointed and sell the euro.

 

Our economists are expecting the ECB to cut the refi rate by 25 bps and move the deposit rate down to 10bps.The Bloomberg consensus has 46 forecasters expecting a refi move to 75bps, 5  to 50bps and 11 staying flat at 100bps. Of the forecasts time-stamped after the summit 30 expect a move to 75bps, 1 to 50bps and 6 for the ECB to stay flat. Money market rates have come down both since the Summit and over the last month but the moves have been modest, reflecting the low effective overnight EONIA rate (around 34bps) that have been in place for some months (Figure 1).  So while the BBG forecasts may point to a slightly more hawkish post-Summit distribution of outcomes, we would go with the market pricing that points to some further easing.

 

The tightening of euro zone GDP-weighted average CDS (SOVCDS) and run-up in euro zone bank stocks (SX&E) also point to a continuation of the post-Summit optimism (Figure 2). If anything, the EUR is lagging the tightening of CDS and the bank stock gains.

 

With effective rates trading well below the policy rate it is very difficult to gauge exactly what the market is expecting from the ECB. Clearly the cut to 75bps is a strong consensus view and there probably is some deposit rate cut also expected. In practice these would amount to little more than showing the flag – were the euro zone’s sovereign debt issues solvable via policy rate cuts, those would have been put in place long ago.

Finally for all those who say nothing bad can happen (in the now generic bipolar phase shift from two short weeks ago when the market could not catch a bid) all of a sudden, we leave you off with the following Englander quote referencing Coolidge, and his own post script.

Calvin Coolidge said  “If you see ten troubles coming down the road, you can be sure that nine will run into the ditch before they reach you.” and he was probably right but he didn’t give any advice on what to do about the tenth.

 


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Tue, 07/03/2012 - 19:55 | Link to Comment BarreraNorman70
BarreraNorman70's picture

+1

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 20:02 | Link to Comment The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Bonds were wrong in the fall of 2010. If you were loaded up on the long end, you got your ass handed to you.

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 06:55 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

.....and at least 2 junkers wished you hadn't brought that up.

 

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 20:17 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

THX Norm Barrera 70. "There's more where that came from" in these really, really, really bad times we're in.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 21:18 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Hey Ty it already went wrong. Very wrong. A long time ago. What we are experiencing is a once-in-a-genration centrally planned and global financial manipulation unlike anything ever before.  

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 22:39 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

it's all about "the rapid pace of technological change." Social media is at "its" epicenter...right here, right now. I think of it more as a "Jazz combo" where outcomes simply are not on the table...but "the score" sure is. (just look at the string of comments here...now plug it all into a financial formula and PRESTO...i can make a trading play and immediately try and make you lose. Not that i am doing that of course!) facial recognition software, GPS location devices, biometric scanners, etc..etc...all tucked away discreetly in your cell phone "waiting for you to do something." human behavior being highly normative "it makes everything seem manipulated" as if "part of some plan" but in fact you and i are being "run from a code" while just being "simple old you and me." By doing this "in bulk" in theory i could predict an enormous number of outcomes....ESPECIALLY financial outcomes...with a certain degree of accuracy...and then "merely look to improve up on that." Hence "the business cycle" meets "tomorrow's news today." What the folks aren't seeing are the OFF Wall Steet trader bashes. This is where there is no intersection of law and commerce. Trust me this is where the true "big money" hangs out.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 23:13 | Link to Comment The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Wait for an edge, i.e., either the bulls or bears are wiped out before setting up.

Or, you can just short without a stop, knowing you may incur severe losses before it turns around. The world has tipped into recession.

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 06:57 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

We're supporting the markets with hot QE cash......what could go wrong?

 

Relax......we can always print more.

 

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 03:07 | Link to Comment HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Fiat and finance allowed the largest debt super-cycle ever to occur.  There will be no more debt expansion.  We will only be allowed to service the existing debt at 5% or 6%.  If the interest rates go much higher, like to 20%, then there will be major cutbacks in business and government.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 19:58 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

Think it through then trade the opposite. Bipolar trading

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 20:06 | Link to Comment The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

True. If it made sense, kids would do it.

That said, I saw a CNBC article where an asset manager was tying the near 50/50 stock and bond allocation to a contrarian bull call.

Maybe this guy missed reviewing asset allocation in Japan. What a fucking idiot.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 20:01 | Link to Comment cossack55
cossack55's picture

Whats a Calvin Coolidge?

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 06:59 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

A genius MF that stopped the 1920's depression dead in it's tracks.

 

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 20:04 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Another rumor should be more than sufficient.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 20:05 | Link to Comment Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

The charity negotiations for Greece are subject to Lagarde's mood...

hahahaha HAHAHAHAH

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 21:10 | Link to Comment BanksterSlayer
BanksterSlayer's picture

Just think if DSK has said something like that. Maybe Christine just needs about two pounds of swiss chocolate and wine, French of course.

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 07:10 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

The EU is now fueled on estrogen power........expect water retention and much bitchiness.

 

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 07:44 | Link to Comment overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

downside protection seems only prudent..that's one big shoe swinging over the markets, ready to drop..the mixed messages from the MSM and .gov can make one go hmmm, what is it they are keeping off the net and MSM?

crop failure d/t heat? war w Iran, turkey, syria? china neg?EU dying?the big one is the fracturing of USA as obuma spreads his lincoln like suppresion of states rights and posts citizen against citizen, health care , immigration, HSA, TSA, now reports HSA considers those who value liberty as terrorists in waiting. rampant criminal activity from wall street to k street goes w/o arrests and trials.

I am staying short here, taking a loss, but it feels ok as I see Fear in the eyes of our leaders in gov and MSM.

the bet is they are not smart enough to keep all the plates spinning.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 20:09 | Link to Comment grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

The hope-laden 2 up leg is needed to setup the 3 of 3 down. Be careful in the S&P 1380-1420 range. If you bought the dip a few weeks ago, the next few days may be a good time to consider taking some profits.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 20:16 | Link to Comment The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Agreed. Sell longs on the rip just in case of accident. Over 1400 were picking up pennies in front of the steamroller.

Squeeze every single point out of the bulls though before going short.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 21:25 | Link to Comment trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

Lulz, i bailed on the PMI contraction print........ 

last year if i recall that was the trigger for the july sell-off................................

......or was it something else?

 

 

 

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 20:15 | Link to Comment Mark123
Mark123's picture

This world is becoming like "Waiting for Godot"....waiting endlessly and in vain for the arrival of sanity.....

 

I hated that play in high school....I like this banker's world even less.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 20:22 | Link to Comment Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

Or like "Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead." Sure must feel nice to be a banker and always toss heads...

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 20:16 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

i can see Merkel cracking, or Ben unleashing massive qe and the dow running to 17,000. people on here will scream inflation and the media will scream who gives a shit look how great stocks were as an inflation hedge. the people who don't have enough in stocks will be screwed and left behind.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 21:20 | Link to Comment Ropingdown
Ropingdown's picture

Merkel can't crack all on her own. The Constitutional Court and legislature have to go along.  Perhap these could be called the PPT also, with a slightly different first P than we expect.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 21:27 | Link to Comment trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

Merkel cracking and Ben unleashing massive QE just for the sake of it???   PIIGS will fly first

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 21:33 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

the nfp and gdp are damn close to going negative

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 23:07 | Link to Comment The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

They are already lightly negative, as you will find put a year from now. Not a big problem if recovery was immediate, but not happening.

Life lessons are a bitch.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 22:52 | Link to Comment HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Because of LIBOR scandal all interest rates will now rise (naturally) to reflect the real inflation rate.

Then there will be no more printing because there will be no way to pay for the existing $1000T debt.

Or if there is more (new) printing...then we will have (inflation)2  or ...pretty soon (inflation)inflation....or massive hyper-inflation.

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 00:52 | Link to Comment Plymster
Plymster's picture

Ben seemed pretty hesitant to print at the last FOMC meeting.  People were haranguing him about the Fed not doing enough to keep the recovery going.  Stocks are higher now than they were then, and market data is coming in even worse.

I think the world's printers are done (but I could be wrong).  And the Lieborgate scandal is hitting the same time everyone fled the industry.  I think (hope) the endgame is finally upon us after 4 long years of assfuckery.

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 04:10 | Link to Comment Nachdenken
Nachdenken's picture

hey are already airborne - on debt and deficit.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 20:18 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

FYI Spain bonds were down a few basis points today in yield after being up Monday.  Remains 6.3ish%, down only about 0.5% in yield from the big event last week.  

Is a 6.3% borrowing cost really going to be all that more tolerable than 6.85% for a fiscal budget?

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 20:22 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

if you need to borrow 100 billion...next week...the answer is "yes." the question of course is "we'll never know, will we?" and of course the answer as well is "yes." or is it (insert evil laugh here)"yyyyyyyyes."

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 22:54 | Link to Comment HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

$100B next week at 6%...yes.

$100B next year at 16%...no.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 20:23 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 What can go wrong?  You asked and I delivered!   " Meteor Shit" circa 1982...

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 20:29 | Link to Comment Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Calvin Coolege was better than Herbert Hoover and FDR.

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 08:30 | Link to Comment stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Then Calvin should be on the head of a dime...not FDR.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 20:43 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

A snap back rally due to the EU insanity i.e Rompuy's last week, the nut-case even said he hoped the market would like what the EU summit scribbled down. On top of the EU stock market rally, fudged government stats have coming flowing up, on cue, like start of the year rally when there was a plethora of positive PMIs. Market has broken the June 20th highs, ECB will cut and print, stocks will start to become overbought. Asia is the one too watch for selling prior to Europe and American markets, was the cue for the last correction, will be again - maybe a crash this time, if something goes off in India/China/HK or middle east. USD is now selling, Asian's will buy on dips. Should cap stocks. We could be looking at the last gasp rally for 2012, ranges looking tight and volume is still low.

And then there is the oil price that the Germans and French just love...once the ECB lose control of the EUR while trying to print and hold down the PIIGS 10yrs.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 21:15 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Chump this shit started when China posted slightly better PPi #'s. The HSBC Flash (real) #'s sucked ass,but of course the "Peoples Republic of Junk Stats" ,  beefed it up officially!

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 21:21 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

You are on the money Yen, you are a good trader...

Yeah Jan 1st 2012 when China fudged the PMI, set markets alight IMO. Then Asia corrected, sent Europe/US markets down.  We are in that fudge cycle phase again, but it's the last gasp.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 22:07 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Chump aud flows smacked me hard in May. I took a refresher course in ECON. 101

  I think aud will be .9400 to usd by years end. It should be in the 80's , but it has some safe haven B.S.( status) in a country of 23 million!

   Like the Swiss sans the Watches and Chocolate. In any case enjoy, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purchasing_power_parity

  Every time the aud strengthens the Aussies get killed on labor costs! They are net exporters, and their #2 business is tourism.

Dead in the water from the high F/X rates!

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 22:13 | Link to Comment CCanuck
CCanuck's picture

Do you think the same about CDN $, similar pop, and resource export based economy?

I do not know much about FX, trying to learn sumthin on the boards.

Thanks in advance.

Cc.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 22:20 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Do you mean cad/usd? If so, I think cad is oversold, just like its southern neighbor. I trade cad/usd in a similar way to gbp/usd.

   I like to trade them against the euro, indirectly. When you divide the crosses, many currencies should be much lower, in relation to the (DXY).

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 22:32 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

What I know about Australia is this, their government is obsessed with safe haven flows to support and underwrite their housing bubble, Canada is the same.  So their bonds/AUD are bid.  Risky short that killed me a year or so back.  So far their stats have been fudged from GDP through to employment and now retail (just released).  Then only thing they can't BS on is the national account deficit, if they do a rating agency will come sniffing around.  It will be huge.  The AUD (futures) trades almost point for point with the S&P500.  Good correlation.  But yeah an over bought currency like the AUD would be killing their economy (retail, manufacturing, tourism, debt laden miners etc etc) , but it's offset with bond selling and gov RMBS buyups etc.

Australia will get slammed when China drops it's guts.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 23:31 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Hey Chump?----?   We Should mine the " HELL" out of Australia! Then we can tax it!

   Chump I can't find any solid correlation between " AUD and wti/brent , xau, xag, natgas, spx, euro/selloff ect..."

 That buggar runs until it's done. I say it's about done. Ask the EBS dealers?

   There is a nice shooting star on the 4-hour chart. aud/usd      Aud/10y     Looks a bit yoked to me? I think you can figure it out.

 

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 00:12 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Like the USTs, Aust 10yr yield looks collapsed on safe haven flows, which would indicate that the OIS bond swap market is pricing rate cuts in Aus, but the AUD is bid.  Smells like a manipulated spread via government i,e fudged stats to keep bonds bid.  Problem is they are keeping the AUD bid at the same time.  Correlation is out of whack for those two, either way both the 10yr and AUD are bubbles.  They will blow at the same time.  Till then.

AUD gauge is good for topped markets, just blew out the June 20th top (All markets). Stock rally has some more legs

Oil. 95-100 for a topped range (stocks) on companies/countries worrying about oil inflation.

Gold is perfect on USD selling and war/tensions.  i am thinking that Iran could do somthing pretty tense soon, get Israel fired up.  Turkey/Syria go to war (very possible).  That happens, stocks/EZ bonds wil be sold to hell, gold/USD/USTs will be bought.

Interesting times.

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 01:00 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Well that was certainly "enlightening"   Shall I start with SWAPs?  The whack a mole "OIS" is Dr. Feel Good.

 XAU is perfectly oversold to the 38.2% Fibi.  Crude is in everlasting " CONTANGO" ,I'll target 75. ( lack of demand and refining) factored in.

   Last week Short Term "Federal Notes", had higher yields, and horrible "bid/cover" ratios.    I love Rick Santelli ! The man has BALLS!

     War tensions. Iran will continue to sell cheap light/sweet to China. Russia is opposed, but worried about sovereign issues.

   The markets are heavily overbought! June was/is last JULY!

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 01:43 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Santelli and Cashin, f*ck yes, old school traders. 

Good luck with your trades Yen, you are right market is overbought, USD bids are coming through. 

Big fan of Sake, although I drink Vodka with my sushi.

 

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 03:06 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 With Zero/Hedge!

   I lost a pilar of my family today!   I love you Grandmother, I was blessed with your  unconditional " smart ass" comemnts.

      Say hello to Grandpa!

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 08:32 | Link to Comment stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Those are the only two worth listening to on CNBC

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 23:35 | Link to Comment Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

Just be a little careful with the AUD. The country is doing well by comparision but when it moves and down it will be, you better have your finger on the trigger. Ive seen drops of 7% in an instant. dangerous ground

Hot money is hot because it moves at the speed of light

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 01:10 | Link to Comment amadeusb4
amadeusb4's picture

You mean like... http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SSEC&p=W&yr=7&mn=0&dy=0&id=p89687196010&a=269423316

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 20:43 | Link to Comment Albertarocks
Albertarocks's picture

"Calvin Coolidge said  “If you see ten troubles coming down the road, you can be sure that nine will run into the ditch before they reach you.” and he was probably right but he didn’t give any advice on what to do about the tenth."

 

That's easy.  Short the bitch :-)

http://www.doctorhormone.com/images/martin_with_panties_on_head.jpg

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 20:49 | Link to Comment partimer1
partimer1's picture

If anyone can predict what will happen, there will be no surprises.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 22:45 | Link to Comment The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

True. That's why, to the surprise of the bears, we retrace to 1415 - 1420 (with an allowance for an even harder upward stab), then the market tanks due to another global recession.

Perfect set up. Bears are wiped clean. Then no support on the downside.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 20:57 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Hilarious how people are sqealing about 6% interest rates when our rates were even higher in 2000 when the SPX was over 1500.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 21:24 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Robo ,once again you are a tool! You're probably paying Libor +4 on your studenT loans from 2000. The local " Liquor Barn" was probably your #1 debter.

  The premise of the thread, isn't about high interest rates. It's about the inability of banks to drop off the "TEETS" of ZIRP policy!

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 22:04 | Link to Comment bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

6% on $1b, not so bad. 6% on $1t, well, problem.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 22:13 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

10 basis points on 16 Trillion " ANAL DIALATION" Bad!  U.S. banks sell their bonds for 10-15 basis points from the Fed.

   Japan has the same problem. They are thinking about going negative interest on short dated " JGB's"...

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 22:40 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

its gonna be interesting when our govt is forced to pay 6 percent on its debt in the coming years....what is that in annual interest?? 800 billion?.........we shall see where the spx is then...................

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 23:01 | Link to Comment HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Worldwide its a $1000T debt market, at 6% its probably no supportable unless they go to hyper-CTRL-P speed or something like insanity speed...or ludicrous speed.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygE01sOhzz0

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 22:51 | Link to Comment The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

True. Then again, that argument cuts the other way for the vast majority of economic metrics.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 20:59 | Link to Comment Treeplanter
Treeplanter's picture

Betting on boxcars and snake eyes. 

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 21:08 | Link to Comment Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

Apologies for being OT, but ZH's very own Kito won the election in Mexico.

http://l1.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/cADetZLFt96iFj3smiFu7A--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld...

 

 

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 21:09 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

I repeat again.. 

 

Semi-Periphery States 

Did you miss the TV telling you about all the bullshit backlog forecasts with Boeing. If not, just read the Washington Post fluffing the airline market to the semi-periphery/periphery states. 

 

We're going to be rich bitches, just look how many planes we project. Just put a pillow over your head when MSM discusses labor issues. Those dumb ass traveling Muppets will flip the bill to finance our manufacturing cost to manage our labor force. Just a couple more TSA incidences should justify higher airline fees under our DHS (sugar daddy, carpet munching dike) revenue umbrella. 

Boeing predicts world market for 34,000 planes through 2031; strongest growth in Asia

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/industries/boeing-predicts-world-market-for-34000-planes-through-2031-strongest-growth-in-asia/2012/07/03/gJQAdoA8JW_story.html

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 21:13 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Banks get free credit.  You won't have a bank panic with free credit for banks.  No bank panic means no bank firesales.  That is how the stock market works.

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 01:39 | Link to Comment rufusbird
rufusbird's picture

If the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury really wanted to stimulate the US Economy, all they would have to do is give credit US Citizens a credit card with the same interest rate they offer to the Money Center Banks....Will that happen? ...When pigs fly....Rufusbird

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 21:42 | Link to Comment cognus
cognus's picture

First, I couldn't help but notice the competing headline upper right [great website design, btw.... ]  "Eurozone out of money"...  c'mon. Not 1%, not even 0.1% of peeps that find their way to this site would take such a moniker seriously.  There is no such thing in the West as "out of money".  The only matter in contention is "slow and steady" unsubstantiated monetary inflation vs "Punctuated" monetary inflation.  Sounds just like the manipulations of academia over global warming or evolutionary fables.

vast !  I take your comment as the most hopeful conjecture I have seen in awhile... if this is only for 1 generation, hooraayyy!

how would you support such an optimistic scenario?

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 21:47 | Link to Comment exartizo
exartizo's picture

It's flat out ridiculous to think that more QE is coming WITHOUT a major event to trigger it.

That's what the central banks are doing.

As long as they can spin the media, smooth or buy the markets, prevent or bury a verifiable documentable Black Swan event, refocus and recreate the mirage of economic normalcy endlessly, and extend and pretend Until The Cows Come Home...

They think they are going to win.

That's their strategy and they're sticking to it.

Yes, that's right. As long as they can continue to make things look like they are ok, then THINGS ARE OK.

So far, they have planned and executed their strategy with great precision, and have not left any "loose ends" that could blow up in their collective faces.

It's a lot like walking a tight rope.

I'm really curious to see how long they can get away with it before it does eventually blow up in their faces.

 

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 22:59 | Link to Comment The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

They can get away with it up to 1415 - 1420. That is the limit.

Bulls take note.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 21:53 | Link to Comment ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

Silver just broke through a major trendline to the upside, on heavy volume (321gold Stewart Thomson). It would appear the insiders have started front-running QE3.

 

Hussman sez we are most likely a 'single number of digit weeks away' from a substantial market loss.  Sez last week's 'exhaustion syndrome re-confirmation' is similar to groups of other similar periods where the following average annual loss = -47.5% S&P. 

 

The crash is coming soon, (weeks?) but Printing will again delay the eventual outcome.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 21:54 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 T/P on 1/2 and reload when the 200 hr gets tested on the downside. Good job by the way!

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 22:06 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Oh no, looks like Asia is topping out which means everyone else will too...sans mad Mario as he sends a wave of oil inflation around the globe all the while Chinese companies stockpile USDs.

Market rally good till next week. 

 

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 22:59 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 If ya want to get short commodity ( F/X) and sector trades, now is the APEX to do it!

    Tops have been put in , and the recent CHINA #'s came in soft!

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 22:09 | Link to Comment Itch
Itch's picture

There’s another saying, "There are at least 50 things that can go wrong with any attempted crime, and if you can spot just 10 of them, you're a master criminal". Conversely, if you can spot 10 things that can go right for the euro there's a job waiting for you in Brussels.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 22:27 | Link to Comment samttmfw
samttmfw's picture

Coolidge! Proud to be a Phi Gam

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 23:01 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Pull your Mushroom out and say something!   DIP SHIT MAXIMUS!

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 23:04 | Link to Comment Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

#4 is still open, and will be fully answered early tomorrow when the US is sleeping during its national holiday.

 

They're awake otherwise?

 

Algos On

Set the lights and Queue Obamny!

NO ONE mention Katie Holmes' independence on, uh, Independence Day.

Set Lasers..

 

Queueueuuuuuuuu Sharks..

and...

 

ACTION!! 

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 23:08 | Link to Comment Michelle
Michelle's picture

I postulate that the wealthy are still duking it out and only the very smart and/or strong hands will be the only ones left standing. Retail is gone and so the only wealth to steal is the wealthy stealing from the wealthy. Only when the loss of wealth by the once wealthy begins whining and demanding change will we see true reform. Until then, be stealthy.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 23:18 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I postulate, you're new to Z/H!  Welcome.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 23:21 | Link to Comment Michelle
Michelle's picture

Wrong....been here since darn near the beginning, before most of you.

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 00:58 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

I remember "Michelle" and "-Michelle-". but it's been so long since you posted.  I miss most of the oldtimers.

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 10:14 | Link to Comment Michelle
Michelle's picture

I haven't seen -Michelle- post forever....probably like me, I rarely post.

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 10:26 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

@Michelle

Glad you posted last night (and this morning).  Hope all is well.

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 01:10 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I stand corrected. It's nice to have you back Michelle.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 23:28 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

AAAaarrghhhghrrrghh!!!

 

 

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 01:08 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture
Happy 4th Slewie. Give a shout out to my Grandmother!   Betty passed away @ 3:39 p.m. (west coast usa) today!

                   We miss you Grandma!

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 23:44 | Link to Comment Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

whats up slewie, spit it up, good boy

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 02:18 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I'm going whack a mole! My Poppies are getting decimated by " Pocket Gophers"

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 04:19 | Link to Comment Nachdenken
Nachdenken's picture

Getting back to the Eurio, and with it severe contagion for the EU - the time of death is still unclear. The causes have, and are being well documented, here.

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 07:30 | Link to Comment rufusbird
rufusbird's picture

The current decline in interest rates is somewhat like the drop in the sea water level after the earthquake. Not everyone is alarmed but the older and wiser head for higher ground...Rufusbird

Wed, 07/04/2012 - 12:43 | Link to Comment janus
janus's picture

funny cal coolidge anecdote:

cool cal was a well known minimalist...at least when it came to speaking.  so, at a certain party, a lady of fashion approaches cal and says, "mr president, i have made a bet with an aquaintance that i can make you say more than three words.'

cal's muted and witty response, "you loose."

 

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!