This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

"So You Say You Want A Revolution" - The Real New Normal

Tyler Durden's picture





 

This month marks the 50th anniversary of Thomas Kuhn’s The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, one of the landmark philosophical texts of the last century.  The central thesis of the book is that science advances in fits and starts, clustered around the advent of new 'Paradigms' - a term that Kuhn introduced in the book and much of academia subsequently coopted as their own.  This was a novel thought for the times, since the conventional philosophy held that science advanced through the ages in plodding but rigorous steps.  Kuhn’s observation about science is equally applicable to capital markets, for the range of 'Paradigm shifts' underway goes a long way to explaining everything from why companies refuse to invest to why earnings multiples on U.S. stocks remain so low.  Today, in celebration of Kuhn’s opus, ConvergEx's Nick Colas offers up a list of the ‘Top 10 Paradigm Shifts’ currently underway.

 

Nick Colas, ConvergEx: So You Say You Want A Revolution

To those of us whose careers can now belly up to the bar and have a drink, the last +21 years of life interpreting the capital markets have seen remarkable change.  I managed to analyze the automotive sector for well over a decade in the 1990s/early 2000s without ever reading a speech given by a Federal Reserve chairman.  Now I review everything Chairman Bernanke says, no matter how trivial.  I was indoctrinated into the school of thought that U.S. equities return 8-11% annually, on average.  Now I blush at that laughable simplicity of the claim.  And many, many years ago, single stock research ruled the intellectual roost at virtually every asset manager with two nickels to rub together.  Now, between high correlations and supercomputers, most daily stock trading has little-to-no linkage to fundamental analysis.

One of the most influential books of the 20th century – Thomas Kuhn’s The Structure of Scientific Revolutions – celebrates its 50th anniversary this month, and there is much in this landmark text that helps explain how change occurs in complex human systems.  Since its initial publication, the book has become one of the most widely cited academic works in modern history and sold over 1 million copies.  Even 50 years on, Amazon currently has the anniversary edition listed at #12 in books about the philosophy of science and math and in the top 1,500 of all books currently for sale on the site.  I first read “Structure” in business school in an introductory strategy class and still have my dog eared copy on my bookshelf at home.

The message of Kuhn’s opus is simple: mankind’s scientific knowledge advances in fits and starts, centered on rival theories of how the world works.  These belief structures, which he called ‘Paradigms,” start life when existing theoretical models have run their course and no longer yield new insights. They are, at first, actually inferior at explaining the world around us versus their aged counterparts.  But with time, adherents to the new paradigm refine it to the point where it succeeds the old models.  Most activities that pass for “Science” actually do nothing more than try to prove the currently accepted “Paradigm.”  For mankind’s knowledge to advance materially, some renegade scientist must propose a “Paradigm shift” – a set of novel ideas which attempt to explain where the old model gets things wrong.  He or she may be initially shunned by the adherents of the old paradigm, but eventually they gather up followers interested in doing the research to prove the new models correct.

For me, this description also neatly describes how prevailing investment themes develop, mature, and then die in capital markets.  Granted, economics and stock market analysis are not as rigorously scientific as physics (Kuhn’s specialty), chemistry or other natural sciences.  The structure of how ideas become “Paradigms” is largely the same, however – as well as how those same notions eventually die off and get replaced by new ones.  In fact, what strikes me as most telling about the current investment climate is just how many “Paradigms” are currently in flux.

Here’s a quick “Top 10” style list of ideas which are undergoing noticeable change:

  1. U.S. equity market structure.  The Securities & Exchange Commission’s list of approved Alternative Trading Systems contains the names of dozens of venues where investors can buy or sell U.S. equities.  Keeping all these ATS’s in sync requires market participants who both put their own capital to work arbitraging price differences and spend the money to write computer code quick enough to beat the competition trying to do the same thing.  This structure is wildly different from that used before 1998, when the SEC formally approved the first regulations for these venues.  Old paradigm: Human traders at a few locations.  New Paradigm: Computerized systems coordinating many locations.
  2. Fragility of the global financial system.  While it may seem impossible in today’s world, the last +20 years have seen large institutions fail and markets whipsaw without it meaning financial Armageddon.  Remember the names Drexel Burnham and Lincoln Savings, or the date October 19, 1987?  If you don’t, it’s because the global financial system could absorb the shock seeing a major investment and/or commercial bank fail and a 22.6% one day decline in the stock market without wondering about the end of Western civilization.  Now, the market’s belief structure (“Paradigm”) seems to believe that the failure of any large institution is just the beginning of a long chain of falling dominos.  Old paradigm: smaller institutions, fewer common linkages.  New paradigm: large mission-critical institutions, intertwined by common ownership in similar financial assets.
  3. Reliance on political decision makers to maintain European currency union.  No one ever wondered if the French Franc or Italian Lira would survive.  Or the Drachma, for that matter.  Elected governments – or dictatorial ones, for that matter – were inextricably tied to their national currencies.  Now, the euro needs a friendly pat on the back from policymakers pretty much every day, or it goes off to sulk.  Old paradigm: single-country currencies, beholden to local fundamentals and political systems.  New paradigm: currency blocks, managed across multinational boundaries by unelected officials.
  4. Sustainable long term stock market returns.  About the same time I was reading “Structure,” I was also learning that U.S. stocks rose an average of 8-11% on a compounded basis over a 10-15 year time frame.  Since the year 2000, the S&P 500 has been to 1,500 twice, only to fall back again in the following years to 800 or below.  Investors of all stripes have taken notice, pulling almost $500 billion from U.S. stock mutual funds since 2007 and doing less trading of individual stocks.  Old paradigm: Buy and Hold.  New paradigm: Better safe than sorry.
  5. Exchange Traded Funds versus stocks.  While the belief in the U.S. stock market has taken a hit, ETFs continue to grow.  Some of the most successful launches over the past year are in low-volatility products, which buy stocks that exhibit below-average levels of price movement.  Dividend-oriented investing has also been popular.  Old paradigm: “Widows and orphan stocks” like utilities.  New paradigm: “Widows and orphans ETFs” like emerging market dividend products and a good “Min-vol” fund.
  6. How to perform single - stock research.  Twenty years ago, most public companies didn’t even do quarterly earnings conference calls.  You got the press release faxed to you, you called the investor relations rep or the chief financial officer, and prayed they would call you back that day.  If you wanted an annual report, the company would mail it to you.  Now, the Internet makes all this look silly, of course.  But it also means that getting an investment edge is all that much harder.  Old paradigm: Call the company, its competitors, its suppliers, the analysts that follow it, and go to trade shows and conferences.  New paradigm: let someone else do the work – just buy a diversified index.
  7. Volatility.  Wild and whippy action in stock markets is nothing new, and we didn’t need market structure problems to have a 22% one day crash in 1987.  The difference is that the S&P 500 still returned 6% in that year.  Now, volatility means the risk of losses that might take years to replace.  Old paradigm: Buy and hold. New paradigm: Buy the dips, sell the rallies.
  8. Substandard economic expansion.  From low consumer confidence to still-high unemployment to structural underemployment, the current U.S. economic “Recover” is extremely weak versus historical norms.  Old paradigm: +5% GDP growth for a year or two off the economic “Bottom.”  New paradigm: Recovery? What recovery?
  9. Unusual central bank policies and tools.  The job of a central banker used to be pretty simple.  Lower interest rates in a recession, increase them in a recovery.  Fight inflation by never letting your local economy overheat.  Now, you need to have a full-fledged fixed income desk and portfolio management system to track the billions – if not trillions of dollars/euros of bonds you need to buy in order to execute on your policy decisions.  Old paradigm: quiet, unknown central bankers toiling in relative obscurity.  New paradigm: central banker as rock-star hedge fund manager.
  10. Corporate reinvestment policies.  Used to be that well regarded growth companies all took great pains to expand their businesses. Maybe they integrated vertically, buying up customers or suppliers.  Or perhaps the company in question grew their international operations, launching their brand into large developed markets  high-growth emerging economies.  Now, most companies seem to have dividend/buybacks closer to the top of their lists.  Can you imagine the response most CEOs would get if they announced a new initiative to expand in Europe right now?  Old paradigm: winning companies reinvest and grow as quickly as is prudent.  New paradigm: slow and steady may not actually win the race, but it won’t likely get you fired, either.

The bottom line here is that a lot has changed in 20 years or so.  And it’s not just a few “Big” concepts; it’s practically everything from what makes for winning corporate strategy to how investors of all stripes consider basic asset allocation.  In the language of Kuhn’s opus, there are many “Paradigm shifts” all occurring at once.  That doesn’t necessary spell disaster.  But it does mean that a whole range of “Old” ideas are heading out the door as an equally expansive set of new paradigms are moving in and setting up shop.  Remember that new paradigms don’t often have as much to them as the old ideas they replace.  They are often actually inferior.  Over time they get their bearings, yes.  But the transition is rough.

 


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Mon, 08/20/2012 - 23:25 | Link to Comment LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

11.  Sole Growth Strategy -- Used to be build a better mouse trap.  Now it is build a factory in China, cut the salaries of everyone below executive VP level, fire any laborer who wants benefits (of any kind), open Cayman's office to avoid taxes, run fake news stories that mice hate your freedom, pay self giant bonus for brilliant corporate governance, contribute a few hundred grand to both candidates to ensure lack of prosecution for final step, and call Ben to find out when the market is going to peak and cash out/retire to spend more time with family.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 23:33 | Link to Comment I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

in the new economy will  SIN welfare be availabe?   alcohol, cigarettes and selective drugs will the government be giving out free credits for these?

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 23:42 | Link to Comment LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

To those who play by the rules, probably.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:08 | Link to Comment Dolar in a vortex
Dolar in a vortex's picture

Just a near useless comment to say that McCartney would have been the Barry Manilow of England if not for Lennon.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:17 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

And somehow he still manged to write Silly Love Songs.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:40 | Link to Comment LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

And at the Copa Cabana no less.   

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 03:06 | Link to Comment Dr Benway
Dr Benway's picture

New paradigm: Squid calamari octopus EVERYWHERE

 

I got fucking octopus coming out of my fucking ears man!

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZgE_sUrXFY

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:41 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

But if you go around carrying pictures of Chairman Mao....you ain't gonna make it with anyone anyhow - John Lennon.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqC_Gma221M

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 08:45 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Hey...don't junk me....kill John Lennon!!!!

 

Oh wait.....someone did.

 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 09:07 | Link to Comment WeAreJellyfish
Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:16 | Link to Comment Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

I like chicken.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:33 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Terrorist!!!

 

Were's the beef?

 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 06:22 | Link to Comment 4horse
4horse's picture

music'n'movies

havalaff

 

REVOLUTION will be televiv series

 

The Lasting Laugh cont'd right-in-your-fucking-face

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:29 | Link to Comment 4horse
4horse's picture

PARADIGM SHITZ
or, How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love The Bombast

Onomastics

which is the totally underwritten academic buncombe, bloviation and just plain keeping-you-BUSYNESS which- The Habitual Significance Of Existence: condemned to meaning, or, somebody's gotta do it, Sez Who -is what you get when you give monkeys words to play with . . .

psss__ U IZ BEING ROBBED

. . . only a very few grunts ever necessary when dividing-up the bananas

uh

uh uh

 

oh! no! master         Yes! We Have No Bananas?

 

cause__ U IS. BEING ROBBED!

 

effect__  club
        __  spear
        __  knife
        __ (s)word
        __  word(s)

Treaty PEACE! ie. bows'n'arrows v. gatling gun dumfux

         __  by contract killing
         __  BANKS
         __  by Lies
         __  by Law
         __  by gov't

by god, by golly and by g-ism, everywhere, Sesquipedalianism
                                                       supercalcafragmentaryreservebankstererosis
                                                                             
meaning,i say, me smarter than u, what?  pip pip
canons to the left of me
          __  communism
canons to the right of me
          __  capitailism
into the valley of debt
rode the 6hundred 6thousand  6million

YOU ARE BEING ROBBED!
                                           6billion   6trillion  1.6quadrillion
derivation: via French from Late Latin words, deraubare, of Germanic origin, from Common Germanic raub — "theft".
Robbery is the crime of taking or attempting to take something of value by force or threat of force or by putting the victim in fear. At common law, robbery is defined as taking the property of another, with the intent to permanently deprive the person of that property, by means of force or fear. Robbery differs from simple theft in its use of violence and intimidation.
Among the types of robbery are armed robbery involving use of a weapon and aggravated robbery involving use of a deadly weapon or something that appears to be a deadly weapon. Highway robbery or "mugging" takes place outside and in a public place such as a sidewalk, street, or parking lot.  Extortion is the threat to do something illegal, or the offer to not do something illegal, in the event that goods are not given, primarily using words instead of actions

words instead of actions
discuss. discuss amongst yourselves

words instead of actions
u-fem-isms u fuckin sisssies

further discuss, while
                  YOU ARE BEING ROBBED!!
                          by The PARADIGM SHITZ
CLUB                                                Rothschildt oppenheimer warburg seif schiff etc and et al.

IT'S A STICKUP!!
                            as u here further discuss disgust

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:43 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Dude....it's the markets. What did you expect?

 

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 23:47 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

When, after a lot of hand-wringing, Marijuana is legalized, that is the day the shark will have been jumped.

Legal Pot will mark a turning point in this paradigm business.

ori

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:45 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Is it legal in India?

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:49 | Link to Comment Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

No disrespect to my Indian friends, but in India it is actually legal to marry a dog.  No joke, search it.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 06:05 | Link to Comment Dubaibanker
Dubaibanker's picture

While it may have happened to ward off 'evil spirits' in superstitious India, where even the most beautiful woman in the world, a famous actress, having acted in Bollywood and Hollywood movies and the public face of various international brands married a tree, prior to the marriage with a human. 

But doesn't a marriage need to be between two consenting 'adults'?

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 09:52 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

How old was the tree?

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 14:19 | Link to Comment BigJim
BigJim's picture

dup

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 09:24 | Link to Comment tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

and once the turn is made and the cannabis genus is finally released from its shackles, it will be the forgotten sibling hemp that leads the way.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:12 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

good watch Keiser on gold silver:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycpCsQrr868&feature=player_embedded#!

 

 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:04 | Link to Comment Incubus
Incubus's picture

ah, fuck me.  I don't partake in any of those sins.

 

I just use profanity....and you pussies are too afraid of sounds and words, you motherfuckers.  Fuck you, and fuck you again. 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 06:49 | Link to Comment JoBob
JoBob's picture

Not something to be bragging about...

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 06:15 | Link to Comment wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

I think I need ...

"alcohol, cigarettes and selective drugs will the government be giving out free credits for these?"

We're already there...

These are being bought with EBT cards every day!

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 23:38 | Link to Comment reader2010
reader2010's picture

Or just hire Foxconn and let them work their slaves instead. Got AAPL?

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 23:54 | Link to Comment LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

AAPL is worth more than any other company on the planet because it figured out how to build a better mousetrap AND do all of the things outlined above (outsource, tax haven, etc).  Everyone else is just hiring Foxconn and wondering why their profit margin continues to shrink as their customers starve in the street.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:25 | Link to Comment Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Boy you're a drama queen.  They didn't figure out anything, AApl is worth more (for now) because of stolen technology.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:48 | Link to Comment LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Hold the presses.  Big corporation fucked little guy, stole technology, made giant profit, broke union, polluted something, paid off politicians, bought yacht.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:15 | Link to Comment Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

All created by State favored Capitalism.  In my Utopia, everyone is treated equally under the law.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:40 | Link to Comment NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Give me a 35' Catamaran, and I will show you the proper way to fleece a system. 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:57 | Link to Comment Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

I have one and will gladly let you have it since it's useless to me.  What would you do with it?

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 04:26 | Link to Comment Zwelgje
Zwelgje's picture

I would smuggle the produce of certain green plants from Holland to the rest of Europe, give to the poor and then sail around the world.

 

How can a beautiful concept like a catamaran be useless?!

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 09:59 | Link to Comment NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

At least someone understood what I was getting at. Piracy is the new futures market.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:50 | Link to Comment Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

So what do you think LTER.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 23:43 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

As a former English teacher, I just want to complement you for your sparkling voice. +50

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 02:33 | Link to Comment Intoxicologist
Intoxicologist's picture

That's very complimentary, Teach. 

Lol, just sayin'.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:02 | Link to Comment RestoreOurFuture
RestoreOurFuture's picture

 

 

One of the biggest changes in the past 20 or 30 years has been the role of the Federal Reserve in our markets.  Under the leadership of Greenspan, the Fed adopted a mandate of asset price protection, which was never part of its charter.  With a total leadership vacuum in 2008 as the subprime crisis morphed into a full blown financial panic, Bernanke and Paulson became the defacto leaders of this country and expanded the powers of the Federal Reserve and Treasury into institutions of omnipotence and impunity.  Starting with Greenspan and continuing with Bernanke, the Federal Reserve has become the market.      

It was NEVER suppose to bid up MBS prices. It was NEVER suppose to bid up the value of equities.  It was NEVER suppose to determine which banks get rescued and which are allowed to fail. It was NEVER suppose manipulate the yield curve to jump start the housing industry.  Etc. Etc. Etc.

All in all, the most meaningful paradigm shift in the last several decades has been the role and function of the Federal Reserve.  Period.

Aren't you ready for REAL change?

Romney/Ryan 2012   

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:29 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Fuck off and die. Romney/Ryan and Obama/Biden are a goddamn puppet show. 

I'll give you this, if you are getting paid, at least you are making an effort to be employed. Prostitution is more honest though. You know this in your heart.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:37 | Link to Comment Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

He's just another troll for the state.  Maybe it is you, Who knows?

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 08:43 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

If we were to uphold the constitution.....the states would actually be in charge again....of themselves that is.

 

Like anyone really gives a rats ass I suppose.

 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:09 | Link to Comment RestoreOurFuture
RestoreOurFuture's picture

 

 

Please refrain from using such deplorable, unlady-like language in the future.  I understand that politics is a sensitive subject, but, in order for a democracy to function properly, you need to learn to respect your opponents and engage in meaningful dialogue.  Attitudes like "Fuck off and die" are not what made this country the wonderful melting pot of ideas that it is.  

Anyway, I'm not going to engage in ad hominem attacks, so I'll just add to my previous post by saying that the Federal Reserve (beginning with Greenspan) decided that its goal was to fix the markets (asset prices), and that by fixing the markets, the economy as a whole would follow in tow.  Why do you think Greenspan was called the maestro?  Because of his ability to "conduct" the markets, manipulate and orchestrate them. This was a radical shift from the Volcker's Fed, were the greater economy took precedence over whatever might be good of the markets. The baton was passed from Greenspan to Bernanke seamlessly, which is why all actions by the Fed are "market driven" which then leads to predicatable results.... Wall Street is fine, while Main Street suffers.   

Again, THIS, is the single most important paradigm shift of our generation. No question. 

Are you ready for REAL change?

Romney/Ryan 2012

 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:14 | Link to Comment jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

Why do you think Greenspan was called the maestro?  Because of his ability to "conduct" the markets, manipulate and orchestrate them.

***********

Complete bullshit--Greenspan followed the market like a dog on a leash and here's the proof-look how the 10 yr had him pissing backwards-

http://bit.ly/s86T8y

Greenspan was a failure and so is Bernanke-

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:29 | Link to Comment RestoreOurFuture
RestoreOurFuture's picture

 

 

It didn't always work perfectly for him, but most of the time, he was very effective.  His response to the crash of 87, the Asian crisis of 97, LTCM and other "panics" in the market were widely praised. But that takes away from my greater point: the Fed's new role as a protectorate (Greenspan put) of asset prices, and how the needs of the market took precedence over the economy, as a whole.  This was a new paradigm which has developed over the last few decades of Fed policy.  Whether Greenspan "conducted" this well or not, was NOT the point.

Romney/Ryan 2012

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:35 | Link to Comment jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

(Greenspan put) of asset prices, and how the needs of the market took precedence over the economy, as a whole. 

************

Right--have you looked at real estate (asset) prices lately?

6 trillion gone to money heaven-great job

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:51 | Link to Comment RestoreOurFuture
RestoreOurFuture's picture

 

 

Why are you continually missing my point?

I'm NOT arguing the success or failure of this paradigm shift.  

I'm merely stating that Fed policy has clearly placed the success of the markets before the good of the greater economy. While this may seem obvious at first, it is a radical shift in Fed policy during our generation; hence, the paradigm shift conversation.  All the various acronyms worth trillions of dollars poured onto Wall Street during the past 4 years, while very little was given to Main Street during this recent crisis is PROOF that this paradigm shift has never been more entrenched in our government than now. This shift in Fed policy - beginning with Greenspan - is the single most important paradigm shift of the baby boomer generation. Period. 

Romney/Ryan 2012

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:54 | Link to Comment palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

You want a paradigm shift?

End the Fed.

Spare us all your retread revisionist re-formatted bullshit. It aint gonna fly. Now or ever.

Especially here...

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:58 | Link to Comment NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Because, you blaming the Fed mean's nothing. You are promoting one Statist BS artist over another.

 

You're lost son, and you better find yourself real quick. You might want to thicken up your skin a bit as well, because we do not play polite with pussies. If you're a bitch, many of us will freely point it out for you. The rest will just laugh and tick you down. This is ZeroHedge, not some panty waisted political blog where feeling's mean something, and your idea's are not open to criticism and open ridicule. If your idea's are shite, they are shite, everyone will gladly point it out for you. 

The days of us civil folks being polite have ended. I as well as many others are not Civil to the Statist Barbarians. We organized together and played your BS game, and you simple laughed at us and told us that we were kook's. You brought your BS Ponzi scheme to the limit and fucked with our lives, and now you're threatening us for speaking out with legislation like the Patriot Act and the NDAA. It's done it's over, the time to meet us in Civil action and polite mannerism is over, you Statist Barbarians burned that bridge. The ball is on your court now, we are waiting for you and your ilk to act or not act. Expect no kindness from us anymore. 

~Signed, The Remnant.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 02:06 | Link to Comment zhandax
zhandax's picture

r.e. 2722842;

I would respectfully disagree.  "Hey king george, Fuck off and die" is exactly what made this country the wonderful melting pot of ideas that it is.  Sometimes, there is no substitute for calling out bullshit.

As far as which puppet anyone wants in the White House next, possibly the best quote I have seen this month came from Mark McHugh today;  "No matter what color Kool-aid you prefer, a Harvard Law School graduate who wipes his ass with the constitution will occupy the White House  until 2016.   Any flavor difference you think you detect is artificial.  Neither party has any intention of balancing the budget or stopping the generational rape of America.  They exist only to give you the illusion of choice."

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 09:34 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Sometimes, there is no substitute for calling out bullshit.

 

You got that fukin right.

 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 03:04 | Link to Comment Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

BRO.  the goal of the troll is to type AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE.  Also, a perk is being funny.  Both of which YOU FUCKING FAILED AT.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 06:58 | Link to Comment Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

One, the ESF was created in 1937. Through the treasury, it has been intervening in markets for the FED on a regular basis. Two, operation twist (1951) Fed intervention to "protect assets". Three, gold manipulation and price setting since 1921. 

See a pattern here genius? Perhaps if you studied the actions of the FED over its' 100 year history, you would not bore us with your epiphanies.

Finally, what has this to do with Romney? You think he would change the system for all us numbnuts? HAHAGHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! What a rube.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:36 | Link to Comment Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

"the Fed's new role as a protectorate......."

 The entire Keynesian paradigm is failing in front of our eyes and we need a better model,...more Austrian leaning.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 04:56 | Link to Comment zerohedgeJUNKIE
zerohedgeJUNKIE's picture

No wonder Krugman won't debate Robert Murphy. He's still waiting though. http://krugmandebate.com/

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:53 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Happy one year b-day.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:38 | Link to Comment LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

@ RestoreOurFuture

Here's the problem your employers have:  Short term thinking, instant gratification, and micro-management - as opposed to long-term strategic planning/execution.

How can I know all this?  You are posting partisan bullshit, and your account was created eight fucking days ago. 

FYI, you have no "street cred" here. 

Besides being righteously pissed off at TPTB (which you are shilling for for), and rightly scornful of the false Left vs. Right bullshit, the audience here at ZH (and this is growing very quickly in the larger general audience) respects good ideas and logical thinking, based on history and the understanding of human nature.

There is a world-changing storm coming, and you morons are using 20th century tactics.

You assholes are so far out of your depth, it's pathetic.

But please, keep trying:  Lord knows you can use the money, and we can always use the entertainment.

 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:49 | Link to Comment NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Damn it, why'd you have to go ahead and point out the truth for him? It's so much more fun to troll him, and be able to laugh at him amongst ourselves. Especially about how outdated their tactic's as strategies for indoctrination are. Now they will have some think tank in the beltway workking on how to co-op us rather than the Tea Partier's this time. 

 

Well I guess that means we have to continue being open and honest pricks to each other to keep troll's and shills away. Hmm, I think I like that.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:25 | Link to Comment i-dog
i-dog's picture

Romney is a paradigm shift? ROFLMAO ... hahahaha ... <tears of laughter> ... stop it! ... you're cracking me up!!

Granted, Romney is a willing tool working for the new paradigm, as is Obomber. But the election is a farce and Washington DC is a charade.

Get lost with your electioneering spam!

Dumb fucking sheep!!

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:30 | Link to Comment AurorusBorealus
AurorusBorealus's picture

You bring the ad hominem attacks on by being a paid shill spouting political propaganda.  You are no different than those stupid internet peddlers claiming that their sister made $6000 last month from her computer selling Nikey shoes.  You are an asshole, and I'll gladly give you a cigar to shove wherever... intern.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 08:06 | Link to Comment machineh
machineh's picture

Well, my sister made $6000 last month from her computer posting spam for Romney. /sarc

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 09:37 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

My dog made twice as much with a Verizon smartphone on the top of the car screaming down the interstate doing 75 niles an hour.

 

No word if my dog paid taxes on any of that money.

 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 06:44 | Link to Comment awakening
awakening's picture

'Please refrain from using such deplorable, unlady-like language in the future.'

Please refrain from using such deplorable, sexist language in the future. I know women that would make half these comments angelic in comparison.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:12 | Link to Comment awakening
awakening's picture

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0137523/quotes "Tyler Durden: We're a generation of men raised by women. I'm wondering if another woman is really the answer we need."

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:01 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

Only if your ready to _uckin die.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 09:09 | Link to Comment Colonial Intent
Colonial Intent's picture

Jeez louise, at least read the fucking site before you post your drivel on it, if you is a troll you aint funny.

 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:18 | Link to Comment i-dog
i-dog's picture

Well said, Missy! Oromney and Mittbama are the old paradigm. However......the new paradigm is going to be most unpleasant for we [few] lovers of freedom.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:54 | Link to Comment AurorusBorealus
AurorusBorealus's picture

How much are you getting paid for this internship trolling websites?  Keep up the good work and you too could be Monica Lewinsky!

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:58 | Link to Comment Kassandra
Kassandra's picture

YOU again. Go away.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:22 | Link to Comment palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

MillionDollarBoner_/Ryan  2012

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:45 | Link to Comment NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

You seem lost here. Not sure how you guy's get lost on the Internet so esily, it's not like you have to read a map or anything.

 

To point out the obvious, the 2% yearly inflation has been around since the beginning. Just it's purpose has been redefined several times until it came to be for "Price Stability". It's obvious the stifling effect it had on innovation and the small business owner now. 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:16 | Link to Comment Revert_Back_to_...
Revert_Back_to_1792_Act's picture

The ants were happy until the great concrete disaster of 2002.

This video shows what an ant colony really looks like and it is amazing.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7VhvoMFn34

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVJuRgil0wQ

"It's not eating my flowers - at least not yet" - David Attenborough

pika = conies

Wonders past finding out.

http://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Proverbs%2030:24-28&version=KJV

 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:50 | Link to Comment palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

Great videos.  Thanks for the links.

When I think of the elites and ants I think of the Gary LArson cartoon with the silhouette of the fat kid and the magnifying glass, although the news suggests they may be up to something more nefarious...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/nature/16424096

As for the pika, Attenborough was lucky snow had not already fallen.  Otherwise they would have stripped his carcass clean in two minutes flat.

Sure they seem cute...nature's best camo

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 23:20 | Link to Comment duo
duo's picture

Old paradigm:  The government manages the economy.

New paradigm:  Large corporations control the economy.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 23:32 | Link to Comment Bear
Bear's picture

Old paradigm: Global bankers control the economy

New paradigm: Global bankers control the economy

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 23:38 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

old paradigm: You are a beautiful & unique snowflake

new paradigm: You are the all-singing, all-dancing, crap of the world

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 06:11 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Old silver dime: Better than paper fiat currency

New silver dime: doesn't exist yet but will be a true paradigm shift

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:03 | Link to Comment HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

Old paradigm: Criminal psychopaths steal from you and try to control you (they love a power trip)

New paradigm:  Criminal psychopaths steal from you and try to control you (they love a power trip)

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:10 | Link to Comment LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Old paradigm:  Global bankers [Rothschilds et al] control the economy, laugh at the sheeple who support them.  Many "freedom lovers" complain of the "death tax."  They see no problem with letting hundreds of billions of dollars pass from generation to generation, to the sons and daughters of oligarchs.  They say that their freedom will be reduced by taxing the estates of the wealthy.

New paradigm:  Global bankers [Rothschild et al] control the economy, thank the many who complain of the "death tax."  Laugh at the sheeple who support them.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 23:34 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Old paradigm: If you've got a business, you built that.

New Paradigm: If you've got a business, you didn't build that.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:09 | Link to Comment JohnKozac
JohnKozac's picture

Old paradigm: House prices fluctuate.

New Paradigm: House prices only go up.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:55 | Link to Comment WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

You must have missed the last 5 years.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 23:35 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

you meant to say large corporations control the governments that destroy the economy.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 23:26 | Link to Comment PSEUDOLOGOI
PSEUDOLOGOI's picture

old paradigm: Everyone strived to be number 1.

new paradigm: Everyone is told they are number 1.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 23:34 | Link to Comment LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

old paradigm:  There is a Building 7 made of steel that is quite sound and not made of cards.  We're number one!

new paradigm:  No one has heard of Building 7.  Buildings fall in their own footprint all the time for no reason, as if they are made of cards.  Freedoms are hated and the hatred of freedoms causes buildings to collapse in their own footprint... all the time, for no other reason.  We're number one!  Mission Accomplished.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:16 | Link to Comment gdogus erectus
gdogus erectus's picture

There's still 3 911 deniers on this site?

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:41 | Link to Comment LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Maybe, or maybe Rand's frequent forays into Socialistic rantings have gained him a few "fans".

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 23:36 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Old paradigm.... The illusion of free markets, and the prosecution of fraud.

New paradigm ....Open market manipulation and ass kissing the fraudsters at senate hearings.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:10 | Link to Comment Incubus
Incubus's picture

old paradigm:  people pretending to bullshit-make-believe psychological constructions called society

 

new paradigm:  see above

 

I think people need to accept the reality that all we're doing is fucking playing house on a planetary scale, maybe then we can proceed with something resembling "perspective."

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:01 | Link to Comment Slack Jack
Slack Jack's picture

So You Say You Want A Revolution?

Here is a totally new theory on the formation of the Earth.

It claims the Earth coalesced from the impact of two planets (well actually a planet and its large moon).

The two coalesced into one planet that we call Earth.

Continental drift is then explained as the original crust (mainly) on the other side of the planet breaking into large pieces during the collision and these pieces then being expanding apart (to todays positions).

The continents could be thought of as large ships on a molten/semi-molten sea (as the interior of the planet was melted by the collision).

Pangea (the original continent that mysteriously split apart) is just the non-impacted face of the planet. You can fit all todays continents together on a smaller planet (than Earth) so that they cover the whole surface except for a circular impact hole.

For more see; http://preearth.net

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:30 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

That really isn't a new theory at all. The planets formed from many small pieces smashing into each other. There may have been hundreds of proto planets in the early solar system, some got flung out, some abosrbed by the sun and gas giants.

There is the planetary impact believed to have created the Earth's moon.

Then you have the goldilocks zone reaching well into the orbit of Mars suring the early solar system, perhaps allowing Mars at least a billion years within a life sustaining disatnce from the sun. Time that would have been reset on Earth after the moon creating impact.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:49 | Link to Comment Slack Jack
Slack Jack's picture

 

It is a new theory, as it is used to explain continental drift.

This means that life was already on Earth and survived the collision.

The fact that the continents are still moving means that the collision must have happened within the last million years, or so.

The continents are still moving as the result of tension (from the collision) stored in the mantle rock.

Mantle rock can store tension for many thousands of years.

The ice caps (from the last ice age) depressed the mantle rock by hundreds of metres and even though the ice that caused this depression completely melted more than 10,000 years ago, the whole of Scandinavia is still rising today (this is called isostatic rebound).

Todays continents are still moving for much the same reason.

The tension (energy stored) in the mantle rock from the collision was much, much greater than the tension caused by the weight of the ice caps, so it will take a very long time for it to be released.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 02:12 | Link to Comment NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Sorry bro, hate to burst your bubble, but I was reading about that theory in the late 90's. There was even a whole documentary on the theory back then as well. 

 

Look to NOVA for the source of that Documentary. 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 06:46 | Link to Comment Slack Jack
Slack Jack's picture

To NidStyles: Sorry bro, but you talk crap.

Name the documentary,... oh can't do that,... oh well.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 10:03 | Link to Comment NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Yes, because I fucking remember the name of something I watched over 10 years ago. The theory is familiar, because I've seen work on it before. 

Aren't you just another cute little reatarded hipster lost and finding yourself here on ZH. 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 08:41 | Link to Comment Ljoot
Ljoot's picture

Is this bullish? I think it is. Yes.

 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:32 | Link to Comment Slack Jack
Slack Jack's picture

Here is an animated gif that shows the continents covering the face of the (original) planet except for a large circular impact hole.

http://preearth.net/impact-view.gif

 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:09 | Link to Comment PSEUDOLOGOI
PSEUDOLOGOI's picture

Since you are after new theories, go read up on "Expando Planet Model" too

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:06 | Link to Comment AurorusBorealus
AurorusBorealus's picture

Nick needs to go back and read his "dog-eared copy" of Kuhn again.  He does not get it.

A paradigm is not a model.  A paradigm is the practice and structure of a scientific field of endeavor: the whole of it, not a "model."  There is not a changing "paradigm" of various markets: ETFs, equities, bonds.  The paradigm is all of modern economics: its models, its data, its assumptions, its collection techniques (MMT, unemployment surveys, VAR, yield curves, etc.) these are all parts of the paradigm, not components of a model.  Models do determine what data is necessary; however, models are built from the techniques one has at hand to gather and present data.  A paradigm is the whole of the way in which people conduct the affairs of a science.

Paradigms do not collapse because some "rogue genius" creates a new paradigm from whole cloth.  Paradigms collapse because anomalous data... data which the paradigm cannot properly measure or present  (or recognize as relevant data) builds to such a point that the data cannot be ignored and then the paradigm collapses as a handful of people assemble a new paradigm that accounts for the anomalies.  (For example, the inability to demonstrate the existence of Ether and the behavior of light and high-speed particles collapsed Newtonian physics, whether or not Einstein had conjured up relativity.)

In our case, the anomalous data is economic.  The data is anomalous because the common measure of modern economics is money.  Our current monetary system does not function as a proper measure, because the money derives from debt-creation (and from the unique position of the USD as a reserve currency) and distorts the entire image produced by economics: the model, the facts, the methods used to accumulate the data. Unfortunately, the paradigm is the whole political-economy of the West, and the anomalous data is accruing whether or not we have a new paradigm, "theory," or "model" to explain it.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:17 | Link to Comment SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

question:

is "money is debt" and "sheeple are debt slaves" the old economic paradigm or the new one

and is "pomo = stock market" the old paradigm or the new one

and is "militarized peace officer" the old or the new

am forgetting some. like maybe "rehypothecating segregated accounts" and "interest rate swaps" and "gold leasing" and "currency swaps" 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:41 | Link to Comment AurorusBorealus
AurorusBorealus's picture

I fear that the old paradigm is "money is debt," and that as the paradigm collapses, the "militarized peace officer" will become a part and parcel of the new paradigm.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:21 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Okay, to sum up your post, he took liberties with Kuhn, and should have asserted that it was metaphor, not literal. I'm still willing to flow with it. A model for Kuhn is something that guides research. Is investing not a research process?

I think he did not clearly articulate what the new "paradigm" is (held loosely, metaphorically), but it is there. The possibility of HFT has changed everything, robot traders, algos, people need not be present to "trade" and make the "market." Strategy is now based on what will move the robots, not what moves people. As a result, feedback from the lived environment matters less in determining the direction of the stock market. Folks are gaming, not investing. If you are still trying to "invest" you are in the old paradigm, your research will be bad, you will be crushed. 

Next paradigm shift will occur when supply line failures and shortages occur. These will be the anomolies that don't fit the model. The environment will reassert itself. Fundamentals will matter. People will again need to rely on the facts. Only the bots will still be there and the gaming won't work. There will be a new synthesis that, if someone had the insight to know what that would look, feel, and live like, they would be very wealthy, and collect the next set of acolytes and technicians around themselves. 

I like Lyotard better than Kuhn for this. 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:25 | Link to Comment HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

Old paradigm:  The criminals who become rulers get witch doctors, and later get high priests, to pull the wool over the eyes of the public. It makes it easier to be a parasite on the sheeple.

New paradigm: The criminals who become rulers get economists and paid off politicians, to pull the wool over the eyes of the public. It makes it easier to be a parasite on the sheeple.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:31 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

They also own the media, but yeah...

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:40 | Link to Comment Quarky Gluon
Quarky Gluon's picture

I think a great numbers of different definitions of paradigm have been found in Kuhn's book.  But what I took from what I've read of it is that paradigms can range from giant all encompassing systems of thought to individual theories about one particular esoteric scientific sub-field.  And the revolutions occur not because of accumulation of anomalies but because the old guard of the dominant paradigm retires and a younger guard gathers sufficient political clout within the field to promote a new paradigm and takes the old guards place but with a new theory or paradigm.  And veering away from Kuhn's work, I believe Lakatos successfully demonstrated that, despite Popper's best efforts, there is no way to show with mathematical certainty that any given scientific belief has been refuted.  That is because no matter what the anomaly, there is always a ceteris paribus clause that can legitimately be used to defend a theory from any apparent refutation.  Ceteris paribus clauses can range from stating that 'the test equipment could be faulty' to 'there may be an unknown variable that was not controlled for but is influencing the results.'

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 23:45 | Link to Comment new game
new game's picture

old p: get rewarded for d.d.

new p: phy silver or gold or paid for land/re, some cash.

enjoy stress free life from manipulated, lied about and stolen (almost)everything that TPTB have fucked over...

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 23:45 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Virtually every (public) scientist can give the same answer to the goal of their research- publications and carreer advancement. It is extremely difficult to publish anything that significantly differs from the currently accepted paradigm. I'm somewhat surprised that any progress gets made in establishing new ways to view how the world works. Only the big established names can do it. It seems to me the opposite is happening in the financial markets. There would never be an HFT or TBTF in a peer reviewed system because of its stodgy nature. On second thought I may be off track. Only the big names can do it. I guess it's the same everywhere.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 23:56 | Link to Comment AurorusBorealus
AurorusBorealus's picture

Given the standards of current peer-review.  It is nearly impossible to present data anomolous to the establishment in most fields of human endeavor.  Keep in mind, however, that a paradigm does function (so long as it functions) to prevent quackery.  It does force a discipline upon human endeavor, so long as it functions to explain and manipulate the world.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:18 | Link to Comment Quarky Gluon
Quarky Gluon's picture

The dominant paradigm only succeeds at preventing what it labels as quackery.  But that begs the question; Does what is labeled as quackery do a better job at explaining and manipulating the world than the dominant paradigm?  And is the only reason that the so-called quackery does not become a dominant paradigm because the reigning paradigm is successful in leveraging its political might in the field and not because its epistemology is superior?  And is touting survival of peer-review and having a theory or paradigm be accepted by the scientific community anything more than resorting to a glorified form of the argument from authority?  I don't see how it could be anything more.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 23:56 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Old paradigm.... CNBC and main stream propoganda.

New paradigm....... Zero Hedge

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 23:59 | Link to Comment HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

There is nothing new under the sun

Just new forms of con game

They were shaving precious metal off coins, and sponsoring circuses to divert the masses many centuries ago

Nothing really new of significance - just the superficial surface look

and no new 'paradigm'

Doesn't anyone study history much outside their own lifetimes ?

 

 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:06 | Link to Comment SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

where can I get some free nike shoes

 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:10 | Link to Comment SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

 

spoiler --

old paradigm: beg borrow steal

new paradigm: give credit card and personal info to phishbot

 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:06 | Link to Comment JohnKozac
JohnKozac's picture

Are you trying to tell me with this "New Paradigm" stuff that house prices don't always go up?

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:09 | Link to Comment SafelyGraze
Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:28 | Link to Comment HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

Thats been substituted with a new paradigm:

Like before, property taxes always go up

Even though houses values may go down

Its a new paradigm

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:08 | Link to Comment reader2010
reader2010's picture

The new paradigm: WWIII

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:12 | Link to Comment savagegoose
savagegoose's picture

old paradigm: war is business

new paradigm: was is business.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:17 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

A pivotal point of Kuhn's book is that the prevalent paradigm, after a period of "exercise", becomes the flat earth paradigm - the only way things can be - until a new or better theory or reality takes hold.

Financial engineering and FED and other central bank interventions are the Flat Earth Theories of the 21st century.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:38 | Link to Comment HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

Youre assuming that the Fed's stated purposes (including stable prices and fullest employment) are their actual motivations - -

when there is plenty of evidence that their true purpose is to protect the banks that own them - and to lay off any losses on the American taxpayer

Somehow this is never mentioned when they show up at televised interviews

 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:35 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

Believed old paradigm: Individuals matter

New paradigm: Back to the old paradigm that only chosen individuals matter

The only thing that will change this, is cutting off the heads of the chosen that believe they matter.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:38 | Link to Comment dirtbagger
dirtbagger's picture

Old Paradigm

Them that's got shall get
Them that's not shall lose
So the Bible said and it still is news
   

   Billie Holiday / Arthur Herzog Jr.

New Paradigm

There isn't one

 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:05 | Link to Comment Plausible Denia...
Plausible Deniability's picture

With all due respect, we/I have been looking at this all wrong. Our metrics are right, our/tyler's analysis is right, our outcomes are right, but we are wrong right now. This economy, worldwide, is on life support and the technicals, as we see here daily, are awful and getting worse. But, for some reason, the markets and the world still have faith in the central banks which are the only thing keeping this market alive. Look at Spain, Greece, Italy etc etc...The markets have eyed 7% as the 38th paralell. 7%!!!!! That's insane!!!! 22% should threaten their solvency! Yet the rates ALWAYS pull back regardless of the data, albeit due to the ECB ponzi scheme. We keep focusing on Germany but we honestly think Germany doesn't realize the rehypothecation and central bank infusion game thats going on? We really think Germany is going to put its foot down and buck the 45 trillion GDP in other governments that are relying on it to keep the illusion going? Merkel and the rest of the German politicos will seem just obstinant enough to satisfy the increasingly westernized and idiotized electorate. Meanwhile, they are turning a blind eye to the banking system that purchases european sovereign debt, only to use said debt as collateral to access the LTRO once again. Our conclusions are right and this ship is going down, just not yet. There, for some God forsaken reason, is still faith in the central banks. While that remains the paradigm, money printing and currency illusion will win the day. I have been waiting for the collapse of the Yen, which should have happened years ago. I have realized that the weakening of the yen will be the harbinger of the reckoning, not a result of it. While the yen is in strong demad, which amazingly it still is, the markets will believe in the central bank religion. When the yen starts pulling back in a meaningful manor accompanied with a bull market, that will be our signal. We are early. I agree with 99% of everything written on this site. However, until the paradigm shifts, which its not even close to doing, we are wrong. This market will keep going up. A meaningfully weakening yen in a bull market will be our warning shot that the jig is up. Until then, lets make as much money as we can to protect ourselves against the unavoidable inflation that gold may or may not benefit from. As of today, I'm going long. I'm going long not because i believe in this market, or because i like stocks. I am going long because the market still trusts the CB's and they aren't even CLOSE to being done printing.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:13 | Link to Comment PSEUDOLOGOI
PSEUDOLOGOI's picture

explanation:

why do lemmings all jump?

why take your head out of the sand?  You might see/realize something.... ppl WILL not get out of their comfort zone untill they are thrown out of it.

there. there's your answer

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:18 | Link to Comment Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Just a suggestion: one, use paragraphs. Two, the Tylers rarely anaylze, they merely point out irregularities. The analysis is left to us and the trolls. 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:31 | Link to Comment Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Paradigm schmaradigm. Put some Stones on and let's get loaded.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 03:59 | Link to Comment Dr Benway
Dr Benway's picture

May I suggest a personal favourite, from Exile on Main Street

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHGUyh1RPwU

 

Let it loose

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 08:06 | Link to Comment Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Turn the knob to 11, drive a 16 penny in it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&feature=endscreen&v=LaMnoG5brY0

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:33 | Link to Comment BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

...new paradigm? Lol, I hear music. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wbvz00wFnY8 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 03:58 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

Paradigm change will come as its necessary at global level and necessity is the mother of invention! This system is now more and more unsustainable as the evil is systemic. 

But it will come from outside Pax Americana. As the core corruption emanates from this power system gone mad, which has multiple relays around the globe.

The first paradigm shift will be the neutralisation and slow demise of Pax Americana in its current form, set off by its own hubris, now manifest in financialised electronic fiat as it proliferates and corrupts all spheres of the real economy. When the God-greenback is devalued by those who worship it you know that lightning will fall soon.

The old saying was when the time lapse between the lightning shard in the sky and the thunderclap you hear is less than 10 seconds, you know that the storm is on you and not far away. If out in the open, run to a clear place! Never under a tree, and wrap yourself in fetal position to avoid attracting the bolt. 

We are now more and more in that ten second zone relative to the collapse of the fiat global system. Its going to be every man for himself if you have the assets to stay out in the open. Avoid both the lightning bolts and the rainstorm that drowns and grills people by numbers, especially the most fragile and delusioned ones. 

The Oligarchs don't want that to happen. Don't want people to quit the storm that feeds their power system. They love seeing people wallowing in pain as it comforts their role as providers of sham solutions, all the while they tighten the noose. The banks are their tools, the government now their stool pigeons.

Only the ire and determination of the people will allow a paradigm shift of enough magnitude to destroy the spider's web created and to clean out the shit accumulated. 

It will come from there where people are too desperate or too determined to lose their most precious attributes : their sense of survival, their memories of revival. 

Pax Americana is yours to upturn from within, if you have that political consciousness. And use the instruments of power inherent in the republic of "we the people".

Before it morphs further into open despotism even for its own people, as it has for those outside the empire since forty plus years. 

 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 08:14 | Link to Comment machineh
machineh's picture

Takeaway: "Friends don't let friends vote Depublicrat."

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 06:05 | Link to Comment m111ark
m111ark's picture

So, it's a Paradigm Shift ya' want!  Debt money is great as long as there's an expanding economy using ever more resources.  But when the sheeple can no borrow new money into existence, debt money becomes the anchor that sinks the ship.  What's a bankster to do???  Hey! how 'bout them asians, they can still borrow... so the game begins anew.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 06:23 | Link to Comment brodix
brodix's picture

There is a move to shift the paradigm in physics. One interesting example is:http://fqxi.org/community/forum/category/31418

 I think that the effort to find the Higgs has proven to be a climb up a lonely mountain and not a stairway to heaven of ever more exotic particles, will prove to be the apex of the current physics paradigm, as future physicists have nothing other to do than examine all the patches and reasons why these patches are necessary to the current model.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 06:44 | Link to Comment toomanyfakecons...
toomanyfakeconservatives's picture

Go ahead... laugh while you can at the prospect of MASS ARRESTS, Obama, Brenanke, Timmy G., and hundreds of other top traitors dressed in chains, the virtual dissolution of the federal government, the return of Treasury Notes, and a brighter future for mankind. Like most people, you will be little more than a spectator when these things come to pass.... http://tinyurl.com/cd5cyjo/

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 09:54 | Link to Comment Colonial Intent
Colonial Intent's picture

Much as it sounds nice this repetitive post is getting old (5 months old) got anything other than a single utoob vid from March this year to back it up?

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 06:54 | Link to Comment koaj
koaj's picture

its easy to grin

when your ship comes in

and youve got the stock market beat....

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 08:04 | Link to Comment WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

But the man worthwhile

is the man who can smile

when his shorts are too tight in the seat.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!