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So You Think Today's Columbus Day No Volume Squeeze Is Bad...

Tyler Durden's picture




 

No, it isn't 2008. It is a pale imitation. At least based on the Columbus Day (yes, bonds were closed then too) rally back in 2008 when the S&P soared by a ginormous 11%. Obviously what happened next was a roughly 40% plunge in stocks over the next several months. Suggesting the same could happen again would be preposterous: after all everyone knows Mars is willing and ready to bail out the world when the time come now that every single central bank is dodecatuple all in on preserving the status quo. Not for nothing, but even Greece recently ran out of ink...

Chart by John Lohman

 

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Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:00 | 1758538 Arkaenun
Arkaenun's picture

I hear Martians export atmosphere. Should be good for another 15T of untapped bailout funds.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:10 | 1758588 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

Seize Mars!!

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:29 | 1758704 dead hobo
dead hobo's picture

Oh hell no. Teach them how to invest. Then tell them about credit and how to use Martian leverage. Then get them to invest their capital  in a myriad of sure things on Earth using Other Martian's Money (OMM). Don't forget to instruct them about the sanctity of contracts, especially as it relates to their part of the bargain. Then thank them for their business, tell them to come again, and too bad if things didn't work out as expected. But they still have to pay up.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:40 | 1758738 hambone
Mon, 10/10/2011 - 18:51 | 1759321 smiler03
smiler03's picture

I think that you are seriously having too much faith in a chocolate bar.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:45 | 1758740 Smithovsky
Smithovsky's picture

October 2008 was scary times

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:48 | 1758789 hambone
hambone's picture

Fear not, the policy "professionals" are now in charge and have this handled.  Feel free to invest accordingly.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:01 | 1758542 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LULZ, what can you say? And pretty much everyone is convinced the bottom is in and here we go on a year melt-up fest! Good luck, suckers.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:45 | 1758759 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

I play basketball at 5pm daily with a 'trader' that never has a bad day, has the answer for everything, is loud and overbearing and that i easily dominate (though he doesnt realize it)  because his fundamentals stink.  BTW he drives a 2000 ford taurus w/ mismatched rims.   If he were shorter I'd think it was Cramer.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 16:37 | 1758980 d00daa
d00daa's picture

RobotTrader has no game!

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:02 | 1758550 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

After all, Mars is the bringer of war.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 16:46 | 1759009 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

...from London (oh the irony), The Hangee V ( for Vendetta) and the Martian Pyramid Stomp. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cPwgr49GK8M

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:04 | 1758552 GenX Investor
GenX Investor's picture

It's gonna be a white knuckler... bitchez.  The momentum is topping out on most indices, with bearish divergence.

 

TD - What happened after the 1982 Columbus Day?

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:05 | 1758562 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

What index, what time frame, what momentum indicator? Just want to see for myself thanks.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:19 | 1758639 GenX Investor
GenX Investor's picture

SOX 1 hour RSI

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 16:09 | 1758843 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

hope you held off on that trade

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:03 | 1758554 PicassoInActions
PicassoInActions's picture

so tomorrow we can short the euro? or should we wait...?

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:04 | 1758559 Sequitur
Sequitur's picture

Screw this bullshit. Already sold my SPY puts at a profit before this latest rally. Still holding LNKD and CRM puts, two of the biggest POS cos. on the planet. P/Es of 400+, what a joke this market is.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:10 | 1758591 jdelano
jdelano's picture

snds like you're in perfect shape to buy some new SPY puts today--you should be in a great mood about this joke market, relax seq, you're gonna crush it....

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:35 | 1758730 Sequitur
Sequitur's picture

Well would be nice if you are right. But I don't have any SPY puts, but you got me thinking about picking up some more. Contra indicator is the fact everyone is short the euro . . . . bankers want those funds.

Frankly I am a conservative investor, utility stocks, muni bonds, steady returns. But these goddamn market manipulators, HFTers, frontrunners, and the Fed make it impossible for the average retailer to earn an honest buck.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 16:18 | 1758923 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Yeah, conservative investing at this point = some free cash under the mattress and Au buried in your backyard.  Everything else is bullshit.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 17:09 | 1759084 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I'm sorry, but there is no such thing as a conservative investor who participates in a rigged casino, where the only bets are wild speculation about the nature of the rigging.

A conservative would run far, far away from such theft.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 18:09 | 1759232 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

There's an honest buck?

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:05 | 1758566 Debtless
Debtless's picture

I wasn't aware the markets had closed today at 11am.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 18:09 | 1759233 Mesquite
Mesquite's picture

Tooo funny...!!

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:07 | 1758577 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

"Monday is setting up to be an epic, risk off day"-Tyler Durden, 2 days ago.

Epic ZH fail.
But it's okay...I'm sure there is some excuse out there. "TD doesn't pick market bottoms" or some shit. If not then why the fuck did he post that? EPIC. FAIL.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:12 | 1758600 jdelano
jdelano's picture

What are you doing here?  Go away:  www.marketwatch.com   Follow the link little troll... go on, goooo on...you know you want to.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:19 | 1758628 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Don't you belong on the yahoo boards? There are plenty of cheer leaders there.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:17 | 1758629 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

So if ZH is so terrible, why are you wasting your time on the website?

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 18:55 | 1759333 smiler03
smiler03's picture

Its terrible isn't it? Somebody having a contrary opinion. How dare they?

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 20:19 | 1759489 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

Most folks on ZH knows the difference between a dumb opinion and a contrary opinion. Unfortunately, the guy wrote a dumb comment. What's next - is he's going to say the stock market goes down because of a blue moon?..

That's why people like Robo and Hamy are constantly junked. They spout "contrary" opinions without any substance.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 18:52 | 1759326 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

If someone as sharp as "Tyler" makes a fundamental call about where the market should logically trade and the market performed otherwise, it just goes to show you why trading this bitch is an invitation to disaster. So, what was your call. Did you go long and strong on the fundamentals and did the PEs of the market in general trigger your buy signal?

EPIC. WANKER.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 21:57 | 1759681 doomz78
doomz78's picture

the market rallied on Markel and scarsozy..  whatever the hell those two ass clowns are called.  They wil probably have a sub-par highly contraversial plan to fund the european banks in 3 weeks, or so.  lol   The rallies are insanely optimistic.  Based on a thought.   A fart in the wind.  A sorry european promise.  They are batting 0-35.  They will eventually get a bunt or get on, on an error. 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:07 | 1758580 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

I have no verbal explanation why this market has jumped today (it did not jump in european pre-US session) except that the es futures were pushing hard since last nights asian open for an upward resolution. 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:18 | 1758636 ZippyDooDah
ZippyDooDah's picture

Two words.  Short squeeze.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 16:42 | 1758995 espirit
espirit's picture

Courtesy of a dollah dumpster dive by daBoyz.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 17:10 | 1759088 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

"Cash for Trash" never held truer.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:21 | 1758654 hondamikesd
hondamikesd's picture

The first place I look when I'm baffled about a market move is EUR/USD. As TD pointed out earlier, 200-300 pips is a pretty massive squeeze...

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:46 | 1758777 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

You have no idea? Look at the dollar.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 16:29 | 1758953 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

i have no explanation for the dollar, either.   my point is that the es futures seemed determined since sundays market open to push upward.   i want to say conspiracy, but i have no proof.   the es tape talks for itself.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:11 | 1758597 HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

just look at some ladies - http://hedge.ly/gFWVSm . thanks indians for discovery america 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:12 | 1758601 zebra
zebra's picture

LOL

Martians:"take me to your leader".

Soldier: sorry POTUS is having lunch with his Wall St. buddies.

Martians:"get me a broker and start buying ES."

 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:12 | 1758607 gatersaw
gatersaw's picture

RON PAUL SIGN BOMB DAY, BITCHES! Find your local sign bomb on facebook and get down there to get your dumb asses educated by some real patriots. 4:30-6:30 local time today. Do something with your useless lives.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:19 | 1758630 dead hobo
dead hobo's picture

ZH postulated:

after all everyone knows Mars is willing and ready to bail out the world when the time comes.

reply:

Give a Martian a credit card and unlimited credit and show it how to shop. Then try to collect. The Martians can just walk away in amused confusion or they can use their atomic blasters in a big fuck you. The only difference between Martians and Grecians is they have no atomic blasters.But they can still say fuck you and already have.

Or, give a monkey a credit card and teach it how to shop. Then try to collect. Same result, but without the fuck you. Thanks for the bananas, dipshits.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:21 | 1758653 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Shit far.  Pork bellies redux.

For those who haven't seen this movie before, this sort of volatility is the kiss of death for almost any market.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:29 | 1758699 Breaker
Breaker's picture

"...everyone knows Mars is willing and ready to bail out the world when the time come now that every single central bank is dodecatuple all in on preserving the status quo."

But Mars needs women. The price of interplanetary bailout is usually very high.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:43 | 1758763 Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

Mars women may be few but they are easy.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 20:59 | 1759578 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

not to slewie!

i'm from venus!  all my gf's have been from mars! 

i tell ya, mars has beaucoup gold!  they will send it in freighters and return to mars with nannies & bottled water! 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:30 | 1758705 mrdenis
mrdenis's picture

Green shoots baby ! 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:39 | 1758745 Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

Hey Tyler!!!

If Anonymous is going to take out the NYSE they better get moving... tick tock tick tock tick tock :)

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:48 | 1758787 Falcon15
Falcon15's picture

Turns out Anonymous released a statement that the video naming 10-10 as "sestroy the NYSE" was not from Anonymous.  Wowsers, that was confusing...click link for "statement" from Anonymous.

http://pastebin.com/MCT1L3Kf

 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:52 | 1758802 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I said here last week it was just a joke.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 17:44 | 1759174 Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

I know 'Dog... I remember you saying it and I agree(d).  We all just have such short term memories these days :)

Your name should really be "Ol' Wise SheepDog - One"

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:40 | 1758750 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

Aak Aak, Aaack. Aak, Aak, Aaaacaaaacccc

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:45 | 1758774 Falcon15
Falcon15's picture

They sell medication for that. Look on the pet aisle, in the cat section. Hairball Remedy. =) reminded me of Bill the Cat

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 16:44 | 1759003 andybev01
andybev01's picture

Nope; think 'Tim Burton'...

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:50 | 1758794 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

AGH! MY HAIR"S ON FIRE!

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:53 | 1758812 EB1
EB1's picture

I put on my shorts again today.  This rally on light volume on no news out of Europe is bogus.  There is danger to the upside though, if there are earnings beats the market could ramp up higher.  Long term we will head much lower though. 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:55 | 1758814 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

2 months of Well Fargo shorts now underwater.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 16:33 | 1758966 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

In other news:

http://www.google.com/finance/option_chain?q=NASDAQ:NFLX

Check out the calls on the Oct. 22 expiry.  Yes, yes there are 19.5K calls at 200+ strike.  Yes, yes there are 43.6K calls at 145+ strike.  Ah, the glee at seeing all this wanton destruction of momo "money".  Enjoy the broker margin calls! 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 16:05 | 1758858 notaFerengi
notaFerengi's picture

I know this is off topic but...what happened to Anonymous' NYSE threat?

 

http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/SciTech/20111010/occupy-wall-street-anonymous-...

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 17:46 | 1759184 Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

It was a hoax... Anon' did not issue it.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 16:08 | 1758874 Mitch Comestein
Mitch Comestein's picture

Over 1,000 points on the DOW in five days....I still have all my shorts....that warm sensation is my ass on fire!

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 16:14 | 1758898 Belarus
Belarus's picture

Over 10+% in the S + P 500 since early last week. 10+% in a week. Benny has nailed "price stability."

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 16:38 | 1758983 ohbrother
ohbrother's picture

I'm with ya. "Fake" market moves hurt just as bad as real ones.

I guess at this point though I'll keep holdin' on. Ouch.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 16:54 | 1759038 Mitch Comestein
Mitch Comestein's picture

CNBC is touting that it is the largest 5 day gain since Dec. 2008.  Wow, that was a good time for stocks.  I'll bet the next closest stat is from 2001 or 2002 downturns.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 18:51 | 1759318 Bear
Bear's picture

Unfortunately, it's not fake until it turns around

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 16:15 | 1758904 Zer0henge
Zer0henge's picture

Sounds like a short is on the wrong side of the trade and istrying to talk the market into a selloff here on Zer0henge.  Let me give you some advice:  Don't bet against the United Stateds of America - you will always lose.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 16:46 | 1759011 Note to self
Note to self's picture

Cause God blesses us, huh?

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 16:56 | 1759050 Mitch Comestein
Mitch Comestein's picture

Put your $$ where your mouth is and go all in US only Banks.  That will test your resolve.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 17:01 | 1759065 doggings
doggings's picture

 

Don't bet on the United Stupids of America - you will always lose. 

I corrected your errors, this is obviously what you meant.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 17:01 | 1759064 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

i keep jumping in and out of this market, short.   made some dandy coin and have been burned a few times.  we should be hitting a down-trend line on the /es around 1198.5.  if we break it to the upside i don't have a clue whats next. if we bounce down off that trend, i'm going to short a boatload.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 17:11 | 1759077 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

That's right detective, he said ''...dees spikes remind me of da nails in my coffin'', then played strange music and I heard people, running, screams, laughter and dogs barking. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g9rSeKhFyd4 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVdS_10NQMA&feature=results_video&playnext=1&list=PL0F8C64DA5273FACF

 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 17:35 | 1759147 Bear
Bear's picture

Interesting 10/13/2008 was the largest single up day in the last 11 years ... yes the largest. It was an 8.4 sigma deviation ... a black swan just like the arrival of the original Columbus

And remember that 10/15/2008 was the largest down day in the last 11 years with a -6.6 sigma deviation. Thus for the Bear, Wednesday may be a great day!

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 17:48 | 1759193 Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

yeah, there's always some pull back... combine that with some profit taking tomorrow/Wed. and we might have a freaky slide back under 11K

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 18:18 | 1759248 Bear
Bear's picture

Upon further analysis, I found that it was the largest percent up day since 1950 ... over 15,543 trading days at 11.88 sigma. It was also the second largest daily move in history with 10/21/87, being the largest at 21 sigma.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 17:47 | 1759187 Lady Heather...UNCLE
Lady Heather...UNCLE's picture

A UFO flying in a very haphazard fashion crashes in a wheat field . A glazed-eye Martian dude limps out of the wreckage and says to the farmer : "take me to your dealer"

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 18:05 | 1759229 J 457
J 457's picture

Today was a reverse "Anonymous" day.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:17 | 1759387 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

2008 was scary. Will banks clsoe doors again and clos eout depositors as INdyMac did?

And how about those cheeky UK banks shafting their depositors back then.....

Butall's well since the Bank Bondholders and CEOs were not only made whole, but handed Big Fat Bonuses.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 20:42 | 1759542 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

"...after all everyone knows Mars is willing and ready to bail out the world.."

Ahem! Some bad news Gentlemen, how to put this softly...

Um, Mars is extremely red if you understand... yep, your worst nightmare, namely the EU and US Democrat Party (ie. marxist-socialist federation of fruit cakes) has been running Mars for the past 16 years ...they've spent all surpluses, Goldman Sucks cooked their books to show fake surpluses and fiscal discipline and hide growing mountains of debt..

Mars are stone cold bankrupt too!!


Mon, 10/10/2011 - 21:27 | 1759622 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

regarding the S&P rise today, seems the balloon has an awful lot of helium in it yet. Still, someone else can fly it.  I'm staying out of it, and think the balloon will burst without much notice. 

Tue, 10/11/2011 - 02:24 | 1760226 dogismyth
dogismyth's picture

well insiders apparently think the balloon will fly.  And a noticeable lack of discussion by ZH on insider selling tells you what?

http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/fig-2-10.9.11...

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