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SocGen: “Sharp” Gold Rally As US GDP Surprises “Dramatically” to Downside

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From Gold Core

SocGen: “Sharp” Gold Rally As US GDP Surprises “Dramatically” to Downside

SocGen: “Sharp” Gold Rally As US GDP Surprises “Dramatically” to Downside

Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,648.50, EUR 1,248.86, and GBP 1,039.01 per ounce.

Yesterday's AM fix was USD 1,654.00, EUR 1,256.93 and GBP 1,044.26 per ounce.


Cross Currency Table – (Bloomberg)

Gold rose $2.60 in New York yesterday to close at $1,662.70/oz. Gold dropped in Asia this morning and losses continued in Europe where gold is now trading at $1,649.90/oz.

The superficially rosy US economic outlook has dimmed gold’s safe haven appeal for speculators and some investors. Some investors opted to allocate cash to equities which have outperformed and been more buoyant of late.

The flight to safe haven gold has slowed in recent weeks due to the perception that the worst of the Eurozone debt crisis is over and that the US economy is recovering.

Gold 1 Year Chart – (Bloomberg)

Weak speculative hands have been washed out of the gold market and many smaller retail investors have also sold bullion recently due to the widespread concern that gold is overvalued and a bubble.

Jewelers in India are protesting the tax hike on gold imports and plan to keep their shops closed for two more days. This is India’s first nationwide strike in seven years and shows how important the gold industry is in India. The excise duty hike is expected to lead to less demand however Indian demand may again prove to be robust despite tax increases.

SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed ETF, said its gold holdings remained unchanged at 1,293.268 metric tonnes for the 5th straight session on Monday, despite the drop in prices last week.

Gold will have a “sharp” rally as the U.S. boosts monetary stimulus because of a faltering economy in the coming months, Societe Generale said in a report that was picked up by Bloomberg.

Data on U.S. gross domestic product in the first and second quarters will “surprise dramatically to the downside,” the bank said today in a report.
Meanwhile, ANZ has said that central bank gold buying may lead to a nominal gold record price in 2012 and prices to average $1,744/oz from $1,571/oz in 2011.

For breaking news and commentary on financial markets and gold, follow us on Twitter.

OTHER NEWS

(Bloomberg) – Gold May Near Record On Central Bank Buying, ANZ Says
Gold may near a record this year, averaging $1,744 an ounce compared with last year’s average of $1,571, on retail and central bank buying, according to Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.
“Retail investors will continue to seek protection from the longer-term bearish outlook for the dollar and insulate themselves from the risks posed by negative real interest rates and the crisis in Europe,” the bank’s analysts wrote in a report today.

(Bloomberg) -- Silver to Outperform Gold For Most of 2nd Half, BNP Paribas Says
An improving economic outlook means silver may outperform gold for most of the second half of this year and in 2013, BNP Paribas SA said today in an e-mailed report.
The bank maintained its gold forecasts for this year and next, and reduced its 2013 estimate for silver to $51 an ounce. It raised its 2012 platinum forecast to $1,840 an ounce and cut its palladium estimate for this year to $825 an ounce.

(Bloomberg) -- Economist Dennis Gartman Says He’s Cutting His Gold Position
Economist Dennis Gartman is cutting his gold position priced in yen by half, he said today in his daily Gartman Letter.
 (Bloomberg) -- CPM Sees Gold at ‘Cyclical Peak in Secular Bull Market’
Gold prices “are at a cyclical peak in a secular bull market,” and the metal is “unlikely” to top the intraday record reached in 2011, CPM Group said today in a statement before the release of its “Gold Yearbook 2012” on March 27.

NEWS

(Wall Street Journal) -- Gold edges down, positive US outlook dents demand‎
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/20/markets-precious-idUSL3E8EK0E4...

(MarketWatch) -- Gold edges down in Asian electronic trade‎
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-edges-down-in-asian-electronic-tra...

(Bloomberg) -- Jewelers in India Extend Strike Seeking Withdrawal of Taxes
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-20/jewelers-in-india-extend-strike...

(The Financial Times) -- Deutsche to open gold vault in London‎
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0af6a952-71ea-11e1-90b5-00144feab49a.html

COMMENTARY

(Zero Hedge) -- Spot The Difference Between These Two Gold Holdings Charts
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/spot-difference-between-these-two-gold-hol...

(Mineweb) -- Gold to average $1800 this year despite big supply surplus - GFMS
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page32?oid=147595&sn=Deta...

(King World News) -- London Trader - Sovereign Gold Buyers to Raise Their Bids
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/3/19_Lo...

(You Tube) – Jim Sinclair U.S. has launched economic nuclear war
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_irgll_wy9I

(Reuters) -- Saft on Wealth, Buffett, Cash and Gold
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/16/us-column-gold-saft-idUSBRE82F...

 

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Tue, 03/20/2012 - 07:40 | 2272593 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

Close the jewelry store for 2 months. Fuck jewelry or make it out of pewter.

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 07:52 | 2272606 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Quick.....everyone act surprised!

 

That's why they are driving it down premarket.....this crap is almost starting to make sense.

 

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 08:12 | 2272647 Stanwick
Stanwick's picture

Priced in Apple, gold is a kick!

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 07:47 | 2272602 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

Just grab as much as you can for as little fiat as you can, while you can.

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 07:47 | 2272603 kito
kito's picture

Socgen clearly doesn't understand american politics if they think easing is coming before obama gets another four years.

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 07:54 | 2272617 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

You'll understand when they make Eric Holder Fed Chairman.

 

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 08:14 | 2272649 Stanwick
Stanwick's picture

David axelrod is Hiltler's son

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 07:48 | 2272609 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

I thought things didn't surprise to "the downside" any longer

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 08:37 | 2272689 Stanwick
Stanwick's picture

Is it?

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 07:51 | 2272615 Trader47
Trader47's picture

5000, by 2015,, Buy,Buy, Buy,,, what you waiting for,,, GET PHYSICAL

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 08:38 | 2272690 Stanwick
Stanwick's picture

meh

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 08:01 | 2272627 Trader47
Trader47's picture

Dont Forget Silver,,, Buy, all you can

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 08:39 | 2272695 Stanwick
Stanwick's picture

dont you want to hold a little back for a case or two of "Tide"?

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 08:06 | 2272634 westerman
westerman's picture

Why is gold still under 1600? What is preventing gold from going up now?

I am not complaining. I can buy more gold when it is cheap.

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 08:09 | 2272638 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

Why is gold still under 1600?

 

It's not.....try to keep up with the news.

 

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 08:31 | 2272681 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Not yet, but soon maybe.

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 08:41 | 2272696 Stanwick
Stanwick's picture

no maybe's about it.

~ $1300 target

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 08:49 | 2272722 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Missed the boat huh.........sucks.

 

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 08:58 | 2272758 Stanwick
Stanwick's picture

didnt miss nothing pollyana

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 09:22 | 2272835 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Your grammer suggests otherwise!

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 09:33 | 2272881 fredquimby
fredquimby's picture

grammar

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 09:39 | 2272894 Stanwick
Stanwick's picture

Kelsey Grammer

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 11:09 | 2273224 prole
prole's picture

Trollsy Grammer

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 08:58 | 2272759 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Missed the boat? Not quite. But wouldn't you like the chance to buy at cheaper prices? Unless you're speculating, then I see why you're a little cranky. But for those people who'd like to accumulate, this is good news. I also expect $1300, but buying a little on the way down seems like a good move.

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 08:32 | 2272682 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Nothing is preventing it from going up.  And unfortunately, it will go up.  It is obvious the USA is run by mere mortals making decisions that have never worked.  Money supply is up 32 fold in 30 years.  Gold prices have doubled in 30 years.  The western central banks sold most of their gold over 30 years.  It is pretty obvious to me what was going on and that it is now unsustainable.

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 08:42 | 2272700 Stanwick
Stanwick's picture

what's unsustainable is gold's "frozen rope" chart. Massive break underway

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 11:13 | 2273236 prole
prole's picture

There is a massive outbreak of anti-PM trolls on ZH daily.

Of course it's all the same retard. this time no caps is it? with a spunky sarcastic tone?

well have at it, you were a dud as "sardoz" that's for sure... now earn your pay troll!!

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 08:17 | 2272656 solgundy
solgundy's picture

watch King World News for posts from Turk, then fade his comments....75% winning hand

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 08:35 | 2272686 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Except Turk is on a ten year winning streak and fading his comments has been a disaster.

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 08:43 | 2272704 Stanwick
Stanwick's picture

i dont call broken record pundits anything but a waste of time

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 11:14 | 2273244 prole
prole's picture

what do you call same-old-tired message broken-record anti-PM trolls with multiple avatars?

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 11:21 | 2273272 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

I love big shot traders.  They always fluff themselves up, confidence is key to manning up and seizing the moment's volatility. 

But the poor schmuck who bought yellow metal biscuits in 1999 and buried them under the big rock in the garden is today a wealthy man harvesting golden apples.  He is wealthy in spite of volatility of the moment.

There are gold bugs, but there are gold fish too and the memories of the gold fish last only milliseconds.

 

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 08:33 | 2272684 Redneck Hippy
Redneck Hippy's picture

Gold bugs are suffering from cognitive dissonance.  Gold went up on Chinese buying over the last couple of years, as the Chinese cut back their holdings of U.S. Treasuries and stockpiled commodities.  The bad news is that the move will reverse as China runs into a brick wall and needs to buy off their population.

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 11:18 | 2273260 prole
prole's picture

You are so right, imagine those poor dumb gold bugs, for the last hundr-- oops, for thousands of years those who held gold, those dumb confused idiots who held gold thought they were preserving their capital. How foolish they were! Imagine the stupidity of anyone who held gold from 1970 to now!! HAHA idiots!

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 08:41 | 2272698 Aquarius
Aquarius's picture

Gold's value never changes - it is the only Universal Standard known to man - whereas everything else is a variable; even the 'speed-of-light' and the US dollar, which is plummeting as we speak.

The US economy will totally collapse within the short term future of this 2012.

 

Doesn't mean that they will not keep on loosing wars and torturing anybody they can catch.

Foxtrot Oscar.

LOL and Ho hum

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 08:44 | 2272706 Stanwick
Stanwick's picture

Buy cash bitchez!!

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 08:49 | 2272725 LikeClockwork
LikeClockwork's picture

Greenbacks are better than gold down my way.

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 08:51 | 2272728 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Buy cash bitchez!!

 

What.....with gold? That's crazy!

 

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 08:43 | 2272703 stockoptimistic
stockoptimistic's picture

"This is India’s first nationwide strike in seven years and shows how important the gold industry is in India." - wait what? Thats entirely incorrect. In India we have atleast one nationwide strike each month. The most recent one by trade unions towards Feb end.

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 08:46 | 2272716 Obadiah
Obadiah's picture

Buy more physical now?
waaaaaaiiit for it?

OK zero hedgers what's your vote?

I am going in for more I thinks?

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 09:18 | 2272770 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

the recent hits on the metals were transparent and highly orchestrated. the highly staged statements by the odious chairman of the F'ed Reserve before Congress and the usual opaque and desultory signals from the FOMC, followed by unprecedented selling of millions of paper "ounces" by cohorts in the banking cartel on the COMEX in the past weeks were designed to tank the price of Au/Ag and trigger a further sell off by the Wall Street algorithmic robots. Accompanied by the consistent and expected statistical manipulation of BLS employment figures real price discovery both in equities and in metals remains impossible.http://youtu.be/JHiq3nb471U  

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 09:26 | 2272855 Redneck Hippy
Redneck Hippy's picture

Like I said, cognitive dissonance.  If gold prices go up, it's the natural result of fiat currency inflation.  If gold prices go down, its a conspiracy.  

Supply and demand doesn't come in to the equation.

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 10:23 | 2273009 JOYFUL
JOYFUL's picture

You're on a roll!  Before you drop right over the edge, let me help you figure things out.

Suppose you have a 'free market' in Cheerios, where price is subject to the dictates of supply and demand.  Cept you have two Cheerios...the original, with the tasty oats inside the box, and a Chinese version, ...same box but a melamine coated imitation inside, along with a free toy baby Godzilla, made in Fukushima Japan. Though stores don't know which they gonna get, till the order arrives at the receiving door, they know that sales have been impossible to predict, killer one week, dead the next. Grocery managers committing hari kari all over the country, as all the part time clerks have to spend the whole shift opening boxes to see which is which, cause crafty distributors start shipping pallets with a few boxes of the  of real stuff on the outside, and fakes in the middle.

Eventually, the people what bought the fake Cheerios and took them home end up dead, and therefore drop out of the market for Cheerios. People what found the gag box unpalatable and dropped it into the dumpster survived, and hunted down those stores which had found out how to control the supply chain to eliminate the fake Cheerios and just sell the real ones. That's a lot of work, cause there's like, one hundred boxes of fake Cheerios for every real one, and the head office buyers have all been bribed to stuff the retail level with the fake stuff,  but stayin alive is a big motivator, for some folks anyways. They start paying a big premium for the real deal Cheerios, and the stores that hung in and refused to stock the fakes begin to make up their margins with the extra coin.

Paper silver, paper gold.  What supply&demand? What free market? We still in the pre price discovery stage. (Ok, I realize that in the real world, people would switch from Cheerios to Fruit Loops or Cocoa Puffs or somethiing, but I had to pick an example, and that's what came to mind)...there's real gold, and real silver, you can try switching to something else, but your mornings will never be the same!

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 11:06 | 2273210 Likstane
Likstane's picture

You should be a teacher.  I would have passed a couple of math classes with you at the helm.

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 11:07 | 2273217 Redneck Hippy
Redneck Hippy's picture

Perceived value and intrinsic value are two different things.  Real gold has more intrinsic value than paper gold; at least you can use it for decoration, but it's worthless for anything else.  Come the collapse that so many Zero Hedgers are predicting, you would be better off investing in something with more intrinsic value, like drugs, food, or ammunition.

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 11:22 | 2273279 prole
prole's picture

Yep- Redneck Avatar Troll Hippy you are so right... for thousands of years, through countless empires rise and fall, the rise and fall of countless fiat currencies to dust, and gold to this very day, until today has stood tall and held its value throughout, but you bright brilliant anti-PM troll, you have determined that THIS TIME WILL BE DIFFERENT!!!

It's the end of days for gold!! RFN!!

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 11:50 | 2273456 JOYFUL
JOYFUL's picture

Gold\silver's intrinsic value is it's utility value, and it's chief utility to it's holders is that it gives them the psychological comfort of believing they will be capable of sustaining themselves through the collapse phase; those who lack that measure of comfort are forced to delude or distract themselves into believing that everything will just carry on as usual for ever...and therefore lack the necessary motivation to prepare on any practical level for a SHTF scenario...or to use their critical faculties when unrealistic scenarios are foisted upon them by self serving politicians and meida hacks.

Whether or not pm's are a tradeable commodity immediately post collapse is secondary to the edge they will have provided in helping one to gather the other necessary resources pre-collapse...when manipulation itself collapses and price discovery has occurred...and an ounce of AU will buy a container of (real) Cheerios!

At that point, perception is reality, finally, and perceived value instrinic value, as in a truly free market. As for drugs, that's just one more great thing about silver, it's medical properties....

paper silver, not so much.

 

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 09:27 | 2272861 Bubble
Bubble's picture

Was the timing of Indian tax hikes on gold being announced two days after the US unsuccessfully told them to stop importing Iranian oil a coincidence?

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 10:11 | 2272990 Cole Younger
Cole Younger's picture

"Data on U.S. gross domestic product in the first and second quarters will “surprise dramatically to the downside,” the bank said today in a report."

I disagree....There is no way in hell the U.S. will release real data. The GDP figures will beat all forecasts even though it is contracting. You can bet the farm on that...

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 11:28 | 2273319 prole
prole's picture

I do find the title of the post to be misleading however...."Sharp Gold Rally?"

Rally? What rally, seems to my humble neurons au is having trouble keeping its head above 1600. A more accurate headline might have been "Gold plodding along, above 1600 for the time being, barely"

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 11:44 | 2273419 onebir
onebir's picture

It's a prospective rally (predicted by SocGen).

Don't expect any gold -ve headlines from Goldcore, the guest post that dares not speak its name ;-)

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 11:42 | 2273404 onebir
onebir's picture

"Jewelers are protesting against increased taxes announced by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee in his annual budget speech last week as the government seeks to rein in a widening current- account deficit, partly fueled by record bullion imports in 2011."*

Erm
1) if India accounted for gold imports as an investment outflow (& apparently gold's largely used as an investment in India, even if it is used in jewelry) this problem would magically GO AWAY with no need for distortionary taxes (no doubt on some of the poorer sections of the population with little access to banks.
2) If inflation was lower, and interest rates were higher, people might be a bit happier holding rupees...

Now more than ever convinced of the incompetence of policy makers, WORLD WIDE, I'm off to get some *king gold.

* From Bloomberg:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-20/jewelers-in-india-extend-strike...

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 12:18 | 2273580 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Like the Indians are suddenly going to stop being the world's biggest gold buyers because of an excise tax when their country has a massive inflation problem that is getting worse by the day.

Tue, 03/20/2012 - 16:20 | 2274624 DrunkenMonkey
DrunkenMonkey's picture

If SocGen knew their arses from their elbows they wouldn't be in as big a hole as they currently are.

Tl;dr - Shit advice from a shit bank

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