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SocGen: "65% Probability Of US Recession"
On Monday, Goldman was the first bank to go ahead and hike its recession odds for the US from 30% to 40% (needless to say assigning probabilities to a non-linear outcome is utterly ridiculous but we'll play along), additionally saying that both France and Germany will enter a recession shortly. Promptly, Wall Street followed. Yet despite the glaringly obvious, still nobody dares to assign a majority probability to a recession in America. Until today. French bank SocGen is once again the trailblazer in telling the truth, with its economics team being the first to make the bold (for a bank) claim that America now has not only a majority, but a two thirds chance of recession. To wit: "the recent financial shock, if it continues, is already large enough to derail the cycle prematurely. Our financial conditions index is at a tipping point and, all else equal, suggest 65% probability that the economy will enter recession in the next 12 months" (and to all those who point to record corporate profitability as the strawman which will never allow the US to enter a recession, SocGen has this response: "the recession that began in December of 2007 occurred in the face of very strong corporate profitability.").
More:
In an effort to capture the ‘new normal’ in our recession variables tied to consumer leverage. Even so, the models continue to point to low recession odds over the next year. Simply put, this cycle is too young to die a natural death. This does not mean that a recession cannot happen, but it is unlikely to originate organically within the US private sector. A recession needs a trigger. Unfortunately, the recent financial shock, if it continues, may already be large enough to derail the cycle prematurely.
Financial conditions are already at mild recession levels. Our financial conditions index (FCI), which is constructed to have a mean of zero and a standard deviation of one, now stands at -2.25 which is a new cyclical low. With the exception of 1998, shocks of this magnitude put the US economy in recession with a relatively short lead. 1998 was the exception, but that shock occurred in the context of robust economic growth which provided a strong buffer. Needless to say, there is no buffer in place today. Converting the FCI into a recession probability using the probit model suggests 65% probability of recession in the next 12 months. This is a significant risk to our stall-speed scenario. With no improvement in conditions in the next month, we may be forced to revise our forecasts down further.
It is important to note that next year’s outlook is also highly sensitive to the fiscal situation. At the moment, we assume no new stimulus beyond extending payroll tax cuts and emergency unemployment benefits. Failing to agree on these measures would almost certainly put the US in a recession; however there is also the possibility that we may see stimulus if President Obama manages to push through at least a portion of his jobs plan. We will continue to monitor fiscal developments in the next two months and adjust our forecasts accordingly.
And on that note: short squeeze on.
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Rose colored glasses?
Hey Pladizow, are you the resurrection of Slaughterer?
I dont know who that is.
and 100% probability that they won't survive it...
so we are going from depression to recession? hooray! this is bullish!
well, the 30yr mortgage rate is now below 4% according to some news blurb.
I gotta ask why the fuck do people have to PAY a banker for the use of this money? It sure as shit ain't to compensate for risk, as the house is collateral and the fuckin banks just get bailed out anyway.
Oh right, SocGEn is a real truth teller. Next lie please.
SocGen on a rainy day: "65% chance of rain"
Turn off the "reality" TV and just look out the window.
this guy called it: http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc110808.htm
I calculated more like 68.2%. I use the math designed from ratings agencies.
Uh. Yea. Give me a sec... I'm coming up with 32.33 (repeating of course) percentage of survival.
LLLLLLLLLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY JJJJJJJJJJJJJJEEEEEEEEENNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNKKKKKKKKKKKKKKIIIIIIIIIIIIIINNNNNNNNNNNNNNSSSSSSSSSSSS.
Bitchez.
Nobodies model has leeroy jenkins factors in it.
Wow, I am confused! How can you put percentage odds on a recession happening when you are in one already, wouldn't that make the probability 100%? I win, I nailed it, stupid banks. Shouldn't I get paid for that assesment?
It means that there is a 65% chance that the USA will enter a recession, after the end of the current depression .... sometime in 2018 or so.
You are to be paid in fiat dollars.
Good luck.
The other part of that report gave a 20% probability of it going from light to dark tonight.
20% probability means 20% +/- 10%
65% probability means 65% +/- 5%
the guy must be french. on any american or german university he would not have received a degree.
some more numbers from me:
probability of right prededictions of SocGen in the past: 0%
capital lost within half a year: 1 trillion eur
probability of crying for "save me, save me..." any time soon: 100%
"A trailbralzer in telling the truth"---oh, really. I didn't know anyone was that naive. There is no "truth" on these kinds of "predictions"; they're just talk. I wouldn't believe SocGen if they said the Sun was coming up in the morning; and neither would any other reasonably sophisticated person.
I wouldn't ...and neither would any other reasonably sophisticated person.
now hows that for narcissism personified...? And an IQ of 145. Sophisticated lady and intelligent as a hammer head.
your new avatar sucks pladizow. bring back the breasts!!!!!!!!!!!
But MS is recovering and Deceptobama said everything is green and okay...
More like 100%
Correction: "suggest 100 % probability that the economy will enter recession in the next 15 minutes. "
I would agree, but don't we have to climb out of the depression before we can fall into..., whatever.
Translation: Fasten your seatbelts as even more massive risk taken by US
Just like there was "no chance" of a US rating downgrade. Timmah, you Eraserhead buffoon, sit down and shut the F up.
This means that it's already happening. Did anyone watch the back door?
WHo needs to watch the back door, when you leave the front door wide open, all the time.
There is no back door to watch since we are all already bent over with their d**ks shoved so far up the back door minus the lube.
No, there's a 35% chance that we are already in it. It's semantics, you see.
More jew confetti please Ben!
that is Sooo 20th century of you, FuMoBoy
Just so people don't think you're joking...
Funky Monkey Boy hates America, but he is a big fan of Iran and N Korea. Right FMB?
Tell us again how much better it is over there.
I hate all humans equally.
misanthrope... I like it.
I hold an equal opportunity despisement of all humans in general as well. And I show it by making up words as I go, fuck it.
Big plus, SheepDog. Same here. The challenge is not to let it blind you to the rare human not worth despising.
Oh sure Ive got 100% friends, but theyre pretty rare these days.
Easy to believe.
LOL Funk, the simple honesty of that statement brought a tear to my eyes. Oh, the humanity!
"Johnson, Navin R." Sounds like a typical bastard!
"Funky Monkey Boy hates America, but he is a big fan of Iran and N Korea. Right FMB?
Tell us again how much better it is over there."
No iran and North korea absolutely suck. On account of constantly being attacked by jews. They got white phospher and shit.
why would you have that excerpt so quick at hand? put down the remote from 24 hour Hitler channel and go be productive....
this term originated apparently in bavaria...producers refused the judenfotzen as they referred to it.
It's no accident that it was blamed on bankers and jews, as they were in charge of the banking system at the time and after Weimar, somehow, the nation of Germany ended up under 100% jewish ownership. Even after YEARS of anti-semitic divestiture and legislation, by the time Hitler truly came to power, that level of control had only dipped to 33%.
The Versailles Treaty was institutional usury against a nation. Same shit as was tried against Iceland and other sovereigns recently. When the debt compounded faster than the economy, the creditors who conjured the money from thin air moved in to seize collateral, AKA the German nation.
This phenomenon CONTINUES to recur throughout history and is the origin of the Christian prohibition against usury. Jews do not have such a prohibition; in fact, they have the opposite in their Torah, that of an affirmative commandment TO lend to gentiles at interest. They are supposed to lend to their kin at 0% but always charge interest to gentiles. Any progressive or liberal should immediately identify this as racism and should condemn it and the religious doctrine that sets it forth, branding both as hate crimes.
trav7777,
Christians do not (NOT) believe in charging interest .They may charge interest to everyone/anyone,they so desire.
Even a fellow Beleiver,if they wish.
More accuratly Lucifer/Horus confetti. Who do you think the eyeball triangle is?
Hugh McColl, Ken Lewis, Angelo Mazzilo, Dick Fuld, Jimmy Kayne, John Mack, Phil Purcell, Franklin Raines, Hank Paulson, Stan O'Neil. Dumb ass goiys can be greedy too.
no question at all...the Rocks and Morgans joined the unholy alliance that made the Fed, along with jews such as Warburgs and Rothchilds, Goldman Sachs, and so forth.
Yeah, if you're a Rock, you're in. But the Rocks don't help generic "white people" like the tribe helps generic tribers. The main difference is the institutionalization of racism among various clans. Doubtlessly, some bootlicker will come along and blame that on white people.
The notion of a clan is itself supposed to be inherently racist,
No need to ... Tricheur just kicked the turbo-print in Frankfurt. GS cashes the shorts, EU-Bank-llamas go bakrupt inspite, Deutsche Shithouse borrows from Ben without limit.
Alles wird gut.
Oooh, that's a bit low. Socialist Generale telling the US they are fucked. Its a bit like someone from Mississippi calling you a redneck....
Soc Gen: 65% probability of Soc Gen BK
US will get S&P and Moody's to come out tomorrow with a " SocGen 100% Bankrupt" and then promptly downgrade to JJJunk
LOL! But seriously, you have to realize that these eurobank casinos like SG and BNP are probably desperate to stop the dollar from rallying further, since they have massive dollar loans (which they took and converted into euros) and those debts have to be constantly rolled over.
65% probability they'll be nationalized by Bastille Day; they can keep their fucking predictions.
At least u folks in US can sleep safely even if the Criminal Reserve has the swap lines open with the insolvent Europe. The Tiny Pinocchio just said there's NO RISK. No risk he said!
10-06 14:30: US Treasury Secretary Geithner says there is 'no risk' for...
it's beginning to look a lot like Christmas...every where I go...la la la hmm hmm hmm. France couldn't call a recession if it was on a plate of frog legs and escargot. they think the business cycle occurs between strikes.
Nahhh, no recession coming to US.
Maybe Europe depending on how this sovereign debt crisis shakes out.
There's a 94.6% chance that a banker's estimate uses bullshit math.
65% of the time it works everytime
Made with real Panther bits.
And five-thirds of people have trouble with fractions.
65% we upgrade to "Recession"?? That's too rosy a prediction.
200% chance this statement is back-pedaled by tomorrow.
Can I haz ze rumorz now?
Not everyone from Mississippi is a redneck...You lowlife, backwards ass, flea bit, inbread, no-count, sumbitch. No just kidding, most of my Mississippi bretheren are 100% card carrying hicks.
socgen is smart, just look at their, um, stock.
The Financials should rally another 65% on HFT trading alone.
65%? So if it doesn't happen, "Oh that was the 35% part I was talking about, so I'm still right." I guess this made it to the internet because no one would pay for this advice?
I thought there was a 100% chance we are still in the previous recession. It was just papered over with $1.5T to claim we were in recovery.
^^^thread winner.
Oh....please, we're already in a recession. Sure, by statistical bullshit figures like GDP growth in a vacuum we have yet entered a recession again. But take away the punch, the unfunded defict spending and the Bush tax rates, and then tell me whether it's bold to say we might enter a statisical recesssion. It's alll bullshit. Folllowing GDP is just some sappy proxy for MSM like it was for a hack analyst to solely trump Enron' inocme statement while ingoring their balance sheet and statement of cash flows. Look at GDP's (the income statement) brother, the balance sheet (Federal Debt) and its' sister, the statement of cash flows (the treasury), and tell me what you see?
"It's not a recovery; it's a cover up." Gerald Celente.
Soc Gen, a ill-fated European banking giant on the verge of implosion with gunslinger rogue traders causing billions of losses and a balance sheet saddled with mountains of bad sovereign debt and CDO squared/cubed exotica left over from 2007.
Now suddenly is the so-called "expert" in supporting the anarchists' view that the U.S. economy is on the verge of a meltdown?
GEE yea good point as usual RoboTrader! The U.S. economy is obviously just FINE! 20% unemployment, record bankruptcies, record foreclosures, Gubment burning thru $70 billion dollars a day now, debt ceiling ever higher as the economic numbers tank...WTF all is WELL!!
RobotLemming, I bet you were the kid in grade school who kept secretively wiping shit on the walls of the boy's restroom, too. Your figurative wall-shitwiping here is no less disgusting and pathetic.
dude...what fucked up school did you go to? Monkeys without diapers prep??
From what I hear, almost every grade school has (or had?) at least one such kid every so often. I know ours, unfortunately and disgustingly, did as well.
You seem to believe strongly in an "ad hominem"-style belief system. That is, if the source is "good", what he says is also therefore "good", and if the source is "bad", then what he says is also therefore "bad". No further analysis of the argument is required, you just look at the source and knee-jerk your way through life. And because of that, you expect everyone else to evaluate news the same way.
Some of us, however, prefer to live in a "reality-based" belief system. To the extent that a person or institution denies reality, they are to be called out on it, and to the extent that a person or institution accepts reality, they are to be commended for it.
This is only hypocrisy to someone like you who cannot evaluate facts and reality for themselves.
NM
The former ZH contributor (such as he was) Leo Kolivakis (aka Quislingasskiss) far excelled at the type of ad hominem belief system that you describe. This belief system of his was strongly reinforced, of course, if the homo in question took Leo out to breakfast or lunch first, or drove a flashy sportscar.
Haha, I remember Leo. At least we have as proof someone like Leo, to prove 'on a long enough timeline' all ZH trolls get decimated.
"ad hominem" belief system = borderline personality disorder
creative-destruction.
But no new innovation in a decade, so ppl invest in rocks & carbon.
I thought there was a near 100% chance SocGen is doomed.
It seems very likely that 2012 is when the US economy (an others) starts to decline at a fast clip. Scary times ahead! [I wish this was not the case].
WTF......perhaps they meant a 65% chance of going from recession to implosion?
What? No mention of Mer vyn King's incendiary comment this evening that the world is facing "the greatest financial crisis of all time"?
The game is up.
Bankruptcy is the new black.
If SICGEN keeps up these negative comments, we'll stop sending them $$$!
JK SICGEN,
HELIBEN will never stop printing!
'Recession risk'? Well I guess technically we'd have to rise out of the depression to get back up TO a recession, which I think is HIGHLY overoptimistic at best...but hey, cant they just announce theyll print more money and all is well?
I'm having trouble seeing what the problem is here...
Aussie and the Stinko just ripping. Credit following. Yee Haw!
Take a look at the most recent edition (July) of "Traffic Volume Trends" from the US Office of Highway Policy. (at link below)
http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/travel_monitoring/tvt.cfm
It is sort of an un-official indicator of "monetary velocity" (assuming traffic is proportional to monetary transactions involving tangible goods).
Then, for an interesting graphic, go to Page 9 of the July report.
Bryan
This is from a bank that will require a US taxpayer supplied FED/IMF/ECB bailout?
We have to start consolidating the ideas flowing from these morally and financially bankrupt
entities.
If your unemployed convicted child molester uncle Ben started giving you financial and love advice, would you take it?
These guys create the newz and then exploit it.
They are obviously more powerful than national governments and the lowly serf-citizens that they serve.
slewie's indicators are screaming: We're Doomed, BiCheZ!
SocGen - 105% probability of nationalization/default.
Way to pull a Timmay, fuck faces.
Okay pulled the trigger on SPXU when S&P struck 1160, let's see how that plays out!
what happened to the theory of "monetary expansion or death"? fed is now taking back money, "qe" is a phrase no longer in vogue, stocks are stable, gold and silver up, oil up, WTF???!??! none of this makes sense anymore.
Nah. This is just a controlled pause in epic humping of the underclasses. They want the public cry out for it so sugar daddy Ben can pump it again. I can hear the screams already.
im not seeing that, and i hear no screams. the poor are well funded with section 8, medicaid, and public assistance. the public employee funds are still intact thanks to a stock market that just wont die. inflation is tempered. gas prices have dropped. pickup sales are through the roof. bond investors are having loads of fun. gold holders have seen a nice increase this year in value. EVERYBODY IS CONTENT!!!!
State of limbo it what it really amounts to. Cigarette break.
maybe because the US banks have 65% of SocGen's junk bonds?
Banks or GS ?
65% Chance of Recession?
Not Bad!
LETS PLAY GOLF...
i don't agree with 65, more like 50-50. Housing still sucks, taxes and fees growing, regulations gone wild.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com
show me 50 percent good economic numbers?
100%.
USA say : "99% Probability Of SocGen Recession"
Also works the other way obviously... Pots and kettles ya know. The good news i finally talked my Dad into removing his life savings from this cesspool that SocGen is. Vive mon papa!
thats why this bank is in trouble they cant even guesstimate properly
65% my azz
i find it always funny when doomed companies that screwed it up completely in the past make predictions for the future.
only fools without any degree predict the probability of chaotic systems to a precision of 1%.
i find it always funny when doomed companies that screwed it up completely in the past make predictions for the future.
only fools without any degree predict the probability of chaotic systems to a precision of 1%.
"France couldn't call a recession if it was on a plate of frog legs and escargot. they think the business cycle occurs between strikes."
No need to go low with racist clichés... The funny thing about this is SocGen analysts never foresaw anything, ever. They just followed Wall St. and the S&P like a dog following its master. They couldn't foresee they were buying sub-primes by the truckload (they admitted they didn't understand the "sub" in the word "subprime")
And now these poodles claim they foresee recession in the U.S.? These cunts couldn't "foresee" X-mas on a calendar even if you put their finger on the line dated "Dec. 24"... Assholes!
It is 100% q1 2012-2014. I undertook little exercise to create:
Prediction chart of US debt max, default time, haircut,inflationIts explained in more detail here:
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&p=34423#p34423
All in all, US debt will reach 21 TRILLION USD in early 2016 at default. Taking into account GDP 2011 = GDP 2010 (14,7 trillion USD) and 4% /year recession 2012-2015, the ratio DEBT/GDP may be close to 170-180%. In any case, >150%. That is a bit higher than the ratio Greece had in 2010 ( 140%) which prompted bailout from EU and IMF to avoid immediate default. No one is able to bailout the USA in 2016.
Haircut will be between 50-75% in 2017-2018, so inflation roughly 25% a year. This corresponds to USDX long term prediction chart (2012-2018) made here:
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&sta...
and as related to it, but made earlier and independently, long term ( 2012-2018) EUR/USD rate prediction chart made here:
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&sta...
so everything fits wiht deflationary recession in the USA q1 2012-end of 2014.
It is 100% q1 2012-2014. I undertook little exercise to create:
Prediction chart of US debt max, default time, haircut,inflationIts explained in more detail here:
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&p=34423#p34423
All in all, US debt will reach 21 TRILLION USD in early 2016 at default. Taking into account GDP 2011 = GDP 2010 (14,7 trillion USD) and 4% /year recession 2012-2015, the ratio DEBT/GDP may be close to 170-180%. In any case, >150%. That is a bit higher than the ratio Greece had in 2010 ( 140%) which prompted bailout from EU and IMF to avoid immediate default. No one is able to bailout the USA in 2016.
Haircut will be between 50-75% in 2017-2018, so inflation roughly 25% a year. This corresponds to USDX long term prediction chart (2012-2018) made here:
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&sta...
and as related to it, but made earlier and independently, long term ( 2012-2018) EUR/USD rate prediction chart made here:
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&sta...
so everything fits wiht deflationary recession in the USA q1 2012-end of 2014.
I wondered why the markets rallied today.
Now I know.
It was a rogue trader or rogue statatician or rogue something.
...and turns out 65% of statistics are made up on the spot.
95% of the time, 75% of statistics are 85% wrong anyway.
Watch out for this akak guy. It's like he knows something you don't know.
Sacre bleu!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.
Soc Gen, thinks.....................the US will be in a recession?.( While their Nad sacks are bankrupt?)
La Idiota's...........................................we're in a Depression,don't bother us with the trivial shit.
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