• Steve H. Hanke
    05/04/2016 - 08:00
    Authored by Steve H. Hanke of The Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke. A few weeks ago, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) sprang a surprise. It announced that a...

SocGen: "65% Probability Of US Recession"

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Thu, 10/06/2011 - 14:48 | 1746823 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Rose colored glasses?

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 14:55 | 1746874 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Hey Pladizow, are you the resurrection of Slaughterer?  

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 15:01 | 1746913 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

I dont know who that is.

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 15:07 | 1746947 Harlequin001
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SocGen: "65% Probability Of US Recession"

and 100% probability that they won't survive it...

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 15:24 | 1747009 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

so we are going from depression to recession? hooray! this is bullish!

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 16:09 | 1747184 trav7777
trav7777's picture

well, the 30yr mortgage rate is now below 4% according to some news blurb.

I gotta ask why the fuck do people have to PAY a banker for the use of this money?  It sure as shit ain't to compensate for risk, as the house is collateral and the fuckin banks just get bailed out anyway. 

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 16:20 | 1747259 ratso
ratso's picture

Oh right, SocGEn is a real truth teller.  Next lie please.

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 18:28 | 1747767 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

SocGen on a rainy day: "65% chance of rain"


Turn off the "reality" TV and just look out the window.


Thu, 10/06/2011 - 23:04 | 1748446 jeff montanye
Thu, 10/06/2011 - 14:59 | 1746904 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

I calculated more like 68.2%. I use the math designed from ratings agencies.

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 15:09 | 1746959 Jeff Lebowski
Jeff Lebowski's picture

Uh.  Yea.  Give me a sec...  I'm coming up with 32.33 (repeating of course) percentage of survival.

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 15:36 | 1747052 CreditcalMass
CreditcalMass's picture



Thu, 10/06/2011 - 17:10 | 1747500 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Nobodies model has leeroy jenkins factors in it.

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 15:01 | 1746911 Jim Cramer
Jim Cramer's picture

Wow, I am confused!  How can you put percentage odds on a recession happening when you are in one already, wouldn't that make the probability 100%?  I win, I nailed it, stupid banks.  Shouldn't I get paid for that assesment?



Thu, 10/06/2011 - 15:18 | 1746981 akak
akak's picture

It means that there is a 65% chance that the USA will enter a recession, after the end of the current depression .... sometime in 2018 or so.

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 15:23 | 1747007 chunkylover42
chunkylover42's picture

You are to be paid in fiat dollars. 

Good luck.

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 15:44 | 1747085 Manthong
Manthong's picture

The other part of that report gave a 20% probability of it going from light to dark tonight.

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 16:14 | 1747216 Linus2011
Linus2011's picture

20% probability means 20% +/- 10%

65% probability means 65% +/- 5%

the guy must be french. on any american or german university he would not have received a degree.


some more numbers from me:

probability of right prededictions of SocGen in the past: 0%

capital lost within half a year: 1 trillion eur

probability of crying for "save me, save me..." any time soon: 100%


Thu, 10/06/2011 - 16:24 | 1747275 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

"A trailbralzer in telling the truth"---oh, really. I didn't know anyone was that naive. There is no "truth" on these kinds of "predictions"; they're just talk. I wouldn't believe SocGen if they said the Sun was coming up in the morning; and neither would any other reasonably sophisticated person.

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 18:10 | 1747705 falak pema
falak pema's picture

 I wouldn't ...and neither would any other reasonably sophisticated person.

now hows that for narcissism personified...? And an IQ of 145. Sophisticated lady and intelligent as a hammer head.

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 16:44 | 1747356 kito
kito's picture

your new avatar sucks pladizow. bring back the breasts!!!!!!!!!!!

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 14:48 | 1746824 SGS
SGS's picture

But MS is recovering and Deceptobama said everything is green and okay...

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 14:49 | 1746826 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

More like 100%

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 14:51 | 1746836 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Correction: "suggest 100 % probability that the economy will enter recession in the next 15 minutes. "

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 15:19 | 1746991 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

I would agree, but don't we have to climb out of the depression before we can fall into..., whatever.

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 14:51 | 1746840 Racer
Racer's picture
US Treasury Secretary Geithner says there is 'no risk' for US in swap lines with ECB

Translation: Fasten your seatbelts as even more massive risk taken by US

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 14:52 | 1746854 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Just like there was "no chance" of a US rating downgrade. Timmah, you Eraserhead buffoon, sit down and shut the F up.

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 14:55 | 1746862 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

This means that it's already happening.  Did anyone watch the back door?

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 15:01 | 1746910 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

WHo needs to watch the back door, when you leave the front door wide open, all the time.

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 15:04 | 1746930 Jim Cramer
Jim Cramer's picture

There is no back door to watch since we are all already bent over with their d**ks shoved so far up the back door minus the lube.

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 14:51 | 1746842 Don Smith
Don Smith's picture

No, there's a 35% chance that we are already in it.  It's semantics, you see.  

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 14:51 | 1746849 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

More jew confetti please Ben!

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 14:55 | 1746872 Deadpool
Deadpool's picture

that is Sooo 20th century of you, FuMoBoy

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 14:56 | 1746879 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

Just so people don't think you're joking...

Adolf Hitler himself in his book, Mein Kampf, makes many references to the German debt and the negative consequences that brought about the inevitability of "National Socialism". The inflation also raised doubts about the competence of liberal institutions, especially amongst a middle class who had held cash savings and bonds. It also produced resentment of bankers and speculators, whom the government and press blamed for the inflation. Many of them were Jews, and some Germans called the hyperinflated Weimar banknotes Jew Confetti.

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 15:00 | 1746909 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Funky Monkey Boy hates America, but he is a big fan of Iran and N Korea. Right FMB?  

Tell us again how much better it is over there.

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 15:02 | 1746916 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

I hate all humans equally.

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 15:06 | 1746939 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

misanthrope... I like it.

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 15:09 | 1746955 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I hold an equal opportunity despisement of all humans in general as well. And I show it by making up words as I go, fuck it.

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 15:16 | 1746977 DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

Big plus, SheepDog.  Same here.  The challenge is not to let it blind you to the rare human not worth despising.

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 15:26 | 1747017 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Oh sure Ive got 100% friends, but theyre pretty rare these days.

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 17:13 | 1747516 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

Easy to believe.

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 15:35 | 1747041 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

I hate all humans equally.

LOL Funk, the simple honesty of that statement brought a tear to my eyes.  Oh, the humanity!

"Johnson, Navin R." Sounds like a typical bastard!

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 17:16 | 1747529 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

"Funky Monkey Boy hates America, but he is a big fan of Iran and N Korea. Right FMB?  

Tell us again how much better it is over there."

No iran and North korea absolutely suck. On account of constantly being attacked by jews. They got white phospher and shit.

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 15:28 | 1747023 Deadpool
Deadpool's picture

why would you have that excerpt so quick at hand? put down the remote from 24 hour Hitler channel and go be productive....

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 16:16 | 1747231 trav7777
trav7777's picture

this term originated apparently in bavaria...producers refused the judenfotzen as they referred to it.

It's no accident that it was blamed on bankers and jews, as they were in charge of the banking system at the time and after Weimar, somehow, the nation of Germany ended up under 100% jewish ownership.  Even after YEARS of anti-semitic divestiture and legislation, by the time Hitler truly came to power, that level of control had only dipped to 33%.

The Versailles Treaty was institutional usury against a nation.  Same shit as was tried against Iceland and other sovereigns recently.  When the debt compounded faster than the economy, the creditors who conjured the money from thin air moved in to seize collateral, AKA the German nation.

This phenomenon CONTINUES to recur throughout history and is the origin of the Christian prohibition against usury.  Jews do not have such a prohibition; in fact, they have the opposite in their Torah, that of an affirmative commandment TO lend to gentiles at interest.  They are supposed to lend to their kin at 0% but always charge interest to gentiles.  Any progressive or liberal should immediately identify this as racism and should condemn it and the religious doctrine that sets it forth, branding both as hate crimes.

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 20:27 | 1748066 DosZap
DosZap's picture


Christians do not (NOT) believe in charging  interest .They may charge interest to everyone/anyone,they so desire.

Even a fellow Beleiver,if they wish.

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 14:57 | 1746891 SMG
SMG's picture

More accuratly Lucifer/Horus confetti.   Who do you think the eyeball triangle is?

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 15:24 | 1747010 Deadpool
Deadpool's picture

Hugh McColl, Ken Lewis, Angelo Mazzilo, Dick Fuld, Jimmy Kayne, John Mack, Phil Purcell, Franklin Raines, Hank Paulson, Stan O'Neil. Dumb ass goiys can be greedy too.

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 16:21 | 1747266 trav7777
trav7777's picture

no question at all...the Rocks and Morgans joined the unholy alliance that made the Fed, along with jews such as Warburgs and Rothchilds, Goldman Sachs, and so forth.

Yeah, if you're a Rock, you're in.  But the Rocks don't help generic "white people" like the tribe helps generic tribers.  The main difference is the institutionalization of racism among various clans.  Doubtlessly, some bootlicker will come along and blame that on white people.

The notion of a clan is itself supposed to be inherently racist,

Thu, 10/06/2011 - 15:53 | 1747121 NoClueSneaker
NoClueSneaker's picture

No need to ... Tricheur just kicked the turbo-print in Frankfurt. GS cashes the shorts, EU-Bank-llamas go bakrupt inspite, Deutsche Shithouse borrows from Ben without limit.


Alles wird gut.

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