SocGen Sees $600 Billion QE3 Starting In March 2012 Sending Gold Up Between $1900 And $8500/Oz

Tyler Durden's picture

SocGen has released its much anticipated Multi Asset Portfolio Scenario/Strategy guide titled simply enough "Patience: bad news will become good news" where, as the insightful can guess, the French bank makes the simple case that the worse things get, the stronger the response by global central banks will be. Here is the key quote for those worried that : "A major liquidity crisis should not occur this time, as we think we are on the eve of major QE in the UK, US and (a bit) later on in the EZ." We don't disagree and if there is anything that can send BAC higher it will be the announcement of QE3. Of course, BAC will first drop to a $2-3 handle so question is who has the balance sheet to hold on to the falling knife. The next question is "How big will QE3 be"? Well, according to SocGen, the Fed will preannounce it in the January 2012 FOMC statement, the monetization will last from March 2012 until the end of the year, and will buy a total of $600 billion. We believe the actual LSAP total (not to be confused with the "sterilized" QE3 known as Operation Twist) will be well greater, probably in the $1.5 trillion range as the Fed will finally say "enough" to piecemeal solutions. As to what to do, besides going long some financial stock and hoping it is not the one that is allowed to fail, SocGen has some simple advice: "Buy gold ahead of QE3 as money creation has a strong impact on prices" - in other words just as we suggested yesterday courtesy of the Don Coxe correlation chart. Why gold and not BAC? Because, "Gold is highly sensitive to US QE, as every dollar of QE goes into M0, triggering the debasement of the USD. Gold = $ 8500/Oz: to catch up with the increase in the monetary base since 1920 (as it did in the early 80s). Gold = $1900/Oz: to close the gap with the monetary base increase since July 2007(QE1+QE2)." So go long a bank that may well go bankrupt and return nothing before it at best doubles, or go long a real asset, which will always have value and may quadruple in short notice? The answer seems simple to us...

From SocGen:

A combination of weak Q1 2012 GDP and softening inflation could push the Fed to another round of monetary expansion.


SG economists look for a two-step easing process:


1) In January 2012, a major announcement with the Fed promising to keep rates at zero until unemployment falls below 7.5% or inflation moves above 3% on aa sustained basis.


2) In March 2012, the announcement of another round of QE. We expect the next round of QE to be concentrated on MBS purchases and be worth about $600bn over six to eight months. This would increase the Fed’s securities portfolio from currently $2.65trn to $3.25trn by the end of 2012.sustained basis.

The specifics of what to expect from the Fed:

And why gold:

And the full presentation:


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BlueStreet's picture

Thinkin' about hiring a couple of craigslist hookers to help me lick my wounds.  Anyone in Chicago have any recommendations?

Spaceman Spiff's picture

That will be a nice contribution to Cyber Monday.



As for the post, are we back into rumor floating mode for the market until some bond auction goes bad?   

WonderDawg's picture

Are they predicting QE or sending out a public prayer for it?

BaBaBouy's picture

AND ... Bouy Says Buy The Ole-Yellre ...

camaro68ss's picture

between $1900 and 8500 an oz. They get paid to guess with gaps that big. Its like me saying im going to die between the age of 35 and 105 years old. 

The trend is your friend's picture

yes they get paid to make guesses that big.  makes you wonder how much these "experts" really know

dark pools of soros's picture

or they are just showing the power of manipulation and conceding that reality can only drag the price slowly

FutureShock's picture

Exactly - It should be $8500.00 but taking into account manipulation and corruption it could be $1900.00. Which is more than today so I am sure some one will say "Stack Bitchez"!

Al Gorerhythm's picture

It's just a road map for the non-critical thinkers. (Product of the educational system.) I'm sure that you have a "price" for gold that you have established using your own metric but the masses haven't even discovered it.... yet. 

According to Soc Gen, @ $1900 as base, then gold is on sale. Closing in on $8500, gold looks dear. I'm sure they didn't want to get folk overly excited but James Rickards gives an even broarder range of metrics to mull over. Using one of his metrics raises the price well into the 5 digit zone. Other researchers estimate the 6 digit level. It all depends on your measuring formula and whether or not the powers keep or lose control over monetary perceptions, where if they lose, it all reverts to a grade 7 maths equation.

mark mchugh's picture

"...whether or not the powers keep or lose control over monetary perceptions, where if they lose, it all reverts to a grade 7 math equation."

Love it!

passwordis's picture


  Now it's late here and I'm tired but the article ,as I read it, does not predict a range between $1900 and 8500 an oz for gold.  Both figures are derived from the increase in the money supply starting from two different points in history. It's more of a "what if" or "what could happen" than a broad prediction.

nope-1004's picture

Negligible.  It will happen because the bankster whores have 2 choices:  Give up, or print.

Benocide has just been putting it off to get commods under control and let the Eurozone be in the spotlight.


Temporalist's picture

I agree, he just wanted to let the froth simmer before pumping more gas into the mix.

Sunset chaser's picture

Printing is very high risk though, because eventually the world populace will wake up and realize that that the entire global financial system is just a paper trading ponzi scheme (with lots of built in inequalities) held up by nothing more than their own willingness to go along.

A lot of people are already waking up, and more printing risks making that awareness snowball, which would be the end of the li(n)e for the banksters. Place your bets, but I bet they know their history and are squeamish as hell right about now.

The Big Ching-aso's picture


 Ya know I totally half-ass agree.

If more printing wakes up people that more printing is getting done, then yes I would say that's progress.   Errrrr, well, I think it is.   Huh? 

Ponzi Unit's picture

I see you have little faith in the Soma-laden, tranced-out, dumbed-down sheeple's capacity to stay under. The Matrix is powerful; can the Tylers of the world become Neos?

PiranhaEatingGoldfish's picture

Just wondering what the weather is like in Imagination Land this time of year.

How I wish you were right, but for the last several decades, few have even begun to exit REM sleep, much less come close to waking up to smell that pot of coffee you are speaking of brewing.

The fact is stated clearly in the beginning of Michael Moore's "Capitalism: A Love Story" that, much like in the times of turmoil in Rome when Ceaser distracted the masses with games and entertainment, so long as people have reality TV and the puppet theater of politics, they aren't interested in doing more than bitching & complaining about the way they are fucked daily.

Tell the average person that the banks & politicians are screwing them & they will agree with you all day. Tell them to buy gold & silver and prepare for the coming problems and they will look at you like you are the special kid from the short bus talking about your favorite imaginary friend. They'll smile politiely and then be happy when you left. Yet strangely enough, they will wonder why they can't get ahead.

Einstein said it best: "Insanity is doing the same thing over & over but expecting different results."

By that definition, the majority of humanity is insane!

Hearst's picture

History teaches us that they WILL print.

delacroix's picture

history teaches us that they will lie,   they're printing now, to fund their offshore entities.

Teamtc321's picture

Audit The Federal Reserve Reveals 16 Trillion in Secret Bailouts


The list of institutions that received the most money from the Federal Reserve can be found on page 131 of the GAO Audit and are as follows..

Citigroup: $2.5 trillion ($2,500,000,000,000)
Morgan Stanley: $2.04 trillion ($2,040,000,000,000)
Merrill Lynch: $1.949 trillion ($1,949,000,000,000)
Bank of America: $1.344 trillion ($1,344,000,000,000)
Barclays PLC (United Kingdom): $868 billion ($868,000,000,000)
Bear Sterns: $853 billion ($853,000,000,000)
Goldman Sachs: $814 billion ($814,000,000,000)
Royal Bank of Scotland (UK): $541 billion ($541,000,000,000)
JP Morgan Chase: $391 billion ($391,000,000,000)
Deutsche Bank (Germany): $354 billion ($354,000,000,000)
UBS (Switzerland): $287 billion ($287,000,000,000)
Credit Suisse (Switzerland): $262 billion ($262,000,000,000)
Lehman Brothers: $183 billion ($183,000,000,000)
Bank of Scotland (United Kingdom): $181 billion ($181,000,000,000)
BNP Paribas (France): $175 billion ($175,000,000,000)
and many many more including banks in Belgium of all places
View the 266-page GAO audit of the Federal Reserve(July 21st, 2011):

FULL PDF on GAO server:
Senator Sander’s Article:

living on the edge's picture

In the spirit of full disclosure any amounts dispersed to the wives of certain unnamed bankers have purposely been omitted from the above list.

FL_Conservative's picture

If and ONLY if the eURo "blowed" up first and the US markets tank.  Right now there's no basis for Bennie to to anything more that twist in the wind.

Pladizow's picture

To: BlueStreet

RoboTrader may be in need of cash?

Black Forest's picture

He is searching his two ounces of Gold to make cash.

Grinder74's picture

I hear the SEC Chicago office is running out of midgets; so they're trolling on Craiglist for "a good time."

ziggy59's picture

Did u contact the mayors office?

Chief KnocAHoma's picture

I hear Reggie Love is lookin' for work.

SteveNYC's picture

The Bernank is going to do his best to replicate a sick, morbid hybrid creature of Fannie, Freddie, Countrywide, BAC, Citi by the time he finishes buying up all the slop in the next round of QE(special Real Estate edition).

Better get him his own reality show "Bennie Homes and Gardens" or "Renovations with Ben".

Schmuck Raker's picture

HOLY CRAaa...oh, huh?

For a second I thought you said 'Pershing' missiles, now THAT would have been scary.

What are 'Persian' missiles, rock and sticks 'n stuff? Sandals?

Rakshas's picture

hmmm, sand??

I reckon all the sand on the surface will be glass by the time the persians get the 10th missle away, OK then the pershing and Pershing II's will be flying whilst the persians and the rest of us are frying; I've never been one to hope for a solar flare but..... Just hot enough to turn all this bullshit into a one big deep fried cowpie.... Cock-a-doodle-Fuck!! 


DosZap's picture

Schmuck Raker

What are 'Persian' missiles, rock and sticks 'n stuff? Sandals?


Yep, with an unwilling martyr strapped on the side,sceaming Allah AkBarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

My foretuneteller says between $1.00 and $50,000

Godisanhftbot's picture

 Really cool that a major bank is predicted 8500 an ounce. Thanks!

kito's picture

Which sadly means it will not only not happen, but go the opposite direction.......

akak's picture

Yes, Jon Nadler's incessant calls over the last three years for gold to fall to a "fair price" of $600-$800 an ounce are MUCH more believable!

Oh, but wait, wasn't his "fair price" of gold only $500 an ounce back in 2008, when gold was between $700 and $1000?  And wasn't Nadler calling for $400 as the "fair price" back in 2007, when gold was in the range of $600-$850?  Hmmm, it almost seems like there is a pattern here ....

Anyway, "fair" for whom, Jonny --- the banksters who keep manipulating and suppressing the price of gold themselves?

Rakshas's picture

Kitco, WTF is wrong with those guys, they must keep Nadler around for fly bait or something; contrarians are ok but this guy is hoplessly devoted to being a ball bag.... no apparent use at all.

akak's picture


"Kitco, WTF is wrong with those guys, they must keep Nadler around for fly bait or something"

Yes, that is the $64,000 (an ounce) question, isn't it?

Whatever the reason(s) for Kitco's continued employment of the disingenuous, bankster-loving, gold-loathing Jon Nadler as their official spokesman, it is not for any good or honest purposes, I can promise you that.  It would be analogous to, and as seemingly nonsensical as, the Beef Council hiring the president of PETA as their official spokesperson.

Troll Magnet's picture

I don't think it's cool at all.  I prefer it when they denounce gold as something you can't eat...or barbarous.  Keep the weak hands away.  

Godisanhftbot's picture

 oh yeah, gonna sell mine at 8000, beat the rush

Grinder74's picture

<moved to reply thread>

johngaltfla's picture

If Sock Puppet is correct, I fear that the morons in CONgress and the Regime will f up the plans and cause the neutralization of any stimulus the monkey pumpers attempt to produce.

I'm just sayin'......

LawsofPhysics's picture

Still don't see how QE goes anywhere with Oil at or over $100 a barrel.  Get physical indeed, not just gold, lot of options here.


Perhaps everyone with a job is getting a raise?  Sweet we are all going to be billionaires!