SocGen: "Today's Move Is Simply Stupid"

Tyler Durden's picture

Presented in all its incredulous glory, SocGen's EM desk shock at the sheep-like ignorance of investors into the PSI and NFP...

I have tried my best to remain relatively bullish towards global emerging markets (GEM) over the recent period despite the global risks, but even by my bullish bias standards, today’s move is simply stupid. EM assets are rallying with a vengeance today, but the timing of that move is just wrong, in my view. Why now, ahead of a massive event risk, namely the results of the PSI released tonight?


It is still unclear whether the outcome for the PSI is going to be a market-friendly one, and in any case, it is not going to be a straight-forward one to interpret for global investors either given the rather complicated structure of the deal. We basically have some serious disappointment doubled with some uncertainty. So unless EM investors know something I don’t—which would indeed make me stupid—today’s move is at best premature and quite a bit far-fetched.


I am happy to participate in this EM rally on Monday morning, once we have got confirmation that the PSI outcome was favourable and that the NFP was risk supportive. But I do not see any reason to make that call just now. Maybe, after all, EM investors feel so great about the world that they have decided to ignore the short-term global risks. All EM high-beta currencies are doing particularly well, even the lame duck of Central Europe FX, the forint, which still has its fair share of fundamental issues. For the puzzled investor, today’s move is going to provide a great opportunity to reload on those defensive hedges..

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Overflow-admin's picture

It's monkeys fault bitchez!

Hard1's picture

They DO know somethinw we don't.  It's not that you are stupid, it's that you are not part of the corrupt information elite cartel.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

All it takes is movement on the margin to move the market. Regardless of whether 'they' know something or not, I always try to remember the Golden market rule.

Markets don't move. Markets are moved.

SheepDog-One's picture

All it takes is a couple prefabricated headlines read thru the algobots to move the markets.

Comay Mierda's picture

this move is a perfect fibonacci retracement on the downward move between 2/29-3/6 and it took out channel resistance lines on the way up thats why you see the steep moves.  its just the fucking algos.  you think there are humans left trading this market?

clones2's picture

Who ever said the "market" was rational or based on fundamentals or valuation???  Technical bounce off support levels.... That's all. 

JPM Hater001's picture

"it's that you are not part of the corrupt information elite cartel."

Now that's not nice.  My application is being reviewed and I expect an invite any day now.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

They keep asking me to resubmit my application along with a new $399.95 application fee. This is the fourth time I've done so with no answer to date.

I think I'm getting the run around. :)

Ruffcut's picture

I got approved the same day. The packet includes what bunk I'll have at the fema camp. Membership has its perks. 

French Frog's picture

SocGen must have been short since Tuesday lol

chubbar's picture

Apologies for the OT but this is too good to let pass. Watch CNN pass off an interview with a Syrian Rebel that is totally staged! The guy is sitting around bored then starts to direct folks off camera to get the gun fire ready then when the camera starts he gets himself in a panic about getting shot. Frickin hilarious that we are supposed to go to war with this obvious fakery. McCain is an idiot.


q0paz's picture

"just go past like you're fighting !"

Vergeltung's picture

"don't look at the camera!, don't look at the camera!!!"


Schmuck Raker's picture


Apocalypse Now, apropos our current debacle.

Cdad's picture

Right back up the Banana Republic Tree.  Today sets up well for the market to fall simply because everyone finally realizes...that there is zero market credibility anymore.

SheepDog-One's picture

I keep holding out some small hope for that! But I dont know, people sure are gulliable sheep who will believe ANYTHING as long as today is fairly comfortable for them.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Don't get upset, but what are you going on about?  People ain't buying tocks.  The market is moving up because no one is buying anything, so the system hyperinflates because the crux of all investments are built on a fiat standard.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

So everybody moves into cash?  And holds some worthless paper while inflation is making the return negative what?  10%?

Or they hold bonds and get a paltry return?  People don't know to buy PM in masse.  There is no alternative, so money sloshes around from worthless fiat investment to another while everyone runs around likes headless chickens.

JPM Hater001's picture

"that there is zero market credibility anymore."

That's it!  The problem with the Algo's is they forgot to program in what credability is.  The Algo's are the elites most powerful sheep!

zhtidbits's picture

Maybe it's the solar storm effect...

Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

"solar storm" Is that what they call HARRP these days...?

Catullus's picture

Yes!!! Great analysis.

Either the move is stupid or I'm stupid. In shorthand: WTF.

monopoly's picture

Don't need any heroes here. Just stand aside. Monday is just 3 days away. Plenty of time to eh "invest" if Dorothy skips up the yellow brick road and tells us all is well. Is that a curtain I see in the castle? Hmmm.

Christoph830's picture

Funny, I've said the same thing every day for the past 6 months...

apberusdisvet's picture

The monkeys have worked all night to fudge any disappointing figures and/or to get their "spin" stories straight.

Manipulation rocks!!!!!

thepigman's picture

Bwahahaha.....but in their heart of hearts, no one will ever give Europe

(outside of Germany, that is) another dime.

EU's done....toast.

SheepDog-One's picture

Yea bottom line Europe is toast, so is the US. 

AH but thats for tomorrow! For today we feast in hell!!

Or something like that....I dont know.

JPM Hater001's picture

Nah...they will just keep issuing new CDS and everythings covered...all good...jump in both feet.

Hugo Chavez's picture

Theres other data out there that suggests insiders already know the outcome..

I suspect it will pass with 80 percent participation. The rest get a negotiated settlement. Still less than par.

CDS not truiggered. Plan B is for germany to make the bond payments until it gets sorted out.

My best guess of what the insiders already know.

Christoph830's picture

Have you seen the "other data?"  Can you please share?

Hugo Chavez's picture

Look also at spreads, commodities, LIBOR, etc.

Seems that the info of a successful swap is out.

Everybodys All American's picture

You mean you don't know that the NFP will be fudged or that Greece has been sufficiently innoculated from a Greek tragedy?

DavidC's picture

I posit that anyone who questions whether he or the market is stupid has the wisdom to question his own position and is, thus, not stupid. DavidC

ZeroPoint's picture

Never underestimate a person's sense of greed. There are plenty of 'smart' people out there who are led about by what might be instead of what is.

SheepDog-One's picture

Full retard hockey helmeted markets go YEEEAAAAAAAAYYYYYY!!

Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

Embrace stupidity, stupidity is your friend!

We are witnessing the production of ignorance and the consumption of idiocy.

twotraps's picture

you're right....with this level of involvement by the fed you can't just quit, you gotta keep tinkering with it, the sheer size of the effort means that too much has been displaced to walk away, the stupidity continues.

JPM Hater001's picture

Just for fun last week...And it was just a bawl...I watched "They Live".  If you have never seen it. It's a Watch Now flick starring of all people Roddy Piper of wresting fame.  His acting is supurbly terrible but the movie is all about mind control and manipulation of the public by aliens treating us as their 3rd world country and sap our wealth.  And the whole thing comes undone with a pair of sunglasses.

Classic.  + me if you agree.

AgShaman's picture

Yep...lotsa symbolism comparitive to our MSM being such a joke and rolling out "feel-good kardashians" vs. real news.

The fight scene was a classic....possibly even longer than John Wayne's "Quiet Man" with beer break intermission.

hahaha....I'd really like you to put on these sunglasses....and I'm gonna fight you if you don't.

Americans could break down the walls of the rampant apathy that exists....if they were a bit more resolved in showing the masses how ****ing ignorant they really are.

JPM Hater001's picture

I know.  I just wanted Roddy to give up...the movie would have been much better.

Quinvarius's picture

The only thing that is stupid is thinking that a collapse in paper money is a risk asset rally.

SheepDog-One's picture

Like the PM rally or oil rally....all simply about the worthless currencies. All these 'traders' are doing now is hopium equity up moves MIGHT keep some pace with collapsing currency values. DOW may reach 36,000 as nukes are dropping on US cities. Wont matter.

Quinvarius's picture

Yep.  It amazes me how some alleged banking professionals still don't grasp the magnitude of the money creation that has been taking place.  The numbers are unfathomable to the human mind, so they are ignored.  History is not popular because it shows an unpleasant game ending outcome.  Instead of doing real work, they fixate on whether someone mentions more QE, when it is obvious QE never remotely slowed down in the first place.

The more I look at it, the more like Weimar we appear to be.  We have lost our industrial base.  We have lost our gold backing, and probably have no gold left anyway.  We have massive unpayable debt.  We are suffering war inflation.  Our government has lost all perspective.  We are massively creating paper currency.

I am personally waiting for the day when the bankers tell everyone to Fk off because the currency system was their creation and they can do whatever they want with it.  That will be when even the most ignorant people realize their national currencies have nothing to do with their nations and no law will ever reign in the madness.  Confidence will be totally shot.

alpharack's picture

Bla bla bla. Short euro here

adr's picture

Today we find that all the discussions were just a sham clown show to make it look like someone was hard at work. In reality the outcome of Greece was decided long ago. The technocrats already paid off everyone they needed to and the insiders kept thier mouths shut to keep the masive profit generating event a secret.

The insiders buy everything front running the news. The leaked insider news on Tuesday was to shake those who weren't privaledged to the real information from their positions allowing an easier buy in for the elites. Why pay top dollar when you could get a 4% discount. 4% extra icing is a lot when you're talking billions.

This market is engineered for nothing other than outright theft. Maybe I'm wrong and the PSI deal actually involved bondholders and Greece will not have the happy market ending. Somehow I doubt it. This is the peasants must obey the rules, the elite class lives by no rules.

I wish I could play by Technocrat rules. The IRS would ask me for $6000 and I'd send them 50lbs of dog shit collected from my yard over the past year. When they say what is this, I'd say ECB collateral it's even better than money.

SheepDog-One's picture

They better hurry, all those craftily stolen billions and trillions will soon only buy a weeks worth of groceries.