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SocGen: "Today's Move Is Simply Stupid"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Presented in all its incredulous glory, SocGen's EM desk shock at the sheep-like ignorance of investors into the PSI and NFP...

I have tried my best to remain relatively bullish towards global emerging markets (GEM) over the recent period despite the global risks, but even by my bullish bias standards, today’s move is simply stupid. EM assets are rallying with a vengeance today, but the timing of that move is just wrong, in my view. Why now, ahead of a massive event risk, namely the results of the PSI released tonight?

 

It is still unclear whether the outcome for the PSI is going to be a market-friendly one, and in any case, it is not going to be a straight-forward one to interpret for global investors either given the rather complicated structure of the deal. We basically have some serious disappointment doubled with some uncertainty. So unless EM investors know something I don’t—which would indeed make me stupid—today’s move is at best premature and quite a bit far-fetched.

 

I am happy to participate in this EM rally on Monday morning, once we have got confirmation that the PSI outcome was favourable and that the NFP was risk supportive. But I do not see any reason to make that call just now. Maybe, after all, EM investors feel so great about the world that they have decided to ignore the short-term global risks. All EM high-beta currencies are doing particularly well, even the lame duck of Central Europe FX, the forint, which still has its fair share of fundamental issues. For the puzzled investor, today’s move is going to provide a great opportunity to reload on those defensive hedges..

 

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Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:21 | 2235702 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

It's monkeys fault bitchez!

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:26 | 2235719 Hard1
Hard1's picture

They DO know somethinw we don't.  It's not that you are stupid, it's that you are not part of the corrupt information elite cartel.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:42 | 2235770 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

All it takes is movement on the margin to move the market. Regardless of whether 'they' know something or not, I always try to remember the Golden market rule.

Markets don't move. Markets are moved.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:48 | 2235790 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

All it takes is a couple prefabricated headlines read thru the algobots to move the markets.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:52 | 2235801 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

this move is a perfect fibonacci retracement on the downward move between 2/29-3/6 and it took out channel resistance lines on the way up thats why you see the steep moves.  its just the fucking algos.  you think there are humans left trading this market?

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 11:02 | 2235839 clones2
clones2's picture

Who ever said the "market" was rational or based on fundamentals or valuation???  Technical bounce off support levels.... That's all. 

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 11:02 | 2235840 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

DXY looks worse than ES.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 11:23 | 2235875 Captain Kink
Thu, 03/08/2012 - 11:35 | 2235962 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Sterilized? Maybe we can 'sect' the Fed's 'vas deferens'?

Pretty please?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasectomy

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 11:26 | 2235928 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

"it's that you are not part of the corrupt information elite cartel."

Now that's not nice.  My application is being reviewed and I expect an invite any day now.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 11:29 | 2235941 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

They keep asking me to resubmit my application along with a new $399.95 application fee. This is the fourth time I've done so with no answer to date.

I think I'm getting the run around. :)

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 12:18 | 2236175 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

I got approved the same day. The packet includes what bunk I'll have at the fema camp. Membership has its perks. 

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:26 | 2235720 French Frog
French Frog's picture

SocGen must have been short since Tuesday lol

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:49 | 2235793 chubbar
chubbar's picture

Apologies for the OT but this is too good to let pass. Watch CNN pass off an interview with a Syrian Rebel that is totally staged! The guy is sitting around bored then starts to direct folks off camera to get the gun fire ready then when the camera starts he gets himself in a panic about getting shot. Frickin hilarious that we are supposed to go to war with this obvious fakery. McCain is an idiot.

http://blog.alexanderhiggins.com/2012/03/07/caught-complete-cnn-syria-interviews-staged-by-activist-danny-91231/

 

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:52 | 2235808 q0paz
q0paz's picture

"just go past like you're fighting !"

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 11:02 | 2235841 Vergeltung
Vergeltung's picture

"don't look at the camera!, don't look at the camera!!!"

 

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 11:12 | 2235873 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Nice!

Apocalypse Now, apropos our current debacle.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:23 | 2235706 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Right back up the Banana Republic Tree.  Today sets up well for the market to fall simply because everyone finally realizes...that there is zero market credibility anymore.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:44 | 2235774 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I keep holding out some small hope for that! But I dont know, people sure are gulliable sheep who will believe ANYTHING as long as today is fairly comfortable for them.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:49 | 2235794 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Don't get upset, but what are you going on about?  People ain't buying tocks.  The market is moving up because no one is buying anything, so the system hyperinflates because the crux of all investments are built on a fiat standard.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:47 | 2235786 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

So everybody moves into cash?  And holds some worthless paper while inflation is making the return negative what?  10%?

Or they hold bonds and get a paltry return?  People don't know to buy PM in masse.  There is no alternative, so money sloshes around from worthless fiat investment to another while everyone runs around likes headless chickens.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 11:29 | 2235939 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

"that there is zero market credibility anymore."

That's it!  The problem with the Algo's is they forgot to program in what credability is.  The Algo's are the elites most powerful sheep!

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:24 | 2235711 zhtidbits
zhtidbits's picture

Maybe it's the solar storm effect...

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 13:05 | 2236396 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

"solar storm" Is that what they call HARRP these days...?

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:25 | 2235713 Catullus
Catullus's picture

Yes!!! Great analysis.

Either the move is stupid or I'm stupid. In shorthand: WTF.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:25 | 2235715 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Don't need any heroes here. Just stand aside. Monday is just 3 days away. Plenty of time to eh "invest" if Dorothy skips up the yellow brick road and tells us all is well. Is that a curtain I see in the castle? Hmmm.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:26 | 2235723 Christoph830
Christoph830's picture

Funny, I've said the same thing every day for the past 6 months...

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:27 | 2235724 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

The monkeys have worked all night to fudge any disappointing figures and/or to get their "spin" stories straight.

Manipulation rocks!!!!!

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:28 | 2235726 thepigman
thepigman's picture

Bwahahaha.....but in their heart of hearts, no one will ever give Europe

(outside of Germany, that is) another dime.

EU's done....toast.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:37 | 2235754 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea bottom line Europe is toast, so is the US. 

AH but thats for tomorrow! For today we feast in hell!!

Or something like that....I dont know.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 11:31 | 2235948 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Nah...they will just keep issuing new CDS and everythings covered...all good...jump in both feet.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:28 | 2235729 Hugo Chavez
Hugo Chavez's picture

Theres other data out there that suggests insiders already know the outcome..

I suspect it will pass with 80 percent participation. The rest get a negotiated settlement. Still less than par.

CDS not truiggered. Plan B is for germany to make the bond payments until it gets sorted out.

My best guess of what the insiders already know.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:32 | 2235736 Christoph830
Christoph830's picture

Have you seen the "other data?"  Can you please share?

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 11:01 | 2235838 Hugo Chavez
Hugo Chavez's picture

Look also at spreads, commodities, LIBOR, etc.

Seems that the info of a successful swap is out.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:33 | 2235738 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

You mean you don't know that the NFP will be fudged or that Greece has been sufficiently innoculated from a Greek tragedy?

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 17:08 | 2235739 DavidC
DavidC's picture

I posit that anyone who questions whether he or the market is stupid has the wisdom to question his own position and is, thus, not stupid. DavidC

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:34 | 2235741 ZeroPoint
ZeroPoint's picture

Never underestimate a person's sense of greed. There are plenty of 'smart' people out there who are led about by what might be instead of what is.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:35 | 2235745 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Full retard hockey helmeted markets go YEEEAAAAAAAAYYYYYY!!

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:35 | 2235747 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

Embrace stupidity, stupidity is your friend!

We are witnessing the production of ignorance and the consumption of idiocy.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:39 | 2235760 twotraps
twotraps's picture

you're right....with this level of involvement by the fed you can't just quit, you gotta keep tinkering with it, the sheer size of the effort means that too much has been displaced to walk away, the stupidity continues.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 11:38 | 2235997 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Just for fun last week...And it was just a bawl...I watched "They Live".  If you have never seen it. It's a Watch Now flick starring of all people Roddy Piper of wresting fame.  His acting is supurbly terrible but the movie is all about mind control and manipulation of the public by aliens treating us as their 3rd world country and sap our wealth.  And the whole thing comes undone with a pair of sunglasses.

Classic.  + me if you agree.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 13:02 | 2236388 AgShaman
AgShaman's picture

Yep...lotsa symbolism comparitive to our MSM being such a joke and rolling out "feel-good kardashians" vs. real news.

The fight scene was a classic....possibly even longer than John Wayne's "Quiet Man" with beer break intermission.

hahaha....I'd really like you to put on these sunglasses....and I'm gonna fight you if you don't.

Americans could break down the walls of the rampant apathy that exists....if they were a bit more resolved in showing the masses how ****ing ignorant they really are.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 14:48 | 2236766 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I know.  I just wanted Roddy to give up...the movie would have been much better.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:35 | 2235748 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

The only thing that is stupid is thinking that a collapse in paper money is a risk asset rally.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:40 | 2235763 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Like the PM rally or oil rally....all simply about the worthless currencies. All these 'traders' are doing now is hopium equity up moves MIGHT keep some pace with collapsing currency values. DOW may reach 36,000 as nukes are dropping on US cities. Wont matter.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 11:00 | 2235831 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Yep.  It amazes me how some alleged banking professionals still don't grasp the magnitude of the money creation that has been taking place.  The numbers are unfathomable to the human mind, so they are ignored.  History is not popular because it shows an unpleasant game ending outcome.  Instead of doing real work, they fixate on whether someone mentions more QE, when it is obvious QE never remotely slowed down in the first place.

The more I look at it, the more like Weimar we appear to be.  We have lost our industrial base.  We have lost our gold backing, and probably have no gold left anyway.  We have massive unpayable debt.  We are suffering war inflation.  Our government has lost all perspective.  We are massively creating paper currency.

I am personally waiting for the day when the bankers tell everyone to Fk off because the currency system was their creation and they can do whatever they want with it.  That will be when even the most ignorant people realize their national currencies have nothing to do with their nations and no law will ever reign in the madness.  Confidence will be totally shot.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:37 | 2235755 alpharack
alpharack's picture

Bla bla bla. Short euro here

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:39 | 2235759 adr
adr's picture

Today we find that all the discussions were just a sham clown show to make it look like someone was hard at work. In reality the outcome of Greece was decided long ago. The technocrats already paid off everyone they needed to and the insiders kept thier mouths shut to keep the masive profit generating event a secret.

The insiders buy everything front running the news. The leaked insider news on Tuesday was to shake those who weren't privaledged to the real information from their positions allowing an easier buy in for the elites. Why pay top dollar when you could get a 4% discount. 4% extra icing is a lot when you're talking billions.

This market is engineered for nothing other than outright theft. Maybe I'm wrong and the PSI deal actually involved bondholders and Greece will not have the happy market ending. Somehow I doubt it. This is the peasants must obey the rules, the elite class lives by no rules.

I wish I could play by Technocrat rules. The IRS would ask me for $6000 and I'd send them 50lbs of dog shit collected from my yard over the past year. When they say what is this, I'd say ECB collateral it's even better than money.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:41 | 2235766 twotraps
twotraps's picture

good point

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:41 | 2235767 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

They better hurry, all those craftily stolen billions and trillions will soon only buy a weeks worth of groceries.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 11:01 | 2235837 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Don't you dare give the IRS all that nitrogen and phosphorus, that's good shit.  Send them the bloddy paper.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 11:41 | 2236013 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Third sentece "thier" is misspelled.

Otherwise dead on.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 11:53 | 2236067 Eisenhorn
Eisenhorn's picture

First sentence, "sentece" is misspelled.  Karma's a bitch.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:42 | 2235772 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

If Robo wrote about the ever hyperinflating fiat currency while he wrote how it affects stock prices, and all asset prices in general, you would all give him green instead of red, you know.

Econ 101: decrease the perceived value of fiat to raise asset prices.  Stocks are an asset, thus why all Central Banks hold market securities - so to balance, and leverage, their books.

There is no QE, there is no spoon, only what the "M"oney "M"anagers want there to be.....

....until there is nothing left, and only reality is staring you in the face.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:47 | 2235782 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Why are you bringing up little paid pumper RoboTarder? Who cares? 

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:46 | 2235780 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

It doesn't matter if it's stupid.

It just matters that a select few can rape it.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:51 | 2235799 jm
jm's picture

Looks like SocGen just got totally blowtorched.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:54 | 2235814 cat2
cat2's picture

Don't fight the Fed/Printer/Central Banks.  They have bigger guns than you.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 11:02 | 2235845 eBuddha
eBuddha's picture

what is this guy talking about - yes they're up today, but haven't even closed the gap from their drop on Tuesday yet.

the EM charts definately don't look like AAPL.

seems like someone missed a buying oppty yesterday.

 

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 11:04 | 2235847 Archduke
Archduke's picture

@tyler: source?

 

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 11:04 | 2235852 KFofB
KFofB's picture

Joke is on you, again.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 11:56 | 2236075 chancee
chancee's picture

What SocGen needs to understand is that the move the world over had to do with one thing.  THE US FUTURES being ramped up in the middle of the night.  That's it. 

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 12:37 | 2236279 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

SocGen should realize what casino they are in...there isn't one outcome the EU is confident of if they don't manipulate this PSI to occur without CAC and so therefore they shall....simple as that...the new rules of the game are that total amount of sovereign debt does not matter ...only the ability to SERVICE it and with those rules, the US has many more years before they have a problem aka Japan...expect our $15.1T to head fairly quickly to $20T and $30T after that...you all have time to build that bunker and become a crack shot...

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 13:59 | 2236599 rupeshpatel
rupeshpatel's picture

TYLER you are good at getting info but dont understand the markets ! the markets want to go higher .. they are biased upward so are dampening any bad news and exaggerating good news .. you are treating the markets as if it has no bias./

the market is also smarter .. it knew that the participation rate would be high and therefore bought risk (it also got the eurozone finance ministers discussions right in a similar way while you called it all wrong!). you are using fundamentals and complex analysis .. adding 2 and 2 and getting 5. 

RUPESH PATEL (CSC) 

 

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