SocGen's 6 Easy Charts On What Happens To Gold And Stocks Under "QE2.5"

Tyler Durden's picture

Looks like SocGen pulled a TGIF today and in response to its Corporate Market Alert, in which it asked the rhetorical question, "Fed QE '2.5': gold and equities to take off again?" it answers itself quickly and to the point in just 6 simple charts. Here they are...

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GeneMarchbanks's picture

Note to market: Keep SocGen around a little while longer thy're getting better at all this. On second thought, nevermind.

 

A little Friday night humor:

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23987946-escort-girls-lef...

SGS's picture

Soooooooooooooo.....buy gold?

 

LOL.

Ancona's picture

SWEET!!!!

Friday financial porn. Better than hot babes wearing catholic girl school uniforms without panties on!

PingaYourFace's picture

No ... just no.  It's good stuff, but it's not better than hot babes wearing catholic girl school uniforms without panties on!

You're losing your mind.  :p

ThePhysicist's picture

Gold looks like its gone parabolic above the longer term trend, should be about $1600/oz.

 

Crisismode's picture

You just keep believing that dope.

 

I'll take the other end of that trade at any price over $1700.

 

And laugh all the way.

Let them eat iPads's picture

He died while people were laughing at him, the way all bankers should go.

Absalon's picture

That was a suicide. I guess the coroner was afraid he would void some life insurance.

 

Too bad more people don't realize how resilient they can be, and how quickly they can recover from major set backs, if they choose to live.

 

IQ 145's picture

Wow. that;s amazing. one down 2200 to go.

drivenZ's picture

This guy wasn't a "banker"...assistant vice-president at Deutsche? Everyone is an AVP...this guy was just some poor schlep.  

samsara's picture

Can we hope for 'CopyCat' Reactions amongst other bankers?

Could this be a trend?

samsara's picture

They say it was an 'Accident'  however it may have been a VERY VERY shrewd suicide. 

Most insurances don't pay out for suicide, but an 'Accident'   they do.

I wonder what the wife and kids get in terms of benefits? 

Aeonios's picture

Lollerskates.

Well, he did his bankster buddies proud in the end. Plausible deniability even in death, and to think those bastards over at UBS wouldn't hire him. He obviously had the talent.

At any rate, we could certainly use some humor after this week's charades.

Robslob's picture

Just picked up 10oz of AGE and another 100oz of ASE...

 

I can trade like a banker too...I love high prices!

speconomist's picture

Pics 2 and 4 are the same.

malikai's picture

That gold chart is perfect for the masses.

LawsofPhysics's picture

So the chair satan is going to be buying some bonds next week eh?  The bernank must love diminising returns.

Ghoaster's picture

I just love that they told Timmay to shut up

equity_momo's picture

Looks like Gold can do just fine regardless of money printing. That shows how fucked this system is. RESET TIME MOTHER FUCKERS.

Smiddywesson's picture

Noticed that too EM.  If you back up enough from the chart, gold doesn't give a crap what the Bernank does.  In the long run, the trend is unstoppable.

WonderDawg's picture

Dangerous way to think. People said the same about real estate back in 2005.

equity_momo's picture

WD its dangerous not to get with the program ASAP.  Gold , in the physical form , has no counterparty risk (i dont want to discus esoteric issues such as armed robbery) and has NO LIABILITIES.  Discuss gold ownership v 90% mortgages or margin SOX accounts circa 1999 please?

Comparing the tech bubble and housing to physical gold is like comparing your childs finger painting to Picasso. They may look the same to the untrained retard but they are very very different.

WonderDawg's picture

My point was to Smiddy's comment that the trend is unstoppable. In reality, trends change over the course of time. I'm not saying gold won't continue upward over time, but there may be better buying opportunities than right now. Getting locked into the mentality of "this trend is unstoppable" is dangerous. Is it that hard to see the logic in that?

Troll Magnet's picture

i've tried to time the market many, many times and can tell you that it's not a good strategy. now i buy whenever there is a dip. if there is no dip, i just buy once every two weeks. so i bought some gold when it was rising to 1860 a couple of weeks ago. but i also bought some when it pulled back to 1760 yesterday. i don't really care since i'm long physical. and i bought most of my gold at 1,000-1200/oz.

oh yeah, silver is great, too. just keep converting your paper to gold or silver and keep trucking until the proverbial SHTF. then convert your PM's to land, commercial properties or if you have enough, buy yourself a small island and be your own government.

WonderDawg's picture

I get it, trust me. I've been buying since gold was $900 and silver was $16, which means I came in kind of late, myself. In fact, I just took a small delivery from Gainesville Coins today. But to illustrate my point, back in the spring, when silver was all the rage, there was someone on here that posted he was selling all his shit and going all in on silver. It was trading for about $46 at the time, on the way up. A month later, it was trading at $35. I'm thinking that guy was probably feeling a little sick, if he was trying to maximize his purchase. Going all in at or near the nominal high strikes me as unwise. Believing that the "trend is unstoppable" may cause you to make some less than optimal decisions.

The reason I compared it to the real estate market was not because of the mechanics of the market, but because of the similar mind-set. People thought that real estate would go up forever, and we see how that turned out. The belief that the trend is unstoppable is a mind-set that usually proves faulty.

Whalley World's picture

People thought that real estate would go up forever, you mean Sheeple.  Those idiots should have listened to Peter Schiff, Bill Bonner (Financial Reckoning Day) Jim Sinclair or Max Keiser who tell the truth.

Those dolts that bought the idea of ever increasing home prices were buying into the mainstream media hype.  Trust your sources and you will win.

FEDbuster's picture

Speaking of Peter Schiff, if you haven't seen this recent video of him before a Congressional committee on the Obmam Jobs Act bill take the time to watch it:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BHLguFEN3M&list=FLDqTwQ_Aj90G1wgtmXVbQxA...

Bendromeda Strain's picture

I get it, trust me. I've been buying since gold was $900 and silver was $16, which means I came in kind of late, myself.

Those are post-TARP prices. Trust me, you are not alone in deciding at that time.

Libertarian777's picture

you're correct WD. You're referring to what Nicolas Taleb talks about, the turkey who for 1,000 days sees food coming from the same source. The turkey continues to gain weight in a linear fashion during these 1,000 days.

Nothing could avow that turkey that tomorrow, it will get fed.

 

Until 24th Nov. Then (in the turkey's viewpoint) a 'black swan' occurs and no food comes on day 1,001, but instead an executioner.

 

That being said though, for the forseeable future gold has a strong trend due to the extend of international euro and dollar currency debasement.

The black swan might possibly be if e.g. Bernake dies and an austrian school economist is appointed and jacks interest rates to double digits overnight.

WonderDawg's picture

Linear extrapolation is a product of linear thinking, thus the "this trend is unstoppable" mind-set. People have and will continue to lose fortunes with this kind of thinking.

If you don't use a linear extrapolation lens to view that chart, the rise in gold looks kinda tired. I hope it reverses hard, I'll back up the truck, because I think over the longer term, like 5-10 years, it will trend up, but not before a rather large correction.

But I could be wrong. Wouldn't be the first time.

prole's picture

WonderDawg that is the million dollar question-

Is it Weimar or is it 1981?

Gold never "came back down" in Weimar. It went up forever (until a currency change)

But in 1981 au and ag "came back down" even to the point that a silver investor could have been wiped out or took a huge loss at least, a 30 year loss, more than that really.

We know what happened in the past, but wherefor tomorrow?

WonderDawg's picture

I agree, Prole. You have to assimilate your own information, analyze it, and make your own decisions. If you want to trade in this market, you also have to factor what the big market influences (TPTB) will do. Tricky shit for traders as well as investors (the difference to me being the time horizon for having your capital tied up). I don't have any "investments" other than some phizzy and some shares in a bear fund. I consider the bear fund a long term investment with a 3-5 year horizon, so obviously I see the long term (5 years) being down. As far as trading, I gamble a little but not all that much. I see a new low this year, after which I'll hope to ride a rather vigorous rally, probably up to the neckline of the recent H&S pattern, and when I think that rally has lost its legs, I'll start buying puts. The bear fund just rides on. If gold corrects, as I expect it to, I'll load up. If I'm wrong on that, my bad. Gotta call em like you see em, but stay nimble. I can't get behind any unstoppable trend kind of thinking. If I see I'm obviously wrong, I'll adjust.

But I don't know shit. I'm just a country boy trying to survive another tricky day.

Spastica Rex's picture

The other day somebody equted PMs with Beanie Babies. No shortage of dubious analogies 'round here.

blunderdog's picture

Austrian theory begins with the axiom that humans assignment of "value" is a subjective process.  So that analogy makes sense from a "purist" Austrian perspective.

Spastica Rex's picture

Yes - I get that. Contextually, Beanie Babies (and tulips, and '60s muscle cars, etc.) weren't/aren't perceived as valuable due to a lack of confidence in political/economic/social structures. I wonder if the reasons for subjective valuation are significant? I think so, but I'm no economist and I know nothing.

blunderdog's picture

The reasons for subjective valuation of any given resource could help determine which stage of market hysteria you're participating in, I'd say.

InMisesITrust's picture

Only if using margin and you can not endure the volatility......yep, just like real estate.

ouchtouch's picture

The trend is totally stoppable, all the Bernank has to do is raise interest rates like Volcker did.  Then we would pay the enormous interest on the federal debt by . . . uh.

Robslob's picture

 

 

Need....more....time....to....accumulate....

jmcadg's picture

Let's hope Ben offers up some tasty treats ...
My Oct Gold Calls expire on 27th Lol

NB's picture

It's always a good time to buy gold.

If someone is crazy enough to take my paper for their gold I'm eager to trade... I just wish I had more paper to trade!

hackettlad's picture

Sorry, these graphs don't tell us anything about what will happen to stocks, all they do is look at historical performance.  And we know that is no guarantee for the future.

Imminent Collapse's picture

Just bought another 20 oz of gold.  My wife told me I was crazy when I paid $800 an oz for gold.  Said it was the highest it had ever been. Again when I paid $1,500, again when I paid $1782, again when I just bought it.  But I still think that it is cheap.  And I didn't leverage it.  If the SHTF, then she will be glad I did.  If not, I'll just hang onto it.  Either way, I am OK with it.

Bam_Man's picture

In the unlikely event that gold declines significantly, you can have it melted and made into jewelry for her to wear.

Any complaints about you "losing money" would cease abruptly.

blunderdog's picture

It would make great cookware, too.

WmMcK's picture

Stahl is better for cooking, Au for other things.

Anonymouse's picture

I know this is not news to anyone here, but the infuriating part of all this market manipulation (well one of them) is that the Fed's market manipulation simply moves money from one pocket to another.  They have taken it upon themselves to determine that borrowers, especially over-leveraged borrowers, should be rewarded and savers penalized.

Savers are hit from low interest rates (well below zero on a real basis) and from rapid dollar depreciation.

Beyond the morality of the issue, or even the moral hazard, who are they to decide who is worthy of receiving money and who is not worthy of keeping the money they already have?

It is obscene.

Youri Carma's picture

Gold closed at $1,811.35 http://www.goldprice.org/spot-gold.html

 

Expect some fireworks next week.

SwingForce's picture

jIMMY, rOBERT, jOHN pAUL & jOHN bONHAM (Turn it UP on a Friday)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYWxE-ShdXc&feature=fvwrel