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SocGen's 6 Easy Charts On What Happens To Gold And Stocks Under "QE2.5"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Looks like SocGen pulled a TGIF today and in response to its Corporate Market Alert, in which it asked the rhetorical question, "Fed QE '2.5': gold and equities to take off again?" it answers itself quickly and to the point in just 6 simple charts. Here they are...

 

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Fri, 09/16/2011 - 16:50 | 1678549 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Note to market: Keep SocGen around a little while longer thy're getting better at all this. On second thought, nevermind.

 

A little Friday night humor:

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23987946-escort-girls-lef...

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 16:55 | 1678574 SGS
SGS's picture

Soooooooooooooo.....buy gold?

 

LOL.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 18:39 | 1678865 Ancona
Ancona's picture

SWEET!!!!

Friday financial porn. Better than hot babes wearing catholic girl school uniforms without panties on!

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 20:17 | 1679045 PingaYourFace
PingaYourFace's picture

No ... just no.  It's good stuff, but it's not better than hot babes wearing catholic girl school uniforms without panties on!

You're losing your mind.  :p

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 19:59 | 1679015 ThePhysicist
ThePhysicist's picture

Gold looks like its gone parabolic above the longer term trend, should be about $1600/oz.

 

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 23:11 | 1679248 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

You just keep believing that dope.

 

I'll take the other end of that trade at any price over $1700.

 

And laugh all the way.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 17:11 | 1678629 Let them eat iPads
Let them eat iPads's picture

He died while people were laughing at him, the way all bankers should go.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 18:51 | 1678890 Absalon
Absalon's picture

That was a suicide. I guess the coroner was afraid he would void some life insurance.

 

Too bad more people don't realize how resilient they can be, and how quickly they can recover from major set backs, if they choose to live.

 

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 19:22 | 1678949 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

Wow. that;s amazing. one down 2200 to go.

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 10:53 | 1679672 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

This guy wasn't a "banker"...assistant vice-president at Deutsche? Everyone is an AVP...this guy was just some poor schlep.  

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 21:04 | 1679105 samsara
samsara's picture

Can we hope for 'CopyCat' Reactions amongst other bankers?

Could this be a trend?

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 21:09 | 1679109 samsara
samsara's picture

They say it was an 'Accident'  however it may have been a VERY VERY shrewd suicide. 

Most insurances don't pay out for suicide, but an 'Accident'   they do.

I wonder what the wife and kids get in terms of benefits? 

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 03:57 | 1679442 Aeonios
Aeonios's picture

Lollerskates.

Well, he did his bankster buddies proud in the end. Plausible deniability even in death, and to think those bastards over at UBS wouldn't hire him. He obviously had the talent.

At any rate, we could certainly use some humor after this week's charades.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 16:48 | 1678551 Robslob
Robslob's picture

Just picked up 10oz of AGE and another 100oz of ASE...

 

I can trade like a banker too...I love high prices!

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 16:50 | 1678555 speconomist
speconomist's picture

Pics 2 and 4 are the same.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 16:54 | 1678573 malikai
malikai's picture

That gold chart is perfect for the masses.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 16:55 | 1678575 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

So the chair satan is going to be buying some bonds next week eh?  The bernank must love diminising returns.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 16:56 | 1678577 Ghoaster
Ghoaster's picture

I just love that they told Timmay to shut up

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 16:57 | 1678583 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

Looks like Gold can do just fine regardless of money printing. That shows how fucked this system is. RESET TIME MOTHER FUCKERS.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 17:00 | 1678590 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Noticed that too EM.  If you back up enough from the chart, gold doesn't give a crap what the Bernank does.  In the long run, the trend is unstoppable.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 17:03 | 1678604 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Dangerous way to think. People said the same about real estate back in 2005.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 17:07 | 1678615 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

WD its dangerous not to get with the program ASAP.  Gold , in the physical form , has no counterparty risk (i dont want to discus esoteric issues such as armed robbery) and has NO LIABILITIES.  Discuss gold ownership v 90% mortgages or margin SOX accounts circa 1999 please?

Comparing the tech bubble and housing to physical gold is like comparing your childs finger painting to Picasso. They may look the same to the untrained retard but they are very very different.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 17:18 | 1678657 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

My point was to Smiddy's comment that the trend is unstoppable. In reality, trends change over the course of time. I'm not saying gold won't continue upward over time, but there may be better buying opportunities than right now. Getting locked into the mentality of "this trend is unstoppable" is dangerous. Is it that hard to see the logic in that?

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 17:45 | 1678754 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

i've tried to time the market many, many times and can tell you that it's not a good strategy. now i buy whenever there is a dip. if there is no dip, i just buy once every two weeks. so i bought some gold when it was rising to 1860 a couple of weeks ago. but i also bought some when it pulled back to 1760 yesterday. i don't really care since i'm long physical. and i bought most of my gold at 1,000-1200/oz.

oh yeah, silver is great, too. just keep converting your paper to gold or silver and keep trucking until the proverbial SHTF. then convert your PM's to land, commercial properties or if you have enough, buy yourself a small island and be your own government.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 17:56 | 1678775 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

I get it, trust me. I've been buying since gold was $900 and silver was $16, which means I came in kind of late, myself. In fact, I just took a small delivery from Gainesville Coins today. But to illustrate my point, back in the spring, when silver was all the rage, there was someone on here that posted he was selling all his shit and going all in on silver. It was trading for about $46 at the time, on the way up. A month later, it was trading at $35. I'm thinking that guy was probably feeling a little sick, if he was trying to maximize his purchase. Going all in at or near the nominal high strikes me as unwise. Believing that the "trend is unstoppable" may cause you to make some less than optimal decisions.

The reason I compared it to the real estate market was not because of the mechanics of the market, but because of the similar mind-set. People thought that real estate would go up forever, and we see how that turned out. The belief that the trend is unstoppable is a mind-set that usually proves faulty.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 18:24 | 1678838 Whalley World
Whalley World's picture

People thought that real estate would go up forever, you mean Sheeple.  Those idiots should have listened to Peter Schiff, Bill Bonner (Financial Reckoning Day) Jim Sinclair or Max Keiser who tell the truth.

Those dolts that bought the idea of ever increasing home prices were buying into the mainstream media hype.  Trust your sources and you will win.

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 10:42 | 1679665 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Speaking of Peter Schiff, if you haven't seen this recent video of him before a Congressional committee on the Obmam Jobs Act bill take the time to watch it:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BHLguFEN3M&list=FLDqTwQ_Aj90G1wgtmXVbQxA...

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 19:18 | 1678936 Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

I get it, trust me. I've been buying since gold was $900 and silver was $16, which means I came in kind of late, myself.

Those are post-TARP prices. Trust me, you are not alone in deciding at that time.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 18:29 | 1678844 Libertarian777
Libertarian777's picture

you're correct WD. You're referring to what Nicolas Taleb talks about, the turkey who for 1,000 days sees food coming from the same source. The turkey continues to gain weight in a linear fashion during these 1,000 days.

Nothing could avow that turkey that tomorrow, it will get fed.

 

Until 24th Nov. Then (in the turkey's viewpoint) a 'black swan' occurs and no food comes on day 1,001, but instead an executioner.

 

That being said though, for the forseeable future gold has a strong trend due to the extend of international euro and dollar currency debasement.

The black swan might possibly be if e.g. Bernake dies and an austrian school economist is appointed and jacks interest rates to double digits overnight.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 22:22 | 1679186 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Linear extrapolation is a product of linear thinking, thus the "this trend is unstoppable" mind-set. People have and will continue to lose fortunes with this kind of thinking.

If you don't use a linear extrapolation lens to view that chart, the rise in gold looks kinda tired. I hope it reverses hard, I'll back up the truck, because I think over the longer term, like 5-10 years, it will trend up, but not before a rather large correction.

But I could be wrong. Wouldn't be the first time.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 23:08 | 1679241 Hoody Who
Sat, 09/17/2011 - 10:05 | 1679627 prole
prole's picture

WonderDawg that is the million dollar question-

Is it Weimar or is it 1981?

Gold never "came back down" in Weimar. It went up forever (until a currency change)

But in 1981 au and ag "came back down" even to the point that a silver investor could have been wiped out or took a huge loss at least, a 30 year loss, more than that really.

We know what happened in the past, but wherefor tomorrow?

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 11:04 | 1679680 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

I agree, Prole. You have to assimilate your own information, analyze it, and make your own decisions. If you want to trade in this market, you also have to factor what the big market influences (TPTB) will do. Tricky shit for traders as well as investors (the difference to me being the time horizon for having your capital tied up). I don't have any "investments" other than some phizzy and some shares in a bear fund. I consider the bear fund a long term investment with a 3-5 year horizon, so obviously I see the long term (5 years) being down. As far as trading, I gamble a little but not all that much. I see a new low this year, after which I'll hope to ride a rather vigorous rally, probably up to the neckline of the recent H&S pattern, and when I think that rally has lost its legs, I'll start buying puts. The bear fund just rides on. If gold corrects, as I expect it to, I'll load up. If I'm wrong on that, my bad. Gotta call em like you see em, but stay nimble. I can't get behind any unstoppable trend kind of thinking. If I see I'm obviously wrong, I'll adjust.

But I don't know shit. I'm just a country boy trying to survive another tricky day.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 17:50 | 1678767 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

The other day somebody equted PMs with Beanie Babies. No shortage of dubious analogies 'round here.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 18:00 | 1678779 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Austrian theory begins with the axiom that humans assignment of "value" is a subjective process.  So that analogy makes sense from a "purist" Austrian perspective.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 18:09 | 1678801 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Yes - I get that. Contextually, Beanie Babies (and tulips, and '60s muscle cars, etc.) weren't/aren't perceived as valuable due to a lack of confidence in political/economic/social structures. I wonder if the reasons for subjective valuation are significant? I think so, but I'm no economist and I know nothing.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 18:29 | 1678847 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

The reasons for subjective valuation of any given resource could help determine which stage of market hysteria you're participating in, I'd say.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 20:04 | 1679025 InMisesITrust
InMisesITrust's picture

Only if using margin and you can not endure the volatility......yep, just like real estate.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 17:32 | 1678719 ouchtouch
ouchtouch's picture

The trend is totally stoppable, all the Bernank has to do is raise interest rates like Volcker did.  Then we would pay the enormous interest on the federal debt by . . . uh.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 16:59 | 1678587 Robslob
Robslob's picture

 

 

Need....more....time....to....accumulate....

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 17:01 | 1678594 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

Let's hope Ben offers up some tasty treats ...
My Oct Gold Calls expire on 27th Lol

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 17:18 | 1678655 NB
NB's picture

It's always a good time to buy gold.

If someone is crazy enough to take my paper for their gold I'm eager to trade... I just wish I had more paper to trade!

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 17:41 | 1678743 hackettlad
hackettlad's picture

Sorry, these graphs don't tell us anything about what will happen to stocks, all they do is look at historical performance.  And we know that is no guarantee for the future.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 17:46 | 1678756 Imminent Collapse
Imminent Collapse's picture

Just bought another 20 oz of gold.  My wife told me I was crazy when I paid $800 an oz for gold.  Said it was the highest it had ever been. Again when I paid $1,500, again when I paid $1782, again when I just bought it.  But I still think that it is cheap.  And I didn't leverage it.  If the SHTF, then she will be glad I did.  If not, I'll just hang onto it.  Either way, I am OK with it.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 18:01 | 1678777 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

In the unlikely event that gold declines significantly, you can have it melted and made into jewelry for her to wear.

Any complaints about you "losing money" would cease abruptly.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 18:02 | 1678784 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

It would make great cookware, too.

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 18:05 | 1680630 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

Stahl is better for cooking, Au for other things.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 18:08 | 1678799 Anonymouse
Anonymouse's picture

I know this is not news to anyone here, but the infuriating part of all this market manipulation (well one of them) is that the Fed's market manipulation simply moves money from one pocket to another.  They have taken it upon themselves to determine that borrowers, especially over-leveraged borrowers, should be rewarded and savers penalized.

Savers are hit from low interest rates (well below zero on a real basis) and from rapid dollar depreciation.

Beyond the morality of the issue, or even the moral hazard, who are they to decide who is worthy of receiving money and who is not worthy of keeping the money they already have?

It is obscene.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 18:08 | 1678800 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

Gold closed at $1,811.35 http://www.goldprice.org/spot-gold.html

 

Expect some fireworks next week.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 18:16 | 1678816 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

jIMMY, rOBERT, jOHN pAUL & jOHN bONHAM (Turn it UP on a Friday)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYWxE-ShdXc&feature=fvwrel

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 18:17 | 1678821 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Sorry to say, I am unable to make predictions with a high degree of confidence based on those images.  I suppose I'd be confident in saying that if QE 2.5 or 3 is announced, gold is not going to tumble.

I tend to think TA guys are a little nutty, tho.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 18:22 | 1678834 Religion Explained
Religion Explained's picture

With all due respect, there is now way that the start/end of each QE is really known, just saying ...

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 18:29 | 1678846 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

qe 2.5?  they are having a real hard time saying qe 3

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 18:31 | 1678848 riley martini
riley martini's picture

 Funny gold had a bigger move before , between and after QE -bond purchases -monetizing the debt.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 19:12 | 1678926 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

somebody better tell douchinger so he can go buy some doorstops....

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 23:28 | 1679272 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

Is anyone still paying one ounce of attentionto that useless fart?

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 19:20 | 1678940 rhinotrader
rhinotrader's picture

I will go long stocks, short gold. You people are the masses. 99% of people in this blog are long GLD. A little crowded don't you think? If I get more then 10 thumbs down.....I must be right.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 19:20 | 1678941 rhinotrader
rhinotrader's picture

I will go long stocks, short gold. You people are the masses. 99% of people in this blog are long GLD. A little crowded don't you think? If I get more then 10 thumbs down.....I must be right.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 20:04 | 1679022 TrulyBelieving
TrulyBelieving's picture

If you go long stocks and short gold, my guess is you are not right on at least three counts.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 20:32 | 1679061 TheAkashicRecord
TheAkashicRecord's picture

The combined trading accounts of everyone on this blog are probably about .01% of the value of gold traded in its various forms in a 5 minute window on any given trading day, so no, I don't think the trade is crowded based on the people on this blog all having long positions.  Retail investors don't move markets, individuals own only about 25% of equities and usually get suckered in to the tail end of trends, they don't start (or end) them.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 20:44 | 1679079 slavador
slavador's picture

rhino

When my filthy rich neighbor finally finishes liquidating his bad land investments  and shows me the twenty third 100 ounce gold bar he's bought, I will believe the top may be in sight.  

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 23:29 | 1679275 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

You will go long anus, and short brains. And you will lose.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 19:59 | 1679014 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

Then there is this.

 

ALBERT EDWARDS ISSUES WARNING: A S&P 500 'KILLER WAVE' Is Forming

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/killer-wave-formation-sp-500-2011-9#ixzz1YAADlWbg

Societe Generale's Albert Edwards points us to a terrifying technical sell signal in the S&P 500: the "killer wave." This formation was identified by Investors Chronicle's Dominic Picarda.

Here's how it works. The Coppock indicator--an esoteric momentum measure (Wikipedia description) --turns down giving a sell signal. This happened last summer. Before the indicator dips below 0, it moves up again, which it did in April of this year. The "killer wave" formation is completed when the Coppock indicator turns again. And what happens next is real ugly

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/killer-wave-formation-sp-500-2011-9#ixzz1YAA1svBS

Coppock, the founder of Trendex Research in San Antonio, Texas,[2] was an economist. He had been asked by the Episcopal Church to identify buying opportunities for long-term investors. He thought market downturns were like bereavements and required a period of mourning. He asked the church bishops how long that normally took for people, their answer was 11 to 14 months and so he used those periods in his calculation.[3]

A buy signal is generated when the indicator is below zero and turns upwards from a trough. No sell signals are generated (that not being its design).

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 21:03 | 1679097 samsara
samsara's picture

I look for more volatility(ie convulsions).   $5 swings in Ag and $100 swings in Au.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 23:40 | 1679285 xtop23
xtop23's picture

 Thats a sucker bet 

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 00:03 | 1679324 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture
How you know when you've been reading Zero Hedge waaaay too much Submitted by Save_America1st on September 16, 2011 - 11:53pm.
Hat Tip!


0  

Read the 2 comments under the article...hahaha!!!

SocGen's 6 Easy Charts On What Happens To Gold And Stocks Under "QE2.5"  

Looks like SocGen pulled a TGIF today and in response to its Corporate Market Alert, in which it asked the rhetorical question, "Fed QE '2.5': gold and equities to take off again?" it answers itself quickly and to the point in just 6 simple charts. Here they are...

Ancona

 

SWEET!!!!

Friday financial porn. Better than hot babes wearing catholic girl school uniforms without panties on!

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 20:17 | PingaYourFace  

No ... just no.  It's good stuff, but it's not better than hot babes wearing catholic girl school uniforms without panties on!

You're losing your mind.  :p

Sat, 09/17/2011 - 23:47 | 1681246 maxcody
maxcody's picture

Did you note how star struck Cramer was interviewing tim on CNBC.  It was like he went to Mount Olymus and met God junior.  Tim told him it would be all right - then why is his buddy Doug kass afraid to trade?

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