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SocGen's Take On The Greek Elections And What Happens Next

Tyler Durden's picture


SocGen summarizes today's Greek elections and their implication:

What next in Greece? As we head to press, the preliminary results (82.5% of national vote counted) of the Greek general election show 130 seats out of 300 seats to the pro-programme New Democracy Party and 33 seats to PASOK, combined the two pro-programme parties should thus have secured enough seats to form a unity government. The largest anti-programme party, Syriza, secured 71 seats, making it the second biggest party in parliament. Sunday evening, Presidents Van Rompuy and Barroso issued a statement welcoming the election outcome and noting that “The second Greek adjustment programme <..> is the basis upon which to build to foster growth, prosperity and jobs for the Greek people. We stand ready to continue assisting Greece in achieving these goals”. We expect to soon see a renegotiation of the target dates and a real effort to free up structural funds, etc. for Greece.


MARKET ISSUES: Greek euro exit fears are likely to ease for now, but even in this best case outcome, Greece will continue to struggle to meet programme targets and renegotiation with a possible third programme for Greece will soon have to be addressed. Moreover, this does not solve the fundamental issues weighing on Spain and Italy.

And as an added bonus: the French bank's take on the NEW QE:

Will the Fed adopt QE3? Yes! Will it help? Only at the margin. With economic data signalling stall speed growth for the US, we expect the Fed to lower its current 2012 growth outlook from 2.7%, narrowing the gap to our own forecast of 1.8%. This – and the risks from the euro area debt crisis – will allow the Fed to adopt QE3 at the June 20 FOMC. We estimate the Fed could extend twist by another $150bn, but our expectation is that the Fed will instead allow its balance sheet to expand a further $600bn, with purchases split 40/60% between MBS and Treasuries.


MARKET ISSUES: Opinions are increasingly divided as to whether additional QE will help – some even fear it could be counterproductive. QE works through three channels (1) the interest channel (borrowing conditions), (2) the US dollar (competitiveness) and (3) asset prices (wealth effect). We have long held the view that each new round of QE comes with diminishing returns. We nonetheless see the impact as positive – if nothing else giving the reassurance of a pilot in the plane.

All that said, in a global market in which only the next 60 seconds of trading matter, as beyond that anything is merely in the eye of the central planning beholder, and out of the purview of the newsletter one just spent $29.95 purchasing, it is all surely good enough.


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Sun, 06/17/2012 - 18:59 | 2535006 SHEEPFUKKER

Another day, another babble about the Euro being saved, and another raid on PM's. 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:17 | 2535031 AllWorkedUp
AllWorkedUp's picture

 Yep. Wouldn't be the same without the pm's getting creamed on any good or bad news.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:21 | 2535039 Killtruck
Killtruck's picture

Indeed. As many here have already stated, Greece is saved and the bullshitting continues.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:28 | 2535240 economics9698
economics9698's picture

The election was bull shit.  Fixed just like elections in America.  The masters want to give the peasants the illution of fair elections, nothing more.  

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:44 | 2535265 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

I guess with the latest news out of Greece, Angela Merkel, right about now, should be dancing a German jig.

German Jig

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 22:58 | 2535372 economics9698
Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:46 | 2535266 mcguire
mcguire's picture

one of the key ramifications of a greek exit was going to be the risk of contagion... and now with spain and italians spreads blowing out, it seems like we got there, greek exit or not.  

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 00:24 | 2535434 dexter bland
dexter bland's picture

So expect to see Spain and Italian bond yields fall tonight.

Also more talk of relaxing Basel, less talk of QE3.

EURUSD hard to call, short PMs might be the play.

Trade them, don't worship them.

Why no QE3?

From the article above

QE works through three channels

(1) the interest channel (borrowing conditions),

Rates are already very low. Actually a good overseas crisis may make them lower.

(2) the US dollar (competitiveness) and

Who are we trying to compete with here, Europe? Finish them off completely? Lower USD does not effect competitition with China, the rates are pegged.

(3) asset prices (wealth effect).

The asset prices that matter most to consumers are housing, not equities (which aren't far from their highs in any case). House prices are just starting to recover. To date, the main issue hasn't been lower rates, but the inability of many to refinance more easily at these rates. Basel modifications may help with this, but will pose a serious inflation risk in combination with further easing. 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:55 | 2535276 HomerToeclipper
HomerToeclipper's picture

I have a feeling you're right. As a matter of fact, I susepct alot of election riggning and cross-contry coordination and execution will be taking place at the expense of any type of democratic process in elections. The things needed to be done are far too sensitive and important to be left up to chance with the blithering masses.



Sun, 06/17/2012 - 22:20 | 2535317 CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

Whoever is responsible for the rigging should be fired, because they're doing a terrible job.  Should have nailed it the first go around.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:28 | 2535144 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Japan stocks rally 2% on early Greek election results. Everything is fixed!  



Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:55 | 2535191 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

The fact that the black hole that is known as Greece is still in the Euro (or hope to remain in the Euro) is more the reason that Spain and Italy is fucked...this market can rally all they want, but I aint certain it will last long.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:58 | 2535283 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Hong Kong shares jump after Greek vote. Everything is fixed!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:13 | 2535218 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

AllWorkedUp:           Try to be patient.  Central bankers desperately need to be buying now.  It'll go back up when they're done buying.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:51 | 2535184 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Agreed. The comatose patient has twitched and the world rejoices. The French have handed over the reigns in full to the socialists who no doubt can now reduce the retirement age to some new low. Europe as well as the USA have unemployment problems, excess capacity, falling property prices, insolvent banks and a host of other issues.

The election result for Greece is about as meaningful for the economy as its win against Russia. Great feeling for a few days but then that blasted reality keeps spoiling things.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 00:19 | 2535448 JeffB
JeffB's picture

Well if they lower the retirement age to 45 or so, that could really help the unemployement problem. A lot of new retirees would open up a lot of jobs for the unemployed.

Then printing hundreds of billions to trillions of new euros should help bail out those poor banks and sovereigns, not to mention allowing them to pump up the real estate values again.

Start retiring and print money for expenses!

That ought to fix things. What could go wrong?

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 05:35 | 2535682 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

If it were that easy we should print even more money and have everyone retire. I understand your thinking but it doesn't work. The USA has been printing like hell and can't even manage a dollar for dollar increase in GDP.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 09:37 | 2536052 JeffB
JeffB's picture

Yeah, I was being facetious. Maybe I should have said lower the retirement age to 40, eh?

or 30.

The key to a better standard of living is productivity. Instead of political infighting over getting the biggest piece of pie, focusing on making a bigger pie and more of them. That typically requires more savings and investment, which of course requires living below ones means to acquire the necessary savings for investment.

These idiot economists are all pushing us in the exact opposite direction... pushing for more consumption... lowering interest rates, printing money and things that can't possibly increase the size of what's produced. They're rewarding and pushing consumption and penalizing saving.

Consuming your seed corn isn't a good long term strategy for prosperity.


Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:52 | 2535185 AmCockerSpaniel
AmCockerSpaniel's picture

Greece will stay and so the printing will continue. This will devalue the Euro/USD. This will push up the price of PM's (long term).

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:23 | 2535231 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes.  And Greece will stay so long as their recalcitrance serves TPTB's printing agenda.  BTW central bankers are stocking up re Yes #4.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 02:05 | 2535529 Tsukato
Tsukato's picture

Fucking Greeks! What a disappointment. Thought they were going to bring it all down :( Anyway, I had a thought last night: Why aren't the Greeks leaving the Euro, and just using the $US? Could fuck off all those debts, not have to worry about a drachma devaluation, could trade Euros for $s, no problem. In fact it would be a coup de grace to jump into dollars after fist fucking the euro. It would be a helluva return on their exchange from euros to dollars too, cuz they would be abandoning the boat that they helped sink. Oh well.

I may be a fool. but it seems to me that everything happening now is nothing short of economic warfare, with the last standing being the victor?  The Fed keep conjuring money but it hasn't such a detrimental affect on exchange rates right? Why not invite all the periphery euro countries to dump the euro for $, and no matter how much printing Ben Shalom does, it won't matter because everyone will be running for dollar safety. Could be that this will be the case against all currencies until someone backs their with gold. Am I mistaken? If so, please fill me in.


Mon, 06/18/2012 - 05:51 | 2535688 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Hey buddy we are all looking for answers and any honest thought should be expressed, BUT BUT BUT I think you are mistaken.

The US dollar is not a solution because you might not have noticed that things are not too good in the USA despite Ben printing plenty of them as well as handing them out to banks at zero interest rate.

Currencies will have value when they are attached to reality and the biggest reality is precious metals.

If the Greeks could bring the system down when they only account for less than 1.5% of European GDP, that should be a clear sign to you about how fragile, messed up, corrupted and interlinked the system is. It's like saying that Greece could bring a whole building down by breaking a window.

Destruction of unbacked and unserviceable debt is the thing that comes close to solvng the problem.

By the way, i am not knocking you and I genuinely feel your frustrations.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:00 | 2535008 celticgold
celticgold's picture


Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:41 | 2535167 Soul Train
Soul Train's picture

Following is a list of key events facing European leaders in the aftermath of the Greek election.

June 18 -Greek leaders start efforts to put together a coalition.

June 18-19 -G-20 summit in Mexico.

June 19 -Spain sells 12-month and 18-month bills. -Greece sells EU1 billion in 91-day bills.

June 20 -Germany sells additional EU5 billion in two-year notes.

June 21-22 -Euro region and European Union finance ministers meet.

June 21 -ECB Council meeting (officially a non-policy meeting). -Merkel and German opposition discuss European fiscal pact. -Spain sells bonds.

June 22 -Merkel, Hollande, Monti, Rajoy meet in Rome. -Germany plays Greece in the quarter finals of the soccer European Championships.

June 26 -Spain to sell 3-month and 6-month bills. -Italy to sell bonds.

June 28-29 -EU summit. Leaders will discuss a blueprint for deeper euro integration authored by Draghi, Barroso, Rompuy, Juncker.

June 28 -Italy to sell bonds.

June 29 -Germany’s lower house likely to ratify ESM and fiscal pact.

July 5 -ECB council meeting (policy meeting).

July 15 -Greece will run out of money by mid-July, Greece’s Syriza party said on June 13.

To contact the reporter responsible for this story: John Fraher at

To contact the editor responsible for this story: John Fraher at

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:04 | 2535206 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Forget the timetables they have never produced anything but meetings and motherhood statements.

The election win by New Democracy will prove to be a poison chalice and then what happens?

I have friends who have been sending medication to relatives in Greece for some time. The unemployment situation is far worse than reported because thousands of people have not been paid for months but still cling to their jobs in the hope that things might reverse.

Young people leaving by the thousands and many more others are heading back to their villages in what is a subsistence but somewhat more sustainable move.

If Greece has not turned into a humanitarian disaster by Christmas I will be surprised. Unless of course Europe starts sending aid.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:30 | 2535242 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Surely at some point they will beg to be annexed to Germany.......?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:57 | 2535281 thebark
thebark's picture

If that happened the fat lazy bastards would have to work...and they surely dont want that!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 22:10 | 2535301 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Hunger does funny things to people.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:57 | 2535280 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

thank you for this bit of insight PP. much scarier on the ground then the media dare report, all to keep markets  up and everything status quo. TPTB are out of control. 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:01 | 2535009 Newsboy
Newsboy's picture

The #1 party ND will try to form a ruling coalition, No Go.

Then the #2 Syriza party will try. They will have the #3 Pasok with them, but will they still fall short?


Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:18 | 2535011 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture


Edit: <sarc on>

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:04 | 2535014 duckarooni
duckarooni's picture

How much do the private banks which own the Fed get paid for this work?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:05 | 2535015 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

John Embry probably squealing loudly again about to have a heart attack after watching gold get smashed again.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:20 | 2535038 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

As funny as this is tis when gold crossed the 1500 mark that the euro zone's fate was sealed no? Sure "there will always be a euro"...just as there is still a ruble and there is still a real. But to what economy do we affix said currency to? The only answer I see is to the place that invented the euro as well as controls the majority of the other currencies namely New York. Should be a wild one Europe. As Shakespeare taught us however "told by an idiot signifying nothing." We all know better in these here parts which is why we should have already moved on. Unless of course you fancy yourself a "founder of the feast." in which case I bid you "good luck" and "adieu."

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:48 | 2535086 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

What market actions give YOU heart attacks Robo?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:59 | 2535100 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Gold drops from $1621.08 to $1604.91  in less than a minute today.  No one will want to sell his gold that cheaply and recklessly unless it is to scare of investors.  

It is clear that the Fed working with big banks has been manipulating gold and silver prices so that the dollar remains the undisputed reserve currency.

We have corrupt, crony, controlled markets in the USA.

Ted Butler accused the US government of allowing JP Morgan to manipulate silver just on Friday:

"I’m disclosing for the first time that the U.S. government has given JPMorgan the green light to manipulate the silver market. This fact explains the shenanigans in the silver market. It answers all the questions and exposes this tawdry affair for all to see.

The scandal recently became more outrageous. The June Bank Participation Report, as of Tuesday, June 5, along with the COT confirmed that JPMorgan’s silver short position has increased by at least 5,000 contracts in the past two reporting weeks. That is the equivalent of 25 million ounces of silver, truly an enormous amount in a two week period and about equal to all the silver produced and consumed in the world in the same period. I calculate JPMorgan’s net short position in COMEX silver futures to be between 16,000 and 17,000 contracts. JPMorgan has been the sole net commercial silver short seller over the past two weeks. That is the clearest proof yet of manipulation. A market dominated by one buyer or seller is the ultimate definition of manipulation."

Paul Craig Roberts also accuses the US government of manipulating the price of gold last week:

Dr. Roberts says, “The cliff dive we are experiencing in housing isn’t over,” and precious metals prices are “being suppressed.”  Roberts says, “Gold prices should be rising.  Why? Because the debt is rising.”   What is the reason why Dr. Roberts thinks the suppression game has gotten so intense?  Dr.  Roberts says, “The fact that they are driving the price down suggests to me the situation is getting more desperate.”

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:03 | 2535205 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture


And we always can count on some worthless fucking troll to give a down error for someone telling the truth.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:12 | 2535217 Dermasolarapate...
Dermasolarapaterraphatrima's picture

$1,627 right now....seems like they cannot stop reality. I'm waiting to see what oil does.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:56 | 2535278 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

this hasn't been a gold game for some time. this is a "euro game" now. and that would be "thousands of tons of gold" as an afterthought in that game. i mean we're talking capital raisings beyond belief, massive issuances of debt, the BRIC's sink like bricks, gasoline dirt cheap, oil falling, pension funds going under, scandals galore, attempts at a cover up of it all by going all in in the Middle East. I'm sure i've left a lot of things out as well. Enjoy!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:10 | 2535117 OneTinSoldier66
OneTinSoldier66's picture

But Gold hasn't been 'smashed'. Apparently even TPTB can't put a lid on it. So I don't know what there'd be to have a heart attack about. It's down by like $6 right now. Big whoop. It's still up nicely from what it was at last month. That's not smashed. So, I suppose you'll probably be disappointed that John Embry isn't likely to have a heart attack.


And you might want stick with what you know by getting back to your robotic HFT's.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:57 | 2535193 Hulk
Hulk's picture

We flat now. Your buddy's take downs have a half life of about an hour these days...

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:58 | 2535195 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

'twas simply the pause that refreshes....

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:08 | 2535017 MeBizarro
MeBizarro's picture

This gov't will fall by the end of the summer.  Greece is already starting to run low on medicine and within another month or two is going to start running out of basic critical maintenance drugs for certain patients which are essential to maintain life.  They will be available on the black market of course (Greeks always have been experts at smuggling into and out of their country) but not without cash and a huge markup.  Ability to pay for energy supplies is also becoming a huge issue including refined oil products. 

Once medicine becomes tight enough especially for critical medicines necessary for maintaining life in certain patients, petrol supplies start to dry up, and the military largely stops getting paid or runs really far behind on payments, you will have a military coup in Greece and installed to maintain basic civil order.  Just a matter of how it transpires.  It just won't be an outright coup with old-school junta style. 

My bet is that this happens by the end of the year in Greece.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:19 | 2535036 XitSam
XitSam's picture

OK, say a military coup happens. How will the military government pay for medicine? For gasoline? Pay themselves? Will they stay in the EZ and force "austerity" at the point of a gun? Will they leave the EZ and try to pay for things with a greatly devalued drachma?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:32 | 2535056 MeBizarro
MeBizarro's picture

Can't have a coup and stay in the EU.  I imagine they leave, implement a new drachma, and go through but maintain order largely through the gun. 

Only question is whether US intelligence services and foreign policy will allow for this and the subsequent issues it economically and militarily. 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:12 | 2535124 lewy14
lewy14's picture

I'm betting they could have a coup and stay in Nato.

What is the alternative? Let them fall completely into Russia's orbit?

And as a member of Nato, they may be entitled to certain "military aid"...

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 22:32 | 2535314 Element
Element's picture

I doubt they would fall into Russia's sphere easily, despite buying advanced Russian SAMs.  What can Russia really offer them long-term?  The Greek military, especially air force is dependent on western parts and can not afford to replace the air force with new-build Russian jets and weapons.  And Russia can't afford to give them away (except maybe refurbished hand-me-downs).  It could come to that for a decade or two though.  But what does Greece offer Russia?  I can't even answer that.  The main lesson is if you sponsor Greece they bleed you dry.  But it's somewhat unavoidable, and here's why;
There are two key features of the 'developed', 'advanced', 'rich' world that really stand out;

(1)  They all used credit to pretend they were much richer than they really are.

(2)  Most have used copious credit lines to pretend they were militarily much more formidable than they were ever capable of sustaining long-term.
This strategic facade has been taken as far as it can go.  Now this is unwinding and mean-reversion is on, with an overshoot of capabilities below long-term means.  And for Greece that would be very low (advanced) capabilities indeed. 

This then creates a series of power vacuums, as falls in readiness and loss of capabilities occur, so dramatically escalating strategic uncertainty and real vulnerabilities.  History shows opportunists are more likely to opportune, in these circumstances.  It happened soon after the Soviet Union collapsed too.

But NATO will most likely persist in a weakened form even WHEN the Eurozone fails.

Core countries understand the need for a viable periphery defense, so even WHEN the PIIGS do leave the Eurozone, with a devastating wave of private and sovereign defaults, NATO and its political process still will have to be pragmatic about it and of necessity ensure these states can remain stable. So they still need to foster, facilitate and provide minimal acceptable levels of security and defense capabilities, and maintain interoperability training, and maintain defence alliance linkages with the core. 

I suspect past blatantly unaffordable credit and defense deals have been oriented towards propping these states for that strategic purpose. 

In the end the European core will still need to come back to Greece again and offer credit and weapon sales.  Greece knows this.  One way or another all will be forgiven and this necessary process will begin once more. 

This I think is why Greek debt-default keeps happening, and why states never seem to learn their lesson, as they have no choice in the end but to lend the money.

The otherside of this mean-reversion process is that those states that are genuinely wealthy and have managed their finances and budgets and defense spending properly, will remain more-or-less militarily strong, fairly secure and politically stable.  The tide is now going out in defense, and we are going to find out who was swimming naked, and which ones really are the stronger.  The strong ones will then necessarily increase defense spending, extend capabilities further, and ramp readiness and reaction capabilities, to cover the new strategic liabilities created by their suddenly much weaker neighbours.

It remains to be seen who can do this.  Obviously this is going to create big issues and alliance re-definitions.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 22:52 | 2535358 MeBizarro
MeBizarro's picture

I would highly doubt they leave NATO even with a coup because the US simply wouldn't allow it nor have the Greeks raised any objections about NATO because they largely haven't had to do much in Afghanistan anyways.  

My bet is that the next coalition gov't breaks down completely at some point this summer, civil order starts to fail apart because people haven't been paid for months, and that the Greek military (with backing from NATO and US) steps in to suspend civil gov't and install a temporarily regime that will restore law & order and be in place until civilian elections can be held either later in 2012 or more likely at some point in spring 2013.  Call it what you like but it is still a military coup.  I am sure the CIA has already looked and vetted senior Greek military officials that they know they can work with & will be pro-Western. 

What gets tricky is how they work out the numbers - including existing bonds and ECB loans that Germany and a few other Euro nations are largely on the hook for, preventing all of the nasty swaps from kicking in and nuking the Western banks, setting up a new currency (drachma which I think is the only answer after they look at it & all of the crappy options on the table), keeping the lights on in the interim, and given the Greeks all kinds of quiet guarantees and economic assurrances so they won't be left pissing in the wind once they set up the new currency & elect a new governing coalition in '13. 


Sun, 06/17/2012 - 23:09 | 2535374 Element
Element's picture

The US has to stay clear of it, it can't get directly involved for the simple reason that the Greek people themselves despise or mistrust PAX-AMERICANA, and are anti the US military (probably moreso even than Iranians and Pakis).  The US must work with proxies and Europeans to have influence in Greece.  Greeks don't really want to be aligned with anyone, ever, and they hold US culture and power in especially low-regard.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 23:19 | 2535398 MeBizarro
MeBizarro's picture

Of course the US will stay 'officially out of it' just as they have since since WW2 and the OSS was heavily involved in Greece even before the war was over.  CIA has good practice too with pulling off the juntas in Greece in '67 that ruled Greece from 1967-74.  I would be very curious to see profiles of key Greek military officials and they were trained & what postings they have in NATO offices.  Those will be the people that the CIA will look to.  Need to be at Col. rank and higher (General is better), in command of either important Greek military assets, or stationed at key points in Greek especially in Athens.    

The key is to not make this look like an outright military coup with a ruling junta.  That won't fly.  What it has to be is the military stepping in 'preserve civil society' and to restore law and order to protect civilians or some line of similiar bull@hit the press and citizens in US and EU will buy it enough to not raise holy hell about it.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 01:06 | 2535478 Element
Element's picture

Basically, what that means is to get rid of people's capacity for political choices, to the state's NET benefit.

Obviously that would lead to further political radicalism and actual terrorism, as it has done before.

That may not be the best route, even in a state of emergency.

I suspect the military would want to avoid these very counterproductive, fractious and damaging options.

Even if certain corrupt or thuggish individuals or criminals view that as a golden opportunity.

The only thing worse than a bankster funded police-state, is a militarised bankster police state, hunting domestic terrorists.

The Greek people need to take care not to bring that on, and I'm sure they are well aware if the risks and damaging down-sides to that.

Ultimately the military must assure its capacity to function in defense of the country, and that is what they'll do, but external powers may use this need as a vulnerability to regain leverage over the political and financial processes of the Greek state.

Domestic or foreign agent-provocateurs could try to incite a military takeover of that sort.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 00:04 | 2535421 XitSam
XitSam's picture

edit: deleted

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:37 | 2535063 bahaar
bahaar's picture

A military govt. will not pay for medicine or gasolne.  They'll simply prevent hoi polloi from rioting/protesting against shortage of medicine or gasoline.  They'll probably stay in EZ because that helps the elites protect their wealth (in Euros) from devaluation

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:08 | 2535018 This is the end
This is the end's picture

I am sure this time it will work because if there is one thing that the previous 4,213 QEs have done is focus us on solving our many problems (debt, deficits, entitlement bombs etc.)!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:15 | 2535028 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

it would be a steal at twice the price

still...mittens?  have you gone sac-0?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:17 | 2535030 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Too bad everyone forgot about the other key election in Egypt. It's a nightmare coming true:


Egyptian Presidential Election Thread


Latest update:

UPDATE 18:50 ET – From al-Ahram:


12:26 Mursi (56.4 per cent) is now ahead of Shafiq (43.4 per cent) in Ahram Online’s latest countrywide tally.


A total of 492,080 votes have been counted.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:28 | 2535047 Zgangsta
Zgangsta's picture

Ow! Have Mursi!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:38 | 2535163 stickyfingers
stickyfingers's picture

Send in the Turd Blossom.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:26 | 2535236 Jake88
Jake88's picture

Stop the planet I want to get off.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:17 | 2535032 areopagetica
areopagetica's picture

Any entity with resources to help Sourther Europe should be saving them for direct humanitarian assistance, and not wasting resources on banks and sovereigns, which are clearly insolvent on a consolidated basis.  People will be desparate for help within months.  I am surprised this alternative approach to using the scarce resources that are available from Northern Europe and the IMF is not being discussed.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:28 | 2535048 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i discuss scarce resources all the time;  long before you got here and hundreds of times after

and i use similar reasoning to yours, but from a logical stance as oppsed to nannyisms and "shoulds"

of course there are better choices, but people who can't think straight won't see them clearly;  puuting "banks and sovereigns" in the same basket would certainly be an "altenative approach" tho!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:30 | 2535147 areopagetica
areopagetica's picture

Banks and sovereigns are in the same basket in Southern Europe.  The LTROs funded banks who have been buying sovereign bonds. and the negative feedback loop between them has been well documented on this site.

If suggesting that resources be directed to people in desparate conditions is a nannyism or a naive "should" in your mind, then shame on you.    One place to start might be an article just published by Kirk Douglas here Be a Spartacus.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:12 | 2535220 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i still think you may wish to differentiate between banks and sovereigns and perhaps learn why that might be wise

and yes!  there are/may be negative feedback loops as you describe

but don't you understand that if the sovereigns had truly regulated the banks and or/ let them fail early in the process, the negative feedback loop might have been broken or arrested or at least slowed, even tho the banks and sovereign have admittedly been very naughty

again if you and others can not understand how things are designed to work and comprehend why the process in question might not be operating smoothly you will not understand why resources are being mis-allocated in the first place

the problem is not caused by lack of charity, but by criminality;  therefore, justice is required before mercy here

i'm sorry, but i don't visit that website among many others

you are very much the troll, tho!  and you certainly won't be accused of not  thinking straight by most here today!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:43 | 2535262 areopagetica
areopagetica's picture

Thanks.  (I think!)

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:45 | 2535074 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

A huge number of ZHers have lost their recall of what is what.

GREECE HAS NO MORE NEAR TERM PRIVATE DEBT.  It was expunged as part of the PSI deal. 

The remaining debt is owed to the EU, IMF and ECB.  There is no way in HELL money is going to be sent from the EU to Greece to do anything substantial other than service those remaining loans.  Humanitarian aid?  You think they'd do that and gut their own loans?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:41 | 2535168 areopagetica
areopagetica's picture

You are right.  Still, if calamity is inevitable (and I agree that it is), will the world let humans starve?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:39 | 2535256 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

No.  But they'll let them be annexed to Germany.  Greece:  the new East Germany.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 22:07 | 2535292's picture



You are right.  Still, if calamity is inevitable (and I agree that it is), will the world let humans starve?


Tens of thousands of humans starve to death each and every day. While our protectors and providers in government claim that they wield power in order to make the world a better place they have not once attempted to feed the world or clothe the world or house the world. But they have marshaled the ability to destroy the world dozens of times over with weapons of mass destruction.

And that's the name of that tune.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 01:19 | 2535451 Element
Element's picture

Buy bird seed and feed local birds daily for 2 years. Observe resulting accelerating population bloom, and the radical changes to previous independent behaviour.  After 2-years stop feeding completely, cold turkey.  Observe resulting behaviour, particularly calling to beg food, tapping on windows, desperate flying into glass.  After several days they begin to do what birds do, they look for grass seeds, etc.  They will remain in the area and appear disturbed by the sudden change and sense of betrayal.  After one week they'll give up pursuing free meals, and begin to behave more normally.  After two weeks they're fully independent, stronger, healthier, more alert, population-bloom has ended, dependence behaviour almost gone.  Some don't make the transition.  These are eaten by predatory birds and cats, which do 'make it'. 

Feeding wild animals does not do them any favours, because the food will at some point suddenly stop.

In many countries the excessive creation of dependence via the open-ended philosophy of endless aid provisioning has resulted in precisely this situation.  It's destroyed the capacity of people to fend for themselves and retarded the necessary learning processes and derailed survival capacities thus generated massive population bubbles, that then encounter normal cyclic water and crop failures, that then leads to many times larger famines and calamities.

And when the survivors of these humanitarian-aid induced famines recover from this sudden loss of support, due to the high unmet emergency demand, they're a bit angry and reactive, they become radicalised, perhaps open to fundamentalism and ideology, and certainly prone to fighting for survival and control of an area (see Somalia).

So the NGO's and Govts rush in with more humanitarian aid to the 'new' famine crisis zone, to suddenly find the locals with guns have taken a dim view of them and their kindly humanitarian activities and values, that don't reflect their realities and experiences, and which they know will lead to another population bloom, and an even worse famine, and war to come over what remains.

Rinse and repeat.

Humanitarian aid must be used for emergencies; it's got to be practical and must not just become an abused pseudo-moral play-thing of what are in fact cruel short-sighted chaos-inducing 'humanitarian' idealists in the NGO and charity/aid industry. 

Creating a false sense of ease and comfort and fostering unhealthy destructive addictive dependence is NOT humanitarian aid.

Other states providing endless welfare for Greeks is a hideous, destructive ideology-driven proposition.  The Greeks are going to become poor yes, but they're also going to become much stronger, more independent, clearer of thought and perceptions (once they have time to reflect again), than almost anyone else in this deeply fucked-up Eurosphere fantasia birdcage.

Every storm brings both destruction and new growth.  It's never just destruction.  Euro break-up will in fact be both the best of times, and the worst of times.

Greece is going to ultimately be much better off outside of it, the anomalous free-meal is coming to an end.  The diet is about to change, it is going to get noisy and desperate as that happens (in all of the PIIGS).

But they're going to be stronger after this, and much more suspicious of aid givers, and loans, and of foreign interlopers, than ever before, plus a fair bit more aggressive in protecting their needs and interests, and not subordinating these to geographically removed, indifferent bankster-controlled central planners, that are doing them no favours at all.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:28 | 2535049 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

So we take away the Fed's Raison d'etre for QE3 - which is what drove Thursday's and Friday's rally and we are left with...

Spanish bond yeilds at 6.80% and rising...

Italian bond yeilds at 5.90% and rising....

Speculation of Spanish bank bailout doubling or tripling in size...

Speculation of imminant bailout for Cyprus....

Speculation of Greece, Ireland and Portugal asking for easier bailout terms...

Eurozone falling deeper into a depression as lending markets slowly freeze up (or will all the money taken out of Greek and Spanish banks be redeposited on Monday?),,,

Speculation of bank bailout packages for Italy and France....

Socialists completely in control of France, and determined to keep spending....

Developing hard landing in China....

US Fiscal cliff with 4-5 weeks left to change policy in the middle of a heated election....


Summers not over yet boys.  Shouldn't have3 built this election up as D-Day.  We just gave the markets a reason to rally.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:37 | 2535064 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

It reminds me of the old saying

"Rome didn't collapse in a day"

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:32 | 2535149 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

And every great journey ends with a single step.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:44 | 2535174 Hulk
Hulk's picture

ooh, good one !!!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:08 | 2535212 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Watch out for that last step.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 00:01 | 2535432 XitSam
XitSam's picture

Some days you get the elevator, some days you get the shaft.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:16 | 2535226 covert
covert's picture

sc is a bunch of rude assholes.


Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:34 | 2535055 kristian01
kristian01's picture

the "world is coming to an end" posts are coming soon to this site, just give them a couple hours to lick their wounds and re-orient the bluster.  they threw most of their apocalyptic copy behind the anarchists, so it's gonna take a little time.  

by tomorrow, they'll be pointing out that ND winning is actually far *worse* than had Syriza won outright, and will lead to the end of the US, Eurozone, BRICs, Japan, and most likely Vanuatu within the next 2 weeks.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:36 | 2535060 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Thanks for pointing this out. What would we do without you?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:43 | 2535070 kristian01
kristian01's picture

not sure, but prob worse than without you

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:48 | 2535085 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

There is a failure to identify what the definition of "end of the world" is.

Generally speaking, you have to kill every human on the planet to get an end of the world.  Anything less is merely bad news.

Nobody thought Syriza winning was going to kill 7 billion ppl.  Even oil depletion won't kill all 7 billion.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:52 | 2535094 kristian01
kristian01's picture

are you sure about that? there must be guest post here in the past couple weeks about how a Greek default and resulting Euro collapse will lead to global famine, pandemic, nuclear holocaust, and a reversion to AD 1000 population levels.  just use the search feature in the top left corner.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:00 | 2535110 SDRII
SDRII's picture

sell side equity analyst? I thought that species went extinct?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:05 | 2535112 kristian01
kristian01's picture


Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:22 | 2535138 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

New Democracy is apparently not going to form a coalition government with PASOK. I think they might end up doing it, but PASOK didn't want to roll over and get nothing. But the WORST possible situation would be another election in 2 months. The markets would have to deal with another two months of uncertainty, and there is nothing the markets hate more than uncertainty.

I'm not saying end of the world apocalyptic stuff. I'm saying that the Eurozone looks even more screwed up and more people will flee European equities and debt for US equities, T-bills, and gold. And the Fed would love the first two and absolutely hate the third.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:11 | 2535122 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

 in the top left corner???

K_01!  dude!  turn you screen 90o clockwize! or try sitting up if you can!

at least you shut rex up pretty good there for 6 weaks;  i'll bet he'll treasure that one!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:32 | 2535150 kristian01
kristian01's picture

my bad, upper right!

here's hoping Rex will shut-up, but alas not likely.  he's still in a self-congratulatory afterglow after citing "Hanlon's razor" in a post yesterday.  he's so smart!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:47 | 2535180 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture


Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:52 | 2535096 gnomon
gnomon's picture

Timing is everything in life.  Just think of zerohedge as a clock striking as many times as it takes to verify that indeed the Ponzi of all Ponzis is ending.   And the emperor would still be naked whether we said so or not.


Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:39 | 2535066 vegas
vegas's picture

The world is coming to an end ... all is doom. Buy beef jerky and bottled water; make sure all of your blow-up dolls are in good working order, etc. I'm trying to get Jenna Bush on the phone and see if she will renegotiate my sharecropping lease in Paraguay, but so far she isn't answering.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:43 | 2535071 surf0766
surf0766's picture

The election will not change the math. They are broke. They will still be broke tomorrow .

There will not be a hope rally .

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:08 | 2535118 Alpacanio
Alpacanio's picture

Check that, MORE broke tomorrow.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:44 | 2535073 IndicaTive
IndicaTive's picture

"by tomorrow, they'll be pointing out that ND winning is actually far *worse* than had Syriza won outright" Will they be wrong, if what you say will happen, happens?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:49 | 2535090 kristian01
kristian01's picture

it's a comment about predictability...this site is rapidly becoming a parody, it's like the Fox News of the global financial crisis.

but you might be *will* be far worse, for all the shorts on this board  

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:53 | 2535097 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

"but you might be *will* be far worse, for all the shorts on this board"

I always find statements like these funny. As if you know any single person that reads or posts here. The belief that you know and understand people here is nothing more than hubris.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:56 | 2535101 kristian01
kristian01's picture

it was a joke, dipshit, calm down.  would you dispute that this website has a somewhat bearish slant? my god, go back to your cave already

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:58 | 2535107 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

You reinforce my point exactly. I'm a professional and live in one of the largest cities in the world. But keep on stereotyping and concern trolling for us cave dwellers.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:02 | 2535111 kristian01
kristian01's picture

we're very impressed with your credentials of having a job and living in a city, that's something most people can only aspire to

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:05 | 2535113 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

And we're all very impressed that you can see through the noise that obviously we are too stupid to see through. That's my point and that's why you're an arrogant asshole.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:11 | 2535121 kristian01
kristian01's picture

I continue to be impressed with you, regardless of how you may feel about me

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 22:56 | 2535367 MeBizarro
MeBizarro's picture

Sadly I understand what you are saying especially a lot of the idiotic and misguided survivalist bullsh!tters you get on here about being full prepared living in a remote area with tons of previous metals, food, medicine, blah blah blah. 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:47 | 2535082 XtraBullish
XtraBullish's picture

When it comes to the PM's, thank the Lord they are here because they won't stay here long...Espagne and La France will take them to double their current levels. Greece is passe...

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:48 | 2535087 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

Am I the only one who finds the results of the French elections a lot more consequential in the big picture than the results of the Greek elections?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:52 | 2535188 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture




Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:54 | 2535099 Akrunner907
Akrunner907's picture

I predict a Dow up 2.5 percent for tomorrow's action.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:55 | 2535102 Rogier
Rogier's picture

Greece really ís Uganda.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:57 | 2535103 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Bottom line is that the Eurozone Crisis is just another event to whip people up into an unecessary frenzy.


Meanwhile, in Europe, life goes on.

Check out the record auction prices paid for classic cars at a show in Monaco on May 14 this year:

Five million for a 1957 Ferrari, as an example.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:05 | 2535114 Conman
Conman's picture

Do you just state the obvious or what? High end is doing fine- the 18th billion article, statistics from the government all say this. where teh fuck you been, ever hear of occupy its all about the wealth gap.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:17 | 2535131 Tortfeasor
Tortfeasor's picture

Check out the record prices paid for: insulin, petrol, bread, train tickets, etc, etc.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:26 | 2535141 diesheepledie
diesheepledie's picture

Exactly right. The wealth PRODUCERS are still doing very well. The sheep are getting fleeced, but that is cyclical. If the top wealth producers are doing well, it spells good things for the future. When this trivial nonsense gets sorted and a properly empowered EU is realized, then maybe the cattle will have some higher grade feed. Until then it is time for those that matter to consolidate. 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 22:15 | 2535310's picture

The paper pushing rehypothicators at the top are not wealth producers. People who create desirable goods and services with their minds and their hands are the producers of wealth.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:59 | 2535198 erg
erg's picture

Your comments relevance has a half-life of about 30 minutes.

John Embry probably squealing loudly again about to have a heart attack after watching gold get smashed again.

Gold up a $2.51.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:01 | 2535204 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Hey I tried to tell them there are other commodities out there.  Gold and Silver down, copper, platinum and palladium up.  Its a crowded trade, time to look elsewhere

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:38 | 2535254 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

@ Robo

That Ferrari 625 TRC is a work of art. Only two were ever made. Much more valuable now and forever than a stack of paper backed by nothing. At 5 million EU, I say well bought.


Mon, 06/18/2012 - 00:15 | 2535445 erg
erg's picture

Here's what a quarter-scale Ferrari 312 PB looks like


Sun, 06/17/2012 - 19:56 | 2535104 max2205
max2205's picture

All time highs in the bag now

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:07 | 2535116 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Just what the Jewsih banking criminals needed to run stocks higher and knock gold.  This story is so fucking old it is become a joke!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:11 | 2535123 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

This rally will be sold off by tomorrow afternoon just like the spanish bailouts. It was never a rally based on anything other than money printing announcements. If Ben does not announce something forget it. The market will force them to print regardless of events.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 22:18 | 2535315 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

If I was Benny I'd make you bitchez force me to print. I'd kick back and let the market glide on the hopium retard trade and hope my printing line in the sand never gets tested.

If he is thinking this way I wonder where his max pain level is..  900 maybe ? 1000 is a nice round /es number or better yet 1006.66 would do in a pinch as well.  Once this frantic freak show exhausts itself in the equity market,  I'm thinking down she goes.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:26 | 2535125 diesheepledie
diesheepledie's picture

Maybe the greedy Greeksheeple are finally getting it. They need to play nice and bow to their masters. Did they really think they were above serfs in a land that makes nothing but olives and yogurt? Time to pay and return to your place. This means austerity and responsibility. This isn't 1950. People are living longer. They can work longer. If you follow the trend in lifespan increase, and the fact that few modern jobs require hard labor or extreme dexterity, there is no reason that a healthy 80 year old should not be working. Greeks are getting it. This is a very positive turning point for Greece, the Euro, and the global financial system. I think in 100 years we will look back at this as the birth pangs of a new global centralized financial system where, through technology and modern economics and monetary theory, we could finally have peace and stability. The idea of personal and national sovereignty will be viewed as another dark age, full of conflict and selfishness.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:59 | 2535199 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

>>>>>>If you follow the trend in lifespan increase, and the fact that few modern jobs require hard labor or extreme dexterity, there is no reason that a healthy 80 year old should not be working.

Are you out of your fukking mind?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 22:08 | 2535296 nmewn
nmewn's picture

"Other great minds feel as I do..."

Try and get over yourself.

"Robert Benmosche, chief executive of the recently bailed-out and largely government-owned American International Group, told Bloomberg from his seaside villa that he thinks the eurozone debt crisis will push the retirement age in the region way up."

So all it takes to be "a great mnd" is to be a fucking crony parasite?

Thats an instant

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 22:18 | 2535316 PeaceLover
PeaceLover's picture

Shit heads,
Occupy wall street should Occupy ass holes living rooms.


All the problems aren't from the poor.



Sun, 06/17/2012 - 22:12 | 2535307 PeaceLover
PeaceLover's picture

thats not a great mind at work that a fucking thief talking

Check out Carlos Slim

What amazes me is Mexico they kill everyone little kid, druggie in recovery, each other, but a guy that rip's off everyone Telnor Carlos's company  get's a pass??

It like a high jacking one guy with a box cutter take the whole country for a ride.



Mon, 06/18/2012 - 05:49 | 2535690 e-recep
e-recep's picture

Benmosche sounds very Jewish to me. What a coincidence. All the corrupt and bailed-out stinkholes have a Jew at the top.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:36 | 2535250 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

If Sphincter Soros and Warren Turd Buffet can work in their eighties, then why can't grandma?


Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:33 | 2535246 dougngen
dougngen's picture

Dude, take your globalist bullshit back to Huffpo. Go suck off Paul Krugman and get on the Hillary U.N. gun ban petition with George Soros, you fing shill.



Mon, 06/18/2012 - 02:12 | 2535543 diesheepledie
diesheepledie's picture

We need to be careful about gun banning. There is a class that should be allowed to have arms. The same class that should be allowed to vote - if we keep this archaic system and don't do the right thing. The right thing being adoption of a global monarch.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 23:01 | 2535375 MeBizarro
MeBizarro's picture

The human body starts to physically/mentally break down in the late 60s/early 70s.  Very few people are capable at age 80 of holding a full-time job even one that requires minimal physical effort.

As for humans, we will always kill one another and in relatively large numbers.  It is the way of our species.  You can either be forlorn, apoylactic, or just accept this truth and do you best to try avoid using violence in your daily life.

Mon, 06/18/2012 - 02:07 | 2535532 diesheepledie
diesheepledie's picture

"truth is the first casualty of war"

All of you turds that support the sheeple. Look at what democracy has done. Where has it got us? The world will be begging for a monarch within the decade.


Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:16 | 2535129 Ponzi Unit
Ponzi Unit's picture


Big drumroll and then not even a rim shot.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:21 | 2535136 chump666
chump666's picture

More American and European centric bullsh*t.  Greece is nothing to nobody, just a dying state.

Big fears =  Asia.

Simple.  Maybe throw in a trillion $ ecomomy like Spain and Italy yields and CDS blowout (which will add to the derivative collapse. 3 - 6 mths)

Rallies are capped in a tight range, volatility about to strike week or so out (once the bond market works out that Greece is a basket-case pointless entity), Spain yields spike.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:23 | 2535140 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

ES being forced up.   Central banks, around the world, will jack the shit out of their markets tonight for 'confidence' and 'confirmation'.

What the fuck else is new?

ZH has about run it's course now.  Maybe they can resume the opposition when my 4 year old is about 20 or so.

Until then, we're going to get fucked relentlessly.  Get used to it.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:08 | 2535211 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

I think Monday was pretty telling.  We had a huge run up that was then faded but the bears couldn't take the market down.  The rumor on Thursday showed how coiled the market is to pop.  Hopefully people either got out or got flat for the weekend but the path of least resistance for this market is clearly up right now.  How high until people start fading again? Who knows but shorts are going to need a strong stomach I think.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:45 | 2535153 Element
Element's picture

any agreement by the core to keep the PIIGS in the system implies not lending money to them, but just giving them the money, while calling it a conditional loan, to try and thus 'purchase' a European Federal entity (Germany, + bankrupt France + core hangers-on + PIIGS supplicants).   

The Core : "Here's 25 billion euros to please stay in the fold for a few more months."

Greece :  OK, sure, but you realise you're never getting this back, right?

The Core :  "ssscch! ... we don't want to know about that, just stay in the system."

Greece :  "Ok, that works for us, but don't forget, you aren't ever getting any of it back, it simply isn't feasible."

The Core : "Whatever, would you please hurry-up and sign the documents!"


But, all of the PIIGS will still come apart at the seams anyway, due to trade/competitiveness imbalances, and being completely broke of course.  And Berlin will then be forced to pull the plug on the eurozone regardless.  The core simply can't afford to keep it going and nor will voters let Merkel do it and saddle them with massive taxes and debt.  Nor can Germany hope to generate (or scare-up) the political consensus necessary to bind it together politically, as subordinates, given that the rising decrepitude of economies throughout the Eurozone is leading towards the political opposite direction--to political separatism.

So core voters are going to be faced with bonds losing cred, bank collapses, huge taxes, huge debts and high inflation, with an unstable debt-default-riddled Euro system, with the prospect of more of the same to come, if the core attempts to, "Keep the Dream Alive".

Good on them for trying it, but it's DOA.


Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Dutch disease

The truth of the matter is that any policy that holds Club Med in the euro will ensure that Mrs Merkel’s Christian Democrats are annihilated next year, as it involves entirely unreasonable burdens for ordinary Germans. So Berlin should be rooting for Grexit after Sunday’s elections and an anti-euro balance of power in the new Dutch parliament, to provide cover for German exit from this failed euro-project."

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:58 | 2535285 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Rockerfeller & Rothschild Inc., due to their investment in globalization, desperately want to see a United States of Europe or a European Federal entity.  The PIIGS collapse could be just the catalyst to effect that. 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 22:42 | 2535347 Element
Element's picture

But isn't it the case that historically their "first principles" position has been that they care more about who controls the money supply, rather than the political structures (puppet state) behind this?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:37 | 2535157 Herbman
Herbman's picture

Please can someone throw some insight on this matter? When we buy gold, are we buying paper gold or are we buying real gold? If we are buying paper gold isnt it possible for us to have same problem with fiat money where the total value of paper issued is much larger than existing gold? What if there is a run on the gold market where people want to redeem their gold?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:53 | 2535190 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

Steady dude back up a bit

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 22:37 | 2535342 OneTinSoldier66
OneTinSoldier66's picture

When we buy gold, are we buying paper gold or are we buying real gold?


If that's really a question that you don't know the answer to, you'd best figure it out pretty quick or I'd say you're a lost cause. But I'll try and answer it.


If you are buying the GLD ETF or COMEX Gold contracts, I would call that paper gold.


If you can trust your broker I would trust in purchasing Eric Sprott's PHYS, James Turk Goldmoney, or Peter Schiff's accounts, for some examples... as a real gold. If you go to your local coin shop and/or purchase online for delivery, gold bullion coins and bars, that's buying real gold. It's almost getting to be a worry for me, just speaking for myself, that I wonder about purchasing online for delivery. Because if we have a crash/meltdown(tinfoil hat, check) will my goodies get delivered? I'm going with local coin shop from here on out myself.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 22:53 | 2535361 nyquil762
nyquil762's picture

You are exactly correct. When you can't see it or can't touch it, you don't own it!

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:38 | 2535160 carefreemanjoe
carefreemanjoe's picture

Markets would have been up by 1000 points if SYRZIA had won the elections in greece in total confidence that we are getting a QE3. Now it is only a little bit. Up anyway. Quite a circus. 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:38 | 2535162 Paul Atreides
Paul Atreides's picture

Solution: Convert 114 tons of gold holdings into silver and issue a silver Drachma.

Will they do this? No. The banking cartel is still in control of politics for now but their time is running short, the whole world is wising up to the scam. Spread the word and keep pulling your wealth out of the banks in protest.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:48 | 2535177 chump666
chump666's picture

I mean f*cking Greece which has collectively lost in mind: nazi greek assholes fighting with commie loons on live tv.  The "Pro" bailout party wins, after all their insanity against bailouts/austerity etc!!!  The mere fact that the whole market is focused on a insane country also indicates the market is losing touch with reality.

And reality will hit like a freight train very soon.


Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:03 | 2535203 Element
Element's picture

Economic conditions juice's hardline ideology --> conflict.  The polarisation starts at street level, and suburb level, then towns become polarised, then between cities, then one side takes over the state, this happens in every state, then the nations are differently polarised, needs, interests and differences of view intensify  -->  conflict between nations



Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:47 | 2535179 geewhiz190
geewhiz190's picture

australia, korea, japan all gap up between 1 1/2 -2% on opening

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:56 | 2535192 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Let us count the number of reforms they have not implemented. But let me not be too bearish.  If the entire deal hinges on this new party/ coalition doing more reforms to get more money the country will still fall into the toilet. They can't stop it using European Austerity methods.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:00 | 2535200 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

None of that means jack shit.

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 21:18 | 2535228 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Neither does a run up in the market.

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