Socialist Hollande, Who Wants Full European Treaty Renegotiation, Increases Lead Over Sarkozy

Tyler Durden's picture

With under 3 months left until the first round of the French presidential election on April 22, it maybe prudent to start paying attention to France, where socialist presidential candidate Francois Hollande has just widened his lead over President Nicolas Sarkozy despite a flurry of measures being advanced by the conservative leader to boost employment and competitiveness, a poll showed on Tuesday. This is quite relevant for Europe, as Hollande has made it very clear that none of the recent treaties and agreements would stand in their current version if elected, in the process overturning austerity and the position of the ECB in Europe's bailout org chart, and will gradually add an element of uncertainty to the second most important country in Europe's core, even if no longer AAA-rated. And for those who say there is no chance Hollande could take over, according to IFOP Hollande would trash Sarkozy in a runoff election by a whopping 58% to 42%, a result that even Romney and Diebold would be envious of.

From Reuters:

The opinion poll published by IFOP/Fiducial showed Mr Hollande extended his lead for the first election round on April 22 to 6.5 percentage points from 4 points two weeks ago, with 31 per cent support against 24.5 per cent for Mr Sarkozy.


It found Mr Hollande could win a second-round runoff on May 6 with 58 per cent versus 42 per cent for Mr Sarkozy, an increase of two percentage points for Mr Hollande versus two weeks ago.


The poll was conducted shortly after Mr Sarkozy, eager to cast himself as busily working to solve France's problems up to the very end of his mandate, was interviewed on prime-time TV on Sunday to detail reforms he aims to push through parliament ahead of the election.

Could it be that even the French are finally starting to wise up to the bullshit of their politicians. If so, how long before the same finally happens in America?

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GeneMarchbanks's picture

No chance or so I've heard.

Fortunate Fool's picture

Hear again, you heard wrongly. There is no chance Sarkozy will get re-elected. I will go even further. There is a good chance he will not make it to the second round. Don't under-estimate how much people hate him in France.

TruthInSunshine's picture

What's happening in terms of grassroots anger in northern Europe is the most underreported and significant development in some time, in terms of representing a direct threat to the elite and their hope of saying all the right (or at least acceptable) things to calm the passions of their citizenry, and falsely appease the very genuine fears their consituents have (and for good reason), while trying to play for time and create a trickle-drip method of keeping the EU alive, by more slowly debasing living standards.

What's interesting is that the dynamics have changed so suddenly that the elite may have lost the ability to contain the fundamental truth that any propping up of the EU disaster will inevitably lead to massive devaluation in living standards, and therefore, they may have already lost any chance of stopping a wildfire of backlash that will see many incumbents (pro-EU incumbents) get kicked out of office in the coming tsunami of grass roots rage.

I wish Europeans calling the EU experiment for the crime that is the best. They have been sold out by their so-called leaders, and payback time has come.

youngman's picture

Hollande will get elected....he is promising everything...shorter work week...more pay...better de da....sounds good to me if you don´t know anything about economics...Obama will do the reductions...more unemployment just watch...

Eeyores Enigma's picture

Right on youngman - can't have all that crap and still have enough left over to let us FIRE (leach) economy and politico type folks skim off the cream.

The ONLY solution is to cut wages, benefits, and social services.

prains's picture

The ONLY solution is to cut wages, benefits, and social services.


Think again, you're missing the source of the problems

Zero Govt's picture

there's 2 sources of the problems (finance)

a). bankers extending debt

b). taxpayers allowing the parasites of society to rob (tax) them

the easiest fastest most effective solution for people is to address Source Code 2

Stop Paying Your Taxes

Problem Solved

Gee, the solution was always within ourselves all this time... fancy that

The Axe's picture

Baltic Dry at 680...holy dried crap...    This reminds me of the  BRK long / INTC short trade of the over-hyped CNBC  NASDAQ  rally  1998.... Maybe this trade is its reverse evil twin trade  Long Baltic Dry/ Short AAPL 2012

Irish66's picture

Chart for home prices verses BDI, please all over the world

SeverinSlade's picture

At least ze French actually pay attenzion to vhat is going on in ze world.  Americans on ze other hand...No so much.  Ze most important thing in America at ze moment iz American Idol and ze Bachelor.

HD's picture

In 2008 all I wanted was stability. After everything that's happened since - I'm kinda rooting for a little chaos. Go Francois go!

freethinker4now's picture

Long long long long long long long long long Long Long LOng Long Long long long long long long long long long Long Long LOng Long Long long long long long long long long long Long Long LOng Long Long long long long long long long long long Long Long LOng Long Long long long long long long long long long Long Long LOng Long  time

PaperBear's picture

Is this Hollande guy another globalist ?

living on the edge's picture

We will know for sure if he is elected.

Free_french's picture

He is a french jackass. We have  a lot of them and we vote for them.

Instant Wealth's picture

A "France first"-Socialist.

Sarkozy is the conservative dude.

lolmao500's picture

If the French wised up, they would be voting for LePen who wants France out of the EU. Not another globalist even more globalist than Sarko.

Free_french's picture

The most brilliant is François Bayrou, the others are just $£%-**µ

falak pema's picture

so brilliant that he's like a star up in the heavens, unreachable, unfathomable and totally ANDROMEDA!

lolmao500's picture

I like some of his positions, but he's a globalist. He's for more EU with even more integration, but instead of Germany ruling it all, it should be France.

Sorry but Bayrou ain't cutting it.

Fortunate Fool's picture

What has he done during his terms as a Minister?

scatterbrains's picture

Guys, let go of the crack pipe if you think Goldman will allow this guy to win.

lolmao500's picture

Yes they will. The socialists are even more pro-banks than Sarko.

Fortunate Fool's picture

Yeah right... From his presidential speech... In french and below a poor english translation. 


"Dans cette bataille qui s’engage, je vais vous dire qui est mon adversaire, mon véritable adversaire. Il n’a pas de nom, pas de visage, pas de parti, il ne présentera jamais sa candidature, il ne sera donc pas élu, et pourtant il gouverne. Cet adversaire, c’est le monde de la finance. Sous nos yeux, en vingt ans, la finance a pris le contrôle de l’économie, de la société et même de nos vies. Désormais, il est possible en une fraction de seconde de déplacer des sommes d’argent vertigineuses, de menacer des Etats.

Cette emprise est devenue un empire. Et la crise qui sévit depuis le 15 septembre 2008, loin de l’affaiblir, l’a encore renforcée. Face à elle, à cette finance, les promesses de régulation, les incantations du « plus jamais ça » sont restées lettre morte."


In this battle that is starting, let me tell you who my real opponent is. It has no name, no face, no party, he will never turn his candidacy, he will not be elected, yet he governs. The opponent is the world of finance. Before our eyes, in twenty years, finance has taken control of the economy, society and even our lives. It is now possible in a split second  to move staggering amounts of money, to threaten states.

 This influence has become an empire. And the crisis since September 15, 2008, far from weakening, has strengthened further. Against it, this finance, the promises of regulation, the incantations of "never again" have been ignored.

Alex Kintner's picture

Mr Hollande's Hopus.

blabam's picture

Ca't wait to see France explode in the comming years!

Fortunate Fool's picture

How much debt to GDP in the US again? 

battle axe's picture

Promise everything, and get elected, don't worry about minor things like debt load and the bond market, I mean hey, the bond market will not rip off your head (sarcasm).

Fortunate Fool's picture

The thing is, he has pretty much promised nothing except to balance the budget... From his speech (translation below):


" Pour maîtriser la dette, je rétablirai l’équilibre budgétaire en fin du mandat qui me sera confié. Pour atteindre cet objectif, je reviendrai sur les cadeaux fiscaux et les multiples niches fiscales accordées depuis une décennie aux ménages les plus aisés et aux plus grosses entreprises. Cette réforme permettra de dégager près de 30 milliards de recettes supplémentaires. Mais dans le même temps, les dépenses de l’Etat seront maîtrisées. Toute nouvelle dépense sera financée par des économies, le nombre total de fonctionnaires n’augmentera pas"



To control the debt, I will restore a balanced budget by the end of my mandate. To achieve this goalI will come back on tax breaks and the many tax loopholes granted for a decade to the wealthiest households and larger companies. This reform will generate almost $ 30 billion in additional revenueAt the same time, government expenditure will be controlled. Any new spending will be financed by savings, the total number of public servants will not increase"


ArrestBobRubin's picture

Pomme frittes a la Freedom? Sacre Bleu!

Good on ya frog dude Hollandaise, keep on keepin' on. Sink Sarko significantly, si'l vous plait.

Free_french's picture

"Could it be that even the French are finally starting to wise up to the bullshit of their politicians. If so, how long before the same finally happens in America?"


Not really... More BS, milk and honey for everybody for Freeeeee !...

marcusfenix's picture

"hope and change" comes to France?

if I were a politician with my eye on the manning the front desk in France, I would probably be saying the exact same thing right now.

the question is does he actually mean it, any of it or, like here in America is it just convenient election year campaign propaganda? say what they want to hear, get the votes, then do what your told once the teleprompter starts relaying orders from above. 

Dick Darlington's picture

OT: Update on our favorite bank *drumroll* Dexia

     Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) -- The French government has approved a
new plan, drawn up by investment adviser Rene Ricol, for the
local government-lending business of Dexia SA, Le Monde
reported, without saying where it got the information.
     State-owned Caisse des Depots et Consignations will take a
35 percent stake in Dexia Municipal Agency, the entity which
holds 77 billion euros of local government loans, Le Monde said.
The French state will take a 25 percent stake and La Poste, a 5
percent stake, according to the daily newspaper.
     The rest of the unit’s capital will continue to be held by
Dexia, according to Le Monde. This is a change from an earlier
plan where Caisse des Depots was to take a 65 percent stake in
the unit, the newspaper said.



Bossuet's picture

Hi, Hollande n'est pas socialiste, il se situe plutôt au centre.

Free_french's picture

Il est socialiste, c'est François Bayrou le centre.

Nussi34's picture

All French are socialists, in case they are not communists

Bossuet's picture

Hollande s'attaque-t-il à la structure d'ensemble du système ? Non.

Je ne tombe pas dans les facilités de langage ou dans les opérations de propagande. Hollande n'est pas socialiste.

falak pema's picture

parlez vous anglais? Or must we all speak Occitan to be truly understood?

Nussi34's picture

The French never learnt that the glory days where the world spoke French are over. In addition they are still struggling with having lost their colonies and the world influence that came with it. This is the reason why they are trying to build a Eruopean superstate. Thanks go they will fail and will just be a meaningless nation on a soon devestated continent.

falak pema's picture

no kidding? You sound more religious and sanctimoniously anointed than the Pope, you must have a direct line to the know-all.

Bossuet's picture

Je vous conseille vivement certaines études, sur la chute des empires notamment !

Voilà qui vous invitera peut-être à un peu de modestie.

Fortunate Fool's picture

The world can speak a better english than yours, that's for sure... fucking illiterate!

falak pema's picture

A striking difference between Sarkozy and Hollande is their treatment of fiscal policy which will obviously by ratched up in current austerity scenario by all parties. This is MOOT pre-election question; how austerity hits the individual tax payer. 

Hollande has promised : All capital gains and financial profits will be on progressive basis for each tax payer in step with the level of personal tax he pays. His fiscal policy only includes a new TOP niche of 45% fiscal tranche for all individual salary revenues exceeding 150 000 EUros/yr. All other existing tranches of current fiscal scheme are retained in his new package. And no VAT increase on any products across the board. He tries to protect consumer consumption level of GDP.

Sarkozy has promised : Increase of VAT (across board sales tax)  by 1.6%. PLUS,  his tax reform puts French capital gains, financial revenues tax at 40% across the board. Making France the HIGHEST PAYING tax country on capital revenues! 

This newly concocted, frantic knee jerk by Sarkozy in the melt down of his popularity of recent weeks has caused additional hilarity in press and population.

Here is a right winger in power spot, known notoriously for being friend of the rich, having in the past given them all sorts of tax perks, now panicking and making France the highest capitals gains/revenue regime in Euro zone, 10 points more than Germany, his iconic model in all these days! Sarko is Merkel fan when it comes to modernising France. Whereas the socialists, known as friends of lower income and middle class, present a BALANCED progressive approach which will hurt the uber classes more but not the low revenues, on their capital gains, interest earnings.

Oh the irony of political shenanigans in eleventh hour catch up clutch play. What a pinch hitter Sarkozy is trying to be and he's scoring blank strike upon strike; two strikes...will he walk or will it be stricken/striked out??

(I'd say "struck out", but apparently you guys say "striked out"! Just asking).

Looking very bad! And the media will now give him hell for this new botch up of capital gains tax + VAT increase. 

On the foreign policy and Euro policy side Hollande is more NWO antagonist (in words) , whereas Sarkozy is full out NWO compatible. Hollande wants french troops out of AFGHan by end 2012; Sarkozy sent them in against public opinion, has now revised (in LAST WEEK) pullout deadline to end 2013, from initial end 2014 plan. Sarkozy is in full knee jerk; as he aligns himself to public opinion. Bad sign, as gone totally defensive now.

Hollande has said: My main international adversary is global FINANCE. He wants to kill the market shenanigans and regulate markets, renegotiate Euro treaty to put Euro bonds as priority. If he comes in Merkel will have a tough time with France as he is SAYING he will be adamant in pushing back bankster control of eurozone.

Will he do it??? Lol, ever seen a socialist deliver the goods? But its his election spiel. Anyways, we all know these politicians don't control much, its the market that controls them...until it breaks down.  Hollande seems to be counting on financial breakdown, more so than Sarkozy, who is all-in in this current crazy Euro play with Merkel.  

Mercury's picture

Is Hollande pushing to have France be more socialized by (cede soverignty to) Europe (Germany) or is he thinking that France will be in charge of socializing everyone else?

Instant Wealth's picture

I think he said, all the decisions made at the last 17 EU crisis summits have to be re-negotiated. I call it the "May 2012 time bomb".

ZackAttack's picture

What's the problem with these people? Haven't they ceded control of their elections to huge multinational corporations so that train wrecks like this don't happen?

GFORCE's picture

These polls are useless. You need to wait until the real thing when the deceased get to cast their vote and bags go missing.

autonomos's picture

Unconventional interview about french politics:

The 100 Trillion Dollar Man's picture

Will DSK be out on the campaign trail with Hollande?