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Some Market "Fun With Numbers" From Art Cashin

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Art Cashin shares this amusing market "performance" anecdote which should come as no surprise to anyone who follows the uber-volatile chaos that the stock market has become.

Fun With Numbers - A friend passed along some fascinating stuff from Michael Higley’s weekly “By the Number$” note. He begins with a review of the whipsaw nature of the S&P this year:

During the first 4 months of this year through 4/29/11, the S&P 500 gained +9.1% (total return). From 4/29/11 to 10/03/11 (i.e., approximately the 5 months that ended just 2 weeks ago), the S&P 500 lost 18.6%. But in the last 9 trading days through last Friday (10/14/11), the stock index gained +11.5%. The net YTD result for the S&P 500: down 1.1% as of 10/14/11.

Higley then notes some quirks about timing:

The S&P 500 is down 1.1% (total return) YTD through Friday 10/14/11. If you were out of the market for the 3 worst trading days of 2011, your YTD gain is +16.5% (source: BTN Research).

Naturally, there is a flip side to that coin:

If you were out of the market for the 3 best trading days of 2011, your YTD loss falls to 12.7% (source: BTN Research).

That certainly makes you think again about a buy and hold strategies. Always a novel nugget in BTN.


 

And for those needing yet another analogy for the stock market, here is a comparison of the European daily rumormongering Groundhog Day to that tried and true staple of efficient markets - the "Town Crier"

 

Town Crier Attempt Produces Market Tears - It is hard to believe in an age of Twitter and Facebook, but for hundreds of years, the closest thing to a news bulletin was the update from the Town Crier. You know the bit - “Hear Ye, Hear Ye. It is ten o’clock and all is well!” Simple. Reassuring but with little or no detail.

The European banking crisis seemed to have reverted to the Town Crier system on Monday. As markets were opening around the globe yesterday, the Town Crier announced that - “It’s October 17th and all is well.” He added that the EU Finance Ministers had set themselves a hard and fast deadline for a rescue plan for the banking system. That deadline was October 23rd, which is when the EU summit is due to convene. No details. No process revealed. Just a vague reassurance.

The initial reaction of the markets was an extension of the sigh of relief rally. But, when they realized the Emperor had no clothes, things headed south.

 

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Tue, 10/18/2011 - 09:28 | 1784771 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

The Careless Whisper Morning Report

 

China Arrests Wal*Mart Execs; Future Stores Put On Hold

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-17/wal-mart-asia-chief-takes-ov...

Graphic Video: NYC Banker Police Watch, Do Nothing, As Man Stabbed On Sidewalk; Thug Didn't Threaten Citi Or Chase

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/ny_crime/2011/10/17/2011-10-17_horrific_...

Blackberry Offers Free "Texas Hold 'Em Poker 2" For 3 Days Outage

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/technology/2011/10/free-blackberry-apps....

Charlie Gasparino: "Occupiers" Call Each Other "Comrade"; No American Flags In Zuccotti Park; Federal Reserve Has Already Been Nationalized; Propensity For Violence At Zuccotti Park

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/new_york_marxist_epi...

Video (Full Version With Delectable Godfather's Girls): Song & Dance Man Herman Cain Mocks John Lennon With Back-Up Gospel Choir; Imagine There's No Pizza, I Couldn't If I Tried...

http://blogs.roanoke.com/dancasey/2011/10/herman-cain-channels-john-lennon/

Banks Could Deny Florida Residents Debit Cards If Proposed Law Passes

http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/10/17/2459021/bill-would-prohibit-debit-...

MLK Memorial At National Mall; Made In Communist China

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2011/1016/MLK-Memorial-From-China-with-love

Video: U.S. Marine Sergeant Drills NYC Banker Police Into Stunned Retreat; "There Is No Honor In What You're Doing"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WmEHcOc0Sys

San Francisco Mayor; Hire Convicted Felons First, Get Taxpayer Money

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2011/10/18/MNT31LISS...

Billionaire Mayor's Domestic Partner GF Sits On Board Of Citigroup And Brookfield Properites (Owner Of Zuccotti Park); Mayor Says They Only Talk In Bed & It's Dirty

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/18/nyregion/bloomberg-says-tent-city-at-w...

Video: Family Feud Question; Name Something You Put In Your Mouth But Don't Swallow

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YHnhbEzJAS8

 

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 09:44 | 1784801 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Commit a felony, get a job.  And some still don't believe Amerika is ass-backward.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:42 | 1785058 Bob
Bob's picture

What kind of future do we have when you don't have to wait until you get the job to commit the felonies?

These people just don't know how to delay gratification. 

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 09:30 | 1784775 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Art is a great guy, but he's touch is a little off.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 09:50 | 1784815 ToNYC
ToNYC's picture

"The S&P 500 is down 1.1% (total return) YTD through Friday 10/14/11. If you were out of the market for the 3 best trading days of 2011"

 

Lucinda Williams did a sweet one on "Those Three Days".

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 09:33 | 1784782 AngryGerman
AngryGerman's picture

6 days...

like

... the number of talents of gold Solomon collected each yea

... the number of the beast

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 09:34 | 1784783 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

If, if, if...if your Aunt had balls she'd be your Uncle.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 09:36 | 1784787 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Looks like a 90% bad news day so get ready for the PPT sticksave by close.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 09:42 | 1784796 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yet another market factoid to ponder Art, if you were in the market buy-and-hold since 1999, you havent gained jack shit.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 09:43 | 1784800 stiler
stiler's picture

"six hundred, sixty and six.."

 

in Hebrew, the number of his name, the Hebrew alphabet having numeric equivalency.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 09:48 | 1784808 oogs66
oogs66's picture

pimco was half right about the new normal...it is 2%...the daily moves in ES

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 10:13 | 1784915 Bob the Horse
Bob the Horse's picture

Can anyone explain what the point of this Cashin note is?

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