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Cash For iClunkers? Some Observations On Sequential Apple Revenue Growth

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Without trying to take away from Apple's blow out earnings, a quick look at the Apple data sheet breaking down revenue and unit sales by geography points to something rather curious. While unit sales in Q4 were fine, with a modest drop in the US, even as European sales posted the biggest sequential increase on record at 306K (from 1,176K to 1,482K), one wonders just how sustainable this in itself is, now that Europe has officially entered a recession, especially since the incremental revenue in Europe in Q4 was also a record $3.9 billion (of the total $18 billion sequential increase). Yet nowhere was this quarterly surge more evident than in the US: the increase in American sales was a unprecedented $8.1 billion sequentially, from $9.7 billion to $17.7 billion (which means margins are blowing out: how long until FoxConn has something to say about this?). While most of this is to be attributed to the iPhone 4S launch in the quarter, the question then is just how sustainable is the new trendline growth if one normalizes for product cadence (yes, we hate that word too), or the ability of the company to reinvent itself quarter after quarter. With the iPad 3 expected this quarter, and the iPhone 5 the next, will Apple be a "product to product" company going forward, and what happens with baseline revenue growth ex-new product innovation? Or how about self-cannibalization? Not like we are saying anything new here, but the value of Apple is in product innovation, which is nowhere better seen than in the sequential Q4 revenue. Will this innovation ability stay with the new management? And how much of the Q4 sales surge was, sad to say it, the Steve Jobs death factor? Finally, the fact that in Q4 AsiaPac revenues were less than a year prior, does this mean that even with the 4S release, Apple has now lost the Asian market to cheaper, pirated, or Google-based competition? Finally, in a tried and true tradition of instant gratification (credit funded naturally), how much of the explosion in the December 31 quarter sales is simply a "cash for clunker"-like forward shifted of purchases that would have otherwise happened in the first quarter of 2012?

Sequential Mac Unit sales by geography:

Sequential change in total revenues by geography:

 


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Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:04 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The sheeple will starve to death before allowing their iPads/iPods/Macs to be pried from their cold, dead hands.

Give us iTunes & streaming iContent [Real Housewives of --insert plastic, toxic city of choice here--], or give us death, bitchez!

An iPad in every pot!

Molon Labe, bitchez!

 

*Never mind the Texas Instruments miss, nor the other bellwether misses so far, stock junky/gamblers of the world - unite.

*Apple is now the anti-General Motors of the 1960s to America. As Apple goes, so goes the country - NOT!

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:04 | Link to Comment flattrader
flattrader's picture

I'm not into iCool and iConsumption...and if I want a toy, I can buy a sub-$200 10 in. tablet that has the same chip as the iPad with a lot of the same features, webcam etc...and comes with a keyboard and case included (so it "feels" like a netbook) and it's expandable and it's Android market.

Yeah, iDon't get it either.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:08 | Link to Comment Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

The Careless Whisper Late Day News Update & Threadjacking

 

Citibank Sends 1099s To Its Customers For Their Free Frequent Flyer Miles

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-lazarus-20120124,0,1228880.column

Mayor Bloomberg; The Time to Start Buildings Is When Labor Is Cheap, When There's Land Nobody Else Wants; Silverstein Stops Construction On WTC 3 -- No Tenants

http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/politics/2012/01/5110906/bloomberg...

8 Month Unborn Killed -- Prosecutor Refuses To Call It Murder; "Aborted By A Bullet"

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/crime/jury-finds-man-guilty-of-first-d...

You Can Now Get Arrested In Charlottesville For Having A Backpack

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/01/24/2953565/police-powers-during...

Rand Paul; TSA Scanners Are Rigged To Go Off    VIDEO

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9afpVN4ors

Newt Promises: Get Money, Get Cash  VIDEO

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whFBCIzwxp8#t=1m18s

Indy Film Producer Wins Contest For Chevy Ad; To Be Played At Superbowl  VIDEO

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ae52ourE3Pw

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:39 | Link to Comment Fukushima Sam
Fukushima Sam's picture

Could Apple have teamed up with the big-media lobby to see MegaUpload shut down to protect their own business model?

http://www.digitalmusicnews.com/permalink/2011/111221airvinyl

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 21:29 | Link to Comment Hulk
Hulk's picture

Thats Charlotte CW, not Charlottesville. Jefferson would not approve...

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 22:49 | Link to Comment Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

my bad. charlotte, north carolina.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:11 | Link to Comment Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

People going to Europe to buy stuff (Fashion goods, Iphones) to take advantage of the 'cheaper' EUR....I guess you will see less fickle foreigners in your local malls in the States. European retail sales set to surge at the expense of US retail sales.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:32 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Cramer has an $1815 price target on Apple (strike date June 18th) and Abby Joseph Cohen has a spooz 1776 call out, both by year end (non-Mayan Calendar).

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 20:06 | Link to Comment Executioner
Executioner's picture

but... but... but... Reggae Midgeton has called for Apple tops all the way through 2011, always with the "i told ya, i told ya, i am awesome" meme whenever Apple dropped -1%.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:07 | Link to Comment French Frog
French Frog's picture

"does this mean that even with the 4S release, Apple has now lost the Asian market to cheaper, pirated, or Google-based competition?"

I think that Reggie (Middleton) has been hinting this for quite a while now (credit where credit's due).

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:12 | Link to Comment Mid-Ocean
Mid-Ocean's picture

Looks like they did pretty well in Japan where the 4S was released already. China's 4S release date was Jan 13th. That statement could be proven right in time, but I'd hold judgment on that for a quarter or two.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:13 | Link to Comment flattrader
flattrader's picture

If not now, soon I imagine.  I was stunned by what I found for the price...and I spent a great deal of time searching digital mag/blog reviews and user reviews.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:09 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

LOL...the tools on Wall Street ramped TXN after that report, completely ignoring the implacations of the details surrounding the company's plans...you know, before they sold the crap out of it.

Am I the only person left who, seeing a qtrly report from Apple lift the Qs by 1.1%, recognzies that as yet another sign of just how screwed up this market is?  Just who does the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street think they are impressing with these computerized gyrations?  

As far as I am concerned, Apple isn't even an American company.  Were it the case, it would certainly be investigated for its horrific labor practices.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:18 | Link to Comment alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

"Apple isn't even an American company. Were it the case, it would certainly be investigated for its horrific labor practices."

That statement could be applied to many many companies that, once upon a time, made products in America. Very few are left.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:26 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

...yet, ironically, all of them have their hands in Joe Taxpayer's pocket, spending millions on lobbying...to gain billions of dollars in favors and special treatment...while they employ Chinese people. 

 

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:31 | Link to Comment flattrader
flattrader's picture
iDisgusted...

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/22/business/apple-america-and-a-squeezed-...
...Not long ago, Apple boasted that its products were made in America. Today, few are. Almost all of the 70 million iPhones, 30 million iPads and 59 million other products Apple sold last year were manufactured overseas. Why can’t that work come home? Mr. Obama asked. Mr. Jobs’s reply was unambiguous. “Those jobs aren’t coming back,” he said, according to another dinner guest...
and
...“Apple’s an example of why it’s so hard to create middle-class jobs in the U.S. now,” said Jared Bernstein, who until last year was an economic adviser to the White House. “If it’s the pinnacle of capitalism, we should be worried.” Apple executives say that going overseas, at this point, is their only option. One former executive described how the company relied upon a Chinese factory to revamp iPhone manufacturing just weeks before the device was due on shelves. Apple had redesigned the iPhone’s screen at the last minute, forcing an assembly line overhaul. New screens began arriving at the plant near midnight. A foreman immediately roused 8,000 workers inside the company’s dormitories, according to the executive. Each employee was given a biscuit and a cup of tea, guided to a workstation and within half an hour started a 12-hour shift fitting glass screens into beveled frames. Within 96 hours, the plant was producing over 10,000 iPhones a day. “The speed and flexibility is breathtaking,” the executive said. “There’s no American plant that can match that.” ...
So, Americans just need to build factories with armed guards (labor camps), have the workers live in dormitories, starve the workers, deny them sleep, pay them .70 per hour, make them work 12 to 16 hours a day for 13 day stints before a day off, when they try to commit suicide erect bars over the windows and catch nets and if they organize, send them to reeducation camps which are labor prisons...then we can have our Apple jobs back.
Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:49 | Link to Comment koperniuk666
koperniuk666's picture

so why the fuk complain? take it or leave it.

 

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 20:18 | Link to Comment flattrader
flattrader's picture

I do leave it.  I don't buy Apple.  I don't pay a premium for iCrap.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 21:38 | Link to Comment Rynak
Rynak's picture

Apple aren't exactly known to produce and especially design "crap". One may hate them for their vendor lock-in mentality (i do), or for the culture they created (i do), or for their treatment of lowclass workers (i do), or for the price they charge (i do NOT)..... but i'd never call their products "crap".

And as for those saying "you can get a product with "chip X in it" for price Y".... uh, sorry to break it to you, but design, interface and QA matters.... quality especially in the IT-market to a large degree nowadays depends NOT on the WHAT, but the HOW.... and it is the later, in which apple has a long history of superiority.

I admire them for that..... but it at least to me is not enough to offset all the things i hate them for.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 08:21 | Link to Comment flattrader
flattrader's picture

>>>uh, sorry to break it to you, but design, interface and QA matters.... quality especially in the IT-market to a large degree nowadays depends NOT on the WHAT, but the HOW<<<

Not when it's a consumption drivien overpriced toy...that was my point.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:54 | Link to Comment LasVegasDave
LasVegasDave's picture

I guess labor isnt really worth $40/hour

Sorry for your wake up call America.

Disclosure: Short The Great Society, Long cold rice and ratmeat 

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 20:16 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

I hear ya. I slept through my Optimist Club meeting today too.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 21:41 | Link to Comment Rynak
Rynak's picture

Rot in hell, parasite whore.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 05:25 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

America needs a Communist Party to build a New Republic.......it might get one !

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 20:15 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

they are starving to death. and they will therefore demand to buried with their i phone/i pad/i touch/i see/ i you/i die/i bury device. and their i-device will still be providing personal data on us...even though we are dead. "it's an app thing." i understand if you don't...but you will. YOU WILLLLLLLLL!

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 22:07 | Link to Comment monoloco
monoloco's picture

Are they demanding wifi for the graveyard yet?

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 00:42 | Link to Comment Ropingdown
Ropingdown's picture

TruthInS:  Your footnote actually hits the nail on the head dragging in the anti-GM, and the WSJ actually featured this notion recently.  Cars are no longer cool, because  cars have to be economical because young people are poorer these days.  It's their gadgets, data and entertainment tools, that affect the aesthetics (and status) of their life.  The Chinese are finding this too, and they (see the lead blog above) love the iOS stuff.  The hardest thing is to sell it to the Chinese without causing a mob scene.  I've used apple stuff since 84 because my production is mainly documents with light bookkeeping and such.  We've had clone servers for ever, but that's just a different industry, application.  Linux and mostly an open stack.  I find the iOS and the macbooks just work, with good software, good screens, fine writing applications and PDF submission tools.   The cost of the things is nothing over a reasonable amort period.  It isn't about the computers anymore.  It's all about the visuals and flow because you can do major DB and statistics work on any box these days.  The "fan boy" stuff is kind of beside the point.  Manufacturing?  Easy to bring it home if the major clumps of semi-educated labor infesting most major US cities would read a bit at night, learn just a little simple math, and be willing to work flexibly, responsively, and with a clear head.  Yeah, so much for that idea for the moment.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 02:35 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Think from a European viewpoint, what would you rather have a fistfull of euros or an iPad?  At least you can eat the iPad (so I hear)

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 18:59 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

And how much of the Q4 sales surge was, sad to say it, the Steve Jobs death factor?

I suppose they could use the Bin Laden strategy and just kill him over and over whenever they need a bump...

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 18:59 | Link to Comment jarboejl
jarboejl's picture

I think any goods producing (especially tech) company has to become a "product-to-product company" at the rate the Chinese are pirating and replicating our technology.  JMO

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:01 | Link to Comment frostfan
frostfan's picture

I thought they were going to come out with some kind of revolutionary TV next.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:04 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

They did.

iPad = iTunes TV.

 

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:00 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Nooooot a proooooblem.  Here...

Cdad raises his 2012 price target on AAPL to $725 per share.  There...any questions about the sustainability of selling redundant and overpriced tech devices manufactured by Chinese slave labor are now settled.  No macro or micro economic threats need be contemplated now.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:06 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

We've always been at war with East Apple.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:11 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Exactly, brother Dog.  And they say...Wall Street bankers are the smartest folks in the entire country.  Somehow, just an average Joe like me can see right through this bullshit...as millions have.  So go ahead and ramp Apple to whatever price you like...and good luck selling it there.

Though, and of course, I love big brother.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:28 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture
Sheepdog said:  "We've always been at war with East Apple."

 

 

Essay on Great Gatsby, East Egg Vs. West Egg

 


Summary:   In The Great Gatsby, by F. Scott Fitzgerarld, the division between the "newly" rich and the "old" rich can be described as "East Eggers" vs "West Eggers."

 

East Egg and West Egg are "identical in contour and separated only by a courtesy bay ... They are not perfect ovals ... but their physical resemblance must be a source of perpetual wonder to the gulls that fly overhead. To the wingless a more interesting phenomenon their dissimilarity in every particular except shape and size."



East Egg is the fashionable group of social elite, also known as "old money" or people who have always had money. Tom and Daisy represent the 'old establishment', having lived in the wealthy upper class for most of their lives. Daisy is consumed by the materialistic values associated with her 'social class'. These people are shallow and lack values. They are careless and completely consumed with themselves, which is shown through Jordan Baker. She is a professional golfer who makes the comment that people should be careful of her when she drives. Also Daisy hits Myrtle, and does not even turn around to see if she is okay, all she is concerned with is the dealing with the consequences. "They were careless people, Tom and Daisy- they smashed up things and creatures then retreated back into their money or their vast carelessness or whatever it was that kept them together." The social elite of East Egg are inhuman; they are spoiled to such an extent that their morality has been twisted. Although these are clearly "bad" people they are envied and copied constantly by the West eggers. Throughout the novel it seems to be the West are trying to fit in the East, but East eggers, like Tom and Daisy, feel that they are too sophisticated to take part in that.

West Eggers are the newly rich; the people who have worked hard and earned their money in a short period of time. Their wealth is based on material possessions. Gatsby, like the West Eggers, lacks the traditions of the East Eggers. He is considered 'new money', in the sense that his wealth came to him more recently through his business dealings (which we are led to believe are corrupt). Although Gatsby is now a part of this class, his faith and belief in the success of his dreams has allowed him to preserve some morality. Despite the fact Gatsby made his fortune in a corrupt fashion one must recognize that he is someone to admire because of his hopes. Nick Carraway, the narrator of the novel, lives in West Egg and exhibits honesty in this place of superficiality. Clearly the West represents the more moral of the two. Although West Egg is the more moral, it is still a place of superficiality, excessive spending, and gaudy living.

Both of the eggs are people who love money, the difference is how they obtained that money and the way it has shaped their lives.

 

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:01 | Link to Comment Dasa Slooofoot
Dasa Slooofoot's picture

The amount of ways i can sign on to the internet may have reached its saturation point.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:51 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

me too. I'm writing passwords on the wall now

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 20:32 | Link to Comment nyse
nyse's picture

LastPass.com, homie.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:02 | Link to Comment ShankyS
ShankyS's picture

Siri - Is it sustainable? 

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:13 | Link to Comment Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

Can you make a shoe smell?

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:03 | Link to Comment 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture

Everyone owns one already. This may affect the future growth. Plus, people are flat out broke these days.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:06 | Link to Comment alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

As long as Microsoft continues to provide users a reason to switch to Mac...they will continue to switch to Mac.

A large part of Apples success can be directly attributed to Microsoft constantly pissing off it's customers.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 23:05 | Link to Comment Rynak
Rynak's picture

No. You not just have it wrong - you have it wrong in more ways than i can probably mention in this post. And you're ignoring recent history.

1. The kickstarter for apple, had absolutely nothing to do with microsoft. It wasn't home computers.... but instead, first the iPod, and then the iPhone. Apple entered an entirely new market, and became a status symbol in it. Suddenly, lots of people who never ever heard of the name apple before, knew it. So, it wasn't the desktop that brought apple into public view.... but rather that it entered the mobile gadgets market and became an instant hit. To put it simply, the majority of people only know that macs exist, because of the iPod and iPhone. THAT is why mac marketshare exploded AFTER the iPod and iPhone success... because previously, people didn't even know they existed!

2. In terms of egomaniac treatment of customers, as well as abusive lock-in strategies.... apple is no better than microsoft. In fact, apple has acted even MORE aggressive in that regard, than microsoft.... the only reason why it had less impact than MS, is simply because they have less marketshare.... NOT because of how they use it.

3. What MAY drive people to macs, AFTER they via iPods and iPhones know about their existence.... may however be something entirely different than corporate strategy..... DESIGN. Apple eats microsofts lunch in terms of application design, whenever they release anything. Same for google versus microsoft. Plus, in a perverted way, in terms of design apple's vendor lock-in mentality actually can be benefical to users: If the amount of tech to support and consider in a design, is low (i.e. controlled only by you), then you can design interfaces, as well as QA, much more efficiently (with this, i do NOT mean to say that i like apples vendor lock-in mentality.... it actually is the primary reason why i reject apple.... i do however acknowledge, that a small controlled market of software and hardware, surely makes interface design and behaviour MUCH easier and MUCH less error-prone... if there aren't many combinations to consider, it becomes much more easy to create something that "just works").

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 05:19 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

The kickstarter for apple, had absolutely nothing to do with microsoft. It wasn't home computers.... but instead, first the iPod, and then the iPhone. Apple entered an entirely new market, and became a status symbol in it.

 

Wow ! I remember an Apple OEM Manufacturer that had a name in tape recorders and made a small portable one with headphones. The Sony Walkman became a real hit, but funnily Sony never applied it to a flash drive to update the product and a delivery portal despite owning Movie and Record labels......or maybe because they did !

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:07 | Link to Comment chrispycrunch
chrispycrunch's picture

When you take a look at the latest specifications for Android, along with ice cream sandwich, it is conceivable that this is a 1- or a 2-quarter phenomenon. Greece/Europe is on the verge of finally colapsing. This will also hurt China where Apple is ramping up.

Android: "Samsung Galaxy S III rumoured to launch in April, have a quad-core processor, 12-megapixel camera, HD display"

 

Suddenly, paying $900 might seem just a bit expensive (it's $650-700 in the U.S.).

Next thing you know, Nokia's ugly WP7 model might look attractive. Okay, maybe not, but eventually these smart phones will get price-sensitive.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 21:10 | Link to Comment blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

You're not going to see any real price discovery on phones until customers are forced to shell out the cash.  The cellphone market must be one of the greatest plays in the world--you sell a $500 toy to someone who doesn't have $500 but agrees to pay a cellphone bill for the next 2 years, and the phone company gives you your cash.

It's almost as delicious as sub-prime balloon mortgages.  At least they never intended to repo the phones.  They'll be worthless in 6 months, after all.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 22:11 | Link to Comment Rynak
Rynak's picture

You nailed it.

(written by some guy, who has no cellphone contract, and owns two super-lowtech motofones.... but hey, i can even in bright daylight from 2 metres distance read it's clock.... i can make calls..... one can supposedly drive with a car over it, without damaging it, and the battery lifetime is 2-4weeks depending on the age of the bat.... it's a plain stupid phone damnit)

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 08:05 | Link to Comment flattrader
flattrader's picture

Agreed.  I have a semi-smart phone that even surfs the web (slowly).  It's indestructable, long bat life and when I'm in a group of smart phone usesers, it's the one they borrow when their phones have run out of juice.  A group trip is problematic because everybody is trying to use the car phone charger outlet.  Fortunately, when we take my vehicle it's not a problem as it has four of them.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:10 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

These "recessions" aren't for everybody; the top 20% are doing just fine and they're the ones buying. They're the middle class.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:43 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I agree.

The top 20% or 15% are now representative of what used to be the top 50% (back in the 1960s) in terms of purchasing power,

In other words, the middle class in Amerikranski has shrunk by at least half in the last 50 years.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 20:19 | Link to Comment Whiner
Whiner's picture

Right on Rex. It's like dem' Nike sneakers; it's called " branding". My kids won't settle for a Droid.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:11 | Link to Comment Irish66
Irish66's picture

There is something rather disturbing in these numbers. I just can't put my finger on it.  Also after hours trading

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:11 | Link to Comment user2011
user2011's picture

Well, there are too many fan boys out there, don't bet against aapl.    It will take a year or two bad earnings before people sell their shares.   

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:12 | Link to Comment navy62802
navy62802's picture

one wonders just how sustainable this in itself is

-------------

Eh. Why worry with such petty things as sustainability? Won't Apple's revenue just keep on growing forever and ever?

/endsarcasm

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:15 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Limits are for Malthusians and pussies.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:13 | Link to Comment I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

Fonz, lay down the motorcycle, it's dangerous.  China, India, iPhone5, iPad3, etc. etc.  This will not last forever but they got a couple years left minimum.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:15 | Link to Comment Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

Who is still buying ipods?  Why would you need one if it's already built into your iphone?  

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:16 | Link to Comment DoctoRx
DoctoRx's picture

Good to see there are still so many AAPL bears growling around.  Since summer 2009 I've been posting bullishly on AAPL, more than once in direct response to Reggie.  

IMHO a conservative PT is $600 in 1 year.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:53 | Link to Comment Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

So many Apple bears?  You do realize every mutual fund and pension fund in America owns Apple shares right?  Sounds like everyone is bearish :eyeroll:

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 21:19 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Correct...which makes it the FIRST place folks will go to get liquid.

I would deride folks chasing the stock up in the AH...but those ain't folks.  The trade looks over to me...simply looking at volume just prior to close, and the print just after the shares began trading post halt.

 

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 00:02 | Link to Comment I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

many hedge funds have dumped apple, for every buyer there is a seller, look at these idiots that sold a year ago

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11014455/1/dozens-of-hedge-funds-sell-app...

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 20:58 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

i'm glad we changed our mind. it's always painful to buy a stock in the high 300 dollar per share range...unless of course it goes to 400. Of course it makes you feel even worse that "phuck face over there got it for 50."

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:20 | Link to Comment Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

Reggie Middleton sure got this 1 wrong.

Apple is on a roll....down that mountain of cash they have parked

i'm probly the only 1 here who does't own anything Apple, and everyone i know simply loves their ishit.

 Apple could  buy Greece outright.

 

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:23 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

IBM -> Microsoft -> Apple -> ?

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 20:26 | Link to Comment Executioner
Executioner's picture

this "1" ?
Don't even know why he writes around here. Surely he is paying to publish his self-appraising stuff.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 21:51 | Link to Comment Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

I mean no disrespect to Reg, hes a numbers cruncher, and the numbers do say they've peaked/saturated in certain segments....then out rolls the next gadget.

 When it comes to Apple, loyalty trumps everything else.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:24 | Link to Comment ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Even my MDs sport the shiny 4S at work when theyre not on their company-paid-for BBs. If high finance accepts apple, this thing is going north for quite a bit longer.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:33 | Link to Comment ifishivote
ifishivote's picture

I would like to know how many people that own Ipads have $5000 in savings. We live in a country where people throw things away even thou they work fine. I would love to put stainless steel appliances in my kitchen but I refuse because the white ones I have still work. I would like to retire someday.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:41 | Link to Comment navy62802
navy62802's picture

Savings? What is that?? Hahahaha. We don't need no stinking savings, we got the gubbamint to pay for our shit.

PS - I still drive my fucking '04 Grand Cherokee with 100k miles. Isn't that some shit. The honest people pass on buying things they don't need while the leeches suck up our tax money. There's no way this is sustainable.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 20:07 | Link to Comment Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

92 Honda, 150k miles.  More than $5000 savings.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 20:15 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Funny you should mention $5,000 savings...

I bought the first Apple iPhone in 2006 and was paying about $100 a month for a piece of shit... I dumped it in a glass of ice water a year later as soon as the AT&T contract expired and have never looked back... Going on 5 years now (cellphone free) & loving it...

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 20:43 | Link to Comment CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

So you like having no friends?

That's cool.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 21:52 | Link to Comment dolph9
dolph9's picture

Only in the deluded minds of the social networking and tech-obsessed are hundreds of acquaintances that you barely spend any time with, and who would scatter like cockroaches at the first sign that you were in any real trouble, "friends."

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 01:59 | Link to Comment CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Right. Because I own a simple cell phone 100% of my relationships are silicon based and I haven't seen a real person in three years. You are right, when shit hits the fan all my true FB friends will block my profile!

Fick man lighten up and live a little. It's a cell phone. How do you get a ride home from the bar with a honey. Do you write down this girls number on a napkin with your quill pen? You're not a badass survivalist because you don't own a cell. Lighten up and live a little.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 22:46 | Link to Comment Osmium
Osmium's picture

1997 Saturn  245k miles.  Just rebuilt the engine last summer.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 23:50 | Link to Comment Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

You found parts? O.o

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:44 | Link to Comment koperniuk666
koperniuk666's picture

i speak as a man who bought a macbook G4 ( after an IBM think pad - pure, complete, shit) in 2004 -  i was very happy. WoW!

no crashes - easy to use - but a little expensive.

possibly one of the best investments i have ever made.

this last summer (2011)i bought a macbook pro. 

piece of shit (relatively)

these people (apple) have really lost their way. I have had my g4 repaired and im heading back..

anyone wanna buy a pro? - aug 2011 mod. free circ (EU) good cond?

let me know.

as ever there is a cycle in business - work at it: get it: take the piss out of your customers: sell out.

go fk yourself apple.

next?

 

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:50 | Link to Comment bankofvol
bankofvol's picture

rumor mill: $AAPL taking over Greece and turning its islands to I-lands

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 19:59 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

:) +100

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 20:00 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

6.to 12 months from now i'll start to short apple.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 20:32 | Link to Comment Executioner
Executioner's picture

hi Sudden Debt,
How things are faring? Is Belgium still without any gvt?

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 21:00 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

6-8 weeks from now i will eat apple. from the grocery store of course...

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 20:01 | Link to Comment Father Lucifer
Father Lucifer's picture

The only iThing I want is an iCarly.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 20:02 | Link to Comment bankofvol
bankofvol's picture

rumor mill: TIM COOK $AAPL CEO bought 10Million $RIMM put 5 expiring this Friday for his charity trust

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 20:05 | Link to Comment roy10
roy10's picture

The bearishness on Apple here is ridiculous. Q4 was astonishing. 4GS is a huge success and it’s not just Jobs. Stock is cheaply valued and it’s pretty much the best brand in the known universe.

China growth will be huge in Q1. These guys admire anything Western.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 20:12 | Link to Comment bankofvol
bankofvol's picture

$APPL On Conf call T.Cook says not sure when $RIMM file chapter11. Need to be before Iphone 5 launch, BBerry taking useless space on shelves that he needs

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 20:12 | Link to Comment bankofvol
bankofvol's picture

Tomorrow, Short AAPL and Long RIMM ALL IN

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 20:21 | Link to Comment jimijon
jimijon's picture

Good for us iDevelopers. Corporate demand for apps is exploding!

long gold, silver and apple bitchez!

 

 

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 20:23 | Link to Comment YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Finally Tyler starts to ask smart questions.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 22:31 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

They'd be "smart" questions if they had any direction.. instead they're firing blanks into outer space with nothing coming back (this journalist is running on empty)

i can't believe this Space Cadet pile of crap is from TD's pen

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 20:30 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Something doesn't seem right here. Not quite Enron bad, but something seems skewed.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 20:35 | Link to Comment nyse
nyse's picture

Hmmm. Interesting...

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 20:54 | Link to Comment A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

I think those are fair and honest observations myself. I mulled over this very line of reasoning a few weeks ago before unloading my apple shares for something with a little more upside potential. Today that move looks stupid........today. Trust the gut..........unless it wants a second corned beef sandwich.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 20:54 | Link to Comment non_anon
non_anon's picture

foxconn, bitchez!

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 22:38 | Link to Comment lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

foxconn, bitchez!   yes, FOXCONN.   the reason i refuse to buy APPLE anything.   APPLE doesn't need my little bit of money, they have plenty.  

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 20:58 | Link to Comment Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

OT but what is the drinking game for the state of the disunion speech tonight? I'm guessing "middle class" might be a catchword.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 22:12 | Link to Comment non_anon
non_anon's picture

quarters?

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 21:12 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

iQuits

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 21:19 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Apple has become an status icon. So those their 20's and 30's will pay almost anything to have one

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 21:32 | Link to Comment game theory
game theory's picture

I don't touch anything Apple. You will die early.  You need to interact with their employees to understand how that organism operates and what their game plan is. I did. I know. Invest? Sure...you'll make a few bucks. Use their stuff? No way.  Don't f*&% with their legal staff. Those muther-&^ers will find your dead grandparents, raise them from the dead, and sue the re-animated skin off of them. It's all fun now. But just wait. 

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 22:30 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Have you met a Microshite staffer?

They were going to 'compete' (novel idea for the worlds greatest global monopolist) with Apple and set-up their own MS retail shops

that Gates & Bulmer brainwave lasted as long as it took for the penny to drop they'd have cues stretching around the block looking for patches to every pile of MS junk they peddled

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 22:21 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

"Without trying to take away from Apple's blow out earnings.."

Sure about that?

"While unit sales in Q4 were fine.. one wonders just how sustainable this in itself is."

Oh dear didn't take long to contradict yourself did it?

"..if one normalizes for product cadence (yes, we hate that word too)."

You "hate" the word. You used it. There you go again, setting yourself up then shooting yourself in the foot (in public ...twice!!)

".. what happens with baseline revenue growth ex-new product innovation?"

Uh dunno! You asked the question, got an answer? What is this 'Space Cadets' school for journalism?

"Or how about self-cannibalization?"

Yes how about it! Has Mr Vacuous Journalist got any more stupid un-answered questions to dribble down his chin?

"Not like we are saying anything new here.."

For fucks sake ...try to pull your head out of your arse and provide substance

"Will this innovation ability stay with the new management?"

Will pigs fly one day in American Airlines colours? I dunno mate, but this looks like a competition you're running on who can ask the most unanswered questions in one paragraph.. you're a machine gun of blanks

"And how much of the Q4 sales surge was, sad to say it, the Steve Jobs death factor? "

There's so many vacuous questipns to answer already I don't think i can manage another one.. give readers a break from running-on-empty-journalism wud ya?

"Finally, the fact that in Q4 AsiaPac revenues were less than a year prior, does this mean that even with the 4S release, Apple has now lost the Asian market to cheaper, pirated, or Google-based competition?"

I wouldn't want to "take anything away" from your article but so many questions, so many zeros (answers). Any chance you could go do some fuking research and answer your own questions before you write another vacuous article?

"Finally.."

That's 2 finally's 

"..how much of the explosion in the December 31 quarter sales is simply a "cash for clunker"-like forward shifted of purchases that would have otherwise happened in the first quarter of 2012?"

How much better the world of journalism without a journo too dumb to answer any of his own stupid questions?

This 'article' was like watching a dog chase its own tail while farting ..an early candidate for 'Most Inane Artilce by Dumbest Journalist of 2012' ...are you from CNBC by any chance???

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 00:22 | Link to Comment Escapeclaws
Escapeclaws's picture

Some of the best criticism of an article I've read in a long time.  If people in general could think as well as you do this country might have a chance. Thanks for the reassurance that truth still exists! Muchas gracias.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 00:26 | Link to Comment I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

no shit, i pointed out to reggie that his iphone projection numbers were all wrong a long time ago and he ignored me but finally was smart enough to go silent on apple.

 

It's like watching a horse with a broken leg still trying to run the race.  Sad really.

Tue, 01/24/2012 - 23:42 | Link to Comment williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

I was in the HK Apple Store on Chinese New Year Day...a day almost everything is empty. The bustling crowd reminded me of smiling little human electrons attracted to various iPhones, iPads and Macs. This is a clue about Appl's future. 

OT: Something funny happened as well, one of the business team leaders was listening to me talk to a few of the clerks about all the things I do with computers and etc. Somehow I mentioned I blog on Zero Hedge.

"You blog on Zero Hedge? OMG that is so cooooool, let us see, let us see." I had a whole circle of APPL geeks and gals in red T-shirts looking over my shoulder as I walked through the whole thing. Yes, there are Chinese University students who know very well what Zero Hedge is. I thought this might have been a put on, but the guy asked me who Tyler is  ;-) 

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 01:03 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 All them/ thar  " i- batteries " gotta be worth some " Chevy Volts" ...

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 02:16 | Link to Comment terryfuckwit
terryfuckwit's picture

Android is inherently an open door open  technology based on linux kernal... apple actively spend more money on developers closing doors and limiting shared tech.. All the techies know Android wipes iphones of the planet... but it all goes to show what marketing and being a wall street darling can do when it comes to promoting mass stupidity amongst the population.. Reggie is right the facts will eventually overcome the marketing kidology...RIP Steve Jobs and no disrespect but history will show he was unfit  to tie the the shoe laces of Richar Stallman founder of the open source movement....

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 05:14 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Richard Stallman did not develop the personal computer but a software system. Apple sells a hardware which works well with its OS capitalising on Microsoft error code. I use all three systems and value the diversity, but loathe MIcrosoft for its policy of hiding bugs and failure to supply backup discs. Apple iPads are simply an attempt to sell cheaper Macbooks but they are a trendy gimmick. Tablets are either big screen telephones or flatpack PCs depending on which side of the fence you are. I would never spend much money on a tablet so its Playbook all the way......and I need desktops to crunch numbers so those you build yourself. In the middle is the laptop from c. 4 manufacturers who apply the cosmetics for Western Marketing Firms. There is a replacement cycle and I don't think Apple will do as well in 2012 - it is a much more costly item in Europe than in the US - and has crappy accessories like PSUs which it fails to provide for older models leaving Chinese incendiaries as the only option for those hoping to keep older model Macbooks running.

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