This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Someone Isn't Buying It
While futures are slowly getting reacquainted with gravity, following both the realization that the bailout was a failure, and seeing past the feeble attempt of the ECB to ramp up Spanish and Portuguese bonds (with Dupoint slashing 2012 outlook not helping) there is one indicator that has outright rejected this day's daily Hopium, and has tumbled to levels last seen at the beginning of the month, when the global Fed FX swap line rate cut was announced in a last ditch attempt to prevent Lehman 2.0. It is the all too critical primary FX liquidity mismatch indicator - the 3 month EUR-USD basis swap, which has fallen 9 bps to 126 bps, the biggest intraday drop since November 29, and the lowest since December 2, with the 1 month basis swap following. In other words, politicians can pretend and talk up the prospects of future bond issuance and crisis resolution, but the market has already spoken and once again demands the ECB (or the Fed) or else the prospect of another imminent liquidity lock up is fast approaching just like at the end of November, and with it rumors that a certain French and/or German bank will fail.
Chart: BBG
»
- 9903 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Crippling oppression and takeover by a supra-national government is not bullish? #ref
bullish is only one letter away from bullshit.
...and bullshit is only a few letters away from Brussels
ok i made that up, but so is that clown show as it goes along
pure farce for an entire year ...these Eurotossers are pitiful
Many banks, both western and eastern, have already failed, the sheeple simply have not been informed. Got physical?
The sheeple have just learned that the Chinese bailout will be increased with aid from Iran. They expect a delivery of cash to the central bank delivered by a stealth drone. Helicopter Ben is green with envy.
Help for the European banks . . . but no debt extinguishing plan.
Debt saturation still the ultimate problem. Solvency is the real problem.
"While futures are slowly getting reacquainted with gravity"
That's good. I like that.
Hey, has anyone ever done some type of analysis on writing style/writing content and come up with guesses on authors for "Tyler"?
Even a simple break down like: Tyler 1 - Least bearish, obvious commodities trader. Tyler 2 - Forte: macro-economics, guesses right wrt Europe banking & wrong wrt Japan. etc.
Someone's gotta form a scoresheet... or bubble gum cards.
Wiki guesses the # of potential authors at ZH betwen 4 and 40.
We need the same score cards on some of the idiots that blog here....
Landesbank Berlin and Credite Agricole: we are on your deathwatch.
I remember the days when FX swap lines had half-lives of many weeks, now... ah...
Look into my eyes
You will believe the Eurozone is Strong!
...........and wake up!
Someone is underestimating the powers-that-be.
They can keep the balls in the air for a long long time.
It might be years before the next collapse.
My bet? A collapse won't happen.
They'll take us to war instead.
But what do I know?
http://fucklloydblankfein.blogspot.com
Don't know why you are getting junked. History has shown what you say to be true, over and over. But I digress, it is easy to junk without adding any intelligent or factual commentary.
Right now TPTB are negociating amongst themselves and negociations will continue for as long as it takes, period. Remember, war takes many forms, and war is simply negociation by other means.
Good luck all.
the junks are probably related to pimping his blog all the time.
"Someone is underestimating the powers-that-be. They can keep the balls in the air for a long long time."
You may be right Julia. What I'm looking for is an informed opinion on that likelihood. And how Europe is different than the US. Your statement is obviously true for the US, where the FED has an infinite balance sheet and TREASURY an infinite ability to print. (And the obvious propensity to both USE and EXPLOIT those tools.
How is Europe different? Can someone explain? Because if the differnces are small, you may be right.
I think you said "ball" when you meant "chainsaw".
I'm buying it, at least for today. Half hour later - getting hurt now.
No crash before Christmas (bonuses). Apres moui, le deluge.
Soro's is buying.
i thought he only de-re-hypothecates or something another
CNBC...only a day late with this info.
This story gets more interesting when you consider that small potato individual clients who attempted to withdraw funds via wire transfer only days before the BK had their wire transfers reversed. See Bruce Kasings latest contribution.
You had to be a billionaire to get all of your money out of MFG
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/daniel-dicker/the-koch-brothers-and-mf-_b_...
Maybe the had two neurons to put together and can read the writing on the wall. ;)
Maybe the massive withdrawals by Koch are what triggered MF Global's collapse. That makes a lot more sense to me than assuming Koch was tipped off.
Let's stop all the BS. If countries don't want to give up their fiscal sovereignty, have NATO do some more humanitarian interventions with the intelligence agencies fomenting convenient riots so that more GS alumni can become country decision makers. Doing God's work is so, so satsisfying (especially for the NWO).
Unknown variables will come out of nowhere and will crush the ambitions of the TPTB.
i think MF Global is the straw/shit that breaks the camals back
..that and the Bundesbank refusing to print
the Western worlds politcal and banking institutions are about to crumble to dust (which is ironically precisely what they're worth)
'Mark to market' is arriving ...capitalisms timless assassin, the Grim Reaper, always nails his prey to the floor in the end
I love ZH and Tyler for trying to sort this shit out, but the cental planners of the world have broken these markets. You have semi leaders and chemical leaders telling you that the economy is slowing, and all the world cares about is lier European leaders...please... market could go up 1000 points and I wouldn't be surprised...lol
I would be
Mark it. This is the day the rumor machine went too far. This should be an absolutely dismal market session, world wide, so as to explain to the politicians, the rumor mongers, and the perfect union Euro dreamers that all credibility is gone.
You should see heavy selling on volume straight out of the gate when the US opening bell rings. And I would be very wary of ANY commodity position this morning. The overnight take down of the US dollar is very ill advised.
Oh what fun, to live in the American Banana Republic Tree.
HAH! NO JEW WILL GO HOME FOR CHANUCKA WITHOUT HIS BONUS, SANTA IS IN THE MAKING, ECB DIDN'T DO IT SO THE FED'STERS WILL!! JANUARY IS THE BEGINNING OF "VERY UGLY"!!
TJ: The proper euphamism on this blog is "bankers" :)
Here you are seeing exactly what I told you to expect. In this case, the selling is of the magic variety, causing prices to rise. Individual equities now being stuffed into ETFs. Prepare for the reversal.
"but the market has already spoken and once again demands the ECB (or the Fed) or else the prospect of another imminent liquidity lock up is fast approaching just like at the end of November, and with it rumors that a certain French and/or German bank will fail."
So here we are, EU refused to blink on ECB QE² despite the barrage of pressure from US/UK so now what will it be? Financial Chaos? or BOE/FED going QE Nuclear²?
Dont hold your breath for a systemic collapse... who has more to lose blink first...
vvvvv
To paraphrase Janis Joplin: “Insolvency is just another word for nothin’ left to lose.”
Gaoptimize - nice!
But I prefer Grace Slick's: "When logic and proportion have fallen sloppy dead."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HmJQyS8QVw
This song always makes the hair on my neck stand up. Very creepy, especially given the markets these days.
Red Queen = Merkel
Hookah smoking caterpillar = Corzine (or us)
Just listened to White Rabbit again - man that is creepy!!
"Feed the FED!
Feed the FED!
Feed the FED!!!!!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HmJQyS8QVw
How about Amy Winehouse singing about EU and liquidity/solvency problems-
"Angela tried to get them to rehab and the EU/banks said "No,no,no""
Futures green...
Must...keep...Dow...over...12k. Must...protect...bonus...pool. Must...get...house...in...Hamptons.
The UK didn't join in. So may be we are on the way out of the EU. Given 50% of the banking in the EU is through London may be we know something they don't, like signing treaties does not solve solvency crisis.
So the EURO crisis road show can roll on, gives more time to print money and cut govenment spending. By the time the spot light is on us we will have cut and printed our way out of danger.
In the mean time, lets get cheaper food (end of French backed CAP), get our finishing industry back, stop wasting our taxes on proping up the EU and kill off working regulations so we can get our manufacturing a chance to give the German manufacturers a run for their money.
I think the Euro will implode - in slow motion
i take it you're british! and... where do most of these globalists reside? case closed!!!
I suppose the "UK" bit of zippy_uk provides a hint on that one.
I am not sure getting our of a superanational EU makes a good case about globalists being British. You may be surprised how many are in the EU though..
It certainly would be a curious experiment to see how the British would enjoy a blockade around their tiny island this winter. Do any of these tiny western states really think about the collapse of western society (and the U.S. in particular) from the population and available resource perspective?
If I could predict any "unforseen" and really "unpredictable" surprise it would be the unholy alliance of China and the U.S. in a deal to use both countries manpower (mostly China) and existing infrastructure (U.S.) to bring the world under the thumb of the one world government once and for all.
This seems to me like the ultimate contrarian trade.
it looks more likely China is teaming up with Russia ...that's a big gob full even for the US Govt (and Isreal) to swallow in the middle-east
Empires are taken apart not by one large competitor but from many smaller ones nipping away at their ankles, toes and arses (just ask the British)
The US Govts bitten off globally far more than it can chew ...cue Emperical indigestion then staggered collapse
Perhaps. But in my world I know many venture capital guys that are falling over themselves to get behind IPOs in China. They are spending a lot of time in China and they are all very well connected. After the revolutionary war it took a two-party system in order for the bankers to take control of America and turn it into a centrally planned kleptocracy/socialist state. Perhaps the Communist/democracy paradigm is the bankers plan for the centrally planned world kleptocracy/socialist state. Just seems to make sense, but you present the obvious possible outcome of an overreaching one world government (E.U., U.N., I.M.F.) Sad thing is most American sheeple don't realize that they have been a part of and sacraficed for these banker pigs for over a hundred years.
Blowin' my mind here this Friday morning.
Brown's Bottom has got you feelin' the blues, eh?
"I think the Euro will continue to implode - in slow motion"
[fixed, no charge]
THanks - good correction...
It's like a 21 year old scotch, or the demise of the Soviet Union, it needs to be savoured:)
That is the plan and the Bankers will be one step or trade ahead at every step down..this is planned...so when they know Bank X is going they buy the CDS..or short it...we willl never hear about it until the announce that Bank X was nationalized
I think you're wrong about that Henny. Plenty of noise here about Dexia before it was nationalized.
The Euro is already imploding in slow motion. I expect things to speed up soon, and those expecting the implosion to continue in slow motion will be caught flat-footed.
And I grew up in the 70s, when the careers advisor used to come to school, and he used to get the kids together and say, "Look, I advise you to get a career, what can I say? That's it." And he took me aside, he said, "Whatcha you want to do, kid? Whatcha you want to do? Tell me, tell me your dreams!" "I want to be a space astronaut! Go to outer space, discover things that have never been discovered." He said, "Look, you're British, so scale it down a bit, all right?" "All right, I want to work in a shoe shop then! Discover shoes that no one's ever discovered right in the back of the shop, on the left." And he said, "Look, you're British, so scale it down a bit, all right?" "All right, I want to work in a sewer then! Discover sewage that no one's ever discovered, and pile it on my head, then come to the surface and sell myself to an art gallery."
....and then he said, OK Son, best career advice I can give you is move to France.
Fuck Europe. I will pish myself laughing when they go down.
The best asset the British have is the English Channel.
Dream on.
Zippy, with inflation at 5%, youth unemployment over 20% and anaemic growth, it's not going too well in Britain. Cutting and printing is not helping anything other than inflation so far. I'm not sure that annoying the bulk of your most important trade partners in one foul swoop is necessarily going to help.
Your policies would work if the UK wasn't so intertwined with the world economy through FDI, the financial services industry and oil and gas prices. Not to mention what euro implosion would do for Britain given British banks' massive exposure to Irish debt. My guess is that the UK government is already giving as much to Ireland in aid as it is giving to the EU in "Union taxes".
It might have been good (domestic) politics from Cameron, but I can't see it helping the UK economically in the longer-term.
Lupe Fiasco's music and it's black-panther-scion theology and general anti-establishment groove makes quite a moody background to much of the doom-mungering and gloom-buggering screeching and screeding that we see here.
Love it.
Keep... it... up.
Greatest headline of all time just came across RTRS: Merkel welcomes Draghi support for EFSF with ECB's...... wait for it.... it's coming...... get here already.......... and the answer is: "expertise". :)
Somehow, I though Angie was looking for the dosh:))))))
The bazooka turned out to be a pea shooter.
The Eurocrats have decided that more meetings will do the trick, lol.
So far the "investors" in stock markets have proved to be quite willing to be long on - - - meetings. If I were a Eurocrat I too would stick with what works.
dupe post
Still, it's Friday. Expect the last 30 minutes of trading today to be the usual HFT melt-up short-covering BS we have come to know and love.
http://vegasxau.blogspot.com
must watch, lindsey williams:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&list=PL2FA04859C586EC9F&v=ssmMRqYTNt8
And, has the euro already collapsed? Should have been by now.
it continues to be propped up, for now.
Does agreeing to a deal that is more or less the same deal they all previously agreed to after Maastricht---and which most subsequently violated---suddenly make bank assets worth more? Does it erase an average Eurobank leverage of about 38x on balance sheet, and who knows how much off balance sheet? Does it make TBTF asset levels relative to GDP of each bank's home country less ominous? Does it mean, just because some leaders pretended to reach some amorphous agreement, that all the populations of Euroland will fall into line and accept the now (supposedly) mandated austerity and fiscal responsibility?
I'm guessing the answer to all of the above is "No".
That being said, hope springs eternal. Market players, those few who are left, are not playing with their own money, don't suffer inordinately if everybody suffers, but do suffer if the market runs away from them and they are underweight. For these timid souls, it is not about preservation of capital, but preservation of job. Risk-reward is heavily skewed torwards being as long as everybody else.
Nothing short of a gushing wound is going to make them sell. Dexia could have been that gushing wound. Credit Agricole might now step up to the plate. Commerzbank is on deck. Deutsche Bank is in the hole.
What ever happened to "sell the news"?