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S&P Downgrades Italy; Euro, Futures Tumble

Tyler Durden's picture





 

As usual, a corrupt and pathetic Moody's continues to boldly not go where everyone else has gone before. Luckily, S&P, which had the balls to cut the US, has just done so to Europe's next domino, by downgrading Italy from A+ to A, outlook negative. Then again, this was pretty much telegraphed 100% earlier today as noted in "Italy Expected To Cut Growth Forecasts Further." Anyway, those incompetents from Moody's are next.

Full report:

Italy Unsolicited Ratings Lowered To 'A/A-1' On Weaker Growth Prospects, Uncertain Policy Environment; Outlook Negative

Overview

  • Italy's net general government debt is the highest among 'A' rated sovereigns. We have revised our projections of Italy's net general government debt and now expect it to peak later and at a higher level than we previously anticipated.
  • In our view, Italy's economic growth prospects are weakening and we expect that Italy's fragile governing coalition and policy differences within parliament will continue to limit the government's ability to respond decisively to domestic and external macroeconomic challenges.
  • In our view, weaker economic growth performance will likely limit the effectiveness of Italy's revenue-led fiscal consolidation program.
  • We have revised our base-case medium-term projections of real GDP growth to an annual average of 0.7% between 2011 to 2014, compared with our previous projection of 1.3% (see "Credit FAQ: Why We Revised The Outlook On Italy To Negative," published May 23, 2011). As part of our ratings analysis, we have also prepared upside and downside macroeconomic scenarios that could drive our future rating actions on Italy.
  • We are lowering our long- and short-term unsolicited sovereign credit ratings on Italy to 'A/A-1' from 'A+/A-1+'.
  • The negative outlook reflects our view of additional downside risks to public finances related to the trajectory of Italy's real and nominal GDP growth, and implementation risks of the government's fiscal consolidation program.

Rating Action

On Sept. 19, 2011, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its unsolicited long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings on the Republic of Italy to 'A/A-1' from 'A+/A-1+'. The outlook is negative. The transfer and convertibility assessment remains 'AAA', as it does for all members of the eurozone.

Rationale

The downgrade reflects our view of Italy's weakening economic growth prospects and our view that Italy's fragile governing coalition and policy differences within parliament will likely continue to limit the government's ability to respond decisively to the challenging domestic and external macroeconomic environment.

Under our recently updated sovereign ratings criteria, the "political" and "debt" scores were the primary contributors to the downgrade. The scores relating to the other elements of our methodology--economic structure, external, and monetary--did not contribute to the downgrade.

More subdued external demand, government austerity measures, and upward pressure on funding costs in both the public and private sectors will, in our opinion, likely result in weaker growth for the Italian economy compared with our May 2011 base-case expectations, when we revised the outlook to negative.

We believe the reduced pace of Italy's economic activity to date will make the government's revised fiscal targets difficult to achieve. Furthermore, what we view as the Italian government's tentative policy response to recent market pressures suggests continuing future political uncertainty about the means of addressing Italy's economic challenges.

In our opinion, the measures included in and the implementation timeline of Italy's National Reform Plan will likely do little to boost Italy's economic performance, particularly against the backdrop of tightening financial conditions and the government's fiscal austerity program (see "Italy Delivers", published by the Italian Ministry of the Economy and Finance at http://www.mef.gov.it/documenti/open.asp?idd=27880).

Our reduced expectations concerning Italy's growth prospects also reflect key structural impediments that we have written about before:

    Low labor participation rates and tightly regulated labor and services markets;
    What we consider to be an inefficient public sector; and
    Relatively modest foreign investment inflows.

In our view, the authorities remain reluctant to tackle these issues (see our full analysis on Italy, published Dec. 1, 2010, on RatingsDirect on the Global Credit Portal). For example, we note that in the July 2011 political discussions about the Decree Law No. 98/2011 (converted into Law No. 111/2011), several proposed supply-side measures, including the liberalization of professional services, were shelved or delayed because of opposition within the governing coalition and in parliament.

The government projects that its fiscal consolidation program will result in a cumulative fiscal consolidation of about €60 billion, overall, with the largest savings projected in 2012 and 2013 (see "Italy Delivers", http://www.mef.gov.it/documenti/open.asp?idd=27880).

However, we think that the government's projection of a €60 billion savings may not come to fruition for three primary reasons:

First, as described below, we view Italy's economic growth prospects as weakening;

Second, nearly two-thirds of the projected budgetary savings in the crucial 2011-2014 period rely on revenue increases in a country already carrying a high tax burden; and

Third, market interest rates are anticipated to rise.

We have adopted a revised base-case macroeconomic scenario, which we view as consistent with the downgrade and negative outlook. Compared with the May 2011 base case, the revised base-case scenario assumes that annual real GDP growth will be 0.6 percentage points lower over the 2011-2014 forecast horizon because of more sluggish growth in exports, investment, and public- and private-sector consumption. Since May 2011, financial conditions in Italy have tightened and the pace of economic recovery of its principal global and eurozone trading partners has slowed. We also note that our revised base case is broadly similar to the downside (downgrade) scenario we published in May 2011.

We have also adopted a revised downside scenario, consistent with another possible downgrade. The revised downside assumes a mild recession takes hold next year, with real GDP declining by 0.6%, followed by a modest recovery in 2013-2014. The economic main drivers in our revised downside scenario are tighter financial conditions, with higher interest rates on government bonds, as well as weaker trajectories for private-sector consumption and exports.

We have also adopted a revised upside scenario, which, if it occurred, would be consistent with our view of a revision of the outlook to stable. Our revised upside scenario assumes that financial conditions will gradually improve, along with the trajectories for GDP growth, exports, and investment. For details of the revised base case and alternate scenarios, see our analysis on Italy, published Sept. 19, 2011.

Under all three scenarios, we expect that Italy's net general government debt burden will remain the key rating constraint for the foreseeable future. We project that such net debt will be 117% of GDP at year-end 2011, up from 100% of GDP in 2007.

Under our revised base case, the net debt burden would fall only slightly to 115% of GDP by 2014, a similar rate to the May 2011 downside scenario.

Our macroeconomic analysis also illustrates Italy's main credit weakness: Even under pressure, Italian political institutions, incumbent monopolies, public-sector workers, and public- and private-sector unions impede the government's ability to respond decisively to challenging economic conditions. For example, union opposition to the privatization of Alitalia in 2008 ended prospects for a takeover by Air France. Moreover, resistance in parliament in July 2011 led the government to drop proposals to liberalize professional services from its legislative agenda. Nontariff barriers to foreign direct investment (FDI) are, in our view, the key reason behind Italy's relatively low inbound FDI stock. At about 16% of GDP, it is less than one-half that of either France or Spain (36% and 43% of GDP, respectively) and lower than that of Germany (27%), despite Italy's potential efficiency gains from economic scale within Europe's common market.

With elections due in 2013, and the government's parliamentary position tenuous, it is unclear what can be done to break the deadlock between these political institutions and the government. As a result, we believe that Italy remains vulnerable to heightened fiscal, economic, and financial downside risks.

As noted above, the application of three elements of our recently updated sovereign ratings criteria--economic structure, external, and monetary--did not materially change our view from May 2011, when we revised the outlook on Italy to negative. We continue to score Italy as a high-income sovereign with a diversified economy and few external imbalances, albeit one with what we see as weak growth prospects.

In addition, we view both household and corporate balance sheets as relatively strong, which should enable the government to tap local savings on a scale that could permit a more gradual fiscal adjustment than for some of its southern European neighbors. As of year-end 2010, Italy's nonbank sector remains in a substantial net external creditor position, while the public sector's net external liability is equivalent to €804 billion (52% of GDP). We note that Italy's current account deficit has widened recently, to more than 10% of current account receipts, but we expect this to unwind.

We expect the government, given its tight fiscal position, will provide only limited direct assistance to the banking system in the near term, and we still expect most of the Tremonti bonds, which provided four banks' Tier I capital during the 2008-2009 recession, to be repaid this year.

Outlook

The negative outlook reflects Standard & Poor's view of risks to the Italian government's fiscal targets over 2011-2014, as well as the uncertainties on the timely implementation of growth-enhancing reforms. In our view, these risks would stem from weaker output growth than we currently assume in our revised base case. In addition, political gridlock could contribute to delayed policy responses to new macroeconomic challenges and result in significant fiscal slippage.

If one or more of these risks materializes, Italy's net general government debt could increase from its already high level. In that event, we could lower the long- and short-term ratings again. We could also lower the ratings if, against our expectations, the current account deficit remained higher than 10% of current account receipts beyond 2013. This would occur if Italy's trade balance did not improve or if the income deficits continued to widen because of rising refinancing costs.

On the other hand, if the government manages to gather political support for implementing growth-enhancing structural reforms, which in turn increase prospects for a material reduction in the net public debt burden in the medium term, we could affirm the ratings at the current level.

As is typical, ratings on issues and issuances dependent on these long- and short-term ratings may be revised as a result of today's rating action.

Futures not happy:

Neither is the Euro:

 


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Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:38 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Oh, now its back to Italy as the focus shifts to the next Eurozone problem child? Whatever, this is just stupid, even a child can see the answer is to quit lying and just deal with your probems, but of course the most infantile are in charge in the insane Western World...anyway glad to see futures tanking.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:38 | Link to Comment eisley79
eisley79's picture

DONKEY KONG BITCHEZ

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:47 | Link to Comment espirit
espirit's picture

Got Gold?

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:08 | Link to Comment Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

and Silver.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 22:04 | Link to Comment Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

Don't be silly.  Those AAA French bonds are obviously where to go!

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 22:10 | Link to Comment Newsboy
Newsboy's picture

That European debt analysis yesterday showed a huge gray arrow from Italy to France. France is totally exposed to massive Italian debt default.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 01:13 | Link to Comment english serf
english serf's picture

Fuck the french

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:12 | Link to Comment papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

I think we will continue to see gold drop or stay rather horizontal for the short term as several (probably banks and large financials) try to gain paper capital to manuver. Once this is done, gold will trend up to the 2000 zone until the next crisis....the US or possibly Japan begin to break and the same pattern will repeat as gold wanders toward $3000. I doubt it will go much higher than that though...unless some major shitstorm occurs....WW3 for example.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:12 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

Guess they are going to fire the new CEO?

Wow that's a lot of bullshit for saying YOU'RE FUCKIN BROKE!

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 20:38 | Link to Comment Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

The gives S&P at least a hint of respectability. Still, Italy belongs in the junk yard.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 21:28 | Link to Comment Cleanclog
Cleanclog's picture

Arrividerci!

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:43 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

Greenshits!!!

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:53 | Link to Comment frippy
frippy's picture

Long Chianti, Monica Bellucci, Gold, and Mossberg.

Short US.gov.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:17 | Link to Comment papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Dude should see my new toy...dirty! Custom Rem 870 AOW 11" barrel for those doorway problems.

 

Remember Rule #4...double tap.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:34 | Link to Comment New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

papa, one to CM for the knockdown, then double tap.  Might surprise u w/ armor of some type.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:53 | Link to Comment macholatte
macholatte's picture

 

U.S. Marine Corps Rules:

1. Be courteous to everyone, friendly to no one.
2. Decide to be aggressive enough, quickly enough.
3. Have a plan.
4. Have a back-up plan, because the first one probably won't work.
5. Be polite, be professional, but have a plan to kill everyone you meet.
6. Do not attend a gunfight with a handgun whose caliber does not start with a "4."
7. Anything worth shooting is worth shooting twice. Ammo is cheap. Life is expensive.
8. Move away from your attacker. Distance is your friend. (Lateral & diagonal preferred.)
9. Use cover or concealment as much as possible.
10. Flank your adversary when possible. Protect yours.
11. Always cheat; always win. The only unfair fight is the one you lose.
12. In ten years nobody will remember the details of caliber, stance, or tactics. They will only remember who lived.
13. If you are not shooting, you should be communicating your intention to shoot.

Navy SEALS Rules:

1. Look very cool in sunglasses.
2. Kill every living thing within view.
3. Adjust speedo.
4. Check hair in mirror.

U.S. Army Rangers Rules:

1. Walk in 50 miles wearing 75 pound rucksack while starving.
2. Locate individuals requiring killing.
3. Request permission via radio from "Higher" to perform killing.
4. Curse bitterly when mission is aborted.
5. Walk out 50 miles wearing a 75 pound rucksack while starving.

U.S. Army Rules:

1. Select a new beret to wear.
2. Sew patches on right shoulder.
3. Change the color of beret you decide to wear.

US Air Force Rules:

1. Have a cocktail.
2. Adjust temperature on air-conditioner.
3. See what's on HBO.
4. Ask "what is a gunfight?"
5. Request more funding from Congress with a "killer" PowerPoint presentation.
6. Wine & dine 'key' Congressmen, invite DOD & defense industry executives.
7. Receive funding, set up new command and assemble assets.
8. Declare the assets "strategic" and never deploy them operationally.
9. Hurry to make 1345 tee-time.

US Navy Rules:

1. Go to Sea.
2. Drink Coffee.
3. Watch porn.
4. Deploy the Marines.

 

 

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:56 | Link to Comment Dingleberry
Dingleberry's picture

Semper Fi. Although the Navy watches porn more than drinking coffee, so switch those two. Everyone is into that red bull shit now, not coffee as much. Of course porn is endemic.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 20:10 | Link to Comment Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

The Navy has only one rule for firefights:

Send the Marines.

Sounds entirely reasonable to me.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 20:28 | Link to Comment New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

You guys might like: http://www.amazon.com/Murphys-Laws-Combat-Marion-Sturkey/dp/096508146X/r...

and "Bonnie Sue" and "Warrior Culture".

Esp. 'cuz the attack on the warrior culture is part  of the attack on all fronts.

- Ned

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 21:55 | Link to Comment X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

LOL, this GREAT STUFF!

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 20:16 | Link to Comment warchopper
warchopper's picture

I never get tired of that.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 21:03 | Link to Comment YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Absolutely, this is what takes to make the greatest army.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 21:14 | Link to Comment decon
decon's picture

The primary use of a sidearm is to fight your way to the nearest rifle.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:50 | Link to Comment Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

I have a new toy too. Mine is the Kel-Tec PMR30  several video's on youtube...check it out. It truly is  a toy but everyone who has shot it is in love with it. It attracts a lot of attention at the range!

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:08 | Link to Comment macholatte
macholatte's picture

the answer is to quit lying and just deal with your probems

 

Anger

Bargaining

Denial

Depression

Acceptance

 

It's show time!

 

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 22:05 | Link to Comment CharlieSDT
CharlieSDT's picture

The real 5 stages:

 

Denial

Denial

Denial

Oh shit!

Too late

 

I say we're getting close to denial #3.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 20:41 | Link to Comment Goldman Hufs
Goldman Hufs's picture

Bernanke will not openly admit to QE3 this week.  Our unemployment rate is high and despite their best efforts to manipulate inflation numbers down they are still above healthy levels.  If he went ahead with another round of purchasing bonds given the current conditions it would be in complete defiance of the two bullshit mandates they came up with to jusitfy this scam.  Considering that they are already under a great deal of scrutiny the backlash of publicly annoucing another round of quantitative easing would cast even more light on how this corrupt system operates leading to increased awareness by the sheeple.  Instead, they will announce that they need to step back and let the market work itself out for awhile.  But behind the scenes the Federal Reserve will be pumping the market up to keep it from crashing the minute they "step away."  If they can gradually bring it down over a three month period then QE3 will be given the greenlight under the guise that the economy is "this" close to being able to walk on its own if only it had a little extra stimulus. 

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 22:30 | Link to Comment Hubris hangover
Hubris hangover's picture

12:00 20Sep11 RTRS-A CHINA STATE BANK HAS STOPPED FX SWAPS WITH UBS, SOCIETE GENERALE, CREDIT AGRICOLE, BNP PARIBAS -SOURCES

 

.....move along, nothing to see here

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 23:19 | Link to Comment GtownSLV
GtownSLV's picture

Off topic but must see article. ....A big market-making state bank in China's onshore foreign exchange market has stopped foreign exchange forwards and swaps trading with several European banks due to the unfolding debt crisis in Europe, two sources told Reuters on Tuesday.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44588239

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 23:22 | Link to Comment GtownSLV
GtownSLV's picture
AP

The European banks include French lenders Societe Generale [SOGN.PA  17.69  ---  UNCH    ], Credit Agricole [CAGR.PA  4.883  ---  UNCH    ] and BNP Paribas [BNPP.PA  26.65  ---  UNCH    ].

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:37 | Link to Comment PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

BOOM !!!

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:11 | Link to Comment Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Last minute inventory of Beans, Bullets, and Bullion confirms I'm ready. 

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:18 | Link to Comment papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

You have until December...massive crisis during winter is better...rioters don't like extreme cold.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:38 | Link to Comment spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

"You know what can get us out of this mess? SOME INFLATION"

— Paul Krugman

hyperinflation, bitchez.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/19/when-inflation-was-good/  

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:55 | Link to Comment Let them eat iPads
Let them eat iPads's picture

Inflation brought to us by aliens.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:20 | Link to Comment papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

OMG Krugman was right!

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:47 | Link to Comment andybev01
andybev01's picture

You can still be right even if you are evil.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:38 | Link to Comment rocker
rocker's picture

Oh no, Cramer had said the correction is over.  Which could it be.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:39 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

We had a 'correction'? When was that? 

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:57 | Link to Comment rocker
rocker's picture

+1   Surely have not seen anything like captiulation with Cosmetics, AAPL and PSMT hitting the high list.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 20:08 | Link to Comment Jeff Lebowski
Jeff Lebowski's picture

I always enjoy your comments.

Well done.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:47 | Link to Comment Texas Ginslinger
Texas Ginslinger's picture

I think he meant erection.

The Viagra wore off...

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:38 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

It won't matter tomorrow.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:43 | Link to Comment Great Unwashed
Great Unwashed's picture

So true. We've seen it all before.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 20:00 | Link to Comment Mactheknife
Mactheknife's picture

Never seen a market so ready and willing to run headlong into certain disaster.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:38 | Link to Comment Flatchestynerdette
Flatchestynerdette's picture

and now S&P will soon be hauled before the Hague to answer for their crimes against the Euro, same as it is being hauled to answer questions in front of the USA's Congress and various agencies.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:38 | Link to Comment Yamaha
Yamaha's picture

Master of the obvious.....once again.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:40 | Link to Comment X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

TPTB are just knockin' these countries down like clay pigeons....

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:40 | Link to Comment King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

So is the new S&P Chairman/CEO going to be fired or does that special appreciation apply to downgrading the US rating ?

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:40 | Link to Comment Irish66
Irish66's picture

After France downgrade.  Thanks for the laugh

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:04 | Link to Comment FinalCollapse
FinalCollapse's picture

S&P: Welcome to the Italian 'No Fly List'.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:39 | Link to Comment oogs66
oogs66's picture

Who they going to fire this time? S&P will only have janitors and aaa rubber stamps. There is a business model Warren could love

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:39 | Link to Comment caerus
caerus's picture

i hope the ES finally breaks...kinda tired of waiting

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:39 | Link to Comment P Rankmug
P Rankmug's picture

It will miraculously all be better by morning.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:54 | Link to Comment CH1
CH1's picture

Quite possibly... until it's not.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:40 | Link to Comment fdisk
fdisk's picture

And GOLD still doing nothing? Whatever..

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:08 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Gold is only allowed to move during NY trading hours. Any price overnight price run-ups will be promptly reversed pre-market at 8:30 Eastern, and any overnight selloffs will be promptly bid up pre-market at the same time. Makes it harder for the hoi-poloi to capitalize on the big moves. But this is probably why the sell-off today - now they can tolerate a $30 crank tomorrow and price still hasn't moved relative to Friday's close.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:40 | Link to Comment Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Omerta Bitchez

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:23 | Link to Comment Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Omerta also happens to be the first and second rule of fight club. 

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 20:44 | Link to Comment baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

Whoever appeals to the law against his fellow man is either a fool or a coward. Whoever cannot take care of himself without that law is both. For a wounded man shall say to his assailant, "If I Die, You are forgiven. If I Live, I will kill you." Such is the Rule of Honor.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xo6mlxmla2w 

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:42 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Wow its really gonna be fun on Wednesday when The Bernank comes out and pulls a lump of coal out of his ass instead of the much predicted Golden Unicorn.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:44 | Link to Comment HeNateMe
HeNateMe's picture

Depending on how long it was in his ass it might come out diamonds.  But I'm no proctologist. 

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:50 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Could be, but Im not sure even The Bernank can generate enough heat and pressure in his ass to turn a lump of coal into a diamond.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:52 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Damn, that was funny!

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:53 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

dup - but BTW, IS there a proctologist around here who could confirm this?

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:02 | Link to Comment Ima anal sphincter
Ima anal sphincter's picture

I just handle delivery.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:33 | Link to Comment papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Damn it man!!!! that was a good Cab I was drinking!

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 21:23 | Link to Comment Korbin Dallas
Korbin Dallas's picture

Damn it, papa, that was a good Belhaven Scottish Ale I was drinking (the banker's malt).

9 years ago, on a golf session near Lago di Garda this tanned 5-week vacation-taking (commercial, likely) local banker told me while viewing the misty cultured Lombardy vista before us, "not so bad our quality of life, eh, better than America, eh?"  I let him stew.  Wonder if he's flippin' pizzas now.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:47 | Link to Comment dasein211
dasein211's picture

Crazy as it seems i think you're right. Unless grease defaults first there is no way bernanke lubes up the markets before that shitstorm hits. It'll nullify any qe instantaneously. I think he's gonna wait to see if grease lights up the euro first so that he can judge the proper amount of lube necessary. Then he'llmstick it in... But it wont be just the tip!

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:55 | Link to Comment nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Greasy grease?

LOL

 

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:05 | Link to Comment phraseshifter
phraseshifter's picture

long "Ben-Gay"...

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:55 | Link to Comment jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

with obama and the europeans...its more like Astro Glide!!

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:56 | Link to Comment tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

 

Take your pick: 850,000 psi for 4 days or 5 GPa (giga pascals) at 1,500 degrees Celsius, it takes only a couple of hours.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/videos/2007/0201-man_made_diamonds.htm

 

http://questional.com/31-much-pressure-time-take-transform-coal-into-dia...

 

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 21:51 | Link to Comment Fate
Fate's picture

But Ass-Coal has been priced in since 2009.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:40 | Link to Comment medicalstudent
medicalstudent's picture

anything to keep king dollar best-of-worst class.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:42 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

Sounds like as good a reason to dump a boatload of short gold contracts on the exchanges as any to me.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:42 | Link to Comment Gunpowder Plott...
Gunpowder Plotter_Jr.'s picture

euro will be higher when US opens for trading :) 

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:42 | Link to Comment Gunpowder Plott...
Gunpowder Plotter_Jr.'s picture

euro will be higher when US opens for trading :) 

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:43 | Link to Comment scheka
scheka's picture

please downgrade spain

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 21:54 | Link to Comment Fate
Fate's picture

You mean like in 1898?

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:43 | Link to Comment Yamaha
Yamaha's picture

Reminds me of shooting my mothers cats - liked them but they were lazy and not that nice.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 20:13 | Link to Comment espirit
espirit's picture

Make sure when you skin them to remove the feet, that way nobody can tell they aren't possums.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 23:35 | Link to Comment infinity8
infinity8's picture

or 'coons

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:44 | Link to Comment They are all we...
They are all well Capitalised's picture

Panic Bitchez! Couldn't resist.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:44 | Link to Comment Little John
Little John's picture

WOLF!!! wolf???

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:45 | Link to Comment fdisk
fdisk's picture

Too much noise from those MF agencies lately will somebody shut them down finally?  Who the f* rely on those criminals opinion anyhow, after they rated mortgage junk in 2006-8 as AAA? Put them all in prison behind bars for 20 years alone with Madoff.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:44 | Link to Comment alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

I was wondering WTF caused that spike in the dollar against just about everything....kept hitting refresh on ZH....finally.

Tyler...we're gonna be needing ZH radio because this shit is all happeing far faster than any one or ten human beings can type. (and yes...I know about the hook up with "Talking Forex" and it's fuckin great. Especially for me since I mainly trade forex.)

How about a live radio feed with music (a-la the Marla late night radio days) and it's interrupted by news? Come on./..we all know you've got plenty of free time:-)

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:57 | Link to Comment jdelano
jdelano's picture

Now there's a stock I'd invest in--ZH media. Only problem is, once the tylers sell this bitch to bloomberg it'll turn into just another cnbc, albeit with cooler tshirts.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:43 | Link to Comment scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

for real TD could become a media empire and is only limited by his decision to do so.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:36 | Link to Comment A L I E N
A L I E N's picture

Zerohedge twitter had a post right away on this, might want to monitor that as well

http://twitter.com/#!/zerohedge

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 20:10 | Link to Comment alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

I just can't bring myself to use twitter. I don't know if it's my need for full sentences or what...but I just can't cross that final bridge into the world of and half words and semi thoughts.

Maybe it's just age. Fuck, I thought reel-to-reel was gonna be around forever....And yes...I once owned an 8 track tape deck. I confess.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:52 | Link to Comment tickhound
tickhound's picture

 

 

Flash forward to... "Troika and Italy have apparently reached a deal moving stocks off their session lows"

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:47 | Link to Comment Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

"Mama fucking Mia", screamed Berlusconi as he slapped the 3 Ukranian nurses bathing his old wrinkly balls!

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:58 | Link to Comment Let them eat iPads
Let them eat iPads's picture

You make him sound like some sort of caricature.

Oh...right.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 20:18 | Link to Comment alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

Hey, that's Berlusconi you're talking about...it's 3 Ukranian 17 year old supermodels.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:47 | Link to Comment Hman
Hman's picture

Without the Euro, every one was doing fine! I have a feeling that this was all pre-planned.  Just look at Ireland and Iceland they were doing very good before the banksters got them to join the Euro.   Few years later, they got them addicted to cheap free cash and pimped all over the place.  Now they are infected with AIDS and are cash junkies!  Soon they will sell every thing for one more fix.

Let it crash ... so what .. YOU WILL BE FREED.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:48 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Putin told them all a while back to save themselves and tell the EBC to go piss off!

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 20:54 | Link to Comment mjk0259
mjk0259's picture

Iceland wasn't/isn't in the Euro.

 

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:47 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Look at that sick closing pump on the SP and the quick sell off after hours....all these criminals should be put on a prison island and forgotten. Leave them to cannibalize each other.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:51 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

They'd sell derivatives on each other and create the whole stinking thing again in the process.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:51 | Link to Comment Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Make it a game like this one

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-T7yPJVvXw

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 20:54 | Link to Comment Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Why not just build a wall around NYC, and call it a prison?

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:48 | Link to Comment YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Vote S&P the next president!

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:49 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

I AM SO SICK OF THIS SHIT...

Anyone remember that Foreigner Song...

Head games, it's you and me baby
Head games, and I can't take it anymore
Head games, I don't wanna play the...
Head games

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 20:11 | Link to Comment Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

We are old.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 21:05 | Link to Comment Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Kansas - Dust in the wind 1977

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wp4O7v5320

 First album I ever owned.

Tue, 09/20/2011 - 00:18 | Link to Comment Falcon15
Falcon15's picture

Creedence Clearwater Revival - Willy and the Poor Boys. My first album

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pl1xATrGMtg&feature=share

 

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 20:16 | Link to Comment CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

No. It's all good. Be patient. The more debt they shuffle around, the steeper the walls of the pyramid. The louder the crash when it comes down. 1860----------->2012.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:50 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Downgraded to 'A' - what a joke. This is what passes for 'realistic' today. I've said it before - these guys would give crackheads living on the street, selling their blood for the next hit an 'A' rating - with a negative outlook of course ('cause they might run out of blood).

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:16 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea really, 'A'?? WTF theyre all bankrupt, and have A ratings? Sick world when you can be flat broke and busted, and still deemed an 'A' credit worthy.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:52 | Link to Comment Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

Time to don your hardhats folks, we have dangerously large chunks falling off this crumbling facade.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:02 | Link to Comment frippy
frippy's picture

Nah...won't mean shit. These reprobates are masters at stringing it along.

***YAWN***

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:56 | Link to Comment LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

Enter the ECB. Rates down to 5%, problem solved. Yaaaawn. Anything interesting happening? No? Merry Christmas then.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:57 | Link to Comment JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

There should be a "Credibility" rating on the ratings companies.

 

Moody's - D or even F

S&P - C+ (the US is bankrupt, not AA+)

Fitch - C

 

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:14 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Exactly - the ratings are like grades at a 'special needs' school - "we don't like to judge or compete here, everybody's special in their own way". Since when does 'bankrupt' warrant an A rating?

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:59 | Link to Comment Misean
Misean's picture

Perhaps if the Troika has Italy bail out Greece as a condition for some bail out money...

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 18:59 | Link to Comment Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

Oil looked rather phallic at 5:30 pm cdt, what was that about?

 

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:02 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Everythng will be fine, you'll see. Now put your money where even Bernie Madoff wouldn't: the market. 

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:04 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

Buy into the EU Phone companies...there is going to be a lot of conference calling going on.......lets see ...this should take down the markets..and raise PM´s.....but it won´t...where is Sieman going to put there money now?????

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:04 | Link to Comment anyways
anyways's picture

At least the S&P guys are consistent. I wait for the day they downgrade Germany. This will be a few days after the 'only guaranteed money' materialize.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:07 | Link to Comment The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

IMO: We will see a correction in 'everything' for 6-12 months...The PM's will be channel locked for a while... The Gx equity market will grind flat-lower for a year or more (assuming no QE to Infinity which I doubt would have any effect past a month at most)... This is the time to raise cash and let the big boys fight!  I know it will be extremely hard to not go all in at some point... For long term investors, it matters not!  For short term speculators, it could mean everything!  The best move for us peasants is to be passive and most definitely not aggresive!!!  This is a passing phase that in the long run, is nothing but a blip on the long term... However.. even a 20% move buying a monster box is like $4000...

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:07 | Link to Comment TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Holy Cannoli:))) !

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:07 | Link to Comment Irish66
Irish66's picture

Euro breaks 1.3230 and our boredom will end

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:08 | Link to Comment Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

They can't hold this together anymore, the only thing left is to circle the wagons and wait out the destruction.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:08 | Link to Comment ActionFive
ActionFive's picture

How convenient- this/that and FOMC fest the next few days.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:10 | Link to Comment Sequitur
Sequitur's picture

Does "A" denote debt Armageddon?

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:13 | Link to Comment MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

It's spelled detonate.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:17 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

lol

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:27 | Link to Comment Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

+1 Lol.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:11 | Link to Comment frugartarian
frugartarian's picture

MAMA MIA! 

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:13 | Link to Comment zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

The S&P analyst who downgraded Italy is going to find a severed horse head in his bed when he wakes up tomorrow morning.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:14 | Link to Comment mbutler101
mbutler101's picture

Ok Italy, time to liquidate some assets. We'll take Beretta, Nutella, and Elisabetta Canalis. If you could apply the Nutella to Elisabetta and send her over, I will personally make sure she is properly cleaned up...Smithers, prepare my bunker, I don't want to be disturbed until 12/21/2012!

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 21:40 | Link to Comment spdrdr
spdrdr's picture

Is it coincidence that we now have a Ferrari California?  I think not!

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:14 | Link to Comment More_sellers_th...
More_sellers_than_buyers's picture

I hate that moron...he is the living breathing Dan Dorfmann!!! I saw him on CNBS today say "yeah people like trading thos dollar stocks(about MU) ...It is a 7 billion dollar company that employs thousands.  It has a billion share float! Sorry jackass that its not good enough for you to look at. What a frekan asshole. I don't think I have ever owned MU, I have traded it for clients in ears gone by, but I'm pretty damn sure the guys at that company are alot smater than you cramer, absolut dipshit

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:14 | Link to Comment More_sellers_th...
More_sellers_than_buyers's picture

I hate that moron...he is the living breathing Dan Dorfmann!!! I saw him on CNBS today say "yeah people like trading thos dollar stocks(about MU) ...It is a 7 billion dollar company that employs thousands.  It has a billion share float! Sorry jackass that its not good enough for you to look at. What a frekan asshole. I don't think I have ever owned MU, I have traded it for clients in ears gone by, but I'm pretty damn sure the guys at that company are alot smater than you cramer, absolut dipshit

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:17 | Link to Comment FiscalCrater
FiscalCrater's picture

Stockpile Pasta!!

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:23 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Italy and Spain are done. Greece was over so long ago it's now mainstream and okay to talk about it. The fact is Europe will not bail out their banks. What they are in fact DOING is letting their banks fail--something many of us have argued here we should have done. Italy and Spain must follow. The question that now must be asked is what will the IMF bailout will look like. We will bail out France because they are integral to making sure Europe in general and Germany in particular stay together. Obviously Spain, Sweden and England will be critical to this as well. We're now well past "the money thing" since Europe just told a very giving US Treasury Secretary to go suck a mean one. How this impacts here at home is anyone's guess--needless to say it will. I would stay away from any municipal debt from a city of more than 100,000. And of course gold looks great...until French sovereigns are yielding double digits. That's the price of a ridiculously valued euro--which will stay outrageously over-valued...right up to the point it becomes worthless.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 20:06 | Link to Comment Dingleberry
Dingleberry's picture

I agree with you fellow vet, but their banks have not yet failed. When they do, we will know it. For sure.  Our banks will be hit here too. Hard.  I suspect that the banks will try and put the screws to the common euro-fucker, and hope they bite on a bailout, or bonds, or bazooka, or whatever the fuck. Remember, "it's for their own good".  We'll see if they learned anything from the late Dr. Goebbels about propaganda.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 20:50 | Link to Comment ricocyb13
ricocyb13's picture

I guess you are wrong with Sweden.

Sweden does not have EUR but Swedish Krona.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 21:00 | Link to Comment mjk0259
mjk0259's picture

The fact that they told Geithner to go suck a mean one means they still have some reasoning ability and therefore there is hope. The unemployment, trade balance and government deficit situations in most of Europe are much better than US. All of this Euro debt is owed primarily to themselves - not to China like US. US spent more on Afghanistan/Iraq then the total amount of Euro debt that will probably not be repaid - almost all borrowed and unrepayable.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:30 | Link to Comment wretch
wretch's picture

Things are about to get unpredictable for everyone.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:30 | Link to Comment DonBadajoz
DonBadajoz's picture

Burns bitches burn!!!!

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:34 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Yes and Greece will now be a defaulted country from the market perspective, sans the idiocy of the EU/IMF and F*ck knows who else.

The EU will crumble via political/social upheaval.

I think Greece is beyond a joke, but the Italians, well good hardworking people, cept they have a mental case running the country.  But Italy will go too...back to the Lire.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 20:55 | Link to Comment ricocyb13
ricocyb13's picture

unfortunately, Italy is managed by the Mafia. And Berlusconi is a big Mafia-boss - how do you think he managed to become a billionaire?

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:38 | Link to Comment Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

... don't care. I am long in Ruby.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:45 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

CME just raised margins on STOCK MARKET FUTURES.  I crap you not.  8 pages of margin raises on various contracts.

http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/lookups/advisories/clearing/files/Chadv11-334.pdf

Boom!  Headshot!

 

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:57 | Link to Comment scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

don't we spike hire on this news with all the record short interest ?  Maybe we rocket higher squeezing the last shorts out of the market and then everything goes down at once... Greece, Italy, no QE3 all timed to hit at once sending /ES to 250 with no one around to enjoy the gains.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 20:17 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

yeah you get 6 days of margin/no volume meltups.  When the S&P melted up, DOW futures went down.  It's a mess.  With all the bad news and about to get worst news, we are goin to see some brutal margin calls.

Mon, 09/19/2011 - 19:40 | Link to Comment razorthin
razorthin's picture

yawn

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