S&P Downgrades US To AA+, Outlook Negative - Full Text
United States of America Long-Term Rating Lowered To 'AA+' On Political Risks And Rising Debt Burden; Outlook Negative
We have lowered our long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to 'AA+' from 'AAA' and affirmed the 'A-1+' short-term rating.
We have also removed both the short- and long-term ratings from CreditWatch negative.
The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government's medium-term debt dynamics.
More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policymaking and political institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic challenges to a degree more than we envisioned when we assigned a negative outlook to the rating on April 18, 2011.
Since then, we have changed our view of the difficulties in bridging the gulf between the political parties over fiscal policy, which makes us pessimistic about the capacity of Congress and the Administration to be able to leverage their agreement this week into a broader fiscal consolidation plan that stabilizes the government's debt dynamics any time soon.
The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. We could lower the long-term rating to 'AA' within the next two years if we see that less reduction in spending than agreed to, higher interest rates, or new fiscal pressures during the period result in a higher general government debt trajectory than we currently assume in our base case.
Rating Action
On Aug. 5, 2011, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to 'AA+' from 'AAA'. The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. At the same time, Standard & Poor's affirmed its 'A-1+' short-term rating on the U.S. In addition, Standard & Poor's removed both ratings from CreditWatch, where they were placed on July 14, 2011, with negative implications.
The transfer and convertibility (T&C) assessment of the U.S.--our assessment of the likelihood of official interference in the ability of U.S.-based public- and private-sector issuers to secure foreign exchange for debt service--remains 'AAA'.
Rationale
We lowered our long-term rating on the U.S. because we believe that the prolonged controversy over raising the statutory debt ceiling and the related fiscal policy debate indicate that further near-term progress containing the growth in public spending, especially on entitlements, or on reaching an agreement on raising revenues is less likely than we previously assumed and will remain a contentious and fitful process. We also believe that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration agreed to this week falls short of the amount that we believe is necessary to stabilize the general government debt burden by the middle of the decade.
Our lowering of the rating was prompted by our view on the rising public debt burden and our perception of greater policymaking uncertainty, consistent with our criteria (see "Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and Assumptions," June 30, 2011, especially Paragraphs 36-41). Nevertheless, we view the U.S. federal government's other economic, external, and monetary credit attributes, which form the basis for the sovereign rating, as broadly unchanged.
We have taken the ratings off CreditWatch because the Aug. 2 passage of the Budget Control Act Amendment of 2011 has removed any perceived immediate threat of payment default posed by delays to raising the government's debt ceiling. In addition, we believe that the act provides sufficient clarity to allow us to evaluate the likely course of U.S. fiscal policy for the next few years.
The political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America's governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed. The statutory debt ceiling and the threat of default have become political bargaining chips in the debate over fiscal policy. Despite this year's wide-ranging debate, in our view, the differences between political parties have proven to be extraordinarily difficult to bridge, and, as we see it, the resulting agreement fell well short of the comprehensive fiscal consolidation program that some proponents had envisaged until quite recently. Republicans and Democrats have only been able to agree to relatively modest savings on discretionary spending while delegating to the Select Committee decisions on more comprehensive measures. It appears that for now, new revenues have dropped down on the menu of policy options. In addition, the plan envisions only minor policy changes on Medicare and little change in other entitlements, the containment of which we and most other independent observers regard as key to long-term fiscal sustainability.
Our opinion is that elected officials remain wary of tackling the structural issues required to effectively address the rising U.S. public debt burden in a manner consistent with a 'AAA' rating and with 'AAA' rated sovereign peers (see Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and Assumptions," June 30, 2011, especially Paragraphs 36-41). In our view, the difficulty in framing a consensus on fiscal policy weakens the government's ability to manage public finances and diverts attention from the debate over how to achieve more balanced and dynamic economic growth in an era of fiscal stringency and private-sector deleveraging (ibid). A new political consensus might (or might not) emerge after the 2012 elections, but we believe that by then, the government debt burden will likely be higher, the needed medium-term fiscal adjustment potentially greater, and the inflection point on the U.S. population's demographics and other age-related spending drivers closer at hand (see "Global Aging 2011: In The U.S., Going Gray Will Likely Cost Even More Green, Now," June 21, 2011).
Standard & Poor's takes no position on the mix of spending and revenue measures that Congress and the Administration might conclude is appropriate for putting the U.S.'s finances on a sustainable footing.
The act calls for as much as $2.4 trillion of reductions in expenditure growth over the 10 years through 2021. These cuts will be implemented in two steps: the $917 billion agreed to initially, followed by an additional $1.5 trillion that the newly formed Congressional Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction is supposed to recommend by November 2011. The act contains no measures to raise taxes or otherwise enhance revenues, though the committee could recommend them.
The act further provides that if Congress does not enact the committee's recommendations, cuts of $1.2 trillion will be implemented over the same time period. The reductions would mainly affect outlays for civilian discretionary spending, defense, and Medicare. We understand that this fall-back mechanism is designed to encourage Congress to embrace a more balanced mix of expenditure savings, as the committee might recommend.
We note that in a letter to Congress on Aug. 1, 2011, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated total budgetary savings under the act to be at least $2.1 trillion over the next 10 years relative to its baseline assumptions. In updating our own fiscal projections, with certain modifications outlined below, we have relied on the CBO's latest "Alternate Fiscal Scenario" of June 2011, updated to include the CBO assumptions contained in its Aug. 1 letter to Congress. In general, the CBO's "Alternate Fiscal Scenario" assumes a continuation of recent Congressional action overriding existing law.
We view the act's measures as a step toward fiscal consolidation. However, this is within the framework of a legislative mechanism that leaves open the details of what is finally agreed to until the end of 2011, and Congress and the Administration could modify any agreement in the future. Even assuming that at least $2.1 trillion of the spending reductions the act envisages are implemented, we maintain our view that the U.S. net general government debt burden (all levels of government combined, excluding liquid financial assets) will likely continue to grow. Under our revised base case fiscal scenario--which we consider to be consistent with a 'AA+' long-term rating and a negative outlook--we now project that net general government debt would rise from an estimated 74% of GDP by the end of 2011 to 79% in 2015 and 85% by 2021. Even the projected 2015 ratio of sovereign indebtedness is high in relation to those of peer credits and, as noted, would continue to rise under the act's revised policy settings.
Compared with previous projections, our revised base case scenario now assumes that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, due to expire by the end of 2012, remain in place. We have changed our assumption on this because the majority of Republicans in Congress continue to resist any measure that would raise revenues, a position we believe Congress reinforced by passing the act. Key macroeconomic assumptions in the base case scenario include trend real GDP growth of 3% and consumer price inflation near 2% annually over the decade.
Our revised upside scenario--which, other things being equal, we view as consistent with the outlook on the 'AA+' long-term rating being revised to stable--retains these same macroeconomic assumptions. In addition, it incorporates $950 billion of new revenues on the assumption that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for high earners lapse from 2013 onwards, as the Administration is advocating. In this scenario, we project that the net general government debt would rise from an estimated 74% of GDP by the end of 2011 to 77% in 2015 and to 78% by 2021.
Our revised downside scenario--which, other things being equal, we view as being consistent with a possible further downgrade to a 'AA' long-term rating--features less-favorable macroeconomic assumptions, as outlined below and also assumes that the second round of spending cuts (at least $1.2 trillion) that the act calls for does not occur. This scenario also assumes somewhat higher nominal interest rates for U.S. Treasuries. We still believe that the role of the U.S. dollar as the key reserve currency confers a government funding advantage, one that could change only slowly over time, and that Fed policy might lean toward continued loose monetary policy at a time of fiscal tightening. Nonetheless, it is possible that interest rates could rise if investors re-price relative risks. As a result, our alternate scenario factors in a 50 basis point (bp)-75 bp rise in 10-year bond yields relative to the base and upside cases from 2013 onwards. In this scenario, we project the net public debt burden would rise from 74% of GDP in 2011 to 90% in 2015 and to 101% by 2021.
Our revised scenarios also take into account the significant negative revisions to historical GDP data that the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced on July 29. From our perspective, the effect of these revisions underscores two related points when evaluating the likely debt trajectory of the U.S. government. First, the revisions show that the recent recession was deeper than previously assumed, so the GDP this year is lower than previously thought in both nominal and real terms. Consequently, the debt burden is slightly higher. Second, the revised data highlight the sub-par path of the current economic recovery when compared with rebounds following previous post-war recessions. We believe the sluggish pace of the current economic recovery could be consistent with the experiences of countries that have had financial crises in which the slow process of debt deleveraging in the private sector leads to a persistent drag on demand. As a result, our downside case scenario assumes relatively modest real trend GDP growth of 2.5% and inflation of near 1.5% annually going forward.
When comparing the U.S. to sovereigns with 'AAA' long-term ratings that we view as relevant peers--Canada, France, Germany, and the U.K.--we also observe, based on our base case scenarios for each, that the trajectory of the U.S.'s net public debt is diverging from the others. Including the U.S., we estimate that these five sovereigns will have net general government debt to GDP ratios this year ranging from 34% (Canada) to 80% (the U.K.), with the U.S. debt burden at 74%. By 2015, we project that their net public debt to GDP ratios will range between 30% (lowest, Canada) and 83% (highest, France), with the U.S. debt burden at 79%. However, in contrast with the U.S., we project that the net public debt burdens of these other sovereigns will begin to decline, either before or by 2015.
Standard & Poor's transfer T&C assessment of the U.S. remains 'AAA'. Our T&C assessment reflects our view of the likelihood of the sovereign restricting other public and private issuers' access to foreign exchange needed to meet debt service. Although in our view the credit standing of the U.S. government has deteriorated modestly, we see little indication that official interference of this kind is entering onto the policy agenda of either Congress or the Administration. Consequently, we continue to view this risk as being highly remote.
Outlook
The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. As our downside alternate fiscal scenario illustrates, a higher public debt trajectory than we currently
assume could lead us to lower the long-term rating again. On the other hand, as our upside scenario highlights, if the recommendations of the Congressional Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction--independently or coupled with other initiatives, such as the lapsing of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for high earners--lead to fiscal consolidation measures beyond the minimum mandated, and we believe they are likely to slow the deterioration of the government's debt dynamics, the long-term rating could stabilize at 'AA+'.
On Monday, we will issue separate releases concerning affected ratings in the funds, government-related entities, financial institutions, insurance, public finance, and structured finance sectors.
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Well played. When is the next downgrade??
NFL pre-season starts next week so who cares
He's our only hope.....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GJOVPjhXMY&feature=related
Save the Republic!
And i was expecting Ron Paul
Circle the wagons Boys & Girls.
On Monday morning, make sure you have adequate supplies of TP in your bathroom.
Because, the shit is going to fly fast and hard.
And by the time the bell rings at 1600 hours, your long-term-hold portfolio will the worth the square root of negative one.
Enjoy.
Why does S&P hate America?
The other way around: why does America hates S&P?
Obama is done. 'The Man Who Lost Our Credit Rating'. D-o-n-e. That entity that bet 1 Billion that we would get a downgrade just got P A I D $$$$$. Major power play in action, you don't challenge the president without big guns. Stay tuned.
I hope the Onion does a parody of the Free Credit Report commercial with Barry, Timmy and Benny playing the three dudes normally in those commercials. Just a suggestion, if anyone working for the Onion comes here for ideas.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banana_republic. ...Bitchez!
Things to do this weekend.......
1. Buy gold.
2. Buy silver.
Prices are fixed until Asia opens...tick tock.
Maybe short term. I think we may be in for a surprise when deflation kicks in and gold and silver drops hard.
I hope that we are at the bottom of a beautiful channel on the indexes. HNS played out and if you look at the weekly, we didn't close below the lower channel.
I'm telling you guys, we have been getting played by the big boys since February. They have been using the news to sell their accumulation and now that they have completely got rid of their accumulation 2 weeks ago, they loaded up on puts on the indexes and shorted them.
I still think Ben Bernanke knows exactly what he's doing. He sold a butt load of calls at the top of the indexes and bought a butt load of puts. Now that we are at the lower end of the channel and has practically got everyone to capitulate, he is now selling a butt load of puts and buying a butt load of calls until we get to the top of the channel. Genius!!!! Come on guys, how all do you think Ben Bernanke is going to clean his balance sheet of bad debt and get the USA back to triple AAA status? Not through Congress, but through the sheeple. Ben knows exactly what he's doing and playing dumb.
The H&S target is still several points lower.
trampstamp, you ascribe too much power and foresight to tptb.
The first and most likely explanation for nearly all of human action is ineptitude.
The second is that the road to hell is paved with good intentions.
Third, and last, is conspiracy. Conspiracies, especially large ones, usually fail.
They are as adrift as everyone else. Recall Geithner swearing there would be no downgrade. He didn't appear to be a dumbfuck to promote a conspiracy. He appeared to be a dumbfuck because he is a dumbfuck.
Remember, Geithner could have simply been lying. S&P could also be in on the game.
I agree with your sentiments though. Usually when conspiracy is the suspect, incompetence is the culprit.
Read what happened after the second dip in the 1929 depression (it was still considered a recession at the time).
We are now in an economic depression as well. History always repeats so if you want to know what's going to
happen let the depression of '29 history be your guide. One hint, FDR attempted to confiscate Gold because it
had become real money and the US Dollar was looked upon as junk.
2.5 trillion debt ceiling raise.....that's not deflation kids.
QE3 as reported yesterday on ZH......again....not deflation kids.
@trampstamp-deflation is a myth. The FED prints money consistently, just some years more than others. The only time there is really deflation is when liquidity in the bond/commercial credit market is frozen, IE Nov 2008. Even then, it is really just a brief anomoly of money in a holding pattern.
But yes, this is a diabolical move. QE3 is a bad move politically, so they will bring the American sheep to their knees until they beg for it and realize they are slaves to the FED and they are the ones running the show. Make no mistake, this country is on its last leg and people better enjoy their consumer-driven lives now because around the corner, they will be worrying about their survival...
Godspeed.
Right now America barely knows this is going on. It will take a lot more to bring them to their knees. I'm staying bearish until the masses start cashing in the 401Ks.
PS glad to see your son didn't have to sell you into slavery to meet his margin calls.
@Fred-agreed and my son only has a 'play' account he messes around with. He doesn't actually have real money to spend.
I'm staying bearish until the masses start cashing in the 401Ks.
They've been cashing them in for years, Fred.
.
Bernanke is an academic stooge. I doubt he's ever made a buck in the market. He's not playing the market right now. He's sharpening his tools for QE3 and waiting to play his "I told you so" rhetoric.
I agreed with you that the FED is manipulating yet again the markets,... I just would like to know where and how are you following up their buy/sell put and call options.
Thks.
Yup, paper Silver is at a discount but physical Silver is unchanged at my dealers. Even worse, he says that there is a major disconnect with the price of Paper Vs Physical and that the price is now set as to what mood he is in. I hope his Mrs doesnt say no!
Saudi Markets are down 5.5% today (Open for trading on Saturday)
Will the NYSE's circuit breakers be used on Monday? I'm guessing, yes.
How do you say, "Thank you S&P" in Italian?
Grazie!
The whole financail system is Korrupt and Kapput ...
"Why should China — manufacturing powerhouse to the world — accept debased American currency when instead it could sell its goods to Europe, Russia, India or its own domestic market?
There is one answer to that question, and I don't like it much, because it sets a precedent of coercion and belligerence that can only end badly: America's nuclear arsenal."
http://azizonomics.com/2011/08/06/junking-krugma/
Love how the price move happens before the downgrade, no doubt some S&P insiders taking the opportunity to trade on this.
Gold to $1700 on the open? There are literally no sell orders on the overnight market on bullionvault. MUhahahaha
$2000 this week?
Hedgies will periodically liquidate on the way up causing $50 shocks here and there to pay down losses on NFLX and LULU but i think a majority may read the macro picture and realize they have to eat losses elsewhere and sit tight on GLD.
It's all pre-arranged. and theater.
Think I'm a conspiracy nut? Okay, fine, but think about this for just a moment:
S&P is a U.S. based ratings agency, subject to subpoena power by the Senate and full Congress.
S&P has made terrible calls, and lacks an iota of credibility, in reality, and the same could be said of Moody's & Fitch .
So, does anyone really, truly believe that any private ratings agency (the David) could do this without approval from Uncle Sam (the Goliath), without complete and total retaliation and destruction in response?
Think.
There's a reason that everything looks chaotic and they want to panic everyone again, just like they did in 2008.
They can't use the exact same play they did then, because it's been dissected and analyzed, and too many people (if even only a small % of the population) realize that was a massive scam in order to facilitate the 5.3 trillion dollar transfer of taxpayer dollars to Wall Street and TBTF banks.
So....what purpose does this downgrade serve? It definitely serves a clear agenda. Think outside the box. Think globally. Think about the factual plans that have been directly laid out for all to see, or that have been exposed through leaks or other means.
Gentlemen, everyone should be alarmed, but for vastly different reasons than what they want us all to believe.
This is being done, and with behind the scenes prompting by our very own government, to pave the way for the government to say "oh well, our hands are bound, and we'll be forced to cut spending on social spending now," while our same government continues to transfer the 'savings' from cuts in social programs to TBTF Banks & Wall Street.
Damn that S&P!!! Those bastards!!! "Oh well, sorry, taxpayers and social program recipients."
Wall Street & TBTF Banks take absolute precedent. Watch how the cuts to follow in social programs and taxpayer-to-taxpayer transfer payments get marked to roughly the amount that the Treasury/Federal Reserve used to bail out Wall Street parasites.
Welcome to the non-Hollywood version of The Matrix, and be careful to not bumb your head or twist your ankle when you jump down into the cosmic bunny hole, bitchez.
Not going to argue with your theory, after all it is only an logical interpretation. You do realize that the S&P action does not change anything, i.e. no convenants are breached. It is the next downgrade, (Fitch or Moody) that has real effect. S&P fired a warning shot, no doubt telegraphed from the the Treasury. S&P also made an effort at some semblance of intellectual honesty. albeit in a backhanded calculated manner.
you have to love how a couple of years ago the anger was palpable but now the anger is quelled by trolls. its easy to vent real anger but trully this was almost inconceivable before the trolls came. gotta love the tactics. vent and chill, the enemy has calmed you.
Not sure who you are referring to as a troll in this exchange, please elaborate...
"no convenants are breached. It is the next downgrade, (Fitch or Moody) that has real effect."
+1000
keep perspective - at the moment, this is only psychological - on the markets
the next downgrade has legal and technical financial consequences
"keep perspective - at the moment, this is only psychological - on the markets"
The markets are psychologically driven. When fear and panic take over, there is little that logic will do to stem the tide.
Let's see - Moodys the same outfit that rated the CDO/CDS's at AAA. Yeah - that's the ticket.
Good morning Flak,
I have to agree. Anyone one invested in the market has read the writing on the walls. This continues to play into what I have been saying for awhile- it's all about volatility. Money is made on dramatic movements in the markets, especially when you have the inside information to maximize your returns.
The banks need money and the market remains an excellent opague transfer mechanism. Any large movements in gold and silver will be similarly traded. Volatility, volatility, volatility.
Farm Report from Western Ky: very uneven growth from the cycles of heavy rain and high temperatures. Parts of the fields are oxygen starved and not producing. Corn looks small and yields look to be low. The high heat is prematurely killing the corn and starting the dryout before it reaches maturity. Soybeans may be better, but since they were planted late, it is too early to tell.
Hope all s well in your neck of the woods.
Top of the morning to you as well...getting back to ZH after a 2 week sojurn....
Thanks for the farm update.... I fear some of that volatility will be in the price of grains and whatnot this autumn...
Don't worry we have specially modified foods and unlimited fertilizer and energy to fix these problems
....
Welcome back Flak
yep same here in central ky one field looks great but acroos the road not
Up here in North Dakota the crops are looking very wet , the yealds will be down but i am sure the USDA will spin it differntly so we can sell more corn to china that we have not got . Don't be surprised if we have food problems in the fall that is if we get passed the end of september, good luck to all
While I trust your comments over the years I think you (and many others) miss the main point viewed from a different perspective. I posted this a few minutes ago after my meeting with some very worried people. They feel this . It is the hard truth this is no laughing matter as it trips a few protection switches.
(copy / paste)
Not once has it been said..... anywhere .. It HAS NOT BEEN SAID ....get it.... NOT been said !!!!!!!!!
This is the Worlds Reserve Currency !!!!!!
It has been defiled, Fucked, screwed with, lost its Purity, raped, Buggered, slut fested, gang raped, cherry popped, defiled, debased, royally screwed with, NOT to be Trusted, Not to be tied with, a Whore and a plaything of unclean people.
Oh Baby you are in so Much trouble.
Thanks to ;;
Timmay
To big to fails
Helicopter wanker nankie
Wars
Lobbists (fuck I hate them)
Whats in it for me Congress
Wall st wally wankers.
and a crowd of a thousand hanger on blood sucking Tossers.
Welcome to HELL come Monday.
You are so Fucked!!!!!
Yep, had Americans any sense whatsoever, they'd divide evenly into two groups and raze both K and Wall streets to the ground, but the destruction to come will have to suffice.
I find it hard to believe that they are that smart. However, I am convined that:
** Obama is a Marxist ideolog who really has no clue what the consequences of his actions are. A college professor and community organizer whose whole life has been spent hating the white man and the white establishment that made him wealthy. Some folks believe he is the illegitimate son of Soros. Perhaps, I will not comment on that. However, he does appear to have been cultivated for this job and has been surrounded with like minded Communists and together they feed off themselves. Their goal is the destruction of the America that has so generously provided for them. Yet they do not see the other side of the grassy knoll. The shape and form of the residue of their destructive actions is unknown. When it's over, he will be much wealthier than even the Clintons who made over $100M in the 8 years after leaving office (see Hillary's financial disclosures).
** Soros is orchestrating the fall of American Supremecy and has not a care in the world for the pain he will cause millions of innocents. That is his life's work.
** The rest of the gang is either delusional or outright criminal. It's diffcult to believe that so many highly educated people can be so stupid. So it is appropriate to deduce from their actions that their motives are other than they appear.
Now that I look back, I realize that a life predicated on being obedient and taking orders is a very comfortable life indeed. Living in such a way reduces to a minimum one's need to think.
Adolf Eichmann
Give me four years to teach the children and the seed I have sown will never be uprooted.
Vladimir Lenin
I once said, "We will bury you," and I got into trouble with it. Of course we will not bury you with a shovel. Your own working class will bury you.
Nikita Khrushchev
It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything.
Joseph Stalin
In a higher phase of communist society... only then can the narrow horizon of bourgeois right be fully left behind and society inscribe on its banners: from each according to his ability, to each according to his needs.
Karl Marx
In America, there's a failure to appreciate Europe's leading role in the world.
Barack Obama
Why can't I junk this clown? His rating triangles don't work...
I believe Khrushchev said: We will BARRY you!
Soros learned his heartless, pitiless tactics from the knee of his Gestapo Masters in WWII Hungary where he helped send his fellow Jews to the camps and stole their silverware without conscious. He has admitted to his lack of integrity and principles in public declaring: "someone else would have stolen the wealth if not him".
Obama may be many things but a Marxist ideologue ain't one of them.... Two thumbs down, but nice work on the quotes...
Theater, yes.
Reading the press release it sounds like it is justifying the creation of the super congress/committee.
S&P downgrades and says the political divide and inability to compromise is responsible. Enter the super congress which is being sold as the answer. This will help with justifying tough speeding cuts while allowing the politicians the ability to blame someone else. If the people don't go for spending cut/tax increases the ratings agencies may "decide" to downgrade again.
@TruthInSunshine
I posted a couple of days ago that the S&P would most likely follow Moody's and do essentially nothing but put the US on negative watch. But that has been (To me) satisfyingly proven wrong.
I agree with the gist of your post that perhaps this was the plan all along considering the major US ratings agencies have been nothing but mouthpieces for TPTB, but wasn't this also a case of damned if they do and damned if they don't?
More importantly, considering all the pieces that are now in place: 1)Downgrade, 2)Markets down, 3)EU "contagion" 4)Poor outlook
When will Bernanke start pumping up the markets? Have we seen the bottom, or will we see more drastic falls until even those who are the most critical of the Fed start begging for QEiii? I think the printers are running now for Monday's trading, but I have been wrong.
YHC and all others, I agree with much of what you said, but I think you aren't buying into my belief that this is a long term plan and script that they're following. I can't obviously prove this, but if you look at the sequence of events, and consider especially what has happened from about 1971 until today (or if you want to use a shorter chart, 2002 to 2011 works nearly as well), any rational person could literally put the jigsaw pieces together, and see this is clearly intentional.
'71 - off the gold standard. Plaza Accord. Massive takeover by MIC in the 80s (they've only grown since). NAFTA and giving MFN trade status to China in the 80s and early 90s, respectively (under Bush I and Clinton). Dismantling of the U.S. manufacturing base. Growth of the financial services and banking industries (Look at Gramm-Leach-Bliley), growth in the unregulated derivatives market, etc.
Tyranny Is Love nailed it.
He said that this is great for the (unconstitutional, arguably) Congressional Super-Committee which is going to decide how and what to carve up (if anything) in terms of spending.
Isn't this custom made for that group, just as he said? Doesn't this play right into EXACTLY that scenario?
Okay, for those who say "mmmm, maybe not...", wait and see what happens when there's another downgrade, or some more international criticism that is far more robust, and they really tank equity markets and wreak havoc in other ways.
This is all a game to keep the blood of the hosts, the taxpayers, flowing to the parasites, Wall Street and TBTF Banks.
If the deficit does actually get cut, American Taxpayers will PAY MORE and they will GET LESS (less deductions, less incentives, less everything), while The Bernank & Treasury make sure that TBTF Banks and Wall Street get all of that collected taxpayer blood.
They can't do the same old-same old TARP & TALF so soon again (if one asks why, just look the Taibi's piece in Rolling Stone, even if you don't agree with some of what he writes - the what isn't important, it's the identification of the scam that is the point; Taibi called attention to the Train Heist), so they're going to extract two pounds of flesh, in both cuts and increases, from the taxpayers, while continuing to nurse the Financial Complex on sweet nectar (made from taxpayer blood).
Make no mistake: I am first in line to kill fiat based systems, go back to any standard where currency is backed by instrinsic value, get rid of the debt completely (getting rid of the Fed Reserve will help to accomplish this), and get back to an economic system of "just in time payment" (JIT means no debt, either on the part of government or private households, so misallocation and waste of capital is far less severe, and bubbles are avoided, leading to greater price stability as true supply/demand curves dictate price).
But what we have now is true central planning, with the Government and The Federal Reserve subsidizing banking and financial interests, who own the politicians (literally), while imposing more and more hardships, taxes, fees, regulations and confisactory schemes on Main Street, to fund this central planning.
Kill TBTF. End the Federal Reserve. Restore government to its limited and rightful role of protecting the sovereignty of the federation while defending the borders of the nation. Government serves it citizens, and should fear them, also, not the inverse, which is where things stand at this moment.
@TruthInSunshine
Many thanks for taking the time for a considered reply. It was a pleasure to read Taibbi's pieces about the flow of money and corporate tax holidays.
I think I recognize your argument from the corporatist idea - A plan to narrow and concentrate power in order to implement more of the same transfer of wealth to TBTF Banks and Wall St. While I'm not familiar with JIT payment, I understand the JIT concept in industrial manufacturing and I can see how it could work applied to the economy. Very interesting.
So, more dips ahead in equities, another downgrade, and havoc to facilitate the power transfer to the Super-congress? That's possible. Whatever happens on Monday and in the weeks thereafter, it was enlightening to read your views.
Prego!
Grazie al cazzo!
How do you say, "Thank you S&P" in Italian?
Well it was a good snark
so
Grazie S& P ... cazzo sei femmine.
To save time and bandwidth .. Thank you S&P.... fuck you Bitches
When attacked by a Blood seeking Huge Big Motherfucking Bear you only have to out run your slowest opponent.
I think there is something in that for Everybody.... Don't you????
Wait a second, there ... *I* am that fat guy who will make the second-slowest in the party rich by posting the bear-chase video on you-tube ...
Good question. I'm sure that will be elaborated upon by the talking heads on Sunday.
http://cheezburger.com/View/5056663296
I honestly never thought I would see a rating agency downgrade America under ANY circumstances.
Maybe the guys at S&P will need to be renditioned?
Expect the same Italian mafia that raided the S&P in Milan to pay a visit to the offices in Wall Street!
"I told you not to fock with us, now we have to break your face!"
Or maybe Obama hires some Cubans:
"You foookkk uith mi, yu fukk uith best! Say hello to my little friend"
You eat, You talk for a while, you relax, you make them relax, Then you get up and you go take a leak. No - better still... You ask permission to go.
You eat, You talk for a while, you relax, you make them relax, Then you get up and you go take a leak. No - better still... You ask permission to go.
badda-bing
"Why does S&P hate America?"
That perspective is one of the primary problems -- hating the federal government has nothing to do with hating America.
Yeah, I think the same thing when they talk of the president "running the country". ummm, he runs the govt, not the country
S & P joins China's rating agency in saying, "The Emperor has no Clothes".
Hasten the Collapse, OBAMA 2012
Why does anybody NOT hate America?
You're point is so well made by the flight of people out of the US.......oh, wait, the masses are trying to get in the US, not out? Never mind.
Better question is "why does anybody NOT hate the federal government?"
Nah. The markets have all weekend to digest this news. I wouldn't be shocked to see a rally from relief that it was such a tepid statement that accompanied the downgrade.
S&P was very generous since we are at tipping point of being unable to pay back debt and instead of
reversing course Obama just yelled "FULL SPEED AHEAD" We are on fast track path to default, so rating should be D.
No kidding. If they included unfunded shit, the 30yr would be rated lower than toilet paper.
Just remember that the clowns responsible for destroying "the full faith and credit" of the Unitied States are the investment managers of your family's future.
Consider also that they are now your health and medical care managers as well.
If you dont think this is a big deal turn on RT news...they are calling it AAA-RMEGGEDON.LOL!
This is better than viagra and a $10,000 hooker to George Soros.
what is this?
an automatic tweet feed?
There are no $10k hookers....only $10k 'campaign donors'.
The US is on a fast track of becoming a third world nation.
Complete with a powerful oligarchic elite living in beautiful mansions, behind high walls manned with people holding submachine guns.
Mortar fire negates high walls! Just Saying!!
You can send some nasty stuff over the wall hanging from a modle chopper...
Just sayin......
Or just use a National Guard Tanks to knock holes in the walls and then take the building down within.
@Crisismode
Joe LaVorgna or Cramer or some other bulltard dumbass will surely find a reason to buy equities through all of this. Forget the "riskless" asset that was the Long Bond, buy more Apple, Netflix and Pets.com!
You mean like this guy?
http://blogs.forbes.com/steveschaefer/2011/08/05/sp-cuts-u-s-debt-should-you-care-the-fed-doesnt/
And the Qoute of the night.....
Setrakian’s point is that the market’s view on U.S. debt – the 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.57% Friday despite the concern about a downgrade – is that Uncle Sam will be able to repay the money it borrows. That repayment may come in devalued dollars, but it will come, so worry over the matter is academic.
I wish I could post pictures, but since I can't:
http://globetribune.info/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/100_trillion_dollar_...
@Worker Bee
Thanks for the link.
We've been told that the FRB is independent of the USG, so another blatant lie is being exposed: It's the Treserve, not the Treasury and the FRB. Honestly, the problems in Europe probably outweigh the problems in America and the Euro will be the first to die. Thus, the USD will rally and bonds should rally alongside the USD. But hard assets should outlast any fiat currency for the foreseeable future. My investing thesis? Get long stuff, not fiat.
The USA is not that special. Even the Romans printed their way into poverty and collapse.
The Sovjet Ruble was the reserve currency inside the USSR and it's sattelites; millions died when the USSR collapsed, the Ruble lost 98% of its value and nobody wanted it because it could not be used to buy anything useful with. Vodka became the transitional currency. The USA is not that different from the USSR - Yes the debt (and pensions, and salaries) were repaid, but with worthless paper that could not be exchanged for goods or services. That glorious US military will just drag the economy down faster when the soldiers start setting up roadblocks to collect their salaries while the officers sell of all the weaponry to crazies and terrorists for good, foreign, money and become oligharks!
PS: Debtors who borrowed and invested in land, industry and political connections made out like bandits, however. With a 98% drop in the value of the borrowed currency, a small EUR loan goes a long way.
So getting hammered on the sidewalk with a cheap bottle of Gordon's is just transitory? I think I'd rather eat my gold... Gordon's is pretty nasty vodka.