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S&P Futures Down 9, As Gold Kneejerks Over $1890
Nothing surprising in the premarket action with ES open for trading despite Labor Day, down about 9 points at its worst, following weekend concerns of yet another European apocalypse. Elsewhere, gold is enjoying the fact that the only bearish downside is potentially a technically overbought formation and is surging right off the bat passing $1890 on the kneejerk then reconfirming slowly. As a reminder, a nervous Japan arrives on the scene in 2 hours, followed by an insolvent Europe, and no US-based HFT available to rescue the world tomorrow.
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Gold:
Charts via Bloomberg
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A middle finger formation in gold.
Not quite true...gold also currently carries the risk of a very big rally in the US dollar. The only other trade that is as crowded as gold right now is the short dollar trade.
James McShirley's thesis, based on his analysis, is that gold rising > 2% per day calls for a smashdown by TPTB, historically. A 2% and 3% rise without an obligatory beat down of the price of gold would mean TPTB are losing control over the price of gold. And... gold rose 3.22% last trading day, Friday.
I think it was James Turk who said it looked like TPTB were setting up a defense around $1900./oz anyway. Last defense was around $1500/oz and we know how that worked out in the end. This week will be interesting as there are many unstable things that could break, as ZH pointed out.
I think events in Europe might have just left all the CB's behind the curve. They would have liked to hold off on any monetization until gold takes a breather, but it doesn't look like they can. The only thing that can change things is if Germany does an about face on subsidizing the south.
I would not be surprised if, staring into the abyss, the Christian Dems and a few allies decide to make noises about Germany agreeing to a permanent transfer union. But I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't either.
Excellent post gwar5. McShirley's +2% gain = a smackdown in gold makes sense to me, however that figure is likely to change with time, otherwise they will run out of margin hikes. They have to preserve their ammo.
http://splicd.com/i6h8Ic-I7R0/340/355
"turn the machines back on" (cue theme song)(announcer) Another exciting episode of "Everybody look at US" where Timbo and Benbo meet Rambo. Rambo comes to visit the Bimbo twins as they try to print money. When they aren't looking, Rambo pulls out his hatchet, hilarity ensues! Stay tuned!
Happy Libor Day..... Btw, what is interbank looking like?
Looks like the Bernank and his merry bankster cartel won't be taking labor day off...bummer.
The entitled class will act like mad dogs once they realize they can't get their stuff. Things will go feral real quick.
Yeah once the welfare checks stop there are gonna be some angry people in HUD housing everywhere.
lolmao500,@ 18:48,
?????....................
The entitled class will act like mad dogs once they realize they can't get their stuff. Things will go feral real quick.
Are you a tad confused, or did you mean the WELARE class.(and by that, I mean the able bodied, and right minded gamers of the system),not the REAL needy.
If the latter, yes they will as usual burn their shit down first, and if they start spreading outside to the burbs, they will be either beat down, or shot.( by LE ,Mil ,or citizens who will not put up with the crap.
Multiple choice.
Simple as it gets to be.
Green
Welfare classes best not be coming en masse into my town either.
They can burn down their stuff. Don't try burning down mine.
The entitled class includes the welfare class.
The entitled class is almost everyone. People who believe they are entitled to the nice paying job they want. People who believe their are entitled to pensions even if almost paid nothing in it. People who believe they are entitled to a 200k$ house even if they can't afford it. People who believe they are entitled to a nice car.
Americans (and most of the western world) have been living like Kings compared to the rest of the world... when reality sets in, they will act like Kings when they are told by the people that their power has no basis and they must give it back... they will turn violent.
lolmao500, @ 20:57,
I think you sell the American people a bit short.
There is no such thing as entitled( unless you already paid the kitty).
After that, we have the WELFARE folks.(That's the free lunch crowd),most folks who have/had the homes that they bought had to make payments on them.And did, until they could not,or the banksters could not produce hard titles.
The majority walked,sold at a loss, or are hanging on by the teeth still making payments.
Reality is what you make it,contrary to popular belief most people had/have jobs, and life goes on, till it doesn't.
These people are not the violent type,most are woosies,and will go to charities ,relatives, Mama/Daddy's, or the Churches for hand outs.
People with, will help out.............if it goes apeshit,then it won't be the Middle/Upper middle class doing the bad shit.It will be the FEEDERS........................the bottom feeders, the leeches of society.
And, until the Government started doing the 99 week routine, states did not hand out funds for past about 6mos, depending on if you had worked enough quarters to qualify.If you had, you got it, and when it ended, it was over.
People used credit cards to a fault, they know it, they knew it.You think they are going to wreak havoc if they cant get their NEW cars, and Flat screens, and new $300k homes?.What a crock.
They will learn a tough lesson, a lifelong lesson................and if, and when we come out of it, (and we will) hopefully they will never make that mistake again, and pass it along to their kids.
The violence will only come if NOTHING is done to meet just basics, food,shelter, and clothing.
That's why we call them Sheeple.Most have lost the skills,and never had any,or the knowledge of self preservation, and how to live with litttle.
They will not be the problem.................
The people in power are who I fear the most.............and you had better also.
A "king" does not live in trembling fear of the taxman.
Investment bankers and CEOs already act like mad dogs.
QE3 will be announced eventually. gold will hit 2400 no problem.
operation twist first
then qe3
Major USD bids will come through, I think QE3 has already occured (op twist/extended interest rates, increased M2 etc). The most theFED will do is pump billions into the EZ (ala swaps)...but the doomsday trade is upon us. The manical elephant is 100% CHina.
Fix those puts and shorts...We are on.
BRING IT!!!
I hear ya
gotta take my cat to the VET.
chump and X,
Trading never worked for me. Bearings like simple things. Like gold.
Don't have to worry about expirations and timing.
"It's all about the ounces!" <--- via FOFOA
On with the show, good health to you.
shamone MF'ers
what will happen to gold and silver if bernanke doesn't go through with qe3?
cash will be king.
Gold and silver will be just another risk on trade.
I think you left a few things out, heh.
What?
Riots? Death? Destruction? Mutant zombie bikers? An end to your beloved social security? I thought that was a given!
Yeah. The kinds of things that make QE3 a relatively benign scenario.
Bond. James Bond:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E11P2FmC6-A&feature=player_detailpage
@ top,
I agree it is NEVER a bad idea to hold a few months expenses in FRNs.
Even though I am a BIG gold fan, I choose not to stay at the All Inn. Risky as well.
ben SHO'NUFF d'bernank has no choice, QE squared. he's got something REAL for our asses in his printing press... bails and bails of fiat...keep your heads down, boys, and keep your asses lower then your heads.....
Exactly what is happening now. They will continue to kick the can and gold and silver will continue their slow melt up. Nothing will happen to gold and silver except continued manipulation, and we have all seen the limits to manipulation. The May attack and the recent attack ended with gold and silver right back to trend, only the manipulators are facing a more determined bull with each major foray into price suppression.
The USG is susisting on zero interest rates and monitization policies. It has an unsustainable debt load and absolutely no political will to change anything. Not that changing things at this late date would do the trick. This goes double for Europe and Asia. The collapse is inevitable and accounting tricks cannot prevent it. QE3 or no QE3, gold and silver will continue to go up in price.
However, accounting tricks have been very effective in kicking the can, and that has allowed the central banks to buy up cheap gold. The longer they can do so, the better the chance they can move us smoothly to a new monetary system without the chaos that could cause. I think that is what that GS criminal was really referring to when he said GS was doing "God's Work." In their minds, they are saving the world.
I view physical gold (and silver) as the only safe and profitable trade available today, no matter what happens. In this environment, everything else, real estate, bonds, commodites, and stocks are just gambling.
dp
Gold easily up to $2400 by the holidays; unless the market crash occurs. 50:50 proposition at this point.
Looks like bonds are going into Outer Space, 30-yr. at 3.3%, wow.
Gold and silver now being sold off from the highs along with ES, New Zealand 50, and everything else.
The mighty U.S. Dollar and Uncle Gorilla Notes are the only safe havens tonight.
The USA really has the advantage right now. We could run trillion dollar deficits indefinitely if we could just get the people to understand.
The rest of the world has decided they will pay tribute to America indefinitely rather than face collapse. The price they are willing to pay for gorilla notes tells us so.
Funny how most people in the world prefer to pay tribute to the hegemon by letting us run the world currency rather than face endless torture and misery with an inflexible currency (gold).
It is remarkable that people still play in front of the steam roller, but some of these funds are required to be in the asset classes they are in. Everything they are doing is just buying time. The rest of the world is going along with the Fed and ECB game of kicking the can and buying gold. We cannot run trillion dollar deficits indefinitely and they know it. They can't make the old system work, they just have to buy time to institute a new system. They could never have gotten the world's governments and central banks to go along with this abortion if there wasn't a long term game plan, and that plan is gold. That's the only long term action being taken today.
Gold and silver are selling off huh? Which charts are you looking at?
Assclown.
More like Stephen King's It.
take the other side
of that trade..
long silver
WTF you looking at?
I taped a chart from mid '99 over his monitor as a prank. Don't tell him.
Yes. You're doing well, Robot Trader. Gold and Silver will end the week lower than they are now. Gold in particular just failed a double top, which is fatal for the metals market; speaking in short term trading terms of course. It's amazing how fucked up a person's mind can get just listening to the ignorant rubbish on one polarized blog; like this one, for instance.
IQ (less),
I'm sure RobotTrader is very impressed with your pat on the head. Thanks for the tip, a "head and shoulders", we'll all have to look that one up.
Now run along with your trading books and go out and play with the other egg heads who trade what used to work rather than waste your time with "ignorant rubbish on one polarized blog; like this one, for instance."
If you need another injection of security, don't hesitate to come right back and demonstrate what you consider as an above average intelligence so you can be adored by the "ignorant."
Any chance the government will stop spending? Nope - just buy Gold.
There it is. And hold on to it! Long ride ahead, long ride UP with a few manipulations down.
.gov will not cut spending without HUGE and obvious changes.
Absolutely,
Not only that, but once a significant portion of your economy IS the government, including a large portion of your work force, you are damned if you do, and damned if you don't when it comes to spending. We are way past the point of no return, and the only answer they have is to push the reset button somewhere down the road.
Any chance the government will stop spending? Nope - just buy Gold.
Forward skew in gold is usually a bitch but a blessing at these levels, with another 'volatility-related' margin hike due any day now
CME will raise margins due to the vol. That will be a great entry point.
Even that donkey steve cortes on fast money has gone long gold-- so obviously there are some weak longs that need shaking out,
CME will raise margins due to the vol. That will be a great entry point.
Even that donkey steve cortes on fast money has gone long gold-- so obviously there are some weak longs that need shaking out,
Yes, it does seem like there are some weak hands that need their gold shaken out of.
Bring the price down so I can buy more ounces. Go ahead! A-OK with me!
I agree that they will try to defend the $1900 level, so another margin hike is probable. If you are a pitcher, you don't wait for a 3-2 count to come back with your money pitch, you get the out before your back is to the cliff. The central bankers cannot allow $2k gold yet.
I have suggested for a long time that Japan is our future. I am not sure Bernanke has the balls to monetize the world
i still believe the simplified model of this a plaza accord for the chinese. change you can't beleive in.
Having seen the results of the first plaza accord I don't think the Chinese will be to keen to sign.
down dont mean sheet. its only sunday. a lot can happen between now and 9 30 am tuesday morning
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/
House prices down as gold soars higher.
When I can get a decent house for 10 oz of gold I'll be the first one to let some of my stack go. FWIW my parents bought a three story house with 7 bedrooms and a finished basment on a double lot for $20,000 in 1963. It could happen.
"no foreclosure process initiated"
Bah.
Wow, this hyperstagflationary depression is ahead of schedule.
Stagflation Palooza......aka, Boondoggleization.
A hyperstagflationary depression crack-up-boom.
Often results from excessive boondoggleization.
Green for creative use of the English language!
.
cant get these banker goons over my good friend Silver's back. somebody help please. that gold silver ratio is widening toooo much for me to be comfortable!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Is anybody long Euro? Seems like short Euro is getting too popular. Squeeze coming? Anyone?
soon. not yet. Let it get a little crazier. I always pull the trigger too soon.
On HFT's: if the EUR goes through supports, you can bet S&P futures will ping pong into a flash crash. That French butnut half ass seduction of Merkel is about to turn into a nightmare (Germany voter backlash). I love history...
Gold will crumble below $1000 soon. It's 50% over valued.
Also known as a bald assumption.
If you're still here in 90 days, I will look forward to shoving this comment right up your foolish ass.
LOL Marker
I bet he made that same comment last year, and the year before too.
why?
@ theotheri
Please do tell us your reasons for that. We're all ears.
<sound of crickets>
1. Gold appreciation exponentially has outpaced the growth in M3.
2. US will tame deficits and debt will stabilize thou not drop
3. World still views US as the most stable democracy for valid resasons and Greenback will stay reserve currency indefinitely and DXY will bottom shortly.
Gold costs $800/oz to produce.
I agree it's a hedge against inflation though transaction costs and the bid/ask for physical probably squires major movement to break even, similar to buying a house.
Gold at $1000 makes sense today.
Because Bob Prechter says so?
I'm starting a newsletter everybody. Just send me $89 a month and I will predict armageddon and put you all in treasuries, while completely ignoring the failed efforts to manipulate gold downward. Don't bother with all those messy extensions, zig zags, and other excuses, I'll handle it.
Good luck with that trade theotheri.
black tuesday
With the pop up ads and banner ads increasing exponentially.
Its the birth rate. technically if everyone stopped having babies tomorrow, in a single generation (about 80-90 years) the population would be near zero. Not that that will or should happen. I'm just saying.
80-90 years is a life span, not a generation. A generation is 20-25 years. Not sure where you're going with the comment, but there is a significant difference between a generation and a life span.
I saw that movie, too.
Michael Caine's cool.
"Gold will crumble below $1000 soon. It's 50% over valued."
And the stock market will soar, and Europe will discover a magic formula that will erase the debt and share it with the US, and and blah, blah, blah,,,
By Christmas Gold will be over $2500, and that''s conservative because gold is MONEY. SILVER Too!!!!
"Gold will crumble below $1000 soon. It's 50% over valued."
And the stock market will soar, and Europe will discover a magic formula that will erase the debt and share it with the US, and and blah, blah, blah,,,
By Christmas Gold will be over $2500, and that''s conservative because gold is MONEY. SILVER Too!!!!
Life is a risk, period.............................ALL the time.
Gold and oil now under pressure as ES gets brutalized. Everything getting throw out the window.
Robo, what the hell are you blabbering about ? Gold is down $8, and silver is down 23 cents. Do you know anything about precious metals ???
Even a 2% swing under these market conditions is just noise. I couldn't care less if gold is down $25, let alone $8. The definition of noise has changed for everyone, except for the gold haters, they see a bubble popping every day for the last decade.
Your mommy must have dropped you on your head when you were a baby... serveral times.
Geez Robo, here I've been defending you now and then.
You've made some decent calls in the evil snakepit that is the stock market, but gold is being thrown out the window, really?
Zoom your chart out... all the way to 5 minute increments... go on, you can do it... what do you see? I'll take a severe ass-whipping like that any day of the week, with a big smile on my face.
There is still time to get ready for the rocky future ahead. Less time than when I came onboard ZH some two years ago.
Buy gold.
Then buy silver, food, water treatment equipment, guns & ammo, medical preps and medications. LOTS to do. Get going. Keep going.
If Greece hard defaults, gold up
If Greece soft defaults, gold up
If the ECB monetizes, gold up
If the Fed bails out Europe, gold up
If QE3, gold up
If no QE3, gold still up
If continued stagnation, gold up
If riots, gold up
Don't just go down fighting, short this BS Keynesian economy and build up your savings while everybody else is losing theirs.
http://how-to-trade-armageddon.com/2011/09/04/playing-greek-chicken/
Then if it gets as nasty as rajat says, I guess you can buy a bunch of surplus military gear and go hole up in Montana or wherever suits you. Though frankly I'm skeptical of the mad max stuff. I've seen economic collapse with my own eyes out in the ex-USSR, and it was truly terrible, but not a mad max scene.
how to trade@ 21:02,
< Then if it gets as nasty as rajat says, I guess you can buy a bunch of surplus military gear and go hole up in Montana or wherever suits you. >
Dude, if it gets as bad as rajat says here, your plan sucks.Because it will be long gone( most already is).
But, trust me, I am not losing any money...................
@How to trade: You are a subject matter expert. I tried to educate myself about the post Soviet period, and there was a lot worth learning. One take away I found interesting was the repeated pension reforms that were too little, too late. I recall one period during which the average pension was 2200 rubles a year, but the subsistence level was 2700. Any comments you'd like to lob into the conversation, at any time, would be greatly appreciated.
Do,
Bro, if these dudes(esp the regs here) are not ready, then it's their own damn fault.
I have been prepared for potential violence end of it since '94.The Clinton years millions prepared........and our current regime head is even a better salesman for the Powder Dry crowd than Clinton was(I know hard to believe).
The supplies over the last 2yrs.Pm's later to the game, but still have more % wise than you, $ wise, maybe another story.
Prepared to go in another 25% if we get a CME hike, and the prices pull back to 1600/1650.
We are already so close to $2k Gold, if your a buyer,may as well be.
@ Dos Zap
Yes, any of the poor ZH-ers who have put up with our harangues who have NOT done any preparation, well they have decided their own fates.
Like others here, I feel like friggin' Cassandra. TWO people I know have gold, they also have to some dgree prepared in other ways as well. The rest, naaah.
When I lived in your state (many moons ago) I started becoming worried about it all (Carter years). I thought I was really out there, because NO ONE bought gold nor thought the system was in any danger.
Gold pulls back, I'll see you in line (virtually anyway) there at the coin shop. Or the gun shop. Or the grocery store.
Hey, and if we some DO get through all of this OK (uh, maybe), then the peace of mind is worth it. I personally think we will NOT get through this OK. I just hope for no mad max, EMP, etc. If the system stays together in Great Depression v. 2, then I will snap up bargains when we get through...
I saved one co-worker in five years of talking about this. He bought into gold and is now a very happy man. The interesting thing is the number of people with expertise wh have listened to my arguments, and then said "yeah, but..." and gone right on and ignored the whole issue. Confirmation bias is a very dangerous issue for investing. It seems like the experts are mostly expert at convincing themselves why conventional thinking is correct. I think you are either born a skeptic who can think for yourself or you are not. The people I'm talking about were all highly intelligent, but they just couldn't free themselves from the Matrix.
Gold $1,890 to $1,876. Must be a margin hike somewhere.
Let's make it a 100% cash market so these games can stop.
You want it, bring the cash.
I could live with that.
Do Chen@ 21:15,
I could live with that.
( Me too, plan on it).
The only thing as previously stated is what happens to the countries leadership, and any OVER reaching response.
That's when I know we will see the reallly bad stuff.Hopefully, we won't have to go there............many will not be back.
But, why concern yourself with it until and if it happens...........(Just make sure your a Boy Scout), amd I know most here are,that are planning on staying.
Gold spike to high 900's if Greece finally is thrown out of the EZ (as a warning to that idiot Italian PM), thinking next few wks. Everything is a mess though.
It feels like a doomsday trade is building, with money printing being ineffective...feels like that. So the USD may be bid if the EUR finally goes.
The markets look confused
Wow, those Asians(esp the Japanese) are dumping real money still................BRING IT DOWN BABY!!!.
Glad I had the good sense to wait till the CME does its thing, and they will.
Just more bang for the buck.
Don't fight it bitchez, just buy gold now. Futures, physical, I don't give a damn as the whole house of cards is about to come down.
Robottrader:
You are a goldbug.. i knew it!!!!
Barbarella, bitchez.
1.40 handle on the EUR gets slammed on EZ equity brutality. Any takers?
then there is Asia...
*0330 GMT [Dow Jones] The HSBC Hong Kong Purchasing Managers Index fell to 47.8 in August from 51.4 in July, the first time the gauge of manufacturing activity has been below the expansionary threshold of 50 in more than two years as demand contracted markedly amid a worsening economic environment,
starting second of three ES legs down...gaps bitchez...
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