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S&P Joins Moody's In Downgrading Hungary To Junk, Outlook Negative - Full Note
On November 25, Moody's cut Hungary to junk. Now it is S&P's turn: "The downgrade reflects our opinion that the predictability and credibility of Hungary's policy framework continues to weaken. We believe this weakening is due, in part, to official actions that, in our opinion, raise questions about the independence of oversight institutions and complicate the operating environment for investors. In our view, this is likely to have a negative impact on investment and fiscal planning, which we believe will continue to weigh on Hungary's medium-term growth prospects. Moreover, in our opinion, the downside risks to Hungary's creditworthiness have also increased as the global and domestic economic environments have weakened."
Full note:
Overview
- In our view, the predictability of Hungary's policy framework continues to weaken, harming Hungary's medium-term growth prospects.
- We are therefore lowering our long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings on Hungary to 'BB+/B' from 'BBB-/A-3' and our long-term counterparty credit rating on the National Bank of Hungary (the central bank) to 'BB+' from 'BBB-'.
- We are also removing all ratings from CreditWatch negative, where they were placed on Nov. 11, 2011.
- We are assigning a recovery rating of '3' to Hungary, which reflects our assessment of "meaningful recovery" of 50%-70% in the event of a sovereign default.
- The negative outlook reflects our view that there is at least a one-in-three possibility of a downgrade over the next year if we see that Hungary's fiscal or external performance deteriorates.
Rating Action
On Dec. 21, 2011, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its long- and short-term foreign- and local-currency sovereign credit ratings on the Republic of Hungary to 'BB+/B' from 'BBB-/A-3'. The outlook is negative. We also removed the ratings from CreditWatch negative, where they were placed on Nov. 11, 2011. We have assigned a recovery rating of '3'. At the same time, we have revised the transfer and convertibility assessment to 'BBB' from 'A-'.
We have also lowered the long-term counterparty credit rating on the National Bank of Hungary (the central bank) to 'BB+' from 'BBB-' and removed the ratings from CreditWatch negative.
Rationale
The downgrade reflects our opinion that the predictability and credibility of Hungary's policy framework continues to weaken. We believe this weakening is due, in part, to official actions that, in our opinion, raise questions about the independence of oversight institutions and complicate the operating environment for investors. In our view, this is likely to have a negative impact on investment and fiscal planning, which we believe will continue to weigh on Hungary's medium-term growth prospects. Moreover, in our opinion, the downside risks to Hungary's creditworthiness have also increased as the global and domestic economic environments have weakened.
In our opinion, changes to the constitution and the functioning of some independent institutions, including the central bank and the constitutional court, have undermined Hungary's institutional effectiveness. Following changes to the process of appointing members of the central bank's monetary policy committee in 2010, the authorities most recently have proposed legislation that we believe could further compromise the central bank's independence. If enacted, such legislation would transfer to the government the power of the bank's governor to appoint the bank's deputy governors. The proposed legislation would also require the bank's board to notify the
government, in advance, of its agendas for meetings, as well as raise the number of members of the rate-setting Monetary Policy Council to nine from seven.
Moreover, we believe that measures taken over the past year, which affect several services sectors, could hinder economic growth by reducing banks' willingness to lend and companies' appetite to invest. In particular, the imposition of temporary tax hikes on various services--including telecoms, energy, and the financial and retail sectors--is likely to depress investment and job creation in the short term, in our view. This could constrain growth prospects at a time when we see risks to the open Hungarian economy are rising due to the uncertain outlook for the global economy. However, we note that following the unilateral move to facilitate households' prepayments of foreign-currency-denominated mortgages at concessional rates, the authorities have subsequently collaborated with the banking sector to share the burden of a redesigned policy aimed at easing the debt-servicing burden on mortgage holders.
In our view, both policymaking and creditworthiness could be bolstered from participation in a multilateral program. In November 2011, the Hungarian government formally approached the IMF and the EU regarding a new financing arrangement; the previous joint program had expired in October 2010 without another program being agreed. Preliminary discussions on a new program were cut short in December 2011, but the authorities have indicated that negotiations are likely to resume in January 2012.
Hungary's current account has shifted into surplus, but we see that external debt net of liquid assets--at an estimated 65% of current account receipts in 2011--remains high. Although we view the stronger external performance positively, we see that Hungary still faces substantial refinancing needs, particularly in the short term as the government begins to amortize its debt to the IMF and EU.
At an anticipated 70% of GDP at end-2011, we consider net general government debt to be high compared with peers, despite the relief, on an accounting basis, provided by the government's decision in late 2010 to direct private pension assets (equivalent to 9.8% of 2010 GDP) into the budget, effectively reversing the pension reform introduced in 1997. The pension transfer, in our opinion, has not improved the overall state of Hungary's public finances, as it has exchanged an explicit liability for an implicit one. Roughly 40% of commercial general government local-currency debt is held by nonresidents. The financial crisis in late 2008 revealed the rapidity with which local currency bonds held by nonresidents can be sold if investor confidence falters, resulting in increased pressure on the balance of payments. In our view, this makes Hungary unusually vulnerable to sudden shifts of capital flows.
Furthermore, an estimated 50% of total general government debt is denominated in foreign currency, which we think makes the debt burden highly sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations. Another potential area of risk is the large share of foreign-currency-denominated loans to the resident private sector, largely to unhedged Hungarian households. The high level of foreign-currency-linked liabilities constrains Hungary's monetary flexibility, in our view.
The ratings are supported by what we view as Hungary's comparatively advanced economy, highly skilled labor force, and relatively well-diversified economic and export structures.
The recovery rating on Hungary's foreign currency debt is '3', indicating our view that post-default recovery would likely be approx. 50%-70%. The recovery analysis assumes a default stemming from a sharp adjustment in the country's exchange rate. Under this hypothetical scenario, the recovery rating is supported by the country's flexible and open economy.
Outlook
The negative outlook reflects our view that there is at least a one-in-three possibility of a further downgrade over the next year if we see that Hungary's fiscal or external performance falters, resulting in increased debt burdens. We believe the Hungarian economy remains vulnerable to external shocks that could, for example, trigger a substantial decline in non-resident holdings of government securities, leading to negative balance sheet effects that would weigh on economic performance--with negative implications for public debt dynamics.
Conversely, if the government were to use its strong majority in parliament to establish policies that encourage investment, while implementing its structural reform program, the Széll Kálmán plan, we expect that the downward pressure on the ratings could dissipate or even reverse.
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Euro to $1.20 is forthcoming.
Are you kidding? This is the most bullish news I've heard all day </sarc>
I just want to get fucking shit faced and play Sabbath videos.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=44dg9n8_BxA&feature=fvst
Without the esposa bitching at me.
Did the alphabets get mixed up ?
Did they skip "F" for France and jump to "H" already ?
Austria is F*cked.
The Other European Housing Crash that has the ECB worriedand
Another Shocker: Hungarian Debt Slaves Revolting against their Austrian Bankster MastersTranslation: Austrian, French, and German banks are holding shitloades of useless RMBS and CMBS.....here comes the tidal wave,just like BSC.
Poor Hungary,
Just because they wont vote on the central bank they are being fucked.
From Reuters:
European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn interrupted informal talks with the Hungarian government as the Commission did not receive assurances about the government's plans regarding its new central bank law, his spokesman said.
"The commission decided to interrupt the preparatory talks in Budapest," Amadeu Altafaj told Reuters over the phone on Friday.
"Unfortunately we did not receive assurances concerning the intentions of the Hungarian government, (which went on) to push forward in parliament the vote of the law that could potentially undermine the independence of the central bank," he said.
Blatant or what....you will vote as we bankers please or be downgraded.
tOKay bitchez !!!
I dated a Hungarian once. There was NOTHING junk about that shit!
You give assholes 650 billion in vertually free money and there is no way the stock market will end down
Woo hoo! Next, Austrian banks exposed to Hungary...
Bullish...
Can Illinois be that far behind?
sunny
Forint to hyperinflate in 3... 2...
A punsters delight.
Hungary for some Junk? Eat My Junk, Hungary. Hungary? In the Moody for some junky wunky....
National Debts going junk, and that too of an actually productive nation....not good at all.
ori
Watch the video for an awesome insight onto the Euro collapse.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPcWHBPYOSU
European music genre of the day ...
Do you like National Socialist Black Metal?
No. Black Metal should be about things that are beyond normal human comprehension, like the omnipotence of evil and the greatness of the dark goat. Not a bunch of racist social claptrap based on resource scarcity.
Lawrence Welk for you?
How did germans realize even through all the propaganda that they were losing the war? Their smashing "victories" kept ocurring in battles closer and closer to home.
This should help u cut thru the financial propaganda too.
Szemét
So man the fuck up now and downgrade the US, UK, Japan, France and Germany before Christmas for the homerun!
When they rate the U.S. debt junk then I will take the agencies seriously.
USTs might be AAA but the dollar will be (is) shit
...buh buh buh but Tim and Ben have a strong dollar policy
Stong as in depleted uranium reinforced printer cartridges with liquid nitrogen cooling systems
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M1
At an anticipated 70% of GDP at end-2011, we consider net general government debt to be high compared with peers,
LOL when the hell will you apply that to the US/UK/Japan???? 70% of debt to GDP is now considered JUNK? LOL
whats their take on GM
http://www.michigancapitolconfidential.com/16192
Two Billion Forint for a plate of Goulash, hurry, hurry...
So if they downgraded them to junk, why do they need outlook negative?
How much worse than junk can you get?
pods
Irradiated junk.
After Irradiated Junk, you got Junk Z, then Junk ZZ and finally, the best out there, Junk ZZZ!
After Junk ZZZ comes Rubble, then Debris, then TDFWYC (The Dust From Which You Came).
at some level, pods must realize that after you get junked you can still get punked...
Can't believe that people within the EU will stand for the ESM. The people of Europe have rocks in their head if they allow the ESM. With the ESM's immunity of prosecution people should be out in the street in masses. The bankers need to be imprisoned by the people for this bold step to take even more power.
this is wonderful!
bankrupt the joint, then re-design the central bank for political control?
like the US?
then?
unh,...a kinder, gentler fascism?
based upon the interests of the people and the common wo/man?
like the US?
remember: the nicest, most glad-handed fascism is the best kind this holiday season and always!
[this has been a public service announcement brought to you by the banksters and politicians; enjoy it! after all, you are paying for it!]
Was adressed to a Mr. Sarkozy, and found its way to Budapest instead.
The return of Soros - once it collapses he will buy the lot. He will do it for God and (to own the) country.
End of year " STUFF", is soooo fun. let's front load options/ Jan 10 for safe keeping?
Mr. Blue Bird says so. ('poof' >>>
that's great where is france? too soon?
way too soon.
Goodnight Irene
Things could get worse and probably will.
In actuallity. I like the PONZI macro trade.
hey Y/C!
till friday?
but, is this the austrian PONZI macro trade? or the keynesian?
who doya like here? santa or kondrarieff? neither?
how'z the shopping coming along?
see you on the beach!
Does China have Moody's, Fitch or S&P on their rearends? If not, why are we bothering talking about Hungry? OK. Nobody put their money there. The goliath is China and nobody better mess with them - according to THEM. So I'm curious if the 3 ratings agencies have the testicular fortitude to even be in there and rating them let alone pull the negative trigger. How many more empty cities are they going to build?
Faszt fekv? kurva árusítása anyja szemét
Tell me which one should be AAA and which one should be junk, A or B
A. Hungary with 70% debt to GDP and 3% deficit to GDP
B. US with 100% debt to GDP and 10 percent deficit to GDP
Seriously...nobody said Goulash bitchez?